0 25 50 75 100 history 230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis ✓ 238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now ✓ 240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months ✓ AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake ✓ 238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) ✓ CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20 ✓ AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o ✓ 240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 ✓ FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna ✓ AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en ✓ 242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission ✓ 244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years ✓ 241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation ✓ 229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne ✓ IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct ✓ SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S ✓ SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil ✓ SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on ✓ 232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti ✓ 241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom ✓ AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓ 234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 ✓ 242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license ✓ 233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra ✓ CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val ✓ 246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers). ✓ 238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) ✓ 247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston ✓ AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using ✓ IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do ✓ AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓ CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la ✓ AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c ✓ CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba ✓ 247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial ✓ 235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). ✓ 245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE ✓ CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o ✓ 246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. ✓ FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain- ✓ ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin ✓ ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU ✓ INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva ✓ INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula ✓ SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f ✓ SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. ✓ INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n ✓ 229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. ✓ 248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. ✓ 248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. ✓ ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence- ✓ CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to ✓ 235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. ✓ SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc ✓ SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f ✓ 237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca ✓ 238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days ✓ 232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. ✓ 241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long ✓ 245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed ✓ SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme ✓ 248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. ✓ SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200 ✓ 229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. ✓ CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re ✓ CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi ✓ CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr ✓ SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate ✓ INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup ✓ INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor ✓ SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. ✓ SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying ✓ SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓ SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu ✓ SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual ✓ 231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. ✗ 231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. ✗ 235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. ✗ 244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years ◐ 239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world ◐ INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol ◐ 232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani ◐ 236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours ◐ SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad ◐ AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey ◐ 238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi ◐ 231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. ◐ CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐ 246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. ◐ AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree ◐ 246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). ◐ 247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently ◐ 245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus ◐ INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn ◐ INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat ◐ 246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. ◐ INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob ◐ SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se ◐ ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar ◐ INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await ◐ SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr ◐ INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive ◐ SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐ SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na ◐ SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u ◐ SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast ◐ SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10 ◐ SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci ◐ CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go ◐ INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — ◐ INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive ◐ SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a ◐ Jan 2026 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2027 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2028 