0 25 50 75 100 history 230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis ✓ 238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now ✓ 240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months ✓ AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake ✓ 238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) ✓ CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20 ✓ AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o ✓ 240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 ✓ FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna ✓ AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en ✓ 242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission ✓ 244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years ✓ 241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation ✓ 229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne ✓ IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct ✓ SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S ✓ SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil ✓ SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on ✓ 232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti ✓ 241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom ✓ AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓ 234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 ✓ 242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license ✓ 233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra ✓ CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val ✓ 246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers). ✓ 238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) ✓ 247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston ✓ AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using ✓ IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do ✓ AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓ CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la ✓ AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c ✓ CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba ✓ 247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial ✓ 235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). ✓ 245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE ✓ CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o ✓ 246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. ✓ FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain- ✓ ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin ✓ ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU ✓ INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva ✓ INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula ✓ SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f ✓ SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. ✓ INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n ✓ 229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. ✓ 248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. ✓ 248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. ✓ ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence- ✓ CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to ✓ 235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. ✓ SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc ✓ SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f ✓ 237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca ✓ 238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days ✓ 232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. ✓ 241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long ✓ 245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed ✓ SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme ✓ 248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. ✓ SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200 ✓ 229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. ✓ CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re ✓ CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi ✓ CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr ✓ SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate ✓ INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup ✓ INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor ✓ SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. ✓ SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying ✓ SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓ SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu ✓ SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual ✓ 231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. ✗ 231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. ✗ 235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. ✗ 244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years ◐ 239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world ◐ INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol ◐ 232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani ◐ 236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours ◐ SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad ◐ AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey ◐ 238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi ◐ 231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. ◐ CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐ 246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. ◐ AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree ◐ 246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). ◐ 247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently ◐ 245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus ◐ INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn ◐ INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat ◐ 246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. ◐ INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob ◐ SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se ◐ ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar ◐ INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await ◐ SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr ◐ INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive ◐ SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐ SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na ◐ SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u ◐ SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast ◐ SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10 ◐ SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci ◐ CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go ◐ INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — ◐ INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive ◐ SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a ◐ Jan 2026 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2027 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2028 Feb Mar Apr May Jun today pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — OpenAI / Anthropic launches restricted-access tier for top-tier models pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-26 — NVIDIA export controls will get even more aggressive in coming months pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Open-source closes gap on withheld frontier capability within 6-12 months pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Frontier labs' top model