Timeline Fan

101 of 101 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

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Top predictors
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)
0255075100history230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis✓238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now✓240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months✓AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake✓238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)✓CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20✓AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o✓240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027✓FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna✓AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en✓242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission✓244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years✓241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation✓229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne✓IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct✓SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S✓SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil✓SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on✓232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti✓241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom✓AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026✓242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license✓233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra✓CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val✓246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers).✓238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if)✓247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston✓AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using✓IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do✓AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la✓AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c✓CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba✓247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial✓235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).✓245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE✓CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o✓246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.✓FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-✓ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin✓ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU✓INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva✓INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula✓SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f✓SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.✓INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n✓229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.✓248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.✓248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.✓ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence-✓CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to✓235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.✓SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc✓SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f✓237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca✓238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days✓232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.✓241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long✓245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed✓SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme✓248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.✓SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200✓229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.✓CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re✓CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi✓CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr✓SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate✓INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup✓INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor✓SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.✓SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying✓SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu✓SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual✓231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.✗231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.✗235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.✗244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years◐239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world◐INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol◐232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani◐236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours◐SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad◐AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey◐238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi◐231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.◐CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.◐AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree◐246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).◐247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently◐245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus◐INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn◐INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat◐246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.◐INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob◐SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se◐ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar◐INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await◐SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr◐INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive◐SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na◐SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u◐SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast◐SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10◐SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci◐CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go◐INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 —◐INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight◐INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive◐SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a◐Jan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2027FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2028FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2029FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2030FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2031FebMarAprMayJuntodaypre #6 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Fortune-1000 firm publicly automates >= 50% of executive