AAPL
Asupersedededge_airecommended 2026-05-05 · source risk_analysis_2026_05_05.md §9 / Tier 2 #9Research-mode rules
| Research status | researching |
|---|---|
| Analysis batch | 2026-05-05-risk-analysis |
| Analysis file | codex/risk_analysis_2026_05_05.md→ risk_analysis_2026_05_05.md §9 / Tier 2 #9 |
| Kelly size % | 2.00% of book cap |
| Stop-loss | -50% premium → exit fully |
| Time stop | 2026-09-01 → exit if <100% gain |
| Profit ladder | +75% premium → sell_third +150% premium → sell_third |
Instrument & sizing
| Instrument type | leaps_call |
|---|---|
| Strike | $320 |
| Expiration | 2027-01-15 |
| Polygon symbol | O:AAPL270115C00320000 |
| Recommended quantity | 0.943 |
| Recommended dollar amount | $1,000 |
| Recommended entry price | $10.60 |
| Spot at recommendation | $279.00 |
| OTM% | 14.7% |
| IV at recommendation | 0.25 |
| Delta at recommendation | 0.31 |
Thesis summary
Edge-AI underpriced. Apple Intelligence + on-device LLM hardware refresh Sept 2026. Market thinks AAPL is a defensive utility (IV=0.25); LEAPS at 3.8% cost = cheapest legitimate AI-cycle call.
Linked predictions (0)
No predictions linked.
Upcoming catalysts (1 of 1)
| Date | Type | Description | Expected impact | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-01-15 | expiration | AAPL option expiration | volatility_only | upcoming |
Update history (1)
Most recent first.
| Updated at | Type | Source | Drift / shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 22:11Z | auto_review | cron | spot +1.9% |
Actions
Recommendation is superseded; further actions handled via the position detail page.
Status: superseded