NVDA
Csupersededcore_longrecommended 2026-05-04 · source §4 #1, §10Research-mode rules
| Research status | considering |
|---|---|
| Analysis batch | 2026-05-04-launch |
Instrument & sizing
| Instrument type | leaps_call |
|---|---|
| Strike | $295 |
| Expiration | 2027-01-15 |
| Polygon symbol | O:NVDA270115C00295000 |
| Recommended quantity | 0.813 |
| Recommended dollar amount | $500 |
| Recommended entry price | $6.15 |
| Spot at recommendation | $196.18 |
| OTM% | 50.4% |
| IV at recommendation | 0.42 |
| Delta at recommendation | 0.18 |
Thesis summary
NVDA tail lottery — same conviction stack as the $245C anchor, deeper OTM. 50% OTM at 3.1% cost. Pure asymmetric play if NVDA runs to ATH and beyond.
Linked predictions (1)
| Prediction | Role | P (current) | P (prior) | Window | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. SEM_026 · Semis/Products | primary_thesis | 0.714 | 0.850 | 2027-12-31 | in_progress |
Upcoming catalysts (1 of 1)
| Date | Type | Description | Expected impact | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-01-15 | expiration | NVDA option expiration | volatility_only | upcoming |
Update history (1)
Most recent first.
| Updated at | Type | Source | Drift / shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 22:11Z | thesis_weakened | cron | spot +0.2%thesis Δ-9.9pp |
Actions
Recommendation is superseded; further actions handled via the position detail page.
Status: superseded