committee functions with AIpre #5 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First publicly disclosed Fortune-500 CEO (or interim CEO) replaced by AI agent systempre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — BLS reports manual-labor occupations growing faster than knowledge-worker occupations in 2027-2028pre #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Unskilled-labor humanoid-robot deployment in retail/hospitality remains <5% of US workforcepre #2 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Median CEO compensation in S&P 500 declines >= 20% from 2024 baselinepre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — First humanoid robot achieves >= 90% of human dexterity in unstructured manual tasks (independent benchmark)cascade #1 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Cumulative tech layoffs cross 200K for 2026pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BLS labor productivity shows 3-10x productivity gain in AI-exposed rolescascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tier-1 tech company publicly mandates 'AI-augmented productivity expectations' i.e. higher outputpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-31 — BLS productivity report shows hours-per-worker holding flat or rising despite AI adoptionpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — ADP/large-employer survey shows AI-augmented roles working longer hours than peerspre #2 · pending · 2027-10-30 — 996/997 schedule normalization in US tech firms reportedpre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — OECD or IMF working paper documents AI-driven hours expansion (vs reduction)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Prompt Engineer becomes formally tracked job category (135.8% YoY growth)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Context Engineer / RAG Engineer roles emerge as distinct from prompt engineerpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Chief AI Officer (CAIO/CAIRO) becomes standardized C-suite role at S&P 500 companiespre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Data-rights brokerage emerges as formal commercial categorypre #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — BLS adds new job classifications for AI-specific roles in O*NET databasepre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Gartner: 20% of orgs use AI to flatten middle managementpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Entry-level white-collar hiring drops 25% YoY in BLS datapre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Solo-founder companies reach $10M+ ARRpre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Major Fortune 500 firm announces 50%+ headcount reduction citing AIpre #1 · pending · 2028-09-30 — Self-employment / 1099 share of US workforce crosses 40%cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Single-year AI-attributed corporate layoffs in US exceed 300Kpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BLS unemployment rate breaches 5.5% with AI displacement cited in FOMC commentarypre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Entry-level white-collar hiring drops >=40% YoY in S&P 500 — Fortune 'killing the path to first job' thesis confirmedpre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Federal AI displacement policy (UBI pilot, retraining act, or AI-tax) signed into lawpre #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Cascade: net new job creation (gross creation minus AI displacement) goes negative for 4+ consecutive quarterscascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US AI-attributed layoffs cross 500K cumulativepre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First clear sectoral AI-driven employment decline (legal, software, customer service)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-31 — BLS unemployment rate stays below 6% during initial AI-displacement wavepre #2 · pending · 2028-08-30 — No single month sees >500K AI-attributed layoffs (no shock event)pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cumulative AI-attributed displacement reaches 5M jobs without unemployment spike >7%pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major US city sees youth-led AI/jobs protest >5,000 attendeespre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Federal policy response: youth-targeted UBI pilot or jobs guarantee program launchedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Mainstream-press cover-story: "What is human purpose in age of AI?"pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — BLS US labor force participation prints below 62% for 3 consecutive monthspre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — UBI pilot announced at federal or major-state levelcascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: aggregate "all-AI agent army" headcount across labs > human workforce of those labscascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — 55,000 AI-attributed job losses tallied for 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-01-04 — Goldman Sachs forecasts AI-led layoffs continue into 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — McKinsey reports workers spend 30-40% less on routine taskscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major bank/insurance company announces >25% headcount reduction tied to AIcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Forward-looking 3x productivity validation by mid-2027cascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — AI-driven margin expansion: top-5 US banks report ROE >18% (sustained two consecutive years)pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Top-3 US bank reports trailing-twelve-month revenue ≥$150Bcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-30 — No top-10 US bank or insurer reports 3x revenue growth over any 24-month window through 2028cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Average net productivity increase from AI remains <15% in 2027 enterprise surveys (vs hyped 30-50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Fortune 500 mass-layoff wave attributable to AI displacement does NOT materialize at >5% headcount level by 2028cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI tool penetration: >=30% of working-age adults using generative AI weekly for production workpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Inequality measure: Top 1% of creators capture >=80% of creator economy incomepre #3 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Creator economy headcount crosses 100M globally (vs ~50M in 2024)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — UBI/non-work-income recipients in US >=10M people (vs <500K in 2025)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Time-use survey shows screen/passive-consumption hours per capita rises >=15% vs 2025cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Class