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181 of 181 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

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Top predictors
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)
0255075100history230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis✓238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now✓240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months✓AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake✓238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)✓CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20✓AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o✓240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027✓FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna✓AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en✓242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission✓244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years✓241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation✓229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne✓IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct✓SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S✓SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil✓SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on✓232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti✓241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom✓AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026✓242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license✓233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra✓CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val✓246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers).✓238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if)✓247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston✓AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using✓IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do✓AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la✓AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c✓CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba✓247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial✓235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).✓245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE✓CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o✓246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.✓FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-✓ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin✓ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU✓INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva✓INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula✓SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f✓SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.✓INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n✓229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.✓248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.✓248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.✓ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence-✓CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to✓235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.✓SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc✓SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f✓237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca✓238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days✓232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.✓241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long✓245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed✓SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme✓248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.✓SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200✓229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.✓CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re✓CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi✓CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr✓SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate✓INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup✓INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor✓SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.✓SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying✓SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu✓SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual✓231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.✗231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.✗235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.✗244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years◐239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world◐INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol◐232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani◐236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours◐SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad◐AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey◐238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi◐231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.◐CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.◐AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree◐246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).◐247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently◐245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus◐INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn◐INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat◐246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.◐INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob◐SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se◐ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar◐INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await◐SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr◐INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive◐SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na◐SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u◐SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast◐SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10◐SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci◐CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go◐INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 —◐INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight◐INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive◐SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a◐Jan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2027FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2028FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2029FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2030FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2031FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2032FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2033FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2034FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2035FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2036FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2037FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2038FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2039FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2040FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2041FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2042FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2043FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2044FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2045FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2046FebMarAprMayJuntodaypre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-17 — Figure publicly demonstrates a robot performing assembly task on BotQ linepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Figure announces new funding round or BotQ-specific partnerpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — First Figure robot officially deployed at BotQ in production rolecascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — BotQ cumulative production count disclosed (≥100 units)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Customer deployment count increases post-BotQ rampcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timepre #6 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Figure announces second major US enterprise customerpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour ratepre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Figure 03 commercial deployment with BMW Spartanburg confirmedcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Figure 03 unit shipments exceed 1,000 units across customers in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Figure achieves 30-min production cadence in Baku facilitycascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorpre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — First sub-scale humanoid maker shuts down or absorbs into larger playerpre #5 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Top 3 humanoid players capture >70% of commercial deployment volumepre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Chinese humanoid players (Unitree, UBTech, Xiaomi) carve geographic moatpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Industry settles to <=6 global players by 2028 endpre #4 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #5 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Humanoid robot deployed in another humanoid's manufacturing line (robots-build-robots first instance)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-03 — Humanoid manufacturing line where >=20% of assembly steps are performed by other humanoidscascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: First fully-autonomous humanoid-built humanoid (recursive manufacturing)cascade #2 · pending · 2029-07-30 — By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the worldcascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028pre #5 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Goldman Sachs base-case humanoid shipments cross 250K units globally (2030)pre #4 · pending · 2033-12-31 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033pre #3 · pending · 2035-07-02 — Global humanoid shipments reach 1.4M/yr (Goldman base 2035 forecast)pre #2 · pending · 2035-07-02 — Humanoid installed base reaches 100M units (one per 80 humans)pre #1 · pending · 2037-12-01 — Humanoid installed base reaches 10B+ units — Adcock's full prediction (one-per-human plus 5-10B commercial)cascade #1 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Google DeepMind ships robotic foundation model with major-OEM partnershippre #5 · pending · 2026-10-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Apple humanoid/tabletop robot product launch announcedpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Microsoft formally enters humanoid robotics (acquisition or platform)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-01 — ≥5 Mag-7 companies have material humanoid exposure by end-2027pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Figure cumulative production crosses 1,000 robotspre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BotQ first-gen line annualized capacity reaches 12,000 robots/yearpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Baku BotQ-2 facility broken ground / construction announcedpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-01 — Cumulative Figure production reaches 100,000 over 4-year horizoncascade #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Millions of robots NOT achieved by 2028-11-30pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Figure BotQ scales to ~12,000 robots/year capacitypre #5 · pending · 2027-02-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Figure shifts from 'thousands' to 'tens of thousands' annual productionpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First commercial customer reaches 1,000-unit deploymentpre #2 · pending · 2027-07-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Figure announces second BotQ-style facility / 100K-unit scale-upcascade #1 · pending · 2028-05-31 — Figure reaches 'hundreds of thousands' annual run ratepre #6 · pending · 2027-02-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Tesla Optimus reaches sub-$30K production cost (mass scale)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-08-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Total humanoid units shipped globally crosses 100K cumulativecascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Humanoid robot priced at $10K (low end of prediction range)pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BMW / Mercedes / Hyundai / Amazon publicly confirm humanoid replacement of legacy non-humanoid robots in productionpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Mining / construction / agriculture continue specialized non-humanoid robotics scale-up (counter-evidence)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Figure BotQ ramp + Optimus + Unitree combined annual humanoid