Timeline Fan

35 of 35 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

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Top predictors
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)
0255075100history230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis✓238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now✓240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months✓AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake✓238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)✓CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20✓AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o✓240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027✓FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna✓AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en✓242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission✓244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years✓241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation✓229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne✓IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct✓SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S✓SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil✓SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on✓232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti✓241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom✓AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026✓242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license✓233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra✓CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val✓246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers).✓238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if)✓247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston✓AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using✓IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do✓AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la✓AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c✓CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba✓247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial✓235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).✓245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE✓CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o✓246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.✓FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-✓ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin✓ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU✓INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva✓INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula✓SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f✓SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.✓INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n✓229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.✓248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.✓248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.✓ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence-✓CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to✓235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.✓SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc✓SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f✓237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca✓238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days✓232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.✓241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long✓245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed✓SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme✓248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.✓SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200✓229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.✓CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re✓CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi✓CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr✓SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate✓INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup✓INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor✓SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.✓SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying✓SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu✓SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual✓231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.✗231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.✗235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.✗244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years◐239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world◐INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol◐232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani◐236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours◐SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad◐AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey◐238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi◐231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.◐CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.◐AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree◐246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).◐247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently◐245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus◐INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn◐INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat◐246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.◐INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob◐SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se◐ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar◐INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await◐SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr◐INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive◐SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na◐SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u◐SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast◐SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10◐SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci◐CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go◐INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 —◐INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight◐INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive◐SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a◐Jan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2027FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2028FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2029FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2030FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2031FebMarAprMayJuntodaypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Waymo targets 1M weekly paid robotaxi rides by end of 2026pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First US state legislates phased restriction or dedicated lanes for human-driven vehiclespre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Insurance industry launches preferred-rate tiering favoring autonomous over human drivingpre #2 · pending · 2028-08-21 — Robotaxi service achieves cost parity with personal vehicle ownership in major US metrospre #1 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Cultural inflection: manual driving framed as risky/elite hobby in mainstream media coveragecascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-19 — Progressive stock down 45% and Allstate down 50%+ from start of 2025pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — US private auto insurance direct-written premiums decline YoY for first time since 2019pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Major P&C insurer announces material auto-insurance business divestiture or runoffpre #6 · pending · 2027-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Robotaxis serve 1%+ of US passenger-milespre #3 · pending · 2028-10-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Major analyst (McKinsey, RethinkX, ARK, BCG) revises baseline AV fleet forecast to 50M or fewer US vehiclespre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — US passenger vehicle fleet declines for 2 consecutive yearscascade #1 · pending · 2029-12-16 — US fleet drops to 20M or fewer passenger vehiclespre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Zipline crosses 10 million cumulative deliveries (5x growth from 2026 base)pre #1 · pending · 2029-02-14 — Zipline daily delivery rate crosses 100,000/day (representing path to 1/sec milestone)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-02 — EH216-S debut sightseeing flight in downtown Shanghai (Huangpu River / Longhua Airport)pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AutoFlight Prosperity 5-passenger eVTOL achieves CAAC airworthiness certificationpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Multi-city Chinese eVTOL taxi commercial revenue services operational across ≥3 hubspre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — China launches 100+ commercial low-altitude flight applications under 2024-2027 Action Plancascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Bureau of Labor Statistics or Uber/Lyft reporting documents >=15% YoY decline in active rideshare drivers in robotaxi-sapre #5 · pending · 2028-01-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Waymo + Tesla combined US AV fleet exceeds 25,000 vehicles (10x current Waymo)pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Major California / state-level legislation passes mandating retraining/transition fund for displaced rideshare driverspre #2 · pending · 2028-12-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Uber CEO or earnings call discloses AV trips exceed 25% of total US ride volumepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-17 — Archer enters FAA Type Inspection Authorization TIA phase with Midnightpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Archer Midnight receives FAA Type Certificationpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — First commercial Archer eVTOL passenger flights in Los Angeles metro areacascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Joby Dubai vertiport network opens, paying-passenger commercial service beginspre #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Archer Midnight enters FAA Stage 4 certificationcascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — First US commercial paying-passenger eVTOL flightcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Joby or Archer secures FAA Type Certification for eVTOLpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-16 — First commercial passenger eVTOL flight in continental U.S.cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — ≥3 LA vertiports operating by Olympics opening (July 2028)cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-07-01 — California enforcement on driverless cars — net regulatory tightening on AVspre #5 · pending · 2026-10-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — AV-only freight / delivery zones launchedpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — First city pilot bans/restricts human driving in geofenced downtown corecascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Insurance pricing diverges — human drivers face material premiumpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-07-01 — California AB 1777 robotaxi enforcement framework takes effect (notices of noncompliance to AV manufacturers)pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — California bill mandating local human operators for robotaxi takeover advances out of committeepre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Waymo expands paid commercial robotaxi service to 7+ cities (including DC, Denver, Detroit, Las Vegas, Nashville, San Dipre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First national TV ad campaign explicitly advocating restriction of human driving in AV-served regionspre #1 · pending · 2030-06-01 — First US state ballot initiative or referendum on banning human driving on specific roadwayscascade #1 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #3 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-17 — Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity.cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Waymo crosses 200M autonomous miles with continued safety performancepre #5 · pending · 2027-02-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Waymo crash-rate metric crosses 95% reduction threshold (matching Blundin claim)pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — Federal/state insurance regulators codify AV safety as superior to human driver baselinepre #6 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Tesla launches unsupervised FSD for consumer vehicles (Q4 2026)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — No US state passes outright ban on human drivingpre #3 · pending · 2027-12-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — AV-only zones / lanes proposed (not bans on humans elsewhere)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Through end of target window, no US state outlaws non-AV drivingpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Joby/Archer commercial piloted passenger service launches in major US metropre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — First commercial autonomous eVTOL cargo flight (Q4 2026 controlled corridor)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-01 — First autonomous passenger eVTOL flight (no pilot on board) in commercial usecascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: Autonomous eVTOL operations exceed piloted operations in any one US metrocascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — First Tesla Cybercab production VIN rolls off linepre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-15 — Tesla confirms <$30K retail price at production VIN milestonepre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Cybercab mass production ramp at Giga Texas (10-min cycle time)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First public Cybercab delivery / handover to customer or robotaxi fleetcascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Cascade: Stocktwits/fund-manager prediction of late-2026 delay materializescascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: Tesla Cybercab SKU added to Tesla.com configurator with delivery slotspre #6 · hit · 2026-01-27 — Waymo charges $19.69/ride avg, $2-3/mile (Q1 2026 baseline)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Waymo / robotaxi operator advertises sub-$1/mile pricing tierpre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Sensor / hardware costs fall 80% or more from 2025 baselinepre #1 · pending · 2028-10-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Retail robotaxi rides priced 40%+ cheaper than Uber/Lyft baselinecascade #2 · pending · 2030-03-01 — Robotaxi cost-per-mile falls to $0.30-$0.50 range (10x reduction vs 2026)pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Major regulator (FRA, EASA, or equivalent) issues hyperloop cargo-only safety frameworkpre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First commercial hyperloop cargo route enters revenue servicepre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Passenger hyperloop testing milestone: full-scale human passengers in vacuum tubepre #2 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-31 — Cumulative hyperloop passenger-revenue trips through 2027 remain below 10,000cascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — If passenger-revenue trips exceed cargo-revenue tonnage by window close, claim failspre #3 · pending · 2027-02-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-29 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Tesla Robotaxi fleet exceeds 1,000 cumulative vehiclespre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Tesla Cybercab or successor begins production deliveriespre #3 · pending · 2027-09-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Uber explicitly opens platform to Tesla owner-operator robotaxispre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If FSD v15 not released and disengagement rate has not improved by end-2027, Uber partnership unrealisticpre #6 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Waymo signals shift from asset-heavy to asset-light fleet modelpre #5 · pending · 2027-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First AV fleet REIT or asset-backed AV financing vehicle launchedpre #2 · pending · 2028-10-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — Public AV fleet operator achieves 9%+ net yield to fleet investorspre #6 · pending · 2026-10-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Nissan + Uber + Wayve Tokyo robotaxi pilot launchespre #4 · pending · 2027-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Wayve robotaxi service expands beyond London to second UK citypre #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Wayve commercial robotaxi service expands to ≥3 UK citiespre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-31 — Joby completes Dubai vertiport at DXB airport (Q1 2026)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — GCAA or Abu Dhabi DoT issues operating authorization for eVTOL passenger servicecascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — First fare-paying eVTOL passenger flight in UAEcascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Uber-app-bookable eVTOL leg goes live in UAEcascade #4 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — FAA Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) compliance flight testing completepre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Joby receives FAA Type Certificate for S4 eVTOLpre #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Joby commercial passenger service begins in US (NYC or LAX route)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Cascade: Joby manufacturing capacity reaches 4 aircraft/month (2027 target)cascade #2 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Tesla Cybercab first production VIN rolls off linepre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Tesla confirms Cybercab retail price under $30,000cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Waymo publishes per-vehicle build cost figure for Gen 5/6 robotaxicascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Waymo expands fleet beyond 1,500 vehicles or signs >2 city expansion dealcascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Tesla launches Cybercab ride-hailing service in pilot citycascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Joby Dubai vertiport at DXB completes construction and FAA/GCAA inspectionpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — GCAA / UAE regulator issues commercial operating certificate to Jobycascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First paid passenger flight on Joby Dubai networkcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-16 — Average measured travel-time savings vs ground transport publishedcascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Abu Dhabi-specific Joby agreement or first flight (note: Archer is current ADIO partner)cascade #4 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Uber Rivian R2 robotaxi partnership announcementpre #5 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Tesla Robotaxi service operational in 7+ US citiespre #4 · pending · 2027-02-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Majority of new vehicles sold in US with Level 2+ ADAS as standardpre #1 · pending · 2028-08-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Commercial passenger flights begin in Dubaipre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Joby announces multi-vertiport network plan for NY/LApre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Vertiport handles ≥10K passengers / month at single sitepre #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — NHTSA proposes uniform federal insurance framework for AV operatorspre #5 · pending · 2027-10-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Landmark AV liability case reaches state appellate court with binding precedentpre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Personal-use AV insurance bundles launch tied to specific vehicle make/modelpre #2 · pending · 2028-06-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-03 — Industry consolidates around platform-liability model (vs driver-liability) as defaultpre #5 · overdue · 2025-05-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · overdue · 2025-10-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-27 — Waymo reaches 500K weekly paid robotaxi rides across 10 US citiespre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Uber commits >$10B to autonomous vehicle programcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Waymo targets 1M weekly rides milestonecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Uber launches robotaxi services in 15+ cities by year-end 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AV trips remain under 5% of total Uber volume through 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Robotaxi $/mile drops below $2 in flagship metropre #5 · pending · 2027-04-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Subscription mobility product launches (Uber One AV, Waymo Plus)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Goldman / Morgan Stanley / RethinkX update peak-car forecast earlierpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First major US city sees measurable car-ownership decline (>5%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Pony.ai global robotaxi fleet ≥3,000 by end-2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — WeRide delivers ≥2,000 GXR units in 2026, doubling 2025 fleetpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Aggregate 33+ consumer AV launches counted across China + US + EU in 2026pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-07-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift
32 plotted · 3 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to MSFT.

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)
AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.