Audit Log
Immutable change log. Every probability update, intake apply, validation adjudication, and bulk operation writes a row here with structured before/after JSON. Use these records to reconstruct any historical state. ← Ops
Total entries
732
Filtered
732
page 8 / 8
Distinct actions
33
Distinct kinds
16
Filters
Action
Allauto_corroborate.rundoc_node_link.bulk_confirmdoc_node_link.confirmedges.isolated_high_conv_linkedges.phase2a_strength_gradingedges.scenario_correlate_backfilledges.weight_tune_v1intake.appliedkappa_decay_runlbp.completednode.bulk_resolution_fixnode.bulk_updatenode.metadata_milestone_missnode.milestone_missnodes.metadata.display_datenodes.metadata.milestonesnodes.metadata.milestones.phase2nodes.metadata.resolved_atprediction_conflicts.runprediction.recalibration_candidate.stagepredictions.december_dispersalpredictions.scenario_assignmentpredictions.tier3_reviewpredictors.brier_recomputerecommendations.bulk_importrecommendations.refresh.runreference_class_base_rate_refreshreference_class.overrideresearch_event_pack.applyresolution_history.backfillscenario.bulk_createsource_reliability.seedtrajectories.create_correlate_edges
Target kind
Actor (top 50)
Allapply_llm_milestonesapply_low_confidence_decisionsassign_predictions_to_scenariosbackfill_resolution_historybackfill_resolved_atbuild_scenario_pathscodexcompute_brier_scorescompute_display_datesderive_milestonesdisperse_december_bunchingfix_partial_classificationintake:515b84c4-6b29-4d57-8dd6-d41dac…intake:568095f6-eb44-4f96-92d3-13455b…intake:7afeeb9a-f217-4dd2-b910-24ff14…intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87…intake:c130222f-ab93-4d94-b596-5f4dc7…lbp_run:0c8a4ea3431elbp_run:1a683ac9e205lbp_run:1c6a06976c86lbp_run:592311ef6bcalbp_run:806b02f82f58lbp_run:807dd6f649b1lbp_run:ba893ab6499flbp_run:cd8605f31f33lbp_run:e5c18d29fb42lbp_run:e607fa961f0blbp_run:ffd25072aee9link_trajectories_to_dimensionsmanual_overridemetadata_milestone_sweepmilestone_miss_sweepphase_2A.2_graderphase_2A.3_isolated_linkerphase_2A_backfillphase2_part3_smoke_testphase3_p4_smoke_testphase3_p6_smoke_testseed_source_reliabilitystage_recalibration_candidatessystem:auto_corroboratesystem:decay_predictor_kappasystem:detect_prediction_conflictssystem:import_recommendationssystem:refresh_recommendationssystem:refresh_reference_class_base_r…tune_edge_weights
| When | Actor | Action | Target | Before → After |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 01:49:10 | phase_2A.3_isolated_linker | edges.isolated_high_conv_link | edges:phase_2A.3_28f02cc2 | view{
"isolated_predictions": 53
}{
"grade_counts": {
"WEAK": 1,
"GATING": 10,
"STRONG": 16
},
"top_scenarios": {
"S_MARS_2028": 1,
"S_AGI_MID_2029": 6,
"S_AGI_FAST_2027": 9,
"S_ASI_FAST_2031": 1,
"S_GRID_50GW_2029": 1,
"S_RECESSION_2026": 2,
"S_COMPUTE_1GW_2027": 1,
"S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028": 3,
"S_COMPUTE_100GW_2030": 2,
"S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028": 1
},
"edges_proposed": 27,
"matched_predictions": 24,
"unmatched_predictions": 29