of 2026 worst job market for new grads since pandemic onset (NACE survey)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Junior tech postings drop ≥50% from 2024 baselinepre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Salesforce hiring 1,000 new graduates + Amazon 11,000 SWE interns 2026 — entrepreneurial/builder tier preservedpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Youth unemployment exceeds 10% (US 16-24) — ServiceNow CEO 30% warning materializes partwaypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-05-01 — MoonAgents Card and a16z stablecoin-agent thesis publicly launchpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — BLS reports new business formation continues elevated through AI-tooling adoption windowpre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Stablecoin annual transaction volume exceeds $50 trillionpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BLS unemployment rate stays below 5.5% through entire window despite AI displacement narrativepre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First publicly documented case of single-founder >$10M ARR business operated >50% by AI agentspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · partial · 2026-04-30 — Big 4 / MBB explicitly announce AI-driven entry-level hiring freeze or restructurepre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Entry-level white-collar postings drop >25% YoY on LinkedIn / Indeedpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI-fluency requirement appears in >50% of entry-level postingspre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — UBI / Public Wealth Fund / 4-day workweek policy proposals enter major-party platformscascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — BLS / OECD entry-level unemployment rate rises >2% above experienced-worker ratecascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — AI fluency becomes formal performance review criterion at Fortune 500pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI-native employee compensation premium emerges in salary surveyscascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Fortune 500 AI-reskilling adoption rate reaches 60%+ of major companiespre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Skill-intelligence platforms replace traditional LMS at scalecascade #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — K-12 / university curricula formally pivot to AI-native skillscascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Waymo expands to Philadelphia + 5 additional metros, fleet >5000 robotaxispre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Frontline rideshare driver job count contracts ≥30% in robotaxi-enabled metros (cumulative 2026-2028)cascade #1 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #2 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Executives report 40% of workforce needs reskilling within 3 yearspre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cisco-style industry consensus: >=90% of tech roles require AI reskillingpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — IBM commits to skill 2M people in AI by end of 2026pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Federal/state workforce reskilling program reaches >=1M enrolleescascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-30 — PwC ChatGPT Enterprise reseller volume scales as Big-4 AI revenue linepre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Big-4 + MBB collective AI investment crosses $15B cumulativepre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — OpenAI consulting division pressures Big-4 advisory pricingpre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Accenture AI Refinery client count crosses 5,000 enterprisescascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Big-4 advisory revenue grows >=20% YoY driven by AI transformation contractscascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-15 — Big Four publicly disclose AI agent doing audit work (workpaper generation / variance analysis)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cumulative Big Four audit-tech headcount reduction >=50% from 2024 baselinepre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — PCAOB or SEC publishes guidance on AI-assisted audit reliancecascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — BLS unemployment rate spikes >=1% YoY in white-collar BLS occupational categoriespre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Personal bankruptcy filings rise >=25% YoY (Yang's predicted second-order effect)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Cascade: First major US political party adopts UBI-like policy plank in 2028 cyclepre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: Aggregate white-collar headcount in S&P 500 declines >=10% from 2025 peakcascade #1 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Cumulative tech layoffs since 2020 cross 1 millionpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Major federal AI consumer-protection regulation proposedpre #1 · pending · 2028-06-16 — U-3 unemployment rate crosses 5.5%cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — 60% of hiring managers planning AI-driven layoffs in 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — 30% of companies planning AI-driven layoffs (McKinsey state-of-AI)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: AI-attributed layoffs cross 200K in 2026 single yearcascade #3 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-01 — 30-month sustained contraction in white-collar payrolls (continuation of 29-mo trend)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic Economic Index quarterly update shows entry-level white-collar exposure wideningpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BLS unemployment rate for college grads age 22-25 crosses 6%pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Big-four consultancy or top law firm announces >25% reduction in entry-level hiring classpre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — If thesis right: US headline unemployment crosses 7% during 2028-2030cascade #1 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-20 — Meta cuts 10% of workforce (~8,000) starting May 20, 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Big Freeze: 32%+ of companies plan AI-driven headcount reductioncascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Total 2026 mass layoffs cross 1.5M with AI cited in >10%cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: white-collar U-3 unemployment crosses 4.5% by mid-2027pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — BLS occupational employment survey shows ≥3% drop in white-collar OES categoriespre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Unemployment rate rises ≥1.5pp from 4.1% baselinepre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Major