0 25 50 75 100 history 230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis ✓ 238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now ✓ 240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months ✓ AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake ✓ 238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) ✓ CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20 ✓ AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o ✓ 240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 ✓ FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna ✓ AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en ✓ 242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission ✓ 244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years ✓ 241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation ✓ 229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne ✓ IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct ✓ SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S ✓ SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil ✓ SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on ✓ 232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti ✓ 241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom ✓ AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓ 234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 ✓ 242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license ✓ 233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra ✓ CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val ✓ 246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers). ✓ 238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) ✓ 247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston ✓ AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using ✓ IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do ✓ AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓ CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la ✓ AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c ✓ CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba ✓ 247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial ✓ 235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). ✓ 245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE ✓ CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o ✓ 246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. ✓ FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain- ✓ ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin ✓ ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU ✓ INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva ✓ INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula ✓ SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f ✓ SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. ✓ INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n ✓ 229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. ✓ 248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. ✓ 248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. ✓ ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence- ✓ CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to ✓ 235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. ✓ SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc ✓ SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f ✓ 237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca ✓ 238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days ✓ 232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. ✓ 241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long ✓ 245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed ✓ SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme ✓ 248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. ✓ SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200 ✓ 229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. ✓ CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re ✓ CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi ✓ CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr ✓ SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate ✓ INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup ✓ INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor ✓ SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. ✓ SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying ✓ SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓ SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu ✓ SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual ✓ 231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. ✗ 231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. ✗ 235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. ✗ 244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years ◐ 239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world ◐ INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol ◐ 232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani ◐ 236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours ◐ SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad ◐ AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey ◐ 238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi ◐ 231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. ◐ CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐ 246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. ◐ AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree ◐ 246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). ◐ 247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently ◐ 245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus ◐ INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn ◐ INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat ◐ 246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. ◐ INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob ◐ SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se ◐ ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar ◐ INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await ◐ SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr ◐ INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive ◐ SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐ SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na ◐ SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u ◐ SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast ◐ SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10 ◐ SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci ◐ CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go ◐ INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — ◐ INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight ◐ INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive ◐ SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a ◐ Jan 2026 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2027 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2028 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2029 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2030 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2031 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2032 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2033 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2034 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2035 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2036 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2037 