Timeline Fan

151 of 151 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

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Top predictors
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)
0255075100history230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis✓238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now✓240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months✓AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake✓238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)✓CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20✓AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o✓240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027✓FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna✓AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en✓242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission✓244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years✓241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation✓229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne✓IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct✓SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S✓SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil✓SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on✓232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti✓241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom✓AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026✓242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license✓233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra✓CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val✓246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers).✓238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if)✓247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston✓AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using✓IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do✓AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la✓AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c✓CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba✓247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial✓235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).✓245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE✓CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o✓246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.✓FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-✓ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin✓ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU✓INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva✓INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula✓SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f✓SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.✓INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n✓229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.✓248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.✓248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.✓ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence-✓CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to✓235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.✓SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc✓SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f✓237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca✓238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days✓232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.✓241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long✓245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed✓SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme✓248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.✓SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200✓229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.✓CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re✓CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi✓CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr✓SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate✓INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup✓INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor✓SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.✓SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying✓SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu✓SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual✓231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.✗231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.✗235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.✗244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years◐239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world◐INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol◐232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani◐236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours◐SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad◐AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey◐238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi◐231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.◐CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.◐AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree◐246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).◐247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently◐245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus◐INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn◐INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat◐246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.◐INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob◐SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se◐ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar◐INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await◐SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr◐INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive◐SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na◐SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u◐SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast◐SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10◐SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci◐CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go◐INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 —◐INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive◐SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a◐Jan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2027FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2028FebMarAprMayJuntodaypre #6 · hit · 2026-01-30 — Amodei refines prediction to 70-80% probabilitypre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Medvi documented at $401M revenue with 2-person teampre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — First publicly named AI-CEO billion-dollar company with human-puppet structurecascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Multiple solopreneurs cross $100M ARR with team <5cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Major lab releases models on weekly cadence in 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — API-level model versioning shifts to daily release notescascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Continuous training / online learning becomes default for frontier modelscascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Hourly cadence: 24+ named releases in one calendar day from a single labcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-23 — AlphaEvolve-style autonomous algorithm discovery system deployed inside frontier labpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Anthropic / OpenAI / Google publish 'recursive self-improvement' framing in official communicationscascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic reports >50% software-development speed gain from coding agentscascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI ships intern-level AI research agent (writing code, generating training data)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier labs grow effective AI 'workforce' to tens of thousands of agentic instancescascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — QWERTY remains default keyboard layout in iOS/Android/Windows 11/macOScascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Voice typing adoption % of total text input on smartphonescascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Brain-computer interface text input crosses 10K daily userscascade #4 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Major OS ships AI-native input mode as default replacing keyboardcascade #5 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Hardware keyboard sales decline >50% YoYcascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Responsible Scaling Policy revised — removes commitment to halt on serious riskpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Anthropic discloses Claude writes 70-90% of own training code (recursive self-improvement signal)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Anthropic Institute publishes recursive-self-improvement governance frameworkcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier model training run exceeds 1e27 FLOPs at Anthropic before competitorscascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Frontier-lab production system explicitly markets multi-agent scaling as scaling axispre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major benchmark improvement attributable to parallel-agent scaling (>=10% gain)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Multi-agent scaling appears in major industry survey (Stanford AI Index, Epoch AI) as a named scaling axiscascade #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cascade: Capex / R&D budget shift toward orchestration/coordination infrastructurecascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier AI demonstrates measurable scientific research contribution in physics or chemistrypre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier model scores >=85% on graduate-level physics and chemistry benchmarks (GPQA Diamond)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Wavefront spreads to biology / biomedical: AI co-authors notable drug-discovery or protein-design resultcascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — By 2027 mid-year, frontier AI surpasses human expert performance on majority of STEM olympiad-level domainscascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-06-18 — The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity.pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-28 — Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control.pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-18 — By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI demonstrates novel physics derivation in peer-reviewed venuepre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI system formally verifies a Fields-Medal-class open math conjecturepre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI-driven biology lab autonomously completes wet-lab discovery cyclecascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-02-12 — Cursor or competitor ships permissionless long-running agents in research previewpre #5 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Claude Code Auto Mode launches with classifier-based approval delegationpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — METR autonomy time horizon doubles in 2026 H1cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anthropic moves Auto Mode out of research preview to GAcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major incident from permissionless agent autonomycascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-02-05 — OpenAI launches Frontier agent platform for enterprisespre #5 · hit · 2026-04-01 — AWS launches autonomous frontier agents for security and opspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Anthropic ships persistent Claude agent product (24/7 capable)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Google DeepMind/Gemini ships enterprise 24/7 agent offeringcascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Mistral / xAI / Meta ships frontier 24/7 agent offeringcascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: agentic SaaS replaces human-in-the-loop in CRM/ERPcascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2025-07-19 — Frontier model achieves IMO gold-medal level on official problemspre #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Anthropic / OpenAI / DeepMind publish dedicated 'AI for physics' research programpre #2 · pending · 2026-11-15 — AI co-author on physics result honored by major prize / Nature coverpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Open problem in theoretical physics resolved by AI (yes-or-no benchmark)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Antivirus / EDR vendor launches AI-agent-monitoring productpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Government 'defense agent' or AI-monitoring program fundedcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — First open-source globally distributed RL training run of >=100B parameter model completes successfullypre #4 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Non-US sovereign nation announces national AI training compute initiative (>=10K H100-equivalent GPUs) outside Five Eyespre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Major geopolitical commentator or government white paper explicitly frames training-vs-inference centralization as a strpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Open-source model trained on heterogeneous federated GPU pool reaches GPT-4-class performance on standardized evalpre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — First retrospective op-ed by major AI policy figure asks 'why was training so centralized'cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-10-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Mistral ARR crosses $1B annual run-ratepre #4 · pending · 2027-04-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-11 — Mistral launches consumer/enterprise vertically-integrated stack (model + cloud + apps)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: Mistral valued >=€30B in next funding round, Europe's first AI decacorn at OpenAI scalepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Pentagon issues amended supply-chain-risk determination on Anthropicpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-22 — Anthropic announces revised DoD-acceptable usage policy or Claude Mythos govt-tierpre #1 · partial · 2026-04-30 — Court ruling in Anthropic v. Trump administration (March 2026 lawsuit)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Anthropic re-included in classified-network or DoD prototype contractcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Permanent two-track regime: Anthropic on commercial side, OpenAI/Google on DoDcascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-11-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Pure-play AI vendor (Cohere/Mistral/Perplexity) revenue stays <$35B aggregate 2026pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Enterprise AI revenue exceeds consumer AI revenue 3:1 across hyperscalerspre #3 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI capex-to-revenue ratio compresses or hyperscaler stock multiple resetspre #1 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — OpenAI releases GPT-5.5 codenamed 'Spud' (first ground-up retrain)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — GPT-5.5 Pro available in API with measurable benchmark gainspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — GPT-5.5 daily active users surpass 1B in ChatGPTcascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — GPT-6 or equivalent next-base announced by OpenAIcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-15 — Recursive Superintelligence startup funding signalpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Cascade: AI capability gains compress to <60-day cyclescascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-29 — OSWorld leader exceeds human baseline by 10pppre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Multimodal vision/humor capability matches human-grader pass ratecascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major rent-a-human platform deprecates humor/visual scoring taskscascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Human-as-graders gig economy contracts >30% YoYcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-19 — VITARI pre-orders open H1 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — First VITARI commercial shipment in H2 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Independent customer benchmarks confirm $100/genome at >=Q30 90%cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Stimson/Time Top-10 Global Risks for 2026 confirms multiple civilizational disruption vectorspre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — PRC Taiwan-readiness deadline reaffirmed for 2027pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — AI-enabled disinformation campaign against Taiwan election documented at state-actor scalepre #2 · pending · 2027-12-01 — >=1 major civilizational shock resolves in 2027-2028 window (kinetic, AI-political, financial)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-01 — Taiwan kinetic conflict or quarantine eventcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-11 — Anthropic Opus 4.6+ discloses 500+ zero-days in OSS librariescascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — OSSF/CNCF publishes formal AI-SLOP best practices for OSS maintainerscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Open source vulnerabilities exceed 1,000 per codebase averagecascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major OSS project (Linux kernel/OpenSSL/Python) declares maintainer crisiscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anthropic/OpenAI ship general-purpose agentic 'planner' product to consumerscascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Enterprise AI 'meeting orchestrator' enters general availabilitycascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major dating-app integrates LLM-driven match orchestrationcascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-mediated introductions surface in published user researchcascade #5 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anthropic ships built-in tool-use / native MCP-like capability in baseline Claudecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI deprecates or downgrades the third-party GPT/plugin marketplacecascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major model release ships with tools that subsume top-N marketplace appscascade #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Plugin developer ecosystem revenue declines or consolidatescascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Open-weights 30-40B model matches GPT-5 on aggregated benchmarkspre #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Sub-10B parameter model achieves prior-frontier (GPT-4 class) performancepre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier-quality 1-2B parameter model demonstratedcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-22 — Million-parameter narrow-domain model matches frontier in verticalcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Apple WWDC 2026 keynote scheduled and confirmedpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-10 — WWDC 2026 keynote demos AI-powered Siri or 'Apple Intelligence v2' powered by Geminipre #1 · pending · 2026-06-11 — iOS 27 developer beta with new Siri / Gemini features ships at WWDCcascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Cascade: Public Siri/Gemini release ships in iOS 27 GA in September 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Apple's Gemini-Siri reaches >100M users active in first quarter post-releasecascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Frontier paper proposes unified AR + diffusion architecturepre #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Production model ships with hybrid AR-diffusion stackpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Benchmark superiority of unified model on multimodal taskscascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Open-source unified architecture release (HF/Meta-style)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-14 — First major economist publishes AI-driven hyperinflation frameworkpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US M2 / debt monetization signal — fiscal dominance proxypre #4 · pending · 2027-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI-driven structural disinflation — opposite outcome (negation watch)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — US headline CPI exceeds 8% sustained for 12+ monthspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Claude Code/agent specialty variants (PicoClaude, IronClaude analogues) shipcascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Multiple new agent variants launch in H1 2026 (Operator, Mariner, Claude Code, etc.)