commercial real-estate vacancy spike (>25% Class-A office)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — 20-50% of 70M office workers displaced (resolution criterion)cascade #2 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Top-quintile household services spending share rises ≥20%pre #1 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Personal-care + private-household occupations grow ≥15% vs 2024 baselinecascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Number of S&P 500 CEOs publicly citing AI as reason for own/peer departure crosses 10pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Conference Board / WEF report explicitly ranks CEO role as latest-to-automatepre #3 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Mid/junior management automation rate exceeds CEO automation rate in BLS or McKinsey studypre #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — First public-listed company appoints AI as named co-CEO or 'AI CEO' rolepre #1 · pending · 2027-10-31 — If middle-management displacement >25% but CEO turnover normal by Q4 2027, claim hits earlycascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Uber commits >$1B capital to robotaxi fleet purchasespre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Gridwise reports ≥10% rideshare driver earnings drop in AV citiespre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Uber CEO formally guides drivers as transition risk in 10K filingpre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Robotaxi share crosses 8% of US ridehail marketcascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Robotaxi displacement of frontline driving jobs reaches 20% in test citiescascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI acquires OpenClaw (open-source local frontier model)pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Fortune 500 enterprise discloses >=10,000 net job reductions tied to OpenClaw / agent rolloutcascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — S&P 500 aggregate productivity +10% YoY attributed to agentic AI deploymentcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Salesforce Agentforce ARR crosses $1B with 30k+ customerspre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Single enterprise publicly reports >1 agent per employee deployedpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 40% of Global 2000 roles engage with AI agents day-to-daypre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Gartner forecasts 40% of enterprise apps embed task-specific AI agentspre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Org charts published with named AI agent roles by major firmcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — OpenClaw or peer AI agent platform passes 10M paying users / 100M MAUpre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI-assisted solo-founder / 'one-person unicorn' formation rate hits new highpre #1 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Small-business net-new hiring exceeds FANG layoffs YoYcascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Net job creation > job destruction at AI-displacement-affected industriescascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Mainstream economic narrative shifts to 'AI as net job creator' (cascade)cascade #3 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS software developer employment ticks down YoY for first timepre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Traditional software-engineering job postings decline >20% YoYpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Junior software engineering hiring collapses at FAANG-tier firmspre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Junior/entry-level developer hiring contracts 30%+ at FAANG-tierpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Anthropic/OpenAI claim agentic systems handle full BU-scale workloadspre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — AI agents autonomously ship merged PRs at scale (>10K/day) at a Fortune-500cascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Programmer headcount roughly flat through 2028 — Mostaque prediction MISScascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-02-23 — Khosrowshahi publicly states executives are 'lying' about AI displacementpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Uber discloses 30% AI power-user engineer basecascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-05 — Uber Q3 2026 earnings show employee count changecascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Uber 2026 annual report published with workforce disclosurecascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Sectoral cascade — gig economy peers cite 25%+ AI workforce reductioncascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — US ride-share active driver count remains stable or grows despite Waymo/Tesla expansionpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-22 — Total US vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT) sets record high after autonomous vehicle inflectionpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Long-haul trucking driver count maintained >=90% of 2025 baseline despite AV truckscascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: Rural/non-corridor delivery driver wages rise >=20% as AV concentrates in dense urbancascade #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: Total demand for human-driven services exceeds 2025 levels even at 50% AV market sharecascade #3 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — BLS occupation-level automation index shows ≥40% white-collar tasks automatablepre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cumulative AI-attributable white-collar job loss crosses 1Mcascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — AI capex reaches 2% of US GDP (~$650B)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First major frontier-lab government coordination event (no firewall in policy)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Universal income / wage-replacement pilot program launched in any G20 nationpre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — BLS unemployment rate exceeds 6% with explicit AI attribution in commentarypre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Goldman Sachs / BLS update to AI-displacement model showing 25% of work hours automatedpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Nvidia-style productivity case study replicates — second Fortune-100 company shows revenue/headcount decouplingpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — BLS Business Formation Statistics show ≥ 5x acceleration in new business applications (gates the "5x more companies" clacascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — US unemployment rate remains within ±1pp of pre-AI baseline through end of target window (employment-flat