gap to public release widens to 6+ months cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Colorado AI Act takes effect (first comprehensive US state AI law) pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-02 — EU AI Act fully applicable; Commission GPAI fines authority kicks in (up to €15M / 3%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-01 — California ADM (automated decision-making) requirements take effect for businesses pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-02 — Pre-existing GPAI models (placed before Aug 2025) must be fully AI Act compliant cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — GPT-5.5 ships with 86% hallucination rate (most-capable model worst-calibrated) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Industry-leader hallucination rate drops below 2% on standard factual benchmarks cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Self-correcting RLHF or constitutional method reduces error rate by 50% vs base cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Agentic AI deployment crosses 17% of enterprises pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — AgentMail-style agent-to-agent email APIs achieve commercial traction cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Enterprise scale problem persists: 70-80% of agentic initiatives don't reach scale cascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Gartner Hype Cycle 2026 places agentic AI past Peak of Inflated Expectations cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major email/comms platforms ship native agent-to-agent protocols cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — DeepSeek-class open or low-cost frontier reasoning at sub-$2 per million tokens pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier reasoning model API price drops below $5 per million output tokens pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Flagship frontier model (Opus / GPT-5.5 Pro / Ultra-class) holds price floor near $30+ per 1M output pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Average industry cost-per-reasoning-task falls >=80% from 2025 baseline cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Physics-based AI simulations operational at military-grade fidelity (WarMatrix) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-15 — AI co-author on peer-reviewed physics paper resolving prior open problem pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-02 — World-model AI demonstrates novel physical-system prediction at SOTA cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2025-01-21 — OpenAI announces $500B Stargate Project (5x stated $100B spend) pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-15 — OpenAI raises $122B Series funding round at ~$852B valuation pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — OpenAI confidential S-1 filing with SEC cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI annualized revenue crosses $30B run-rate cascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-07 — OpenAI IPO pricing/listing at >=$1T valuation cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Terran R static-fire / WDR test campaign at LC-16 Cape Canaveral pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Terran R first launch attempt (per Diamandis '1-2 years away' framing in Feb 2026) pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-31 — First Terran R successful payload-to-orbit cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Voice AI VC investment exceeds $5B annual run-rate pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — 30%+ of weekly AI users primarily use voice as input modality cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-28 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-05 — AI boom will cause severe cascading shortages in memory and GPUs — violently driving hardware prices up across enterpris pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-10 — Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-14 — Memory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconductor growth cycle extending into 2026 ('Memory Wall' dominant pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Amazon Leo crosses 500 satellites in orbit pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Amazon Leo commercial consumer service launches (mid-2026 target) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: Starlink + Amazon Leo together hold >85% of LEO broadband subscribers (duopoly) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Fed delivers first rate cut in current cycle pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Capex on AI/robotics rises while corporate hiring slows pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-14 — Public co. earnings calls cite agent/robot purchases substituting hires pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Humanoid robot unit shipments cross 100K annual run-rate cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-21 — Net hiring vs robot/agent-deployment gap visible in macro data cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Fortune 500 AI-reskilling adoption rate reaches 60%+ of major companies pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Skill-intelligence platforms replace traditional LMS at scale cascade #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — K-12 / university curricula formally pivot to AI-native skills cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-23 — SpaceX public S-1 / prospectus filing on SEC EDGAR pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-11 — SpaceX IPO roadshow begins with retail investor event pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Cascade: SpaceX completes IPO and lists on NYSE/NASDAQ cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — OpenAI IPO target window slips beyond Nov 2026 per CFO statement cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Anthropic files confidential or public S-1 with SEC cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-16 — OpenAI device pre-order or developer program opens pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — First OpenAI consumer device ships to customers cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: smart-glasses / lamp follow-on devices on roadmap for 2028+ cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-15 — Big Four publicly disclose AI agent doing audit work (workpaper generation / variance analysis) pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cumulative Big Four audit-tech headcount reduction >=50% from 2024 baseline pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — PCAOB or SEC publishes guidance on AI-assisted audit reliance cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OASI trust fund exhaustion projection holds at FY2032 pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI displacement layoffs cross 100,000 cumulative since 2024 cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Brookings/IMF/McKinsey publish AI payroll-tax-base shrinkage estimate cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Federal robot/AI tax legislation introduced in Congress cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-30 — OASI trust fund exhaustion accelerated to <FY2030 in Trustees Report pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-07 — SpaceX confidentially files IPO paperwork with SEC (early April 2026) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-07 — SpaceX targets $1.75T-$2T valuation; $75B raise cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-08 — SpaceX road show begins June 8, 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-18 — SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. cascade #3 · pending · 2026-06-23 — The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity. cascade #4 · pending · 2026-08-15 — SpaceX prices and lists shares; first-day open vs offer price cascade #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Largest IPO in history: SpaceX raises >$50B cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI files confidential S-1 with SEC for IPO listing cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Last private secondary or tender at >=$700B post-money valuation cascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — OpenAI announces lead underwriters for IPO cascade #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenAI annualized revenue crosses $30B run-rate cascade #5 · pending · 2026-12-30 — OpenAI prices IPO at >=$1T fully diluted valuation cascade #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: OpenAI listing triggers wave of AI lab IPO filings (Anthropic, xAI, Mistral) pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Major chain (≥3 of top-10) deploys robotic kitchen automation production pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-19 — Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026. pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-16 — First chain announces humanoid robots replacing crew positions in US store pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Fast food labor headcount declines ≥3% YoY in BLS data citing automation cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-19 — Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027 cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector cascade #3 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time cascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-02 — EH216-S debut sightseeing flight in downtown Shanghai (Huangpu River / Longhua Airport) pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026 pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AutoFlight Prosperity 5-passenger eVTOL achieves CAAC airworthiness certification pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Multi-city Chinese eVTOL taxi commercial revenue services operational across ≥3 hubs pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — China launches 100+ commercial low-altitude flight applications under 2024-2027 Action Plan cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Shutterstock-Getty merger receives final UK regulatory approval cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — First major brand campaign uses 100% AI-generated commercial imagery cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Major commercial photography agency announces revenue decline >25% YoY citing AI cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Industry trade group estimates >40% commercial photographer income loss YoY cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — OpenAI lists at >=$60B raise / ~$1T valuation pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-15 — First-day pop documented pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — S-1 lock-up period scheduled (typical 180 days) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-28 — First post-IPO earnings release cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-01 — 6-month post-IPO close vs. offer price (pop measurement window closes) cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Musk publicly affirms $100T SpaceX possibility pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — First trillionaire — Musk net worth crosses $1T pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Multi-trillionaire (>=2 individuals at $1T) — cascade cascade #2 · pending · 2035-07-02 — First $100T market cap company — full prediction realization pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-28 — Major HBCU files Chapter 11 bankruptcy pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Number of US colleges with D-grade financial health exceeds 200 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Multi-college bankruptcy in 2026: at least 8 colleges closed by year-end pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Annual closure count rises to >=25 by 2027 cascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-30 — Demographic cliff produces >=10% undergraduate enrollment decline 2025-2029 cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Teen anxiety/depression rates remain above pre-2020 levels into 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — AAA-rated civil unrest incident count rises ≥20% YoY by mid-2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anger/fear sentiment index (online) crosses 2020 pandemic peak cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Cascade: SAMHSA distress hotline volume up 25%+ YoY cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Global TFR projection updates show below-replacement faster than expected cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-31 — Annual US deepfake-driven losses cross $3B in 2025 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Voice deepfake contact-center attempts grow >1,000% YoY cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Annual AI-driven fraud losses cross $40B globally cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Anthropic discloses MCP/OpenClaw design vulnerability with RCE risk pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Multiple OpenClaw variants/forks emerge with documented vulnerabilities pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Mexican government compromise via Claude Code reveals state-level vulnerability cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Apple admits Mac Mini AI-driven sellout / underestimated demand (Q2 FY26 earnings) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Apple guides Mac mini / Mac Studio constrained for months pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Apple Mac segment revenue beats Wall St estimate driven by AI workloads cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — M5 Mac mini refresh ships in 2026 to address shortage cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Diamandis publishes Moonshots-with-Skippy episode where Skippy demonstrably uses prior episode transcripts pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-23 — Custom GPT / Claude project trained on Moonshots transcript corpus published pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — OpenAI / Anthropic enable persistent memory across conversation sessions for assistants cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Recursive self-improvement demos (DGM/AlphaEvolve) become routine in frontier lab releases cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-26 — ICLR 2026 hosts first-ever Recursive Self-Improvement workshop pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Frontier benchmarks show recursive AI gain