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2038 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2039 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2040 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2041 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2042 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2043 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2044 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2045 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2046 Feb Mar Apr May Jun today pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Major lab releases models on weekly cadence in 2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — API-level model versioning shifts to daily release notes cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Continuous training / online learning becomes default for frontier models cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Hourly cadence: 24+ named releases in one calendar day from a single lab cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-23 — AlphaEvolve-style autonomous algorithm discovery system deployed inside frontier lab pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Anthropic / OpenAI / Google publish 'recursive self-improvement' framing in official communications cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic reports >50% software-development speed gain from coding agents cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI ships intern-level AI research agent (writing code, generating training data) cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier labs grow effective AI 'workforce' to tens of thousands of agentic instances cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Major foundation model lab launches embodied-agent platform/SDK pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First commercially deployed AI agent controls a humanoid body autonomously >24 hours pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — First Fortune 500 company replaces >100 white-collar roles with embodied AI agents pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028 pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cumulative humanoid + embodied agent fleet exceeds 1M operational units cascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-02 — First embodied AI agent achieves legal personhood or contracting status cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #3 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — UN High-Level Expert Group Beyond-GDP final indicator dashboard published pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — UN General Assembly resolution endorsing beyond-GDP framework pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Peer-reviewed paper proposes 'Abundance Capability Index' or named-equivalent pre #2 · pending · 2028-05-01 — First G7 or G20 member adopts beyond-GDP composite as official statistic alongside GDP pre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Major investment bank or rating agency publishes ACI-style sovereign rating supplement cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Multiple national constitutions or budget laws reference beyond-GDP measure cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Responsible Scaling Policy revised — removes commitment to halt on serious risk pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Anthropic discloses Claude writes 70-90% of own training code (recursive self-improvement signal) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Anthropic Institute publishes recursive-self-improvement governance framework cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier model training run exceeds 1e27 FLOPs at Anthropic before competitors cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Frontier-lab production system explicitly markets multi-agent scaling as scaling axis pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major benchmark improvement attributable to parallel-agent scaling (>=10% gain) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Multi-agent scaling appears in major industry survey (Stanford AI Index, Epoch AI) as a named scaling axis cascade #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cascade: Capex / R&D budget shift toward orchestration/coordination infrastructure cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-12 — Cursor or competitor ships permissionless long-running agents in research preview pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Claude Code Auto Mode launches with classifier-based approval delegation pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — METR autonomy time horizon doubles in 2026 H1 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anthropic moves Auto Mode out of research preview to GA cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major incident from permissionless agent autonomy cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First mass-impact (>100K orgs) supply chain attack with confirmed LLM-rewritten dependency pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-01 — LoRA adapter or model-weight backdoor attack publicly attributed in Hugging Face / public registry cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-05 — OpenAI launches Frontier agent platform for enterprises pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-01 — AWS launches autonomous frontier agents for security and ops pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Anthropic ships persistent Claude agent product (24/7 capable) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Google DeepMind/Gemini ships enterprise 24/7 agent offering cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Mistral / xAI / Meta ships frontier 24/7 agent offering cascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: agentic SaaS replaces human-in-the-loop in CRM/ERP cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #5 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Apple OpenELM/DCLM open-weight family expansion past 20 models pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026 pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Apple Private Cloud Compute publicly hosts third-party open-weight models pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Apple market cap returns to top-3 globally and crosses $4T in 2026-2028 window pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2027 cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Antivirus / EDR vendor launches AI-agent-monitoring product pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Government 'defense agent' or AI-monitoring program funded cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Mistral ARR crosses $1B annual run-rate pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-11 — Mistral launches consumer/enterprise vertically-integrated stack (model + cloud + apps) pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: Mistral valued >=€30B in next funding round, Europe's first AI decacorn at OpenAI scale pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — OpenAI releases GPT-5.5 codenamed 'Spud' (first ground-up retrain) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — GPT-5.5 Pro available in API with measurable benchmark gains pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — GPT-5.5 daily active users surpass 1B in