Timeline Fan

425 of 425 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Forked into 4 mutually-exclusive AGI branches — each lane shows the claims that hinge on that scenario.

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Top predictors
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)
050100S_AGI_FAST_2027 · prior 30% · avg shift ±4.2pp · AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09050100S_AGI_MID_2029 · prior 35% · avg shift ±3.1pp · AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path050100S_AGI_SLOW_2031 · prior 25% · avg shift ±5.0pp · AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path050100S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS · prior 10% · avg shift ±4.6pp · AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winterhistory230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis✓238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now✓240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months✓AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake✓238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)✓CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20✓AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o✓240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027✓FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna✓AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en✓242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission✓244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years✓241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation✓229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne✓IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct✓SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S✓SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil✓SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on✓232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti✓241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom✓AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026✓242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license✓233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra✓CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val✓246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers).✓238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if)✓247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston✓AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using✓IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do✓AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la✓AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c✓CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba✓247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial✓235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).✓245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE✓CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o✓246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.✓FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-✓ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin✓ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU✓INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva✓INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula✓SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f✓SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.✓INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n✓229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.✓248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.✓248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.✓ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence-✓CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to✓235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.✓SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc✓SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f✓237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca✓238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days✓232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.✓241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long✓245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed✓SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme✓248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.✓SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200✓229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.✓CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re✓CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi✓CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr✓SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate✓INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup✓INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor✓SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.✓SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying✓SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu✓SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual✓231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.✗231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.✗235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.✗244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years◐239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world◐INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol◐232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani◐236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours◐SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad◐AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey◐238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi◐231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.◐CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.◐AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree◐246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).◐247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently◐245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus◐INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn◐INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat◐246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.