Timeline Fan

82 of 82 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

Filter by ticker

Click a symbol to scope to claims affecting that company
DOCN 82GOOGL 69UBER 68ADUS 65COUR 65GDDY 65NFLX 65RDDT 65SPOT 65SRFM 65UDMY 65VERV 65GTLB 62AMZN 61

Filters

Fork by
Off (single timeline)$1T+ IPOAGIAI pauseASIMars uncrewedRecessionCompute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)
Tradeable only
Yes (≥1 ticker, default)No (all predictions)
Window
next 12 monext 24 monext 5 yr (default)5y + tail
Domain
AllAIAI/AgentsAI/AGIAI/ArchitectureAI/ChinaAI/CognitionAI/ComputeAI/CorporateAI/FinanceAI/HardwareAI/InfrastructureAI/ManufacturingAI/MarketsAI/MathematicsAI/PhysicsAI/SoftwareAI/StartupsAI/StrategyAuto/TransportBiotech/LongevityCapital MarketsConsumerCryptoDefenseEconomyEconomy/OrgEducationEnergyEnergy/ComputeFinance/CryptoGeopoliticsInvestingLabor/JobsMacro/EconomyManufacturingMarkets/StocksMedia/AdsOtherPolicy/SemisQuantumQuantum/AIReal EstateRoboticsSemisSemis/ASICsSemis/GeopoliticsSemis/HardwareSemis/MarketsSemis/MemorySemis/PackagingSemis/Productsshort_horizon_breakoutSpaceSpace/ComputeTechnology
Resolved
Hide (default — live forecasts only)IncludeResolved only
Top predictors
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)
0255075100history230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis✓238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now✓240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months✓AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake✓238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)✓CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20✓AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o✓240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027✓FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna✓AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en✓242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission✓244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years✓241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation✓229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne✓IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct✓SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S✓SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil✓SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on✓232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti✓241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom✓AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026✓242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license✓233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra✓CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val✓246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers).✓238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if)✓247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston✓AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using✓IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do✓AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la✓AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c✓CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba✓247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial✓235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).✓245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE✓CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o✓246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.✓FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-✓ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin✓ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU✓INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva✓INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula✓SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f✓SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.✓INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n✓229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.✓248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.✓248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.✓ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence-✓CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to✓235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.✓SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc✓SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f✓237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca✓238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days✓232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.✓241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long✓245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed✓SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme✓248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.✓SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200✓229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.✓CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re✓CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi✓CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr✓SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate✓INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup✓INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor✓SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.✓SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying✓SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu✓SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual✓231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.✗231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.✗235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.✗244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years◐239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world◐INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol◐232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani◐236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours◐SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad◐AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey◐238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi◐231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.◐CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.◐AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree◐246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).◐247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently◐245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus◐INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn◐INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat◐246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.