0 25 50 75 100 history 230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis ✓ 238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now ✓ 240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months ✓ AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake ✓ 238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) ✓ CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20 ✓ AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o ✓ 240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 ✓ FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna ✓ AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en ✓ 242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission ✓ 244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years ✓ 241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation ✓ 229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne ✓ IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct ✓ SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S ✓ SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil ✓ SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on ✓ 232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti ✓ 241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom ✓ AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓ 234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 ✓ 242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license ✓ 233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra ✓ CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val ✓ 246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers). ✓ 238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) ✓ 247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston ✓ AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using ✓ IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do ✓ AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓ CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la ✓ AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c ✓ CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba ✓ 247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial ✓ 235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). ✓ 245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE ✓ CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o ✓ 246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. ✓ FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain- ✓ ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin ✓ ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU ✓ INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva ✓ INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula ✓ SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f ✓ SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. ✓ INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n ✓ 229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. ✓ 248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. ✓ 248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. ✓ ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence- ✓ CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to ✓ 235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. ✓ SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc ✓ SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f ✓ 237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca ✓ 238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days ✓ 232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. ✓ 241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long ✓ 245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed ✓ SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme ✓ 248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. ✓ SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200 ✓ 229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. ✓ CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re ✓ CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi ✓ CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr ✓ SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate ✓ INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup ✓ INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor ✓ SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. ✓ SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying ✓ SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓ SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu ✓ SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual ✓ 231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. ✗ 231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. ✗ 235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. ✗ 244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years ◐ 239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world ◐ INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol ◐ 232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani ◐ 236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours ◐ SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad ◐ AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey ◐ 238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi ◐ 231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. ◐ CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐ 246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. ◐ AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree ◐ 246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). ◐ 247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently ◐ 245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus ◐ INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn ◐ INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat ◐ 246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. ◐ INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob ◐ SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se ◐ ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar ◐ INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await ◐ SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr ◐ INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive ◐ SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐ SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na ◐ SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u ◐ SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast ◐ SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10 ◐ SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci ◐ CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go ◐ INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — ◐ INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight ◐ INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive ◐ SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a ◐ Jan 2026 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2027 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2028 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2029 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2030 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2031 Feb Mar Apr May Jun today pre #6 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Fortune-1000 firm publicly automates >= 50% of executive committee functions with AI pre #5 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First publicly disclosed Fortune-500 CEO (or interim CEO) replaced by AI agent system pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — BLS