◐INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob◐SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se◐ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar◐INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await◐SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr◐INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive◐SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na◐SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u◐SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast◐SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10◐SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci◐CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go◐INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 —◐INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive◐SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a◐Jan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2027FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2028FebMarAprMayJuntodaypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2025-02-03 — Hyperscaler announces voluntary capability moratorium or red-linepre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Open-source startup releases capability hyperscaler refused to shippre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Chinese / non-US lab releases model with capability US labs withheldpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal/state enforcement action against startup for unsafe AI deploymentcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2025-02-03 — Hyperscaler announces voluntary capability moratorium or red-linepre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Open-source startup releases capability hyperscaler refused to shippre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Chinese / non-US lab releases model with capability US labs withheldpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal/state enforcement action against startup for unsafe AI deploymentcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2025-02-03 — Hyperscaler announces voluntary capability moratorium or red-linepre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Open-source startup releases capability hyperscaler refused to shippre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Chinese / non-US lab releases model with capability US labs withheldpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal/state enforcement action against startup for unsafe AI deploymentcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2025-02-03 — Hyperscaler announces voluntary capability moratorium or red-linepre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Open-source startup releases capability hyperscaler refused to shippre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Chinese / non-US lab releases model with capability US labs withheldpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal/state enforcement action against startup for unsafe AI deploymentcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-17 — Kevin Weil departs OpenAI — original 100-Nobels champion exits, OpenAI for Science decentralizedpre #5 · pending · 2026-10-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI for Science 'Prism' general availability or successor product launchpre #3 · pending · 2027-04-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First peer-reviewed Nobel-class result published with explicit AI co-attributionpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-30 — Nobel ceremony explicitly cites AI partnership in award rationalepre #6 · pending · 2026-11-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Pure-play AI vendor (Cohere/Mistral/Perplexity) revenue stays <$35B aggregate 2026pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Enterprise AI revenue exceeds consumer AI revenue 3:1 across hyperscalerspre #3 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI capex-to-revenue ratio compresses or hyperscaler stock multiple resetspre #1 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-30 — PwC ChatGPT Enterprise reseller volume scales as Big-4 AI revenue linepre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Big-4 + MBB collective AI investment crosses $15B cumulativepre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — OpenAI consulting division pressures Big-4 advisory pricingpre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Accenture AI Refinery client count crosses 5,000 enterprisescascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Big-4 advisory revenue grows >=20% YoY driven by AI transformation contractscascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-15 — Big Four publicly disclose AI agent doing audit work (workpaper generation / variance analysis)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cumulative Big Four audit-tech headcount reduction >=50% from 2024 baselinepre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — PCAOB or SEC publishes guidance on AI-assisted audit reliancecascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-11 — Anthropic Opus 4.6+ discloses 500+ zero-days in OSS librariescascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — OSSF/CNCF publishes formal AI-SLOP best practices for OSS maintainerscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Open source vulnerabilities exceed 1,000 per codebase averagecascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major OSS project (Linux kernel/OpenSSL/Python) declares maintainer crisiscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-11 — Anthropic Opus 4.6+ discloses 500+ zero-days in OSS librariescascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — OSSF/CNCF publishes formal AI-SLOP best practices for OSS maintainerscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Open source vulnerabilities exceed 1,000 per codebase averagecascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major OSS project (Linux kernel/OpenSSL/Python) declares maintainer crisiscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-11 — Anthropic Opus 4.6+ discloses 500+ zero-days in OSS librariescascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — OSSF/CNCF publishes formal AI-SLOP best practices for OSS maintainerscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Open source vulnerabilities exceed 1,000 per codebase averagecascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major OSS project (Linux kernel/OpenSSL/Python) declares maintainer crisiscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-11 — Anthropic Opus 4.6+ discloses 500+ zero-days in OSS librariescascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — OSSF/CNCF publishes formal AI-SLOP best practices for OSS maintainerscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Open source vulnerabilities exceed 1,000 per codebase averagecascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major OSS project (Linux kernel/OpenSSL/Python) declares maintainer crisiscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Giving Pledge attrition continues — second AI-era billionaire publicly exitspre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI founder net worth crosses $200B (Altman/Huang/Musk-class)pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Aggregate AI-founder philanthropic commitments cross $100Bcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-15 — World Bank WDR 2026 'AI for Development' published with poverty-impact frameworkpre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First country deploys AI-driven cash-transfer or geospatial-targeting program at scale (>5M beneficiaries)pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Global extreme poverty rate drops below 9.5% per World Bank PovcalNet updatepre #3 · pending · 2027-11-16 — AI-tool penetration in low-income agricultural extension services exceeds 25%pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Sub-Saharan Africa poverty rate stagnant or rising despite AI rolloutpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If no >5M-beneficiary AI poverty program launches by end-2027, 'chance of fixing' becomes generouscascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — U.S. labor productivity growth turns positive ≥2% YoYcascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Major economic forecaster (IMF, OECD, World Bank) raises GDP forecast citing AIcascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — S&P 500 earnings growth exceeds 15% YoYcascade #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI-attributable contribution to GDP growth quantified by economistspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Number of S&P 500 CEOs publicly citing AI as reason for own/peer departure crosses 10pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Conference Board / WEF report explicitly ranks CEO role as latest-to-automatepre #3 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Mid/junior management automation rate exceeds CEO automation rate in BLS or McKinsey studypre #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — First public-listed company appoints AI as named co-CEO or 'AI CEO' rolepre #1 · pending · 2027-10-31 — If middle-management displacement >25% but CEO turnover normal by Q4 2027, claim hits earlycascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AlphaFold/Isomorphic-style AI lab partnership produces clinical Phase-I trial drugpre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-discovered superconductor material independently verifiedpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier lab discloses >=$10B revenue from a non-chat product (drug discovery / materials / robotics)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI fusion-control breakthrough: ITER-class plasma stability gain attributed to RLpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI's IMO-gold-medal model remains unreleased months after milestonepre #4 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier lab publicly admits internal-deployment-only model with significant capability gap vs released modelscascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI R&D acceleration measurable: lab discloses >=20% productivity gain from internal model usecascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Public-vs-internal capability gap formally widens to >=6 months on a major benchmarkcascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Government / regulator demands disclosure of internal-deployed capabilitiespre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI's IMO-gold-medal model remains unreleased months after milestonepre #4 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier lab publicly admits internal-deployment-only model with significant capability gap vs released modelscascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI R&D acceleration measurable: lab discloses >=20% productivity gain from internal model usecascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Public-vs-internal capability gap formally widens to >=6 months on a major benchmarkcascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Government / regulator demands disclosure of internal-deployed capabilitiespre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI's IMO-gold-medal model remains unreleased months after milestonepre #4 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier lab publicly admits internal-deployment-only model with significant capability gap vs released modelscascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI R&D acceleration measurable: lab discloses >=20% productivity gain from internal model usecascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Public-vs-internal capability gap formally widens to >=6 months on a major benchmarkcascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Government / regulator demands disclosure of internal-deployed capabilitiespre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI's IMO-gold-medal model remains unreleased months after milestonepre #4 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier lab publicly admits internal-deployment-only model with significant capability gap vs released modelscascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI R&D acceleration measurable: lab discloses >=20% productivity gain from internal model usecascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Public-vs-internal capability gap formally widens to >=6 months on a major benchmarkcascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Government / regulator demands disclosure of internal-deployed capabilitiespre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Epoch AI confirms exhaustion of high-quality public text corpuspre #5 · pending · 2027-05-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Frontier labs continue licensing/scraping fresh human data through 2027+pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Pure synthetic-data pre-training run produces frontier-class modelpre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Epoch AI confirms exhaustion of high-quality public text corpuspre #5 · pending · 2027-05-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Frontier labs continue licensing/scraping fresh human data through 2027+pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Pure synthetic-data pre-training run produces frontier-class modelpre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Epoch AI confirms exhaustion of high-quality public text corpuspre #5 · pending · 2027-05-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Frontier labs continue licensing/scraping fresh human data through 2027+pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Pure synthetic-data pre-training run produces frontier-class modelpre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Epoch AI confirms exhaustion of high-quality public text corpuspre #5 · pending · 2027-05-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Frontier labs continue licensing/scraping fresh human data through 2027+pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Pure synthetic-data pre-training run produces frontier-class modelpre #6 · hit · 2026-03-01 — GPT-OSS-120B running at 3,000 tokens/sec on Cerebraspre #5 · pending · 2026-06-15 — AWS-Cerebras inference cloud collaboration GApre #4 · pending · 2026-07-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — ChatGPT user-facing 1,000+ tok/s mode rolloutpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-29 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Scenario fires: Major-country AI pause beginning 2026pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Federal AI moratorium proposed and