◐INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob◐SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se◐ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar◐INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await◐SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr◐INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive◐SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na◐SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u◐SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast◐SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10◐SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci◐CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go◐INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 —◐INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight◐INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive◐SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a◐Jan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2027FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2028FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2029FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2030FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2031FebMarAprMayJuntodaypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour cadence (24x throughput vs January)pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Cumulative humanoid robot deployments cross 100,000 units globallypre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Humanoid unit price falls below $30K (SUV-equivalent threshold)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Humanoid robot sector annual revenue crosses $10B (still <0.05% of $50T claim)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-08-31 — Humanoid TAM addressable wages reach $1T annual run-rate (revenue capture stage)pre #6 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Fortune-1000 firm publicly automates >= 50% of executive committee functions with AIpre #5 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First publicly disclosed Fortune-500 CEO (or interim CEO) replaced by AI agent systempre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — BLS reports manual-labor occupations growing faster than knowledge-worker occupations in 2027-2028pre #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Unskilled-labor humanoid-robot deployment in retail/hospitality remains <5% of US workforcepre #2 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Median CEO compensation in S&P 500 declines >= 20% from 2024 baselinepre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — First humanoid robot achieves >= 90% of human dexterity in unstructured manual tasks (independent benchmark)cascade #1 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · pending · 2027-12-16 — CBO or major IB upgrades 2030 GDP path by >=20% citing AI/automationpre #5 · pending · 2028-02-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Productivity growth (BLS nonfarm) breaks above 4.0% YoYpre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — G20 official statement names AI/robotics as primary driver of GDP outperformancepre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Tesla bot or Optimus generates >$10B in segment revenue annualizedpre #1 · pending · 2029-02-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #2 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #5 · hit · 2025-06-30 — Zendesk fully-resolved-ticket pricing model in marketpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-14 — HubSpot Breeze AI shifts to outcome-based pricingpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 40% of enterprise applications feature AI agentspre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Hybrid usage+outcome pricing reaches 60% of SaaS vendorspre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Major professional services firm shifts billable-hour model to outcome pricingpre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Prompt Engineer becomes formally tracked job category (135.8% YoY growth)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Context Engineer / RAG Engineer roles emerge as distinct from prompt engineerpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Chief AI Officer (CAIO/CAIRO) becomes standardized C-suite role at S&P 500 companiespre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Data-rights brokerage emerges as formal commercial categorypre #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — BLS adds new job classifications for AI-specific roles in O*NET databasepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Ireland announces BIA pilot extension and expansion to 2,000-2,200 artists for 2026-2029pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-16 — Ireland publishes final third-year evaluation showing aggregate benefit-cost ratiopre #3 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Second non-Irish jurisdiction adopts arts-specific UBI pilot citing Irelandpre #2 · pending · 2028-09-30 — Ireland BIA scheme made permanent or made universal within Irelandpre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Comparable peacetime work-creation scheme expanded beyond arts in any G20 countrypre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US AI-attributed layoffs cross 500K cumulativepre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First clear sectoral AI-driven employment decline (legal, software, customer service)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-31 — BLS unemployment rate stays below 6% during initial AI-displacement wavepre #2 · pending · 2028-08-30 — No single month sees >500K AI-attributed layoffs (no shock event)pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cumulative AI-attributed displacement reaches 5M jobs without unemployment spike >7%pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major US city sees youth-led AI/jobs protest >5,000 attendeespre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Federal policy response: youth-targeted UBI pilot or jobs guarantee program launchedpre #6 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Annual US GDP growth crosses 5% for first time since pandemic (vs ~2-3% baseline)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Global GDP growth crosses 5% (well above 3% trend)pre #3 · pending · 2028-11-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Productivity (TFP) growth in US rises to >= 3% annually (vs ~1% historical)pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Single year shows >= 10% real GDP growth in any G20 economy primarily attributed to AIcascade #1 · pending · 2030-12-31 — Triple-digit (>= 100%) annual GDP growth at country or global level (Horowitz claim)cascade #2 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #3 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Class of 2026 worst job market for new grads since pandemic onset (NACE survey)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Junior tech postings drop ≥50% from 2024 baselinepre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Salesforce hiring 1,000 new graduates + Amazon 11,000 SWE interns 2026 — entrepreneurial/builder tier preservedpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Youth unemployment exceeds 10% (US 16-24) — ServiceNow CEO 30% warning materializes partwaypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-05-01 — MoonAgents Card and a16z stablecoin-agent thesis publicly launchpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — BLS reports new business formation continues elevated through AI-tooling adoption windowpre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Stablecoin annual transaction volume exceeds $50 trillionpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BLS unemployment rate stays below 5.5% through entire window despite AI displacement narrativepre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First publicly documented case of single-founder >$10M ARR business operated >50% by AI agentspre #5 · hit · 2026-01-15 — a16z 2026 Big Ideas explicitly identifies AI agents + on-chain finance as central themepre #4 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Stablecoin transaction volume crosses $50T annualized run-ratepre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — x402 / KYA / agent-payment standard sees major-protocol adoptionpre #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — AI agent on-chain transaction volume crosses $1B/monthpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Public AI-economy thesis adopted by mainstream Wall Street equity researchpre #5 · hit · 2026-01-31 — AI inference cost falls >=900x per million tokens since 2023pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-28 — Top economist publicly cites Jevons Paradox to explain AI labor expansionpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — AI capex spend approaches $650-725B in 2026pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AI inference industry spend exceeds $50B in 2026 (Jevons rebound)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — BEA productivity statistics show >=2% annualized labor productivity growth sustained 6+ quarterspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — BLS unemployment rate spikes >=1% YoY in white-collar BLS occupational categoriespre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Personal bankruptcy filings rise >=25% YoY (Yang's predicted second-order effect)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Cascade: First major US political party adopts UBI-like policy plank in 2028 cyclepre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: Aggregate white-collar headcount in S&P 500 declines >=10% from 2025 peakcascade #1 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OASI trust fund exhaustion projection holds at FY2032pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI displacement layoffs cross 100,000 cumulative since 2024cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Brookings/IMF/McKinsey publish AI payroll-tax-base shrinkage estimatecascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Federal robot/AI tax legislation introduced in Congresscascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-30 — OASI trust fund exhaustion accelerated to <FY2030 in Trustees Reportpre #6 · pending · 2026-06-22 — Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centeredpre #5 · pending · 2026-08-30 — We are currently in AI hard takeoffpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First hyperscaler 'energy island' commercial site comes online (self-sufficient bypass of public grid)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Data-center capacity oversupply emerges (rents flatten/decline)pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-15 — First publicly-disclosed 'free electricity to nearby community' deal from a data center campuspre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — US grid power tied to data-center captive generation crosses 100 GWcascade #1 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — 60% of hiring managers planning AI-driven layoffs in 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — 30% of companies planning AI-driven layoffs (McKinsey state-of-AI)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: AI-attributed layoffs cross 200K in 2026 single yearcascade #3 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-01 — 30-month sustained contraction in white-collar payrolls (continuation of 29-mo trend)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic Economic Index quarterly update shows entry-level white-collar exposure wideningpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BLS unemployment rate for college grads age 22-25 crosses 6%pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Big-four consultancy or top law firm announces >25% reduction in entry-level hiring classpre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — If thesis right: US headline unemployment crosses 7% during 2028-2030cascade #1 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Q1 2026 US real GDP grows at 2.0% annual ratepre #3 · pending · 2027-01-31 — Q4 2026 BEA release confirms nominal GDP per capita >=$88,000pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Nominal GDP per capita crosses $90,000pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Real GDP per capita growth runs >=1.5% annual through 2028cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Nominal GDP per capita crosses $100,000pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First publicly-announced billionaire-funded regional cash-transfer program in their home metro (>=$50M committed, >=10,0pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Yang/Humanity Forward expands philanthropic UBI footprint past Hudson/Denver pilots into >=5 new citiespre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — At least three additional billionaire-backed local UBI/GBI programs announced in same year as the firstpre #3 · pending · 2028-01-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Federal/state legislator cites billionaire-backed regional UBI as model in introduced legislationpre #1 · pending · 2028-11-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-20 — Meta cuts 10% of workforce (~8,000) starting May 20, 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Big Freeze: 32%+ of companies plan AI-driven headcount reductioncascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Total 2026 mass layoffs cross 1.5M with AI cited in >10%cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: white-collar U-3 unemployment crosses 4.5% by mid-2027pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — BLS occupational employment survey shows ≥3% drop in white-collar OES categoriespre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Unemployment rate rises ≥1.5pp from 4.1% baselinepre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Major commercial real-estate vacancy spike (>25% Class-A office)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — 20-50% of 70M office workers displaced (resolution criterion)cascade #2 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Recent-graduate unemployment rises faster than overall workforce (2x)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Suburban high-end inventory rises >=20% YoY in NYC peninsula/CA Bay suburbspre #1 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Westchester median home price declines >=5% YoY (Yang's thesis fires)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cascade: Mortgage Professional / NAR cite white-collar AI layoffs as primary driver of suburban downturnpre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — US CPI peaks at >=5% YoY before sustained decline below 2%pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Federal UBI/cash-transfer enacted at scale >=$500B/yearpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Money-supply growth (M2) acceleration >=10% YoYpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — AI-driven goods deflation observable in tradable goods CPI subcomponentpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Robotics-driven labor cost decline: humanoid+industrial robot deployment >=500K units cumulative USpre #6 · pending · 2027-02-14 — First major economist publishes AI-driven hyperinflation frameworkpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US M2 / debt monetization signal — fiscal dominance proxypre #4 · pending · 2027-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI-driven structural disinflation — opposite outcome (negation watch)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — US headline CPI exceeds 8% sustained for 12+ monthspre #6 · pending · 2026-08-30 — We are currently in AI hard takeoffpre #5 · pending · 2026-12-03 — 2026 midterm elections produce divided Congress unable to pass major fiscal legislationpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — State-level UBI expansion: 3+ states adopt permanent guaranteed-income programs >$500/mopre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Federal Reserve or CBO publish formal AI-displacement scenario in macro projectionspre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — AI-displacement unemployment crosses 5.5% nationally before 2028 electionpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — At least one major-party 2028 candidate runs explicitly on UBI/cash-transfer platformcascade #1 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #2 · hit · 2026-01-31 — St. Louis Fed AI-contribution-to-GDP nowcast Jan 2026pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-12 — BEA real GDP per capita Q1 2026 printscascade #1 · hit · 2026-01-26 — AI-related capex categories rank top-2 driver of US GDP growth in any quartercascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — US nominal GDP per capita crosses $90,000 in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Productivity growth (nonfarm business output/hour) >2% YoY for 2026 sustainedpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — OpenClaw or peer AI agent platform passes 10M paying users / 100M MAUpre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI-assisted solo-founder / 'one-person unicorn' formation rate hits new highpre #1 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Small-business net-new hiring exceeds FANG layoffs YoYcascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Net job creation > job destruction at AI-displacement-affected industriescascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Mainstream economic narrative shifts to 'AI as net job creator' (cascade)cascade #3 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — ≥1 high-profile $1B+ AI-startup failure in 2026pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — AI-cited job cuts cross 100K cumulative thresholdpre #4 · pending · 2026-10-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-26 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — ≥1 S&P 500 incumbent files Chapter 11 with AI disruption citedpre #1 · pending · 2027-09-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — AI capex reaches 2% of US GDP (~$650B)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First major frontier-lab government coordination event (no firewall in policy)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Universal income / wage-replacement pilot program launched in any G20 nationpre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — BLS unemployment rate exceeds 6% with explicit AI attribution in commentarypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-03-12 — Major frontier-lab CEO publicly states 'capital may be mortal' or equivalentpre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Major US wealth-tax / capital-redistribution proposal advances in Congresspre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Billionaire / equity-holder loss event tied to AI labor pushbackcascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Anti-trust / structural-reform legislation targeting AI-monopolist concentrationcascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Capital share of GDP begins multi-quarter decline for first time since 1970spre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Pincus/Donovan publicly announces wealth-pod structurepre #1 · pending · 