reports manual-labor occupations growing faster than knowledge-worker occupations in 2027-2028 pre #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Unskilled-labor humanoid-robot deployment in retail/hospitality remains <5% of US workforce pre #2 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Median CEO compensation in S&P 500 declines >= 20% from 2024 baseline pre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — First humanoid robot achieves >= 90% of human dexterity in unstructured manual tasks (independent benchmark) cascade #1 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Waymo targets 1M weekly paid robotaxi rides by end of 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First US state legislates phased restriction or dedicated lanes for human-driven vehicles pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Insurance industry launches preferred-rate tiering favoring autonomous over human driving pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-21 — Robotaxi service achieves cost parity with personal vehicle ownership in major US metros pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Cultural inflection: manual driving framed as risky/elite hobby in mainstream media coverage cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Tesla Optimus production crosses 10,000 cumulative units pre #5 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump ad pre #4 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines. pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Annual humanoid robot production (industry-wide) crosses 1 million units pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-16 — First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. pre #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028 cascade #1 · pending · 2030-09-15 — Tesla or Figure crosses 10M cumulative humanoid units cascade #2 · pending · 2034-07-11 — Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments cascade #3 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. cascade #4 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Prompt Engineer becomes formally tracked job category (135.8% YoY growth) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Context Engineer / RAG Engineer roles emerge as distinct from prompt engineer pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Chief AI Officer (CAIO/CAIRO) becomes standardized C-suite role at S&P 500 companies pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Data-rights brokerage emerges as formal commercial category pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — BLS adds new job classifications for AI-specific roles in O*NET database pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major US city sees youth-led AI/jobs protest >5,000 attendees pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Federal policy response: youth-targeted UBI pilot or jobs guarantee program launched pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Class of 2026 worst job market for new grads since pandemic onset (NACE survey) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Junior tech postings drop ≥50% from 2024 baseline pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Salesforce hiring 1,000 new graduates + Amazon 11,000 SWE interns 2026 — entrepreneurial/builder tier preserved pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Youth unemployment exceeds 10% (US 16-24) — ServiceNow CEO 30% warning materializes partway pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-05-01 — MoonAgents Card and a16z stablecoin-agent thesis publicly launch pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — BLS reports new business formation continues elevated through AI-tooling adoption window pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Stablecoin annual transaction volume exceeds $50 trillion pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BLS unemployment rate stays below 5.5% through entire window despite AI displacement narrative pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First publicly documented case of single-founder >$10M ARR business operated >50% by AI agents pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Tesla solar manufacturing capacity announcement substantiated with permits pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — SpaceX commits public solar manufacturing capacity beyond Starlink supply pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 pre #3 · pending · 2028-12-15 — Tesla US solar PV production reaches 10 GW/year run rate pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Scenario fires: Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028 pre #1 · pending · 2030-03-17 — Tesla and SpaceX reach combined 100 GW/year US solar manufacturing capacity cascade #1 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-19 — Progressive stock down 45% and Allstate down 50%+ from start of 2025 pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — US private auto insurance direct-written premiums decline YoY for first time since 2019 pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Major P&C insurer announces material auto-insurance business divestiture or runoff pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Robotaxis serve 1%+ of US passenger-miles pre #3 · pending · 2028-10-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Major analyst (McKinsey, RethinkX, ARK, BCG) revises baseline AV fleet forecast to 50M or fewer US vehicles pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — US passenger vehicle fleet declines for 2 consecutive years cascade #1 · pending · 2029-12-16 — US fleet drops to 20M or fewer passenger vehicles pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — BLS unemployment rate spikes >=1% YoY in white-collar BLS occupational categories pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Personal bankruptcy filings rise >=25% YoY (Yang's predicted second-order effect) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Cascade: First major US political party adopts UBI-like policy plank in 2028 cycle pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: Aggregate white-collar headcount in S&P 500 declines >=10% from 2025 peak cascade #1 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Census Bureau or Brookings 2026 report on rural-population growth from net-migration pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Starlink residential subscriber base crosses 10M pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla FSD V14 unsupervised certification in 5+ states / national rollout pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Office vacancy / urban CRE distress remains >20% in major US metros cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Confirmed reversal: rural growth + urban decline visible in 2027 census revisions cascade #2 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OASI trust fund exhaustion projection holds at FY2032 pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI displacement layoffs cross 100,000 cumulative since 2024 cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Brookings/IMF/McKinsey publish AI payroll-tax-base shrinkage estimate cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Federal robot/AI tax legislation introduced in Congress cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-30 — OASI trust fund