rejected/diluted in US Congresspre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Voluntary frontier-lab pause triggers competitor outpacing on benchmarkspre #1 · pending · 2027-11-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Scenario fires: Major-country AI pause beginning 2026pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Federal AI moratorium proposed and rejected/diluted in US Congresspre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Voluntary frontier-lab pause triggers competitor outpacing on benchmarkspre #1 · pending · 2027-11-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Scenario fires: Major-country AI pause beginning 2026pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Federal AI moratorium proposed and rejected/diluted in US Congresspre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Voluntary frontier-lab pause triggers competitor outpacing on benchmarkspre #1 · pending · 2027-11-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Scenario fires: Major-country AI pause beginning 2026pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Federal AI moratorium proposed and rejected/diluted in US Congresspre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Voluntary frontier-lab pause triggers competitor outpacing on benchmarkspre #1 · pending · 2027-11-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Goldman Sachs / BLS update to AI-displacement model showing 25% of work hours automatedpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Nvidia-style productivity case study replicates — second Fortune-100 company shows revenue/headcount decouplingpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — BLS Business Formation Statistics show ≥ 5x acceleration in new business applications (gates the "5x more companies" clacascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — US unemployment rate remains within ±1pp of pre-AI baseline through end of target window (employment-flat check)cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-27 — ICLR 2026 Workshop on AI with Recursive Self-Improvement convened in Rio (community legitimization)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-15 — AlphaEvolve-class system autonomously discovers novel SOTA algorithm in published paperpre #2 · pending · 2026-10-16 — OpenAI ships intern-level AI research agent (publicly demonstrated or deployed)pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier lab "effective workforce" disclosure shows >10x ratio of AI agents to human researcherscascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Anthropic / OpenAI public claim of "fully automated AI research" pipelinecascade #3 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintcascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-27 — ICLR 2026 Workshop on AI with Recursive Self-Improvement convened in Rio (community legitimization)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-15 — AlphaEvolve-class system autonomously discovers novel SOTA algorithm in published paperpre #2 · pending · 2026-10-16 — OpenAI ships intern-level AI research agent (publicly demonstrated or deployed)pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier lab "effective workforce" disclosure shows >10x ratio of AI agents to human researcherscascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Anthropic / OpenAI public claim of "fully automated AI research" pipelinecascade #3 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintcascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Musk publicly affirms hard takeoff thesis at Abundance Summit 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Frontier-lab leader publicly endorses recursive self-improvement timeline by mid-2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Per-week breakthrough cadence visible in independent metricscascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First publicly disclosed AI system that materially designs its successor model architecturecascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Hard-takeoff thesis enters mainstream macro discoursecascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.cascade #5 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 yearspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.pre #1 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintcascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-02-22 — Sam Altman publicly states AGI 'feels close' or equivalentpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI declares 'AI research intern' capability internally achievedpre #3 · pending · 2026-10-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier model exceeds human PhD-expert performance on FrontierMath benchmarkcascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI system surpasses median-IQ humans across composite benchmarks (>=120 IQ-equivalent)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Independent expert panel declares one major capability domain 'incomprehensibly' beyond top humanpre #6 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-discovered longevity candidate enters Phase I clinical trialpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Isomorphic Labs / Insilico Medicine announces AI-designed clinical candidatepre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI lab claims demonstrable solution to a major scientific problem (publicly verified)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — First country approves AI-designed gene therapy or longevity interventionpre #6 · pending · 2026-08-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier AI exceeds aggregate human performance on broad benchmark suitepre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-driven compute consumption reaches >1% of global electricitypre #2 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Independent forecaster declares humans 'minority of intelligence' framing acceptedpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla repurposes Fremont Model S/X line for Optimus productionpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Optimus units perform measurable factory tasks at Tesla plantspre #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Tesla output per employee grows ≥30% YoYpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Tesla's labor productivity outpaces auto-industry peers by ≥2xcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-02-01 — Major government official publicly proposes UBI to offset AI displacementpre #5 · pending · 2026-08-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First production-scale humanoid robot fleet (>10K units) deployed commerciallypre #2 · pending · 2027-03-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Per-unit cost of humanoid robot drops below $20Kpre #6 · pending · 2026-10-15 — Stanford AI Index / similar tracker reports power/energy as primary AI scaling constraintpre #5 · pending · 