Timeline Fan

94 of 94 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

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Top predictors
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)
0255075100history230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis✓238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now✓240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months✓AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake✓238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)✓CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20✓AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o✓240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027✓FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna✓AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en✓242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission✓244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years✓241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation✓229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne✓IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct✓SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S✓SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil✓SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on✓232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti✓241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom✓AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026✓242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license✓233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra✓CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val✓246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers).✓238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if)✓247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston✓AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using✓IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do✓AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la✓AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c✓CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba✓247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial✓235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).✓245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE✓CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o✓246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.✓FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-✓ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin✓ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU✓INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva✓INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula✓SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f✓SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.✓INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n✓229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.✓248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.✓248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.✓ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence-✓CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to✓235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.✓SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc✓SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f✓237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca✓238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days✓232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.✓241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long✓245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed✓SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme✓248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.✓SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200✓229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.✓CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re✓CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi✓CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr✓SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate✓INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup✓INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor✓SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.✓SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying✓SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu✓SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual✓231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.✗231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.✗235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.✗244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years◐239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world◐INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol◐232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani◐236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours◐SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad◐AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey◐238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi◐231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.◐CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.◐AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree◐246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).◐247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently◐245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus◐INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn◐INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat◐246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.◐INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob◐SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se◐ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar◐INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await◐SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr◐INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive◐SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na◐SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u◐SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast◐SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10◐SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci◐CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go◐INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 —◐INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight◐INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive◐SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a◐Jan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2027FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2028FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2029FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2030FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2031FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2032FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2033FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2034FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2035FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2036FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2037FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2038FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2039FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2040FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2041FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2042FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2043FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2044FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2045FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2046FebMarAprMayJuntodaypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Goldman Sachs / McKinsey publishes humanoid GDP-impact model with jurisdiction comparisonspre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First sub-national jurisdiction (city/state) launches humanoid-friendly economic