Timeline Fan

78 of 78 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

Filter by ticker

Click a symbol to scope to claims affecting that company

IBM 101 AMZN 78 CRWV 78 GOOGL 78 META 78 MSFT 78 ORCL 75 NVDA 74 GTLB 58 NBIS 55 AI 55 BBAI 55 SOUN 55 ACN 46

Filters

Fork by

Off (single timeline)$1T+ IPO AGI AI pause ASI Mars uncrewed Recession Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)

Tradeable only

Yes (≥1 ticker, default)No (all predictions)

Window

next 12 mo next 24 mo next 5 yr (default)5y + tail

Resolved

Hide (default — live forecasts only)Include Resolved only

Top predictors

All Alex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)

78 plotted · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to META.

META-impacting (4)

242_023

AAPL · ACN · ALAB · AMT

World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036

60% → 34% · resolves 2036-12

-26pp

239_001

ADUS · AI · AMZN · APO

Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years

60% → 38% · resolves 2036-12

-22pp

234_042

ADUS · AMZN · BABA · BXP

AI displacement will collapse the payroll tax base funding Medicare/Social Security

65% → 47% · resolves 2027-09

-18pp

246_003

ADUS · AI · AMZN · APO

Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).

55% → 37% · resolves 2036-12

-18pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)

AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum

Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.