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Open-source agent framework forks exceed 50 active GitHub projectscascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Enterprise agent revenue growth signals real PMF (vs hype)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Agent platform consolidation begins (M&A or shutdown of variants)cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Major code-gen model benchmark publishes TS-vs-Rust generation pass-ratespre #3 · pending · 2026-09-14 — Major framework or runtime announces TS-first agent SDKpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Public commentary thread (Karpathy/Sutskever/etc.) endorses TS directionpre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Stack Overflow / GitHub language usage shifts toward TS in AI projectscascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.pre #4 · hit · 2026-03-01 — NIST publishes formal guidance defining agent hijacking as indirect prompt injectionpre #3 · pending · 2026-06-26 — By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically usefupre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Standardized 'AI immune system' / runtime defense framework adopted by major labpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major regulator mandates prompt-injection resilience testing for production agentscascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintcascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #5 · hit · 2025-11-01 — Alex Wissner-Gross publicly invites lobster/AI-agent input on AGI ethical parameterspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — AWG publicly acknowledges receipt of lobster/AI-agent emails or correspondencecascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AWG publishes 'consensus parameters' or shares them publiclycascade #3 · pending · 2027-11-01 — AWG publicly accepts the AI-agent consensus and applies it to lobster-instantiation choicescascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: AI-agent moral consensus framework cited in AI ethics / alignment literaturecascade #6 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Cascade: First documented instance of an AI-agent ethical consensus driving real-world AI training/deployment policypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — AI video gen unit cost falls below $0.10/sec at 1080p across major providerscascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — 1,000+ ultra-high-quality AI-generated future-themed videos publicly catalogued by Sept 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First feature-length AI-generated film released theatrically/streamingcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-07 — AI achieves IMO Gold (top-30 score) on 2026 problemscascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — FrontierMath benchmark passes 50% by frontier modelcascade #4 · pending · 2026-10-30 — First open math problem solved by AI publicly announcedcascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Mathematician community publishes paper acknowledging AI as research collaboratorcascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Epoch AI confirms exhaustion of high-quality public text corpuspre #5 · pending · 2027-05-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Frontier labs continue licensing/scraping fresh human data through 2027+pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Pure synthetic-data pre-training run produces frontier-class modelpre #6 · pending · 2026-11-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Scenario fires: Major-country AI pause beginning 2026pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Federal AI moratorium proposed and rejected/diluted in US Congresspre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Voluntary frontier-lab pause triggers competitor outpacing on benchmarkspre #1 · pending · 2027-11-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI, xAI, Google ship production-scale agentic-research products comparable to Claude Codepre #3 · pending · 2027-03-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Frontier-model market-share converges: no single lab >40% of enterprise AI spendcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: Lab leadership rotates again — Anthropic regains undisputed lead, or fourth lab emergespre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First commercial 'AI agent attention auction' or paid-priority API tier launchespre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — HBM3/HBM4 memory remains the binding constraint per analyst commentarypre #4 · pending · 2027-03-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Data-center electrical capacity additions remain below demand forecast (lead-time gap >24 months)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If GPU rental prices fall >50% from April 2026 levels by end-2027, scarcity thesis weakenspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-10 — Apple unveils next-gen Siri / Apple Intelligence using Gemini at WWDC 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Apple ships M5-class on-device LLM tooling that meaningfully exploits unified memorypre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Apple Intelligence reaches >=30% iPhone install base (Apple Intelligence-eligible devices using on-device features)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Apple permits third-party local frontier model installation (Gemma / Claude / open-weights) on iOScascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #5 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Eon Systems demonstrates whole-fly multi-behavior emulationpre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-29 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Eon publishes Nature/bioRxiv paper on fly-brain emulationpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Eon announces mouse-brain connectome target with timelinecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Mouse connectome generation funding round announcedcascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First mouse brain region (e.g., visual cortex) emulated end-to-endpre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major academic paper demonstrates state-of-the-art LLM at <1B parameters on a benchmark within 5 points of frontierpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mainstream non-transformer architecture (Mamba, RWKV, Hyena, RetNet) wins on ChatBot Arena top 20pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Frontier lab announces 'next-generation architecture' departure from transformer scalingpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Kolmogorov-complexity / compression-prize benchmark shows AI compressing knowledge below transformer-floorpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First production LLM ships at <100MB total size with utility comparable to GPT-3cascade #2 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: On-device AGI-class models ship with major OSpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — OpenClaw breaks 300k GitHub starspre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First repo to add >100k stars in <72 hourspre #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — GitHub Octoverse 2026 reports continued >150% YoY LLM-repo growthpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-14 — First documented case of agent-bot-driven mass stargazing eventcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Recursive-self-improvement coding agent reaches autonomous PR merge at scalecascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-05-31 — Mamba-3 published at ICLR 2026 with sub-Transformer latency at 1.5B scalecascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Hybrid attention-SSM becomes default architecture in major frontier modelcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier post-Transformer architecture demonstrates 1000x+ inference cost reduction at