exhaustion accelerated to <FY2030 in Trustees Report pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — 60% of hiring managers planning AI-driven layoffs in 2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — 30% of companies planning AI-driven layoffs (McKinsey state-of-AI) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: AI-attributed layoffs cross 200K in 2026 single year cascade #3 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-01 — 30-month sustained contraction in white-collar payrolls (continuation of 29-mo trend) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic Economic Index quarterly update shows entry-level white-collar exposure widening pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BLS unemployment rate for college grads age 22-25 crosses 6% pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Big-four consultancy or top law firm announces >25% reduction in entry-level hiring class pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — If thesis right: US headline unemployment crosses 7% during 2028-2030 cascade #1 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-20 — Meta cuts 10% of workforce (~8,000) starting May 20, 2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Big Freeze: 32%+ of companies plan AI-driven headcount reduction cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Total 2026 mass layoffs cross 1.5M with AI cited in >10% cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: white-collar U-3 unemployment crosses 4.5% by mid-2027 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — BLS occupational employment survey shows ≥3% drop in white-collar OES categories pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Unemployment rate rises ≥1.5pp from 4.1% baseline pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Major commercial real-estate vacancy spike (>25% Class-A office) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — 20-50% of 70M office workers displaced (resolution criterion) cascade #2 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Recent-graduate unemployment rises faster than overall workforce (2x) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Suburban high-end inventory rises >=20% YoY in NYC peninsula/CA Bay suburbs pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Westchester median home price declines >=5% YoY (Yang's thesis fires) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cascade: Mortgage Professional / NAR cite white-collar AI layoffs as primary driver of suburban downturn pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Tesla begins underwriting its own AV insurance policies pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major OEM publicly accepts AV product liability when autonomous mode engaged pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Dual-layer insurance structure becomes industry standard pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — OpenClaw or peer AI agent platform passes 10M paying users / 100M MAU pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI-assisted solo-founder / 'one-person unicorn' formation rate hits new high pre #1 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Small-business net-new hiring exceeds FANG layoffs YoY cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Net job creation > job destruction at AI-displacement-affected industries cascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Mainstream economic narrative shifts to 'AI as net job creator' (cascade) cascade #3 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate pre #6 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Bureau of Labor Statistics or Uber/Lyft reporting documents >=15% YoY decline in active rideshare drivers in robotaxi-sa pre #5 · pending · 2028-01-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Waymo + Tesla combined US AV fleet exceeds 25,000 vehicles (10x current Waymo) pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Major California / state-level legislation passes mandating retraining/transition fund for displaced rideshare drivers pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Uber CEO or earnings call discloses AV trips exceed 25% of total US ride volume pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — AI capex reaches 2% of US GDP (~$650B) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First major frontier-lab government coordination event (no firewall in policy) pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Universal income / wage-replacement pilot program launched in any G20 nation pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — BLS unemployment rate exceeds 6% with explicit AI attribution in commentary pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-03-12 — Major frontier-lab CEO publicly states 'capital may be mortal' or equivalent pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Major US wealth-tax / capital-redistribution proposal advances in Congress pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Billionaire / equity-holder loss event tied to AI labor pushback cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Anti-trust / structural-reform legislation targeting AI-monopolist concentration cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Capital share of GDP begins multi-quarter decline for first time since 1970s pre #5 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · hit · 2026-02-17 — Tesla reveals Optimus Gen 3 hand patents (50 actuators, 22 DoF/hand) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Tesla Optimus V3 official reveal event late July / early August 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Tesla Optimus V3 begins formal production at Fremont cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Optimus V3 Tesla AI5 chip integrated with Grok / xAI co-processing cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. cascade #5 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Tesla Optimus Gen 4 announced (2027 yearly cadence test) cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-22 — Tesla Q1 2026 update confirms 5.2M sq ft Optimus expansion at Giga Texas pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Geopier foundation work begins at Giga Texas Optimus site pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Low-volume Optimus output begins from Austin facility pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Major structural work completed by end of 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Tesla Optimus reaches 1M unit annualized run-rate pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla repurposes Fremont Model S/X line for Optimus production pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Optimus units perform measurable factory tasks at Tesla plants pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Tesla output per employee grows ≥30% YoY pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Tesla's labor productivity outpaces auto-industry peers by ≥2x cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-03 — Tesla Texas factory reduces headcount 22% in 2025 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Tesla cuts >14,000 roles globally in 2025 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Tesla Q2 2026 hiring announcement materializes cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla Optimus production drives >2,000 manufacturing