2026-06-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — First annual disbursement to 44 recipients (4% cash + 1% expansion pool)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Pod publishes baseline wellbeing/income measurement of 44 recipientscascade #3 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First-year recipient outcomes publicly reportedcascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-14 — Expansion pool funds second podcascade #5 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #6 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-15 — OpenAI / Anthropic / Tesla CEO public statement that money is becoming less relevantpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major government formally proposes UBI / AI dividend pilotcascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — AI white-collar displacement crosses measurable threshold (BLS or McKinsey data)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Public AI-dividend / token tax legislative proposal in US Congresspre #5 · pending · 2026-09-29 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First public claim by major economist or central banker that AI is meaningfully shifting the long-run growth trajectorypre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Macro literature publishes formal critique of 1000x economy thesispre #1 · pending · 2027-07-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — AI-driven productivity growth shows up in advanced-economy TFP statistics (sustained >2% TFP growth for 3 consecutive yecascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Energy-output decoupling milestone: global TWh growth keeps pace with GDP without proportional emissionscascade #3 · pending · 2031-01-01 — Cascade: post-scarcity policy frameworks debated in G7 / G20cascade #4 · pending · 2035-07-02 — Global nominal GDP doubles vs 2024 baseline (2024 nominal world GDP ~$110T → ~$220T)pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Tech sector AI-attributed job losses cross 75K in H1 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Klarna-style customer service AI replacement scales to 5+ Fortune 1000 companiescascade #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Junior developer hiring rate drops >25% YoYcascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — BLS reports AI-attributed unemployment rate uptickcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal/state UBI or AI displacement tax legislation introducedpre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — AI capex contributes 1.1% to GDP growth in H1 2025 baselinepre #5 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Data center construction hits $40B annual rate (June 2025 baseline)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Q1 2026 AI investments drive 75% of GDP increasepre #1 · pending · 2026-06-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — 2026 hyperscaler AI capex reaches $700B (~doubles 2025)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Global data center capex CAGR confirms 21% trajectory toward $1.2T by 2029cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Construction subsegment 'data center' formally separated from 'office' in BEA datacascade #4 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #5 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — Customer service / call center employment down >15% YoYpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Tesla Optimus mass production begins in Q3 2026 (>=1,000 units shipped)pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Humanoid robot autonomously completes high-skilled mechanical task (e.g., automotive engine assembly)pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-30 — First skilled-trade union acknowledges automation displacement risk in collective bargainingpre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cognitive AI agents demonstrate >50% replacement rate for entry-level white-collar before humanoid does same for tradespre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — BLS or OECD employment statistics show high-skilled mechanical occupations resilient vs cognitive jobspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-16 — ≥3 Fortune-100 firms cite AI as primary headcount driver in 10-Kpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major employer publicly issues 'AI-only' job postingpre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — First U.S. labor-rights litigation over AI-only hiring practicespre #6 · hit · 2025-09-10 — Perseverance Jezero biosignature reported as potentially biologicalpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-21 — Curiosity rover detects 20+ organic molecules at Glen Torridonpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Astrobiology paper confirms cosmic-ray-driven habitability for Mars/Europa/Enceladuspre #3 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Mars Sample Return mission launchescascade #2 · pending · 2030-08-16 — Europa Clipper begins science phase at Jupiterpre #6 · pending · 2026-11-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First gigawatt-scale AI-purpose-built datacenter campus operationalpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First nuclear reactor restart explicitly contracted for AI datacenter (Three Mile Island/Microsoft style)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — AI-recommended industrial process redesign deployed at Fortune 500 plant scalepre #1 · pending · 2027-11-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — US electricity production grows >10% YoY explicitly tied to AI demandpre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-31 — Joby completes Dubai vertiport at DXB airport (Q1 2026)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — GCAA or Abu Dhabi DoT issues operating authorization for eVTOL passenger servicecascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — First fare-paying eVTOL passenger flight in UAEcascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Uber-app-bookable eVTOL leg goes live in UAEcascade #4 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — FAA Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) compliance flight testing completepre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Joby receives FAA Type Certificate for S4 eVTOLpre #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Joby commercial passenger service begins in US (NYC or LAX route)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Cascade: Joby manufacturing capacity reaches 4 aircraft/month (2027 target)cascade #2 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Joby Dubai vertiport at DXB completes construction and FAA/GCAA inspectionpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — GCAA / UAE regulator issues commercial operating certificate to Jobycascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First paid passenger flight on Joby Dubai networkcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-16 — Average measured travel-time savings vs ground transport publishedcascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Abu Dhabi-specific Joby agreement or first flight (note: Archer is current ADIO partner)cascade #4 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Commercial passenger flights begin in Dubaipre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Joby announces multi-vertiport network plan for NY/LApre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Vertiport handles ≥10K passengers / month at single sitepre #6 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Computershare 2027 survey: equity-plan participation among employers exceeds 90%pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Federal or state legislation introduced for AI-dividend or worker-equity-share programpre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major union (UAW, SAG-AFTRA, Teamsters) negotiates AI-equity clause in CBApre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Employee Ownership Fairness Act or successor legislation passespre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — ESOP participant count grows >10% above 2026 baseline of 15.1Mpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If no federal legislation moves and ESOP growth flatlines through 2027, claim direction weakenspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — AI-cited layoffs reach 100,000 cumulative through 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-14 — BLS productivity data shows white-collar sector productivity surgecascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — WEF Future of Jobs report quantifies structural displacementcascade #3 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · pending · 2026-08-30 — We are currently in AI hard takeoffpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First US AI-displacement legislative bill formally introduced in Congresspre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First state-level AI displacement payment program enactedpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — BLS or independent labor research confirms >100K AI-displacement layoffs in single quarterpre #2 · pending · 2028-06-16 — US unemployment rate exceeds 6% with non-cyclical characterizationpre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Federal stimulus check or transfer program enacted >=$1,000 per adultcascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-02 — AI-tax or compute-tax framework adopted federally to fund transferscascade #2 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #5 · hit · 2026-02-15 — First major anti-AI protest in London draws hundreds at OpenAI/DeepMind/Meta HQpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Stanford AI Index 2026: Only 38% of Americans positive on AI (record low)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-21 — 142+ activist groups in 24 states organize against AI infrastructurepre #2 · hit · 2026-04-15 — AI data center backlash turns violent — first documented act of sabotagepre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Major G7 country enacts AI reform package (UBI, AI dividend, or compute tax)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Solo entrepreneur with >=$10M ARR built primarily on AI tools (single-person AI conglomerate)pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Stripe Atlas / LLC formation data shows surge in single-member firmspre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Anthropic Economic Index or McKinsey survey: net job creation among AI-adopting firmspre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — BLS net employment change positive over 24-month window 2026-2028pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Forbes/Fortune profile feature on solo AI-billionaires or near-billionairespre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BLS unemployment rate stays below 5.0% through 2028pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — New job categories created: BLS adds >=2 new SOC codes for AI-era rolespre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Goldman Sachs, McKinsey, or Anthropic publish revised displacement timeline through 2028pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Job category extinction: BLS occupational data shows >=3 occupations decline >=20%pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Labor force participation rate stays within +/-1pp of 2025 baselinepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Junior software developer (0-3 yr exp) job postings on Indeed/LinkedIn rise YoY for 3 consecutive monthscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS JOLTS Information sector job openings rebound above 2024 baselinecascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Stack Overflow Developer Survey shows entry-level developer share stabilizing or risingcascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Salesforce hires 1,000 new-grad software/AI engineers as Benioff committedcascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal Reserve or BLS publishes follow-on study reaffirming AI-not-driving-junior-dev declinecascade #6 · pending · 2028-10-31 — Cascade: CS undergrad enrollment growth resumes (>=2% YoY) after 2024-25 dippre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — NVIDIA officially launches Vera CPU rack purpose-built for agentic AIpre #5 · hit · 2026-03-31 — NVIDIA unveils Agent OS / NeMoClaw operating system for agentspre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Vera Rubin platform reaches general availability with cloud partner deploymentpre #1 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — NVIDIA agentic-AI revenue line crosses $10B annualizedpre #6 · hit · 2026-03-16 — Six space-AI partners named at launch (Aetherflux, Axiom, Kepler, Planet, Sophia, Starcloud)pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-01 — First Vera Rubin Space Module ships to a paying orbital customerpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First