check)cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Goldman Sachs: AI reduces US monthly payroll by ~16K, +0.1pp unemploymentpre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Uber-Nuro driverless launch in SF (driver-replacement waypoint)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Margin pressure on management drives AI-substitution wave in entry-level white collarpre #2 · pending · 2028-04-30 — US driver workforce (taxi+rideshare+truck) declines >5% YoYpre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Wage gap between AI-augmented and AI-substituted occupations widens >10ppcascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — 43% of Gen Z plans entrepreneurship in 2026 (highest of any generation)pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Counter-evidence: Gen Z entry-level posting share drops below 35%pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Gen Z founder share of new startup formations crosses 30%pre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Younger Gen Z wage growth outpaces older Millennial cohort 2026-2028cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla repurposes Fremont Model S/X line for Optimus productionpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Optimus units perform measurable factory tasks at Tesla plantspre #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Tesla output per employee grows ≥30% YoYpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Tesla's labor productivity outpaces auto-industry peers by ≥2xcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-03 — Tesla Texas factory reduces headcount 22% in 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Tesla cuts >14,000 roles globally in 2025pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Tesla Q2 2026 hiring announcement materializescascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla Optimus production drives >2,000 manufacturing hirescascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cybercab/Robotaxi launch reduces ICE workforce furthercascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Amazon robot count exceeds human warehouse worker count in US fulfillment networkpre #2 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Amazon achieves first 'lights-out' (zero-human) fulfillment shift in major facilitypre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Cascade: Walmart, FedEx, or UPS announces matching robot-majority workforce strategycascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-15 — Cascade: Total US warehouse FTE declines >=15% YoY for first time on recordcascade #2 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #3 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Salesforce, ServiceNow, or comparable platform vendor reports its agent platform replacing >=20% of customer support FTEcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenExO or major consultancy publishes case study of company achieving 50%+ headcount reduction via AI agents while sustcascade #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Salim Ismail or OpenExO publishes data showing average ExO-transformed company runs at 25% of pre-transformation headcoucascade #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — S&P 500 index aggregate revenue per employee rises >25% YoYcascade #5 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Cascade: Total US payroll employment declines >=2% YoY in any rolling 12-month window post-2027cascade #6 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Cascade: Number of US firms with >$10M revenue and <50 employees grows 5x by 2030pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · hit · 2025-08-28 — Software development job postings down 70%+ from 2022 peakcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-14 — Medical school residency match data shows AI-driven specialty shiftcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Law school applicant counts and entry-level associate hiring declinecascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — AI spreadsheet/data agents reach 90% accuracy thresholdcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Junior software dev hiring drops further from -20% baselinecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 80% of enterprise apps embed AI agentscascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Enterprise AI agent investment exceeds $600B in 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Major Fortune 500 firm publicly attributes >5% workforce reduction to AI agents handling SQL/UI/coding workcascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — California SB 951 amends Cal-WARN Act to cover AI-driven displacementpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — First state passes AI-displacement retraining law with employer-funded reskilling mandatecascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Federal DOL launches AI-displaced worker retraining pilot programscascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — 5+ states adopt AI retraining mandates by 2027cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Tech-firm pre-emptive layoffs cluster in Q1-Q2 2026 (>=5 firms with AI cause cited)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — >=5 additional states introduce AI-displacement notice bills in 2026 sessionscascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Senior AI engineer base comp tops $300K at FAANG/frontier labspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Bifurcated tech labor market: generalist SWE comp stagnatescascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Top frontier labs offer ≥$1M total comp packages for senior research engineerscascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Top 1% engineer productivity (LOC/PR throughput) doubles YoYcascade #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: senior tech lead labor share ≥10pp higher in AI-leveraged firmscascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-01 — GitHub Copilot transitions to usage-based billing (token-based)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Top 3 AI coding tools control 70%+ developer market sharecascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Manual code remains majority practice at end of 2026 — Diamandis falsifiedcascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Manual code authoring drops below 30% of new commits at hyperscalerscascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Tech sector AI-attributed job losses cross 75K in H1 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Klarna-style customer service AI replacement scales to 5+ Fortune 1000 companiescascade #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Junior developer hiring rate drops >25% YoYcascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — BLS reports AI-attributed unemployment