output exceeds 200K unitspre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Form-factor consensus narrative shift: Wall Street / IFR / McKinsey adopt 'humanoid-first' defaultcascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Humanoid robots become >50% of total annual industrial-robot shipment growthpre #6 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Figure 03 alpha-home pilot announcement (named customer or geographic pilot)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Figure 03 production rate at 1/hour or highercascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Figure publishes Helix unseen-environment benchmark (zero-shot home tasks)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Second customer for Figure beyond BMW (commercial or consumer)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Human intervention rate disclosed at <=1 per day on home taskscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Figure BotQ production line ramps to 12,000 units/year capacitypre #2 · pending · 2026-10-30 — First Figure 03 unit ships to non-employee paying alpha customer (home)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Figure publishes home-deployment intervention rate / autonomy benchmarkcascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: Figure achieves >=100 home alpha deployments by EOY 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #3 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Helix v3 long-horizon planning model deployed enabling multi-step home task executionpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-01 — BotQ commercial-scale manufacturing facility supports alpha unit productionpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Figure begins alpha home test program — robot enters Adcock's residence for end-to-end household workcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Figure publishes early intervention metrics from home alpha (interventions per hour or per task)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Second major industrial customer beyond BMW deploys Figure 03pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Figure announces consumer/home alpha pilot programpre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Figure 03 reaches BotQ 12K/year throughput milestonepre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Figure demonstrates unsupervised multi-day in-home autonomypre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First paying retail customer takes delivery of Figure robot in private homecascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #3 · pending · 2034-07-11 — Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environmentscascade #4 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #5 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · hit · 2026-01-09 — Agibot captured 39% of global humanoid market in 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Unitree ships >5,500 humanoids vs Figure ~150 in 2025pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — US humanoid OEM crosses 1,000 unit annual productioncascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Western humanoid maker raises $1B+ at $20B+ valuationcascade #3 · hit · 2026-04-09 — Chinese humanoid output projected to surge 94% in 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal trade restrictions on Chinese humanoid importscascade #5 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #6 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First humanoid-robot deployment with active human co-working (no isolation barrier)pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — ISO/IEC publishes humanoid-specific safety standard (analogous to ISO 13482 for service robots)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First independent dataset shows humanoid-robot injury rate <=10% of human-equivalent task injury ratepre #2 · pending · 2028-06-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-11 — Insurance industry creates dedicated workers-comp/liability product class for humanoid-robot deployerspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostonpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Figure publicly cites order book or wait-list metriccascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Figure or peer humanoid private-round implies $50B+ valuationcascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production start as parallel demand validationcascade #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Industry-wide humanoid order book exceeds 100,000 units cumulativelycascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First public-market humanoid IPO or direct listingcascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Global humanoid demand reaches 30,000 units in 2026pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Tesla Optimus external customer shipments beginpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Foundation deploys 10,000 humanoids in 2026, 50,000 by end-2027pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cumulative humanoid robots deployed in SF Bay Area exceeds 5,000cascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — More-humanoids-than-humans density NOT achieved in any SF block by 2028-11-30pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-31 — Figure Grid facility opens with 24/7 operationspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour ratepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Figure production triples from March to May 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-19 — Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs downcascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Figure achieves 30-min production cadence in Bakucascade #4 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Cumulative Figure 03 deployment crosses 1000 unitscascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostoncascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timepre #6 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Figure or competitor announces NASA / DoD humanoid space partnershippre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First space-DC announcement (Lonestar, Axiom, Starcloud) cites humanoid assemblypre #2 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — First humanoid microgravity demo (parabolic flight or ISS)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Cislunar / lunar surface humanoid deployment commitmentpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — US or EU public funding package for Greenland critical-minerals infrastructurepre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Critical Metals or KoBold opens Greenland pilot processing plantpre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — First commercial humanoid robot deployed in Arctic mining or harsh-environment field testpre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Humanoid robot unit cost <$30K plus reliability validated in industrial settingpre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — First commercial Greenland rare earth or graphite shipment to non-Chinese refinercascade #1 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Asteroid mining commercial commodity return predates Greenland operational minecascade #2 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #3 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · pending · 2027-02-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First humanoid OEM ships robot with thermal/IR sensor modulepre #4 · pending · 2027-12-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Figure or Tesla announces multi-spectral perception SDK / customer featurepre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First commercial humanoid deployment in domain requiring beyond-visible perceptionpre #1 · pending · 2028-09-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Helix 02 (or successor) demonstrates room-scale autonomy on novel tasks not in training distributionpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Industry-wide acceptance of VLA (Vision-Language-Action) models as standard humanoid stackpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Cross-domain transfer: warehouse Helix model generalizes to home tasks (or vice versa)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-01 — Robot foundation model hits 100M+ data hours — scaling-law inflectionpre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Figure home pilot — long-horizon tasks in unseen homespre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Figure deploys F.03 in non-automotive vertical (logistics, retail, home)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Vertical/form-factor humanoid wins >=20% of new automotive orderspre #2 · pending · 2027-10-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Robot-built-robot demonstration at BotQpre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Helix or successor whole-body control model publicly benchmarks task-completion time vs. 2026pre #5 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Figure or peer reports field humanoids running at >=3x current observed speed in customer sitepre #4 · pending · 2028-03-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — BotQ factory throughput hits one Figure unit per minute or fasterpre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Industry benchmark (e.g. RoboHIVE, BEHAVIOR) records 5x speedup on humanoid manipulation taskspre #1 · pending · 2029-03-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #5 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Goldman Sachs forecast: robotaxis capture 8% of US rideshare market by 2030 ($7B annual revenue)pre #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — IEA forecast: automated ride-hailing fleets reach 4M+ AVs and 15% of global urban passenger milespre #3 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in USpre #2 · pending · 2030-11-30 — Scenario fires: Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030pre #1 · pending · 2031-07-02 — Personal-vehicle AV penetration: 70-80% of new cars sold ship with full autonomous software stackcascade #1 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from nowcascade #3 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #4 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Tesla Optimus production crosses 10,000 cumulative unitspre #5 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #4 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines.pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Annual humanoid robot production (industry-wide) crosses 1 million unitspre #2 · pending · 2028-11-16 — First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe.pre #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028cascade #1 · pending · 2030-09-15 — Tesla or Figure crosses 10M cumulative humanoid unitscascade #2 · pending · 2034-07-11 — Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environmentscascade #3 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #4 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Hyperscaler combined 2026 capex reaches $725B (77% YoY increase)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Amazon expects negative free cash flow ~$17B in 2026 from AI capexpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-08 — Hyperscaler 2027 capex guidance maintains >=20% YoY growthpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First public hyperscaler reports negative cumulative FCF for trailing 24 monthspre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — AI data center capex sustains >=$800B aggregate by FY2028cascade #1 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #2 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Wissner-Gross publishes detailed lunar fab thesis or PSI (Physical Superintelligence) corporate roadmap mentioning lunarpre #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First commercial lunar landing payload includes manufacturing or industrial-process experimentpre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First commercial space-manufacturing/fab feasibility study by major semiconductor or aerospace playerpre #3 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Lunar regolith ISRU (in-situ resource utilization) demonstrator processes silicon-bearing regolithpre #2 · pending · 2030-12-31 — Nuclear-powered lunar-surface power plant commissioning (10kW+ scale)pre #1 · pending · 2032-09-30 — Cascade: First commercial lunar fab pilot announces operational target date with venture funding >$500Mpre #6 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Tesla solar manufacturing capacity announcement substantiated with permitspre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — SpaceX commits public solar manufacturing capacity beyond Starlink supplypre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #3 · pending · 2028-12-15 — Tesla US solar PV production reaches 10 GW/year run ratepre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Scenario