Timeline Fan

245 of 245 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

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Click a symbol to scope to claims affecting that company

CRWV 481 NBIS 480 CBRS 245 MU 245 NVDA 245 ALAB 240 CORZ 240 DELL 240 IREN 240 LNVGY 240 ASML 237 STX 223 AMZN 220 GOOGL 220

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Off (single timeline)$1T+ IPO AGI AI pause ASI Mars uncrewed Recession Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)

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Yes (≥1 ticker, default)No (all predictions)

Window

next 12 mo next 24 mo next 5 yr (default)5y + tail

Resolved

Hide (default — live forecasts only)Include Resolved only

Top predictors

All Alex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)

125 plotted · 120 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to MU.

MU-impacting (4)

247_023

AAPL · ACN · ALAB · AMT

AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently

72% → 41% · resolves 2027-06

-31pp

CMQ_037

ALAB · AMBA · AMD · ANET

Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4.

50% → 24% · resolves 2026-12

-26pp

246_055

AAPL · ACN · ALAB · AMT

We WILL figure out AI safety/regulation but only after something really bad happens.

65% → 45% · resolves 2030-11

-20pp

242_008

AAPL · ACN · ALAB · AMT

Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensed

60% → 40% · resolves 2029-11

-20pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)

AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum

Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.