rate uptickcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal/state UBI or AI displacement tax legislation introducedpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — Customer service / call center employment down >15% YoYpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Tesla Optimus mass production begins in Q3 2026 (>=1,000 units shipped)pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Humanoid robot autonomously completes high-skilled mechanical task (e.g., automotive engine assembly)pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-30 — First skilled-trade union acknowledges automation displacement risk in collective bargainingpre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cognitive AI agents demonstrate >50% replacement rate for entry-level white-collar before humanoid does same for tradespre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — BLS or OECD employment statistics show high-skilled mechanical occupations resilient vs cognitive jobspre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Anthropic Economic Index update shows >25% of measurable work hours AI-touchedpre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Goldman Sachs / McKinsey publishes update confirming 25% automatable-work-hours estimatepre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First major sector reports >40% of work-hours mediated by AI toolspre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Aggregate enterprise AI-tool seat-count exceeds 100M paid users in USpre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — BLS time-use survey shows measurable shift of work-hours from manual tasks to AI-supervisory taskspre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If aggregate AI seat count plateaus below 50M by end-2027, 25% thesis on track to misscascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Klarna reverses AI layoffs, rebuilds human service capacitypre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Gartner predicts 50% of AI-driven layoffs reverse by 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — S&P 500 firm publicly confirms running with <=25% historical headcountcascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-16 — ≥3 Fortune-100 firms cite AI as primary headcount driver in 10-Kpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major employer publicly issues 'AI-only' job postingpre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — First U.S. labor-rights litigation over AI-only hiring practicespre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — AI-driven layoffs cited in BLS Challenger report cross 100K cumulative in 2026pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Customer-service / call-center labor cost displaced >50% in at least one Fortune 500 case studypre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Median knowledge-work labor cost ratio (AI:human) falls below 5%cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Uber operates robotaxis in 15 US/global cities by end of 2026pre #5 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Uber begins scaling global autonomous fleet toward 100,000 vehicles starting 2027pre #4 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Total active drivers on Uber platform globally exceeds 8M (vs ~7.4M in 2024)pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-17 — AV ride-hail surge demand creates 'driver multiplier' — net new gig roles grow despite AV penetrationpre #1 · pending · 2030-10-01 — Hybrid human+AV operations dominant model: 80%+ Uber trips still human-driven by 2030cascade #1 · pending · 2031-07-30 — In 5 years, 70-80% of cars will be autonomous, especially hooked up to your AI.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #4 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Uber-Zoox / Uber-Waymo robotaxi launch in 5+ new cities by year-endcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Driver-survey data (Edison/Pew/QuickTake) reports 20% intent-to-leave annual ratecascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-23 — Uber Q2 2026 / Q3 2026 earnings disclose driver attrition or active-driver countcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS Rideshare-driver category data update through 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Driver-headcount stabilization signal: Uber 2027 disclosed driver count flat or up despite robotaxi growthcascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in USpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Uber announces driver-to-fleet-manager onboarding pilot programpre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First 1,000 driver-to-fleet-manager transitions documentedpre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — AV financing product / loan vehicle available to former rideshare driverscascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Uber reports 10,000+ small-fleet-owner partners in AV economycascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from nowcascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #5 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #5 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Uber-Nuro driverless Lucid robotaxi launches in SF Bay Areapre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Waymo crosses 1M weekly paid robotaxi ridespre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AV chip-supply bottleneck flagged by Uber/Waymo as scaling constraintpre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Uber autonomous fleet target 100,000 vehicles announced for scale-upcascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Driver share of revenue compresses on US ride-hail platformscascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from nowcascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #5 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — BCG: 'AI Will Reshape More Jobs Than It Replaces' publishedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Goldman Sachs: AI subtracts 16K jobs/month, +0.1pp unemploymentpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Aggregate US employment grows YoY despite AI deployment in 2026-2027pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Entry-level postings fall to <35% of all job postingscascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Entry-level white-collar unemployment in 20-30 age cohort stops risingpre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — US unemployment rate stabilizes or declines despite AI rolloutpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Major reskilling-program scale-up by federal/state governments tied to AI displacementpre #3 · pending · 2027-10-30 — BLS reports first quarter where AI-related new occupations exceed displacementspre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If unemployment rises above Amodei 10-20% scenario by