2026-11-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Hyperscaler signs >=1GW nuclear/SMR PPA explicitly framed as 'AI fuel'pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major frontier lab publishes paper framing AI optimization in compute/energy units (vs $)pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI agent autonomously transacts in non-USD compute resource (token-for-compute, GPU-hour swap)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: Tokenized compute marketplace (Akash, io.net, Render) hits $1B annualized GMVpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #4 · pending · 2026-09-30 — SpaceX FCC application for million-satellite orbital data-center constellation acknowledged / advancedpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Google CEO restates AI data centers in space target for 2027 with concrete partner / launch slotpre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Peer-reviewed Dyson-swarm / photovoltaic-Dyson-sphere paper published, cited in mainstream tech presspre #1 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Starcloud / orbital compute reaches ≥100kW deployed solar power (sun-energy capture milestone)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Cumulative orbital compute power exceeds 1 MW across operatorscascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-07-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Hyperscalers + frontier labs commit >=$1T cumulative AI capex through 2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Compute aggregate exceeds human-brain-equivalent FLOPS across deployed AI fleetpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First permanent off-Earth compute installation (lunar / Starlink-attached) announcedcascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Starlink-attached compute / SpaceX 'Starcloud' commercial service goes livecascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Aggregate AI inference operations exceed measurable human cognitive operations per daypre #6 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Published AI capability progress chart shows visible second S-curve onset (reasoning models)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — RL-from-verifiable-reward / reasoning S-curve produces measurable benchmark step-uppre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Public capability-progress narrative shifts from 'chinchilla scaling' to 'overlapping curves'cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Diffusion / world-model-based architecture launches as third S-curvepre #6 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Published AI capability progress chart shows visible second S-curve onset (reasoning models)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — RL-from-verifiable-reward / reasoning S-curve produces measurable benchmark step-uppre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Public capability-progress narrative shifts from 'chinchilla scaling' to 'overlapping curves'cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Diffusion / world-model-based architecture launches as third S-curvepre #6 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Published AI capability progress chart shows visible second S-curve onset (reasoning models)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — RL-from-verifiable-reward / reasoning S-curve produces measurable benchmark step-uppre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Public capability-progress narrative shifts from 'chinchilla scaling' to 'overlapping curves'cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Diffusion / world-model-based architecture launches as third S-curvepre #6 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Published AI capability progress chart shows visible second S-curve onset (reasoning models)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — RL-from-verifiable-reward / reasoning S-curve produces measurable benchmark step-uppre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Public capability-progress narrative shifts from 'chinchilla scaling' to 'overlapping curves'cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Diffusion / world-model-based architecture launches as third S-curvepre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Mamba-3 publication validates active progress on post-transformer SSM linepre #5 · pending · 2026-07-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI Q1 next-year model releases reference 5.2-architecture gains (Altman roadmap commitment)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Independent benchmark verification: novel architecture matches or beats transformer SOTA at matched computecascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Transformer-LSTM-magnitude leap consensus emerges (≥ 3 frontier labs adopt or replicate the new architecture)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Medvi reaches $401M revenue Year 1 with effective headcount of 2 — first credible solo-unicorn proof pointpre #5 · pending · 2026-10-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First publicly named 1-person company at $1B+ valuationpre #2 · pending · 2027-09-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Cohort scale — at least 5 named one-person (or <=5 FTE) companies cross $100M revenuecascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-15 — First trillion-dollar valuation for a category-defining solo-founder / micro-team AI companypre #6 · pending · 2026-10-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Groq / Cerebras / Etched / SambaNova reach >5% combined inference market sharepre #4 · pending · 2027-04-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-01 — First production frontier model trained on a non-transformer architecture (Mamba/SSM/Diffusion-LM/Mixture-of-Recursions pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — ASIC purpose-built for non-transformer post-attention architecture announced by major fab partner (TSMC/Samsung/Intel Focascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — NVIDIA loses >=5 percentage points of AI training GPU share in a quarterpre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier model demonstrates sustained pro-social behavior in red-team evaluationspre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Wisdom benchmark (e.g., wise-action selection at moral dilemmas) introduced and adoptedpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-05 — Multi-lab alignment compact: top 5 labs publish joint statement on values-aligned AGIpre #2 · pending · 2027-11-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: First clinical study showing AI mental-health agent improves wellbeing vs human therapistscascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Cascade: Major religious or philosophical institution publicly endorses 'AI as moral peer'pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Intel 14A process