0 25 50 75 100 history 230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis ✓ 238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now ✓ 240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months ✓ AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake ✓ 238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) ✓ CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20 ✓ AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o ✓ 240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 ✓ FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna ✓ AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en ✓ 242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission ✓ 244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years ✓ 241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation ✓ 229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne ✓ IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct ✓ SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S ✓ SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil ✓ SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on ✓ 232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti ✓ 241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom ✓ AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓ 234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 ✓ 242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license ✓ 233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra ✓ CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val ✓ 246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers). ✓ 238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) ✓ 247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston ✓ AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using ✓ IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do ✓ AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓ CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la ✓ AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c ✓ CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba ✓ 247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial ✓ 235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). ✓ 245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE ✓ CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o ✓ 246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. ✓ FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain- ✓ ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin ✓ ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU ✓ INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva ✓ INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula ✓ SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f ✓ SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. ✓ INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n ✓ 229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. ✓ 248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. ✓ 248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. ✓ ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence- ✓ CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to ✓ 235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. ✓ SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc ✓ SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f ✓ 237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca ✓ 238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days ✓ 232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. ✓ 241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long ✓ 245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed ✓ SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme ✓ 248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. ✓ SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200 ✓ 229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. ✓ CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re ✓ CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi ✓ CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr ✓ SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate ✓ INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup ✓ INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor ✓ SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. ✓ SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying ✓ SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓ SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu ✓ SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual ✓ 231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. ✗ 231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. ✗ 235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. ✗ 244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years ◐ 239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world ◐ INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol ◐ 232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani ◐ 236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours ◐ SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad ◐ AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey ◐ 238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi ◐ 231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. ◐ CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐ 246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. ◐ AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree ◐ 246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). ◐ 247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently ◐ 245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus ◐ INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn ◐ INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat ◐ 246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. ◐ INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob ◐ SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se ◐ ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar ◐ INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await ◐ SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr ◐ INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive ◐ SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐ SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na ◐ SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u ◐ SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast ◐ SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10 ◐ SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci ◐ CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go ◐ INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — ◐ INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight ◐ INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive ◐ SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a ◐ Jan 2026 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2027 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2028 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2029 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2030 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2031 Feb Mar Apr May Jun today pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — McKinsey runs 20K AI agents alongside 40K humans (1:2 ratio) pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First publicly named >50%-AI-employee company emerges with valuation >$100M cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Pure-AI company (zero human operational employees) emerges and operates >6 months cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2028-10-31 — Cascade: SEC / state regulator issues guidance on AI-only entity legal status cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #5 · hit · 2025-11-01 — AI-powered digital arbitration framework with smart contracts published showing 99.5% time reduction and 92.4% expert-ra pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-01 — AI agents holding their own private keys, managing capital, entering contracts without human sign-off (autonomous econom pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First sovereign jurisdiction recognizes blockchain-anchored AI