hires cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cybercab/Robotaxi launch reduces ICE workforce further cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Intel 14A process selection finalized pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Tesla AI5 small-batch (engineering sample) production pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First Terafab module groundbreaking / construction start cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — AI5 volume production begins (initial 100k WSPM run-rate) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Path to 1M WSPM / 70% TSMC scale becomes credible (or slips publicly) pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-19 — Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Zoox launches robotaxis in Austin and Miami (own-app expansion) pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Zoox commences mapping / pre-deployment testing fleet in Los Angeles metro pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-16 — Zoox robotaxi service publicly launches in Los Angeles via Uber app (mid-2027) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector cascade #2 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time cascade #4 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. cascade #5 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Tech sector AI-attributed job losses cross 75K in H1 2025 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Klarna-style customer service AI replacement scales to 5+ Fortune 1000 companies cascade #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Junior developer hiring rate drops >25% YoY cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — BLS reports AI-attributed unemployment rate uptick cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal/state UBI or AI displacement tax legislation introduced pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — Customer service / call center employment down >15% YoY pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-12 — Cursor launches long-running agents in research preview pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Google Vertex AI ships long-running agents as named product cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Task duration doubling every 7 months continues cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Multi-hour autonomous research/engineering agents reach 8-hour workday capability cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Enterprise agentic deployment grows 8x from early 2025 to end-2026 cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Tesla Optimus mass production begins in Q3 2026 (>=1,000 units shipped) pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Humanoid robot autonomously completes high-skilled mechanical task (e.g., automotive engine assembly) pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-30 — First skilled-trade union acknowledges automation displacement risk in collective bargaining pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cognitive AI agents demonstrate >50% replacement rate for entry-level white-collar before humanoid does same for trades pre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — BLS or OECD employment statistics show high-skilled mechanical occupations resilient vs cognitive jobs pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Starcloud public update on multi-GW orbital DC roadmap pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Meta-Overview Energy 1 GW space-solar reservation milestone pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Academic / industry consensus that earth-bound GW AI factories scale through 2027 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Lunar mass-driver / SBSP feasibility study published pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Waymo crosses 200M autonomous miles with continued safety performance pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Waymo crash-rate metric crosses 95% reduction threshold (matching Blundin claim) pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — Federal/state insurance regulators codify AV safety as superior to human driver baseline pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-16 — ≥3 Fortune-100 firms cite AI as primary headcount driver in 10-K pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major employer publicly issues 'AI-only' job posting pre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — First U.S. labor-rights litigation over AI-only hiring practices pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mixed-fleet rideshare app standard becomes industry default pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-15 — AV market share remains <30% of rideshare miles in any major metro pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First non-rideshare hybrid AV deployment crosses 1M paid trips pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-23 — Uber confirms 20+ AV partnerships globally across freight, delivery, and robotaxis pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-26 — Uber/Pony.ai/Verne launch Europe's first commercial robotaxi service in Zagreb pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Uber expands autonomous services to Hong Kong, Houston, Madrid, Zurich cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Uber launches Tokyo robotaxi pilot with Nissan and Wayve cascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-22 — Uber discloses operating in 15+ cities with AV partners on Q4 2026 earnings cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Waymo reaches 1 million weekly rides target pre #5 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump ad pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Uber facilitates 1M+ autonomous rides per week globally (matches/passes Waymo) pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines. pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028 pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-01 — Uber autonomous ride volume exceeds Waymo direct-app rides in 2029 cascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time cascade #3 · pending · 2034-07-11 — Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments cascade #4 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. cascade #5 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-29 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Tesla Robotaxi fleet exceeds 1,000 cumulative vehicles pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Tesla Cybercab or successor begins production deliveries pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Uber explicitly opens platform to Tesla owner-operator robotaxis pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If FSD v15 not released and disengagement rate has not improved by end-2027, Uber partnership unrealistic pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — China multi-AV ecosystem: 4 robotaxi services compete in Beijing/Shanghai/Guangzhou pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Zoox launches commercial robotaxi on Uber app in Las Vegas pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Combined non-Waymo AV providers operate >5K commercial vehicles in US pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — At least 5 distinct AV providers achieve commercial revenue >$100M annually pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — First investor or analyst report values the autonomous mobility TAM at >=$1T pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Waymo plus Tesla combined commercial robotaxi presence in >=20 metro areas pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-30 — Combined US autonomous mobility commercial revenue exceeds $5B annualized pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Autonomous mobility marketplace recognized by mainstream press as multi-hundred-billion category pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Waymo crosses 1 million weekly autonomous rides milestone pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Waymo or Tesla operate driverless service in 20+ US metros pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — NHTSA publishes official AV crash-rate report showing safety advantage pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — US traffic fatality rate falls 10%+ from 2024 baseline pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-01 — NHTSA issues Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) update with explicit AV safety-case threshold pre #4 · pending · 2027-10-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Independent crash data shows AVs >=2x safer than human drivers on per-mile basis (peer-reviewed) pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-06 — Federal preemption framework replaces state-by-state AV patchwork cascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — First state mandates AV-only routes/lanes during peak hours based on safety case pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tesla launches consumer-vehicle Unsupervised FSD to retail customers pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — NHTSA closes FSD traffic-safety investigation without enforcement action pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Cybercab production exceeds 5,000 units per quarter pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-01 — Human safety drivers fully removed from Tesla FSD backup role across all commercial fleets pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First peer-reviewed AV safety study at 100M+ rider-only miles pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major insurance regulator approves AV-specific actuarial class pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — NHTSA publishes AV-fleet aggregate safety report endorsing safety-superiority claim pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First major auto insurer publishes AV-discount product pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Per-mile robotaxi fare drops below per-mile rideshare with human driver pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Industry-wide commercial auto liability premium index decline pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Tesla, Zoox, Uber-Lucid-Nuro all simultaneously operating commercial robotaxi (multi-stack proof) pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-15 — NHTSA finalizes federal AV regulatory framework allowing multi-vendor competition pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — 5+ AV stacks reach 100K+ rides/month independently pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — International AV operators (Wayve UK, Baidu, Pony, Toyota) confirm US market entry pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — AV fleets reach 10-20% of trips in operating cities pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Waymo fleet remains under 5K vehicles (vs ~250M US registered cars) pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Average vehicle age in US passenger fleet remains >12 years cascade #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Robotaxi share of US rideshare market reaches ~8% (Goldman target) pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Robotaxi cost-per-mile to consumer falls below $1.50 in any US market pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Driverless rides exceed 1% of total US rideshare market share pre #3 · pending · 2028-04-28 — Industry body or McKinsey publishes 'autonomous adoption curve >50% in developed markets by 2035' study pre #2 · pending · 2028-10-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Waymo or Tesla operates commercial robotaxi service in 4+ countries outside US cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-25 — Autonomous becomes very big part of developed markets pre #6 · pending · 2027-12-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Zero major Latin American or African capital city has commercial driverless service pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-12 — WEF or World Bank report flags AV-divide between developed and developing markets pre #3 · pending · 2028-02-29 — India publishes national autonomous-vehicle regulatory framework pre #2 · pending · 2028-10-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Uber's developing-market driverless ride share remains <2% by 2028 cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-24 — Developing-market autonomous penetration delay confirmed by 2029 pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Robotaxi fleets operate in 20+ markets across 10+ countries pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — US new-car sales decline 10%+ YoY in major metros with robotaxi service pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-14 — Survey shows >25% of urban US adults consider not owning a car due to robotaxi access pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla robotaxi undercuts Waymo fares by ~50% in head-to-head market (Dallas) pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — AAA / Edmunds publish 2026 cost-of-ownership analysis showing private car >$1.10/mi all-in pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Sixth-generation Waymo hardware deployment narrows cost gap pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Waymo reaches 1M weekly paid rides milestone pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — WeRide-Uber 1,200 robotaxi Middle East deployment substantially executed across Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Riyadh pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — WeRide-Uber expand from 3 of 15 contracted Middle East cities to >=8 cities pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — UAE/KSA robotaxi penetration on Uber app exceeds top US market share by AV-trip volume pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-31 — Joby completes Dubai vertiport at DXB airport (Q1 2026) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — GCAA or Abu Dhabi DoT issues operating authorization for eVTOL passenger service cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — First fare-paying eVTOL passenger flight in UAE cascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Uber-app-bookable eVTOL leg goes live in UAE cascade #4 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — FAA Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) compliance flight testing complete pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Joby receives FAA Type Certificate for S4 eVTOL pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Joby commercial passenger service begins in US (NYC or LAX route) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Cascade: Joby manufacturing capacity reaches 4 