Feb Mar Apr May Jun today pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AstroForge Vestri asteroid mission flies pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — NASA Artemis lunar mining base architecture funded pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-30 — First commercial lunar mining sample-return mission pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-01 — International framework on celestial-body resource extraction signed cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-16 — First commercial extraction of asteroid material returned to Earth at scale pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Goldman Sachs / McKinsey publishes humanoid GDP-impact model with jurisdiction comparisons pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First sub-national jurisdiction (city/state) launches humanoid-friendly economic zone pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Global humanoid shipments cross 100,000 units in calendar year cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — First peer-reviewed empirical paper measuring per-jurisdiction GDP uplift from humanoid deployment cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Wage suppression of low-skill manual labor exceeds 5% in robot-dense jurisdiction cascade #3 · pending · 2028-11-30 — If 100K total humanoid units not deployed by window-close 2028-11-30, 100x-GDP claim fails timing cascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Figure or competitor demonstrates Helix-class robot performing >=3 distinct novel household tasks not in training set pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Figure ships paid commercial home-deployment beta pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Robotics academic paper demonstrates 'one neural net, many tasks' generalization beating task-specific baselines pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Figure / 1X / Apptronik raise revenue >$500M annualized from humanoid sales cascade #2 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: Humanoid robot installed base >100K units globally pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Cumulative tech layoffs cross 200K for 2026 pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BLS labor productivity shows 3-10x productivity gain in AI-exposed roles cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Median enterprise reports planning-cycle compression from quarterly to monthly pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First Fortune-500 firm publicly adopts continuous-strategy operating model pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Agentic AI shifts decision cycles from days to minutes at flagship deployment cascade #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Course-correction in minutes becomes industry-standard at AI-native firms cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Frontier model release cadence remains <=4 months between major versions pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — OpenAI/Anthropic safety evaluation period >=4 weeks pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Internal-only model demos at OpenAI DevDay or research blog pre #1 · pending · 2026-05-02 — Frontier benchmark advances (FrontierMath, ARC-AGI) signal capability jumps every quarter cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — OpenAI ships next-generation reasoning model in mid-2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — 55K AI-attributed layoffs in 2025 (Workday, Amazon, Salesforce et al) pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-28 — 32K tech-firm job losses in first 2 months of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major industry (call centers, BPO, customer support) shows >15% YoY headcount decline cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI-driven labor displacement reaches 1M jobs/year displacement rate cascade #3 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — First Proof Challenge: AI solves >=1 of 10 expert-curated math problems cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — All 10 of Blundin-referenced research math problems solved by AI cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Mexican government breach: 195M taxpayer records exfiltrated via Claude Code pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — 88% of enterprises report AI agent security incidents pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-17 — Social license, not chips or compute, may be the true bottleneck to AI and will force expansion into space. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Number of publicly running autonomous AI agents crosses 100M cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First publicly attributed physical-world harm event from AI agent cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-08 — FTC mandates AI Interoperability for largest providers (Microsoft/Alphabet) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-07 — Big-Tech earnings-call language pivots from capability hype to caveat cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Public AI-leader statements explicitly downplay near-term capability cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Antitrust enforcement action filed against an AI hyperscaler partnership cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Mainstream-press cover-story: "What is human purpose in age of AI?" pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — BLS US labor force participation prints below 62% for 3 consecutive months pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — UBI pilot announced at federal or major-state level cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: aggregate "all-AI agent army" headcount across labs > human workforce of those labs cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — 55,000 AI-attributed job losses tallied for 2025 pre #5 · hit · 2026-01-04 — Goldman Sachs forecasts AI-led layoffs continue into 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — McKinsey reports workers spend 30-40% less on routine tasks cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major bank/insurance company announces >25% headcount reduction tied to AI cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Forward-looking 3x productivity validation by mid-2027 cascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — GPT-5.2-style scaffolded reasoning agent extends or generalizes the gluon-amplitude result to a second open theoretical- pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Frontier-model release with explicit 'autonomous research agent' branding from at least one of OpenAI/Anthropic/Google D pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Major AI lab publishes peer-reviewed