zonepre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Global humanoid shipments cross 100,000 units in calendar yearcascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — First peer-reviewed empirical paper measuring per-jurisdiction GDP uplift from humanoid deploymentcascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Wage suppression of low-skill manual labor exceeds 5% in robot-dense jurisdictioncascade #3 · pending · 2028-11-30 — If 100K total humanoid units not deployed by window-close 2028-11-30, 100x-GDP claim fails timingcascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036pre #6 · pending · 2027-12-16 — CBO or major IB upgrades 2030 GDP path by >=20% citing AI/automationpre #5 · pending · 2028-02-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Productivity growth (BLS nonfarm) breaks above 4.0% YoYpre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — G20 official statement names AI/robotics as primary driver of GDP outperformancepre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Tesla bot or Optimus generates >$10B in segment revenue annualizedpre #1 · pending · 2029-02-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #2 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — First US state introduces UBI bill explicitly tied to AI displacementpre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — BLS unemployment rate driven by AI-displaced occupations crosses 5.5%pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — First US state passes UBI legislationpre #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — Federal UBI proposal advances past committee in Congresscascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · hit · 2025-06-30 — Zendesk fully-resolved-ticket pricing model in marketpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-14 — HubSpot Breeze AI shifts to outcome-based pricingpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 40% of enterprise applications feature AI agentspre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Hybrid usage+outcome pricing reaches 60% of SaaS vendorspre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Major professional services firm shifts billable-hour model to outcome pricingpre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 yearspre #6 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forcing total organizatiopre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2027pre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First single-quarter US GDP print >5% annualized attributed to AI productivity (leading indicator)pre #3 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2028pre #2 · pending · 2030-03-05 — US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.pre #1 · pending · 2032-03-16 — First annual US GDP growth print of 2x prior trend (≥4-5% real growth) confirming Wissner-Gross thesis (~early 2030s)cascade #1 · pending · 2032-09-15 — Year-over-year US GDP growth crosses 100% (3x doubling) per Wissner-Gross/Musk vision (low-prob tail)pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — UN High-Level Expert Group Beyond-GDP final indicator dashboard publishedpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — UN General Assembly resolution endorsing beyond-GDP frameworkpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Peer-reviewed paper proposes 'Abundance Capability Index' or named-equivalentpre #2 · pending · 2028-05-01 — First G7 or G20 member adopts beyond-GDP composite as official statistic alongside GDPpre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Major investment bank or rating agency publishes ACI-style sovereign rating supplementcascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Multiple national constitutions or budget laws reference beyond-GDP measurecascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — 55K AI-attributed layoffs in 2025 (Workday, Amazon, Salesforce et al)pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-28 — 32K tech-firm job losses in first 2 months of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major industry (call centers, BPO, customer support) shows >15% YoY headcount declinecascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI-driven labor displacement reaches 1M jobs/year displacement ratecascade #3 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Major US city deploys AI surveillance/predictive-policing at scale (Blundin's mechanism)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Privacy/civil-liberties pushback creates state-level surveillance restrictionspre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Real-Time Crime Index midyear 2027 confirms or reverses 2025 record declinepre #1 · pending · 2027-10-31 — FBI UCR 2026 annual data shows continued violent-crime decline OR reversescascade #1 · pending · 2028-10-31 — 2028 violent crime rate published by FBI shows confirmed directioncascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Federal judges publicly acknowledge legal system trailing AI pacepre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major US court adopts AI-augmented case management at scalepre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — AI capability doubles 4+ times within 24 months (Google Gemini doubling time)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Ireland announces BIA pilot extension and expansion to 2,000-2,200 artists for 2026-2029pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-16 — Ireland publishes final third-year evaluation showing aggregate benefit-cost ratiopre #3 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Second non-Irish jurisdiction adopts arts-specific UBI pilot citing Irelandpre #2 · pending · 2028-09-30 — Ireland BIA scheme made permanent or made universal within Irelandpre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Comparable peacetime work-creation scheme expanded beyond arts in any G20 countrypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Major frontier-AI CEO publicly proposes federal UHI / UBI funded by AI taxpre #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — 3 or more US state legislatures introduce UBI/UHI legislation tied to AI displacementpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AEI / NBER meta-analysis publishes peer-reviewed findings on UBI effectiveness for AI displacementpre #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Federal-level UHI/UBI legislation introduced in US Congresscascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — ChatGPT daily commerce queries surpass 50Mpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Walmart and Target integrate into agent-ready commerce protocolspre #3 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Competing protocol war emerges: ACP vs AP2 vs MPP vs x402pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Agent-mediated transactions reach >=10% of US e-commerce GMVcascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — AI productivity capture concentrates in top quintile of firmspre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Within-country wage variance widens >10% in AI-exposed sectorspre #2 · pending · 2029-09-15 — AI-laggard country GDP-per-capita divergence widens >5pppre #1 · pending · 2030-07-02 — AI-pace vs legacy gap codified in policy frameworkcascade #1 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #3 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Annual US GDP growth crosses 5% for first time since pandemic (vs ~2-3% baseline)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Global GDP growth crosses 5% (well above 3% trend)pre #3 · pending · 2028-11-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Productivity (TFP) growth in US rises to >= 3% annually (vs ~1% historical)pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Single year shows >= 10% real GDP growth in any G20 economy primarily attributed to AIcascade #1 · pending · 2030-12-31 — Triple-digit (>= 