Timeline Fan

42 of 42 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

Filter by ticker

Click a symbol to scope to claims affecting that company

IBM 74 CRWV 72 AMZN 42 GOOGL 42 GTLB 42 META 42 MSFT 42 BABA 40 AI 38 BBAI 38 NVDA 38 ORCL 38 SOUN 38 CORZ 37

Filters

Fork by

Off (single timeline)$1T+ IPO AGI AI pause ASI Mars uncrewed Recession Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)

Tradeable only

Yes (≥1 ticker, default)No (all predictions)

Window

next 12 mo next 24 mo next 5 yr (default)5y + tail

Resolved

Hide (default — live forecasts only)Include Resolved only

Top predictors

All Alex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)

42 plotted · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to GTLB.

GTLB-impacting (4)

241_051

ACN · AI · AMD · AMZN

AI systems eventually won't have the ability to do completely new things

55% → 38% · resolves 2026-06

-17pp

241_038

ACN · AI · AMZN · BABA

Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centered

60% → 43% · resolves 2026-06

-17pp

241_041

ACN · AI · AMD · AMZN

Biological and nuclear attacks spawned by AI are real dangers

55% → 39% · resolves 2026-06

-16pp

238_048

ACN · AI · AMD · AMZN

US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt)

60% → 45% · resolves 2032-11

-15pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)

AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum

Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.