scientific paper in which AI is credited as primary author of a novel theoretical-p pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major physics community body (APS, IOP, CERN) issues formal statement or working group on AI as scientific contributor pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Independent physical-laboratory experimental confirmation of an AI-derived theoretical prediction cascade #1 · pending · 2029-04-16 — Nobel Prize in Physics or major physics prize (Breakthrough, Wolf, Sakurai) cites AI-assisted discovery in award rationa cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — AI fluency becomes formal performance review criterion at Fortune 500 pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI-native employee compensation premium emerges in salary surveys cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Khanmigo + Synthesis Tutor + Alpha School deliver real-time personality-driven AI tutors pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Custom-personality voice tutor available (configurable celebrity/style voice) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Independent study confirms learning gains from personality-driven AI tutors cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Major LMS integration (Canvas/Google Classroom) ships avatar-tutor module cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Frontier model achieves >=50% on a credible multi-domain 'do everything' agent benchmark (METR HCAST, GAIA hard, OSWorld pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI agent autonomously completes a multi-week real-world commercial project end-to-end without human intervention beyond pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Enterprise AI agent production deployment crosses 50% of large enterprises (Fortune 1000) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Anthropic, OpenAI, or DeepMind publicly declares 'AGI achieved' or equivalent capability milestone pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Anthropic revenue run-rate exceeds $50B annualized (consistent with $1T-by-2030 trajectory) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — BLS or Treasury attributes a measurable fraction (>0.5pp) of unemployment to AI displacement in official report cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Replicator delivers thousands of autonomous units (vs hundreds 2025) pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI weapons score combat-relevant decisive engagement edge in major war game pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — First fully autonomous (lethal) AI weapon authorized for use cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #4 · hit · 2026-03-28 — Sustained tear-gas dispersals at protests in major US cities pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Political-violence assassination event during 2026 pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Protest momentum carries through 2027–2028 election cycle pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: AI pause beginning 2027 cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Sotheby's 2026 Luxury Outlook flags rural / destination luxury as outperformer pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-30 — PwC ULI 2026 Emerging Trends ranks tier-2 / destination markets above gateway cities pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Resort/destination luxury markets (Aspen, Jackson, Sun Valley, Hamptons) appreciate >5% YoY pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Manhattan trophy condo prices stagnate or decline in 2026 pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Sun Belt secondary luxury markets (Nashville, Salt Lake City, San Diego) maintain stable to rising prices through 2027 cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2025-11-15 — Palo Alto Networks declares 2026 'Year of the Defender' with autonomous AI pre #5 · pending · 2026-03-17 — Major ransomware attack attributed to LLM-driven adversary pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI security spend overtakes traditional SIEM/SOAR spend cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — GPT-5.5 ships as new leading AI model pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 ships at 1 trillion parameters pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier labs shift narrative away from raw parameters toward reasoning compute cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — 100x raw parameter growth claim verified or refuted via 2026 disclosures cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — TIME publishes warning on AI WMD security gap pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-14 — King's College study: AI escalates to nuclear signaling in 95% of crises pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — End-of-2026 milestone: AI agent demonstrably enables 'any virus' design cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Colorado AI Act (SB 24-205) takes effect imposing duty of care on high-risk AI systems pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — 5+ states pass binding AI workforce/employment laws by year-end 2026 pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — AI Workforce PREPARE Act (S.3339) advances out of Senate committee pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Congress passes a comprehensive federal AI law in 2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI-related crisis or major harm event triggers reactive emergency legislation cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — District court reaches summary judgment or trial verdict on Anthropic's claims pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Circuit court (9th or DC) issues appellate ruling on supply chain risk designation cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Cascade: Final resolution (settlement, SCOTUS denial, or final appellate ruling) ~3 years from filing cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Hyperscaler custom-silicon deployment crosses majority of new capacity pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Nvidia gross margin guides below 70% for any quarter pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Sustained sell-through despite margin compression (chips-still-sell signal) pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AMD MI400-class or Intel Gaudi-4 wins major hyperscaler order pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Sell-side downgrade specifically citing margin sustainability cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Smartphone shipments rebound in unit terms YoY pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Apple AI-native iPhone or major OS overhaul announcement pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — OpenAI-Qualcomm-MediaTek AI-first phone reaches developer/preview pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — 2nm NPU-class SoC launches across Apple/Qualcomm/MediaTek/Google cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-18 — Average smartphone ASP rises driven by NPU-rich SKUs cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Nvidia reaches $4.3T market cap, largest in S&P 500 (~7.0% weight) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Hyperscaler AI capex hits $725B annual run rate in 2026 pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — AI sector market cap reaches 50%+ share of US public market cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-07 — Digital AI Omnibus deferral negotiation outcome pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-02 — EU AI Act high-risk obligations enter into application August 2, 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — G7 / G20 publish coordinated AI governance framework cascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Chinese-origin frontier model achieves frontier capability (Gemini 3 / GPT-5.5 parity) cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — US executive order or Congress passes federal AI governance baseline cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Senior Anthropic or OpenAI policy lead takes federal AI regulatory role pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Federal AI oversight body or self-regulatory body formally established pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Ex-frontier-lab person returns from government to lab cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Autonomous coding agents handle full PR cycle (test + fix + refactor) at scale pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI 2027 forecast tracking: pace remains within 50-150% of predicted trajectory pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Goldman Sachs / IMF models start showing AI-driven GDP boost in 2027 forecasts pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Frontier training runs reach 2e28 FLOP scale (~1000x GPT-4) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Superintelligence takeoff signals (sustained recursive self-improvement claims) cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Young-worker (22-25) employment in AI-exposed jobs falls ≥15% pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AI-attributed tech layoffs cross 100K cumulative 2026 pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Mass-mobilization protest tied to AI/automation displacement pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — State or federal UBI / wage-insurance bill introduced citing AI displacement cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Uber commits >$1B capital to robotaxi fleet purchases pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Gridwise reports ≥10% rideshare driver earnings drop in AV cities pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Uber CEO formally guides drivers as transition risk in 10K filing pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Robotaxi share crosses 8% of US ridehail market cascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Robotaxi displacement of frontline driving jobs reaches 20% in test cities cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Long-running Claude scientific computing case studies published pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Public benchmark for multi-day agent task completion launches cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Agent runs autonomously for >=72 hours on production task without human intervention cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Multi-agent orchestration runs >=1 week continuously cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — US ride-share active driver count remains stable or grows despite Waymo/Tesla expansion pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-22 — Total US vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT) sets record high after autonomous vehicle inflection pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Long-haul trucking driver count maintained >=90% of 2025 baseline despite AV trucks cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: Rural/non-corridor delivery driver wages rise >=20% as AV concentrates in dense urban cascade #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: Total demand for human-driven services exceeds 2025 levels even at 50% AV market share cascade #3 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Frontier labs disclose >=10x effective compute scale-up from Q1 2026 to mid-year cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Public benchmark step-change demonstrates capability gap between Jan-2026 and YE-2026 models cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — End-of-2026 frontier model capability disclosures confirm 100x scaling claim cascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Capability jump triggers visible economic dislocation in white-collar productivity cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Sequoia / a16z announces formal AI-augmented investment committee process pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Rowspace (AI for VC) reaches Series B / $1B+ valuation pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First AI-led VC fund publicly reports portfolio outperforming peer median pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — AI auto-sourced deal leads to top-decile exit / unicorn pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Anthropic 2026 fiscal-year ARR exit-rate disclosed — checkpoint on '10x in 2026' premise pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Anthropic IPO or pre-IPO valuation crosses $1T pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Anthropic 2027 ARR run-rate vs the 10x trajectory — major variance check cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — U6 underemployment rate crosses 9% sustained for 2+ months pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major US protest event explicitly framed as 'AI job loss' organized pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — NBER recession declaration for 2026 or 2027 pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2027 cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Goldman Sachs: AI reduces US monthly payroll by ~16K, +0.1pp unemployment pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Uber-Nuro driverless launch in SF (driver-replacement waypoint) pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Margin pressure on management drives AI-substitution wave in entry-level white collar pre #2 · pending · 2028-04-30 — US driver workforce (taxi+rideshare+truck) declines >5% YoY