arbitration award as enforceable pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Charter city or autonomous zone deploys end-to-end programmable governance stack (smart-contract law, AI dispute resolut pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — $1B+ in disputes resolved annually via AI+crypto arbitration platforms (Kleros-style or successors) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US AI-attributed layoffs cross 500K cumulative pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First clear sectoral AI-driven employment decline (legal, software, customer service) pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-31 — BLS unemployment rate stays below 6% during initial AI-displacement wave pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-30 — No single month sees >500K AI-attributed layoffs (no shock event) pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cumulative AI-attributed displacement reaches 5M jobs without unemployment spike >7% pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Active AI/agent open-source projects reach 10,000+ on GitHub pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First sub-$1M AI startup achieves $1B ARR or $1B valuation in <12 months pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Permissionless agentic disruption creates new $10B+ market category pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Top-50 incumbent collapses or reverses course due to permissionless competitor cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #5 · hit · 2026-01-31 — AI inference cost falls >=900x per million tokens since 2023 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-28 — Top economist publicly cites Jevons Paradox to explain AI labor expansion pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — AI capex spend approaches $650-725B in 2026 pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AI inference industry spend exceeds $50B in 2026 (Jevons rebound) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — BEA productivity statistics show >=2% annualized labor productivity growth sustained 6+ quarters pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — India overtakes Japan to become 4th largest nominal GDP economy pre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — India contribution to global GDP growth crosses 20% (vs ~17% in 2024) pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — China nominal GDP growth turns negative in any single quarter pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — FT/Economist cover narrative: 'India century' replaces 'Chinese century' pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — India overtakes Germany to become 3rd largest nominal GDP economy cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-30 — PwC ChatGPT Enterprise reseller volume scales as Big-4 AI revenue line pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Big-4 + MBB collective AI investment crosses $15B cumulative pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — OpenAI consulting division pressures Big-4 advisory pricing pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Accenture AI Refinery client count crosses 5,000 enterprises cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Big-4 advisory revenue grows >=20% YoY driven by AI transformation contracts cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Digital twin sector funding sees 600%+ YoY surge pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — PE firms raise dedicated AI/digital-transformation funds cascade #2 · hit · 2026-02-25 — Tech M&A boom rolls through 2026 with PE-led AI deals cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — First specific PE-AI digital twin acquisition of mid-cap target cascade #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Portfolio company demonstrates 3-5x cost collapse through AI cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Meta cuts 8,000 employees at $35B+ AI capex (2026 large-cap pivot attempt) pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — ≥3 of top-10 incumbent retailers/banks/automakers go through CEO ouster citing AI strategy failure cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — GSA AI clause GSAR 552.239-7001 finalized and adopted into MAS contracts pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — USAi (federal common AI environment) reaches >=20 federal agency users pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — DoD/VA/HHS combined AI-related contract obligations exceed $20B/year pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — FDA approves first AI-as-medical-device for autonomous diagnostic use without clinician sign-off pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Veterans Affairs AI claims/benefits processing achieves >=50% automation rate cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — DoD/DoW classification framework for AI labs published pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Anthropic files legal/administrative challenge to classification pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Initial ruling or injunction in Anthropic challenge cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Final ruling on classification challenge cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Tesla begins underwriting its own AV insurance policies pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major OEM publicly accepts AV product liability when autonomous mode engaged pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Dual-layer insurance structure becomes industry standard pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — ≥1 high-profile $1B+ AI-startup failure in 2026 pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — AI-cited job cuts cross 100K cumulative threshold pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-26 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — ≥1 S&P 500 incumbent files Chapter 11 with AI disruption cited pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-16 — AI venture funding 2026 H1 exceeds $200B globally pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Open-weight frontier model released by sub-$10M lab pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Solo / small-team product reaches ≥100K MAU on agent stack pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — PDI gauntlet: Top 10 AI products built with <$1M founding capital by 2027 cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — XPRIZE Wildfire $11M competition awards 2026 finalist winners pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-15 — XPRIZE Water Scarcity semifinals testing begins ($119M competition) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — XPRIZE launches new $100M+ competition explicitly tied to fundamental AI/AGI safety or grand-challenge pre #2 · pending · 2028-04-28 — Multi-XPRIZE winners attract follow-on commercial deployment >=$1B aggregate pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-13 — Public-narrative shift: mainstream coverage frames XPRIZE-style approaches as default for civilizational challenges cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Goldman Sachs / BLS update to AI-displacement model showing 25% of work hours automated pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Nvidia-style productivity case study replicates — second Fortune-100 company shows revenue/headcount decoupling pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — BLS Business Formation Statistics show ≥ 5x acceleration in new business applications (gates the "5x more companies" cla cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — US unemployment rate remains within ±1pp of pre-AI baseline through end of target window (employment-flat check) cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Salim Ismail publishes The Shift on Organizational Singularity cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Fortune 500 average AI deployment ratio crosses 50% cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Federal/state government AI procurement orders