Timeline Fan

90 of 90 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

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Top predictors
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)
0255075100history230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis✓238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now✓240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months✓AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake✓238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)✓CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20✓AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o✓240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027✓FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna✓AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en✓242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission✓244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years✓241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation✓229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne✓IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct✓SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S✓SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil✓SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on✓232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti✓241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom✓AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026✓242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license✓233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra✓CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val✓246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers).✓238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if)✓247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston✓AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using✓IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do✓AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la✓AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c✓CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba✓247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial✓235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).✓245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE✓CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o✓246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.✓FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-✓ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin✓ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU✓INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva✓INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula✓SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f✓SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.✓INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n✓229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.✓248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.✓248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.✓ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence-✓CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to✓235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.✓SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc✓SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f✓237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca✓238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days✓232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.✓241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long✓245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed✓SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme✓248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.✓SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200✓229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.✓CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re✓CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi✓CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr✓SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate✓INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup✓INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor✓SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.✓SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying✓SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu✓SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual✓231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.✗231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.✗235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.✗244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years◐239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world◐INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol◐232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani◐236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours◐SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad◐AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey◐238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi◐231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.◐CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.◐AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree◐246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).◐247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently◐245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus◐INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn◐INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat◐246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.◐INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob◐SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se◐ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar◐INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await◐SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr◐INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive◐SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na◐SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u◐SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast◐SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10◐SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci◐CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go◐INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 —◐INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight◐INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive◐SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a◐Jan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2027FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2028FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2029FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2030FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2031FebMarAprMayJuntodaypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-26 — NVIDIA export controls will get even more aggressive in coming monthspre #4 · pending · 2026-09-11 — Nvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's entire advanced-process capacity.pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Terafab small-batch Tesla AI5 chip productionpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-09 — Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates lopre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Terafab volume production begins (100K wpm target)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Tesla AI5/AI6 chip share of Optimus + FSD silicon exceeds 50% from Terafabcascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-15 — Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustmentcascade #3 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #4 · pending · 2031-12-29 — Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Tesla begins underwriting its own AV insurance policiespre #5 · pending · 2026-10-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major OEM publicly accepts AV product liability when autonomous mode engagedpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Dual-layer insurance structure becomes industry standardpre #5 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-02-17 — Tesla reveals Optimus Gen 3 hand patents (50 actuators, 22 DoF/hand)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Tesla Optimus V3 official reveal event late July / early August 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Tesla Optimus V3 begins formal production at Fremontcascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Optimus V3 Tesla AI5 chip integrated with Grok / xAI co-processingcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Tesla Optimus Gen 4 announced (2027 yearly cadence test)cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-22 — Tesla Q1 2026 update confirms 5.2M sq ft Optimus expansion at Giga Texaspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Geopier foundation work begins at Giga Texas Optimus sitepre #4 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Low-volume Optimus output begins from Austin facilitypre #1 · pending · 2026-09-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Major structural work completed by end of 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Tesla Optimus reaches 1M unit annualized run-ratepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla repurposes Fremont Model S/X line for Optimus productionpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Optimus units perform measurable factory tasks at Tesla plantspre #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Tesla output per employee grows ≥30% YoYpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Tesla's labor productivity outpaces auto-industry peers by ≥2xcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-03 — Tesla Texas factory reduces headcount 22% in 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Tesla cuts >14,000 roles globally in 2025pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Tesla Q2 2026 hiring announcement materializescascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla Optimus production drives >2,000 manufacturing hirescascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cybercab/Robotaxi launch reduces ICE workforce furthercascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-15 — Trump administration approves H200 sales to China with 25% revenue sharepre #5 · hit · 2026-01-15 — BIS final rule effective: H200 + AMD MI325X license review made more flexible (NOT more aggressive)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Cascade: NVIDIA reports declining China data-center revenue despite policy easingcascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Major chip-smuggling enforcement action ($100M+ scale) prosecutedcascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-30 — Blackwell architecture remains barred from China sales through 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.pre #4 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Nvidia data-center revenue exceeds $50B in a single quarterpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in deccascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Meta signs contract to rent Google Cloud TPUs starting 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Nvidia FY2026 annual revenue crosses $200Bcascade #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Google TPU market share exceeds 13% of AI accelerator revenuecascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Both NVDA and GOOGL deliver positive 2026 calendar-year stock returnscascade #5 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-12 — Cursor launches long-running agents in research previewpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Google Vertex AI ships long-running agents as named productcascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Task duration doubling every 7 months continuescascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Multi-hour autonomous research/engineering agents reach 8-hour workday capabilitycascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Enterprise agentic deployment grows 8x from early 2025 to end-2026cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in UScascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #5 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Starcloud public update on multi-GW orbital DC roadmappre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Meta-Overview Energy 1 GW space-solar reservation milestonepre #1 · pending · 2026-09-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Academic / industry consensus that earth-bound GW AI factories scale through 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Lunar mass-driver / SBSP feasibility study publishedpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Tesla AI Day / Optimus Day demonstrates commercial customerspre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — SpaceX IPO valuation comes in at or above $2T anchorcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — xAI / Grok crosses 100M weekly active users or $5B ARRcascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Combined Musk-ecosystem valuation (TSLA+SpaceX+xAI+Boring+Neuralink) crosses NVDA market capcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Lap test fails: NVDA market cap stays >=2x combined Musk ecosystem valuationcascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #6 · pending · 2042-12-21 — Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first.pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mixed-fleet rideshare app standard becomes industry defaultpre #4 · pending · 2027-12-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-15 — AV market share remains <30% of rideshare miles in any major metropre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First non-rideshare hybrid AV deployment crosses 1M paid tripspre #1 · pending · 2028-09-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-23 — Uber confirms 20+ AV partnerships globally across freight, delivery, and robotaxispre #5 · hit · 2026-03-26 — Uber/Pony.ai/Verne launch Europe's first commercial robotaxi service in Zagrebpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Uber expands autonomous services to Hong Kong, Houston, Madrid, Zurichcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Uber launches Tokyo robotaxi pilot with Nissan and Wayvecascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-22 — Uber discloses operating in 15+ cities with AV partners on Q4 2026 earningscascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in UScascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — China multi-AV ecosystem: 4 robotaxi services compete in Beijing/Shanghai/Guangzhoupre #5 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Zoox launches commercial robotaxi on Uber app in Las Vegaspre #4 · pending · 2027-02-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Combined non-Waymo AV providers operate >5K commercial vehicles in USpre #1 · pending · 2028-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — At least 5 distinct AV providers achieve commercial revenue >$100M annuallypre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — First investor or analyst report values the autonomous mobility TAM at >=$1Tpre #5 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Waymo plus Tesla combined commercial robotaxi presence in >=20 metro areaspre #3 · pending · 2027-12-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-30 — Combined US autonomous mobility commercial revenue exceeds $5B annualizedpre #1 · pending · 2028-10-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Autonomous mobility marketplace recognized by mainstream press as multi-hundred-billion categorypre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Waymo crosses 1 million weekly autonomous rides milestonepre #5 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Waymo or Tesla operate driverless service in 20+ US metrospre #3 · pending · 2027-11-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — NHTSA publishes official AV crash-rate report showing safety advantagepre #1 · pending · 2028-08-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — US traffic fatality rate falls 10%+ from 2024 baselinepre #6 · pending · 2027-01-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-01 — NHTSA issues Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) update with explicit AV safety-case thresholdpre #4 · pending · 2027-10-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Independent crash data shows AVs >=2x safer than human drivers on per-mile basis (peer-reviewed)pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-06 — Federal preemption framework replaces state-by-state AV patchworkcascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — First state mandates AV-only routes/lanes during peak hours based on safety casepre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tesla launches consumer-vehicle Unsupervised FSD to retail customerspre #5 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — NHTSA closes FSD traffic-safety investigation without enforcement actionpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Cybercab production exceeds 5,000 units per quarterpre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-01 — Human safety drivers fully removed from Tesla FSD backup role across all commercial fleetspre #6 · pending · 2027-02-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First peer-reviewed AV safety study at 100M+ rider-only milespre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major insurance regulator approves AV-specific actuarial classpre #3 · pending · 2027-12-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — NHTSA publishes AV-fleet aggregate safety report endorsing safety-superiority claimpre #1 · pending · 2028-09-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First major auto insurer publishes AV-discount productpre #5 · pending · 2027-02-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Per-mile robotaxi fare drops below per-mile rideshare with human driverpre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Industry-wide commercial auto liability premium index declinepre #1 · pending · 2028-09-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Tesla, Zoox, Uber-Lucid-Nuro all simultaneously operating commercial robotaxi (multi-stack proof)pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-15 — NHTSA finalizes federal AV regulatory framework allowing multi-vendor competitionpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — 5+ AV stacks reach 100K+ rides/month independentlypre #2 · pending · 2028-06-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — International AV operators (Wayve UK, Baidu, Pony, Toyota) confirm US market entrypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — AV fleets reach 10-20% of trips in operating citiespre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Waymo fleet remains under 5K vehicles (vs ~250M US registered cars)pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Average vehicle age in US passenger fleet remains >12 yearscascade #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Robotaxi share of US rideshare market reaches ~8% (Goldman target)pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Robotaxi cost-per-mile to consumer falls below $1.50 in any US marketpre #5 · pending · 2027-12-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Driverless rides exceed 1% of total US rideshare market sharepre #3 · pending · 2028-04-28 — Industry body or McKinsey publishes 'autonomous adoption curve >50% in developed markets by 2035' studypre #2 · pending · 2028-10-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Waymo or Tesla operates commercial robotaxi service in 4+ countries outside UScascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-25 — Autonomous becomes very big part of developed marketspre #6 · pending · 2027-12-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Zero major Latin American or African capital city has commercial driverless servicepre #4 · pending · 2028-01-12 — WEF or World