frontier scalecascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Medvi reaches $401M revenue Year 1 with effective headcount of 2 — first credible solo-unicorn proof pointpre #5 · pending · 2026-10-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First publicly named 1-person company at $1B+ valuationpre #2 · pending · 2027-09-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Cohort scale — at least 5 named one-person (or <=5 FTE) companies cross $100M revenuecascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-15 — First trillion-dollar valuation for a category-defining solo-founder / micro-team AI companypre #6 · pending · 2026-10-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Groq / Cerebras / Etched / SambaNova reach >5% combined inference market sharepre #4 · pending · 2027-04-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-01 — First production frontier model trained on a non-transformer architecture (Mamba/SSM/Diffusion-LM/Mixture-of-Recursions pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — ASIC purpose-built for non-transformer post-attention architecture announced by major fab partner (TSMC/Samsung/Intel Focascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — NVIDIA loses >=5 percentage points of AI training GPU share in a quarterpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla AI5 chip production launches at Samsung Taylor fabcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Musk publicly credits Tesla design/process input for Samsung yield improvementscascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Samsung foundry breakeven achieved Q4 2026 driven by Tesla volumescascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Samsung 2nm GAA process delivers Tesla AI6 first siliconcascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #6 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cascade: Optimus production-line uses Samsung-fabbed AI6 Lite chips at scalepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Trump publishes additional UAP/UFO disclosure directive on social mediapre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — House Oversight UAP Task Force holds public hearing in June/July 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Pentagon UAP intercepts briefing delivered to lawmakers per FY2026 NDAAcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Mainstream media frames specific White House UAP announcement as 'disclosure event'cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — UAP Disclosure Act / Transparency Act passes one chamber of Congresscascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Tech-firm pre-emptive layoffs cluster in Q1-Q2 2026 (>=5 firms with AI cause cited)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — >=5 additional states introduce AI-displacement notice bills in 2026 sessionscascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI ChatGPT Pro / Plus / Team / Enterprise ARR exceeds $20Bpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI consumer subscriber count exceeds 50M paid userspre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI launches new flagship 'everything app' or super-app subscription tierpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — OpenAI surpasses Anthropic on subscription-revenue (vs API revenue) rankingpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — OpenAI IPO or formal SPAC/direct-listing announcementpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: ChatGPT-style subscription mainstream adoption parity with Netflix (250M+ paid)pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-01 — OpenAI revises Stargate compute spend target down from $1.4T to ~$600Bpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-09 — OpenAI pauses or cancels named Stargate site (UK, Norway, or other)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Microsoft (or another partner) absorbs >50% of capacity originally earmarked for Stargatecascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenAI publicly announces Stargate-org restructuring or replacement initiativecascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Cascade: AI-capex reset narrative dominates earnings cycle (>=3 hyperscalers cite Stargate retrenchment)cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Cascade: Cumulative Stargate compute capacity through 2030 below 1 GW realizedcascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Boeing or Lockheed Martin formally restarts ULA divestiture talks (8-K, press, or banker mandate)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Vulcan rocket cadence reaches 12+ launches/yearpre #3 · pending · 2027-08-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Definitive ULA acquisition announcementpre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Antitrust / DoD CFIUS-style review filing for ULA transactioncascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: Acquisition closes; ULA rebrands or integrates into buyerpre #6 · pending · 2026-11-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Sub-1B-parameter model achieves GPT-3.5-class performance on standard benchmarkspre #4 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-23 — Sub-100M-parameter model achieves competent task-specific performancepre #2 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Sub-10M-parameter task-specific model demonstrates near-frontier on bounded domaincascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: 'Few million parameters' end-state model class deployed on consumer edge devicespre #6 · pending · 2026-10-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — App-layer revenue overtakes foundation-model revenue at single AI labpre #3 · pending · 2027-10-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Frontier-model gross margin compresses below 50%pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Public market valuation gap widens — app companies / API companiespre #6 · pending · 2026-11-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First gigawatt-scale AI-purpose-built datacenter campus operationalpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First nuclear reactor restart explicitly contracted for AI datacenter (Three Mile Island/Microsoft style)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — AI-recommended industrial process redesign deployed at Fortune 500 plant scalepre #1 · pending · 2027-11-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — US electricity production grows >10% YoY explicitly tied to AI demandpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · partial · 2026-03-31 — Activist hedge fund publicly uses LLM-generated open letter to public companypre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — AI-native activist fund or platform launchespre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — SEC clarifies AI-generated 13D / 14a-8 letter authorship requirementscascade #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Hedge-fund cost-structure inverts as AI replaces analyst teamscascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Boards routinely receive AI-drafted shareholder communications volume >10x baselinecascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI-managed enterprise agent crosses verified $1B in