Timeline Fan

54 of 54 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Forked into 4 mutually-exclusive Humanoid deployment branches — each lane shows the claims that hinge on that scenario.

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Top predictors
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)
050100S_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026 · prior 40% · avg shift ±5.1pp · Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026050100S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 · prior 50% · avg shift ±5.3pp · Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028050100S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 · prior 20% · avg shift ±10.6pp · Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030050100S_HUMANOID_MASS_2033 · prior 10% · avg shift ±5.2pp · Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033history230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis✓238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now✓240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months✓AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake✓238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)✓CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20✓AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o✓240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027✓FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna✓AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en✓242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission✓244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years✓241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation✓229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne✓IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct✓SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S✓SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil✓SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on✓232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti✓241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom✓AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026✓242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license✓233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra✓CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val✓246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers).✓238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if)✓247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston✓AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using✓IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do✓AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la✓AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c✓CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba✓247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial✓235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).✓245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE✓CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o✓246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.✓FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-✓ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin✓ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU✓INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva✓INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula✓SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f✓SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.✓INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n✓229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.✓248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.✓248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.✓ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence-✓CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to✓235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.✓SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc✓SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f✓237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca✓238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days✓232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.✓241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long✓245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed✓SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme✓248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.✓SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200✓229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.✓CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re✓CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi✓CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr✓SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate✓INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup✓INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor✓SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.✓SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying✓SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu✓SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual✓231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.✗231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.✗235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.✗244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years◐239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world◐INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol◐232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani◐236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours◐SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad◐AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey◐238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi◐231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.◐CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.◐AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree◐246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).◐247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently◐245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus◐INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn◐INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat◐246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.◐INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob◐SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se◐ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar◐INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await◐SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr◐INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive◐SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na◐SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u◐SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast◐SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10◐SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci◐CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go◐INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 —◐INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight◐INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive◐SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a◐Jan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2027FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2028FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2029FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2030FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2031FebMarAprMayJuntodaypre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-17 — Figure publicly demonstrates a robot performing assembly task on BotQ linepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Figure announces new funding round or BotQ-specific partnerpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — First Figure robot officially deployed at BotQ in production rolecascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — BotQ cumulative production count disclosed (≥100 units)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Customer deployment count increases post-BotQ rampcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timepre #6 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Figure announces second major US enterprise customerpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour ratepre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Figure 03 commercial deployment with BMW Spartanburg confirmedcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Figure 03 unit shipments exceed 1,000 units across customers in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Figure achieves 30-min production cadence in Baku facilitycascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorpre #6 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Figure announces second major US enterprise customerpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour ratepre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Figure 03 commercial deployment with BMW Spartanburg confirmedcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Figure 03 unit shipments exceed 1,000 units across customers in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Figure achieves 30-min production cadence in Baku facilitycascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorpre #6 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Figure announces second major US enterprise customerpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour ratepre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Figure 03 commercial deployment with BMW Spartanburg confirmedcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Figure 03 unit shipments exceed 1,000 units across customers in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Figure achieves 30-min production cadence in Baku facilitycascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorpre #6 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Figure announces second major US enterprise customerpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour ratepre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Figure 03 commercial deployment with BMW Spartanburg confirmedcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Figure 03 unit shipments exceed 1,000 units across customers in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Figure achieves 30-min production cadence in Baku facilitycascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorpre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — First sub-scale humanoid maker shuts down or absorbs into larger playerpre #5 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Top 3 humanoid players capture >70% of commercial deployment volumepre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Chinese humanoid players (Unitree, UBTech, Xiaomi) carve geographic moatpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Industry settles to <=6 global players by 2028 endpre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — First sub-scale humanoid maker shuts down or absorbs into larger playerpre #5 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Top 3 humanoid players capture >70% of commercial deployment volumepre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Chinese humanoid players (Unitree, UBTech, Xiaomi) carve geographic moatpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Industry settles to <=6 global players by 2028 endpre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — First sub-scale humanoid maker shuts down or absorbs into larger playerpre #5 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Top 3 humanoid players capture >70% of commercial deployment volumepre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Chinese humanoid players (Unitree, UBTech, Xiaomi) carve geographic moatpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Industry settles to <=6 global players by 2028 endpre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — First sub-scale humanoid maker shuts down or absorbs into larger playerpre #5 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Top 3 humanoid players capture >70% of commercial deployment volumepre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Chinese humanoid players (Unitree, UBTech, Xiaomi) carve geographic moatpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Industry settles to <=6 global players by 2028 endpre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Google DeepMind ships robotic foundation model with major-OEM partnershippre #5 · pending · 2026-10-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Apple humanoid/tabletop robot product launch announcedpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Microsoft formally enters humanoid robotics (acquisition or platform)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-01 — ≥5 Mag-7 companies have material humanoid exposure by end-2027pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Google DeepMind ships robotic foundation model with major-OEM partnershippre #5 · pending · 2026-10-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Apple humanoid/tabletop robot product launch announcedpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Microsoft formally enters humanoid robotics (acquisition or platform)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-01 — ≥5 Mag-7 companies have material humanoid exposure by end-2027pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Google DeepMind ships robotic foundation model with major-OEM partnershippre #5 · pending · 2026-10-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Apple humanoid/tabletop robot product launch announcedpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Microsoft formally enters humanoid robotics (acquisition or platform)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-01 — ≥5 Mag-7 companies have material humanoid exposure by end-2027pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Figure cumulative production crosses 1,000 robotspre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BotQ first-gen line annualized capacity reaches 12,000 robots/yearpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Baku BotQ-2 facility broken ground / construction announcedpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-01 — Cumulative Figure production reaches 100,000 over 4-year horizoncascade #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Millions of robots NOT achieved by 2028-11-30pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Figure BotQ scales to ~12,000 robots/year capacitypre #5 · pending · 2027-02-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Figure shifts from 'thousands' to 'tens of thousands' annual productionpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First commercial customer reaches 1,000-unit deploymentpre #2 · pending · 2027-07-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Figure announces second BotQ-style facility / 100K-unit scale-upcascade #1 · pending · 2028-05-31 — Figure reaches 'hundreds of thousands' annual run ratepre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Figure BotQ scales to ~12,000 robots/year capacitypre #5 · pending · 2027-02-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Figure shifts from 'thousands' to 'tens of thousands' annual productionpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First commercial customer reaches 1,000-unit deploymentpre #2 · pending · 2027-07-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Figure announces second BotQ-style facility / 100K-unit scale-upcascade #1 · pending · 2028-05-31 — Figure reaches 'hundreds of thousands' annual run ratepre #6 · pending · 2027-02-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Tesla Optimus reaches sub-$30K production cost (mass scale)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-08-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Total humanoid units shipped globally crosses 100K cumulativecascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Humanoid robot priced at $10K (low end of prediction range)pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Tesla Optimus reaches sub-$30K production cost (mass scale)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-08-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Total humanoid units shipped globally crosses 100K cumulativecascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Humanoid robot priced at $10K (low end of prediction range)pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Tesla Optimus reaches sub-$30K production cost (mass scale)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-08-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Total humanoid units shipped globally crosses 100K cumulativecascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Humanoid robot priced at $10K (low end of prediction range)pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Tesla Optimus reaches sub-$30K production cost (mass scale)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-08-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Total humanoid units shipped globally crosses 100K cumulativecascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Humanoid robot priced at $10K (low end of prediction range)pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BMW / Mercedes / Hyundai / Amazon publicly confirm humanoid replacement of legacy non-humanoid robots in productionpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Mining / construction / agriculture continue specialized non-humanoid robotics scale-up (counter-evidence)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Figure BotQ ramp + Optimus + Unitree combined annual humanoid output exceeds 200K