Timeline Fan

627 of 627 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Forked into 4 mutually-exclusive Compute scale branches — each lane shows the claims that hinge on that scenario.

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Top predictors
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)
050100S_COMPUTE_1GW_2027 · prior 60% · avg shift ±2.7pp · Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027050100S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028 · prior 40% · avg shift ±1.9pp · Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028050100S_COMPUTE_100GW_2030 · prior 20% · avg shift ±3.7pp · Compute: 100GW national-scale by Dec 2030050100S_COMPUTE_STARGATE_FAILURE · prior 15% · avg shift ±3.0pp · Stargate failure: <500MW by 2029history230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis✓238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now✓240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months✓AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake✓238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)✓CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20✓AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o✓240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027✓FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna✓AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en✓242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission✓244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years✓241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation✓229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne✓IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct✓SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S✓SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil✓SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on✓232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti✓241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom✓AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026✓242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license✓233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra✓CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val✓246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers).✓238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if)✓247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston✓AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using✓IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do✓AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la✓AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c✓CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba✓247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial✓235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).✓245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE✓CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o✓246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.✓FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-✓ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin✓ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU✓INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva✓INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula✓SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f✓SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.✓INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n✓229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.✓248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.✓248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.✓ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence-✓CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to✓235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.✓SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc✓SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f✓237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca✓238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days✓232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.✓241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long✓245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed✓SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme✓248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.✓SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200✓229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.✓CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re✓CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi✓CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr✓SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate✓INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup✓INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor✓SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.✓SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying✓SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu✓SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual✓231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.✗231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.✗235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.✗244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years◐239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world◐INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol◐232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani◐236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours◐SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad◐AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey◐238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi◐231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.◐CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.◐AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree◐246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).◐247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently◐245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus◐INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn◐INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat◐246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.◐INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob◐SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se◐ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar◐INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await◐SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr◐INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive◐SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na◐SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u◐SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast◐SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10◐SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci◐CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go◐INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 —◐INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight◐INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive◐SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a◐Jan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2027FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2028FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2029FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2030FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2031FebMarAprMayJuntodaypre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Stargate Phase 1 ($100B+ committed) campus reaches first GW of operational capacitypre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Schmidt-cited 29 GW of additional AI-focused data-center power online by 2027pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Goldman Sachs aggregate data-center power demand reaches 84 GW by 2027 (AI = 27%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Grid investment passes $720B cumulative spend ($240B/yr run rate)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-12-31 — Schmidt-cited additional 67 GW of AI power online cumulative 2027-2030cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Stargate Phase 1 ($100B+ committed) campus reaches first GW of operational capacitypre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Schmidt-cited 29 GW of additional AI-focused data-center power online by 2027pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Goldman Sachs aggregate data-center power demand reaches 84 GW by 2027 (AI = 27%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Grid investment passes $720B cumulative spend ($240B/yr run rate)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-12-31 — Schmidt-cited additional 67 GW of AI power online cumulative 2027-2030cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Stargate Phase 1 ($100B+ committed) campus reaches first GW of operational capacitypre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Schmidt-cited 29 GW of additional AI-focused data-center power online by 2027pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Goldman Sachs aggregate data-center power demand reaches 84 GW by 2027 (AI = 27%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Grid investment passes $720B cumulative spend ($240B/yr run rate)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-12-31 — Schmidt-cited additional 67 GW of AI power online cumulative 2027-2030cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Stargate Abilene flagship