pre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Wage gap between AI-augmented and AI-substituted occupations widens >10pp cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — 43% of Gen Z plans entrepreneurship in 2026 (highest of any generation) pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Counter-evidence: Gen Z entry-level posting share drops below 35% pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Gen Z founder share of new startup formations crosses 30% pre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Younger Gen Z wage growth outpaces older Millennial cohort 2026-2028 cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic crosses $50B annualized revenue run rate pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Amazon AWS reaches $200B annualized revenue run rate pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — NVIDIA full-year revenue exceeds $300B with growth slowing pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Anthropic crosses $100B ARR or surpasses OpenAI on revenue cascade #1 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Amazon publishes guidance crossing $1T annual revenue run rate cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: AI-services revenue concentration triggers antitrust review cascade #3 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2025-02-24 — NVIDIA holds ≥70% of CoWoS-L advanced packaging capacity for 2025 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-10 — Jensen Huang publicly requests TSMC 3nm capacity expansion +50% pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-01 — TSMC 3nm capacity utilization hits 100% in H1 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Independent disclosure of NVIDIA share of TSMC 3nm wafer starts ≥70% cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Apple secures meaningful 2nm allocation, leaving NVIDIA dominant on 3nm legacy cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — DOJ second-request CID or formal investigation announcement on NVIDIA pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Senate or House antitrust subcommittee hearing scheduled with NVIDIA testimony request cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-23 — FTC opens parallel investigation tied to AI bundling / tying allegations cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — China SAMR formal anti-monopoly penalty or remedy on NVIDIA cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — NVIDIA agrees to conduct or behavioral remedy (consent decree) cascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #2 · pending · 2027-04-01 — NVIDIA discloses long-term TSMC capacity reservation (multi-year lock-up) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — DOJ/FTC issues second-request CID or formal complaint targeting NVIDIA contracts cascade #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Cascade: TSMC publicly diversifies advanced-node customer commitments (counter-narrative) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: NVIDIA settles or accepts behavioral remedies on capacity-contract terms cascade #3 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Nvidia Rubin Ultra (2nm) tape-out and ramp confirmed at TSMC pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — TSMC N2 (2nm) wafer-capacity ramp constrains Nvidia supply cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Nvidia data-center revenue doubles from FY2026 baseline cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Post-Rubin-Ultra Feynman roadmap node confirmed (1.6nm or backside power) cascade #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Nvidia stock multiple compresses post-Rubin Ultra ramp despite growth cascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Humanity's Last Exam top score crosses 50% threshold pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI investment exceeds $700B annualized run-rate cascade #1 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Top-tier benchmark performance growth >=2x by mid-2027 cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Frontier lab releases hybrid post-transformer model (Mamba/JEPA/diffusion or novel architecture) at production scale pre #2 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Sam Altman / frontier-lab CEO public statement: post-transformer architecture identified or imminent pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Novel architecture exceeds transformer on widely-followed benchmark (MMLU, GPQA, SWE-Bench, ARC-AGI) at matched compute cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Industry shift signal: ≥ 2 of top-5 frontier labs deploy non-pure-transformer flagship cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier model trained on architecture that does NOT efficiently map to NVIDIA tensor cores pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-19 — New AI lab founded specifically around post-transformer architecture (Anthropic-class) pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Cascade: NVIDIA gross margin compression >=500 bps as customers shift to alternative-arch chips cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-14 — Cascade: Post-transformer-native lab valued >=$50B (next Anthropic/OpenAI scale) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic crosses $1T valuation in primary or active secondary market pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI completes funding or IPO at >=$1T valuation pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — xAI / SpaceX combined entity valued >=$1T via SpaceX IPO pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Google DeepMind / Alphabet AI segment crosses $1T attributable value cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Fifth lab (Meta SuperIntelligence Labs OR Microsoft AI division) reaches $1T attributable value cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-15 — ASML confirms 2026 EUV production target of ~60 machines (not 700-1000 as quoted by Blundin) pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Foundry capacity expansion announcements cite EUV bottleneck as constraint cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — ASML High-NA EUV (EXE:5200/5400) shipments commence to leading-edge fabs cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-08 — ASML 2027 production guidance set (target ~80 machines) cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: ASML announces 2030 capacity expansion plan exceeding 100 EUV machines/year cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenAI ships 'super-app' with agent + browse + voice unified experience pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Wispr-class voice-first AI app crosses #1 productivity in App Store pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — ChatGPT