Rubin-class AI inference workload runs on-orbit (not just imaging payload)pre #2 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — First lunar-surface AI compute deployment announcement (NVIDIA-class hardware)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2025-09-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2026-03-31 — GTC 2026: Rosa CPU (successor to Vera) announced; Feynman 3D-stacked GPU details disclosedpre #4 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Vera Rubin NVL144 launch (2026): 3.6 EFLOPS FP4, 1.2 EFLOPS FP8 inference/trainingpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Rubin Ultra (2027): SXM8 with 4 reticle-limited GPU chiplets, 100 PFLOPS FP4, 1TB HBM4Ecascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Feynman GPU launch (2028): advanced 3D stacking, custom HBM, Rosa CPU pairingpre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-25 — NVIDIA full-year FY2026 data center revenue ~$197Bpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Hyperscaler 2026 AI capex commitments ~$700B confirmedpre #3 · pending · 2026-09-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — NVIDIA crosses $5T market capitalization sustainablypre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Industry/analyst consensus aligns with $3-5T cumulative AI infra TAM through 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — NVIDIA cumulative 2025-2027 data center revenue exceeds $500B (run-rate trajectory toward $3-5T TAM)pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-22 — Three-supplier 16-Hi HBM4 sample delivery to NVIDIApre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — SK Hynix begins HBM4 mass production for NVIDIA Rubinpre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Combined HBM industry quarterly revenue exceeds $20Bpre #1 · pending · 2027-02-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-25 — Arm publishes AGI CPU thesis confirming CPU renaissance for agentic AIpre #4 · hit · 2026-03-18 — Jensen Huang at GTC publicly frames CPU as central to agentic AIpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-20 — Morgan Stanley publishes Rise of AI Agents thesis: GPU bottleneck shifts to CPUpre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — CPU:GPU ratio in agentic workloads exceeds 1:1 cluster-level by 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Server CPU TAM grows ≥15% annually 2026-2030 per Morgan Stanley estimatepre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-15 — SK Hynix achieves 16-layer HBM4 mass productionpre #4 · pending · 2026-09-26 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — HBM4 yield-related supply shortage reported in 2H 2026pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Micron 16-Hi HBM4 mass productionpre #6 · hit · 2025-10-29 — SK Hynix sells out 2026 DRAM/HBM/NAND supply to NVIDIApre #5 · overdue · 2026-03-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-03-31 — SK Hynix HBM4 shipments to NVIDIA Rubin start in March 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — UBS forecasts SK Hynix 70% HBM4 share for NVIDIA Rubinpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Year-end 2026 SK Hynix HBM share remains ≥50%cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Samsung Foundry challenges SK Hynix dominance with HBM4 winspre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-15 — Samsung passes Nvidia HBM4 qualification and signs Vera Rubin supply contractpre #5 · overdue · 2026-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Samsung HBM4 mass production begins shipmentspre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Samsung secures approximately 30% of Nvidia's 2026 HBM4 allocation (vs SK hynix ~70%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Vera Rubin platform begins volume ramp in second half 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Samsung global HBM market share crosses 28% threshold per TrendForce/Counterpointpre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-20 — Morgan Stanley publishes formal Rise of AI Agents report — GPU-to-CPU pivot thesispre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-22 — CPU-side orchestration is empirically measured at 50-90% of agentic workload latencypre #2 · pending · 2026-07-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Hyperscaler greenfield CPU racks deployed exclusively for agentic AIcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Memory and CPU vendors outperform GPU pure-plays in 2026-27 returnscascade #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — DRAM demand from agentic workloads adds 15-45 EB by 2030cascade #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — $32.5-60B incremental CPU TAM materialized by 2030 per Morgan Stanleypre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major hyperscaler announces agentic-rack architecture with disclosed CPU:GPU ratio >=1:2pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Intel/AMD/ARM CPU vendor reports orchestration-CPU revenue tied to agentic workloads as named segmentpre #4 · pending · 2027-11-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Industry-wide cluster-level CPU:GPU ratio shift confirmed at 1:1-1:2 in TrendForce/IDC datapre #2 · pending · 2028-10-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Orchestration-CPU TAM tracking toward Morgan Stanley $82.5B-$110B 2030 projectionpre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Starcloud / Aetherflux launches 100+ kW orbital AI compute nodepre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Starcloud 88K satellite constellation FCC application progressespre #4 · pending · 2027-08-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-04-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-16 — First operational orbital AI-DC reaches 1MW continuous compute powerpre #6 · hit · 2026-01-12 — NVIDIA + Eli Lilly announce $1B AI co-innovation lab on BioNeMo platformpre #5 · hit · 2026-03-16 — Roche launches NVIDIA-powered AI factory for therapeutics developmentpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — ≥200 AI-discovered drug programs in clinical developmentpre #3 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-16 — First BioNeMo / Evo 2-designed therapeutic enters Phase 1 human trialpre #1 · pending · 2028-02-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — ≥1 BioNeMo-designed drug receives FDA breakthrough/fast-track designationpre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — xAI