0 25 50 75 100 history 230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis ✓ 238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now ✓ 240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months ✓ AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake ✓ 238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) ✓ CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20 ✓ AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o ✓ 240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 ✓ FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna ✓ AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en ✓ 242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission ✓ 244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years ✓ 241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation ✓ 229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne ✓ IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct ✓ SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S ✓ SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil ✓ SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on ✓ 232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti ✓ 241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom ✓ AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓ 234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 ✓ 242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license ✓ 233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra ✓ CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val ✓ 246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers). ✓ 238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) ✓ 247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston ✓ AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using ✓ IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do ✓ AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓ CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la ✓ AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c ✓ CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba ✓ 247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial ✓ 235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). ✓ 245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE ✓ CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o ✓ 246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. ✓ FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain- ✓ ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin ✓ ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU ✓ INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva ✓ INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula ✓ SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f ✓ SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. ✓ INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n ✓ 229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. ✓ 248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. ✓ 248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. ✓ ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence- ✓ CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to ✓ 235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. ✓ SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc ✓ SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f ✓ 237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca ✓ 238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days ✓ 232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. ✓ 241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long ✓ 245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed ✓ SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme ✓ 248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. ✓ SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200 ✓ 229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. ✓ CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re ✓ CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi ✓ CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr ✓ SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate ✓ INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup ✓ INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor ✓ SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. ✓ SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying ✓ SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓ SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu ✓ SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual ✓ 231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. ✗ 231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. ✗ 235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. ✗ 244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years ◐ 239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world ◐ INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol ◐ 232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani ◐ 236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours ◐ SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad ◐ AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey ◐ 238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi ◐ 231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. ◐ CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐ 246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. ◐ AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree ◐ 246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). ◐ 247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently ◐ 245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus ◐ INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn ◐ INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat ◐ 246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. ◐ INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob ◐ SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se ◐ ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar ◐ INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await ◐ SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr ◐ INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive ◐ SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐ SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na ◐ SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u ◐ SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast ◐ SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10 ◐ SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci ◐ CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go ◐ INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — ◐ INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive ◐ SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a ◐ Jan 2026 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2027 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2028 Feb Mar Apr May Jun today pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Goldman Sachs / McKinsey publishes humanoid GDP-impact model with jurisdiction comparisons pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First sub-national jurisdiction (city/state) launches humanoid-friendly economic zone pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Global humanoid shipments cross 100,000 units in calendar year cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — First peer-reviewed empirical paper measuring per-jurisdiction GDP uplift from