end-2027, society-adjustment thesis failspre #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — First peer-reviewed empirical study confirms net job creation in AI-augmented occupationscascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Federal AI-specific worker support legislation introduced with bipartisan co-sponsorshippre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal Reserve Beige Book or FOMC statement formally cites AI labor displacement as macroeconomic concernpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — G7 leaders' summit communique includes substantive AI labor-market adjustment provisionpre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — BLS or OECD reports AI-attributed unemployment rate above 4% in any G7 economypre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Major US state passes AI-displacement-specific UI extension, retraining program, or basic income statutecascade #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Tier-1 social-unrest event (sustained protest, strike, or political movement) explicitly attributed to AI displacementcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Khosrowshahi or peer CEO concedes AI replaces majority of jobs (10y horizon)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Uber driver count grows YoY despite robotaxi/AV pilotscascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-15 — Uber per-employee revenue grows >=20% YoYcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Uber announces dedicated AI-augmented support roles (vs eliminating)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Uber 2026 headcount remains within +/-10% of 2025 baselinecascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — AI-cited layoffs reach 100,000 cumulative through 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-14 — BLS productivity data shows white-collar sector productivity surgecascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — WEF Future of Jobs report quantifies structural displacementcascade #3 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · pending · 2027-02-14 — WEF Future of Jobs 2027 release projects net jobs CREATED by 2030 exceeds displacedpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — BLS 2024-2034 employment projections show total US employment >170M by 2030pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-15 — AI-augmented occupation categories show >5% growth as new job titles emergepre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Transitional unemployment spike in highest-exposure occupations precedes net positive outcomepre #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Goldman Sachs 7% global GDP boost from AI translates to ~$7T cumulative output gain by 2030cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Solo entrepreneur with >=$10M ARR built primarily on AI tools (single-person AI conglomerate)pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Stripe Atlas / LLC formation data shows surge in single-member firmspre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Anthropic Economic Index or McKinsey survey: net job creation among AI-adopting firmspre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — BLS net employment change positive over 24-month window 2026-2028pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Forbes/Fortune profile feature on solo AI-billionaires or near-billionairespre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — US new business formation (Census BFS) sustains >5M filings/year (4-5x baseline)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Ratio of AI-native unicorns to traditional unicorns flips ≥4:1 in single yearcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major-party 2028 candidate openly advocates UBI as AI displacement responsepre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Polling shows majority of voters opposed to white-collar bailouts vs blue-collar reliefcascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Cascade: Means-tested AI displacement aid bill excludes high-income white-collar from reliefcascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BLS unemployment rate stays below 5.0% through 2028pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — New job categories created: BLS adds >=2 new SOC codes for AI-era rolespre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Goldman Sachs, McKinsey, or Anthropic publish revised displacement timeline through 2028pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Job category extinction: BLS occupational data shows >=3 occupations decline >=20%pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Labor force participation rate stays within +/-1pp of 2025 baselinepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-15 — ILO or IMF cross-region report shows African unemployment delta from AI <1pp (vs OECD 2-5pp) over 2026-2027pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Reverse-migration narrative emerges: African diaspora professionals returning home as Western AI-displacement worsenspre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — African economies grow GDP per capita above OECD median in 2027 (relative outperformance during AI transition)cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Top-CS-program new-grad starting-salary stagnates or falls vs 2024pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Coding-task automation reaches ≥50% of routine taskspre #1 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Median elite-CS-grad first-job displaced by AI agent assignmentcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI coding assistant adoption exceeds 80% of professional developers (Stack Overflow / GitHub)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Autonomous coding agents (Devin / Windsurf Cascade) achieve ≥50% SWE-bench verifiedpre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Junior developer hiring (BLS / Indeed / LinkedIn) drops ≥30% YoY for entry-level coding rolescascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Junior software developer (0-3 yr exp) job postings on Indeed/LinkedIn rise YoY for 3 consecutive monthscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS JOLTS Information sector job openings rebound above 2024 baselinecascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Stack Overflow Developer Survey shows entry-level developer share stabilizing or risingcascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Salesforce hires 1,000 new-grad software/AI engineers as Benioff committedcascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal Reserve or BLS publishes follow-on study reaffirming AI-not-driving-junior-dev declinecascade #6 · pending · 2028-10-31 — Cascade: CS undergrad enrollment growth resumes (>=2% YoY) after 2024-25 dippre #6 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — BLS Software