Timeline Fan

158 of 158 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior.

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CRWV 311 NBIS 311 IBM 157 ACN 156 AMZN 156 CORZ 156 DJT 156 GFUZ 156 GOOGL 156 META 156 MSFT 156 NVDA 156 ORCL 156 WNS 156

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Off (single timeline)$1T+ IPO AGI AI pause ASI Mars uncrewed Recession Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)

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Window

next 12 mo next 24 mo next 5 yr (default)5y + tail

Resolved

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Top predictors

All Alex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)

158 plotted · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior.

CRWV-impacting (4)

247_023

AAPL · ACN · ALAB · AMT

AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently

72% → 41% · resolves 2027-06

-31pp

242_023

AAPL · ACN · ALAB · AMT

World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036

60% → 34% · resolves 2036-12

-26pp

232_057

AAPL · ACN · ALAB · AMT

First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.

60% → 35% · resolves 2031-06

-25pp

248_033

AAPL · ACN · ALAB · AMT

Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.

60% → 37% · resolves 2028-09

-23pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)

AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum

Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.