} |
| 2026-05-01 01:43:16 | phase_2A.2_grader | edges.phase2a_strength_grading | edges:phase_2A.2_1d981dd8 | view{
"n_edges": 310,
"all_at_weight_0.3": true
}{
"n_edges": 310,
"grade_counts": {
"DROP": 83,
"WEAK": 97,
"GATING": 75,
"STRONG": 49,
"NEGATIVE": 6
},
"weight_distribution": {
"DROP": 0.05,
"WEAK": 0.3,
"GATING": 0.7,
"STRONG": 0.5,
"NEGATIVE": 0.4
}
} |
| 2026-05-01 01:42:52 | phase_2A_backfill | edges.scenario_correlate_backfill | edges:phase_2A_32dddb44 | view{}{
"threshold": 0.58,
"max_per_pred": 2,
"rows_inserted": 10,
"max_per_scenario": 15,
"candidates_proposed": 310
} |
| 2026-05-01 01:31:04 | phase_2A.2_grader | edges.phase2a_strength_grading | edges:phase_2A.2_a00b6c14 | view{
"n_edges": 453,
"all_at_weight_0.3": true
}{
"n_edges": 453,
"grade_counts": {
"DROP": 82,
"WEAK": 43,
"GATING": 173,
"STRONG": 139,
"NEGATIVE": 16
},
"weight_distribution": {
"DROP": 0.05,
"WEAK": 0.3,
"GATING": 0.7,
"STRONG": 0.5,
"NEGATIVE": 0.4
}
} |
| 2026-04-30 23:56:31 | phase_2A_backfill | edges.scenario_correlate_backfill | edges:phase_2A_740c3d3c | view{}{
"threshold": 0.62,
"max_per_pred": 2,
"rows_inserted": 53,
"max_per_scenario": 30,
"candidates_proposed": 453
} |
| 2026-04-30 23:00:01 | compute_brier_scores | predictors.brier_recompute | predictors:continual_20260430 | view{
"max_delta": 0.05,
"smoothing": true
}{
"kappa_shifts": [
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"new_kappa": 0.6875,
"old_kappa": 0.6429,
"raw_delta": 0.0446
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"new_kappa": 0.95,
"old_kappa": 1,
"raw_delta": -0.5
}
],
"n_resolved_total": 108,
"n_predictors_updated": 104
} |
| 2026-04-30 19:54:22 | manual_override | reference_class.override | node:AI_037 | view{
"current_prob": 0.25,
"reference_class_id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
}{
"reason": "mismatched class — EU AI Act compliance is implementation, not freeze",
"current_prob": 0.87,
"reference_class_id": null
} |
| 2026-04-30 19:21:21 | lbp_run:ffd25072aee9 | lbp.completed | lbp_run:ffd25072aee9 | view{
"edge_count": 11361,
"node_count": 1456
}{
"residual": 0.006734,
"converged": true,
"top_moves": [
{
"delta": -0.19376,
"node_id": "246_016"
},
{
"delta": -0.18624,
"node_id": "246_017"
},
{
"delta": -0.18154,
"node_id": "COD_ROB_002"
},
{
"delta": -0.16062,
"node_id": "COD_AI_003"
},
{
"delta": -0.15856,
"node_id": "246_012"
},
{
"delta": -0.15798,
"node_id": "COD_ROB_001"
},
{
"delta": -0.14074,
"node_id": "246_014"
},
{
"delta": 0.13983,
"node_id": "CYB_020"
},
{
"delta": -0.1344,
"node_id": "COD_ROB_003"
},
{
"delta": -0.13043,
"node_id": "COD_SPC_005"
}
],
"iterations": 6,
"applied_beliefs": false,
"n_significant_moves": 1132
} |
| 2026-04-30 19:17:55 | intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87b23937 | intake.applied | intake_session:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87b23937 | view(null) {
"bayesian_v2": true,
"event_updates": 33,
"kappa_summary": {
"n": 33,
"max": 0.8611,
"min": 0.5,
"mean": 0.7291424242424246,
"distinct_predictors": 15