Bank report flags AV-divide between developed and developing marketspre #3 · pending · 2028-02-29 — India publishes national autonomous-vehicle regulatory frameworkpre #2 · pending · 2028-10-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Uber's developing-market driverless ride share remains <2% by 2028cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-24 — Developing-market autonomous penetration delay confirmed by 2029pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Robotaxi fleets operate in 20+ markets across 10+ countriespre #5 · pending · 2027-02-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — US new-car sales decline 10%+ YoY in major metros with robotaxi servicepre #2 · pending · 2028-08-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-14 — Survey shows >25% of urban US adults consider not owning a car due to robotaxi accesspre #3 · pending · 2027-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla robotaxi undercuts Waymo fares by ~50% in head-to-head market (Dallas)pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — AAA / Edmunds publish 2026 cost-of-ownership analysis showing private car >$1.10/mi all-inpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Sixth-generation Waymo hardware deployment narrows cost gappre #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Waymo reaches 1M weekly paid rides milestonepre #6 · pending · 2027-03-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — WeRide-Uber 1,200 robotaxi Middle East deployment substantially executed across Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Riyadhpre #4 · pending · 2028-01-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — WeRide-Uber expand from 3 of 15 contracted Middle East cities to >=8 citiespre #2 · pending · 2028-11-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — UAE/KSA robotaxi penetration on Uber app exceeds top US market share by AV-trip volumepre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Uber operates robotaxis in 15 US/global cities by end of 2026pre #5 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Uber begins scaling global autonomous fleet toward 100,000 vehicles starting 2027pre #4 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Total active drivers on Uber platform globally exceeds 8M (vs ~7.4M in 2024)pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-17 — AV ride-hail surge demand creates 'driver multiplier' — net new gig roles grow despite AV penetrationpre #1 · pending · 2030-10-01 — Hybrid human+AV operations dominant model: 80%+ Uber trips still human-driven by 2030cascade #1 · pending · 2031-07-30 — In 5 years, 70-80% of cars will be autonomous, especially hooked up to your AI.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #4 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Uber-Zoox / Uber-Waymo robotaxi launch in 5+ new cities by year-endcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Driver-survey data (Edison/Pew/QuickTake) reports 20% intent-to-leave annual ratecascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-23 — Uber Q2 2026 / Q3 2026 earnings disclose driver attrition or active-driver countcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS Rideshare-driver category data update through 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Driver-headcount stabilization signal: Uber 2027 disclosed driver count flat or up despite robotaxi growthcascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in USpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-18 — Tesla robotaxi unsupervised launch in Dallas/Houston (Apr 2026)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First academic/industry study confirms autonomous fleets generating net-new ride demand (vs cannibalizing human drivers)pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Combined Waymo+Tesla US robotaxi fleet >10,000 active vehiclespre #1 · pending · 2028-08-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Uber/Lyft total US gross bookings >=10% above pre-AV-launch baseline trendpre #5 · hit · 2026-03-27 — Waymo aggregate weekly rides reach 500K by end of Q1 2026pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Waymo expands Austin and Atlanta service zones in 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Austin/Atlanta Uber-Waymo partnership exceeds 25% of ride sharecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — S&P Global confirms Sun Belt cities outpace national autonomous growthcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Waymo targets 1M weekly rides by end-2026cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in UScascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Robotaxi fares hit 60% discount vs human-driven equivalent rides in mature marketspre #5 · pending · 2027-10-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Robotaxi available in >=20 US metros with sustained pricing competitionpre #3 · pending · 2028-07-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-23 — Personal car ownership rates begin measurable decline in robotaxi-saturated metrospre #1 · pending · 2028-11-07 — Average US ride-hail fare per mile crosses below $0.75 (sustained quarterly average)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Uber announces driver-to-fleet-manager onboarding pilot programpre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First 1,000 driver-to-fleet-manager transitions documentedpre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — AV financing product / loan vehicle available to former rideshare driverscascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Uber reports 10,000+ small-fleet-owner partners in AV economycascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from nowcascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #5 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #5 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Uber-Nuro driverless Lucid robotaxi launches in SF Bay Areapre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Waymo crosses 1M weekly paid robotaxi ridespre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AV chip-supply bottleneck flagged by Uber/Waymo as scaling constraintpre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Uber autonomous fleet target 100,000 vehicles announced for scale-upcascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Driver share of revenue compresses on US ride-hail platformscascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from nowcascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #5 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Robotaxis surpass 5% of US ride-hailing rides nationallypre #3 · pending · 2028-10-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Major