fires: Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028pre #1 · pending · 2030-03-17 — Tesla and SpaceX reach combined 100 GW/year US solar manufacturing capacitycascade #1 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Waymo expands to Philadelphia + 5 additional metros, fleet >5000 robotaxispre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Frontline rideshare driver job count contracts ≥30% in robotaxi-enabled metros (cumulative 2026-2028)cascade #1 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #2 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · pending · 2028-02-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2028-05-01 — First trillion-dollar IPO closes at >$1T fully dilutedpre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First public company breaches $20T market cappre #3 · pending · 2028-12-15 — S&P 500 total market cap doubles from 2026 baselinepre #2 · pending · 2029-02-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — First public firm crosses $50T market cappre #6 · pending · 2026-11-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Pure-play AI vendor (Cohere/Mistral/Perplexity) revenue stays <$35B aggregate 2026pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Enterprise AI revenue exceeds consumer AI revenue 3:1 across hyperscalerspre #3 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI capex-to-revenue ratio compresses or hyperscaler stock multiple resetspre #1 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2024-12-31 — Humanoid robot market sized at $1.55B in 2024 (Grand View Research baseline)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-10-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Tesla / Figure / 1X cumulative humanoid units exceed 1 millioncascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Humanoid plus automation TAM revised to $1T+ by major analystcascade #2 · pending · 2029-12-16 — Humanoid plus automation market hits $50T (Musk's claim)cascade #3 · pending · 2030-03-17 — Humanoid plus general automation market reaches $15B (MarketsandMarkets 2030 forecast)pre #6 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.pre #5 · pending · 2030-08-29 — With humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europeans at Davos say it's impossible.pre #4 · pending · 2036-01-01 — Cumulative humanoid robot fleet crosses 10M units globally (Goldman blue-sky path)pre #3 · pending · 2038-07-02 — Demonstration of 1,000+ humanoid robot construction crew building first major structure (skyscraper, factory, dam)pre #2 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.pre #1 · pending · 2043-11-16 — Cumulative humanoid robot fleet reaches 10B (Holz's 2045 number)pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Census Bureau or Brookings 2026 report on rural-population growth from net-migrationpre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Starlink residential subscriber base crosses 10Mpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla FSD V14 unsupervised certification in 5+ states / national rolloutpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Office vacancy / urban CRE distress remains >20% in major US metroscascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Confirmed reversal: rural growth + urban decline visible in 2027 census revisionscascade #2 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Tesla Optimus or competitor humanoid robot demonstrated performing autonomous construction-like task on simulated lunar/pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — NASA, ESA, or commercial partner announces formal contract for humanoid-robot lunar surface construction servicescascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — SpaceX Starship cargo mission to Mars launch attempt with humanoid robots aboardcascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — SpaceX uncrewed Lunar Starship lands successfully near Shackleton Cratercascade #3 · pending · 2032-07-01 — First habitable structure (>1 person, >7 days endurance) erected on lunar surfacepre #6 · pending · 2027-06-30 — First company crosses $10T market cappre #5 · pending · 2027-12-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2027pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Top company net income annualized run rate crosses $300Bpre #2 · pending · 2028-03-31 — First non-US sovereign or private firm mentioned in $10T speculationpre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — $100T market cap threshold first appears in consensus analyst notecascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — First company crosses $20T market cappre #6 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Major chain (≥3 of top-10) deploys robotic kitchen automation productionpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-19 — Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-16 — First chain announces humanoid robots replacing crew positions in US storepre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Fast food labor headcount declines ≥3% YoY in BLS data citing automationcascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-19 — Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #3 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Figure ships first humanoid robots into consumer/home iterationpre #3 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First QSR chain announces multi-store humanoid VLA deployment with operational task scopepre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — VLA model class achieves >90% task success rate on standardized restaurant task benchmarkpre #1 · pending · 2029-02-14 — First QSR labor displacement disclosure (>500 jobs) attributed to humanoid automationcascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #3 · pending · 2034-07-11 — Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environmentscascade #4 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #5 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Diamandis Abundance360 Longevity Trip 2026 confirms market thesispre #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Major pharma cap-ex reallocation toward longevity / aging programspre #4 · pending · 2028-09-30 — First aging-as-disease ICD-11 code adoption by major payorpre #3 · pending · 2030-02-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2030-03-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2030-04-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-31 — First Optimus or competing humanoid demos surgical-precision manipulation in lab setting (peer-reviewed or vendor demo)pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines.pre #2 · pending · 2029-12-31 — First FDA pre-submission or 510(k) filing for humanoid surgical robotpre #1 · pending · 2031-09-16 — First successful surgery performed by autonomous humanoid robot on a human patient under IDEcascade #1 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #2 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Musk publicly affirms $100T SpaceX possibilitypre #5 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — First trillionaire — Musk net worth crosses $1Tpre #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Multi-trillionaire (>=2 individuals at $1T) — cascadecascade #2 · pending · 2035-07-02 — First $100T market cap company — full prediction realizationpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — RobotLAB / industry consensus: commercial robot plumber 'by end of decade'pre #5 · pending · 2026-05-02 — 1X Neo housekeeper at $20K reaches consumer marketpre #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Humanoid dexterous-manipulation benchmark fails plumbing taskspre #2 · pending · 2027-12-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-01 — First commercially viable humanoid trades robot reaches marketcascade #2 · pending · 2030-08-16 — BLS HVAC employment grows 8% (2024-2034) per official projectionpre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.pre #4 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines.pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First commercial pilot of humanoid robot in skilled trades (plumbing, electrical, HVAC) outside factorypre #2 · pending · 2030-03-17 — First million-unit fleet of humanoid robots deployed commercially across factory + commercial tradespre #1 · pending · 2031-09-08 — Humanoid robots cross 10% market share of US skilled trades labor (~2032 Elon's 3-8yr timeframe)cascade #1 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #2 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major data-center operator (Equinix, Digital Realty, AWS, Microsoft, Google) announces robotics-assisted construction pipre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Boston Dynamics, Figure, Agility, or Apptronik secures multi-million-dollar data-center construction contractpre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Hyperscaler (AWS, Microsoft, Google, Meta) discloses humanoid-robot deployment in earnings call or sustainability reportpre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Public video / press tour shows >2 humanoid robots performing distinct construction tasks at one data-center sitepre #2 · pending · 2027-08-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Construction industry analyst report quantifies labor-substitution by humanoid robots in tier-1 verticalscascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: Robotics-built data center reaches commissioningpre #6 · hit · 2026-03-09 — AI capex contributes 30 percent or more of US 2026 GDP growthpre #5 · pending · 2027-04-30 — S&P 500 AI-exposed stocks outperform broad index by 30 percent or more over 24 monthspre #4 · pending · 2027-06-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Goldman Sachs confirms AI productivity uplift inflection in 2027pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cumulative GenAI value creation reaches McKinsey 2.6T-4.4T USD annual rangepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Tesla begins underwriting its own AV insurance policiespre #5 · pending · 2026-10-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major OEM publicly accepts AV product liability when autonomous mode engagedpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Dual-layer insurance structure becomes industry standardpre #6 · pending · 2026-10-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AlphaFold/Isomorphic-style AI lab partnership produces clinical Phase-I trial drugpre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-discovered superconductor material independently verifiedpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier lab discloses >=$10B revenue from a non-chat product (drug discovery / materials / robotics)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI fusion-control breakthrough: ITER-class plasma stability gain attributed to RLpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostonpre #1 · pending · 2026-05-17 — 1X opens U.S. (Hayward CA) factory to support NEO production at 10K/yr capacitycascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Bernt Bornich (1X CEO) publicly confirms shipment to Peter Diamandis specificallycascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — 1X NEO begins consumer home shipments in 2026 (Early Access)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-22 — Diamandis shares first home-use video/post of 1X NEO at his residencecascade #4 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Total cumulative NEO consumer deliveries reach 1,000+ units globally in 2026cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Figure achieves total China supply-chain decoupling milestonepre #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Figure announces Abundance Summit 2027 attendance / speaker slotpre #1 · pending · 2027-06-15 — Figure 03 robot demonstrated to Peter Diamandis on stage at Abundance Summit 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Figure 03 unit confirmed delivered to Diamandis personallycascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Cascade: Figure annual production reaches 12K unit run-rate (initial line cap)cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #4 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #6 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier AI exceeds aggregate human performance on broad benchmark suitepre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-driven compute consumption reaches >1% of global electricitypre #2 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Independent forecaster declares humans 'minority of intelligence' framing acceptedpre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-14 — Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s.pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Optimus V3 prototype publicly revealed by Teslapre #4 · pending · 2026-06-19 — Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs downpre #3 · pending · 2026-06-21 — Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term.pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-23 — If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists).pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Musk delays or pushes back production timeline (risk milestone)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Tesla AI5 chip (with ~5x memory bandwidth vs Gen 2) integrated into Optimus 3cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Optimus 3 production line begins low-rate manufacturing at Fremont factorycascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Initial 2026 production volume reaches several hundred units (S-curve start)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorpre #6 · pending · 2026-10-01 — 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Giga Texas dedicated Optimus factory groundbreaking confirmedpre #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Cumulative Optimus production reaches several hundred units (2026 YE)pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-16 — High-volume production milestone (1K+ units/month run rate)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Cascade: external customer commercial deliveries begin (non-Tesla deployment)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #3 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #5 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-02-17 — Tesla reveals Optimus Gen 3 hand patents (50 actuators, 22 DoF/hand)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Tesla Optimus V3 official reveal event late July / early August 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Tesla Optimus V3 begins formal production at Fremontcascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Optimus V3 Tesla AI5 chip integrated with Grok / xAI co-processingcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Tesla Optimus Gen 4 announced (2027 yearly cadence test)cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-22 — Tesla Q1 2026 update confirms 5.2M sq ft Optimus expansion at Giga Texaspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Geopier foundation work begins at Giga Texas Optimus sitepre #4 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Low-volume Optimus output begins from Austin facilitypre #1 · pending · 2026-09-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Major structural work completed by end of 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Tesla Optimus reaches 1M unit annualized run-ratepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla repurposes Fremont Model S/X line for Optimus productionpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Optimus units perform measurable factory tasks at Tesla plantspre #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Tesla output per employee grows ≥30% YoYpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Tesla's labor productivity outpaces auto-industry peers by ≥2xcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-03 — Tesla Texas factory reduces headcount 22% in 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Tesla cuts >14,000 roles globally in 2025pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Tesla Q2 2026 hiring announcement materializescascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla Optimus production drives >2,000 manufacturing hirescascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cybercab/Robotaxi launch reduces ICE workforce furthercascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Hyperscalers + frontier labs commit >=$1T cumulative AI capex through 2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Compute aggregate exceeds human-brain-equivalent FLOPS across deployed AI fleetpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First permanent off-Earth compute installation (lunar / Starlink-attached) announcedcascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Starlink-attached compute / SpaceX 'Starcloud' commercial service goes livecascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Aggregate AI inference operations exceed measurable human cognitive operations per daypre #5 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Tesla converts Fremont Model S/X line for Optimus productionpre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Tesla Optimus 3 unveiling at mid-2026 eventcascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Tesla Optimus 3 mass production begins Q3 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Optimus 3 vs Figure 03 head-to-head capability comparison publishedcascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 2026 Optimus production volume reaches only hundreds of units (vs Tesla 1M target)cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #6 · pending · 2027-07-19 — Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Medvi reaches $401M revenue Year 1 with effective headcount of 2 — first credible solo-unicorn proof pointpre #5 · pending · 2026-10-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First publicly named 1-person company at $1B+ valuationpre #2 · pending · 2027-09-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Cohort scale — at least 5 named one-person (or <=5 FTE) companies cross $100M revenuecascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-15 — First trillion-dollar valuation for a category-defining solo-founder / micro-team AI companypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Terafab Austin chip facility breaks ground / construction underwaypre #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — AI5 begins production at TSMC Arizona / Samsung Texaspre #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Terafab first wafer-out milestonepre #2 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Tesla fully decouples chip supply from Taiwan-based fabricationpre #1 · pending · 2034-07-02 — US semiconductor self-sufficiency ratio for advanced nodes (<=3nm) >=50%cascade #1 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-07-19 — Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Zoox launches robotaxis in Austin and Miami (own-app expansion)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Zoox commences mapping / pre-deployment testing fleet in Los Angeles metropre #1 · pending · 2027-07-16 — Zoox robotaxi service publicly launches in Los Angeles via Uber app (mid-2027)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #2 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #4 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #5 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Amazon robot count exceeds human warehouse worker count in US fulfillment networkpre #2 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Amazon achieves first 'lights-out' (zero-human) fulfillment shift in major facilitypre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Cascade: Walmart, FedEx, or UPS announces matching robot-majority workforce strategycascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-15 — Cascade: Total US warehouse FTE declines >=15% YoY for first time on recordcascade #2 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #3 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · pending · 2027-12-29 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Cumulative humanoid robot units deployed in commercial settings exceeds 50,000pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Tesla Optimus achieves stated 'high-volume' productionpre #3 · pending · 2028-06-30 — AI software market growth (~20% CAGR) sustains 3+ years while humanoid market remains <$10Bpre #2 · pending · 2028-10-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Industrial humanoid robot ROI parity reached for first major use-casecascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-28 — Robots-lag-software validated by 2029pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Hyperscaler CapEx exceeds $1T cumulative for 2025-2027 windowpre #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Stargate $400B already-committed crosses $500B fully deployedpre #1 · pending · 2028-12-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-05-17 — 100 GW dedicated AI/data-center load on US grid (cumulative interconnection)cascade #2 · pending · 2030-11-15 — Cascade: $5T cumulative US AI/data-center capital deployed (event horizon)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — XPENG IRON ET1 first prototype rolls off production linepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostoncascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Unitree ships 10,000-20,000 humanoid units in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US/Western humanoid <$30K price point reaches mass productioncascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorpre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Chinese humanoid robot patent filings >5x USpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-21 — China captures >90% of global humanoid robot sales 2025pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — US administrative action targets Chinese humanoid importscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tesla Optimus mass production lags Unitreecascade #3 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #4 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Tesla Optimus V3 reaches 1M unit annual productionpre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — SpaceX Starfactory 1000-Starships/yr target validates auto-only pathpre #3 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines.pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First public benchmark test of humanoid in aerospace tooling taskpre #1 · pending · 2028-11-16 — First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe.cascade #1 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Humanoid robot performs full rocket sub-assembly task autonomouslycascade #2 · pending · 2034-07-11 — Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environmentscascade #3 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #4 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #5 · hit · 2026-02-12 — Cursor launches long-running agents in research previewpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Google Vertex AI ships long-running agents as named productcascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Task duration doubling every 7 months continuescascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Multi-hour autonomous research/engineering agents reach 8-hour workday capabilitycascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Enterprise agentic deployment grows 8x from early 2025 to end-2026cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in UScascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostonpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-14 — Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Optimus 1M-unit/yr Fremont line in prepcascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Tesla AI5 chip enters production for Optimus & robotaxicascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tesla 2026 capex doubles to $20B+ for AI/roboticscascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Competing humanoid players (Figure, 1X) match vertical-integration playbookcascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-10 — Unitree R1 humanoid global launch at $4,370 starting pricepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Unitree opens first directly-operated retail store in Beijing (consumer access)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Quadruped robot prices fall to ~10K yuan ($1,400) entry-levelpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Unitree ships 10K-20K humanoid robots in 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Chinese humanoid output grows 94% YoY; Unitree+AgiBot capture ~80% market sharecascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timepre #5 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Starcloud public update on multi-GW orbital DC roadmappre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Meta-Overview Energy 1 GW space-solar reservation milestonepre #1 · pending · 2026-09-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Academic / industry consensus that earth-bound GW AI factories scale through 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Lunar mass-driver / SBSP feasibility study publishedpre #6 · pending · 2026-06-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · partial · 2026-04-30 — First single company to cross $5T market cappre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla / xAI / SpaceX combined enterprise value crosses $5Tpre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — SpaceX completes IPO and provides public market-cap anchorcascade #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Optimus / robotaxi commercial revenue ramp validates AI/robotics premiumcascade #2 · pending · 2027-04-16 — First single company crosses $10T market cappre #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Tesla announces consumer Cybercab fleet-management programpre #5 · pending · 2028-09-19 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2029-07-01 — First documented Cybercab owner achieves break-even on vehicle cost via fleet revenuepre #3 · pending · 2031-02-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2031-07-02 — Cybercab owner-operators >=5% of US Tesla autonomous fleet vehiclespre #1 · pending · 2033-07-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mixed-fleet rideshare app standard becomes industry defaultpre #4 · pending · 2027-12-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-15 — AV market share remains <30% of rideshare miles in any major metropre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First non-rideshare hybrid AV deployment crosses 1M paid tripspre #1 · pending · 2028-09-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-23 — Uber confirms 20+ AV partnerships globally across freight, delivery, and robotaxispre #5 · hit · 2026-03-26 — Uber/Pony.ai/Verne launch Europe's first commercial robotaxi service in Zagrebpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Uber expands autonomous services to Hong Kong, Houston, Madrid, Zurichcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Uber launches Tokyo robotaxi pilot with Nissan and Wayvecascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-22 — Uber discloses operating in 15+ cities with AV partners on Q4 2026 earningscascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in UScascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Waymo reaches 1 million weekly rides targetpre #5 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Uber facilitates 1M+ autonomous rides per week globally (matches/passes Waymo)pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines.pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-01 — Uber autonomous ride volume exceeds Waymo direct-app rides in 2029cascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #3 · pending · 2034-07-11 — Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environmentscascade #4 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #5 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — China multi-AV ecosystem: 4 robotaxi services compete in Beijing/Shanghai/Guangzhoupre #5 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Zoox launches commercial robotaxi on Uber app in Las Vegaspre #4 · pending · 2027-02-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Combined non-Waymo AV providers operate >5K commercial vehicles in USpre #1 · pending · 2028-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — At least 5 distinct AV providers achieve commercial revenue >$100M annuallypre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — First investor or analyst report values the autonomous mobility TAM at >=$1Tpre #5 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Waymo plus Tesla combined commercial robotaxi presence in >=20 metro areaspre #3 · pending · 2027-12-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-30 — Combined US autonomous mobility commercial revenue exceeds $5B annualizedpre #1 · pending · 2028-10-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Autonomous mobility marketplace recognized by mainstream press as multi-hundred-billion categorypre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Waymo crosses 1 million weekly autonomous rides milestonepre #5 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Waymo or Tesla operate driverless service in 20+ US metrospre #3 · pending · 2027-11-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — NHTSA publishes official AV crash-rate report showing safety advantagepre #1 · pending · 2028-08-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — US traffic fatality rate falls 10%+ from 2024 baselinepre #6 · pending · 2027-01-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-01 — NHTSA issues Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) update with explicit AV safety-case thresholdpre #4 · pending · 2027-10-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Independent crash data shows AVs >=2x safer than human drivers on per-mile basis (peer-reviewed)pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-06 — Federal preemption framework replaces state-by-state AV patchworkcascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — First state mandates AV-only routes/lanes during peak hours based on safety casepre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tesla launches consumer-vehicle Unsupervised FSD to retail customerspre #5 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — NHTSA closes FSD traffic-safety investigation without enforcement actionpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Cybercab production exceeds 5,000 units per quarterpre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-01 — Human safety drivers fully removed from Tesla FSD backup role across all commercial fleetspre #6 · pending · 2027-02-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First peer-reviewed AV safety study at 100M+ rider-only milespre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major insurance regulator approves AV-specific actuarial classpre #3 · pending · 2027-12-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — NHTSA publishes AV-fleet aggregate safety report endorsing safety-superiority claimpre #1 · pending · 2028-09-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First major auto insurer publishes AV-discount productpre #5 · pending · 2027-02-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Per-mile robotaxi fare drops below per-mile rideshare with human driverpre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Industry-wide commercial auto liability premium index declinepre #1 · pending · 2028-09-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2028-12-31 — First top-10 OEM commits publicly that >=50% of new model lineup ships with hands-off SAE Level 3+ autonomypre #5 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Mercedes / BMW reverse Level 3 retreat and resume L3 deployment in US-market modelspre #4 · pending · 2030-11-30 — Scenario fires: Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030pre #3 · pending · 2031-07-30 — In 5 years, 70-80% of cars will be autonomous, especially hooked up to your AI.pre #2 · pending · 2032-01-01 — Autonomous-driving software penetration in new US car sales reaches 50%pre #1 · pending · 2032-01-01 — Insurance industry restructures pricing: AV-equipped vehicles get >=30% premium discount as standard actuarial classcascade #1 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #2 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #5 · pending · 2029-09-15 — At least 5 distinct AV providers (Waymo, Zoox, Tesla, plus 2 of: Pony, WeRide, May Mobility, Motional) operating in LApre #4 · pending · 2030-11-30 — Scenario fires: Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030pre #3 · pending · 2031-07-30 — In 5 years, 70-80% of cars will be autonomous, especially hooked up to your AI.pre #2 · pending · 2034-06-16 — AV-rideshare share exceeds 25% of LA paid trips, signaling robotaxi maturitypre #1 · pending · 2035-06-17 — 10+ AV providers active in LA per California DMV deployment permit registrycascade #1 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #2 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First major AV-software M&A transaction >=$5B between named providerspre #3 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Top-3 AV software providers control >=70% of global commercial autonomous milespre #2 · pending · 2032-07-01 — AV-software provider count drops below 10 globally with paid commercial deploymentspre #1 · pending · 2034-06-01 — AV-software industry reaches duopoly or triopoly concentrationcascade #1 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #2 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Tesla, Zoox, Uber-Lucid-Nuro all simultaneously operating commercial robotaxi (multi-stack proof)pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-15 — NHTSA finalizes federal AV regulatory framework allowing multi-vendor competitionpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — 5+ AV stacks reach 100K+ rides/month independentlypre #2 · pending · 2028-06-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — International AV operators (Wayve UK, Baidu, Pony, Toyota) confirm US market entrypre #6 · pending · 2030-09-15 — Automotive LiDAR market crosses $5B annual revenue (ADAS adoption proxy)pre #5 · pending · 2030-11-30 — Scenario fires: Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030pre #4 · pending · 2031-07-30 — In 5 years, 70-80% of cars will be autonomous, especially hooked up to your AI.pre #3 · pending · 2032-07-01 — L3+ autonomous-ready hardware standard in >=50% of new vehicle models in major OEM lineuppre #2 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Scenario fires: Robotaxi mass deployment delayed past 2031pre #1 · pending · 2036-07-01 — 100% of new car models from top-10 OEMs ship autonomous-ready sensor suite (event anchor proxy)cascade #1 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #2 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — AV fleets reach 10-20% of trips in operating citiespre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Waymo fleet remains under 5K vehicles (vs ~250M US registered cars)pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Average vehicle age in US passenger fleet remains >12 yearscascade #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Robotaxi share of US rideshare market reaches ~8% (Goldman target)pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Robotaxi cost-per-mile to consumer falls below $1.50 in any US marketpre #5 · pending · 2027-12-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Driverless rides exceed 1% of total US rideshare market sharepre #3 · pending · 2028-04-28 — Industry body or McKinsey publishes 'autonomous adoption curve >50% in developed markets by 2035' studypre #2 · pending · 2028-10-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Waymo or Tesla operates commercial robotaxi service in 4+ countries outside UScascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-25 — Autonomous becomes very big part of developed marketspre #6 · pending · 2027-12-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Zero major Latin American or African capital city has commercial driverless servicepre #4 · pending · 2028-01-12 — WEF or World Bank report flags AV-divide between developed and developing marketspre #3 · pending · 2028-02-29 — India publishes national autonomous-vehicle regulatory frameworkpre #2 · pending · 2028-10-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Uber's developing-market driverless ride share remains <2% by 2028cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-24 — Developing-market autonomous penetration delay confirmed by 2029pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Robotaxi fleets operate in 20+ markets across 10+ countriespre #5 · pending · 2027-02-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — US new-car sales decline 10%+ YoY in major metros with robotaxi servicepre #2 · pending · 2028-08-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-14 — Survey shows >25% of urban US adults consider not owning a car due to robotaxi accesspre #3 · pending · 2027-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla robotaxi undercuts Waymo fares by ~50% in head-to-head market (Dallas)pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — AAA / Edmunds publish 2026 cost-of-ownership analysis showing private car >$1.10/mi all-inpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Sixth-generation Waymo hardware deployment narrows cost gappre #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Waymo reaches 1M weekly paid rides milestonepre #6 · pending · 2027-03-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — WeRide-Uber 1,200 robotaxi Middle East deployment substantially executed across Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Riyadhpre #4 · pending · 2028-01-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — WeRide-Uber expand from 3 of 15 contracted Middle East cities to >=8 citiespre #2 · pending · 2028-11-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — UAE/KSA robotaxi penetration on Uber app exceeds top US market share by AV-trip volumepre #3 · pending · 2027-02-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Uber operates robotaxis in 15 US/global cities by end of 2026pre #5 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Uber begins scaling global autonomous fleet toward 100,000 vehicles starting 2027pre #4 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Total active drivers on Uber platform globally exceeds 8M (vs ~7.4M in 2024)pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-17 — AV ride-hail surge demand creates 'driver multiplier' — net new gig roles grow despite AV penetrationpre #1 · pending · 2030-10-01 — Hybrid human+AV operations dominant model: 80%+ Uber trips still human-driven by 2030cascade #1 · pending · 2031-07-30 — In 5 years, 70-80% of cars will be autonomous, especially hooked up to your AI.