},
"blends_applied": 12,
"indicator_updates": 0,
"new_events_skipped": 0,
"skipped_updates_count": 0,
"anomaly_flags_captured": 1,
"blends_skipped_no_class": 21,
"regime_signals_captured": 0,
"ticker_attribution_captured": 0
} |
| 2026-04-30 19:17:52 | lbp_run:1c6a06976c86 | lbp.completed | lbp_run:1c6a06976c86 | view{
"edge_count": 11109,
"node_count": 1456
}{
"residual": 0.005507,
"converged": true,
"top_moves": [
{
"delta": -0.15786,
"node_id": "COD_AI_003"
},
{
"delta": 0.13758,
"node_id": "CYB_020"
},
{
"delta": 0.12456,
"node_id": "229_028"
},
{
"delta": -0.12261,
"node_id": "COD_SPC_007"
},
{
"delta": -0.11929,
"node_id": "INF_016"
},
{
"delta": 0.11135,
"node_id": "235_047"
},
{
"delta": 0.11088,
"node_id": "246_055"
},
{
"delta": 0.10351,
"node_id": "236_029"
},
{
"delta": 0.10179,
"node_id": "248_019"
},
{
"delta": 0.10162,
"node_id": "230_010"
}
],
"iterations": 5,
"applied_beliefs": false,
"n_significant_moves": 1046
} |
| 2026-04-30 19:15:23 | codex | research_event_pack.apply | research_event_pack:codex_research_event_pack_2026_04_30 | view{}{
"edges": 22,
"sources": 27,
"node_tickers": 69,
"doc_node_links": 139,
"new_predictions": 20,
"skipped_tickers": [
"EPAM",
"LLY",
"NVS"
],
"expected_milestones": 31
} |
| 2026-04-30 16:39:51 | lbp_run:0c8a4ea3431e | lbp.completed | lbp_run:0c8a4ea3431e | view{
"edge_count": 11098,
"node_count": 1436
}{
"residual": 0.00825,
"converged": true,
"top_moves": [
{
"delta": 0.24738,
"node_id": "229_028"
},
{
"delta": 0.21064,
"node_id": "CYB_020"
},
{
"delta": 0.18214,
"node_id": "238_010"
},
{
"delta": 0.17425,
"node_id": "INF_037"
},
{
"delta": 0.17167,
"node_id": "ROB_013"
},
{
"delta": -0.17138,
"node_id": "INF_016"
},
{
"delta": 0.16017,
"node_id": "230_016"
},
{
"delta": 0.15946,
"node_id": "FUT_023"
},
{
"delta": 0.15822,
"node_id": "235_047"
},
{
"delta": -0.15621,
"node_id": "CYB_012"
}
],
"iterations": 5,
"applied_beliefs": true,
"n_significant_moves": 1223
} |
| 2026-04-30 16:38:29 | tune_edge_weights | edges.weight_tune_v1 | edges:phase5_b2_20260430 | view{
"unknown": 0,
"unchanged": 137
}{
"total_updated": 11202,
"edges_per_pair": {
"scenario::prereq": 241,
"prediction::prereq": 6928,
"thesis_killer::killer": 4033
},
"weights_by_pair": {
"meta::killer": 0.5,
"meta::prereq": 0.5,
"meta::correlate": 0.2,
"scenario::killer": 1,
"scenario::prereq": 1,
"prediction::killer": 0.5,
"prediction::prereq": 0.5,
"scenario::correlate": 0.3,
"prediction::correlate": 0.2,
"thesis_killer::killer": 1,
"thesis_killer::prereq": 1
}
} |
| 2026-04-30 16:31:02 | link_trajectories_to_dimensions | trajectories.create_correlate_edges | predictions:phase5_b1_20260430 | view{}{
"by_dimension": {
"compute_scale": 1,
"humanoid_deployment": 2,
"robotaxi_deployment": 2,
"energy_grid_expansion": 4,
"agi_general_capability": 28
},
"trajectories_marked": 37,
"correlate_edges_created": 137
} |
| 2026-04-30 16:28:34 | disperse_december_bunching | predictions.december_dispersal | predictions:phase5_dispersal_20260430 | view{
"dec_31_count_before": 825
}{
"redistributed": 549,
