PANW
Bsupersededcybersecrecommended 2026-05-05 · source risk_analysis_2026_05_05.md §10 / Tier 2 #10Research-mode rules
| Research status | researching |
|---|---|
| Analysis batch | 2026-05-05-risk-analysis |
| Analysis file | codex/risk_analysis_2026_05_05.md→ risk_analysis_2026_05_05.md §10 / Tier 2 #10 |
| Kelly size % | 1.50% of book cap |
| Stop-loss | -50% premium → exit fully |
| Time stop | 2026-09-01 → exit if <100% gain |
| Profit ladder | +75% premium → sell_third +150% premium → sell_third |
Instrument & sizing
| Instrument type | leaps_call |
|---|---|
| Strike | $230 |
| Expiration | 2027-01-15 |
| Polygon symbol | O:PANW270115C00230000 |
| Recommended quantity | 0.557 |
| Recommended dollar amount | $750 |
| Recommended entry price | $13.47 |
| Spot at recommendation | $182.00 |
| OTM% | 26.4% |
| IV at recommendation | 0.41 |
| Delta at recommendation | 0.35 |
Thesis summary
Cybersec with AI-attach. Cortex XDR Co-Pilot $400M ARR Q4. Cleanest cybersec entry — IV=0.41 vs CRWD/NET premium.
Linked predictions (0)
No predictions linked.
Upcoming catalysts (1 of 1)
| Date | Type | Description | Expected impact | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-01-15 | expiration | PANW option expiration | volatility_only | upcoming |
Update history (1)
Most recent first.
| Updated at | Type | Source | Drift / shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 22:11Z | auto_review | cron | spot +1.1% |
Actions
Recommendation is superseded; further actions handled via the position detail page.
Status: superseded