humanoid deployment cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Wage suppression of low-skill manual labor exceeds 5% in robot-dense jurisdiction cascade #3 · pending · 2028-11-30 — If 100K total humanoid units not deployed by window-close 2028-11-30, 100x-GDP claim fails timing cascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — 55K AI-attributed layoffs in 2025 (Workday, Amazon, Salesforce et al) pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-28 — 32K tech-firm job losses in first 2 months of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major industry (call centers, BPO, customer support) shows >15% YoY headcount decline cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI-driven labor displacement reaches 1M jobs/year displacement rate cascade #3 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Fed delivers first rate cut in current cycle pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Capex on AI/robotics rises while corporate hiring slows pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-14 — Public co. earnings calls cite agent/robot purchases substituting hires pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Humanoid robot unit shipments cross 100K annual run-rate cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-21 — Net hiring vs robot/agent-deployment gap visible in macro data cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First US state or major economy passes UBI bill above $500/month pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — AI-driven white-collar layoffs accelerate in BLS / Challenger reports cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Large-scale labor unrest event (>10,000 participants) tied to AI displacement cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Federal pilot program or executive order on automation transition assistance cascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — OECD-wide social-insurance reform debate accelerates beyond 2026 cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Giving Pledge attrition continues — second AI-era billionaire publicly exits pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI founder net worth crosses $200B (Altman/Huang/Musk-class) pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Aggregate AI-founder philanthropic commitments cross $100B cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Young-worker (22-25) employment in AI-exposed jobs falls ≥15% pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AI-attributed tech layoffs cross 100K cumulative 2026 pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Mass-mobilization protest tied to AI/automation displacement pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — State or federal UBI / wage-insurance bill introduced citing AI displacement cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-11 — FHA delinquency rate breaches 11% (highest since 2021) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Aggregate household debt crosses $19T by mid-2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Cascade: regional bank credit-loss provisions rise YoY by 25%+ cascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Low-income zip 90+ DPD rate exceeds 3.5% by year-end 2026 cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Larry Fink/BlackRock CEO publicly warns AI deepening wealth gap pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — S&P 500 firms reduce headcount while productivity rises cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Capital share of GDP exceeds 65% in advanced economies cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-15 — World Bank WDR 2026 'AI for Development' published with poverty-impact framework pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First country deploys AI-driven cash-transfer or geospatial-targeting program at scale (>5M beneficiaries) pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Global extreme poverty rate drops below 9.5% per World Bank PovcalNet update pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-16 — AI-tool penetration in low-income agricultural extension services exceeds 25% pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Sub-Saharan Africa poverty rate stagnant or rising despite AI rollout pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If no >5M-beneficiary AI poverty program launches by end-2027, 'chance of fixing' becomes generous cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-14 — First major economist publishes AI-driven hyperinflation framework pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US M2 / debt monetization signal — fiscal dominance proxy pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI-driven structural disinflation — opposite outcome (negation watch) pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — US headline CPI exceeds 8% sustained for 12+ months pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — May 1, 2026 mass labor protests in US (>500 organizations participating) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Single-day US protest crowd >=500K nationwide (June-Aug 2026) cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Teen anxiety/depression rates remain above pre-2020 levels into 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — AAA-rated civil unrest incident count rises ≥20% YoY by mid-2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anger/fear sentiment index (online) crosses 2020 pandemic peak cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Cascade: SAMHSA distress hotline volume up 25%+ YoY cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Global TFR projection updates show below-replacement faster than expected cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #2 · hit · 2026-01-31 — St. Louis Fed AI-contribution-to-GDP nowcast Jan 2026 pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-12 — BEA real GDP per capita Q1 2026 prints cascade #1 · hit · 2026-01-26 — AI-related capex categories rank top-2 driver of US GDP growth in any quarter cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — US nominal GDP per capita crosses $90,000 in 2026 cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Productivity growth (nonfarm business output/hour) >2% YoY for 2026 sustained pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — HHS publishes 2026 Poverty Guidelines for individual pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Census Bureau releases supplemental poverty measure (SPM) update cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Public discourse shifts to higher 'effective' poverty benchmarks cascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Federal or state UBI/wage-floor proposal pegs benefits near $25K/person cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Anthropic / OpenAI restrict managed agent access citing OpenClaw substitution pressure pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-30 — OpenClaw GitHub stars cross 1,000,000 pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — If OpenClaw stars stagnate or fall below 500K by end-2026, consumer-adoption thesis weakens pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Enterprise migration to OpenClaw exceeds 50% of new agent deployments at top-10 vendors pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Major SaaS vendor reports >10% revenue