"skipped_keep_dec": 232,
"skipped_protected": 43,
"skipped_window_protect": 1
} |
| 2026-04-30 16:13:32 | apply_low_confidence_decisions | predictions.tier3_review | predictions:phase5_tier3_20260430 | view{}{
"counts": {
"skip": 24,
"scenario": 3,
"direct_date": 46
},
"applied": 73
} |
| 2026-04-30 16:04:16 | assign_predictions_to_scenarios | predictions.scenario_assignment | predictions:phase5_assignment_20260430 | view{
"unresolved_no_end_count": 311
}{
"stats": {
"_total_LOW": 73,
"_total_HIGH": 22,
"_total_MEDIUM": 216,
"compute_scale::LOW": 1,
"macro_recession::LOW": 7,
"compute_scale::MEDIUM": 1,
"ipo_trillion_plus::LOW": 9,
"ipo_trillion_plus::HIGH": 1,
"macro_recession::MEDIUM": 16,
"ai_regulatory_pause::LOW": 5,
"humanoid_deployment::LOW": 26,
"robotaxi_deployment::LOW": 4,
"humanoid_deployment::HIGH": 14,
"ipo_trillion_plus::MEDIUM": 16,
"robotaxi_deployment::HIGH": 2,
"energy_grid_expansion::LOW": 1,
"mars_uncrewed_landing::LOW": 2,
"agi_general_capability::LOW": 7,
"humanoid_deployment::MEDIUM": 20,
"mars_uncrewed_landing::HIGH": 1,
"robotaxi_deployment::MEDIUM": 42,
"agi_general_capability::HIGH": 2,
"energy_grid_expansion::MEDIUM": 8,
"mars_uncrewed_landing::MEDIUM": 10,
"agi_general_capability::MEDIUM": 76,
"asi_recursive_self_improvement::LOW": 11,
"asi_recursive_self_improvement::HIGH": 2,
"asi_recursive_self_improvement::MEDIUM": 27
},
"applied": 311
} |
| 2026-04-30 15:59:40 | build_scenario_paths | scenario.bulk_create | scenarios:phase5_scenarios_20260430 | view{}{
"dimensions": [
"agi_general_capability",
"asi_recursive_self_improvement",
"humanoid_deployment",
"mars_uncrewed_landing",
"compute_scale",
"macro_recession",
"ipo_trillion_plus",
"robotaxi_deployment",
"ai_regulatory_pause",
"energy_grid_expansion"
],
"n_scenarios": 37
} |
| 2026-04-30 14:47:04 | fix_partial_classification | node.bulk_resolution_fix | nodes:reclassification_20260430 | view{}{} |
| 2026-04-30 02:18:57 | lbp_run:592311ef6bca | lbp.completed | lbp_run:592311ef6bca | view{
"edge_count": 10961,
"node_count": 1399
}{
"residual": 0.008252,
"converged": true,
"top_moves": [
{
"delta": 0.24749,
"node_id": "229_028"
},
{
"delta": 0.21066,
"node_id": "CYB_020"
},
{
"delta": 0.18391,
"node_id": "238_010"
},
{
"delta": 0.17434,
"node_id": "INF_037"
},
{
"delta": 0.17173,
"node_id": "ROB_013"
},
{
"delta": 0.16481,
"node_id": "235_047"
},
{
"delta": 0.15951,
"node_id": "FUT_023"
},
{
"delta": 0.15847,
"node_id": "230_016"
},
{
"delta": -0.15451,
"node_id": "SPC_010"
},
{
"delta": 0.15349,
"node_id": "246_055"
}
],
"iterations": 5,
"applied_beliefs": true,
"n_significant_moves": 1234
} |
| 2026-04-30 02:18:22 | lbp_run:cd8605f31f33 | lbp.completed | lbp_run:cd8605f31f33 | view{
"edge_count": 10961,
"node_count": 1399
}{
"residual": 0.008252,
"converged": true,
"top_moves": [
{
"delta": 0.24749,
"node_id": "229_028"
},
{
"delta": 0.21066,
"node_id": "CYB_020"
},
{
"delta": 0.18391,
"node_id": "238_010"
},
{
"delta": 0.17434,
"node_id": "INF_037"
},
{
"delta": 0.17173,
"node_id": "ROB_013"
},
{
"delta": 0.16481,