aircraft/month (2027 target) cascade #2 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Uber operates robotaxis in 15 US/global cities by end of 2026 pre #5 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Uber begins scaling global autonomous fleet toward 100,000 vehicles starting 2027 pre #4 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump ad pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Total active drivers on Uber platform globally exceeds 8M (vs ~7.4M in 2024) pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-17 — AV ride-hail surge demand creates 'driver multiplier' — net new gig roles grow despite AV penetration pre #1 · pending · 2030-10-01 — Hybrid human+AV operations dominant model: 80%+ Uber trips still human-driven by 2030 cascade #1 · pending · 2031-07-30 — In 5 years, 70-80% of cars will be autonomous, especially hooked up to your AI. cascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 years cascade #3 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous software cascade #4 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15) cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Uber-Zoox / Uber-Waymo robotaxi launch in 5+ new cities by year-end cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Driver-survey data (Edison/Pew/QuickTake) reports 20% intent-to-leave annual rate cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-23 — Uber Q2 2026 / Q3 2026 earnings disclose driver attrition or active-driver count cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS Rideshare-driver category data update through 2026 cascade #4 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Driver-headcount stabilization signal: Uber 2027 disclosed driver count flat or up despite robotaxi growth cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-18 — Tesla robotaxi unsupervised launch in Dallas/Houston (Apr 2026) pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First academic/industry study confirms autonomous fleets generating net-new ride demand (vs cannibalizing human drivers) pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Combined Waymo+Tesla US robotaxi fleet >10,000 active vehicles pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Uber/Lyft total US gross bookings >=10% above pre-AV-launch baseline trend pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-27 — Waymo aggregate weekly rides reach 500K by end of Q1 2026 pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Waymo expands Austin and Atlanta service zones in 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Austin/Atlanta Uber-Waymo partnership exceeds 25% of ride share cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — S&P Global confirms Sun Belt cities outpace national autonomous growth cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Waymo targets 1M weekly rides by end-2026 cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Robotaxi fares hit 60% discount vs human-driven equivalent rides in mature markets pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Robotaxi available in >=20 US metros with sustained pricing competition pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-23 — Personal car ownership rates begin measurable decline in robotaxi-saturated metros pre #1 · pending · 2028-11-07 — Average US ride-hail fare per mile crosses below $0.75 (sustained quarterly average) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #4 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Uber announces driver-to-fleet-manager onboarding pilot program pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First 1,000 driver-to-fleet-manager transitions documented pre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — AV financing product / loan vehicle available to former rideshare drivers cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Uber reports 10,000+ small-fleet-owner partners in AV economy cascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 years cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from now cascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous software cascade #5 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15) cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #5 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Uber-Nuro driverless Lucid robotaxi launches in SF Bay Area pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Waymo crosses 1M weekly paid robotaxi rides pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AV chip-supply bottleneck flagged by Uber/Waymo as scaling constraint pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Uber autonomous fleet target 100,000 vehicles announced for scale-up cascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Driver share of revenue compresses on US ride-hail platforms cascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 years cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from now cascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous software cascade #5 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15) cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Tesla Cybercab first production VIN rolls off line pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Tesla confirms Cybercab retail price under $30,000 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Waymo publishes per-vehicle build cost figure for Gen 5/6 robotaxi cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Waymo expands fleet beyond 1,500 vehicles or signs >2 city expansion deal cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Tesla launches Cybercab ride-hailing service in pilot city cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Joby Dubai vertiport at DXB completes construction and FAA/GCAA inspection pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — GCAA / UAE regulator issues commercial operating certificate to Joby cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First paid passenger flight on Joby Dubai network cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-16 — Average measured travel-time savings vs ground transport published cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Abu Dhabi-specific Joby agreement or first flight (note: Archer is current ADIO partner) cascade #4 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Robotaxis surpass 5% of US ride-hailing rides nationally pre #3 · pending · 2028-10-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Major US auto manufacturer reports YoY decline in private vehicle sales attributed to AV pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Mainstream news outlets characterize 'autonomous revolution' as larger societal shift than ride-hailing era pre #6 · pending · 2027-12-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-28 — First US state passes legislation reducing driver-license testing or relaxing requirements due to AV adoption pre #4 · pending · 2028-04-14 — Major US insurer launches 'driver-optional' or 'no-driver' policy product pre #3 · pending · 2028-10-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — US driver's license issuance rate to 16-19 year olds drops below 60% pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-30 — Driverless miles exceed 5% of total US light-vehicle miles traveled annually cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-27 — Cultural recognition of declining driver population pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Commercial passenger flights begin in Dubai pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Joby announces multi-vertiport network plan for NY/LA pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Vertiport handles ≥10K passengers / month at single site pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Waymo carries $5M primary liability + MedPay insurance layer pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-08 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First state codifies layered AV insurance structure into law pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Product liability becomes routine third layer in major AV insurance disputes pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — AV insurance market crosses $5B in annual premium volume pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-27 — Waymo provides 500K paid rides/week, on path to 1M/week by end-2026 pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Survey-based AV trust crosses 80% in major US robotaxi markets pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — Robotaxi rides surpass human-driven rideshare on at least one major Uber route/city pre #6 · hit · 2025-09-15 — Robotaxi cost projected 40% below Uber/Lyft by 2027 pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-23 — Uber Autonomous Solutions launches with cost-per-mile reduction stated objective pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First robotaxi market with average price <50% of human ride-hail equivalent pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-12-16 — Robotaxi market reaches $100B+ valuation by 2030 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Uber-Pony.ai commercial robotaxi service launches in a European city cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Khosrowshahi confirms Uber operating with Chinese AV partners in 10+ countries by year-end 2026 cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Uber-Baidu robotaxi launches in London or other non-China non-US market cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Uber-WeRide expands to 5+ Middle East/Europe cities beyond Saudi Arabia/Dubai cascade #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Uber discloses cumulative robotaxi rides via Chinese AV partners crossing 1M cascade #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: Uber files investor update splitting AV ride economics from human-driver baseline pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Waymo + Tesla combined US robotaxi fleet exceeds 5,000 vehicles by end of 2026 pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First state issues fully unsupervised AV operator permit covering 5+ metro areas pre #2 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump ad pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Annual US new-vehicle sales with full-self-driving hardware crosses 50% mark cascade #1 · pending · 2029-10-31 — Q4 2029 — driver's license still required in Ilia's home state cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous software cascade #5 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15) cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Waymo (GOOGL) crosses 250K weekly rides across all markets cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Pony.ai expands robotaxi fleet to 3,000 vehicles in 20+ cities cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — WeRide robotaxi fleet crosses 2,600 vehicles cascade #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Tesla Robotaxi national service launches in 5+ U.S. metros cascade #5 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First U.S. state files legislation reducing driver-license renewal cadence citing AVs cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Auto insurance industry reports first material premium decline due to AV displacement pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Computershare 2027 survey: equity-plan participation among employers exceeds 90% pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Federal or state legislation introduced for AI-dividend or worker-equity-share program pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major union (UAW, SAG-AFTRA, Teamsters) negotiates AI-equity clause in CBA pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Employee Ownership Fairness Act or successor legislation passes pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — ESOP participant count grows >10% above 2026 baseline of 15.1M pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If no federal legislation moves and ESOP growth flatlines through 2027, claim direction weakens pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Uber/Lucid commitment expanded to 35,000 robotaxi vehicles pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #1 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Robotaxi service in 10+ Uber cities by year-end 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: Uber's published EV-share metric exceeds 30% in top markets cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from now cascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous software cascade #6 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15) pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First successful CRISPR-engineered chytrid-resistant frog line published in peer-reviewed journal pre #5 · pending · 2028-01-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Colossal Foundation or partner publishes Bd-resistance gene multiplex editing protocol in great spotted tree frog or cor pre #3 · pending · 2028-11-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — First field release of gene-edited chytrid-resistant amphibian population approved by national wildlife regulator pre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — IUCN Red List downlists at least one chytrid-affected species citing genetic-rescue intervention pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-16 — Tesla $2B investment in xAI as Master Plan IV vehicle pre #5 · hit · 2026-01-29 — Bloomberg/Reuters reports Musk weighing SpaceX-Tesla-xAI mega-merger pre #4 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · hit · 2026-02-03 — SpaceX-xAI merger closed at $1.25T combined valuation pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · hit · 2026-05-01 — $573M+ web of related-party transactions disclosed in Tesla 10-K cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Tesla-SpaceX or Tesla-xAI formal merger agreement signed cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Tesla quarterly earnings demonstrate continued financial health (positive FCF, no covenant breaches) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Dan Ives or other major analyst publicly retracts the '80-90% chance SpaceX-Tesla merger by H1 2027' call pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — SpaceX post-IPO operating performance solid (Starlink revenue, Starship cadence) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — End of H1 2027 reached without a Definitive Merger Agreement filed with SEC pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — If merger occurs, accompanying disclosure cites distress or capital need (validating conditional) cascade #1 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · pending · 2029-04-10 — Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship pre #5 · pending · 2029-06-08 — Dyson swarm launchers will not be a SpaceX singleton; many orgs will launch their own. pre #4 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly. pre #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Tesla-SpaceX-xAI combined entity (or aggregate cap-table) reaches $10T pre #2 · pending · 2029-11-08 — Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of pre #1 · pending · 2030-03-12 — Tesla, SpaceX, or xAI individually crosses $5T market cap cascade #1 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First major liability case / regulatory action explicitly faulting human-authored code over AI alternative pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Code-vs-driver legal recognition timing test — code recognition arrives first pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — AV legal landmark — first jurisdiction making human driving a presumptive negligence baseline vs autonomy on equipped ro pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Austin and Atlanta autonomous markets growing faster than national average pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-08 — Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-09 — About 20% of drivers slough off Uber platform annually pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026 pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Tesla Robotaxi unsupervised commercial service in ≥3 metros pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First FAA Type Certificate for eVTOL (Joby or Archer) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-08-16 — Commercial eVTOL passenger service operating in LA by July 2028 cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous software cascade #5 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15) cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — AI-cited layoffs reach 100,000 cumulative through 2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-14 — BLS productivity data shows white-collar sector productivity surge cascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — WEF Future of Jobs report quantifies structural displacement cascade #3 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Solo entrepreneur with >=$10M ARR built primarily on AI tools (single-person AI conglomerate) pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Stripe Atlas / LLC formation data shows surge in single-member firms pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Anthropic Economic Index or McKinsey survey: net job creation among AI-adopting firms pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — BLS net employment change positive over 24-month window 2026-2028 pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Forbes/Fortune profile feature on solo AI-billionaires or near-billionaires pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BLS unemployment rate stays below 5.0% through 2028 pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — New job categories created: BLS adds >=2 new SOC codes for AI-era roles pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Goldman Sachs, McKinsey, or Anthropic publish revised displacement timeline through 2028 pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Job category extinction: BLS occupational data shows >=3 occupations decline >=20% pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Labor force participation rate stays within +/-1pp of 2025 baseline pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Junior software developer (0-3 yr exp) job postings on Indeed/LinkedIn rise YoY for 3 consecutive months cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS JOLTS Information sector job openings rebound above 2024 baseline cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Stack Overflow Developer Survey shows entry-level developer share stabilizing or rising cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Salesforce hires 1,000 new-grad software/AI engineers as Benioff committed cascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal Reserve or BLS publishes follow-on study reaffirming AI-not-driving-junior-dev decline cascade #6 · pending · 2028-10-31 — Cascade: CS undergrad enrollment growth resumes (>=2% YoY) after 2024-25 dip pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-22 — Tesla Q1 2026 earnings: Fremont line conversion confirmed for late July/Aug pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Optimus low-volume production starts at Fremont (summer 2026) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Optimus retail price publicly disclosed at $20-30K per unit cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — First Optimus retail customer / external sales contract announced cascade #4 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Cumulative external Optimus units sold >=100 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-30 — SWE-Bench Verified reaches ≥95% pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-02 — AI achieves Codeforces Grandmaster (2400+) or top-100 ICPC equivalent pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Frontier lab uses 'world-class programmer' framing in official communications pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-15 — AI solves research-level (PhD-difficulty) coding problem unaided cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Frontier model passes standardized senior+ engineering interview process cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Cascade: open-source model crosses world-class programmer threshold cascade #3 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Frontier lab announces general-knowledge-worker capability claim cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-30 — BLS shows multiple consecutive quarters of white-collar employment decline cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major consultancy reports AI-driven cost reduction in target functions cascade #4 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Cumulative knowledge-worker layoffs >250K in 18-month window cascade #5 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI deprecates SWE-Bench Verified as too contaminated pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · hit · 2026-05-01 — Claude Mythos Preview crosses 90% on SWE-Bench Verified cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Long-horizon multi-day software-engineering benchmark crossed by Claude/GPT cascade #3 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Iterative self-improvement loop demonstrated on coding agent cascade #4 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-01 — xAI-SpaceX-Tesla three-way combination publicly proposed by Musk or board pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — SpaceX completes traditional IPO without Tesla reverse merger structure (DISCONFIRMING signal) pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Wall Street analyst consensus shifts toward Tesla-SpaceX merger 2027 timeline (Teslarati-cited prediction validated) pre #2 · pending · 2028-05-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2029-01-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%) target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift 96 plotted · 5 outside x-range · click any dot for detail
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.