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #4 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Uber-Zoox / Uber-Waymo robotaxi launch in 5+ new cities by year-endcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Driver-survey data (Edison/Pew/QuickTake) reports 20% intent-to-leave annual ratecascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-23 — Uber Q2 2026 / Q3 2026 earnings disclose driver attrition or active-driver countcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS Rideshare-driver category data update through 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Driver-headcount stabilization signal: Uber 2027 disclosed driver count flat or up despite robotaxi growthcascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in USpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-18 — Tesla robotaxi unsupervised launch in Dallas/Houston (Apr 2026)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First academic/industry study confirms autonomous fleets generating net-new ride demand (vs cannibalizing human drivers)pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Combined Waymo+Tesla US robotaxi fleet >10,000 active vehiclespre #1 · pending · 2028-08-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Uber/Lyft total US gross bookings >=10% above pre-AV-launch baseline trendpre #5 · hit · 2026-03-27 — Waymo aggregate weekly rides reach 500K by end of Q1 2026pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Waymo expands Austin and Atlanta service zones in 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Austin/Atlanta Uber-Waymo partnership exceeds 25% of ride sharecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — S&P Global confirms Sun Belt cities outpace national autonomous growthcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Waymo targets 1M weekly rides by end-2026cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in UScascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Robotaxi fares hit 60% discount vs human-driven equivalent rides in mature marketspre #5 · pending · 2027-10-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Robotaxi available in >=20 US metros with sustained pricing competitionpre #3 · pending · 2028-07-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-23 — Personal car ownership rates begin measurable decline in robotaxi-saturated metrospre #1 · pending · 2028-11-07 — Average US ride-hail fare per mile crosses below $0.75 (sustained quarterly average)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Uber announces driver-to-fleet-manager onboarding pilot programpre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First 1,000 driver-to-fleet-manager transitions documentedpre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — AV financing product / loan vehicle available to former rideshare driverscascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Uber reports 10,000+ small-fleet-owner partners in AV economycascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from nowcascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #5 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #5 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Uber-Nuro driverless Lucid robotaxi launches in SF Bay Areapre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Waymo crosses 1M weekly paid robotaxi ridespre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AV chip-supply bottleneck flagged by Uber/Waymo as scaling constraintpre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Uber autonomous fleet target 100,000 vehicles announced for scale-upcascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Driver share of revenue compresses on US ride-hail platformscascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from nowcascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #5 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Robotaxis surpass 5% of US ride-hailing rides nationallypre #3 · pending · 2028-10-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Major US auto manufacturer reports YoY decline in private vehicle sales attributed to AVpre #1 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Mainstream news outlets characterize 'autonomous revolution' as larger societal shift than ride-hailing erapre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — NHTSA publishes proposed FMVSS amendments removing human-driver-specific safety equipment requirementspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · pending · 2031-07-02 — First US state DMV introduces graduated/restricted human driver license tier acknowledging AV-dominant contextpre #1 · pending · 2037-07-01 — First major US state mandates more demanding driving test (e.g., simulator + manual transmission proficiency) for human cascade #1 · pending · 2043-07-02 — Federal NHTSA defines unified human driver license framework alongside AV-only ridership permits (post-AV majority)cascade #2 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-12-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-28 — First US state passes legislation reducing driver-license testing or relaxing requirements due to AV adoptionpre #4 · pending · 2028-04-14 — Major US insurer launches 'driver-optional' or 'no-driver' policy productpre #3 · pending · 2028-10-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — US driver's license issuance rate to 16-19 year olds drops below 60%pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-30 — Driverless miles exceed 5% of total US light-vehicle miles traveled annuallycascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-27 — Cultural recognition of declining driver populationpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Waymo carries $5M primary liability + MedPay insurance layerpre #5 · pending · 2027-02-08 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First state codifies layered AV insurance structure into lawpre #3 · pending · 2027-11-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Product liability becomes routine third layer in major AV insurance disputespre #1 · pending · 2028-08-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — AV insurance market crosses $5B in annual premium volumepre #6 · hit · 2026-03-27 — Waymo provides 500K paid rides/week, on path to 1M/week by end-2026pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Survey-based AV trust crosses 80% in major US robotaxi marketspre #2 · pending · 2028-09-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — Robotaxi rides surpass human-driven rideshare on at least one major Uber route/citypre #6 · hit · 2025-09-15 — Robotaxi cost projected 40% below Uber/Lyft by 2027pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-23 — Uber Autonomous Solutions launches with cost-per-mile reduction stated objectivepre #4 · pending · 2027-02-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First robotaxi market with average price <50% of human ride-hail equivalentpre #2 · pending · 2027-11-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-12-16 — Robotaxi market reaches $100B+ valuation by 2030pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialcascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Uber-Pony.ai commercial robotaxi service launches in a European citycascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Khosrowshahi confirms Uber operating with Chinese AV partners in 10+ countries by year-end 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Uber-Baidu robotaxi launches in London or other non-China non-US marketcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Uber-WeRide expands to 5+ Middle East/Europe cities beyond Saudi Arabia/Dubaicascade #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Uber discloses cumulative robotaxi rides via Chinese AV partners crossing 1Mcascade #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: Uber files investor update splitting AV ride economics from human-driver baselinepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Waymo + Tesla combined US robotaxi fleet exceeds 5,000 vehicles by end of 2026pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First state issues fully unsupervised AV operator permit covering 5+ metro areaspre #2 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Annual US new-vehicle sales with full-self-driving hardware crosses 50% markcascade #1 · pending · 2029-10-31 — Q4 2029 — driver's license still required in Ilia's home statecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in UScascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #5 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Waymo (GOOGL) crosses 250K weekly rides across all marketscascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Pony.ai expands robotaxi fleet to 3,000 vehicles in 20+ citiescascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — WeRide robotaxi fleet crosses 2,600 vehiclescascade #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Tesla Robotaxi national service launches in 5+ U.S. metroscascade #5 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First U.S. state files legislation reducing driver-license renewal cadence citing AVscascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Auto insurance industry reports first material premium decline due to AV displacementpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Uber/Lucid commitment expanded to 35,000 robotaxi vehiclespre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #1 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Robotaxi service in 10+ Uber cities by year-end 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: Uber's published EV-share metric exceeds 30% in top marketscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from nowcascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #6 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First successful CRISPR-engineered chytrid-resistant frog line published in peer-reviewed journalpre #5 · pending · 2028-01-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Colossal Foundation or partner publishes Bd-resistance gene multiplex editing protocol in great spotted tree frog or corpre #3 · pending · 2028-11-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — First field release of gene-edited chytrid-resistant amphibian population approved by national wildlife regulatorpre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — IUCN Red List downlists at least one chytrid-affected species citing genetic-rescue interventioncascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Colossal Biosciences or Ben Lamm publicly announces gene-drive commercial business unitcascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Gene-drive Phase III mosquito field trial starts in sub-Saharan Africacascade #3 · pending · 2027-12-16 — International gene-drive governance framework formalized (Convention on Biological Diversity / WHO)cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — First gene-drive-derived commercial product (mosquito control, agricultural pest control) shipscascade #5 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Cascade: Gene-drive market sizing reports cumulative TAM > $100B in named reportcascade #6 · pending · 2031-12-31 — Cascade: Major rogue or unauthorized gene-drive release becomes geopolitical incidentpre #6 · pending · 2027-05-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Synthetic biology total market crosses $50B annual revenuepre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — AI-designed protein / molecule receives first FDA new molecular entity approvalpre #3 · pending · 2028-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-05-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Synthetic biology firm achieves $100B+ market capcascade #1 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Synthetic biology revenue equals 1% of US GDP (~$300B/yr)pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-16 — Tesla $2B investment in xAI as Master Plan IV vehiclepre #5 · hit · 2026-01-29 — Bloomberg/Reuters reports Musk weighing SpaceX-Tesla-xAI mega-mergerpre #4 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-02-03 — SpaceX-xAI merger closed at $1.25T combined valuationpre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-05-01 — $573M+ web of related-party transactions disclosed in Tesla 10-Kcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Tesla-SpaceX or Tesla-xAI formal merger agreement signedcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Tesla quarterly earnings demonstrate continued financial health (positive FCF, no covenant breaches)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Dan Ives or other major analyst publicly retracts the '80-90% chance SpaceX-Tesla merger by H1 2027' callpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — SpaceX post-IPO operating performance solid (Starlink revenue, Starship cadence)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — End of H1 2027 reached without a Definitive Merger Agreement filed with SECpre #2 · pending · 2027-07-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — If merger