100%) annual GDP growth at country or global level (Horowitz claim)cascade #2 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #3 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — SF AI startup funding share exceeds 50% of global AI VCpre #5 · pending · 2027-11-01 — SF unicorn count crosses 250pre #4 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #3 · pending · 2029-12-31 — First AI-related US company crosses $1T market cap headquartered in SFpre #2 · pending · 2032-12-31 — SF metro share of S&P 500 market cap exceeds 25%pre #1 · pending · 2034-07-02 — Off-Earth commercial activity tied primarily to SF/Bay-Area HQs (SpaceX, Tesla satellite ops, Anthropic compute)cascade #1 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #2 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #3 · pending · 2046-07-24 — Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very differentpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Stanford AI Index records lowest-ever 38% positive AI sentiment in USpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-21 — 142+ activist groups in 24 states organize against AI infrastructurepre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — G7 nation enacts AI windfall tax, UBI pilot, or wealth-cap legislationcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #5 · hit · 2026-01-31 — AI inference cost falls >=900x per million tokens since 2023pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-28 — Top economist publicly cites Jevons Paradox to explain AI labor expansionpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — AI capex spend approaches $650-725B in 2026pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AI inference industry spend exceeds $50B in 2026 (Jevons rebound)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — BEA productivity statistics show >=2% annualized labor productivity growth sustained 6+ quarterspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Fed delivers first rate cut in current cyclepre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Capex on AI/robotics rises while corporate hiring slowspre #2 · pending · 2026-09-14 — Public co. earnings calls cite agent/robot purchases substituting hirespre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Humanoid robot unit shipments cross 100K annual run-ratecascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-21 — Net hiring vs robot/agent-deployment gap visible in macro datacascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Sam Altman publicly walks back UBI as primary mechanism, advocates equity/wealth-fund alternativespre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — OpenResearch publishes 5-year longitudinal follow-up to $60M UBI experiment with policy recommendationspre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Major US state introduces AI sovereign wealth fund or AI-tax-funded equity-distribution legislationpre #2 · pending · 2029-12-07 — First nation or sub-national region implements equity-based AI dividend (mirroring Alaska Permanent Fund model)pre #1 · pending · 2030-04-01 — OECD or World Bank report formally tracks 'capital-side dividends' as macro indicatorcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OASI trust fund exhaustion projection holds at FY2032pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI displacement layoffs cross 100,000 cumulative since 2024cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Brookings/IMF/McKinsey publish AI payroll-tax-base shrinkage estimatecascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Federal robot/AI tax legislation introduced in Congresscascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-30 — OASI trust fund exhaustion accelerated to <FY2030 in Trustees Reportpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First US state or major economy passes UBI bill above $500/monthpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — AI-driven white-collar layoffs accelerate in BLS / Challenger reportscascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Large-scale labor unrest event (>10,000 participants) tied to AI displacementcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Federal pilot program or executive order on automation transition assistancecascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — OECD-wide social-insurance reform debate accelerates beyond 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First state-level UBI program scaled to ≥1M recipients (intermediate step before federal)pre #4 · pending · 2029-01-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Federal UBI enacted (precondition for UHI per Yang's framework)pre #2 · pending · 2030-05-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2030-11-08 — UHI legislation supersedes UBI as AI-driven job displacement crosses 30M US workerspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Giving Pledge attrition continues — second AI-era billionaire publicly exitspre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI founder net worth crosses $200B (Altman/Huang/Musk-class)pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Aggregate AI-founder philanthropic commitments cross $100Bcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Q1 2026 US real GDP grows at 2.0% annual ratepre #3 · pending · 2027-01-31 — Q4 2026 BEA release confirms nominal GDP per capita >=$88,000pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Nominal GDP per capita crosses $90,000pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Real GDP per capita growth runs >=1.5% annual through 2028cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Nominal GDP per capita crosses $100,000pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First publicly-announced billionaire-funded regional cash-transfer program in their home metro (>=$50M committed, >=10,0pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Yang/Humanity Forward expands philanthropic UBI footprint past Hudson/Denver pilots into >=5 new citiespre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — At least three additional billionaire-backed local UBI/GBI programs announced in same year as the firstpre #3 · pending · 2028-01-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Federal/state legislator cites billionaire-backed regional UBI as model in introduced legislationpre #1 · pending · 2028-11-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Young-worker (22-25) employment in AI-exposed jobs falls ≥15%pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AI-attributed tech layoffs cross 100K cumulative 2026pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Mass-mobilization protest tied to AI/automation displacementpre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — State or federal UBI / wage-insurance bill introduced citing AI displacementcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2028-04-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2028-06-15 — AI-displacement triggers ≥10M white-collar US job losses YoY (forcing UBI political consensus)pre #4 · pending · 2029-08-12 — Universal Basic Services pilot at federal scale (housing, healthcare, transit, food bundles)pre #3 · pending · 2029-08-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2030-12-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2032-02-15 — Universal Basic Services rolled out alongside UBI in 3-8 year timeframe per Diamandis framingcascade #1 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-02-11 — FHA delinquency rate breaches 11% (highest since 2021)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Aggregate household debt crosses $19T by mid-2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Cascade: regional bank credit-loss provisions rise YoY by 25%+cascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Low-income zip 90+ DPD rate exceeds 3.5% by year-end 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Larry