US auto manufacturer reports YoY decline in private vehicle sales attributed to AVpre #1 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Mainstream news outlets characterize 'autonomous revolution' as larger societal shift than ride-hailing erapre #6 · pending · 2027-12-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-28 — First US state passes legislation reducing driver-license testing or relaxing requirements due to AV adoptionpre #4 · pending · 2028-04-14 — Major US insurer launches 'driver-optional' or 'no-driver' policy productpre #3 · pending · 2028-10-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — US driver's license issuance rate to 16-19 year olds drops below 60%pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-30 — Driverless miles exceed 5% of total US light-vehicle miles traveled annuallycascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-27 — Cultural recognition of declining driver populationpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Waymo carries $5M primary liability + MedPay insurance layerpre #5 · pending · 2027-02-08 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First state codifies layered AV insurance structure into lawpre #3 · pending · 2027-11-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Product liability becomes routine third layer in major AV insurance disputespre #1 · pending · 2028-08-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — AV insurance market crosses $5B in annual premium volumepre #6 · hit · 2026-03-27 — Waymo provides 500K paid rides/week, on path to 1M/week by end-2026pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Survey-based AV trust crosses 80% in major US robotaxi marketspre #2 · pending · 2028-09-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — Robotaxi rides surpass human-driven rideshare on at least one major Uber route/citypre #6 · hit · 2025-09-15 — Robotaxi cost projected 40% below Uber/Lyft by 2027pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-23 — Uber Autonomous Solutions launches with cost-per-mile reduction stated objectivepre #4 · pending · 2027-02-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First robotaxi market with average price <50% of human ride-hail equivalentpre #2 · pending · 2027-11-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-12-16 — Robotaxi market reaches $100B+ valuation by 2030pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialcascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Uber-Pony.ai commercial robotaxi service launches in a European citycascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Khosrowshahi confirms Uber operating with Chinese AV partners in 10+ countries by year-end 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Uber-Baidu robotaxi launches in London or other non-China non-US marketcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Uber-WeRide expands to 5+ Middle East/Europe cities beyond Saudi Arabia/Dubaicascade #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Uber discloses cumulative robotaxi rides via Chinese AV partners crossing 1Mcascade #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: Uber files investor update splitting AV ride economics from human-driver baselinepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Waymo + Tesla combined US robotaxi fleet exceeds 5,000 vehicles by end of 2026pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First state issues fully unsupervised AV operator permit covering 5+ metro areaspre #2 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Annual US new-vehicle sales with full-self-driving hardware crosses 50% markcascade #1 · pending · 2029-10-31 — Q4 2029 — driver's license still required in Ilia's home statecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in UScascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #5 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Waymo (GOOGL) crosses 250K weekly rides across all marketscascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Pony.ai expands robotaxi fleet to 3,000 vehicles in 20+ citiescascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — WeRide robotaxi fleet crosses 2,600 vehiclescascade #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Tesla Robotaxi national service launches in 5+ U.S. metroscascade #5 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First U.S. state files legislation reducing driver-license renewal cadence citing AVscascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Auto insurance industry reports first material premium decline due to AV displacementpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Uber/Lucid commitment expanded to 35,000 robotaxi vehiclespre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #1 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Robotaxi service in 10+ Uber cities by year-end 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: Uber's published EV-share metric exceeds 30% in top marketscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from nowcascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #6 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First successful CRISPR-engineered chytrid-resistant frog line published in peer-reviewed journalpre #5 · pending · 2028-01-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Colossal Foundation or partner publishes Bd-resistance gene multiplex editing protocol in great spotted tree frog or corpre #3 · pending · 2028-11-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — First field release of gene-edited chytrid-resistant amphibian population approved by national wildlife regulatorpre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — IUCN Red List downlists at least one chytrid-affected species citing genetic-rescue interventionpre #6 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First major liability case / regulatory action explicitly faulting human-authored code over AI alternativepre #3 · pending · 2027-10-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Code-vs-driver legal recognition timing test — code recognition arrives firstpre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — AV legal landmark — first jurisdiction making human driving a presumptive negligence baseline vs autonomy on equipped ropre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — China controls ~60% global power transformer production capacity (supply constraint)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-08 — Transformer lead times confirmed at 5+ years (vs prior 24-30 months)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — 30-50% of planned 2026 capacity slips to 2028 per industry analysiscascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Hyperscaler capex still >$650B in 2026 despite delays (creates inflation risk)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Austin and Atlanta autonomous markets growing faster than national averagepre #5 · pending · 2026-09-08 — Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-09 — About 20% of drivers slough off Uber platform annuallypre #3 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Tesla Robotaxi unsupervised commercial service in ≥3 metrospre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First FAA Type Certificate for eVTOL (Joby or Archer)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-08-16 — Commercial eVTOL passenger service operating in LA by July 2028cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in UScascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #5 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in deccascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-24 — Something bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance.cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-29 — US state passes data center moratorium beyond bill stage (signed into law)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Sanders/AOC AI Data Center Moratorium Act gets committee markup or votecascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Hyperscaler announces canceled or relocated AI data center build citing community/utility oppositioncascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US residential power costs rise >=15% YoY in any state with major data-center clustercascade #6 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Major hyperscaler announces dedicated orbital compute initiative explicitly citing earth-side constraintspre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — NVIDIA officially launches Vera CPU rack purpose-built for agentic AIpre #5 · hit · 2026-03-31 — NVIDIA unveils Agent OS / NeMoClaw operating system for agentspre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Vera Rubin platform reaches general availability with cloud partner deploymentpre #1 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — NVIDIA agentic-AI revenue line crosses $10B annualizedpre #6 · hit · 2026-03-16 — Six space-AI partners named at launch (Aetherflux, Axiom, Kepler, Planet, Sophia, Starcloud)pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-01 — First Vera Rubin Space Module ships to a paying orbital customerpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First Rubin-class AI inference workload runs on-orbit (not just imaging payload)pre #2 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — First lunar-surface AI compute deployment announcement (NVIDIA-class hardware)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2025-09-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2026-03-31 — GTC 2026: Rosa CPU (successor to Vera) announced; Feynman 3D-stacked GPU details disclosedpre #4 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Vera Rubin NVL144 launch (2026): 3.6 EFLOPS FP4, 1.2 EFLOPS FP8 inference/trainingpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Rubin Ultra (2027): SXM8 with 4 reticle-limited GPU chiplets, 100 PFLOPS FP4, 1TB HBM4Ecascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Feynman GPU launch (2028): advanced 3D stacking, custom HBM, Rosa CPU pairingpre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-25 — NVIDIA full-year FY2026 data center revenue ~$197Bpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Hyperscaler 2026 AI capex commitments ~$700B confirmedpre #3 · pending · 2026-09-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — NVIDIA crosses $5T market capitalization sustainablypre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Industry/analyst consensus aligns with $3-5T cumulative AI infra TAM through 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — NVIDIA cumulative 2025-2027 data center revenue exceeds $500B (run-rate trajectory toward $3-5T TAM)pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-22 — Three-supplier 16-Hi HBM4 sample delivery to NVIDIApre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — SK Hynix begins HBM4 mass production for NVIDIA Rubinpre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Combined HBM industry quarterly revenue exceeds $20Bpre #1 · pending · 2027-02-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-25 — Arm publishes AGI CPU thesis confirming CPU renaissance for agentic AIpre #4 · hit · 2026-03-18 — Jensen Huang at GTC publicly frames CPU as central to agentic AIpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-20 — Morgan Stanley publishes Rise of AI Agents thesis: GPU bottleneck shifts to CPUpre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — CPU:GPU ratio in agentic workloads exceeds 1:1 cluster-level by 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Server CPU TAM grows ≥15% annually 2026-2030 per Morgan Stanley estimatepre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-15 — SK Hynix achieves 16-layer HBM4 mass productionpre #4 · pending · 2026-09-26 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — HBM4 yield-related supply shortage reported in 2H 2026pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Micron 16-Hi HBM4 mass productionpre #6 · hit · 2025-10-29 — SK Hynix sells out 2026 DRAM/HBM/NAND supply to NVIDIApre #5 · overdue · 2026-03-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-03-31 — SK Hynix HBM4 shipments to NVIDIA Rubin start in March 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — UBS forecasts SK Hynix 70% HBM4 share for NVIDIA Rubinpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Year-end 2026 SK Hynix HBM share remains ≥50%cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Samsung Foundry challenges SK Hynix dominance with HBM4 winspre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-15 — Samsung passes Nvidia HBM4 qualification and signs Vera Rubin supply contractpre #5 · overdue · 2026-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Samsung HBM4 mass production begins shipmentspre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Samsung secures approximately 30% of Nvidia's 2026 HBM4 allocation (vs SK hynix ~70%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Vera Rubin platform begins volume ramp in second half 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Samsung global HBM market share crosses 28% threshold per TrendForce/Counterpointpre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-20 — Morgan Stanley publishes formal Rise of AI Agents report — GPU-to-CPU pivot thesispre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-22 — CPU-side orchestration is empirically measured at 50-90% of agentic workload latencypre #2 · pending · 2026-07-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Hyperscaler greenfield CPU racks deployed exclusively for agentic AIcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Memory and CPU vendors outperform GPU pure-plays in 2026-27 returnscascade #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — DRAM demand from agentic workloads adds 15-45 EB by 2030cascade #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — $32.5-60B incremental CPU TAM materialized by 2030 per Morgan Stanleypre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major hyperscaler announces agentic-rack architecture with disclosed CPU:GPU ratio >=1:2pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Intel/AMD/ARM CPU vendor reports orchestration-CPU revenue tied to agentic workloads as named segmentpre #4 · pending · 2027-11-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Industry-wide cluster-level CPU:GPU ratio shift confirmed at 1:1-1:2 in TrendForce/IDC datapre #2 · pending · 2028-10-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Orchestration-CPU TAM tracking toward Morgan Stanley $82.5B-$110B 2030 projectionpre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Starcloud / Aetherflux launches 100+ kW orbital AI compute nodepre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Starcloud 88K satellite constellation FCC application progressespre #4 · pending · 2027-08-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-04-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-16 — First operational orbital AI-DC reaches 1MW continuous compute powerpre #6 · hit · 2026-01-12 — NVIDIA + Eli Lilly announce $1B AI co-innovation lab on BioNeMo platformpre #5 · hit · 2026-03-16 — Roche launches NVIDIA-powered AI factory for therapeutics developmentpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — ≥200 AI-discovered drug programs in clinical developmentpre #3 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-16 — First BioNeMo / Evo 2-designed therapeutic enters Phase 1 human trialpre #1 · pending · 2028-02-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — ≥1 BioNeMo-designed drug receives FDA breakthrough/fast-track designationpre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — xAI Colossus crosses 555K GPUspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-08 — Microsoft contracts 30K Rubin GPUs at Norway data centerpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US government action: data-center grid build-out Defense Production Act invocationpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Hundreds-of-millions GPUs deployed across leading clusters by end-2027cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — TSMC Arizona phase 2 begins 3nm mass productionpre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Data center occupancy peaks ~95% late 2026, moderates starting 2027pre #5 · pending · 2028-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Blackwell/Rubin GPU spot prices fall >30% from 2026 peak ASPpre #3 · pending · 2029-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-16 — First major US power-PPA gets renegotiated downward by hyperscalerpre #1 · pending · 2030-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-22 — Tesla Q1 2026 earnings: Fremont line conversion confirmed for late July/Augpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Optimus low-volume production starts at Fremont (summer 2026)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Optimus retail price publicly disclosed at $20-30K per unitcascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — First Optimus retail customer / external sales contract announcedcascade #4 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Cumulative external Optimus units sold >=100pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Hyperscaler PPA-driven cancellation/delay of >=10 GW US data center capacity in single yearpre #5 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Hyperscalers move to direct generation financing (gas turbines, SMRs) at >=5 GW combined commitmentpre #4 · pending · 2027-12-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Long-term firm power contracts (>=10 yr) on PJM/ERCOT/MISO interconnection queue exceed 200 GWpre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Cascade: utility regulatory body imposes data center curtailment or queue rationingpre #1 · pending · 2028-11-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-05-22 — SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-17 — Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-25 — Bloom Energy / Lumentum / CoreWeave become top-3 fund holdingspre #5 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Bitcoin miner converts to AI compute facilitypre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI infrastructure ETF (e.g. WGMI, ATO, IPO funds) AUM crosses $20Bpre #3 · pending · 2027-04-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Pure-software developer SaaS company multiple compresses by ≥30% vs infrastructure peerspre #1 · pending · 2028-05-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2031-09-02 — Single-person conglomerates with agents running businesses will be common in ~5 years.cascade #3 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-17 — Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity.pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-04-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-05-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-05-22 — SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-17 — Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity.pre #6 · hit · 2025-07-15 — July 2025 reversal of H20 chip banpre #5 · hit · 2025-08-11 — Trump-Nvidia 15% China revenue deal announcedpre #4 · overdue · 2025-09-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · overdue · 2025-12-30 — First Nvidia quarterly earnings disclosing China revenue post-dealpre #2 · overdue · 2026-02-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-05-02 — Legal/constitutional challenge to revenue-share arrangementcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-19 — We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rewrite their own code.cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Other countries impose similar revenue-share on US tech exportscascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-13 — By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-24 — Corporate CEOs will use AI to cut costs by 30-50%, yielding 3-10x productivity gains per worker.