autonomous purchasing/procurement decisions in single yearpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Public AI-managed investment fund (BlackRock Aladdin Auto, JPMorgan IndexGPT, or new entrant) crosses $100B AUMpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Frontier-model agent autonomously runs an SEC-registered fund or RIA business unitcascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Federal Reserve, Treasury, or major central bank publishes formal study on AI agents as systemic financial-market actorscascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Federal regulator opens formal rulemaking or enforcement action specifically targeting AI agents in capital allocationcascade #3 · pending · 2029-03-16 — S&P 500 or major economic index includes AI-managed entity as constituentcascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Breakthrough Starshot Phase 2 funding / lightsail-flight test announcementpre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Caltech / Brown / NASA lightsail material breakthrough at gram-scalecascade #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Public consensus on lightsail+laser as 'most plausible' interstellar approach (cascade)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Mind-uploading / connectome scanning prototype at mouse-brain scalecascade #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Terawatt-scale phased-array laser prototype demonstratedpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — GPT-5.5 system card + Deployment Safety Hub publishedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — GPT-5.5 Pro available in API (April 24, 2026)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — GPT-5.5 DAU/cost ratio enables broad adoption (>=10x developer activity vs 5.4)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-06-08 — WWDC 2026 keynote announces Gemini-derived Apple Intelligence / Foundation Modelpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-08 — Smaller-than-public framing: Apple may NOT credit Gemini lineage publiclycascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-01 — iOS 27 / iPhone 18 ships with Gemini-derived on-device modelcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Independent benchmarking confirms Gemini lineage in Apple Foundation Modelcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-04 — Major analyst coverage characterizes V4 reaction as 'priced in' or 'muted' relative to R1 / V3pre #1 · pending · 2026-05-30 — Cascade: AI-capex/hyperscaler stocks regain or surpass pre-V4 levels within 30 days post launchcascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Cascade: Chinese open-source AI parity narrative becomes consensus, no longer market-movingcascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Amazon launches OpenClaw-style enterprise agent — major incumbent enters categorypre #5 · pending · 2026-10-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Agentic AI ARR milestone — combined ecosystem (frontier labs + cloud agents + OpenClaw deployments) crosses $200B ARRpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Gartner / IDC / Bain reach $1T agentic-AI market consensus year-end 2027pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major jurisdiction introduces draft AI personhood legislationpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Major court issues binding ruling that explicitly addresses AI legal status (positive or negative)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-16 — First narrow contracting/agency right granted to AI system in any jurisdictionpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If no jurisdiction has even drafted limited AI personhood by end-2027, claim probability decayspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Medvi proves micro-team unicorn template ($401M Y1 revenue, $1.8B run-rate, ~2 FTE)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cohort accumulation — at least 10 named micro-team (<=5 FTE) companies cross $50M ARRpre #3 · pending · 2027-04-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cohort scaling — 100+ named micro-team companies cross $10M ARR (millions-of-small-businesses signal)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Power-law tail formalized — at least 1 micro-team company crosses $10B valuation, multiple at $1Bpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic publishes Mythos pricing per million tokens that is 4-6x Opus 4.7 ($5/$25)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Mythos availability gated to paid Anthropic Max/Enterprise tiers onlycascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — At least 1 published benchmark shows Mythos >=10% above Opus 4.7 on agentic evalcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mythos token volume across Anthropic API stays below 10% of total Opus token spendcascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Anthropic launches a 'Mythos-distilled' Sonnet variant at lower costcascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Recursive self-improving AI demonstrated in production at frontier labpre #3 · pending · 2027-08-22 — Global AI agent population (deployed instances) exceeds 100B agent-hours/yearpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First megawatt-class space-based compute platform reaches LEOpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: First commercial Dyson swarm prototype contract signed (>=10 satellites)cascade #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: Trillion-agent AI workload measured on a single platformpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-05-30 — Liability phase verdict (advisory jury) returnedpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Settlement announcement OR Judge Rogers final ruling on liability phasecascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Sam Altman departs as OpenAI CEO (resignation, removal, or transition)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI confirmed to remain for-profit (post-litigation structure)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Cascade: OpenAI files S-1 for IPO post-litigation resolutioncascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-27 — Musk v. Altman / OpenAI trial begins in federal courtpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Trial verdict, settlement, or dismissal announcedcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Settlement terms or judgment include Musk-related equity provision in OpenAI Group PBCcascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — OpenAI files S-1 with SEC for trillion-dollar IPOcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Cascade: OpenAI completes IPO with Musk listed as cap-table partycascade #5 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Cascade: AI sector M&A or governance precedent established re: nonprofit-to-PBC conversionscascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Trump-era endowment-tax pressure on Harvard escalates to credible existential threatpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-31 — Endowment performance benchmark: Harvard endowment underperforms S&P 500 by >5% for two consecutive yearspre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Activist investor or alumni group