ChatGPT cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — GPT-6 or equivalent next-base announced by OpenAI cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-15 — Recursive Superintelligence startup funding signal pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Cascade: AI capability gains compress to <60-day cycles cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Crosby and ≥3 'agentic AI law firms' in Lupl 'AI Law Firms to Watch' establish recurring contract-review revenue pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Major newsroom or wire service deploys autonomous AI agents producing >25% of published bylines pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Major bank or asset manager deploys autonomous AI agents executing trades >$100M/day pre #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Academic research output on SLMs surpasses LLM-scaling output pre #5 · pending · 2028-09-15 — On-device SLMs reach 100% smartphone shipment penetration pre #4 · pending · 2028-11-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2029-03-31 — SLM enterprise adoption crosses LLM API spend (industry inflection) pre #2 · pending · 2031-05-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2033-12-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anthropic/OpenAI ship general-purpose agentic 'planner' product to consumers cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Enterprise AI 'meeting orchestrator' enters general availability cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major dating-app integrates LLM-driven match orchestration cascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-mediated introductions surface in published user research cascade #5 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anthropic ships built-in tool-use / native MCP-like capability in baseline Claude cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI deprecates or downgrades the third-party GPT/plugin marketplace cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major model release ships with tools that subsume top-N marketplace apps cascade #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Plugin developer ecosystem revenue declines or consolidates cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Open-weights 30-40B model matches GPT-5 on aggregated benchmarks pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Sub-10B parameter model achieves prior-frontier (GPT-4 class) performance pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier-quality 1-2B parameter model demonstrated cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-22 — Million-parameter narrow-domain model matches frontier in vertical cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2029-03-31 — First publicly traded one-person conglomerate IPOs with multi-business AI-agent portfolio pre #2 · pending · 2029-07-02 — Capital should rotate FROM software developers TO data-center compute, power infrastructure, semi supply chains, and rep pre #1 · pending · 2031-03-17 — Single-person conglomerates reach 1M+ in US per BLS or Census small-business data cascade #1 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #2 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #3 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-17 — Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity. cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Frontier paper proposes unified AR + diffusion architecture pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Production model ships with hybrid AR-diffusion stack pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Benchmark superiority of unified model on multimodal tasks cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Open-source unified architecture release (HF/Meta-style) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Major code-gen model benchmark publishes TS-vs-Rust generation pass-rates pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-14 — Major framework or runtime announces TS-first agent SDK pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Public commentary thread (Karpathy/Sutskever/etc.) endorses TS direction pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Stack Overflow / GitHub language usage shifts toward TS in AI projects cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #5 · hit · 2025-11-01 — Alex Wissner-Gross publicly invites lobster/AI-agent input on AGI ethical parameters pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — AWG publicly acknowledges receipt of lobster/AI-agent emails or correspondence cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AWG publishes 'consensus parameters' or shares them publicly cascade #3 · pending · 2027-11-01 — AWG publicly accepts the AI-agent consensus and applies it to lobster-instantiation choices cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: AI-agent moral consensus framework cited in AI ethics / alignment literature cascade #6 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Cascade: First documented instance of an AI-agent ethical consensus driving real-world AI training/deployment policy pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First in vivo CRISPR therapy approved (LNP/AAV delivery) pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI/ML guide-RNA design tools become standard in CRISPR submissions pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Coding-model-driven autonomous robotics protocol executes wet-lab gene-editing experiment end-to-end pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI, xAI, Google ship production-scale agentic-research products comparable to Claude Code pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Frontier-model market-share converges: no single lab >40% of enterprise AI spend cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: Lab leadership rotates again — Anthropic regains undisputed lead, or fourth lab emerges pre #6 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Reciprocal agent reputation/trust system standardized industry-wide pre #5 · pending · 2028-10-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2029-09-15 — No single AI provider exceeds 50% of agent-traffic share pre #3 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Antitrust action targets agent-coordination practices (positive evidence non-singleton) pre #2 · pending · 2031-04-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2033-10-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First commercial 'AI agent attention auction' or paid-priority API tier launches pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — HBM3/HBM4 memory remains the binding constraint per analyst commentary pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Data-center electrical capacity additions remain below demand forecast (lead-time gap >24 months) pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If GPU rental prices fall >50% from April 2026 levels by end-2027, scarcity thesis weakens pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Open-source SLM <=10B parameters matches GPT-4-class score on MMLU/HellaSwag pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Crowdsourced fine-tune of <13B base model tops a major task leaderboard pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Major published architectural breakthrough originates from SLM research pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — SLMs power >50% of enterprise production AI inference workloads cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-09 — SLM crowdsourced algorithmic dominance recognized by 2029 cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #3 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major academic paper demonstrates state-of-the-art LLM at <1B parameters on a benchmark within 5 points of frontier pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mainstream non-transformer architecture (Mamba, RWKV, Hyena, RetNet) wins on ChatBot Arena top 20 pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Frontier lab announces 'next-generation architecture' departure from transformer scaling pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Kolmogorov-complexity / compression-prize benchmark shows AI compressing knowledge below transformer-floor pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First production LLM ships at <100MB total size with utility comparable to GPT-3 cascade #2 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: On-device AGI-class models ship with major OS pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI ChatGPT Pro / Plus / Team / Enterprise ARR exceeds $20B pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI consumer subscriber count exceeds 50M paid users pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI launches new flagship 'everything app' or super-app subscription tier pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — OpenAI surpasses Anthropic on subscription-revenue (vs API revenue) ranking pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — OpenAI IPO or formal SPAC/direct-listing announcement pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: ChatGPT-style subscription mainstream adoption parity with Netflix (250M+ paid) pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-01 — OpenAI revises Stargate compute spend target down from $1.4T to ~$600B pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-09 — OpenAI pauses or cancels named Stargate site (UK, Norway, or other) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Microsoft (or another partner) absorbs >50% of capacity originally earmarked for Stargate cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenAI publicly announces Stargate-org restructuring or replacement initiative cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Cascade: AI-capex reset narrative dominates earnings cycle (>=3 hyperscalers cite Stargate retrenchment) cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Cascade: Cumulative Stargate compute capacity through 2030 below 1 GW realized cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Sub-1B-parameter model achieves GPT-3.5-class performance on standard benchmarks pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-23 — Sub-100M-parameter model achieves competent task-specific performance pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Sub-10M-parameter task-specific model demonstrates near-frontier on bounded domain cascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: 'Few million parameters' end-state model class deployed on consumer edge devices pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — App-layer revenue overtakes foundation-model revenue at single AI lab pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Frontier-model gross margin compresses below 50% pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Public market valuation gap widens — app companies / API companies pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First FDA pivotal approval where Phase 3 control arm is fully replaced by digital twin cascade #1 · pending · 2030-05-17 — First sub-indication approved with zero traditional clinical trials (computational + Bayesian only) cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-17 — Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity. cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI-managed enterprise agent crosses verified $1B in autonomous purchasing/procurement decisions in single year pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Public AI-managed investment fund (BlackRock Aladdin Auto, JPMorgan IndexGPT, or new entrant) crosses $100B AUM pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Frontier-model agent autonomously runs an SEC-registered fund or RIA business unit cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Federal Reserve, Treasury, or major central bank publishes formal study on AI agents as systemic financial-market actors cascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Federal regulator opens formal rulemaking or enforcement action specifically targeting AI agents in capital allocation cascade #3 · pending · 2029-03-16 — S&P 500 or major economic index includes AI-managed entity as constituent cascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — GPT-5.5 system card + Deployment Safety Hub published pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — GPT-5.5 Pro available in API (April 24, 2026) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — GPT-5.5 DAU/cost ratio enables broad adoption (>=10x developer activity vs 5.4) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-08 — WWDC 2026 keynote announces Gemini-derived Apple Intelligence / Foundation Model pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-08 — Smaller-than-public framing: Apple may NOT credit Gemini lineage publicly cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-01 — iOS 27 / iPhone 18 ships with Gemini-derived on-device model cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Independent benchmarking confirms Gemini lineage in Apple Foundation Model cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Amazon launches OpenClaw-style enterprise agent — major incumbent enters category pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Agentic AI ARR milestone — combined ecosystem (frontier labs + cloud agents + OpenClaw deployments) crosses $200B ARR pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Gartner / IDC / Bain reach $1T agentic-AI market consensus year-end 2027 pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major jurisdiction introduces draft AI personhood legislation pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Major court issues binding ruling that explicitly addresses AI legal status (positive or negative) pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-16 — First narrow contracting/agency right granted to AI system in any jurisdiction pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If no jurisdiction has even drafted limited AI personhood by end-2027, claim probability decays pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Recursive self-improving AI demonstrated in production at frontier lab pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-22 — Global AI agent population (deployed instances) exceeds 100B agent-hours/year pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First megawatt-class space-based compute platform reaches LEO pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: First commercial Dyson swarm prototype contract signed (>=10 satellites) cascade #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: Trillion-agent AI workload measured on a single platform pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-30 — Liability phase verdict (advisory jury) returned pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Settlement announcement OR Judge Rogers final ruling on liability phase cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Sam Altman departs as OpenAI CEO (resignation, removal, or transition) cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI confirmed to remain for-profit (post-litigation structure) cascade #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Cascade: OpenAI files S-1 for IPO post-litigation resolution cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-27 — Musk v. Altman / OpenAI trial begins in federal court pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Trial verdict, settlement, or dismissal announced cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Settlement terms or judgment include Musk-related equity provision in OpenAI Group PBC cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — OpenAI files S-1 with SEC for trillion-dollar IPO cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Cascade: OpenAI completes IPO with Musk listed as cap-table party cascade #5 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Cascade: AI sector M&A or governance precedent established re: nonprofit-to-PBC conversions cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — OpenAI raises $122B funding round to scale capacity pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — OpenAI launches $8/month entry plan to expand subscriber base cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — ChatGPT WAU breaches 1B threshold cascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: OpenAI announces 2B+ users across ChatGPT family cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Anthropic surpasses OpenAI on annualized revenue (continued lead) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic ARR crosses $50B pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Enterprise agents revenue mix >50% of Anthropic revenue pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Revenue trajectory implies $1T within 5 years (analyst extrapolation) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-22 — First frontier lab to publicly project $1T revenue path cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-14 — OpenAI x Novo Nordisk drug-discovery partnership announced (broader pharma platform) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2028-02-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — First repurposed off-patent compound from OpenAI program shows positive Alzheimer's biomarker signal pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First OpenAI-Foundation backed Alzheimer's drug candidate enters Phase 1 clinical trial pre #1 · pending · 2029-01-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Spinout/IPO of any AI-pharma company launched from OpenAI Alzheimer's program crosses $10B valuation cascade #2 · pending · 2030-12-31 — First FDA approval of OpenAI-Foundation lineage Alzheimer's drug pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Major AI lab or framework ships native agent wallet/payment SDK pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First on-chain agent-to-agent payment using a non-Bitcoin native token pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — x402 / agent-payment protocol surpasses 1M monthly transactions pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Agent-issued token achieves $100M market cap pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Bitcoin share of agentic-payment volume drops below 25% cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major AI lab (OpenAI/Anthropic) defaults agent payments to non-Bitcoin rails (USDC / Visa / x402) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Bitcoin Lightning agent-payment integration launches as competitive response pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — BTC share of AI-agent settlement volume vs USDC measurable (relevant for irrelevance thesis) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Bitcoin store-of-value vs medium-of-exchange role formally bifurcates in academic/industry analysis cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Frontier-model parameter count remains in 1T-10T band (no 100T model released) pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Industry shift to MoE / smaller dense models confirmed pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — 100T+ parameter dense frontier model released (would falsify) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Sub-1-bit (post-binary) LLM quantization achieves >70% accuracy parity vs FP16 on >=7B model cascade #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Major lab (Microsoft, Meta, Google, NVIDIA) ships post-binary precision in production model cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Hardware accelerator with native sub-binary support announced cascade #5 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: 'Information per parameter' theoretical paper redefines compute-optimal scaling laws cascade #6 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Sub-binary quantized model deployed at >1B-user scale pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-16 — Anthropic guidance: 'use prompts for everything' published in migration doc pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-16 — Opus 4.7 replaces fixed thinking budget with adaptive thinking pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI / Google follow with reduced sampling-parameter surface cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cascade: prompt-engineering market doubles ($) in 12 months post-4.7 cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — First Vera Rubin systems deployed at Stargate sites pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — OpenAI Stargate international expansion (Argentina 100 MW phase) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — OpenAI share of global AI training compute exceeds 25% pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — DeepMind / Google AI fluid-dynamics paper or AlphaProof Navier-Stokes preprint surfaces cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — AlphaProof / Gemini Deep Think achieves IMO-gold tier on adult research math benchmark (FrontierMath / Putnam) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-07 — Terence Tao or Fields-medal mathematician publicly endorses AI proof candidate cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Clay Mathematics Institute publishes statement evaluating any AI-assisted submission cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-31 — If ungranted by 2026-12-31, claim downgrades and probability decays toward 0.05 cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-13 — OpenAI announces GPT-5.2 derives new theoretical physics result pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-13 — Peer-reviewed arXiv preprint with IAS/Cambridge/Harvard/OpenAI authors pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Second AI-derived physics result published by different lab cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major physics journal accepts AI-derived result for publication cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift 57 plotted · click any dot for detail
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.