unitspre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Form-factor consensus narrative shift: Wall Street / IFR / McKinsey adopt 'humanoid-first' defaultcascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Humanoid robots become >50% of total annual industrial-robot shipment growthpre #6 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BMW / Mercedes / Hyundai / Amazon publicly confirm humanoid replacement of legacy non-humanoid robots in productionpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Mining / construction / agriculture continue specialized non-humanoid robotics scale-up (counter-evidence)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Figure BotQ ramp + Optimus + Unitree combined annual humanoid output exceeds 200K unitspre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Form-factor consensus narrative shift: Wall Street / IFR / McKinsey adopt 'humanoid-first' defaultcascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Humanoid robots become >50% of total annual industrial-robot shipment growthpre #6 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Figure 03 alpha-home pilot announcement (named customer or geographic pilot)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Figure 03 production rate at 1/hour or highercascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Figure publishes Helix unseen-environment benchmark (zero-shot home tasks)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Second customer for Figure beyond BMW (commercial or consumer)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Human intervention rate disclosed at <=1 per day on home taskscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Figure BotQ production line ramps to 12,000 units/year capacitypre #2 · pending · 2026-10-30 — First Figure 03 unit ships to non-employee paying alpha customer (home)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Figure publishes home-deployment intervention rate / autonomy benchmarkcascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: Figure achieves >=100 home alpha deployments by EOY 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #3 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Figure BotQ production line ramps to 12,000 units/year capacitypre #2 · pending · 2026-10-30 — First Figure 03 unit ships to non-employee paying alpha customer (home)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Figure publishes home-deployment intervention rate / autonomy benchmarkcascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: Figure achieves >=100 home alpha deployments by EOY 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #3 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Second major industrial customer beyond BMW deploys Figure 03pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Figure announces consumer/home alpha pilot programpre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Figure 03 reaches BotQ 12K/year throughput milestonepre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Figure demonstrates unsupervised multi-day in-home autonomypre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First paying retail customer takes delivery of Figure robot in private homecascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #3 · pending · 2034-07-11 — Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environmentscascade #4 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #5 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Second major industrial customer beyond BMW deploys Figure 03pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Figure announces consumer/home alpha pilot programpre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Figure 03 reaches BotQ 12K/year throughput milestonepre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Figure demonstrates unsupervised multi-day in-home autonomypre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First paying retail customer takes delivery of Figure robot in private homecascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #3 · pending · 2034-07-11 — Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environmentscascade #4 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #5 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First humanoid-robot deployment with active human co-working (no isolation barrier)pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — ISO/IEC publishes humanoid-specific safety standard (analogous to ISO 13482 for service robots)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First independent dataset shows humanoid-robot injury rate <=10% of human-equivalent task injury ratepre #2 · pending · 2028-06-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-11 — Insurance industry creates dedicated workers-comp/liability product class for humanoid-robot deployerspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostonpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Figure publicly cites order book or wait-list metriccascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Figure or peer humanoid private-round implies $50B+ valuationcascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production start as parallel demand validationcascade #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Industry-wide humanoid order book exceeds 100,000 units cumulativelycascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First public-market humanoid IPO or direct listingcascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostonpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Figure publicly cites order book or wait-list metriccascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Figure or peer humanoid private-round implies $50B+ valuationcascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production start as parallel demand validationcascade #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Industry-wide humanoid order book exceeds 100,000 units cumulativelycascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First public-market humanoid IPO or direct listingcascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostonpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Figure publicly cites order book or wait-list metriccascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Figure or peer humanoid private-round implies $50B+ valuationcascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production start as parallel demand validationcascade #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Industry-wide humanoid order book exceeds 100,000 units cumulativelycascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First public-market humanoid IPO or direct listingcascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Global humanoid demand reaches 30,000 units in 2026pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Tesla Optimus external customer shipments beginpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Foundation deploys 10,000 humanoids in 2026, 50,000 by end-2027pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cumulative humanoid robots deployed in SF Bay Area exceeds 5,000cascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — More-humanoids-than-humans density NOT achieved in any SF block by 2028-11-30pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-31 — Figure Grid facility opens with 24/7 operationspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour ratepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Figure production triples from March to May 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-19 — Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs downcascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Figure achieves 30-min production cadence in Bakucascade #4 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Cumulative Figure 03 deployment crosses 1000 unitscascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First humanoid OEM ships robot with thermal/IR sensor modulepre #4 · pending · 2027-12-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Figure or Tesla announces multi-spectral perception SDK / customer featurepre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First commercial humanoid deployment in domain requiring beyond-visible perceptionpre #1 · pending · 2028-09-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Figure home pilot — long-horizon tasks in unseen homespre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Figure deploys F.03 in non-automotive vertical (logistics, retail, home)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Vertical/form-factor humanoid wins >=20% of new automotive orderspre #2 · pending · 2027-10-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Robot-built-robot demonstration at BotQpre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Helix or