of >=10% in <1 month cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Mainstream press declares 'singularity already begun' in 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — Gemini 3 / Claude Opus 4.7 / GPT-5.5 frontier benchmark releases all within 6 months pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-14 — SpaceX (now including xAI) IPO road show begins June 2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Moonshots podcast publishes >2 episodes per week through Q3 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Public sentiment / media usage of 'singularity' language spikes in 2026 cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. pre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-15 — Moonshots podcast announces house/studio relocation (Airbnb or shared compound) pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Moonshots podcast publishes longer-format / continuous content episodes (4+ hour OR daily cadence) pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Co-hosts Salim Ismail and Dave Blundin appear in shared physical setting with Diamandis cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Q3 2026 window check-in: continuous-podcast format established cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: Other Diamandis ventures (Abundance Summit, A360) shift to shared-compound format cascade #3 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #4 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AlphaFold/Isomorphic-style AI lab partnership produces clinical Phase-I trial drug pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-discovered superconductor material independently verified pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier lab discloses >=$10B revenue from a non-chat product (drug discovery / materials / robotics) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI fusion-control breakthrough: ITER-class plasma stability gain attributed to RL pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI's IMO-gold-medal model remains unreleased months after milestone pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier lab publicly admits internal-deployment-only model with significant capability gap vs released models cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI R&D acceleration measurable: lab discloses >=20% productivity gain from internal model use cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Public-vs-internal capability gap formally widens to >=6 months on a major benchmark cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Government / regulator demands disclosure of internal-deployed capabilities pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Figure achieves total China supply-chain decoupling milestone pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Figure announces Abundance Summit 2027 attendance / speaker slot pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-15 — Figure 03 robot demonstrated to Peter Diamandis on stage at Abundance Summit 2027 cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Figure 03 unit confirmed delivered to Diamandis personally cascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Cascade: Figure annual production reaches 12K unit run-rate (initial line cap) cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector cascade #4 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time cascade #6 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-19 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Gartner: 40% of enterprise apps include task-specific AI agents by end-2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Worldwide AI spending crosses $2.5T in 2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Cumulative deployed AI agent count crosses 10 billion (active provisioned) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Active deployed AI agents exceed human population (8B agents) cascade #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — 1 trillion AI agents threshold — Diamandis specific target pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Major analyst report or central-bank speech reframes compute / energy as scarce factor of production pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — US grid interconnect queue or curtailment data shows binding compute-power gap pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Critical-mineral concentration crisis intensifies (rare-earth / cobalt / lithium) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Compute-credits / energy-tokens emerge as observed alternative-currency settlement cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — OECD or IMF working paper measures factor-price shift toward energy/compute cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Industrial 3D printing capex exceeds $25B globally in 2026 pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Molecular manufacturing public demonstration (sub-nanometer assembly) pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Consumer-good marginal cost benchmark (3D-printed shoe/tool) hits sub-$5 pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Mainstream economists adopt 'near-zero marginal cost' framing in 2027 cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Intel 14A process selection finalized pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Tesla AI5 small-batch (engineering sample) production pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First Terafab module groundbreaking / construction start cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — AI5 volume production begins (initial 100k WSPM run-rate) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Path to 1M WSPM / 70% TSMC scale becomes credible (or slips publicly) pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-19 — Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Zoox launches robotaxis in Austin and Miami (own-app expansion) pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Zoox commences mapping / pre-deployment testing fleet in Los Angeles metro pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-16 — Zoox robotaxi service publicly launches in Los Angeles via Uber app (mid-2027) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector cascade #2 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time cascade #4 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. cascade #5 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #1 · hit · 2025-08-28 — Software development job postings down 70%+ from 2022 peak cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-14 — Medical school residency match data shows AI-driven specialty shift cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Law school applicant counts and entry-level associate hiring decline cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Three credit rating agencies issue negative 2026 higher-ed sector outlooks pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Closure pace exceeds 1 institution/week in 2026 (matches 'skyrocketing' framing) cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-14 — USPTO issues revised AI-assisted inventorship guidance pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-26 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Court ruling extends or limits