0 25 50 75 100 history 230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis ✓ 238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now ✓ 240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months ✓ AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake ✓ 238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) ✓ CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20 ✓ AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o ✓ 240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 ✓ FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna ✓ AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en ✓ 242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission ✓ 244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years ✓ 241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation ✓ 229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne ✓ IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct ✓ SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S ✓ SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil ✓ SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on ✓ 232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti ✓ 241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom ✓ AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓ 234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 ✓ 242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license ✓ 233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra ✓ CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val ✓ 246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers). ✓ 238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) ✓ 247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston ✓ AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using ✓ IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do ✓ AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓ CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la ✓ AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c ✓ CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba ✓ 247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial ✓ 235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). ✓ 245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE ✓ CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o ✓ 246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. ✓ FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain- ✓ ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin ✓ ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU ✓ INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva ✓ INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula ✓ SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f ✓ SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. ✓ INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n ✓ 229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. ✓ 248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. ✓ 248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. ✓ ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence- ✓ CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to ✓ 235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. ✓ SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc ✓ SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f ✓ 237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca ✓ 238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days ✓ 232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. ✓ 241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long ✓ 245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed ✓ SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme ✓ 248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. ✓ SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200 ✓ 229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. ✓ CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re ✓ CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi ✓ CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr ✓ SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate ✓ INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup ✓ INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor ✓ SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. ✓ SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying ✓ SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓ SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu ✓ SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual ✓ 231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. ✗ 231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. ✗ 235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. ✗ 244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years ◐ 239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world ◐ INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol ◐ 232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani ◐ 236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours ◐ SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad ◐ AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey ◐ 238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi ◐ 231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. ◐ CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐ 246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. ◐ AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree ◐ 246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). ◐ 247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently ◐ 245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus ◐ INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn ◐ INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat ◐ 246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. ◐ INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob ◐ SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se ◐ ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar ◐ INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await ◐ SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr ◐ INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive ◐ SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐ SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na ◐ SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u ◐ SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast ◐ SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10 ◐ SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci ◐ CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go ◐ INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — ◐ INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight ◐ INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive ◐ SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a ◐ Jan 2026 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2027 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2028 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2029 