"node_id": "235_047"
},
{
"delta": 0.15951,
"node_id": "FUT_023"
},
{
"delta": 0.15847,
"node_id": "230_016"
},
{
"delta": -0.15451,
"node_id": "SPC_010"
},
{
"delta": 0.15349,
"node_id": "246_055"
}
],
"iterations": 5,
"applied_beliefs": false,
"n_significant_moves": 1234
} |
| 2026-04-30 01:37:52 | intake:568095f6-eb44-4f96-92d3-13455b79e337 | intake.applied | intake_session:568095f6-eb44-4f96-92d3-13455b79e337 | view(null) {
"bayesian_v1": true,
"event_updates": 1,
"kappa_summary": {
"n": 1,
"max": 0.8611,
"min": 0.8611,
"mean": 0.8611,
"distinct_predictors": 1
},
"indicator_updates": 0,
"new_events_skipped": 0,
"skipped_updates_count": 0,
"anomaly_flags_captured": 0,
"regime_signals_captured": 0,
"ticker_attribution_captured": 0
} |
| 2026-04-30 00:33:27 | phase3_p6_smoke_test | doc_node_link.bulk_confirm | doc_node_link:387:246_012 | view{
"polarity": "mentions",
"reviewed": false,
"relevance": 0.788
}{
"polarity": "mentions",
"reviewed": true
} |
| 2026-04-30 00:33:27 | phase3_p6_smoke_test | doc_node_link.bulk_confirm | doc_node_link:387:242_057 | view{
"polarity": "mentions",
"reviewed": false,
"relevance": 0.751
}{
"polarity": "mentions",
"reviewed": true
} |
| 2026-04-30 00:33:27 | phase3_p6_smoke_test | doc_node_link.bulk_confirm | doc_node_link:439:CMQ_060 | view{
"polarity": "mentions",
"reviewed": false,
"relevance": 0.764
}{
"polarity": "mentions",
"reviewed": true
} |
| 2026-04-30 00:33:27 | phase3_p6_smoke_test | doc_node_link.bulk_confirm | doc_node_link:452:234_015 | view{
"polarity": "mentions",
"reviewed": false,
"relevance": 0.795
}{
"polarity": "mentions",
"reviewed": true
} |
| 2026-04-30 00:33:27 | phase3_p6_smoke_test | doc_node_link.bulk_confirm | doc_node_link:452:246_006 | view{
"polarity": "mentions",
"reviewed": false,
"relevance": 0.768
}{
"polarity": "mentions",
"reviewed": true
} |
| 2026-04-30 00:33:27 | phase3_p6_smoke_test | doc_node_link.bulk_confirm | doc_node_link:452:246_005 | view{
"polarity": "mentions",
"reviewed": false,
"relevance": 0.752
}{
"polarity": "mentions",
"reviewed": true
} |
| 2026-04-30 00:33:27 | phase3_p6_smoke_test | doc_node_link.bulk_confirm | doc_node_link:550:235_016 | view{
"polarity": "mentions",
"reviewed": false,
"relevance": 0.751
}{
"polarity": "mentions",
"reviewed": true
} |
| 2026-04-29 23:26:10 | phase3_p4_smoke_test | doc_node_link.confirm | doc_node_link:216:240_046 | view{
"polarity": "mentions",
"reviewed": false,
"relevance": 0.55
}{
"polarity": "mentions",
"reviewed": true
} |
| 2026-04-29 22:47:08 | intake:c130222f-ab93-4d94-b596-5f4dc7adcd0b | intake.applied | intake_session:c130222f-ab93-4d94-b596-5f4dc7adcd0b | view(null) {
"event_updates": 1,
"indicator_updates": 0,
"new_events_skipped": 0,
"skipped_updates_count": 0,
"anomaly_flags_captured": 0,
"regime_signals_captured": 0,
"ticker_attribution_captured": 0
} |
| 2026-04-29 22:37:42 | phase2_part3_smoke_test | node.bulk_update | node:229_001 | view{
"conviction": 5,
"resolutionStatus": "in_progress"
}{
"conviction": 5,
"resolutionStatus": "in_progress"
} |