selection finalizedpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Tesla AI5 small-batch (engineering sample) productionpre #2 · pending · 2026-11-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First Terafab module groundbreaking / construction startcascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — AI5 volume production begins (initial 100k WSPM run-rate)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Path to 1M WSPM / 70% TSMC scale becomes credible (or slips publicly)pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-14 — DOE Genesis or equivalent national-AI-for-science program operationalpre #4 · pending · 2027-04-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Nobel Prize awarded to AI-led research workflowpre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Time-to-discovery in major journal cohort drops measurablypre #6 · pending · 2026-11-14 — USPTO issues revised AI-assisted inventorship guidancepre #5 · pending · 2026-11-26 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Court ruling extends or limits DABUS precedent on AI inventorshippre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-assisted patent filings exceed 50% of new applications in software/biotechpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Public report of AI generating 1M+ candidate inventions in single domainpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 released as open-source weightspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Chinese open-weight downloads exceed 1B cumulativecascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Chinese model market share in commercial deployments exceeds 30%cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 released as open-source weightspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Chinese open-weight downloads exceed 1B cumulativecascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Chinese model market share in commercial deployments exceeds 30%cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 released as open-source weightspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Chinese open-weight downloads exceed 1B cumulativecascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Chinese model market share in commercial deployments exceeds 30%cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 released as open-source weightspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Chinese open-weight downloads exceed 1B cumulativecascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Chinese model market share in commercial deployments exceeds 30%cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-27 — DeepSeek V4 not competitive with frontier US modelspre #2 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — China's AI+ initiative targets 90% sector integrationcascade #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI/Anthropic/Google maintain compute-intensive frontier model focuscascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — China expands open-weight model leadership globallycascade #4 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintcascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-27 — DeepSeek V4 not competitive with frontier US modelspre #2 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — China's AI+ initiative targets 90% sector integrationcascade #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI/Anthropic/Google maintain compute-intensive frontier model focuscascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — China expands open-weight model leadership globallycascade #4 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintcascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-27 — DeepSeek V4 not competitive with frontier US modelspre #2 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — China's AI+ initiative targets 90% sector integrationcascade #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI/Anthropic/Google maintain compute-intensive frontier model focuscascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — China expands open-weight model leadership globallycascade #4 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintcascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-27 — DeepSeek V4 not competitive with frontier US modelspre #2 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — China's AI+ initiative targets 90% sector integrationcascade #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI/Anthropic/Google maintain compute-intensive frontier model focuscascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — China expands open-weight model leadership globallycascade #4 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintcascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-21 — Musk announces Terafab semiconductor fab (Tesla/xAI/SpaceX joint)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Intel publicly joins Terafab as foundry-manufacturing partnerpre #4 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Terafab groundbreaking / construction permit filedcascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — First Terafab tool installation / wafer test runcascade #2 · pending · 2031-07-02 — Terafab production reaches 100k wafer-starts/month (initial target)cascade #3 · pending · 2033-12-31 — Cascade: Terafab reaches 70% of TSMC output (~1M wspm) — Diamandis claimpre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Anthropic Economic Index update shows >25% of measurable work hours AI-touchedpre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Goldman Sachs / McKinsey publishes update confirming 25% automatable-work-hours estimatepre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First major sector reports >40% of work-hours mediated by AI toolspre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Aggregate enterprise AI-tool seat-count exceeds 100M paid users in USpre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — BLS time-use survey shows measurable shift of work-hours from manual tasks to AI-supervisory taskspre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If aggregate AI seat count plateaus below 50M by end-2027, 25% thesis on track to misscascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Klarna reverses AI layoffs, rebuilds human service capacitypre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Gartner predicts 50% of AI-driven layoffs reverse by 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — S&P 500 firm publicly confirms running with <=25% historical headcountcascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-11-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First gigawatt-scale AI-purpose-built datacenter campus operationalpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First nuclear reactor restart explicitly contracted for AI datacenter (Three Mile Island/Microsoft style)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — AI-recommended industrial