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2030 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2031 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2032 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2033 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2034 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2035 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2036 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2037 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2038 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2039 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2040 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2041 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2042 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2043 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2044 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2045 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2046 Feb Mar Apr May Jun today pre #6 · pending · 2027-12-16 — CBO or major IB upgrades 2030 GDP path by >=20% citing AI/automation pre #5 · pending · 2028-02-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Productivity growth (BLS nonfarm) breaks above 4.0% YoY pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — G20 official statement names AI/robotics as primary driver of GDP outperformance pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Tesla bot or Optimus generates >$10B in segment revenue annualized pre #1 · pending · 2029-02-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years cascade #2 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years pre #5 · hit · 2025-06-30 — Zendesk fully-resolved-ticket pricing model in market pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-14 — HubSpot Breeze AI shifts to outcome-based pricing pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 40% of enterprise applications feature AI agents pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Hybrid usage+outcome pricing reaches 60% of SaaS vendors pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Major professional services firm shifts billable-hour model to outcome pricing pre #6 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forcing total organizatio pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2027 pre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First single-quarter US GDP print >5% annualized attributed to AI productivity (leading indicator) pre #3 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2028 pre #2 · pending · 2030-03-05 — US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. pre #1 · pending · 2032-03-16 — First annual US GDP growth print of 2x prior trend (≥4-5% real growth) confirming Wissner-Gross thesis (~early 2030s) cascade #1 · pending · 2032-09-15 — Year-over-year US GDP growth crosses 100% (3x doubling) per Wissner-Gross/Musk vision (low-prob tail) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Ireland announces BIA pilot extension and expansion to 2,000-2,200 artists for 2026-2029 pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-16 — Ireland publishes final third-year evaluation showing aggregate benefit-cost ratio pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Second non-Irish jurisdiction adopts arts-specific UBI pilot citing Ireland pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-30 — Ireland BIA scheme made permanent or made universal within Ireland pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Comparable peacetime work-creation scheme expanded beyond arts in any G20 country pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Major frontier-AI CEO publicly proposes federal UHI / UBI funded by AI tax pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — 3 or more US state legislatures introduce UBI/UHI legislation tied to AI displacement pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AEI / NBER meta-analysis publishes peer-reviewed findings on UBI effectiveness for AI displacement pre #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Federal-level UHI/UBI legislation introduced in US Congress cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Annual US GDP growth crosses 5% for first time since pandemic (vs ~2-3% baseline) pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Global GDP growth crosses 5% (well above 3% trend) pre #3 · pending · 2028-11-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Productivity (TFP) growth in US rises to >= 3% annually (vs ~1% historical) pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Single year shows >= 10% real GDP growth in any G20 economy primarily attributed to AI cascade #1 · pending · 2030-12-31 — Triple-digit (>= 100%) annual GDP growth at country or global level (Horowitz claim) cascade #2 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years cascade #3 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — SF AI startup funding share exceeds 50% of global AI VC pre #5 · pending · 2027-11-01 — SF unicorn count crosses 250 pre #4 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump ad pre #3 · pending · 2029-12-31 — First AI-related US company crosses $1T market cap headquartered in SF pre #2 · pending · 2032-12-31 — SF metro share of S&P 500 market cap exceeds 25% pre #1 · pending · 2034-07-02 — Off-Earth commercial activity tied primarily to SF/Bay-Area HQs (SpaceX, Tesla satellite ops, Anthropic compute) cascade #1 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #2 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #3 · pending · 2046-07-24 — Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very different pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Stanford AI Index records lowest-ever 38% positive AI sentiment in US pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-21 — 142+ activist groups in 24 states organize against AI infrastructure pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — G7 nation enacts AI windfall tax, UBI pilot, or wealth-cap legislation cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #5 · hit · 2026-01-31 — AI inference cost falls >=900x per million tokens since 2023 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-28 — Top economist publicly cites Jevons Paradox to explain AI labor expansion pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — AI capex spend approaches $650-725B in 2026 pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AI inference industry spend exceeds $50B in 2026 (Jevons rebound) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — BEA productivity statistics show >=2% annualized labor productivity growth sustained 6+ quarters pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Sam Altman publicly walks back UBI as primary mechanism, advocates equity/wealth-fund alternatives pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — OpenResearch publishes 5-year longitudinal follow-up to $60M UBI experiment with policy