reaches ~1 GW operational capacity by mid-2026pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Hyperscaler announces single-site data center campus exceeding 5 GWpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-31 — First federal AI-grid coordination policy or grid-emergency order issuedpre #3 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — US AI data center power demand reaches ~30 GW incremental by end of 2027pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adcascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-26 — Aggregate US data center load passes 100 GW by 2029cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — xAI breaks ground on second 1.2 GW data center campus outside Memphiscascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-15 — xAI cumulative deployed AI compute capacity exceeds 5 GW across multiple sitescascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — xAI breaks ground on second 1.2 GW data center campus outside Memphiscascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-15 — xAI cumulative deployed AI compute capacity exceeds 5 GW across multiple sitescascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — xAI breaks ground on second 1.2 GW data center campus outside Memphiscascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-15 — xAI cumulative deployed AI compute capacity exceeds 5 GW across multiple sitescascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-24 — EIA confirms 86 GW US 2026 capacity additions plan with 51% solarpre #5 · hit · 2026-02-24 — Solar additions reach 43.4 GW utility-scale planned for 2026 (60% YoY increase)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-02-24 — Texas leads with 40% of new utility-scale solar (Tehuacana Creek 837 MW project)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Battery storage hits 24 GW added in 2026 (vs 15 GW in 2025)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-15 — Actual 2026 solar additions deliver vs 43.4 GW plan (slip risk: interconnection queue)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Modular 10MW DC product reaches commercial GA from at least one major vendorpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Donovan-affiliated entity publicly discloses pilot 10MW data center sitepre #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — BluSky AI or peer announces 1000+ small-town site pipelinepre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — First 100 distributed sites in operation across distributed-DC ecosystempre #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — 20,000-site target progress crosses 1% milestone (200 sites)cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Hyperscaler AI capex guide-down (>=10%) for 2027 due to efficiency gainspre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Distillation/quantization yield documented 10x+ further inference gains in 2026 cohortpre #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Data center spending continues climbing toward $400B+ in 2026 (counter-evidence)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cascade: US grid electricity demand growth slows materially due to AI efficiencycascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: Power-utility / nuclear PPA deal cancellation tied to a hyperscalercascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Morgan Stanley AI Power Supply Summit highlights off-grid trendpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Morgan Stanley revises shortfall to 72GW by 2030cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Texas, Virginia, or Oregon hyperscaler announces off-grid SMR or gas peaker pactcascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Actual 2028 grid shortfall confirmed at 13GW or worsecascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Morgan Stanley AI Power Supply Summit highlights off-grid trendpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Morgan Stanley revises shortfall to 72GW by 2030cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Texas, Virginia, or Oregon hyperscaler announces off-grid SMR or gas peaker pactcascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Actual 2028 grid shortfall confirmed at 13GW or worsecascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Morgan Stanley AI Power Supply Summit highlights off-grid trendpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Morgan Stanley revises shortfall to 72GW by 2030cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Texas, Virginia, or Oregon hyperscaler announces off-grid SMR or gas peaker pactcascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Actual 2028 grid shortfall confirmed at 13GW or worsecascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Hyperscaler 2026 capex hits $630Bpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Hyperscaler 2026 capex hits $630Bpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Hyperscaler 2026 capex hits $630Bpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — US data center power consumption surpasses 200 TWh in calendar yearpre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — US data center electricity share crosses 10% threshold (Schmidt's exact target)cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-04 — Ratepayer Protection Pledge signed by major data center developerspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Interconnection queue backlog persists despite federal actioncascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Data center capex grows >40% YoY in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-03-04 — Ratepayer Protection Pledge signed by major data center developerspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Interconnection queue backlog persists despite federal actioncascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Data center capex grows >40% YoY in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-09 — Bernstein / external analysts publish capex feasibility critique (~$5T to hit 1 TW)pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-23 — Tesla picks Intel 14A process for Austin Terafab pilot AI5 chippre #4 · pending · 2026-09-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Austin Terafab pilot fab achieves first wafer-out (small-batch AI5 production)pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Terafab reaches initial 100K wafer-starts/month capacity milestonepre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-09 — Bernstein / external analysts publish capex feasibility critique (~$5T to hit 1 TW)pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-23 — Tesla picks Intel 14A process for Austin Terafab pilot AI5 chippre #4 · pending · 2026-09-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Austin Terafab pilot fab achieves first wafer-out (small-batch AI5 production)pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Terafab reaches initial 100K wafer-starts/month capacity milestonepre #6 · pending · 2027-07-02 — $1.5T AI-financing gap drives credit-market issuance surgepre #5 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI early-adopter cash-flow margins ≥2x global averagepre #4 · pending · 2028-02-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-04-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Annual data-center capex crosses $900B by 2028pre #6 · pending · 2027-07-02 — $1.5T AI-financing gap drives credit-market issuance surgepre #5 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI early-adopter cash-flow margins ≥2x global averagepre #4 · pending · 2028-02-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-04-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Annual data-center capex crosses $900B by 2028pre #6 · overdue · 2024-09-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2025-06-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-01-31 — Hyperscaler 2026 capex consensus crosses $600B (above 0.5 OOM/yr trajectory)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-25 — Hyperscaler 2026 capex revised upward to $720-750Bpre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — First 1 GW single-cluster training facility operationalcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Aggregate FLOPS deployed crosses prior-year level by ~3xcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-01 — 2027 hyperscaler capex guidance >=$900B (extends 0.5 OOM/yr through 2027)pre #6 · overdue · 2024-09-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2025-06-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-01-31 — Hyperscaler 2026 capex consensus crosses $600B (above 0.5 OOM/yr trajectory)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-25 — Hyperscaler 2026 capex revised upward to $720-750Bpre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — First 1 GW single-cluster training facility operationalcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Aggregate FLOPS deployed crosses prior-year level by ~3xcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-01 — 2027 hyperscaler capex guidance >=$900B (extends 0.5 OOM/yr through 2027)pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — xAI Colossus crosses 555K GPUspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-08 — Microsoft contracts 30K Rubin GPUs at Norway data centerpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US