Fink/BlackRock CEO publicly warns AI deepening wealth gappre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — S&P 500 firms reduce headcount while productivity risescascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Capital share of GDP exceeds 65% in advanced economiescascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-09-15 — World Bank WDR 2026 'AI for Development' published with poverty-impact frameworkpre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First country deploys AI-driven cash-transfer or geospatial-targeting program at scale (>5M beneficiaries)pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Global extreme poverty rate drops below 9.5% per World Bank PovcalNet updatepre #3 · pending · 2027-11-16 — AI-tool penetration in low-income agricultural extension services exceeds 25%pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Sub-Saharan Africa poverty rate stagnant or rising despite AI rolloutpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If no >5M-beneficiary AI poverty program launches by end-2027, 'chance of fixing' becomes generouscascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — US CPI peaks at >=5% YoY before sustained decline below 2%pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Federal UBI/cash-transfer enacted at scale >=$500B/yearpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Money-supply growth (M2) acceleration >=10% YoYpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — AI-driven goods deflation observable in tradable goods CPI subcomponentpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Robotics-driven labor cost decline: humanoid+industrial robot deployment >=500K units cumulative USpre #6 · pending · 2027-02-14 — First major economist publishes AI-driven hyperinflation frameworkpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US M2 / debt monetization signal — fiscal dominance proxypre #4 · pending · 2027-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI-driven structural disinflation — opposite outcome (negation watch)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — US headline CPI exceeds 8% sustained for 12+ monthspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — May 1, 2026 mass labor protests in US (>500 organizations participating)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Single-day US protest crowd >=500K nationwide (June-Aug 2026)cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Teen anxiety/depression rates remain above pre-2020 levels into 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — AAA-rated civil unrest incident count rises ≥20% YoY by mid-2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anger/fear sentiment index (online) crosses 2020 pandemic peakcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Cascade: SAMHSA distress hotline volume up 25%+ YoYcascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Global TFR projection updates show below-replacement faster than expectedcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #2 · hit · 2026-01-31 — St. Louis Fed AI-contribution-to-GDP nowcast Jan 2026pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-12 — BEA real GDP per capita Q1 2026 printscascade #1 · hit · 2026-01-26 — AI-related capex categories rank top-2 driver of US GDP growth in any quartercascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — US nominal GDP per capita crosses $90,000 in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Productivity growth (nonfarm business output/hour) >2% YoY for 2026 sustainedpre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — HHS publishes 2026 Poverty Guidelines for individualpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Census Bureau releases supplemental poverty measure (SPM) updatecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Public discourse shifts to higher 'effective' poverty benchmarkscascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Federal or state UBI/wage-floor proposal pegs benefits near $25K/personcascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Anthropic / OpenAI restrict managed agent access citing OpenClaw substitution pressurepre #5 · pending · 2026-10-30 — OpenClaw GitHub stars cross 1,000,000pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — If OpenClaw stars stagnate or fall below 500K by end-2026, consumer-adoption thesis weakenspre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Enterprise migration to OpenClaw exceeds 50% of new agent deployments at top-10 vendorspre #2 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Major SaaS vendor reports >10% revenue impact attributed to OpenClaw substitutionpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cumulative consumer-side OpenClaw deployments cross 10 million userscascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-16 — AI venture funding 2026 H1 exceeds $200B globallypre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Open-weight frontier model released by sub-$10M labpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Solo / small-team product reaches ≥100K MAU on agent stackpre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — PDI gauntlet: Top 10 AI products built with <$1M founding capital by 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Major analyst report or central-bank speech reframes compute / energy as scarce factor of productionpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — US grid interconnect queue or curtailment data shows binding compute-power gappre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Critical-mineral concentration crisis intensifies (rare-earth / cobalt / lithium)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Compute-credits / energy-tokens emerge as observed alternative-currency settlementcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — OECD or IMF working paper measures factor-price shift toward energy/computecascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Industrial 3D printing capex exceeds $25B globally in 2026pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Molecular manufacturing public demonstration (sub-nanometer assembly)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Consumer-good marginal cost benchmark (3D-printed shoe/tool) hits sub-$5pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Mainstream economists adopt 'near-zero marginal cost' framing in 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-03-12 — Major frontier-lab CEO publicly states 'capital may be mortal' or equivalentpre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Major US wealth-tax / capital-redistribution proposal advances in Congresspre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Billionaire / equity-holder loss event tied to AI labor pushbackcascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Anti-trust / structural-reform legislation targeting AI-monopolist concentrationcascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Capital share of GDP begins multi-quarter decline for first time since 1970spre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — X-Prize launches new Abundance prize specifically targeting integrated $250/mo housing-food-energy stackpre #5 · pending · 2027-06-24 — Elon Musk believes robot building robot is imminentpre #4 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.pre #3 · pending · 2029-09-15 — First demonstration site delivers integrated housing+food+energy bundle at <$500/mo (halfway milestone)pre #2 · pending · 2031-11-12 — Free electricity from renewables/nuclear in data-center-host communities triggers cost-of-living floorpre #1 · pending · 2032-12-31 — X-Prize-style competition winner achieves $250/mo target (typical 6-7yr launch-to-win cadence)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — XPRIZE Wildfire $11M competition awards 2026 finalist winnerspre #4 · pending · 2026-11-15 — XPRIZE Water Scarcity semifinals testing begins ($119M competition)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — XPRIZE launches new $100M+ competition explicitly tied to fundamental AI/AGI safety or grand-challengepre #2 · pending · 2028-04-28 — Multi-XPRIZE winners attract follow-on commercial deployment >=$1B aggregatepre #1 · pending · 2028-08-13 — Public-narrative shift: mainstream coverage frames XPRIZE-style approaches as default for civilizational challengescascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Sam Altman / OpenAI publicly proposes Universal Basic Compute (UBC) policy frameworkpre #4 · pending · 2028-12-31 — First national or sub-national AI compute / dividend pilot enactedpre #3 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Tax-and-distribute proposal targeting AI/compute economic rents reaches active legislative debatepre #2 · pending · 2032-12-31 — First G7 country implements national AI dividend or UBC at scalepre #1 · pending · 2036-01-01 — OECD-wide AI-displacement-driven income support reaches 100M+ recipientscascade #1 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2026pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — U6 underemployment rate crosses 9% sustained for 2+ monthspre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major US protest event explicitly framed as 'AI job loss' organizedpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — NBER recession declaration for 2026 or 2027pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Pincus/Donovan publicly announces wealth-pod structurepre #1 · pending · 2026-06-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — First annual disbursement to 44 recipients (4% cash + 1% expansion pool)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Pod publishes baseline wellbeing/income measurement of 44 recipientscascade #3 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First-year recipient outcomes publicly reportedcascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-14 — Expansion pool funds second podcascade #5 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #6 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.pre #6 · pending · 2029-12-31 — World Bank or IMF reports a single-year world real GDP growth >=6%pre #5 · pending · 2029-12-31 — AGI/ASI declared by a major AI lab and accepted by independent benchmark consortiumpre #4 · pending · 2030-03-05 — US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.pre #3 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Optimus / Figure / Apptronik humanoid-robot annual production crosses 1 million units (any single manufacturer)pre #2 · pending · 2031-07-02 — Global services-export prices collapse >=40% as AI knowledge-work substitution scalespre #1 · pending · 2032-03-25 — UBI/stimulus needed in 1-3 year timeframe, UBS in 3-8 yearspre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Washington State Evergreen Basic Income Pilot final report (Dec 2026) recommends ongoing programpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal Guaranteed Income Pilot Program Act of 2025 (H.R.5830) reaches committee markup or floor votepre #4 · pending · 2028-12-31 — AI-driven unemployment crosses 6% national rate, formally cited by BLS or Treasury as driverpre #3 · pending · 2029-12-31 — At least one US state enacts a permanent (non-pilot) guaranteed-income / UBI statute funded statewidepre #2 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Florida/Illinois-style UBI prohibition spread reverses; pre-emption laws repealed in any statepre #1 · pending · 2031-12-31 — Federal stimulus / direct-payment program triggered specifically by AI-displacement framing (not pandemic, not recessioncascade #1 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #2 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Tesla Optimus 3 enters productioncascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — US CPI core inflation drops below 2% YoYcascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Goods-price PPI declines YoY for >=2 consecutive quarterscascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Fed funds rate cut to <2% citing AI productivity disinflationcascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Real GDP growth exceeds 5% sustained 4 quarterscascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #3 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Anthropic CEO restates AGI 2026-2027 timeline at major venuepre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Frontier model achieves novel scientific insight (Altman 2026 prediction)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — G20 / OECD policy paper acknowledges money/work decoupling scenariocascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Macro indicator: real wage / consumption ratios show AI-era distortioncascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-03-03 — Goldman: AI productivity contribution near-zero (0.1-0.2pp GDP)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Treasury auction stress event (≥10y yield spike >25bps in week)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major fiscal-AI policy proposal in Congresscascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Real GDP growth from AI investment exceeds 1pp/yr in 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-08-28 — Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod)pre #5 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Annual US real GDP growth crosses 5% (first sustained quarterly print) attributed to AI productivitypre #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Annual global real GDP growth crosses 6% — first time since 1973pre #2 · pending · 2029-11-01 — Triple-digit GDP growth is possible in the next 5 years due to AI.pre #1 · pending · 2030-03-05 — US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.cascade #1 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Triple-digit (100%+) US GDP growth realized within 5 years of original Musk claim (full path-dependence event)pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-15 — OpenAI / Anthropic / Tesla CEO public statement that money is becoming less relevantpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major government formally proposes UBI / AI dividend pilotcascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — AI white-collar displacement crosses measurable threshold (BLS or McKinsey data)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Public AI-dividend / token tax legislative proposal in US Congresspre #5 · pending · 2026-09-29 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First public claim by major economist or central banker that AI is meaningfully shifting the long-run growth trajectorypre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Macro literature publishes formal critique of 1000x economy thesispre #1 · pending · 2027-07-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — AI-driven productivity growth shows up in advanced-economy TFP statistics (sustained >2% TFP growth for 3 consecutive yecascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Energy-output decoupling milestone: global TWh growth keeps pace with GDP without proportional emissionscascade #3 · pending · 2031-01-01 — Cascade: post-scarcity policy frameworks debated in G7 / G20cascade #4 · pending · 2035-07-02 — Global nominal GDP doubles vs 2024 baseline (2024 nominal world GDP ~$110T → ~$220T)pre #6 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2028pre #5 · pending · 2029-10-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2029-12-31 — World GDP growth rate sustains >=4% annualized for 3+ consecutive yearspre #3 · pending · 2031-09-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2032-03-31 — Per-capita global GDP doubles relative to 2025 baselinepre #1 · pending · 2032-07-01 — 10x GDP language enters mainstream economic forecasting (IMF, OECD, BIS) baseline scenarioscascade #1 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-16 — AI-driven structural disinflation observable in CPI/PPI data (sustained 5-12% logistics/manufacturing cost compression)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Electricity becomes binding constraint on AI / production cost stack (Morgan Stanley / Goldman flag)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tech-giant capex tops $700B (2026 — marks compute deflation flywheel)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Specific consumer-good category shows AI-driven price compression to within ~2x of energy+materials costcascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Charles I. Jones-style endogenous-growth model with AI-driven cost-collapse cited by Fed / CBOcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Concurrent mass-layoff cycle Q1 2026 (Block 40%, Atlassian 1,600+, Salesforce, Klarna, etc.)