Timeline Fan

32 of 32 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

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Top predictors
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)
0255075100history230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis✓238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now✓240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months✓AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake✓238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)✓CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20✓AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o✓240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027✓FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna✓AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en✓242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission✓244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years✓241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation✓229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne✓IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct✓SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S✓SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil✓SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on✓232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti✓241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom✓AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026✓242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license✓233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra✓CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val✓246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers).✓238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if)✓247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston✓AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using✓IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do✓AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la✓AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c✓CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba✓247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial✓235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).✓245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE✓CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o✓246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.✓FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-✓ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin✓ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU✓INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva✓INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula✓SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f✓SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.✓INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n✓229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.✓248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.✓248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.✓ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence-✓CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to✓235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.✓SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc✓SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f✓237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca✓238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days✓232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.✓241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long✓245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed✓SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme✓248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.✓SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200✓229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.✓CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re✓CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi✓CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr✓SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate✓INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup✓INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor✓SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.✓SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying✓SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu✓SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual✓231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.✗231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.✗235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.✗244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years◐239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world◐INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol◐232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani◐236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours◐SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad◐AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey◐238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi◐231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.◐CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.◐AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree◐246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).◐247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently◐245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus◐INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn◐INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat◐246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.◐INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob◐SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se◐ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar◐INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await◐SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr◐INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive◐SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na◐SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u◐SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast◐SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10◐SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci◐CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go◐INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 —◐INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive◐SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a◐Jan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2027FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2028FebMarAprMayJuntodaypre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-17 — Figure publicly demonstrates a robot performing assembly task on BotQ linepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Figure announces new funding round or BotQ-specific partnerpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — First Figure robot officially deployed at BotQ in production rolecascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — BotQ cumulative production count disclosed (≥100 units)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Customer deployment count increases post-BotQ rampcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timepre #6 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Figure announces second major US enterprise customerpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour ratepre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Figure 03 commercial deployment with BMW Spartanburg confirmedcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Figure 03 unit shipments exceed 1,000 units across customers in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Figure achieves 30-min production cadence in Baku facilitycascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorpre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — First sub-scale humanoid maker shuts down or absorbs into larger playerpre #5 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Top 3 humanoid players capture >70% of commercial deployment volumepre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Chinese humanoid players (Unitree, UBTech, Xiaomi) carve geographic moatpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Industry settles to <=6 global players by 2028 endpre #6 · hit · 2026-03-22 — Figure 03 demonstrates multi-room autonomous tidy-up (toys + cleaning)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Figure publicly demonstrates full-house multi-room autonomous task chaincascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Helix model handles novel multi-floor / staircase navigationcascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Figure 03 deployed to private home pilot customer with daily multi-room workloadcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-02 — Helix 02 demonstrates 4-minute autonomous dishwasher kitchen taskpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Helix 02 deployed in BMW logistics commercial use casecascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Helix 02 home testing in unseen environments demonstratedcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Robot-built robot manufacturing line milestone (Figure 03 building Figure 03)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Humanoid robot deployed in another humanoid's manufacturing line (robots-build-robots first instance)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-03 — Humanoid manufacturing line where >=20% of assembly steps are performed by other humanoidscascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: First fully-autonomous humanoid-built humanoid (recursive manufacturing)cascade #2 · pending · 2029-07-30 — By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the worldcascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Google DeepMind ships robotic foundation model with major-OEM partnershippre #5 · pending · 2026-10-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Apple