DABUS precedent on AI inventorship pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-assisted patent filings exceed 50% of new applications in software/biotech pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Public report of AI generating 1M+ candidate inventions in single domain pre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · overdue · 2025-09-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · overdue · 2026-02-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Sora 2 / Veo 3.1 / Kling 2.6 ship with audio-video sync (book-ready quality) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Long-form AI video tool (>=10 min coherent narrative) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First commercial 'book-to-movie' AI service launches cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Hollywood/SAG-AFTRA contract addresses AI book adaptations cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Personal video generation crosses 100M monthly active users cascade #5 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-01 — GitHub Copilot transitions to usage-based billing (token-based) pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Top 3 AI coding tools control 70%+ developer market share cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Manual code remains majority practice at end of 2026 — Diamandis falsified cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Manual code authoring drops below 30% of new commits at hyperscalers cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Daily-life agentic-AI usage reaches >=50% of US adults pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major regulatory action (US executive order or major bill) addresses AI labor displacement pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — AI-driven white-collar role displacement crosses 5% of US workforce pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — AI doubles GDP-weighted productivity gain in single calendar year cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-30 — Starcloud reaches unicorn status with $1.1B valuation pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Starcloud-2 launch with Blackwell-class GPU compute cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Second well-funded space data center competitor announces orbital DC plan cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Space-based data center hits 1+ MW operational compute pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — SpaceX 'orbital data center' constellation FCC application reaches public comment milestone cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Starcloud or Sophia Space deploys >=10 H100/H200-class GPUs in commercial orbital cluster cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cumulative VC funding to space-based AI infrastructure startups crosses $2B cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #5 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First space-based AI inference SLA offered to enterprise customers cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-14 — Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Optimus 1M-unit/yr Fremont line in prep cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Tesla AI5 chip enters production for Optimus & robotaxi cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tesla 2026 capex doubles to $20B+ for AI/robotics cascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Competing humanoid players (Figure, 1X) match vertical-integration playbook cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — First grid stress event traced to AI data centers cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-30 — Starcloud raises $170M Series A to build orbital data centers pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · partial · 2026-04-30 — First single company to cross $5T market cap pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla / xAI / SpaceX combined enterprise value crosses $5T pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — SpaceX completes IPO and provides public market-cap anchor cascade #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Optimus / robotaxi commercial revenue ramp validates AI/robotics premium cascade #2 · pending · 2027-04-16 — First single company crosses $10T market cap pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-21 — Musk announces Terafab semiconductor fab (Tesla/xAI/SpaceX joint) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Intel publicly joins Terafab as foundry-manufacturing partner pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Terafab groundbreaking / construction permit filed cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — First Terafab tool installation / wafer test run cascade #2 · pending · 2031-07-02 — Terafab production reaches 100k wafer-starts/month (initial target) cascade #3 · pending · 2033-12-31 — Cascade: Terafab reaches 70% of TSMC output (~1M wspm) — Diamandis claim pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Joby Dubai vertiport network opens, paying-passenger commercial service begins pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Archer Midnight enters FAA Stage 4 certification cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — First US commercial paying-passenger eVTOL flight cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Joby/Archer commercial piloted passenger service launches in major US metro pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — First commercial autonomous eVTOL cargo flight (Q4 2026 controlled corridor) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-01 — First autonomous passenger eVTOL flight (no pilot on board) in commercial use cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: Autonomous eVTOL operations exceed piloted operations in any one US metro cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-16 — SpaceX achieves Starship V3 successful orbital flight with booster catch pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Pad 2 at Starbase Texas comes online enabling higher cadence pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — FAA approves up to 44 Starship-Super Heavy launches annually (already-granted check) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Hyperloop / Boring Company tunnel rail competing project public delay or cancellation cascade #2 · pending · 2027-04-16 — First Starship point-to-point demonstration mission announcement (cargo only) pre #6 · hit · 2025-09-10 — Perseverance Jezero biosignature reported as potentially biological pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-21 — Curiosity rover detects 20+ organic molecules at Glen Torridon pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Astrobiology paper confirms cosmic-ray-driven habitability for Mars/Europa/Enceladus pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Mars Sample Return mission launches cascade #2 · pending · 2030-08-16 — Europa Clipper begins science phase at Jupiter pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Tesla 2026 capex officially raised to $25B+ (board / earnings disclosure aligning with Terafab funding) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Terafab pilot facility produces first AI5 chips (small-batch production) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cumulative Terafab project commitments cross $150B (matching prediction's lower-bound total buildout) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Tesla Cybercab first production VIN rolls off line pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Tesla confirms Cybercab retail price under $30,000 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Waymo publishes per-vehicle build cost figure for Gen 5/6 robotaxi cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Waymo expands fleet beyond 1,500 vehicles or signs >2 city expansion deal cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Tesla launches Cybercab ride-hailing service in pilot city cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-12 — Engineered PETase enzyme paper (Bhattacharya et al.) published in FEBS Journal — highly active polyester degradation pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — PETase/MHETase variant with gut-compatible pH/temperature window (pH 1-7, 37C) demonstrated pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First published in-vivo (animal model) study of orally-delivered plastic-degrading enzyme on microplastic absorption cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Supplement company / startup announces clinical work toward microplastic-degrading oral product pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX files confidential S-1 with SEC at $2T target valuation pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-26 — SpaceX 2025 revenue confirms $15.6B baseline pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-18 — SpaceX S-1 prospectus made public pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-11 — SpaceX IPO roadshow begins week of June 8, 2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-24 — SpaceX prices IPO and begins trading cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. cascade #3 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #6 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Starlink crosses 10M subscribers, tracking $20B revenue in 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX confidentially files for IPO at $2T+ valuation pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Starlink monthly net additions reach 1.5M users (2x 2025 pace) pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Starlink EBITDA margins exceed 60% confirming profitability scale cascade #2 · pending · 2027-04-16 — SpaceX 2026 total revenue lands $22-30B range (above doubling) cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX confidentially files draft S-1 with SEC pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-11 — SpaceX roadshow begins week of June 8, 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-08 — SpaceX IPO prices in $1.75T-$2T range cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Starlink subscriber count crosses 12M cascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — SpaceX market cap crosses $3T post-IPO cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Anthropic files S-1 with SEC cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — OpenAI files S-1 with SEC cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic IPO completes listing cascade #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — OpenAI IPO completes listing cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-01 — AI-IPO retail-demand absorption affecting subsequent listings cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Either OpenAI or Anthropic crosses $1T public-market valuation pre #6 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Anthropic closes $50B / ~$900B-valuation funding round pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI confidential S-1 filing with SEC pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI selects lead underwriters for IPO pre #2 · pending · 2026-10-08 — OpenAI S-1 publicly available; roadshow begins pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-15 — OpenAI begins NYSE/Nasdaq trading by end-2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Anthropic confidential S-1 filing cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX confidentially files S-1 with SEC pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-25 — Polymarket SpaceX June IPO odds >=60% pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-08 — SpaceX public S-1 filing in late April / May 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-25 — ARK Invest SpaceX IPO Guide published with $1.75T+ valuation framework pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — SpaceX road show begins in June 2026 (10-14 day institutional pitch) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-21 — State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-23 — The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity. cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-23 — SpaceX IPO prices and lists on Nasdaq cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-16 — Tesla $2B investment in xAI as Master Plan IV vehicle pre #5 · hit · 2026-01-29 — Bloomberg/Reuters reports Musk weighing SpaceX-Tesla-xAI mega-merger pre #4 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · hit · 2026-02-03 — SpaceX-xAI merger closed at $1.25T combined valuation pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · hit · 2026-05-01 — $573M+ web of related-party transactions disclosed in Tesla 10-K cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Tesla-SpaceX or Tesla-xAI formal merger agreement signed cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-28 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-31 — RS-25 engines ship from Stennis to KSC for Artemis III core stage integration pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-09 — SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Artemis III SLS core stage fully integrated in VAB pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Starship HLS or Blue Moon flight-ready demonstrator on orbit cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Artemis 3 launches in 2027 target window cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). cascade #6 · pending · 2030-07-05 — Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a few years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-15 — Intel 18A yield disclosure at or above 65% commercial threshold pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — Terafab Phase 1 groundbreaking or site selection finalized in Austin TX pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Intel external foundry revenue run-rate visibility above $1B annualized cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Tesla AI6 chip first tape-out at Intel 18A cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #3 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Intel external foundry revenue exceeds $4B annualized (Diamandis target validated) cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-09 — Bernstein / external analysts publish capex feasibility critique (~$5T to hit 1 TW) pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-23 — Tesla picks Intel 14A process for Austin Terafab pilot AI5 chip pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Austin Terafab pilot fab achieves first wafer-out (small-batch AI5 production) pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Terafab reaches initial 100K wafer-starts/month capacity milestone pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Sam Altman / Dario Amodei / Demis Hassabis publicly endorse zero-marginal-cost framing pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Cost-of-intelligence per token falls 10x year-over-year pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Mainstream-economist counter-argument published (Krugman / Acemoglu / Summers) pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major AI service rolls out free unlimited tier to >100M users cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Energy / compute scarcity contradicts 'zero marginal cost' narrative cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · partial · 2026-04-25 — Mixed evaluation: Tom's Guide / blind testing shows Claude Opus 4.7 still wins broader categories pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic ships Claude Opus 4.8 / 5.0 reclaiming benchmark lead cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX confidentially files S-1 for IPO including xAI pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-05-16 — Combined entity loss of $5B reported, raising IPO execution risk pre #2 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — SpaceX-xAI combined IPO targets $1.75T-$2T valuation in summer 2026 listing pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Anthropic ARR reaches $30B (already passed by April 2026) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-07 — Anthropic ARR reaches $50B run-rate by end of Q3 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Claude API/enterprise pricing or usage volume holds growth slope through H2 2026 cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-01 — Anthropic discloses $100B ARR by end of December 2026 cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Cascade: Anthropic IPO files S-1 or completes listing in Q4 2026 / Q1 2027 cascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Cascade: Anthropic 2027 revenue forecast revised upward toward $200B+ cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Claude Code annualized revenue exceeds $2.5B pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Anthropic ARR crosses $30B and surpasses OpenAI pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic ARR reaches $100B (interim milestone toward $1T) pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Anthropic ARR reaches $1T by EOY 2027 (target) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: Anthropic IPO or tender offer at $1T+ valuation pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — GPT-6 (or successor) public availability or research preview pre #2 · pending · 2027-04-01 — First peer-reviewed scientific discovery primarily authored or driven by GPT-6-class model pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Pharma or materials company attributes >$1B value to AI-discovered candidate cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Public valuation marker for AI-science breakthrough cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2025-06-30 — Insilico Medicine Phase IIa positive results (TNIK inhibitor for IPF) pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-01 — Industry analyst report confirms 80-90% AI-drug Phase 1 success rate pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First AI-designed drug enters Phase III pivotal trial cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Isomorphic Labs first IsoDDE molecule enters clinical trials cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #4 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. cascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-19 — Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027 cascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector cascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Hyperscaler 2026 capex aggregates exceed $700B annualized pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Microsoft single-quarter capex breaks $30B with AI revenue past $37B run-rate pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Meta raises full-year 2026 capex guidance to $125B+ cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Aggregate global AI investment crosses $1.1T annualized run-rate (~$3B/day) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Capex acceleration triggers credit-market stress event in IG-rated tech issuance cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Hyperscaler AI traffic capex includes net-new bandwidth/spectrum line item pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Starlink/Kuiper announce robot/AV-class connectivity tier cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production start signals demand validation for connected humanoids cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cellular IoT module shipments for robotics/AV cross 100M annualized cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. cascade #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Spectrum policy: FCC or peer regulator allocates net-new AI-machine-class spectrum cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 pre #6 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Maine House sustains Mills' veto — moratorium dies; thesis premise (statewide moratorium gives time) invalidated pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Maine Data Center Advisory Council established by EO (replaces moratorium pathway) pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-15 — SpaceX Starcloud-2 launch with multi-GPU (Blackwell) orbital compute payload pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-15 — Other state passes data-center moratorium or significant siting restriction (substitution test) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. pre #6 · hit · 2026-05-01 — AI agent registers EIN, opens bank account, and operates as autonomous corporation pre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — First single-founder company achieves $1B annualized revenue pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI-operated company crosses $1B valuation with no human CEO pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Blue Moon MK1 cargo soft-lands near Shackleton Crater pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Blue Origin lands Shackleton cargo BEFORE SpaceX (Diamandis prediction holds) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — SpaceX Starship lunar lander HLS demo flight (Artemis III prep) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-30 — SpaceX Starship V3 reaches stable Earth orbit (precondition for tanker demo) pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — First two-Starship orbital propellant transfer demonstration: target + chaser docking pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Multi-tanker depot architecture demonstrated (≥3 sequential propellant fills) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — NASA Artemis HLS depot operations declared 'mission-ready' (10-tanker architecture) target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift 89 plotted · 30 outside x-range · click any dot for detail
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.