Timeline Fan

138 of 138 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

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Click a symbol to scope to claims affecting that company

VERV 142 GOOGL 135 AMZN 106 MSFT 99 META 96 GTLB 90 IBM 82 UBER 71 ADUS 70 COUR 70 DOCN 70 GDDY 70 NFLX 70 RDDT 70

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Off (single timeline)$1T+ IPO AGI AI pause ASI Mars uncrewed Recession Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)

Tradeable only

Yes (≥1 ticker, default)No (all predictions)

Window

next 12 mo next 24 mo next 5 yr (default)5y + tail

Resolved

Hide (default — live forecasts only)Include Resolved only

Top predictors

All Alex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)

138 plotted · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to VERV.

VERV-impacting (4)

245_024

ABCL · ABSI · ABT · AZN

Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)

50% → 24% · resolves 2029-11

-26pp

239_001

ADUS · AI · AMZN · APO

Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years

60% → 38% · resolves 2036-12

-22pp

SEM_046

ADUS · AI · AMZN · APO

AI startups are scaling incredibly fast with significantly less capital — barrier to entry for complex software approaching zero.

75% → 53% · resolves 2028-12

-22pp

245_003

ABCL · ABSI · ABT · AMZN

Colossal's $10B valuation is massively undervalued

50% → 30% · resolves 2028-09

-20pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)

AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum

Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.