process redesign deployed at Fortune 500 plant scalepre #1 · pending · 2027-11-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — US electricity production grows >10% YoY explicitly tied to AI demandpre #6 · pending · 2026-07-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Tesla 2026 capex officially raised to $25B+ (board / earnings disclosure aligning with Terafab funding)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Terafab pilot facility produces first AI5 chips (small-batch production)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cumulative Terafab project commitments cross $150B (matching prediction's lower-bound total buildout)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — BCG: 'AI Will Reshape More Jobs Than It Replaces' publishedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Goldman Sachs: AI subtracts 16K jobs/month, +0.1pp unemploymentpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Aggregate US employment grows YoY despite AI deployment in 2026-2027pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Entry-level postings fall to <35% of all job postingscascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Entry-level white-collar unemployment in 20-30 age cohort stops risingpre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — US unemployment rate stabilizes or declines despite AI rolloutpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Major reskilling-program scale-up by federal/state governments tied to AI displacementpre #3 · pending · 2027-10-30 — BLS reports first quarter where AI-related new occupations exceed displacementspre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If unemployment rises above Amodei 10-20% scenario by end-2027, society-adjustment thesis failspre #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — First peer-reviewed empirical study confirms net job creation in AI-augmented occupationscascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Federal AI-specific worker support legislation introduced with bipartisan co-sponsorshippre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal Reserve Beige Book or FOMC statement formally cites AI labor displacement as macroeconomic concernpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — G7 leaders' summit communique includes substantive AI labor-market adjustment provisionpre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — BLS or OECD reports AI-attributed unemployment rate above 4% in any G7 economypre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Major US state passes AI-displacement-specific UI extension, retraining program, or basic income statutecascade #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Tier-1 social-unrest event (sustained protest, strike, or political movement) explicitly attributed to AI displacementcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Enterprise AI 'reimagine' threshold: >=50% of Fortune 500 publish AI-first strategypre #3 · pending · 2027-10-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-31 — S&P 500 IT spend on AI tooling exceeds 25% of total IT budgetpre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: AI-native startups capture >=20% of new B2B SaaS market sharecascade #1 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Cascade: BLS labor data shows >=10% headcount reduction in 'traditional knowledge work' categoriespre #6 · hit · 2026-02-12 — Engineered PETase enzyme paper (Bhattacharya et al.) published in FEBS Journal — highly active polyester degradationpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — PETase/MHETase variant with gut-compatible pH/temperature window (pH 1-7, 37C) demonstratedpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First published in-vivo (animal model) study of orally-delivered plastic-degrading enzyme on microplastic absorptioncascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Supplement company / startup announces clinical work toward microplastic-degrading oral productpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Medvi proves micro-team unicorn template ($401M Y1 revenue, $1.8B run-rate, ~2 FTE)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cohort accumulation — at least 10 named micro-team (<=5 FTE) companies cross $50M ARRpre #3 · pending · 2027-04-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cohort scaling — 100+ named micro-team companies cross $10M ARR (millions-of-small-businesses signal)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Power-law tail formalized — at least 1 micro-team company crosses $10B valuation, multiple at $1Bpre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Alex Finn / IT Lounge HIM platform demonstrates 5-agent autonomous corppre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Cumulative HIM-generated revenue surpasses $1Mcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Second autonomous-corp framework launches (beyond HIM)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major incumbent (Salesforce, Microsoft, ServiceNow) launches autonomous-corp suitepre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Alex Finn / IT Lounge HIM platform demonstrates 5-agent autonomous corppre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Cumulative HIM-generated revenue surpasses $1Mcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Second autonomous-corp framework launches (beyond HIM)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major incumbent (Salesforce, Microsoft, ServiceNow) launches autonomous-corp suitepre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Alex Finn / IT Lounge HIM platform demonstrates 5-agent autonomous corppre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Cumulative HIM-generated revenue surpasses $1Mcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Second autonomous-corp framework launches (beyond HIM)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major incumbent (Salesforce, Microsoft, ServiceNow) launches autonomous-corp suitepre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Alex Finn / IT Lounge HIM platform demonstrates 5-agent autonomous corppre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Cumulative HIM-generated revenue surpasses $1Mcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Second autonomous-corp framework launches (beyond HIM)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major incumbent (Salesforce, Microsoft, ServiceNow) launches autonomous-corp suitepre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-18 — Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection and cybersecurity threats in real time.