Timeline Fan

32 of 32 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

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Click a symbol to scope to claims affecting that company

GOOGL 32 SDGR 32 RXRX 31 ABT 30 RLAY 30 VERV 30 ABCL 25 ABSI 25 GEHC 25 MDT 25 SMMNY 25 BNTX 24 ILMN 22 DNA 21

Filters

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Off (single timeline)$1T+ IPO AGI AI pause ASI Mars uncrewed Recession Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)

Tradeable only

Yes (≥1 ticker, default)No (all predictions)

Window

next 12 mo next 24 mo next 5 yr (default)5y + tail

Resolved

Hide (default — live forecasts only)Include Resolved only

Top predictors

All Alex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)

32 plotted · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to SDGR.

SDGR-impacting (4)

245_024

ABCL · ABSI · ABT · AZN

Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)

50% → 24% · resolves 2029-11

-26pp

COD_BIO_001

GOOGL · LLY · NVS · SDGR

FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026

70% → 47% · resolves 2026-12

-23pp

245_003

ABCL · ABSI · ABT · AMZN

Colossal's $10B valuation is massively undervalued

50% → 30% · resolves 2028-09

-20pp

238_008

ABT · ACN · ADUS · CHGG

Many incumbent companies will be in deep trouble between now and the abundance end-state

55% → 35% · resolves 2028-09

-20pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)

AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum

Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.