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Hyperscaler capex concentration: top-5 firms account for >70% of US AI capexcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI-native startup count crosses 50,000 (Schmidt 'large number of very small companies')cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — AI capex contributes 1.1% to GDP growth in H1 2025 baselinepre #5 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Data center construction hits $40B annual rate (June 2025 baseline)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Q1 2026 AI investments drive 75% of GDP increasepre #1 · pending · 2026-06-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — 2026 hyperscaler AI capex reaches $700B (~doubles 2025)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Global data center capex CAGR confirms 21% trajectory toward $1.2T by 2029cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Construction subsegment 'data center' formally separated from 'office' in BEA datacascade #4 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #5 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).pre #6 · pending · 2028-06-23 — The old (non-AGI insurance) will go away faster than people think, but the new is much bigger than the old.pre #5 · pending · 2028-09-30 — First documented productivity surge of >=2x in a measured industry attributable to AIpre #4 · pending · 2030-06-23 — There will be UBI at the end of this cycle, plus abundance and massively more opportunity than job loss.pre #3 · pending · 2031-01-01 — Robotics + humanoid sector reaches $100B annual revenuepre #2 · pending · 2032-03-16 — Total global household wealth crosses $1.5 quadrillion (50% of 10x ambition)pre #1 · pending · 2032-03-31 — Global GDP growth rate doubles vs 2020s baselinecascade #1 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #2 · pending · 2046-07-24 — Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very differentcascade #3 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-17 — Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity.cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2026-08-16 — S&P 500 hits new all-time high concurrent with rising tech layoffspre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tech sector announces 55K-120K net layoffs in 2026 with concurrent AI capexpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Anthropic Economic Index documents AI-driven occupational displacement in 5 or more BLS categoriespre #1 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Real median W-2 wages decline year-over-year while corporate profits hit recordcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI-managed enterprise agent crosses verified $1B in autonomous purchasing/procurement decisions in single yearpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Public AI-managed investment fund (BlackRock Aladdin Auto, JPMorgan IndexGPT, or new entrant) crosses $100B AUMpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Frontier-model agent autonomously runs an SEC-registered fund or RIA business unitcascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Federal Reserve, Treasury, or major central bank publishes formal study on AI agents as systemic financial-market actorscascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Federal regulator opens formal rulemaking or enforcement action specifically targeting AI agents in capital allocationcascade #3 · pending · 2029-03-16 — S&P 500 or major economic index includes AI-managed entity as constituentcascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Computershare 2027 survey: equity-plan participation among employers exceeds 90%pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Federal or state legislation introduced for AI-dividend or worker-equity-share programpre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major union (UAW, SAG-AFTRA, Teamsters) negotiates AI-equity clause in CBApre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Employee Ownership Fairness Act or successor legislation passespre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — ESOP participant count grows >10% above 2026 baseline of 15.1Mpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If no federal legislation moves and ESOP growth flatlines through 2027, claim direction weakenspre #6 · miss · 2023-09-04 — IPBES authoritative figure is $423B/year (NOT $5.4T)pre #5 · hit · 2023-09-04 — Costs quadrupled every decade since 1970pre #4 · hit · 2025-05-15 — Phys.org May 2025 study cumulative cost since 1960 exceeds $2.2Tpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missioncascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major government allocates >$1B specifically to invasive species controlcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Colossal Biosciences or competitor announces commercial invasive species removal contractcascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Updated IPBES estimate publishes in next assessment cyclecascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #6 · miss · 2025-11-30 — USDA NIFA estimates US invasive species impact at $137B/year (NOT $500B)pre #5 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Global biological invasion costs reach US$ 26B+/year in 2010spre #4 · hit · 2025-12-31 — North America cumulative invasion cost crosses $1.3T (1960-2017)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missioncascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — USDA invasive species program funding increasecascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Colossal Biosciences expands de-extinction work as invasive species responsecascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Colossal Biosciences or Ben Lamm publicly announces gene-drive commercial business unitcascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Gene-drive Phase III mosquito field trial starts in sub-Saharan Africacascade #3 · pending · 2027-12-16 — International gene-drive governance framework formalized (Convention on Biological Diversity / WHO)cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — First gene-drive-derived commercial product (mosquito control, agricultural pest control) shipscascade #5 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Cascade: Gene-drive market sizing reports cumulative TAM > $100B in named reportcascade #6 · pending · 2031-12-31 — Cascade: Major rogue or unauthorized gene-drive release becomes geopolitical incidentpre #6 · pending · 2029-11-01 — Triple-digit GDP growth is possible in the next 5 years due to AI.pre #5 · pending · 2030-03-05 — US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.pre #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — AI productivity contribution to global growth measured at >=1pp annualpre #3 · pending · 2032-03-25 — UBI/stimulus needed in 1-3 year timeframe, UBS in 3-8 yearspre #2 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Global GDP growth crosses 10% calendar yearpre #1 · pending · 2033-08-28 — Economy will be 