recommendations pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Major US state introduces AI sovereign wealth fund or AI-tax-funded equity-distribution legislation pre #2 · pending · 2029-12-07 — First nation or sub-national region implements equity-based AI dividend (mirroring Alaska Permanent Fund model) pre #1 · pending · 2030-04-01 — OECD or World Bank report formally tracks 'capital-side dividends' as macro indicator cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First US state or major economy passes UBI bill above $500/month pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — AI-driven white-collar layoffs accelerate in BLS / Challenger reports cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Large-scale labor unrest event (>10,000 participants) tied to AI displacement cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Federal pilot program or executive order on automation transition assistance cascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — OECD-wide social-insurance reform debate accelerates beyond 2026 cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First state-level UBI program scaled to ≥1M recipients (intermediate step before federal) pre #4 · pending · 2029-01-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Federal UBI enacted (precondition for UHI per Yang's framework) pre #2 · pending · 2030-05-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2030-11-08 — UHI legislation supersedes UBI as AI-driven job displacement crosses 30M US workers pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Giving Pledge attrition continues — second AI-era billionaire publicly exits pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI founder net worth crosses $200B (Altman/Huang/Musk-class) pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Aggregate AI-founder philanthropic commitments cross $100B cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Q1 2026 US real GDP grows at 2.0% annual rate pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-31 — Q4 2026 BEA release confirms nominal GDP per capita >=$88,000 pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Nominal GDP per capita crosses $90,000 pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Real GDP per capita growth runs >=1.5% annual through 2028 cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Nominal GDP per capita crosses $100,000 pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First publicly-announced billionaire-funded regional cash-transfer program in their home metro (>=$50M committed, >=10,0 pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Yang/Humanity Forward expands philanthropic UBI footprint past Hudson/Denver pilots into >=5 new cities pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — At least three additional billionaire-backed local UBI/GBI programs announced in same year as the first pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Federal/state legislator cites billionaire-backed regional UBI as model in introduced legislation pre #1 · pending · 2028-11-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2028-04-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2028-06-15 — AI-displacement triggers ≥10M white-collar US job losses YoY (forcing UBI political consensus) pre #4 · pending · 2029-08-12 — Universal Basic Services pilot at federal scale (housing, healthcare, transit, food bundles) pre #3 · pending · 2029-08-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2030-12-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2032-02-15 — Universal Basic Services rolled out alongside UBI in 3-8 year timeframe per Diamandis framing cascade #1 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. cascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-11 — FHA delinquency rate breaches 11% (highest since 2021) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Aggregate household debt crosses $19T by mid-2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Cascade: regional bank credit-loss provisions rise YoY by 25%+ cascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Low-income zip 90+ DPD rate exceeds 3.5% by year-end 2026 cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Larry Fink/BlackRock CEO publicly warns AI deepening wealth gap pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — S&P 500 firms reduce headcount while productivity rises cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Capital share of GDP exceeds 65% in advanced economies cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-15 — World Bank WDR 2026 'AI for Development' published with poverty-impact framework pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First country deploys AI-driven cash-transfer or geospatial-targeting program at scale (>5M beneficiaries) pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Global extreme poverty rate drops below 9.5% per World Bank PovcalNet update pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-16 — AI-tool penetration in low-income agricultural extension services exceeds 25% pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Sub-Saharan Africa poverty rate stagnant or rising despite AI rollout pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If no >5M-beneficiary AI poverty program launches by end-2027, 'chance of fixing' becomes generous cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — US CPI peaks at >=5% YoY before sustained decline below 2% pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Federal UBI/cash-transfer enacted at scale >=$500B/year pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Money-supply growth (M2) acceleration >=10% YoY pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — AI-driven goods deflation observable in tradable goods CPI subcomponent pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Robotics-driven labor cost decline: humanoid+industrial robot deployment >=500K units cumulative US pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-14 — First major economist publishes AI-driven hyperinflation framework pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US M2 / debt monetization signal — fiscal dominance proxy pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI-driven structural disinflation — opposite outcome (negation watch) pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — US headline CPI exceeds 8% sustained for 12+ months pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — May 1, 2026 mass labor protests in US (>500 organizations participating) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Single-day US protest crowd >=500K nationwide (June-Aug 2026) cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Teen anxiety/depression rates remain above pre-2020 levels into 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — AAA-rated civil unrest incident count rises ≥20% YoY by mid-2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anger/fear sentiment