humanoid/tabletop robot product launch announcedpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Microsoft formally enters humanoid robotics (acquisition or platform)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-01 — ≥5 Mag-7 companies have material humanoid exposure by end-2027pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Figure cumulative production crosses 1,000 robotspre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BotQ first-gen line annualized capacity reaches 12,000 robots/yearpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Baku BotQ-2 facility broken ground / construction announcedpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-01 — Cumulative Figure production reaches 100,000 over 4-year horizoncascade #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Millions of robots NOT achieved by 2028-11-30pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — BotQ achieves one-robot-per-hour cadence (24x prior throughput)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — BotQ second production line commissioned (push beyond 12K nameplate to 50K)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Figure announces second/Baku/secondary facility for additional capacity beyond Sunnyvalecascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Annualized run-rate at BotQ exceeds 30,000 units (≥60% of 50K cap)cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Figure BotQ scales to ~12,000 robots/year capacitypre #5 · pending · 2027-02-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Figure shifts from 'thousands' to 'tens of thousands' annual productionpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First commercial customer reaches 1,000-unit deploymentpre #2 · pending · 2027-07-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Figure announces second BotQ-style facility / 100K-unit scale-upcascade #1 · pending · 2028-05-31 — Figure reaches 'hundreds of thousands' annual run ratepre #6 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BMW / Mercedes / Hyundai / Amazon publicly confirm humanoid replacement of legacy non-humanoid robots in productionpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Mining / construction / agriculture continue specialized non-humanoid robotics scale-up (counter-evidence)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Figure BotQ ramp + Optimus + Unitree combined annual humanoid output exceeds 200K unitspre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Form-factor consensus narrative shift: Wall Street / IFR / McKinsey adopt 'humanoid-first' defaultcascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Humanoid robots become >50% of total annual industrial-robot shipment growthpre #6 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Figure 03 alpha-home pilot announcement (named customer or geographic pilot)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Figure 03 production rate at 1/hour or highercascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Figure publishes Helix unseen-environment benchmark (zero-shot home tasks)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Second customer for Figure beyond BMW (commercial or consumer)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Human intervention rate disclosed at <=1 per day on home taskscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Figure BotQ production line ramps to 12,000 units/year capacitypre #2 · pending · 2026-10-30 — First Figure 03 unit ships to non-employee paying alpha customer (home)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Figure publishes home-deployment intervention rate / autonomy benchmarkcascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: Figure achieves >=100 home alpha deployments by EOY 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #3 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Helix v3 long-horizon planning model deployed enabling multi-step home task executionpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-01 — BotQ commercial-scale manufacturing facility supports alpha unit productionpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Figure begins alpha home test program — robot enters Adcock's residence for end-to-end household workcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Figure publishes early intervention metrics from home alpha (interventions per hour or per task)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First public consumer (non-partner) home pilot deployment of Figure 03pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-16 — Helix AI v2 or successor enables generalized household task transfer (multi-home)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Figure cumulative installed base passes 1,000 homes/sitespre #1 · pending · 2027-08-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Cumulative installed base passes 10,000 homes/sitescascade #2 · pending · 2028-05-31 — If unit price has not crossed below $15K by end of window, 100K-home target slipspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-30 — No competitor demonstrates closed-loop coffee/Keurig task with uncut footage by mid-2026pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Public benchmark/leaderboard for humanoid manipulation parity establishedpre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Figure unseen-home generalization demo (voice command in unfamiliar setting)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Tesla Optimus Gen 3 / 1X / Agility public demo matches Figure 03 capability profilecascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Figure 02 sustained autonomous operation milestone (≥ 4-5 hr continuous neural-net runtime in unstructured tasks)pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Figure 03 (next-gen platform) public unveil or technical previewcascade #1 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Figure demonstrates multi-task generalization in an unseen home environment for ≥ 1 daycascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Figure home pilot expansion announcement ("tens of units" deployed to non-employee households)cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostonpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Figure publicly cites order book or wait-list metriccascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Figure or peer humanoid private-round implies $50B+ valuationcascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production start as parallel demand validationcascade #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Industry-wide humanoid order book exceeds 100,000 units cumulativelycascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First public-market humanoid IPO or direct listingcascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Global humanoid demand reaches 30,000 units in 2026pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Tesla Optimus external customer shipments beginpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Foundation deploys 10,000 humanoids in 2026, 50,000 by end-2027pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cumulative humanoid robots deployed in SF Bay Area exceeds 5,000cascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — More-humanoids-than-humans density NOT achieved in any SF block by 2028-11-30pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-31 — Figure Grid facility opens with 24/7 operationspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour ratepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Figure production triples from March to May 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-19 — Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs downcascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Figure achieves 30-min production cadence in Bakucascade #4 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Cumulative Figure 03 deployment crosses 1000 unitscascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostoncascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-16 — BMW Plant Leipzig pilot phase begins (first European Physical AI deployment)pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Second named industrial customer disclosed (beyond BMW; UPS / Fortune-100 manufacturer / 3PL)pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Figure customer roster remains in single digits (lead-customer concentration check)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Figure announces broad-distribution shift OR retains lead-customer model (resolution check)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Figure home pilot — long-horizon tasks in unseen homespre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Figure deploys F.03 in non-automotive vertical (logistics, retail, home)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Vertical/form-factor humanoid wins >=20% of new automotive orderspre #2 · pending · 2027-10-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Robot-built-robot demonstration at BotQpre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla Optimus Grok-5 conversational training operational in factoriespre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — 1X NEO ships to early-access homes with conversational UI as defaultpre #4 · pending · 2027-01-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Voice-UI becomes standard reference architecture in humanoid product literaturepre #2 · pending · 2027-07-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Field-deployment data: voice commands account for >50% of task initiationstarget window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift
25 plotted · 7 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior.

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)
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Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.