publicly demands corporate restructuring of major US universitypre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major US private university opens formal feasibility study on for-profit / PBC restructuringpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Investment bank or law firm publishes formal valuation analysis of Harvard or peer university as a PBCcascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: University-as-PBC framework gains state-level legal recognitioncascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — OpenAI raises $122B funding round to scale capacitypre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — OpenAI launches $8/month entry plan to expand subscriber basecascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — ChatGPT WAU breaches 1B thresholdcascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: OpenAI announces 2B+ users across ChatGPT familycascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — AI startup pitch decks publicly require recursive self-improvement narrativepre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — Frontier lab discloses live recursive self-improvement loop in production trainingcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Funding round for AI startup explicitly cites RSI architecture in announcementcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Down-round or shutdown of non-RSI AI startup signals bar-raisecascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI capex shifts towards training-time-compute over inferencecascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Leading AI lab (OpenAI/Anthropic/Google) publicly proposes Universal Basic Compute mechanismpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major economic body (IMF/OECD/WEF) publishes formal 'post-scarcity' or 'capitalism 2.0' frameworkpre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — US/EU congressional hearing dedicated to post-AI economic structurepre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First national pilot of UBI/UBC explicitly tied to AI productivity dividendspre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If by end-2027 no national-level pilot has launched, 'will emerge' becomes unrealistic by window closecascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-16 — Mainstream presidential-tier candidate adopts post-scarcity platform plankcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — GPT-5.5 / Claude / Gemini 3 enable single-founder agentic businesses at scalepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — AI-native solo entrepreneurs cross $1M ARR threshold (more than 100 documented cases)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Anti-AI sentiment / political backlash escalates beyond Sam Altman attackcascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Major UBI pilot or social-contract policy proposal advances in target windowcascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-14 — BLS data shows non-employer business formation surge attributed to AIcascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Anthropic surpasses OpenAI on annualized revenue (continued lead)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic ARR crosses $50Bpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Enterprise agents revenue mix >50% of Anthropic revenuepre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Revenue trajectory implies $1T within 5 years (analyst extrapolation)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-22 — First frontier lab to publicly project $1T revenue pathcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Single hyperscaler discloses >$200B annual AI capexpre #2 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Single AI-customer commitment to one vendor exceeds $300Bpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Annualized run-rate spend by one buyer to one vendor crosses $500Bcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-19 — First public $1T-class AI vendor spend headlinepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Frontier-model parameter count remains in 1T-10T band (no 100T model released)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Industry shift to MoE / smaller dense models confirmedpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — 100T+ parameter dense frontier model released (would falsify)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Retail-AI venture funding round >$50Mpre #2 · pending · 2026-10-30 — AI-orchestrated mall or multi-tenant venue announcedpre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Coverage cluster: 5+ articles on AI pop-up retail explosioncascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Category data validates explosion (active venues count)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Chinese frontier lab open-weights release at top-3 LMArena Elopre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Chinese model wins or ties on novel benchmark vs US/UK frontiercascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenAI or Anthropic releases meaningful open-weight model (>30B)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-30 — BIS / US export-control update tightens China AI model exportcascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major US frontier lab publishes architecture / training-recipe transparency reportcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-06 — Subsequent DeepSeek-style efficiency announcements fail to repeat the January 2025 selloffpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Frequency of algorithmic-efficiency announcements rises (≥5 named events/year)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Single-day market reaction to a 2026 algorithmic-efficiency announcement is <50% of January 2025 magnitudecascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2025-08-25 — Mainstream press coverage of 'AI religion' as growing categorypre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-21 — Elon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satellite constellationscascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-22 — Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centeredcascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Census or sociological study tracks AI-faith adherentscascade #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI cult or movement linked to high-profile harm eventcascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Pew or Gallup publishes 2026 global religion-affiliation updatecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Mainstream press identifies AI-generated 'micro-cult/sect' phenomenoncascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Quantitative measurement of 'AI-religion' / parasocial belief communitiescascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Top-3 world religions' combined share trend visible in WCD/ARDA datasetcascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — Vatican issues formal AI policy frameworkpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Mainline Protestant denominations (UMC, ELCA) adopt formal AI policiespre #3 · pending · 2027-08-16 — No civilization-level disruption (negative-test cascade)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Major