index (online) crosses 2020 pandemic peak cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Cascade: SAMHSA distress hotline volume up 25%+ YoY cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Global TFR projection updates show below-replacement faster than expected cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #2 · hit · 2026-01-31 — St. Louis Fed AI-contribution-to-GDP nowcast Jan 2026 pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-12 — BEA real GDP per capita Q1 2026 prints cascade #1 · hit · 2026-01-26 — AI-related capex categories rank top-2 driver of US GDP growth in any quarter cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — US nominal GDP per capita crosses $90,000 in 2026 cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Productivity growth (nonfarm business output/hour) >2% YoY for 2026 sustained pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — HHS publishes 2026 Poverty Guidelines for individual pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Census Bureau releases supplemental poverty measure (SPM) update cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Public discourse shifts to higher 'effective' poverty benchmarks cascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Federal or state UBI/wage-floor proposal pegs benefits near $25K/person cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Anthropic / OpenAI restrict managed agent access citing OpenClaw substitution pressure pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-30 — OpenClaw GitHub stars cross 1,000,000 pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — If OpenClaw stars stagnate or fall below 500K by end-2026, consumer-adoption thesis weakens pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Enterprise migration to OpenClaw exceeds 50% of new agent deployments at top-10 vendors pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Major SaaS vendor reports >10% revenue impact attributed to OpenClaw substitution pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cumulative consumer-side OpenClaw deployments cross 10 million users cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-16 — AI venture funding 2026 H1 exceeds $200B globally pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Open-weight frontier model released by sub-$10M lab pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Solo / small-team product reaches ≥100K MAU on agent stack pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — PDI gauntlet: Top 10 AI products built with <$1M founding capital by 2027 cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Major analyst report or central-bank speech reframes compute / energy as scarce factor of production pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — US grid interconnect queue or curtailment data shows binding compute-power gap pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Critical-mineral concentration crisis intensifies (rare-earth / cobalt / lithium) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Compute-credits / energy-tokens emerge as observed alternative-currency settlement cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — OECD or IMF working paper measures factor-price shift toward energy/compute cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Industrial 3D printing capex exceeds $25B globally in 2026 pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Molecular manufacturing public demonstration (sub-nanometer assembly) pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Consumer-good marginal cost benchmark (3D-printed shoe/tool) hits sub-$5 pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Mainstream economists adopt 'near-zero marginal cost' framing in 2027 cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — XPRIZE Wildfire $11M competition awards 2026 finalist winners pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-15 — XPRIZE Water Scarcity semifinals testing begins ($119M competition) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — XPRIZE launches new $100M+ competition explicitly tied to fundamental AI/AGI safety or grand-challenge pre #2 · pending · 2028-04-28 — Multi-XPRIZE winners attract follow-on commercial deployment >=$1B aggregate pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-13 — Public-narrative shift: mainstream coverage frames XPRIZE-style approaches as default for civilizational challenges cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Sam Altman / OpenAI publicly proposes Universal Basic Compute (UBC) policy framework pre #4 · pending · 2028-12-31 — First national or sub-national AI compute / dividend pilot enacted pre #3 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Tax-and-distribute proposal targeting AI/compute economic rents reaches active legislative debate pre #2 · pending · 2032-12-31 — First G7 country implements national AI dividend or UBC at scale pre #1 · pending · 2036-01-01 — OECD-wide AI-displacement-driven income support reaches 100M+ recipients cascade #1 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #3 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Pincus/Donovan publicly announces wealth-pod structure pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — First annual disbursement to 44 recipients (4% cash + 1% expansion pool) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Pod publishes baseline wellbeing/income measurement of 44 recipients cascade #3 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First-year recipient outcomes publicly reported cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-14 — Expansion pool funds second pod cascade #5 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years cascade #6 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. pre #6 · pending · 2029-12-31 — World Bank or IMF reports a single-year world real GDP growth >=6% pre #5 · pending · 2029-12-31 — AGI/ASI declared by a major AI lab and accepted by independent benchmark consortium pre #4 · pending · 2030-03-05 — US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. pre #3 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Optimus / Figure / Apptronik humanoid-robot annual production crosses 1 million units (any single manufacturer) pre #2 · pending · 2031-07-02 — Global services-export prices collapse >=40% as AI knowledge-work substitution scales pre #1 · pending · 2032-03-25 — UBI/stimulus needed in 1-3 year timeframe, UBS in 3-8 years pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Washington State Evergreen Basic Income Pilot final report (Dec 2026) recommends ongoing program pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal Guaranteed Income Pilot Program Act of 2025 (H.R.5830) reaches committee markup or floor vote pre #4 · pending · 2028-12-31 — AI-driven unemployment crosses 6% national rate, formally cited by BLS or Treasury as driver pre #3 · pending · 2029-12-31 — At least one US state enacts a permanent (non-pilot) guaranteed-income / UBI statute funded statewide pre #2 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Florida/Illinois-style UBI prohibition spread reverses; pre-emption laws repealed in any state pre #1 · pending · 2031-12-31 — Federal stimulus / direct-payment program triggered specifically by AI-displacement framing (not pandemic, not recession cascade #1 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #2 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Tesla Optimus 3 enters production cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — US CPI core inflation drops below 2% YoY cascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Goods-price PPI declines YoY for >=2 consecutive quarters cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Fed funds rate cut to <2% citing AI productivity disinflation cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Real GDP growth exceeds 5% sustained 4 quarters cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Anthropic CEO restates AGI 2026-2027 timeline at major venue pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Frontier model achieves novel scientific insight (Altman 2026 prediction) pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — G20 / OECD policy paper acknowledges money/work decoupling scenario cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Macro indicator: real wage / consumption ratios show AI-era distortion cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-03 — Goldman: AI productivity contribution near-zero (0.1-0.2pp GDP) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Treasury auction stress event (≥10y yield spike >25bps in week) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major fiscal-AI policy proposal in Congress cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Real GDP growth from AI investment exceeds 1pp/yr in 2027 cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-28 — Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod) pre #5 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Annual US real GDP growth crosses 5% (first sustained quarterly print) attributed to AI productivity pre #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Annual global real GDP growth crosses 6% — first time since 1973 pre #2 · pending · 2029-11-01 — Triple-digit GDP growth is possible in the next 5 years due to AI. pre #1 · pending · 2030-03-05 — US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. cascade #1 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Triple-digit (100%+) US GDP growth realized within 5 years of original Musk claim (full path-dependence event) pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-15 — OpenAI / Anthropic / Tesla CEO public statement that money is becoming less relevant pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major government formally proposes UBI / AI dividend pilot cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — AI white-collar displacement crosses measurable threshold (BLS or McKinsey data) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Public AI-dividend / token tax legislative proposal in US Congress pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-29 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First public claim by major economist or central banker that AI is meaningfully shifting the long-run growth trajectory pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Macro literature publishes formal critique of 1000x economy thesis pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — AI-driven productivity growth shows up in advanced-economy TFP statistics (sustained >2% TFP growth for 3 consecutive ye cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Energy-output decoupling milestone: global TWh growth keeps pace with GDP without proportional emissions cascade #3 · pending · 2031-01-01 — Cascade: post-scarcity policy frameworks debated in G7 / G20 cascade #4 · pending · 2035-07-02 — Global nominal GDP doubles vs 2024 baseline (2024 nominal world GDP ~$110T → ~$220T) pre #6 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2028 pre #5 · pending · 2029-10-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2029-12-31 — World GDP growth rate sustains >=4% annualized for 3+ consecutive years pre #3 · pending · 2031-09-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2032-03-31 — Per-capita global GDP doubles relative to 2025 baseline pre #1 · pending · 2032-07-01 — 10x GDP language enters mainstream economic forecasting (IMF, OECD, BIS) baseline scenarios cascade #1 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). cascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-16 — AI-driven structural disinflation observable in CPI/PPI data (sustained 5-12% logistics/manufacturing cost compression) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Electricity becomes binding constraint on AI / production cost stack (Morgan Stanley / Goldman flag) pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tech-giant capex tops $700B (2026 — marks compute deflation flywheel) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Specific consumer-good category shows AI-driven price compression to within ~2x of energy+materials cost cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Charles I. Jones-style endogenous-growth model with AI-driven cost-collapse cited by Fed / CBO cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Concurrent mass-layoff cycle Q1 2026 (Block 40%, Atlassian 1,600+, Salesforce, Klarna, etc.) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Hyperscaler capex concentration: top-5 firms account for >70% of US AI capex cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI-native startup count crosses 50,000 (Schmidt 'large number of very small companies') cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — AI capex contributes 1.1% to GDP growth in H1 2025 baseline pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Data center construction hits $40B annual rate (June 2025 baseline) pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Q1 2026 AI investments drive 75% of GDP increase pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — 2026 hyperscaler AI capex reaches $700B (~doubles 2025) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Global data center capex CAGR confirms 21% trajectory toward $1.2T by 2029 cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Construction subsegment 'data center' formally separated from 'office' in BEA data cascade #4 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years cascade #5 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). pre #6 · miss · 2023-09-04 — IPBES authoritative figure is $423B/year (NOT $5.4T) pre #5 · hit · 2023-09-04 — Costs quadrupled every decade since 1970 pre #4 · hit · 2025-05-15 — Phys.org May 2025 study cumulative cost since 1960 exceeds $2.2T pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major government