successor whole-body control model publicly benchmarks task-completion time vs. 2026pre #5 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Figure or peer reports field humanoids running at >=3x current observed speed in customer sitepre #4 · pending · 2028-03-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — BotQ factory throughput hits one Figure unit per minute or fasterpre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Industry benchmark (e.g. RoboHIVE, BEHAVIOR) records 5x speedup on humanoid manipulation taskspre #1 · pending · 2029-03-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Tesla Optimus production crosses 10,000 cumulative unitspre #5 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #4 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines.pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Annual humanoid robot production (industry-wide) crosses 1 million unitspre #2 · pending · 2028-11-16 — First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe.pre #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028cascade #1 · pending · 2030-09-15 — Tesla or Figure crosses 10M cumulative humanoid unitscascade #2 · pending · 2034-07-11 — Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environmentscascade #3 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #4 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Tesla Optimus production crosses 10,000 cumulative unitspre #5 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #4 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines.pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Annual humanoid robot production (industry-wide) crosses 1 million unitspre #2 · pending · 2028-11-16 — First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe.pre #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028cascade #1 · pending · 2030-09-15 — Tesla or Figure crosses 10M cumulative humanoid unitscascade #2 · pending · 2034-07-11 — Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environmentscascade #3 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #4 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · hit · 2024-12-31 — Humanoid robot market sized at $1.55B in 2024 (Grand View Research baseline)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-10-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Tesla / Figure / 1X cumulative humanoid units exceed 1 millioncascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Humanoid plus automation TAM revised to $1T+ by major analystcascade #2 · pending · 2029-12-16 — Humanoid plus automation market hits $50T (Musk's claim)cascade #3 · pending · 2030-03-17 — Humanoid plus general automation market reaches $15B (MarketsandMarkets 2030 forecast)pre #6 · hit · 2024-12-31 — Humanoid robot market sized at $1.55B in 2024 (Grand View Research baseline)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-10-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Tesla / Figure / 1X cumulative humanoid units exceed 1 millioncascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Humanoid plus automation TAM revised to $1T+ by major analystcascade #2 · pending · 2029-12-16 — Humanoid plus automation market hits $50T (Musk's claim)cascade #3 · pending · 2030-03-17 — Humanoid plus general automation market reaches $15B (MarketsandMarkets 2030 forecast)pre #6 · hit · 2024-12-31 — Humanoid robot market sized at $1.55B in 2024 (Grand View Research baseline)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-10-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Tesla / Figure / 1X cumulative humanoid units exceed 1 millioncascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Humanoid plus automation TAM revised to $1T+ by major analystcascade #2 · pending · 2029-12-16 — Humanoid plus automation market hits $50T (Musk's claim)cascade #3 · pending · 2030-03-17 — Humanoid plus general automation market reaches $15B (MarketsandMarkets 2030 forecast)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — RobotLAB / industry consensus: commercial robot plumber 'by end of decade'pre #5 · pending · 2026-05-02 — 1X Neo housekeeper at $20K reaches consumer marketpre #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Humanoid dexterous-manipulation benchmark fails plumbing taskspre #2 · pending · 2027-12-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-01 — First commercially viable humanoid trades robot reaches marketcascade #2 · pending · 2030-08-16 — BLS HVAC employment grows 8% (2024-2034) per official projectionpre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major data-center operator (Equinix, Digital Realty, AWS, Microsoft, Google) announces robotics-assisted construction pipre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Boston Dynamics, Figure, Agility, or Apptronik secures multi-million-dollar data-center construction contractpre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Hyperscaler (AWS, Microsoft, Google, Meta) discloses humanoid-robot deployment in earnings call or sustainability reportpre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Public video / press tour shows >2 humanoid robots performing distinct construction tasks at one data-center sitepre #2 · pending · 2027-08-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Construction industry analyst report quantifies labor-substitution by humanoid robots in tier-1 verticalscascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: Robotics-built data center reaches commissioningpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostonpre #1 · pending · 2026-05-17 — 1X opens U.S. (Hayward CA) factory to support NEO production at 10K/yr capacitycascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Bernt Bornich (1X CEO) publicly confirms shipment to Peter Diamandis specificallycascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — 1X NEO begins consumer home shipments in 2026 (Early Access)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-22 — Diamandis shares first home-use video/post of 1X NEO at his residencecascade #4 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Total cumulative NEO consumer deliveries reach 1,000+ units globally in 2026cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostonpre #1 · pending · 2026-05-17 — 1X opens U.S. (Hayward CA) factory to support NEO production at 10K/yr capacitycascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Bernt Bornich (1X CEO) publicly confirms shipment to Peter Diamandis specificallycascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — 1X NEO begins consumer home shipments in 2026 (Early Access)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-22 — Diamandis shares first home-use video/post of 1X NEO at his residencecascade #4 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Total cumulative NEO consumer deliveries reach 1,000+ units globally in 2026cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027pre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-14 — Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s.pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Optimus V3 prototype publicly revealed by Teslapre #4 · pending · 2026-06-19 — Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs downpre #3 · pending · 2026-06-21 — Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term.pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-23 — If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists).pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Musk delays or pushes back production timeline (risk milestone)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Tesla AI5 chip (with ~5x memory bandwidth vs Gen 2) integrated into Optimus 3cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Optimus 3 production line begins low-rate manufacturing at Fremont factorycascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Initial 2026 production volume reaches several hundred units (S-curve start)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorpre #6 · pending · 2026-10-01 — 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Giga Texas dedicated Optimus factory groundbreaking confirmedpre #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Cumulative Optimus production reaches several hundred units (2026 YE)pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-16 — High-volume production milestone (1K+ units/month run rate)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Cascade: external customer commercial deliveries begin (non-Tesla deployment)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #3 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #5 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-02-17 — Tesla reveals Optimus Gen 3 hand patents (50 actuators, 22 DoF/hand)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Tesla Optimus V3 official reveal