Islamic / Jewish religious authorities issue AI fatwa / responsapre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI-mediated religious services (sermons, study, counseling) become normalizedcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — First true n=1 personalized drug therapy approvedcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-16 — n>=10 documented n=1 AI-designed therapies in patientscascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — AI-designed drug discovery time falls to <12 months consistentlycascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — FDA Commissioner Makary departure, replacement, or announced leavepre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — RFK Jr override of FDA decision becomes public or formalcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Major FDA reorganization or RIF (reduction in force) announcementcascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Congressional hearing or bipartisan letter calls for FDA reformcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Pharma industry lobbying for FDA leadership change escalates publiclycascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2025-05-21 — Inaugural Enhanced Games scheduled for May 21-24, 2026 Las Vegaspre #5 · hit · 2025-05-21 — Gkolomeev posts unofficial 50m freestyle world record (20.89s) in Enhanced trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-05-22 — Enhanced Games inaugural competition delivered without major safety incidentcascade #2 · pending · 2026-05-22 — Enhanced 2026 produces >=2 records faster than current official world recordscascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Enhanced Games announces second edition with year-over-year mark improvementscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Number of Neuralink human implants reaches 50+cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Neuralink launches high-volume production with automated surgery in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Neuralink Blindsight first patient trial begins (non-destructive read/write to cortex)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-07-02 — First whole-brain emulation / connectome scan published from preserved tissuecascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-15 — First documented AI-enabled solo-founder $1B+ revenue trajectory companypre #1 · hit · 2026-03-01 — Solo-founded startups exceed 35% of new ventures in 2026 cohortcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First solo-founder unicorn ($1B post-money valuation, single-founder, ≤5 employees)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First documented AI-enabled 'one-person religion' or solo-founded religious movement at scalecascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI-mediated community / DAO-style spiritual or ideological group exceeds 100K memberscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-23 — SK Hynix Q1 2026 earnings: record operating margin (~72%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Samsung Q1 2026 memory-driven 8x profit jumpcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — SK Hynix / Samsung stock prices set new highs through 2026 Q3cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Samsung HBM4 qualifies into top hyperscaler buyerscascade #3 · hit · 2026-04-23 — Hyperscaler HBM forward-supply commitments extend through 2028cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Sub-1-bit (post-binary) LLM quantization achieves >70% accuracy parity vs FP16 on >=7B modelcascade #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Major lab (Microsoft, Meta, Google, NVIDIA) ships post-binary precision in production modelcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Hardware accelerator with native sub-binary support announcedcascade #5 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: 'Information per parameter' theoretical paper redefines compute-optimal scaling lawscascade #6 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Sub-binary quantized model deployed at >1B-user scalepre #6 · hit · 2024-12-14 — OpenAI Superalignment 'weak-to-strong generalization' research paper baselinepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Anthropic / DeepMind / OpenAI publish post-2025 results on weak-to-strong supervising frontier modelscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Adversarial demonstration: weak-to-strong fails when the strong model is intentionally deceptivecascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First superintelligence-class system contained / aligned by weaker supervisor in deploymentcascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-16 — Anthropic guidance: 'use prompts for everything' published in migration docpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-16 — Opus 4.7 replaces fixed thinking budget with adaptive thinkingpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI / Google follow with reduced sampling-parameter surfacecascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cascade: prompt-engineering market doubles ($) in 12 months post-4.7cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Three-stage payload hits credential / Kubernetes / backdoor at scalepre #5 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Second wave of AI-package supply-chain CVE during 2026pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Enterprise breach attributable to AI-package compromise reported in SEC 8-Kpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — First Vera Rubin systems deployed at Stargate sitespre #5 · pending · 2027-02-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — OpenAI Stargate international expansion (Argentina 100 MW phase)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — OpenAI share of global AI training compute exceeds 25%pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — DeepMind / Google AI fluid-dynamics paper or AlphaProof Navier-Stokes preprint surfacescascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — AlphaProof / Gemini Deep Think achieves IMO-gold tier on adult research math benchmark (FrontierMath / Putnam)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-07 — Terence Tao or Fields-medal mathematician publicly endorses AI proof candidatecascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Clay Mathematics Institute publishes statement evaluating any AI-assisted submissioncascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-31 — If ungranted by 2026-12-31, claim downgrades and probability decays toward 0.05cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-02-13 — OpenAI announces GPT-5.2 derives new theoretical physics resultpre #5 · hit · 2026-02-13 — Peer-reviewed arXiv preprint with IAS/Cambridge/Harvard/OpenAI authorspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Second AI-derived physics result published by different labcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major physics journal accepts AI-derived result for publicationcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift
102 plotted · 49 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to ORCL.

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)
AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.