occurs, accompanying disclosure cites distress or capital need (validating conditional)cascade #1 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · pending · 2029-04-10 — Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starshippre #5 · pending · 2029-06-08 — Dyson swarm launchers will not be a SpaceX singleton; many orgs will launch their own.pre #4 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.pre #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Tesla-SpaceX-xAI combined entity (or aggregate cap-table) reaches $10Tpre #2 · pending · 2029-11-08 — Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of pre #1 · pending · 2030-03-12 — Tesla, SpaceX, or xAI individually crosses $5T market capcascade #1 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First major liability case / regulatory action explicitly faulting human-authored code over AI alternativepre #3 · pending · 2027-10-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Code-vs-driver legal recognition timing test — code recognition arrives firstpre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — AV legal landmark — first jurisdiction making human driving a presumptive negligence baseline vs autonomy on equipped ropre #6 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Austin and Atlanta autonomous markets growing faster than national averagepre #5 · pending · 2026-09-08 — Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-09 — About 20% of drivers slough off Uber platform annuallypre #3 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Tesla Robotaxi unsupervised commercial service in ≥3 metrospre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First FAA Type Certificate for eVTOL (Joby or Archer)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-08-16 — Commercial eVTOL passenger service operating in LA by July 2028cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in UScascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #5 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX confidentially files S-1 for IPO including xAIpre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-05-16 — Combined entity loss of $5B reported, raising IPO execution riskpre #2 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — SpaceX-xAI combined IPO targets $1.75T-$2T valuation in summer 2026 listingpre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Claude Code annualized revenue exceeds $2.5Bpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Anthropic ARR crosses $30B and surpasses OpenAIpre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic ARR reaches $100B (interim milestone toward $1T)pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Anthropic ARR reaches $1T by EOY 2027 (target)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: Anthropic IPO or tender offer at $1T+ valuationpre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Single hyperscaler discloses >$200B annual AI capexpre #2 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Single AI-customer commitment to one vendor exceeds $300Bpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Annualized run-rate spend by one buyer to one vendor crosses $500Bcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-19 — First public $1T-class AI vendor spend headlinepre #6 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Tesla breaks ground on 10M-unit/year Optimus factory at Giga Texaspre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Figure deploys autonomous in-home humanoid in unseen environmentspre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Cumulative humanoid robot deployments cross 100K units across all manufacturerspre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First measurable services-sector productivity uplift from humanoid deploymentcascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-30 — By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the worldcascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #4 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #5 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · pending · 2029-07-30 — By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the worldpre #5 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.pre #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timepre #3 · pending · 2030-07-02 — First widely reported humanoid robot product recall or fleet-wide groundingpre #2 · pending · 2032-09-30 — Industry pivots from monolithic humanoid to modular/embedded form factorspre #1 · pending · 2033-12-31 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033cascade #1 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #4 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-19 — Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027cascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostonpre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Hyperscaler AI traffic capex includes net-new bandwidth/spectrum line itempre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Starlink/Kuiper announce robot/AV-class connectivity tiercascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production start signals demand validation for connected humanoidscascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cellular IoT module shipments for robotics/AV cross 100M annualizedcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Spectrum policy: FCC or peer regulator allocates net-new AI-machine-class spectrumcascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostoncascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Major US/EU news incident: humanoid robot injures human at consumer-facing eventcascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — ASTM/ISO publishes first humanoid-specific safety standardcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First US state introduces legislation regulating humanoid robots in public spacescascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Polling shows majority of Americans 'concerned' about humanoid robots in publiccascade #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cybersecurity firm publishes proof-of-concept exploit for production humanoid robot fleetpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostoncascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — SoftWear Automation releases third-gen T-shirt Sewbot for commercial salecascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — BESTSELLER or comparable apparel major announces production volume from Sewbot linescascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First humanoid-robot fashion-stitching demo from Figure/1X/Apptronikcascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #6 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Sewbot or Sewbo deploys at scale outside textile pilot plants — 100+ units in commercial usepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostoncascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Tesla Optimus 3 begins production at Fremont (summer 2026)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First peer-reviewed paper on multi-modal embodied 'general' robot intelligencecascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Genetic-engineering policy debate around human germline editing intensifiespre #6 · pending · 2031-07-02 — First Fortune 500 plant operates with majority-humanoid line shiftpre #5 · pending · 2032-01-01 — BLS or comparable agency reports first measurable humanoid-driven labor displacement in manufacturingpre #4 · pending · 2033-12-31 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033pre #3 · pending · 2035-03-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2035-05-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2035-08-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #5 · pending · 2030-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030pre #4 · pending · 2033-12-31 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033pre #3 · pending · 2040-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2040-04-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2040-05-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2029-09-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2030-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030pre #1 · pending · 2031-07-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla Optimus Grok-5 conversational training operational in factoriespre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — 1X NEO ships to early-access homes with conversational UI as defaultpre #4 · pending · 2027-01-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Voice-UI becomes standard reference architecture in humanoid product literaturepre #2 · pending · 2027-07-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Field-deployment data: voice commands account for >50% of task initiationspre #5 · hit · 2026-01-31 — NVIDIA Jetson T4000 ships with Blackwell architecture for roboticspre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major humanoid platform demonstrates on-device SLM inference without cloudcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Edge SLM benchmark hits parity with frontier model on robotics task classcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Power consumption of localized humanoid reasoning drops below 50W sustainedcascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Robotics silicon shipments cross 1M-unit annual threshold for SLM-class NPUspre #4 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · partial · 2026-04-30 — Figure publishes weekly production update confirming sustained 1-robot-per-hour cadencepre #1 · pending · 2026-08-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — BotQ first-pass yield holds >=80% on quarterly disclosurecascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Cumulative Figure 03 deployments crosses 1,000 unitscascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Independent third-party verifies 30-day sustained 1/hr production ratecascade #4 · pending · 2026-11-30 — BotQ #2 (or Phase 2 expansion) site groundbreaking or staffing ramp announcementpre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Global humanoid deployment exceeds 19,000 units across 15+ operatorspre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Figure AI annual production capacity reaches 12,000 units/year (BotQ)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — UBTECH Walker S2 mass production with >800M yuan order book reaches 1,000+ deliveredpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-31 — Cascade: Industry tracker reports >=5 vendors over 1,000-unit cumulative deployment by EOY 2027pre #6 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Cascade: Chinese provincial-level fiscal default or restructuring acknowledged by Beijingpre #5 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Chinese statutory retirement age raised again (beyond Sept 2024 reform raising men to 63, women to 55/58)pre #4 · pending · 2030-01-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2030-12-31 — China population drops below 1.35 billion (~70 million decline from 2022 peak of 1.412B)pre #2 · pending · 2032-02-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Cascade: China's working-age population drops below 800M (from ~860M in 2024)pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-16 — DRC cobalt/copper conflict escalates to militarized confrontation with M23 / Rwanda dimensionspre #4 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Project Vault and Western critical-mineral stockpile crosses $25B in deployed capitalpre #3 · pending · 2028-01-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-01-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-12-15 — Cascade: regional water-rights conflict escalates to interstate military action over fertilizer/agriculture inputspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — IEA forecasts solar share crosses 15% by 2030 reaffirmedpre #5 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Solar LCOE crosses below $0.030/kWh global averagepre #3 · pending · 2028-03-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Lithium-ion battery storage LCOS crosses below $0.05/kWhpre #1 · pending · 2029-05-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-09-16 — Solar PV reaches 33% global electricity generationpre #6 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Battery pack price drops below $60/kWh (stationary storage)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — TransWest Express HVDC (3 GW Wyoming-to-Nevada) approved for full construction startpre #4 · pending · 2028-01-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Battery-swapping bankruptcy wave concludes; surviving operators scale to >=1,000 stationspre #2 · pending · 2029-01-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: ICE premium fully erased — EV TCO at parity for >=80% of vehicle classespre #6 · pending · 2027-12-16 — US Inflation Reduction Act + critical-mineral domestic content rules drive >=$100B onshore capacitypre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — China non-pumped storage capacity exceeds 300 GW (energy-island anchor)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Saudi Arabia / Australia announce solar-anchor industrial export PPA at sub-2c/kWhpre #1 · pending · 2029-01-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Cascade: nation lacking energy-island stack experiences industrial output contraction >=10%pre #6 · pending · 2027-12-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Sub-cent solar PPA signed in any utility-scale US bid roundpre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Synthetic biology / bioprocessing market crosses $50B annual revenuepre #2 · pending · 2028-12-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — LanzaTech reaches 30,000 metric ton/year commercial-scale protein productioncascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-15 — Cascade: first gigaton-scale bio-industrial production milestone (>=1Gt CO2-equivalent feedstock processed)pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Major migration / asylum policy crisis in OECD bloc with explicit demographic-bifurcation framing in policy languagepre #5 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Africa-origin labor-arbitrage migration agreement signed between EU/US and Sub-Saharan partnerpre #4 · pending · 2027-12-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — China population decline accelerates beyond projection (>=10M annual decline)pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: dependency-ratio crisis triggers pension-system insolvency event in major OECD economypre #6 · pending · 2027-12-16 — China solar manufacturing capacity exceeds 1,500 GW/yrpre #5 · pending · 2027-12-16 — China clean-energy share of new generation crosses 60%pre #4 · pending · 2028-02-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-12-15 — Global annual solar deployment exceeds 800 GWpre #2 · pending · 2029-03-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Scenario fires: Stargate failure: <500MW by 2029pre #6 · hit · 2026-05-01 — AI agent registers EIN, opens bank account, and operates as autonomous corporationpre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — First single-founder company achieves $1B annualized revenuepre #2 · pending · 2027-02-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI-operated company crosses $1B valuation with no human CEOpre #5 · overdue · 2026-02-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Apptronik Apollo deployed at Mercedes-Benz manufacturing plant for tote deliverypre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour throughput at BotQpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — First city/state municipal humanoid-as-service contract announcedcascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Hundreds of robotics companies confirmed in active humanoid commercial pilotscascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Cumulative humanoid robots deployed in commercial workforce >=10,000 unitspre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — China data center construction capacity disclosure (MIIT or equivalent)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Chinese frontier model trained on domestic chips reaches Claude/GPT-class capabilitycascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — U.S. export-control modification or enforcement gap announcedcascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Chinese AI lab announces frontier-scale training run on domestic infrastructurepre #4 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — BLS publishes Q1 2026 wage data showing data-center technician wage growthcascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Major hyperscaler announces dedicated trade-skills training partnershipcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major union (IBEW, UA) reports 20%+ apprenticeship enrollment growthcascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Six-figure wages disclosed for AI-DC construction tradespre #6 · pending · 2026-11-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Onsite natural gas projects represent largest near-term DC power solution in USpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Microsoft-Constellation Three Mile Island PPA delivers 837MW for AI data centerspre #2 · pending · 2028-07-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Natural gas share of new global ex-China power additions crosses 20% threshold by late 2020scascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — First commercial SMR delivers power to a hyperscaler data centerpre #4 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028pre #3 · pending · 2029-02-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-04-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-01 — DoD or Pentagon publishes binding AI-procurement framework for frontier modelspre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — China announces dedicated >5 GW state-backed AI compute campuspre #3 · pending · 2027-08-31 — China demonstrates frontier-class model trained predominantly on domestic chipspre #2 · pending · 2027-10-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-27 — AI arms race becomes mainstream foreign-policy framing by 2029pre #1 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Microgrid + DERMS adoption crosses 18.5 GWh installed globallycascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 72% of new US grid additions through 2030 are solar/storage/microgridcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major utility deploys DERMS at scale to coordinate residential VPPcascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Residential solar+battery attach rate >=50% in CA/AZ/TX new installationscascade #4 · pending · 2029-03-16 — FERC issues final rule mandating DERMS interconnection standardspre #6 · pending · 2027-08-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-15 — IEA 2027 Africa Energy Outlook publishes empirical 'energy stacking' framework (vs substitution)pre #4 · pending · 2029-03-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Peri-urban Africa land-use survey documents simultaneous solar+biomass+LPG+grid stacking in ≥5 metrospre #2 · pending · 2030-10-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2031-03-21 — Universal electrification target slips beyond 2035 due to entrenched stacking (vs IEA NZE substitution)pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-26 — CATL launches commercial sodium-ion battery productionpre #5 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-02-05 — First mass-produced sodium-ion EV unveiled (Changan + CATL)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-28 — QuantumScape Eagle Line opens with QSE-5 cells deliveredpre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Toyota begins solid-state battery productioncascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Third non-lithium chemistry (LFMP, lithium-sulfur, or zinc-air) commercializespre #6 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Charging network deployment supports cross-country 1000-mi EV touringpre #5 · pending · 2030-07-02 — First production EV homologated for >1000 mi range AND <45 min full charge (combined)pre #4 · pending · 2032-09-30 — 1000-mile EV reaches >100,000 cumulative production volumepre #3 · pending · 2033-08-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2034-03-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2034-10-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Tesla Megablock 20MWh integrated BESS deployed in commercial sitepre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — EU large-battery installed base exceeds 25 GWpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-30 — EU negative-price hours decline year-over-year for first time since 2022pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Renewable IPP earnings call cites battery-arbitrage as primary economic driverpre #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First Uber-managed AV depot signs grid-scale PPA with utility for off-peak nighttime chargingpre #5 · pending · 2028-03-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Residential solar+battery installations cross 25% of new single-family home builds in CA, TX, AZpre #3 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Major utility files for grid-upgrade tariff specifically targeting commercial AV depot loadspre #2 · pending · 2029-05-26 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2030-08-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-22 — Tesla Q1 2026 earnings: Fremont line conversion confirmed for late July/Augpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Optimus low-volume production starts at Fremont (summer 2026)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Optimus retail price publicly disclosed at $20-30K per unitcascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — First Optimus retail customer / external sales contract announcedcascade #4 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Cumulative external Optimus units sold >=100pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Optimus integration testing on Starship payload mock-upcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — SpaceX confirms Starship V3 readiness for Mars launch windowcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Optimus reaches Mars surface in 2026 launchcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-01 — Mars launch window opens November 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-16 — If 2026 launch slips, formal target shifts to 2028 transfer windowpre #3 · pending · 2037-01-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2038-01-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2039-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Bipartisan US bill targeting China access to semiconductor manufacturing toolspre #5 · pending · 2027-04-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — US industrial-policy package targeting commercial robotics or hardware sectorpre #3 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-10-31 — Major US automaker or industrial firm publicly cites loss of price/scale to Chinese competitorpre #1 · pending · 2029-11-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Stargate exceeds 10GW infrastructure committed (target was 2029)pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI revenue crosses $30B annualized run-ratepre #3 · pending · 2027-09-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-31 — OpenAI's enterprise market share crosses 50% of foundation model spendpre #1 · pending · 2028-07-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — OpenAI explicitly described or regulated as 'utility-like' AI infrastructurepre #5 · pending · 2027-09-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2029-06-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2030-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030pre #2 · pending · 2030-12-31 — Scenario fires: Compute: 100GW national-scale by Dec 2030pre #1 · pending · 2031-03-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Global GDP measurement revised upward >=3% from 2025 projection due to AIpre #5 · pending · 2030-01-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2031-12-31 — Scenario fires: No NBER recession through 2031pre #3 · pending · 2032-01-01 — 5x GDP scenarios become standard high-side projection in IMF/OECD/BIS long-horizon outlookspre #2 · pending · 2032-01-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2032-12-31 — World GDP doubles relative to 2025 baseline ($100T → $200T constant USD)pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-01 — xAI-SpaceX-Tesla three-way combination publicly proposed by Musk or boardpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — SpaceX completes traditional IPO without Tesla reverse merger structure (DISCONFIRMING signal)pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Wall Street analyst consensus shifts toward Tesla-SpaceX merger 2027 timeline (Teslarati-cited prediction validated)pre #2 · pending · 2028-05-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-01-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-08-01 — G7 critical-minerals price floor or buyer's club operationalizedpre #5 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First aerospace prime (Boeing, Lockheed, RTX) announces full critical-mineral domestic-source mandatepre #4 · pending · 2028-04-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2029-03-16 — First major US national champion rare-earth or tungsten refiner operating at scalepre #2 · pending · 2029-06-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — US import reliance for rare earths drops below 50% (from 80% in 2024)target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift
178 plotted · 3 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to TSLA.

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)
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Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.