event late July / early August 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Tesla Optimus V3 begins formal production at Fremontcascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Optimus V3 Tesla AI5 chip integrated with Grok / xAI co-processingcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Tesla Optimus Gen 4 announced (2027 yearly cadence test)cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-22 — Tesla Q1 2026 update confirms 5.2M sq ft Optimus expansion at Giga Texaspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Geopier foundation work begins at Giga Texas Optimus sitepre #4 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Low-volume Optimus output begins from Austin facilitypre #1 · pending · 2026-09-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Major structural work completed by end of 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Tesla Optimus reaches 1M unit annualized run-ratepre #6 · pending · 2027-12-29 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Cumulative humanoid robot units deployed in commercial settings exceeds 50,000pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Tesla Optimus achieves stated 'high-volume' productionpre #3 · pending · 2028-06-30 — AI software market growth (~20% CAGR) sustains 3+ years while humanoid market remains <$10Bpre #2 · pending · 2028-10-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Industrial humanoid robot ROI parity reached for first major use-casecascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-28 — Robots-lag-software validated by 2029pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Tesla Optimus V3 reaches 1M unit annual productionpre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — SpaceX Starfactory 1000-Starships/yr target validates auto-only pathpre #3 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines.pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First public benchmark test of humanoid in aerospace tooling taskpre #1 · pending · 2028-11-16 — First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe.cascade #1 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Humanoid robot performs full rocket sub-assembly task autonomouslycascade #2 · pending · 2034-07-11 — Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environmentscascade #3 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #4 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #3 · pending · 2027-02-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Tesla breaks ground on 10M-unit/year Optimus factory at Giga Texaspre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Figure deploys autonomous in-home humanoid in unseen environmentspre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Cumulative humanoid robot deployments cross 100K units across all manufacturerspre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First measurable services-sector productivity uplift from humanoid deploymentcascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-30 — By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the worldcascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #4 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #5 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Tesla breaks ground on 10M-unit/year Optimus factory at Giga Texaspre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Figure deploys autonomous in-home humanoid in unseen environmentspre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Cumulative humanoid robot deployments cross 100K units across all manufacturerspre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First measurable services-sector productivity uplift from humanoid deploymentcascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-30 — By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the worldcascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #4 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #5 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Tesla breaks ground on 10M-unit/year Optimus factory at Giga Texaspre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Figure deploys autonomous in-home humanoid in unseen environmentspre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Cumulative humanoid robot deployments cross 100K units across all manufacturerspre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First measurable services-sector productivity uplift from humanoid deploymentcascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-30 — By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the worldcascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #4 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #5 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Tesla breaks ground on 10M-unit/year Optimus factory at Giga Texaspre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Figure deploys autonomous in-home humanoid in unseen environmentspre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Cumulative humanoid robot deployments cross 100K units across all manufacturerspre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First measurable services-sector productivity uplift from humanoid deploymentcascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-30 — By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the worldcascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #4 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #5 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #4 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-19 — Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027cascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #4 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-19 — Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027cascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #4 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-19 — Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027cascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostonpre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Hyperscaler AI traffic capex includes net-new bandwidth/spectrum line itempre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Starlink/Kuiper announce robot/AV-class connectivity tiercascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production start signals demand validation for connected humanoidscascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cellular IoT module shipments for robotics/AV cross 100M annualizedcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Spectrum policy: FCC or peer regulator allocates net-new AI-machine-class spectrumcascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostoncascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Major US/EU news incident: humanoid robot injures human at consumer-facing eventcascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — ASTM/ISO publishes first humanoid-specific safety standardcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First US state introduces legislation regulating humanoid robots in public spacescascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Polling shows majority of Americans 'concerned' about humanoid robots in publiccascade #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cybersecurity firm publishes proof-of-concept exploit for production humanoid robot fleetpre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028pre #3 · pending · 2029-02-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-04-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028pre #3 · pending · 2029-02-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-04-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028pre #3 · pending · 2029-02-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-04-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028pre #3 · pending · 2029-02-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-04-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-22 — Tesla Q1 2026 earnings: Fremont line conversion confirmed for late July/Augpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Optimus low-volume production starts at Fremont (summer 2026)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Optimus retail price publicly disclosed at $20-30K per unitcascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — First Optimus retail customer / external sales contract announcedcascade #4 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Cumulative external Optimus units sold >=100target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift
68 plotted across 4 branches · 3 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to SERV.

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)
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Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.