Colossus crosses 555K GPUspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-08 — Microsoft contracts 30K Rubin GPUs at Norway data centerpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US government action: data-center grid build-out Defense Production Act invocationpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Hundreds-of-millions GPUs deployed across leading clusters by end-2027cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — TSMC Arizona phase 2 begins 3nm mass productionpre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Data center occupancy peaks ~95% late 2026, moderates starting 2027pre #5 · pending · 2028-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Blackwell/Rubin GPU spot prices fall >30% from 2026 peak ASPpre #3 · pending · 2029-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-16 — First major US power-PPA gets renegotiated downward by hyperscalerpre #1 · pending · 2030-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · overdue · 2025-04-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2025-07-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-10-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · hit · 2025-11-12 — WSJ confirms OpenAI 2025 financial loss disclosurecascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — OpenAI ARR crosses $25B thresholdcascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — OpenAI 2026 financial disclosure shows ~$14B+ lossescascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI Stargate $500B partnership delivers first 10GW phasecascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-23 — Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulencecascade #6 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Wilson confirms AI productivity diffusion thesis in 2026 US Outlook podcastpre #5 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-03 — S&P 500 EPS revisions trend upward to ~17% growth consensuspre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Operating margin expansion observed in non-megacap S&P sectorspre #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Multiple-expansion surprise materializes in 2026 H2cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — S&P 500 closes 2026 within 5% of 7,800 target (i.e., 7,400-8,200 range)cascade #3 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #4 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #4 · pending · 2026-11-30 — SWE-Bench Verified reaches ≥95%pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-02 — AI achieves Codeforces Grandmaster (2400+) or top-100 ICPC equivalentpre #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Frontier lab uses 'world-class programmer' framing in official communicationspre #1 · pending · 2027-11-15 — AI solves research-level (PhD-difficulty) coding problem unaidedcascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Frontier model passes standardized senior+ engineering interview processcascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Cascade: open-source model crosses world-class programmer thresholdcascade #3 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missioncascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Frontier lab announces general-knowledge-worker capability claimcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-30 — BLS shows multiple consecutive quarters of white-collar employment declinecascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major consultancy reports AI-driven cost reduction in target functionscascade #4 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Cumulative knowledge-worker layoffs >250K in 18-month windowcascade #5 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #4 · hit · 2025-12-01 — OpenAI Frontier Alliance launches with McKinsey/BCG/Accenture/Capgeminipre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — McKinsey survey shows >20% of organizations have scaled AI agentscascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Named F500 announces AI-native operating-model transformationcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — BCG reports >40% of companies successfully scaled AI to deliver business valuecascade #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — F500 average AI-related headcount restructuring announced (cascade)cascade #5 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #6 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-11 — Lovable reports $400M ARR with 146 employees ($2.77M ARR/FTE)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — SaaStr / industry consensus: $500K ARR/employee is the new $200K benchmarkpre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Cursor reaches $2B ARR (~$13.3M ARR/employee)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First public AI-native unicorn ($1B+ valuation) with <=10 FTEcascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: average AI-native seed-funded startup raises <=$2M before $10M ARRcascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-23 — Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulencecascade #3 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI deprecates SWE-Bench Verified as too contaminatedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-05-01 — Claude Mythos Preview crosses 90% on SWE-Bench Verifiedcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Long-horizon multi-day software-engineering benchmark crossed by Claude/GPTcascade #3 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Iterative self-improvement loop demonstrated on coding agentcascade #4 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift
77 plotted · 5 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to DOCN.
DOCN-impacting (4)
CMQ_030
ALAB · AMBA · AMD · ANET
In the modern AI pipeline, the CPU no longer merely supports the model — it drives the model (agentic workloads invert historical CPU:GPU ratio).
78% → 34% · resolves 2026-12
-44pp
CMQ_042
ALAB · AMBA · AMD · ANET
As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory.
72% → 35% · resolves 2026-12
-37pp
SEM_046
ADUS · AI · AMZN · APO
AI startups are scaling incredibly fast with significantly less capital — barrier to entry for complex software approaching zero.
75% → 53% · resolves 2028-12
-22pp
CMQ_037
ALAB · AMBA · AMD · ANET
Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4.
50% → 29% · resolves 2026-12
-21pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)
AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.