government action: data-center grid build-out Defense Production Act invocationpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Hundreds-of-millions GPUs deployed across leading clusters by end-2027cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — TSMC Arizona phase 2 begins 3nm mass productionpre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — First Vera Rubin systems deployed at Stargate sitespre #5 · pending · 2027-02-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — OpenAI Stargate international expansion (Argentina 100 MW phase)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — OpenAI share of global AI training compute exceeds 25%pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — First Vera Rubin systems deployed at Stargate sitespre #5 · pending · 2027-02-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — OpenAI Stargate international expansion (Argentina 100 MW phase)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — OpenAI share of global AI training compute exceeds 25%pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Scenario fires: Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-05-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First documented data-center AI capacity curtailment due to grid power shortfallpre #6 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Scenario fires: Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-05-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First documented data-center AI capacity curtailment due to grid power shortfallpre #6 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Scenario fires: Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-05-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First documented data-center AI capacity curtailment due to grid power shortfallpre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — IEA annual outlook updates AI-DC share of global power growth ≥20%pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — US utility capex commitments cross $1.4T cumulative for AI grid buildpre #4 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Behind-the-meter natural gas + nuclear PPAs reach 50 GW signedpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — US DC power shortfall reaches 44 GW (worst case)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — 126 GW/yr DC demand growth realized 2026-2028 cumulativelypre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — IEA annual outlook updates AI-DC share of global power growth ≥20%pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — US utility capex commitments cross $1.4T cumulative for AI grid buildpre #4 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Behind-the-meter natural gas + nuclear PPAs reach 50 GW signedpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — US DC power shortfall reaches 44 GW (worst case)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — 126 GW/yr DC demand growth realized 2026-2028 cumulativelypre #5 · hit · 2024-09-03 — Morgan Stanley research publishes 2.5B tons CO2 cumulative emissions through 2030 thesispre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Hyperscaler 2026 sustainability reports show emissions trajectory off-targetpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major hyperscaler walks back 2030 net-zero pledge or extends timelinecascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Carbon removal market scales 5x to meet data-center decarbonization demandcascade #3 · pending · 2027-12-01 — Climate policy compliance gap formally documented in COP/IPCC outputscascade #4 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Annual data-center GHG emissions rise to ~600 Mt CO2-equiv by 2030 (3x 2024)pre #6 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #5 · pending · 2028-01-01 — US data-center electricity consumption crosses 250 TWh annual run ratepre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Cascade: 20% of planned DC projects publicly delayed citing transmission bottleneckpre #3 · pending · 2030-02-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2030-04-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2030-05-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #5 · pending · 2028-01-01 — US data-center electricity consumption crosses 250 TWh annual run ratepre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Cascade: 20% of planned DC projects publicly delayed citing transmission bottleneckpre #3 · pending · 2030-02-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2030-04-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2030-05-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Stargate reaches 10GW deployed capacity per OpenAI/NVIDIA letter of intentpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First single-site >=5GW data-center power purchase agreement signedpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Hyperscaler boardroom communication or analyst day cites $100B-tier single-cluster training capexpre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Aggregate hyperscaler+OpenAI announced capex for AI training reaches $1T cumulativepre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Scenario fires: Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Stargate reaches 10GW deployed capacity per OpenAI/NVIDIA letter of intentpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First single-site >=5GW data-center power purchase agreement signedpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Hyperscaler boardroom communication or analyst day cites $100B-tier single-cluster training capexpre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Aggregate hyperscaler+OpenAI announced capex for AI training reaches $1T cumulativepre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Scenario fires: Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Stargate reaches 10GW deployed capacity per OpenAI/NVIDIA letter of intentpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First single-site >=5GW data-center power purchase agreement signedpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Hyperscaler boardroom communication or analyst day cites $100B-tier single-cluster training capexpre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Aggregate hyperscaler+OpenAI announced capex for AI training reaches $1T cumulativepre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Scenario fires: Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-05-17 — GPT-5 / Claude Opus 5 release with claimed PhD-level reasoningcascade #2 · pending · 2026-05-17 — MMLU saturated (≥95%) by all frontier modelscascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — GPQA-Diamond benchmark crosses 90% by frontier modelcascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Aschenbrenner (or peer) publishes 'Situational Awareness II' or similar treatise marking AGI thresholdcascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · overdue · 2025-12-31 — Stargate full $500B / 10GW commitment secured by end-2025pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Abilene remaining 6 buildings completed by mid-2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First Vera Rubin chips deployed at Stargate sitepre #2 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Scenario fires: Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-21 — Reversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able to cryopreserve and revive.cascade #3 · pending · 2031-07-30 — In 5 years, 70-80% of cars will be autonomous, especially hooked up to your AI.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-06-23 — AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects.cascade #5 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · overdue · 2025-12-31 — Stargate full $500B / 10GW commitment secured by end-2025pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Abilene remaining 6 buildings completed by mid-2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First Vera Rubin chips deployed at Stargate sitepre #2 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Scenario fires: Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-21 — Reversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able to cryopreserve and revive.cascade #3 · pending · 2031-07-30 — In 5 years, 70-80% of cars will be autonomous, especially hooked up to your AI.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-06-23 — AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects.cascade #5 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cosmic-ray bit flip / fault-tolerance papers published from frontier training runspre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First training run on cluster of >=200k GPUs completes successfully without abortpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — xAI Mississippi 2GW $20B facility breaks ground / commissionspre #2 · pending · 2027-05-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Public reliability / MTBF metric framework adopted across hyperscalers for >100k-GPU runscascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift
46 plotted across 4 branches · 43 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to APLD.

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)
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Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.