impact attributed to OpenClaw substitution pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cumulative consumer-side OpenClaw deployments cross 10 million users cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-16 — AI venture funding 2026 H1 exceeds $200B globally pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Open-weight frontier model released by sub-$10M lab pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Solo / small-team product reaches ≥100K MAU on agent stack pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — PDI gauntlet: Top 10 AI products built with <$1M founding capital by 2027 cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Major analyst report or central-bank speech reframes compute / energy as scarce factor of production pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — US grid interconnect queue or curtailment data shows binding compute-power gap pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Critical-mineral concentration crisis intensifies (rare-earth / cobalt / lithium) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Compute-credits / energy-tokens emerge as observed alternative-currency settlement cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — OECD or IMF working paper measures factor-price shift toward energy/compute cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Industrial 3D printing capex exceeds $25B globally in 2026 pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Molecular manufacturing public demonstration (sub-nanometer assembly) pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Consumer-good marginal cost benchmark (3D-printed shoe/tool) hits sub-$5 pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Mainstream economists adopt 'near-zero marginal cost' framing in 2027 cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — U6 underemployment rate crosses 9% sustained for 2+ months pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major US protest event explicitly framed as 'AI job loss' organized pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — NBER recession declaration for 2026 or 2027 pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2027 cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Pincus/Donovan publicly announces wealth-pod structure pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — First annual disbursement to 44 recipients (4% cash + 1% expansion pool) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Pod publishes baseline wellbeing/income measurement of 44 recipients cascade #3 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First-year recipient outcomes publicly reported cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-14 — Expansion pool funds second pod cascade #5 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years cascade #6 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Tesla Optimus 3 enters production cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — US CPI core inflation drops below 2% YoY cascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Goods-price PPI declines YoY for >=2 consecutive quarters cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Fed funds rate cut to <2% citing AI productivity disinflation cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Real GDP growth exceeds 5% sustained 4 quarters cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Anthropic CEO restates AGI 2026-2027 timeline at major venue pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Frontier model achieves novel scientific insight (Altman 2026 prediction) pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — G20 / OECD policy paper acknowledges money/work decoupling scenario cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Macro indicator: real wage / consumption ratios show AI-era distortion cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-03 — Goldman: AI productivity contribution near-zero (0.1-0.2pp GDP) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Treasury auction stress event (≥10y yield spike >25bps in week) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major fiscal-AI policy proposal in Congress cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Real GDP growth from AI investment exceeds 1pp/yr in 2027 cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-15 — OpenAI / Anthropic / Tesla CEO public statement that money is becoming less relevant pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major government formally proposes UBI / AI dividend pilot cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — AI white-collar displacement crosses measurable threshold (BLS or McKinsey data) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Public AI-dividend / token tax legislative proposal in US Congress pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-29 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First public claim by major economist or central banker that AI is meaningfully shifting the long-run growth trajectory pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Macro literature publishes formal critique of 1000x economy thesis pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — AI-driven productivity growth shows up in advanced-economy TFP statistics (sustained >2% TFP growth for 3 consecutive ye cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Energy-output decoupling milestone: global TWh growth keeps pace with GDP without proportional emissions cascade #3 · pending · 2031-01-01 — Cascade: post-scarcity policy frameworks debated in G7 / G20 cascade #4 · pending · 2035-07-02 — Global nominal GDP doubles vs 2024 baseline (2024 nominal world GDP ~$110T → ~$220T) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-16 — AI-driven structural disinflation observable in CPI/PPI data (sustained 5-12% logistics/manufacturing cost compression) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Electricity becomes binding constraint on AI / production cost stack (Morgan Stanley / Goldman flag) pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tech-giant capex tops $700B (2026 — marks compute deflation flywheel) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Specific consumer-good category shows AI-driven price compression to within ~2x of energy+materials cost cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Charles I. Jones-style endogenous-growth model with AI-driven cost-collapse cited by Fed / CBO cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Concurrent mass-layoff cycle Q1 2026 (Block 40%, Atlassian 1,600+, Salesforce, Klarna, etc.) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Hyperscaler capex concentration: top-5 firms account for >70% of US AI capex cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI-native startup count crosses 50,000 (Schmidt 'large number of very small companies') cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — AI capex contributes 1.1% to GDP growth in H1 2025 baseline pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Data center construction hits $40B annual rate (June 2025 baseline) pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Q1 2026 AI investments drive 75% of GDP increase pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — 2026 hyperscaler AI capex reaches $700B (~doubles 2025) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Global data center capex CAGR confirms 21% trajectory toward $1.2T by 2029 cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Construction subsegment 'data center' formally separated from 'office' in BEA data cascade #4 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years cascade #5 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI-managed enterprise agent crosses verified $1B in autonomous purchasing/procurement decisions in single year pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Public AI-managed investment fund (BlackRock Aladdin Auto, JPMorgan IndexGPT, or new entrant) crosses $100B AUM pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Frontier-model agent autonomously runs an SEC-registered fund or RIA business unit cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Federal Reserve, Treasury, or major central bank publishes formal study on AI agents as systemic financial-market actors cascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Federal regulator opens formal rulemaking or enforcement action specifically targeting AI agents in capital allocation cascade #3 · pending · 2029-03-16 — S&P 500 or major economic index includes AI-managed entity as constituent cascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 pre #6 · miss · 2023-09-04 — IPBES authoritative figure is $423B/year (NOT $5.4T) pre #5 · hit · 2023-09-04 — Costs quadrupled every decade since 1970 pre #4 · hit · 2025-05-15 — Phys.org May 2025 study cumulative cost since 1960 exceeds $2.2T pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major government allocates >$1B specifically to invasive species control cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Colossal Biosciences or competitor announces commercial invasive species removal contract cascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Updated IPBES estimate publishes in next assessment cycle cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years pre #6 · miss · 2025-11-30 — USDA NIFA estimates US invasive species impact at $137B/year (NOT $500B) pre #5 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Global biological invasion costs reach US$ 26B+/year in 2010s pre #4 · hit · 2025-12-31 — North America cumulative invasion cost crosses $1.3T (1960-2017) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — USDA invasive species program funding increase cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Colossal Biosciences expands de-extinction work as invasive species response cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Colossal Biosciences or Ben Lamm publicly announces gene-drive commercial business unit cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Gene-drive Phase III mosquito field trial starts in sub-Saharan Africa cascade #3 · pending · 2027-12-16 — International gene-drive governance framework formalized (Convention on Biological Diversity / WHO) cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — First gene-drive-derived commercial product (mosquito control, agricultural pest control) ships cascade #5 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Cascade: Gene-drive market sizing reports cumulative TAM > $100B in named report cascade #6 · pending · 2031-12-31 — Cascade: Major rogue or unauthorized gene-drive release becomes geopolitical incident pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Sam Altman / Dario Amodei / Demis Hassabis publicly endorse zero-marginal-cost framing pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Cost-of-intelligence per token falls 10x year-over-year pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Mainstream-economist counter-argument published (Krugman / Acemoglu / Summers) pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major AI service rolls out free unlimited tier to >100M users cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Energy / compute scarcity contradicts 'zero marginal cost' narrative cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Leading AI lab (OpenAI/Anthropic/Google) publicly proposes Universal Basic Compute mechanism pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major economic body (IMF/OECD/WEF) publishes formal 'post-scarcity' or 'capitalism 2.0' framework pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — US/EU congressional hearing dedicated to post-AI economic structure pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First national pilot of UBI/UBC explicitly tied to AI productivity dividends pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If by end-2027 no national-level pilot has launched, 'will emerge' becomes unrealistic by window close cascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-16 — Mainstream presidential-tier candidate adopts post-scarcity platform plank cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — GPT-5.5 / Claude / Gemini 3 enable single-founder agentic businesses at scale pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — AI-native solo entrepreneurs cross $1M ARR threshold (more than 100 documented cases) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Anti-AI sentiment / political backlash escalates beyond Sam Altman attack cascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Major UBI pilot or social-contract policy proposal advances in target window cascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-14 — BLS data shows non-employer business formation surge attributed to AI cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Alphabet long-term debt quadrupled to $46.5B in 2025 pre #5 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Hyperscalers raised $108B in debt during 2025 alone pre #4 · hit · 2026-02-06 — Hyperscaler 2026 capex aggregate confirmed >$600B pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Goldman: hyperscaler capex 2025-2027 will reach $1.15T (vs $477B 2022-24) pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Q1-Q2 2026 hyperscaler earnings reaffirm capex guidance unchanged or up cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Credit markets show stress: hyperscaler bond spreads widen >50bps in 2026 pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Big-4 consultancy launches outcome-based AI pricing pilot cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Major SaaS company announces shift to usage/outcome pricing cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Hyperscaler (AWS, Azure, GCP) launches outcome-based AI service tier cascade #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Industry analyst declares 'outcome economy' as dominant pricing trend pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Deloitte/EY full-year 2026 GDP forecasts converge at ~2.0% pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — BEA Q1 2026 advance estimate: 2.0% real GDP growth pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Q1 2026 AI capex contributed 75% of GDP increase pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: AI-capex slowdown narrative emerges in 2H 2026 commentary cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AI productivity gains lag — show up in 2027+ data cascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Full-year 2026 GDP final reading lands 1.6-2.5% target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift 40 plotted · 21 outside x-range · click any dot for detail
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.