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-22 — AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing.cascade #3 · pending · 2029-12-10 — Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-15 — $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk)cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Anthropic ARR exceeds $30B annualized run-ratepre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier model achieves expert-level performance on broad professional certification benchmarkpre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI fully automates >=80% of typical software-engineering tasks at Fortune 500cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #2 · pending · 2030-11-04 — Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global productioncascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Anthropic ARR exceeds $30B annualized run-ratepre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier model achieves expert-level performance on broad professional certification benchmarkpre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI fully automates >=80% of typical software-engineering tasks at Fortune 500cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #2 · pending · 2030-11-04 — Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global productioncascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Anthropic ARR exceeds $30B annualized run-ratepre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier model achieves expert-level performance on broad professional certification benchmarkpre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI fully automates >=80% of typical software-engineering tasks at Fortune 500cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #2 · pending · 2030-11-04 — Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global productioncascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Anthropic ARR exceeds $30B annualized run-ratepre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier model achieves expert-level performance on broad professional certification benchmarkpre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI fully automates >=80% of typical software-engineering tasks at Fortune 500cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #2 · pending · 2030-11-04 — Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global productioncascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2027-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Amodei walks back trillion claim citing capital constraintspre #4 · pending · 2027-04-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Free cash flow positive by 2027pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Anthropic ARR reaches $1T+ run-rate (resolution)pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Amodei walks back trillion claim citing capital constraintspre #4 · pending · 2027-04-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Free cash flow positive by 2027pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Anthropic ARR reaches $1T+ run-rate (resolution)pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Amodei walks back trillion claim citing capital constraintspre #4 · pending · 2027-04-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Free cash flow positive by 2027pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Anthropic ARR reaches $1T+ run-rate (resolution)pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Amodei walks back trillion claim citing capital constraintspre #4 · pending · 2027-04-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Free cash flow positive by 2027pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Anthropic ARR reaches $1T+ run-rate (resolution)pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2024-09-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2025-05-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-01-31 — Test-time compute / reasoning OOM unlocked via o1, o3, R1pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Aschenbrenner 1GW per cluster prediction validated by 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier model demonstrates 1 full OOM effective compute over GPT-4cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Algorithmic efficiency gains tracked at 0.5+ OOM/year through 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Full automated AI researcher milestone — autonomous research agentpre #6 · overdue · 2024-09-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2025-05-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-01-31 — Test-time compute / reasoning OOM unlocked via o1, o3, R1pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Aschenbrenner 1GW per cluster prediction validated by 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier model demonstrates 1 full OOM effective compute over GPT-4cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Algorithmic efficiency gains tracked at 0.5+ OOM/year through 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Full automated AI researcher milestone — autonomous research agentpre #6 · overdue · 2024-09-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2025-05-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-01-31 — Test-time compute / reasoning OOM unlocked via o1, o3, R1pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Aschenbrenner 1GW per cluster prediction validated by 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier model demonstrates 1 full OOM effective compute over GPT-4cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Algorithmic efficiency gains tracked at 0.5+ OOM/year through 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Full automated AI researcher milestone — autonomous research agentpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-24 — Meta + Microsoft 20K combined cuts cite AI as causepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — GPT-5 (or GPT-5.5) frontier reasoning model widely deployed in enterprisepre #4 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Public corporate-collapse signal: >=2 Fortune 500 firms enter restructuring citing AI failurepre #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Cumulative 2026 AI-attributed layoffs cross 500Kcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Cumulative 2026 AI-attributed layoffs reach 1.1M — Blundin specific targetpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-24 — Meta + Microsoft 20K combined cuts cite AI as causepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — GPT-5 (or GPT-5.5) frontier reasoning model widely deployed in enterprisepre #4 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Public corporate-collapse signal: >=2 Fortune 500 firms enter restructuring citing AI failurepre #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Cumulative 2026 AI-attributed layoffs cross 500Kcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Cumulative 2026 AI-attributed layoffs reach 1.1M — Blundin specific targettarget window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift
91 plotted across 4 branches · 149 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to BBAI.

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)
AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.