allocates >$1B specifically to invasive species control cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Colossal Biosciences or competitor announces commercial invasive species removal contract cascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Updated IPBES estimate publishes in next assessment cycle cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years pre #6 · miss · 2025-11-30 — USDA NIFA estimates US invasive species impact at $137B/year (NOT $500B) pre #5 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Global biological invasion costs reach US$ 26B+/year in 2010s pre #4 · hit · 2025-12-31 — North America cumulative invasion cost crosses $1.3T (1960-2017) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — USDA invasive species program funding increase cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Colossal Biosciences expands de-extinction work as invasive species response cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Colossal Biosciences or Ben Lamm publicly announces gene-drive commercial business unit cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Gene-drive Phase III mosquito field trial starts in sub-Saharan Africa cascade #3 · pending · 2027-12-16 — International gene-drive governance framework formalized (Convention on Biological Diversity / WHO) cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — First gene-drive-derived commercial product (mosquito control, agricultural pest control) ships cascade #5 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Cascade: Gene-drive market sizing reports cumulative TAM > $100B in named report cascade #6 · pending · 2031-12-31 — Cascade: Major rogue or unauthorized gene-drive release becomes geopolitical incident pre #6 · pending · 2029-11-01 — Triple-digit GDP growth is possible in the next 5 years due to AI. pre #5 · pending · 2030-03-05 — US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. pre #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — AI productivity contribution to global growth measured at >=1pp annual pre #3 · pending · 2032-03-25 — UBI/stimulus needed in 1-3 year timeframe, UBS in 3-8 years pre #2 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Global GDP growth crosses 10% calendar year pre #1 · pending · 2033-08-28 — Economy will be 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number) cascade #1 · pending · 2036-12-31 — Global GDP nominal value crosses 10x 2025 baseline (~$1,150T) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Sam Altman / Dario Amodei / Demis Hassabis publicly endorse zero-marginal-cost framing pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Cost-of-intelligence per token falls 10x year-over-year pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Mainstream-economist counter-argument published (Krugman / Acemoglu / Summers) pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major AI service rolls out free unlimited tier to >100M users cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Energy / compute scarcity contradicts 'zero marginal cost' narrative cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-30 — We are currently in AI hard takeoff pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First US AI-displacement legislative bill formally introduced in Congress pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First state-level AI displacement payment program enacted pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — BLS or independent labor research confirms >100K AI-displacement layoffs in single quarter pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-16 — US unemployment rate exceeds 6% with non-cyclical characterization pre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Federal stimulus check or transfer program enacted >=$1,000 per adult cascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-02 — AI-tax or compute-tax framework adopted federally to fund transfers cascade #2 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Leading AI lab (OpenAI/Anthropic/Google) publicly proposes Universal Basic Compute mechanism pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major economic body (IMF/OECD/WEF) publishes formal 'post-scarcity' or 'capitalism 2.0' framework pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — US/EU congressional hearing dedicated to post-AI economic structure pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First national pilot of UBI/UBC explicitly tied to AI productivity dividends pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If by end-2027 no national-level pilot has launched, 'will emerge' becomes unrealistic by window close cascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-16 — Mainstream presidential-tier candidate adopts post-scarcity platform plank cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — GPT-5.5 / Claude / Gemini 3 enable single-founder agentic businesses at scale pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — AI-native solo entrepreneurs cross $1M ARR threshold (more than 100 documented cases) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Anti-AI sentiment / political backlash escalates beyond Sam Altman attack cascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Major UBI pilot or social-contract policy proposal advances in target window cascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-14 — BLS data shows non-employer business formation surge attributed to AI cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. pre #6 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Global AI economic contribution exceeds $19.9T cumulative through 2030 (IDC base) pre #5 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Sustained global GDP growth ≥5%/year for 3 consecutive years driven by AI productivity pre #4 · pending · 2032-03-25 — UBI/stimulus needed in 1-3 year timeframe, UBS in 3-8 years pre #3 · pending · 2033-08-28 — Economy will be 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number) pre #2 · pending · 2035-07-02 — Global GDP doubles vs 2025 baseline (~$110T → $220T nominal, signaling 10x trajectory off-track) pre #1 · pending · 2036-07-01 — Global GDP reaches 10x of 2025 baseline (~$1.1 quadrillion nominal) — Musk's full claim pre #6 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Global GDP measurement revised upward >=3% from 2025 projection due to AI pre #5 · pending · 2030-01-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2031-12-31 — Scenario fires: No NBER recession through 2031 pre #3 · pending · 2032-01-01 — 5x GDP scenarios become standard high-side projection in IMF/OECD/BIS long-horizon outlooks pre #2 · pending · 2032-01-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2032-12-31 — World GDP doubles relative to 2025 baseline ($100T → $200T constant USD) target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift 55 plotted · click any dot for detail
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.