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock).cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust.pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Huawei Ascend 950PR begins mass production at SMICpre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — ByteDance + Alibaba large Ascend 950PR purchase orders confirmed ($5B+ scale)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Huawei in-house HBM ships in 950PR variant (resilience milestone)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — SMIC reaches 60K wafers/month advanced-node (7nm/5nm) capacitycascade #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Cascade: NVIDIA China data-center revenue lags expectations as Ascend 950PR captures sharecascade #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cumulative Ascend 910C + 950 series shipments cross 1.6M dies in 2026cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-28 — TSMC 2nm baseline at end-2025: 30K-40K wafers/monthpre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-27 — TSMC 3nm output target raised to 180K wafers/month by EOY 2026pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — TSMC 2nm priced 50% above 3nmcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — TSMC 2nm reaches ~100K wafers/month by end-2026 (matches thesis)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-25 — Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become commoncascade #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: TSMC 2nm output exceeds 3nm by 2x by 2027cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-25 — Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become commoncascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Samsung 2nm yields reach 55-60% commercially viable levelpre #3 · pending · 2026-06-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Samsung 2nm foundry capacity scales to 100K wpm in 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Samsung wins major Western customer (AMD, Qualcomm, Tesla, or hyperscaler) for sub-7nm productioncascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Combined Samsung 3nm + 5nm + 2nm sub-7nm capacity reaches 150K wpmcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Samsung 1c DRAM scales to 200K wafers/month (related capacity buildout)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-25 — Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become commoncascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — TSMC advanced chip capacity booked out through 2028 confirmedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · hit · 2026-03-31 — TSMC 3nm and 5nm production fully booked for 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — SMIC advanced-process capacity remains <125,000 wafers in 2026 (8x gap holds)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — NVIDIA Q2-Q4 2026 data-center revenue confirms 800K wafer absorptioncascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — TSMC's 3nm capacity reaches 180,000 wafers/month by end-2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Hyperscalers sign 3-year prepaid GPU supply contractspre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Hyperscaler 2026 AI infrastructure capex exceeds $660Bpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-07 — Semi sector earnings beat consensus through Q3 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Major analyst downgrades semis citing AI bubble in 2H 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-20 — Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-28 — HBM4 mass production launches February 2026 at SK Hynixpre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-31 — Server DRAM contract prices rise 55-60% in Q1 2026pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-01 — HBM4 reaches $500/stack pricing benchmarkpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Memory stocks (Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung) outperform PHLX SOX in 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #4 · pending · 2029-04-10 — Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starshipcascade #5 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-08-12 — Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-08-30 — NVDA trades through $250 within 12-month target windowpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Hyperscaler 2026 capex commits exceed $600B per CreditSightspre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — MS raises NVDA target above $250 to next bull-case rungcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Rubin R100 begins customer sampling Q4 2026pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — HBM4 mass production crosses 50K wafers/monthpre #1 · pending · 2027-06-15 — Rubin Ultra NVL576 product unveilcascade #1 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Rubin contributes ≥30% of NVIDIA Data Center revenuecascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-20 — Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #3 · pending · 2029-04-10 — Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starshipcascade #4 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-08-12 — Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day)cascade #6 · pending · 2031-05-22 — SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-31 — DRAM consumer prices reach $700 (March 2026)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — HBM contract prices up high-teens to low-twenties in 2026pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — NVIDIA cuts RTX 50-series consumer Blackwell production 30-40%cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — HBM consumes 23% of total DRAM wafer capacitycascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Cascade: Memory price relief delayed until 2027-2029cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #5 · pending · 2029-04-10 — Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starshipcascade #6 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-01 — xAI-SpaceX-Tesla three-way combination publicly proposed by Musk or boardpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — SpaceX completes traditional IPO without Tesla reverse merger structure (DISCONFIRMING signal)pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Wall Street analyst consensus shifts toward Tesla-SpaceX merger 2027 timeline (Teslarati-cited prediction validated)pre #2 · pending · 2028-05-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-01-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift
86 plotted · 4 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to AMBA.

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)
AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.