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number)cascade #1 · pending · 2036-12-31 — Global GDP nominal value crosses 10x 2025 baseline (~$1,150T)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Sam Altman / Dario Amodei / Demis Hassabis publicly endorse zero-marginal-cost framingpre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Cost-of-intelligence per token falls 10x year-over-yearpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Mainstream-economist counter-argument published (Krugman / Acemoglu / Summers)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major AI service rolls out free unlimited tier to >100M userscascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Energy / compute scarcity contradicts 'zero marginal cost' narrativecascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-30 — We are currently in AI hard takeoffpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First US AI-displacement legislative bill formally introduced in Congresspre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First state-level AI displacement payment program enactedpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — BLS or independent labor research confirms >100K AI-displacement layoffs in single quarterpre #2 · pending · 2028-06-16 — US unemployment rate exceeds 6% with non-cyclical characterizationpre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Federal stimulus check or transfer program enacted >=$1,000 per adultcascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-02 — AI-tax or compute-tax framework adopted federally to fund transferscascade #2 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #5 · hit · 2026-02-15 — First major anti-AI protest in London draws hundreds at OpenAI/DeepMind/Meta HQpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Stanford AI Index 2026: Only 38% of Americans positive on AI (record low)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-21 — 142+ activist groups in 24 states organize against AI infrastructurepre #2 · hit · 2026-04-15 — AI data center backlash turns violent — first documented act of sabotagepre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Major G7 country enacts AI reform package (UBI, AI dividend, or compute tax)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Leading AI lab (OpenAI/Anthropic/Google) publicly proposes Universal Basic Compute mechanismpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major economic body (IMF/OECD/WEF) publishes formal 'post-scarcity' or 'capitalism 2.0' frameworkpre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — US/EU congressional hearing dedicated to post-AI economic structurepre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First national pilot of UBI/UBC explicitly tied to AI productivity dividendspre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If by end-2027 no national-level pilot has launched, 'will emerge' becomes unrealistic by window closecascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-16 — Mainstream presidential-tier candidate adopts post-scarcity platform plankcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First major 2028 candidate launches campaign with explicit cash-transfer plank ($1k+/mo)pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-15 — At least 3 declared 2028 presidential candidates publicly endorse cash-transfer programspre #3 · pending · 2027-12-16 — First primary debate features bidding-war on UBI amounts ($10k vs $12k vs $15k)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Net new state-level guaranteed-income pilots cross 50 (vs ~30 baseline 2025)pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-11 — 2028 winning ticket implements one-time stimulus check >= $5,000 in first 100 dayscascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — GPT-5.5 / Claude / Gemini 3 enable single-founder agentic businesses at scalepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — AI-native solo entrepreneurs cross $1M ARR threshold (more than 100 documented cases)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Anti-AI sentiment / political backlash escalates beyond Sam Altman attackcascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Major UBI pilot or social-contract policy proposal advances in target windowcascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-14 — BLS data shows non-employer business formation surge attributed to AIcascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Scenario fires: Major-country AI pause beginning 2026pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First federal-agency-headcount cut publicly attributed to AI automationpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First federal agency reports >= 50% of front-line case work touched by AI agentspre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — First state-level UBI/cash-transfer pilot funded with federal AI-productivity offsetscascade #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Federal cash-transfer or refundable-credit law signed (UBI-style ground floor)cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Global AI economic contribution exceeds $19.9T cumulative through 2030 (IDC base)pre #5 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Sustained global GDP growth ≥5%/year for 3 consecutive years driven by AI productivitypre #4 · pending · 2032-03-25 — UBI/stimulus needed in 1-3 year timeframe, UBS in 3-8 yearspre #3 · pending · 2033-08-28 — Economy will be 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number)pre #2 · pending · 2035-07-02 — Global GDP doubles vs 2025 baseline (~$110T → $220T nominal, signaling 10x trajectory off-track)pre #1 · pending · 2036-07-01 — Global GDP reaches 10x of 2025 baseline (~$1.1 quadrillion nominal) — Musk's full claimpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate prints 2.0% — well below 5-6.2% claimpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Goldman Sachs raises 2026 GDP forecast above consensuspre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Q2 2026 GDP advance estimate releasepre #2 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Enterprise SaaS revenue collapse evidence emerges in Q2 2026 reportspre #1 · pending · 2026-08-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Q3 2026 GDP advance estimate releasepre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — AI capex contributes >=20% of total US GDP growthpre #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Global data-center buildout commitments cross $2.9T cumulative through 2028pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Investment-grade credit spreads widen on AI-related issuance volumecascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major central bank or IMF publication treats AI as standalone macro factorpre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Inference cost declines 10x annually sustainedpre #5 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Compute throughput, not cognition, becomes named bottleneck in major economic forecastpre #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Annual GPU shipment growth exceeds 50% YoYpre #3 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Inference cost reaches under $0.01/M tokens (5-year forecast met)pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2029-09-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2030-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030pre #1 · pending · 2031-07-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-07-02 — First major developed economy reports negative working-age-population growth >2 yrspre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2027pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Inflation persistence above Fed 2% target driven by labor scarcity (not energy / supply)pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — US labor-force participation rate falls below 