0 25 50 75 100 history 230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis ✓ 238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now ✓ 240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months ✓ AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake ✓ 238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) ✓ CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20 ✓ AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o ✓ 240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 ✓ FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna ✓ AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en ✓ 242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission ✓ 244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years ✓ 241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation ✓ 229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne ✓ IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct ✓ SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S ✓ SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil ✓ SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on ✓ 232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti ✓ 241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom ✓ AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓ 234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 ✓ 242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license ✓ 233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra ✓ CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val ✓ 246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers). ✓ 238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) ✓ 247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston ✓ AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using ✓ IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do ✓ AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓ CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la ✓ AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c ✓ CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba ✓ 247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial ✓ 235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). ✓ 245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE ✓ CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o ✓ 246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. ✓ FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain- ✓ ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin ✓ ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU ✓ INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva ✓ INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula ✓ SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f ✓ SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. ✓ INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n ✓ 229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. ✓ 248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. ✓ 248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. ✓ ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence- ✓ CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to ✓ 235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. ✓ SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc ✓ SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f ✓ 237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca ✓ 238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days ✓ 232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. ✓ 241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long ✓ 245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed ✓ SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme ✓ 248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. ✓ SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200 ✓ 229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. ✓ CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re ✓ CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi ✓ CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr ✓ SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate ✓ INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup ✓ INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor ✓ SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. ✓ SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying ✓ SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓ SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu ✓ SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual ✓ 231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. ✗ 231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. ✗ 235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. ✗ 244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years ◐ 239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world ◐ INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol ◐ 232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani ◐ 236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours ◐ SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad ◐ AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey ◐ 238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi ◐ 231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. ◐ CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐ 246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. ◐ AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree ◐ 246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). ◐ 247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently ◐ 245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus ◐ INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn ◐ INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat ◐ 246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. ◐ INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob ◐ SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se ◐ ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar ◐ INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await ◐ SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr ◐ INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive ◐ SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐ SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na ◐ SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u ◐ SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast ◐ SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10 ◐ SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci ◐ CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go ◐ INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — ◐ INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight ◐ INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive ◐ SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a ◐ Jan 2026 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2027 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2028 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2029 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2030 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2031 Feb Mar Apr May Jun today pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — US or EU public funding package for Greenland critical-minerals infrastructure pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Critical Metals or KoBold opens Greenland pilot processing plant pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — First commercial humanoid robot deployed in Arctic mining or harsh-environment field test pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Humanoid robot unit cost <$30K plus reliability validated in industrial setting pre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — First commercial Greenland rare earth or graphite shipment to non-Chinese refiner cascade #1 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Asteroid mining commercial commodity return predates Greenland operational mine cascade #2 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. cascade #3 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Tesla Optimus production crosses 10,000 cumulative units pre #5 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump ad pre #4 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines. pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Annual humanoid robot production (industry-wide) crosses 1 million units pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-16 — First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. pre #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028 cascade #1 · pending · 2030-09-15 — Tesla or Figure crosses 10M cumulative humanoid units cascade #2 · pending · 2034-07-11 — Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments cascade #3 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. cascade #4 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months pre #6 · pending · 2028-02-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2028-05-01 — First trillion-dollar IPO closes at >$1T fully diluted pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First public company breaches $20T market cap pre #3 · pending · 2028-12-15 — S&P 500 total market cap doubles from 2026 baseline pre #2 · pending · 2029-02-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — First public firm crosses $50T market cap pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-30 — First company crosses $10T market cap pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2027 pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Top company net income annualized run rate crosses $300B pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-31 — First non-US sovereign or private firm mentioned in $10T speculation pre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — $100T market cap threshold first appears in consensus analyst note cascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — First company crosses $20T market cap pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Major chain (≥3 of top-10) deploys robotic kitchen automation production pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-19 — Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026. pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-16 — First chain announces humanoid robots replacing crew positions in US store pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Fast food labor headcount declines ≥3% YoY in BLS data citing automation cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-19 — Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027 cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector cascade #3 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time cascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Diamandis Abundance360 Longevity Trip 2026 confirms market thesis pre #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Major pharma cap-ex reallocation toward longevity / aging programs pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-30 — First aging-as-disease ICD-11 code adoption by major payor pre #3 · pending · 2030-02-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · pending · 2030-03-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2030-04-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Musk publicly affirms $100T SpaceX possibility pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — First trillionaire — Musk net worth crosses $1T pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Multi-trillionaire (>=2 individuals at $1T) — cascade cascade #2 · pending · 2035-07-02 — First $100T market cap company — full prediction realization pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AlphaFold/Isomorphic-style AI lab partnership produces clinical Phase-I trial drug pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-discovered superconductor material independently verified pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier lab discloses >=$10B revenue from a non-chat product (drug discovery / materials / robotics) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI fusion-control breakthrough: ITER-class plasma stability gain attributed to RL pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Figure achieves total China supply-chain decoupling milestone pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Figure announces Abundance Summit 2027 attendance / speaker slot pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-15 — Figure 03 robot demonstrated to Peter Diamandis on stage at Abundance Summit 2027 cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Figure 03 unit confirmed delivered to Diamandis personally cascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Cascade: Figure annual production reaches 12K unit run-rate (initial line cap) cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector cascade #4 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time cascade #6 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-19 — Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Zoox launches robotaxis in Austin and Miami (own-app expansion) pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Zoox commences mapping / pre-deployment testing fleet in Los Angeles metro pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-16 — Zoox robotaxi service publicly launches in Los Angeles via Uber app (mid-2027) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector cascade #2 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time cascade #4 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. cascade #5 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-14 — Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Optimus 1M-unit/yr Fremont line in prep cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Tesla AI5 chip enters production for Optimus & robotaxi cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tesla 2026 capex doubles to $20B+ for AI/robotics cascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Competing humanoid players (Figure, 1X) match vertical-integration playbook cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Starcloud public update on multi-GW orbital DC roadmap pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Meta-Overview Energy 1 GW space-solar reservation milestone pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Academic / industry consensus that earth-bound GW AI factories scale through 2027 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Lunar mass-driver / SBSP feasibility study published pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · partial · 2026-04-30 — First single company to cross $5T market cap pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla / xAI / SpaceX combined enterprise value crosses $5T pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — SpaceX completes IPO and provides public market-cap anchor cascade #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Optimus / robotaxi commercial revenue ramp validates AI/robotics premium cascade #2 · pending · 2027-04-16 — First single company crosses $10T market cap pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla robotaxi undercuts Waymo fares by ~50% in head-to-head market (Dallas) pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — AAA / Edmunds publish 2026 cost-of-ownership analysis showing private car >$1.10/mi all-in pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Sixth-generation Waymo hardware deployment narrows cost gap pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Waymo reaches 1M weekly paid rides milestone pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Waymo (GOOGL) crosses 250K weekly rides across all markets cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Pony.ai expands robotaxi fleet to 3,000 vehicles in 20+ cities cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — WeRide robotaxi fleet crosses 2,600 vehicles cascade #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Tesla Robotaxi national service launches in 5+ U.S. metros cascade #5 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First U.S. state files legislation reducing driver-license renewal cadence citing AVs cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Auto insurance industry reports first material premium decline due to AV displacement pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Synthetic biology total market crosses $50B annual revenue pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — AI-designed protein / molecule receives first FDA new molecular entity approval pre #3 · pending · 2028-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2029-05-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Synthetic biology firm achieves $100B+ market cap cascade #1 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Synthetic biology revenue equals 1% of US GDP (~$300B/yr) pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-16 — Tesla $2B investment in xAI as Master Plan IV vehicle pre #5 · hit · 2026-01-29 — Bloomberg/Reuters reports Musk weighing SpaceX-Tesla-xAI mega-merger pre #4 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · hit · 2026-02-03 — SpaceX-xAI merger closed at $1.25T combined valuation pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · hit · 2026-05-01 — $573M+ web of related-party transactions disclosed in Tesla 10-K cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Tesla-SpaceX or Tesla-xAI formal merger agreement signed cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. pre #6 · pending · 2029-04-10 — Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship pre #5 · pending · 2029-06-08 — Dyson swarm launchers will not be a SpaceX singleton; many orgs will launch their own. pre #4 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly. pre #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Tesla-SpaceX-xAI combined entity (or aggregate cap-table) reaches $10T pre #2 · pending · 2029-11-08 — Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of pre #1 · pending · 2030-03-12 — Tesla, SpaceX, or xAI individually crosses $5T market cap cascade #1 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Austin and Atlanta autonomous markets growing faster than national average pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-08 — Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-09 — About 20% of drivers slough off Uber platform annually pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026 pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Tesla Robotaxi unsupervised commercial service in ≥3 metros pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First FAA Type Certificate for eVTOL (Joby or Archer) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-08-16 — Commercial eVTOL passenger service operating in LA by July 2028 cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous software cascade #5 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15) cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX confidentially files S-1 for IPO including xAI pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-05-16 — Combined entity loss of $5B reported, raising IPO execution risk pre #2 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — SpaceX-xAI combined IPO targets $1.75T-$2T valuation in summer 2026 listing pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Claude Code annualized revenue exceeds $2.5B pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Anthropic ARR crosses $30B and surpasses OpenAI pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic ARR reaches $100B (interim milestone toward $1T) pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Anthropic ARR reaches $1T by EOY 2027 (target) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: Anthropic IPO or tender offer at $1T+ valuation pre #4 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. cascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-19 — Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027 cascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector cascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Hyperscaler AI traffic capex includes net-new bandwidth/spectrum line item pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Starlink/Kuiper announce robot/AV-class connectivity tier cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production start signals demand validation for connected humanoids cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cellular IoT module shipments for robotics/AV cross 100M annualized cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. cascade #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Spectrum policy: FCC or peer regulator allocates net-new AI-machine-class spectrum cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 pre #6 · hit · 2026-05-01 — AI agent registers EIN, opens bank account, and operates as autonomous corporation pre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — First single-founder company achieves $1B annualized revenue pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI-operated company crosses $1B valuation with no human CEO target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift 24 plotted · 2 outside x-range · click any dot for detail
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.