cross $5B cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major nonprofit (Red Cross, UN, Gates) announces AI-native restructure cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — 10x productivity case studies published from at least 5 industries cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — OECD reports AI displaces >=10% of white-collar tasks economy-wide pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Critical analysis questions enterprise-readiness of OpenClaw vs Bedrock AgentCore cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — OpenClaw competing solutions emerge from Microsoft/Google cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Enterprise pilot announcements citing measurable productivity gains cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Hyperscaler AI capex guide-down (>=10%) for 2027 due to efficiency gains pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Distillation/quantization yield documented 10x+ further inference gains in 2026 cohort pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Data center spending continues climbing toward $400B+ in 2026 (counter-evidence) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cascade: US grid electricity demand growth slows materially due to AI efficiency cascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: Power-utility / nuclear PPA deal cancellation tied to a hyperscaler cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-14 — DOE Genesis or equivalent national-AI-for-science program operational pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Nobel Prize awarded to AI-led research workflow pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Time-to-discovery in major journal cohort drops measurably pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Salesforce, ServiceNow, or comparable platform vendor reports its agent platform replacing >=20% of customer support FTE cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenExO or major consultancy publishes case study of company achieving 50%+ headcount reduction via AI agents while sust cascade #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Salim Ismail or OpenExO publishes data showing average ExO-transformed company runs at 25% of pre-transformation headcou cascade #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — S&P 500 index aggregate revenue per employee rises >25% YoY cascade #5 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Cascade: Total US payroll employment declines >=2% YoY in any rolling 12-month window post-2027 cascade #6 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Cascade: Number of US firms with >$10M revenue and <50 employees grows 5x by 2030 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-16 — AI-driven structural disinflation observable in CPI/PPI data (sustained 5-12% logistics/manufacturing cost compression) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Electricity becomes binding constraint on AI / production cost stack (Morgan Stanley / Goldman flag) pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tech-giant capex tops $700B (2026 — marks compute deflation flywheel) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Specific consumer-good category shows AI-driven price compression to within ~2x of energy+materials cost cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Charles I. Jones-style endogenous-growth model with AI-driven cost-collapse cited by Fed / CBO cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-01 — California enforcement on driverless cars — net regulatory tightening on AVs pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — AV-only freight / delivery zones launched pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — First city pilot bans/restricts human driving in geofenced downtown core cascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Insurance pricing diverges — human drivers face material premium cascade #1 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US cascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 years cascade #3 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous software cascade #4 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15) cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Major regulator (FRA, EASA, or equivalent) issues hyperloop cargo-only safety framework pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First commercial hyperloop cargo route enters revenue service pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Passenger hyperloop testing milestone: full-scale human passengers in vacuum tube pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-31 — Cumulative hyperloop passenger-revenue trips through 2027 remain below 10,000 cascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — If passenger-revenue trips exceed cargo-revenue tonnage by window close, claim fails pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Klarna reverses AI layoffs, rebuilds human service capacity pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Gartner predicts 50% of AI-driven layoffs reverse by 2027 cascade #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — S&P 500 firm publicly confirms running with <=25% historical headcount cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Robotaxi $/mile drops below $2 in flagship metro pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Subscription mobility product launches (Uber One AV, Waymo Plus) pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Goldman / Morgan Stanley / RethinkX update peak-car forecast earlier pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First major US city sees measurable car-ownership decline (>5%) pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-15 — First major anti-AI protest in London draws hundreds at OpenAI/DeepMind/Meta HQ pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Stanford AI Index 2026: Only 38% of Americans positive on AI (record low) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-21 — 142+ activist groups in 24 states organize against AI infrastructure pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-15 — AI data center backlash turns violent — first documented act of sabotage pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Major G7 country enacts AI reform package (UBI, AI dividend, or compute tax) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — US new business formation (Census BFS) sustains >5M filings/year (4-5x baseline) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Ratio of AI-native unicorns to traditional unicorns flips ≥4:1 in single year cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — AI-private-company secondary valuations widen vs. revenue multiples pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — AI public-name short interest rises above 5% float on 3+ AI plays pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — AI unicorn down-round or failed raise reported pre #1 · pending · 2026-05-31 — AI sector ETF or basket underperforms SPY by >5% in single month cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-14 — First sustained AI valuation reset (>15% drawdown) on AI-software basket cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #4 · hit · 2025-12-01 — OpenAI Frontier Alliance launches with McKinsey/BCG/Accenture/Capgemini pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — McKinsey survey shows >20% of organizations have scaled AI agents cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Named F500 announces AI-native operating-model transformation cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — BCG reports >40% of companies successfully scaled AI to deliver business value cascade #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — F500 average AI-related headcount restructuring announced (cascade) cascade #5 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years cascade #6 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift 31 plotted · 7 outside x-range · click any dot for detail
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.