crosses 1B weekly active users cascade #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — New consumer app reaches >50M MAU within 90 days of launch cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Academic / industry survey on AI-and-wellbeing publishes effect-size data cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — AI spreadsheet/data agents reach 90% accuracy threshold cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Junior software dev hiring drops further from -20% baseline cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 80% of enterprise apps embed AI agents cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Enterprise AI agent investment exceeds $600B in 2026 cascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Major Fortune 500 firm publicly attributes >5% workforce reduction to AI agents handling SQL/UI/coding work cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — California SB 951 amends Cal-WARN Act to cover AI-driven displacement pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — First state passes AI-displacement retraining law with employer-funded reskilling mandate cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Federal DOL launches AI-displaced worker retraining pilot programs cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — 5+ states adopt AI retraining mandates by 2027 cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-20 — Anthropic and Amazon disclose new strategic agreement (>$5B incremental investment) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-23 — Anthropic board approves $50B-class private fundraising round at near-trillion valuation cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Cascade: Microsoft-OpenAI relationship publicly strained / repriced post-Anthropic-Amazon deal cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Anthropic confidentially or publicly files S-1 with SEC cascade #3 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Anthropic prices IPO and begins public trading cascade #4 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Cascade: Anthropic IPO valuation at first-day close exceeds $1T cascade #5 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Edison Scientific Kosmos: AI scientist running on GPUs serves >50K researchers pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — CMR Surgical Versius validated on Cosmos-H simulation for clinical deployment pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Frontier model solves first-Proof-Challenge math problem (5-page proof) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-28 — Activist letters explicitly cite AI labor reduction as value-creation thesis pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Mega-cap multiple compression accelerates (cascade) pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Russell 2000 P/E multiple compresses below 16x while EPS expands pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Russell 2000 small/mid-cap aggregate FCF growth >50% YoY pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — High-labor-share small caps (consulting, staffing, BPO) show triple-digit FCF growth cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-13 — Zhipu GLM-5 (744B params) trained on 100K Huawei Ascend chips pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Moonshot Kimi K2.6 ships as 1T-param MoE open model cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — >=5 distinct organizations release trillion-parameter-class models cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Anthropic / OpenAI announce internal custom-silicon strategy pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AI ASIC market grows 44%+ in 2026 (Gartner/IDC validation) pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Per-watt inference efficiency gap vs general GPU exceeds 10x pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Actuators confirmed >60% of humanoid material cost (over-engineering signal) pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — ≥3 non-humanoid robot platforms adopt actuator/component supply from humanoid chain pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Actuator cost per unit drops ≥30% by 2027 due to volume scaling pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Non-humanoid robotics market growth accelerates ≥20% YoY post-supply-chain unlock pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-29 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-14 — 600K vehicles lost in 2026 due to chip scarcity (UBS forecast) pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — TSMC Tainan + Arizona fabs reach volume production pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Robotaxi fleet expansion explicitly chip-constrained in public disclosures pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-23 — Grok 5 publicly launches cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic accelerates next-gen model release calendar (Claude 5 / Opus 5) cascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-29 — OpenAI catches up to Anthropic in benchmark performance on >=2 of {SWE-bench Verified, ARC-AGI, GPQA-Diamond} cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Anthropic safety / alignment incident reported during accelerated release pressure cascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: Anthropic loses pricing power; commercial deals re-priced down >10% cascade #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: Dario Amodei or Anthropic exec publicly addresses competitive-pressure release tradeoffs pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-19 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier-lab evaluation milestone — labs publicly report unsafe-eval-bypass incidents of pre-deployment models pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First credibly attributed AI-uplifted bio/cyber catastrophic-threshold incident (or absence thereof) pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — International binding-treaty-level AI safety mechanism (Politburo / G7 / UN level) ratified or near-ratified pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Anthropic releases Claude Mythos Preview (anchor model) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Anthropic ships smaller / faster Mythos-class variant (Sonnet/Haiku tier) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — General availability of Mythos beyond Project Glasswing partners cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Mythos pricing per token at or below current Opus 4.7 levels cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Open-source community reverse-engineers / replicates Mythos efficiency cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Anthropic confirms Mythos withheld for internal/government use pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic, OpenAI, or Google DeepMind disclose internal compute share for self-improvement cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier model release lags published capability by >=3 months cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Compute moat acknowledged by US/EU regulator cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issues ruling in Musk v OpenAI cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Court ruling explicitly addresses whether nonprofit donors retain enforceable rights after for-profit conversion cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Appeal filed to Ninth Circuit by losing party cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — First independent legal article or law review note cites the ruling as precedent cascade #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Cascade: State AGs (Delaware, California) update guidance on nonprofit-to-PBC conversions citing case cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Cascade: Another large AI nonprofit-to-for-profit conversion proceeds (or is blocked) citing case pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Anthropic crosses $30B ARR by April 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Analyst end-of-2026 ARR projections converge to $80-100B range cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — $200B ARR target — explicit verification or repudiation cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Anthropic stretch target: cross $100B ARR by year-end 2026 cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · partial · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic preemptive offers at $850-900B valuation reported (April 2026 — partial of $2T thesis) pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Anthropic Series H or follow-on round closes at ≥ $900B post-money pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic implied valuation reaches ≥ $1.5T (within striking distance of $2T thesis) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-04-16 — Anthropic implied valuation reaches ≥ $2T (thesis hit) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic weighs $50B round at >=$900B valuation pre #1 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Anthropic board approves the >=$900B round cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Anthropic revenue crosses OpenAI revenue (annualized run-rate) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic IPO filing or S-1 disclosed cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Frontier lab claims 'general knowledge worker' capability cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cross-function enterprise benchmark suite shows AI ≥80% on 5+ categories cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major consultancy quantifies '50%+ knowledge worker tasks automatable' cascade #4 · pending · 2027-10-01 — BLS labor productivity statistics show AI-attributable inflection cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major-party 2028 candidate openly advocates UBI as AI displacement response pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Polling shows majority of voters opposed to white-collar bailouts vs blue-collar relief cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Cascade: Means-tested AI displacement aid bill excludes high-income white-collar from relief cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Single primary outcome explicitly attributed to AI/crypto super PAC spending pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-10-16 — AI/crypto super PAC outside spending exceeds $500M cycle total cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Empirical study published showing super PAC spending shifted >=10 House outcomes cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-10 — Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chai pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — At least 3 new AI-team acqui-hires above $500M total deal value pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — FTC or DOJ closes acqui-hire merger-review loophole pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Specialized small-team AI acqui-hire crosses $5B+ headline value pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Top-50 AI researchers individually compensated >$100M/year market rate cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic Q2/Q3 2026 ARR run-rate update — sustains 10x YoY trajectory pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Anthropic IPO or $850-900B valuation round closes pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Frontier benchmark crossover — Claude tops or matches OpenAI flagship on majority of capability/coding/reasoning evals f pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Enterprise share-of-wallet reversal — Anthropic enterprise spend exceeds OpenAI enterprise spend in independent CIO surv cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-07 — First quarterly P&L disclosure for Andon Market pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Independent retail-industry ranking / press validation of Andon Market pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-23 — Andon Market still operating at 1-year anniversary cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Cascade: AI-managed retail concept replicated by other founders / chains cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Summer 2026 benchmark composite shows >=10x advance over Jan 2026 baseline pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Falsification: Summer 2026 benchmarks show <3x improvement (would be NEAR-MISS) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — 100x year claim publicly validated by >=1 independent analyst cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Independent journalism documents AI chatbot bioweapon synthesis instructions pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First documented real-world incident of AI-assisted CBRN attempt (attempted, not necessarily successful) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Regulatory response: at least one government imposes mandatory CBRN red-teaming for frontier models cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-31 — AI Incident Database adds ≥100 new incidents in three-month window pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Stanford AI Index 2026 documents 8x growth in malicious-actor AI use vs 2022 cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Deepfake-driven incidents continue to outnumber autonomous vehicle / facial recognition incidents cascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Major regulatory reporting requirement (EU AI Act incident reporting / US executive order) goes live cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Six major AI companies decline to submit voluntary transparency reports pre #5 · hit · 2025-12-31 — OpenAI / Anthropic / Google publish zero environmental-impact data pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — FMTI 2026 transparency average remains <=45/100 (no reversal) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI coding assistant adoption exceeds 80% of professional developers (Stack Overflow / GitHub) pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Autonomous coding agents (Devin / Windsurf Cascade) achieve ≥50% SWE-bench verified pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Junior developer hiring (BLS / Indeed / LinkedIn) drops ≥30% YoY for entry-level coding roles cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Global space launch market reaches $21B revenue in 2025 pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — SpaceX 2026 revenue projection $22-24B with 82% commercial market share cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Annual orbital launch attempts cross 350 globally cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First trillion-dollar space economy milestone projection (2032) cascade #3 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Starship operational: cost per kg to LEO drops below $500 cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2025-04-15 — Microsoft releases bitnet-b1.58-2B-4T on Hugging Face pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — First commercial LLM API deploys ternary weights at scale cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-16 — Frontier model trained natively in ternary precision (>50B params) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Bible-app and faith-app downloads sustain 20%+ YoY growth through 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Pew, Gallup, or Barna survey reports rising religious participation tied to AI anxiety cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Religious tech / faith-app sector raises >$500M in 2026 venture funding cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Major US denomination reports first attendance increase in 10+ years in 2026 cascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Global religion-economy aggregate market sizing reports growth above 5% in 2026 cascade #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: AI-religion or techno-spirituality movements gain >100K self-identified members pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-15 — FDA launches real-time AI-driven clinical trial pilot pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — FDA consolidates 40 systems into single platform; saves $120M/yr cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — FDA finalizes AI-in-drug-development guidance (Q2 2026) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Other federal agency follows FDA accelerated regulatory pattern cascade #3 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Modine (MOD) data-center revenue grows 119% YoY pre #5 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Eaton organic data-center sales 9%+ YoY pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Top 5 'picks-and-shovels' basket gains 3x+ from 2024 baseline cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2025-08-15 — SoftWear Automation closes $20M Series B1 led by BESTSELLER pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Third-generation T-shirt Sewbot reaches commercial availability H1 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Levi's pilots Sewbo robotic denim sewing on production line cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Full sewing automation deployed at production scale (>=100K units/year) cascade #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major apparel brand announces Asia-to-US/Europe reshoring tied to sewbots cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-16 — SpaceX Starship Mars uncrewed mission attempts 2026 launch window cascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — First peer-reviewed terraforming feasibility paper for Mars greenhouse gas warming cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-12-31 — SpaceX or government body announces formal terraforming research program cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2035-07-02 — First permanent human Mars settlement attempt (precondition for terraforming) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-24 — Meta + Microsoft 20K combined cuts cite AI as cause pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — GPT-5 (or GPT-5.5) frontier reasoning model widely deployed in enterprise pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Public corporate-collapse signal: >=2 Fortune 500 firms enter restructuring citing AI failure pre #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Cumulative 2026 AI-attributed layoffs cross 500K cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Cumulative 2026 AI-attributed layoffs reach 1.1M — Blundin specific target pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Tech sector single-month layoffs exceed 45K (March 2026 worst month in 2 years) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS reports >5% YoY decline in entry-level white-collar job postings pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Inference cost-per-token drops 10x further by end-2027 (toward electricity floor) pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Major economic-policy report attributes >10% white-collar attrition to AI pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 release confirmed pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — Quantization breakthrough — V4 reduces inference FLOPs to 27% of V3.2 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Qwen 3.6 release with sub-10B competitive frontier cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Chinese frontier model crosses ≥10T total parameters cascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Retrospective verdict on '100x leap by 2026' — likely PARTIAL cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — FP4 inference lands in mainstream open-source frameworks pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 KV cache quantization confirms architecture decoupling pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Ternary-weight production model released by major lab cascade #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Embargoed-nation AI lab demonstrates frontier capability via FP4/ternary stack cascade #3 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #4 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift 93 plotted · 46 outside x-range · click any dot for detail
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.