Developer occupation employment falls ≥10% YoYpre #4 · pending · 2027-04-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Programmer role shifts to 'conductor' — agent orchestration tools dominatepre #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-16 — 'Vast majority' threshold met — ≥50% programmer displacementpre #4 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-22 — BLS Q1 2026 white-collar employment data releasecascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Cumulative AI-driven layoffs cross 100K in 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — First named F500 cuts ≥30% of legal/marketing/finance workforcecascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — UBI policy proposal advances in major economycascade #4 · pending · 2027-12-15 — AI-infrastructure-specific taxation proposed in U.S./EUpre #6 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — First AI-sector M&A deal exceeding $100B announcedpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Industry-wide L1 customer support headcount declines >=30%pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Single AI-sector M&A deal at or above $500Bpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Federal HR 5830 'Guaranteed Income Pilot Program Act' floor vote in Housepre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Senator-level draft of 'compute-hours' AI labor tax legislationpre #2 · pending · 2027-12-16 — AI-Dividend or token-tax framework appears in major presidential platformpre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First state passes AI-specific labor displacement tax or UBI funding mechanismcascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Federal UBI-adjacent legislation passes after >5% white-collar displacement eventpre #6 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Sequoia/A16Z formally publish 'agentic leverage' underwriting modelpre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Solopreneur stack cost falls below $15K/yr with full agent toolchainpre #4 · pending · 2027-02-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Middle management headcount falls 15%+ at Fortune 500pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First public S-1 / IPO from sub-10-employee company with >$50M ARRpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-24 — Meta + Microsoft 20K combined cuts cite AI as causepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — GPT-5 (or GPT-5.5) frontier reasoning model widely deployed in enterprisepre #4 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Public corporate-collapse signal: >=2 Fortune 500 firms enter restructuring citing AI failurepre #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Cumulative 2026 AI-attributed layoffs cross 500Kcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Cumulative 2026 AI-attributed layoffs reach 1.1M — Blundin specific targetpre #6 · hit · 2026-03-06 — Anthropic Q1 2026 labor market report identifies 4 most-exposed sectorspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Junior SWE employment drops ~20% post-ChatGPTpre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Entry-level postings fall 35% from Jan 2023 baselinepre #2 · pending · 2026-06-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — AI-driven 0.13-0.20% nonfarm-employment displacement confirmedcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: AI-leveraged firms post >=10% productivity gains for retained workerscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Net 4% reduction across AI-exposed sectors confirmed in 2026 BLS datapre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Eric Schmidt projects 30% annual productivity gain from AIpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Frontier lab discloses ≥50% AI-authored code in productionpre #4 · pending · 2026-07-19 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First documented case of AI generating ≥80% of new scientific paper output at major labpre #4 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — BLS publishes Q1 2026 wage data showing data-center technician wage growthcascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Major hyperscaler announces dedicated trade-skills training partnershipcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major union (IBEW, UA) reports 20%+ apprenticeship enrollment growthcascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Six-figure wages disclosed for AI-DC construction tradespre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Tech sector single-month layoffs exceed 45K (March 2026 worst month in 2 years)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS reports >5% YoY decline in entry-level white-collar job postingspre #4 · pending · 2027-05-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Inference cost-per-token drops 10x further by end-2027 (toward electricity floor)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Major economic-policy report attributes >10% white-collar attrition to AIpre #3 · pending · 2026-11-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Challenger Gray attributes >=200K layoffs to AI in single yearpre #4 · pending · 2027-04-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — ADP youth-cohort employment in computer/math drops >=10% YoYpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First quarter of US unemployment rate >=6% with AI cited as primary driverpre #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Diamandis 'Agentic Era' marker — autonomous agents drive >=10% of GDPpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missioncascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Frontier lab announces general-knowledge-worker capability claimcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-30 — BLS shows multiple consecutive quarters of white-collar employment declinecascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major consultancy reports AI-driven cost reduction in target functionscascade #4 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Cumulative knowledge-worker layoffs >250K in 18-month windowcascade #5 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Wage premium for AI-augmented creative roles documentedpre #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — FAANG / frontier AI labs explicitly hire 'product taste' / 'vision' roles at premiumpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-29 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-15 — Cognitive capacity in data centers eclipses human cognition (Altman late-2028 projection)target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift
95 plotted · 6 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior.

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)
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Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.