60% (from 62.5%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-04-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · overdue · 2024-08-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · hit · 2024-09-12 — Salesforce Agentforce consumption-pricing pivot announcedpre #2 · overdue · 2025-03-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-10-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major SaaS vendor reports YoY net revenue retention declinecascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major SaaS company (top 25 by revenue) acquired or restructured citing AI displacementcascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Outcome-based / agent-based pricing exceeds 25% of new SaaS dealspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-28 — AI clone leads public-company earnings call (AI-CEO proxy event)pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First fully-AI-operated entity reports ≥$10M annual revenuepre #2 · pending · 2027-08-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — AI-operated entity reaches billion-dollar valuation (Mostaque's 'AI billionaire')pre #6 · hit · 2026-05-01 — AI agent registers EIN, opens bank account, and operates as autonomous corporationpre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — First single-founder company achieves $1B annualized revenuepre #2 · pending · 2027-02-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI-operated company crosses $1B valuation with no human CEOpre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2025-12-01 — Salesforce / McKinsey / Cisco surveys show >=50% of execs say agentic AI critical to survival by 2027pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-29 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Agentic AI deployment crosses 50% adoption among Fortune 500pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First publicly-traded ExO-native enterprise IPOs at $10B+ valuationcascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Aggregate W-2 employment in Fortune 500 declines >=5% YoYpre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Alphabet long-term debt quadrupled to $46.5B in 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Hyperscalers raised $108B in debt during 2025 alonepre #4 · hit · 2026-02-06 — Hyperscaler 2026 capex aggregate confirmed >$600Bpre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Goldman: hyperscaler capex 2025-2027 will reach $1.15T (vs $477B 2022-24)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Q1-Q2 2026 hyperscaler earnings reaffirm capex guidance unchanged or upcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Credit markets show stress: hyperscaler bond spreads widen >50bps in 2026pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Big-4 consultancy launches outcome-based AI pricing pilotcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Major SaaS company announces shift to usage/outcome pricingcascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Hyperscaler (AWS, Azure, GCP) launches outcome-based AI service tiercascade #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Industry analyst declares 'outcome economy' as dominant pricing trendpre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Puget Sound Energy multi-year residential rate hike approved by WA UTCpre #5 · pending · 2027-01-15 — WA HB 2515 / SB 6171 reintroduced in 2027 session after 2026 failurepre #4 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Voter-facing PAC backlash translates into ballot measure or moratoriumpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Similar rate-case filings in Virginia / Ohio / Arizona — DC corridor statespre #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — EIA confirms WA residential rate trajectory crosses +20% cumulative by mid-2027cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-02 — WA residential prices reach +30% above 2024 baselinecascade #2 · pending · 2029-09-15 — DC share of WA electricity reaches 13% (vs 6% in 2023)pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Data center occupancy peaks ~95% late 2026, moderates starting 2027pre #5 · pending · 2028-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Blackwell/Rubin GPU spot prices fall >30% from 2026 peak ASPpre #3 · pending · 2029-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-16 — First major US power-PPA gets renegotiated downward by hyperscalerpre #1 · pending · 2030-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Deloitte/EY full-year 2026 GDP forecasts converge at ~2.0%pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — BEA Q1 2026 advance estimate: 2.0% real GDP growthpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Q1 2026 AI capex contributed 75% of GDP increasepre #1 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: AI-capex slowdown narrative emerges in 2H 2026 commentarycascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AI productivity gains lag — show up in 2027+ datacascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Full-year 2026 GDP final reading lands 1.6-2.5%pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anduril S-1 filed (first a16z American Dynamism portfolio IPO candidate)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — a16z American Dynamism Fund III closes >=$1.5B (validates LP demand for thesis)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Hadrian or other a16z American Dynamism portfolio company files S-1 ahead of Andurilpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First a16z American Dynamism portfolio company prices IPO and begins tradingpre #2 · pending · 2027-11-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — a16z allocates $1.7B to AI infrastructure within $15B fundpre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Hadrian builds out 5 additional AI-driven military factoriespre #4 · pending · 2026-11-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First a16z-backed factory-as-product company crosses $500M annualized revenuepre #2 · pending · 2027-09-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-07-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — First Factory-as-Product company crosses $1B revenue thresholdcascade #2 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Factory-is-the-Product model adopted broadly across industrial manufacturingpre #6 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Global GDP measurement revised upward >=3% from 2025 projection due to AIpre #5 · pending · 2030-01-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2031-12-31 — Scenario fires: No NBER recession through 2031pre #3 · pending · 2032-01-01 — 5x GDP scenarios become standard high-side projection in IMF/OECD/BIS long-horizon outlookspre #2 · pending · 2032-01-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2032-12-31 — World GDP doubles relative to 2025 baseline ($100T → $200T constant USD)target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift
94 plotted · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior.
CRWV-impacting (3)
INF_032
ARGAN · CMI · CORZ · CRWV
Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Washington state household electricity costs rose 10.3% from 2024 to 2025 directly tied to infrastructure strain, with utility-proposed rate increases projecting residential price...
78% → 54% · resolves 2029-12
-24pp
ROB_020
ARGAN · CMI · CORZ · CRWV
The 'Factory-is-the-Product' model will dominate venture-backed manufacturing — the manufacturing process itself becomes a continuous AI-optimized technological product, not merely a site of assembly. a16z predicts AI's 'insatiable need for power' requ...
62% → 43% · resolves 2030-12
-19pp
INF_042
ALAB · AMBA · AMD · ANET
Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an...
62% → 48% · resolves 2032-12
-14pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)
AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.