0 25 50 75 100 history 230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis ✓ 238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now ✓ 240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months ✓ AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake ✓ 238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) ✓ CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20 ✓ AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o ✓ 240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 ✓ FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna ✓ AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en ✓ 242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission ✓ 244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years ✓ 241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation ✓ 229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne ✓ IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct ✓ SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S ✓ SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil ✓ SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on ✓ 232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti ✓ 241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom ✓ AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓ 234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 ✓ 242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license ✓ 233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra ✓ CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val ✓ 246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers). ✓ 238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) ✓ 247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston ✓ AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using ✓ IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do ✓ AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓ CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la ✓ AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c ✓ CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba ✓ 247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial ✓ 235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). ✓ 245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE ✓ CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o ✓ 246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. ✓ FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain- ✓ ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin ✓ ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU ✓ INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva ✓ INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula ✓ SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f ✓ SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. ✓ INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n ✓ 229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. ✓ 248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. ✓ 248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. ✓ ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence- ✓ CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to ✓ 235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. ✓ SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc ✓ SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f ✓ 237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca ✓ 238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days ✓ 232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. ✓ 241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long ✓ 245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed ✓ SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme ✓ 248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. ✓ SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200 ✓ 229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. ✓ CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re ✓ CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi ✓ CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr ✓ SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate ✓ INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup ✓ INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor ✓ SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. ✓ SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying ✓ SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓ SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu ✓ SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual ✓ 231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. ✗ 231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. ✗ 235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. ✗ 244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years ◐ 239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world ◐ INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol ◐ 232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani ◐ 236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours ◐ SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad ◐ AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey ◐ 238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi ◐ 231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. ◐ CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐ 246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. ◐ AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree ◐ 246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). ◐ 247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently ◐ 245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus ◐ INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn ◐ INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat ◐ 246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. ◐ INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob ◐ SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se ◐ ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar ◐ INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await ◐ SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr ◐ INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive ◐ SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐ SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na ◐ SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u ◐ SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast ◐ SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10 ◐ SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci ◐ CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go ◐ INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — ◐ INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive ◐ SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a ◐ Jan 2026 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2027 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2028 Feb Mar Apr May Jun today pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Pure-play AI vendor (Cohere/Mistral/Perplexity) revenue stays <$35B aggregate 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Enterprise AI revenue exceeds consumer AI revenue 3:1 across hyperscalers pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI capex-to-revenue ratio compresses or hyperscaler stock multiple resets pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First US state or major economy passes UBI bill above $500/month pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — AI-driven white-collar layoffs accelerate in BLS / Challenger reports cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Large-scale labor unrest event (>10,000 participants) tied to AI displacement cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Federal pilot program or executive order on automation transition assistance cascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — OECD-wide social-insurance reform debate accelerates beyond 2026 cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Musk publicly affirms $100T SpaceX possibility pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — First trillionaire — Musk net worth crosses $1T pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Multi-trillionaire (>=2 individuals at $1T) — cascade cascade #2 · pending · 2035-07-02 — First $100T market cap company — full prediction realization pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — M5 Mac mini launch (consumer local-AI hardware refresh) pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Apple Intelligence developer-API expansion enables third-party local-LLM apps pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Local frontier-class LLM (>=30B params) running interactively on Mac mini-class device cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: Apple regains AI narrative momentum (analyst sentiment / sell-side upgrades) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Cascade: Mac mini becomes mainstream local-AI inference reference platform cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. pre #4 · hit · 2026-03-01 — NIST publishes formal guidance defining agent hijacking as indirect prompt injection pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-26 — By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically usefu pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Standardized 'AI immune system' / runtime defense framework adopted by major lab pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major regulator mandates prompt-injection resilience testing for production agents cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superint cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — ≥1 high-profile $1B+ AI-startup failure in 2026 pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — AI-cited job cuts cross 100K cumulative threshold pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-26 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — ≥1 S&P 500 incumbent files Chapter 11 with AI disruption cited pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AlphaFold/Isomorphic-style AI lab partnership produces clinical Phase-I trial drug pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-discovered superconductor material independently verified pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier lab discloses >=$10B revenue from a non-chat product (drug discovery / materials / robotics) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI fusion-control breakthrough: ITER-class plasma stability gain attributed to RL pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI's IMO-gold-medal model remains unreleased months after milestone pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier lab publicly admits internal-deployment-only model with significant capability gap vs released models cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI R&D acceleration measurable: lab discloses >=20% productivity gain from internal model use cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Public-vs-internal capability gap formally widens to >=6 months on a major benchmark cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Government / regulator demands disclosure of internal-deployed capabilities pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-27 — ICLR 2026 Workshop on AI with Recursive Self-Improvement convened in Rio (community legitimization) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-15 — AlphaEvolve-class system autonomously discovers novel SOTA algorithm in published paper pre #2 · pending · 2026-10-16 — OpenAI ships intern-level AI research agent (publicly demonstrated or deployed) pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier lab "effective workforce" disclosure shows >10x ratio of AI agents to human researchers cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Anthropic / OpenAI public claim of "fully automated AI research" pipeline cascade #3 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superint cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Musk publicly affirms hard takeoff thesis at Abundance Summit 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Frontier-lab leader publicly endorses recursive self-improvement timeline by mid-2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Per-week breakthrough cadence visible in independent metrics cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First publicly disclosed AI system that materially designs its successor model architecture cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Hard-takeoff thesis enters mainstream macro discourse cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence. cascade #5 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. cascade #6 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. pre #1 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superint cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-22 — Sam Altman publicly states AGI 'feels close' or equivalent pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI declares 'AI research intern' capability internally achieved pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier model exceeds human PhD-expert performance on FrontierMath benchmark cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI system surpasses median-IQ humans across composite benchmarks (>=120 IQ-equivalent) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Independent expert panel declares one major capability domain 'incomprehensibly' beyond top human pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-discovered longevity candidate enters Phase I clinical trial pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Isomorphic Labs / Insilico Medicine announces AI-designed clinical candidate pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI lab claims demonstrable solution to a major scientific problem (publicly verified) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — First country approves AI-designed gene therapy or longevity intervention pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier AI exceeds aggregate human performance on broad benchmark suite pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-driven compute consumption reaches >1% of global electricity pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Independent forecaster declares humans 'minority of intelligence' framing accepted pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla repurposes Fremont Model S/X line for Optimus production pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Optimus units perform measurable factory tasks at Tesla plants pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Tesla output per employee grows ≥30% YoY pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Tesla's labor productivity outpaces auto-industry peers by ≥2x cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-03 — Tesla Texas factory reduces headcount 22% in 2025 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Tesla cuts >14,000 roles globally in 2025 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Tesla Q2 2026 hiring announcement materializes cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla Optimus production drives >2,000 manufacturing hires cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cybercab/Robotaxi launch reduces ICE workforce further cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Tesla Optimus 3 enters production cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — US CPI core inflation drops below 2% YoY cascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Goods-price PPI declines YoY for >=2 consecutive quarters cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Fed funds rate cut to <2% citing AI productivity disinflation cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Real GDP growth exceeds 5% sustained 4 quarters cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-01 — Major government official publicly proposes UBI to offset AI displacement pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First production-scale humanoid robot fleet (>10K units) deployed commercially pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Per-unit cost of humanoid robot drops below $20K pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Anthropic CEO restates AGI 2026-2027 timeline at major venue pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Frontier model achieves novel scientific insight (Altman 2026 prediction) pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — G20 / OECD policy paper acknowledges money/work decoupling scenario cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Macro indicator: real wage / consumption ratios show AI-era distortion cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-15 — Stanford AI Index / similar tracker reports power/energy as primary AI scaling constraint pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Hyperscaler signs >=1GW nuclear/SMR PPA explicitly framed as 'AI fuel' pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major frontier lab publishes paper framing AI optimization in compute/energy units (vs $) pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI agent autonomously transacts in non-USD compute resource (token-for-compute, GPU-hour swap) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: Tokenized compute marketplace (Akash, io.net, Render) hits $1B annualized GMV pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-03 — Goldman: AI productivity contribution near-zero (0.1-0.2pp GDP) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Treasury auction stress event (≥10y yield spike >25bps in week) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major fiscal-AI policy proposal in Congress cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Real GDP growth from AI investment exceeds 1pp/yr in 2027 cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Healthcare humanoid robot market size hits $2.96B in 2026 pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Robotic-assisted surgery market crosses $14B globally pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI diagnostic systems (Aidoc, Viz.ai) integrated in >50% of US hospitals pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Optimus / humanoid surgery demonstration on cadaver or live procedure cascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Universal access to AI-doctor better than richest-person care NOT achieved by 2028-11-30 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-30 — SpaceX FCC application for million-satellite orbital data-center constellation acknowledged / advanced pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Google CEO restates AI data centers in space target for 2027 with concrete partner / launch slot pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Peer-reviewed Dyson-swarm / photovoltaic-Dyson-sphere paper published, cited in mainstream tech press pre #1 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Starcloud / orbital compute reaches ≥100kW deployed solar power (sun-energy capture milestone) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Cumulative orbital compute power exceeds 1 MW across operators cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Hyperscalers + frontier labs commit >=$1T cumulative AI capex through 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Compute aggregate exceeds human-brain-equivalent FLOPS across deployed AI fleet pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First permanent off-Earth compute installation (lunar / Starlink-attached) announced cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Starlink-attached compute / SpaceX 'Starcloud' commercial service goes live cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Aggregate AI inference operations exceed measurable human cognitive operations per day pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Published AI capability progress chart shows visible second S-curve onset (reasoning models) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — RL-from-verifiable-reward / reasoning S-curve produces measurable benchmark step-up pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Public capability-progress narrative shifts from 'chinchilla scaling' to 'overlapping curves' cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Diffusion / world-model-based architecture launches as third S-curve pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Medvi reaches $401M revenue Year 1 with effective headcount of 2 — first credible solo-unicorn proof point pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First publicly named 1-person company at $1B+ valuation pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Cohort scale — at least 5 named one-person (or <=5 FTE) companies cross $100M revenue cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-15 — First trillion-dollar valuation for a category-defining solo-founder / micro-team AI company pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier model demonstrates sustained pro-social behavior in red-team evaluations pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Wisdom benchmark (e.g., wise-action selection at moral dilemmas) introduced and adopted pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-05 — Multi-lab alignment compact: top 5 labs publish joint statement on values-aligned AGI pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: First clinical study showing AI mental-health agent improves wellbeing vs human therapists cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Cascade: Major religious or philosophical institution publicly endorses 'AI as moral peer' pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. pre #3 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — SpaceX Starship V3 first flight test pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Starlink V3 deployment using Starship begins cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — SpaceX achieves 145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Launch-per-hour cadence remains aspirational vs ~1-3 per week reality cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence. cascade #5 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. cascade #6 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-27 — DeepSeek V4 not competitive with frontier US models pre #2 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — China's AI+ initiative targets 90% sector integration cascade #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI/Anthropic/Google maintain compute-intensive frontier model focus cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — China expands open-weight model leadership globally cascade #4 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superint cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-26 — By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically usefu pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Tesla begins Optimus production at Fremont factory pre #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Tesla unveils Optimus V3 design publicly pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla breaks ground on Giga Texas Optimus self-replicating factory cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Optimus robot performs verified humanoid-robot manufacturing task on production line cascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Annualized Optimus production rate exceeds 100,000 units cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · partial · 2026-04-30 — First single company to cross $5T market cap pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla / xAI / SpaceX combined enterprise value crosses $5T pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — SpaceX completes IPO and provides public market-cap anchor cascade #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Optimus / robotaxi commercial revenue ramp validates AI/robotics premium cascade #2 · pending · 2027-04-16 — First single company crosses $10T market cap pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — First Tesla Cybercab production VIN rolls off line pre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-15 — Tesla confirms <$30K retail price at production VIN milestone pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Cybercab mass production ramp at Giga Texas (10-min cycle time) pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First public Cybercab delivery / handover to customer or robotaxi fleet cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Cascade: Stocktwits/fund-manager prediction of late-2026 delay materializes cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: Tesla Cybercab SKU added to Tesla.com configurator with delivery slots pre #6 · miss · 2023-09-04 — IPBES authoritative figure is $423B/year (NOT $5.4T) pre #5 · hit · 2023-09-04 — Costs quadrupled every decade since 1970 pre #4 · hit · 2025-05-15 — Phys.org May 2025 study cumulative cost since 1960 exceeds $2.2T pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major government allocates >$1B specifically to invasive species control cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Colossal Biosciences or competitor announces commercial invasive species removal contract cascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Updated IPBES estimate publishes in next assessment cycle cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years pre #6 · miss · 2025-11-30 — USDA NIFA estimates US invasive species impact at $137B/year (NOT $500B) pre #5 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Global biological invasion costs reach US$ 26B+/year in 2010s pre #4 · hit · 2025-12-31 — North America cumulative invasion cost crosses $1.3T (1960-2017) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — USDA invasive species program funding increase cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Colossal Biosciences expands de-extinction work as invasive species response cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Colossal Biosciences or Ben Lamm publicly announces gene-drive commercial business unit cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Gene-drive Phase III mosquito field trial starts in sub-Saharan Africa cascade #3 · pending · 2027-12-16 — International gene-drive governance framework formalized (Convention on Biological Diversity / WHO) cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — First gene-drive-derived commercial product (mosquito control, agricultural pest control) ships cascade #5 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Cascade: Gene-drive market sizing reports cumulative TAM > $100B in named report cascade #6 · pending · 2031-12-31 — Cascade: Major rogue or unauthorized gene-drive release becomes geopolitical incident pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX confidentially files S-1 for IPO including xAI pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-05-16 — Combined entity loss of $5B reported, raising IPO execution risk pre #2 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — SpaceX-xAI combined IPO targets $1.75T-$2T valuation in summer 2026 listing pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Claude Code annualized revenue exceeds $2.5B pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Anthropic ARR crosses $30B and surpasses OpenAI pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic ARR reaches $100B (interim milestone toward $1T) pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Anthropic ARR reaches $1T by EOY 2027 (target) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: Anthropic IPO or tender offer at $1T+ valuation pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Single hyperscaler discloses >$200B annual AI capex pre #2 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Single AI-customer commitment to one vendor exceeds $300B pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Annualized run-rate spend by one buyer to one vendor crosses $500B cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-19 — First public $1T-class AI vendor spend headline pre #3 · hit · 2026-02-11 — BIP-360 (Pay-to-Merkle-Root) merged into Bitcoin BIP repository pre #2 · hit · 2026-03-20 — BTQ Technologies deploys functional post-quantum Bitcoin testnet pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Bitcoin Core release with PQ migration tooling for mainnet cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Bitcoin user-activated soft fork or signaling for PQ migration cascade #2 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Cryptographically-relevant quantum computer demonstrated against ECDSA-256 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — AI-private-company secondary valuations widen vs. revenue multiples pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — AI public-name short interest rises above 5% float on 3+ AI plays pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — AI unicorn down-round or failed raise reported pre #1 · pending · 2026-05-31 — AI sector ETF or basket underperforms SPY by >5% in single month cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-14 — First sustained AI valuation reset (>15% drawdown) on AI-software basket cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-23 — SK Hynix Q1 2026 earnings: record operating margin (~72%) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Samsung Q1 2026 memory-driven 8x profit jump cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — SK Hynix / Samsung stock prices set new highs through 2026 Q3 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Samsung HBM4 qualifies into top hyperscaler buyers cascade #3 · hit · 2026-04-23 — Hyperscaler HBM forward-supply commitments extend through 2028 cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Alex Finn / IT Lounge HIM platform demonstrates 5-agent autonomous corp pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Cumulative HIM-generated revenue surpasses $1M cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Second autonomous-corp framework launches (beyond HIM) cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major incumbent (Salesforce, Microsoft, ServiceNow) launches autonomous-corp suite pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-22 — Morgan Stanley publishes 15-45 EB DRAM agentic forecast pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-23 — MS Memory Stocks bottleneck shift report published pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Micron / SK Hynix earnings cite agentic AI as DRAM demand driver pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — DRAM industry 2026 capex announcements support multi-year supply ramp cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Global DRAM 2027 demand growth tracker confirms 25%+ YoY pre #5 · hit · 2026-01-28 — Moltbook launches with 150K+ AI agents pre #4 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · hit · 2026-03-10 — Meta acquires Moltbook pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Moltbook crosses 1M total registered AI agents cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Second autonomous agent platform launches with >100K agents cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Closed-loop digital economy emerges (agents transact autonomously) pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Three-stage payload hits credential / Kubernetes / backdoor at scale pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Second wave of AI-package supply-chain CVE during 2026 pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Enterprise breach attributable to AI-package compromise reported in SEC 8-K pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%) target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift 47 plotted · 37 outside x-range · click any dot for detail
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.