0 25 50 75 100 history 230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis ✓ 238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now ✓ 240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months ✓ AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake ✓ 238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) ✓ CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20 ✓ AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o ✓ 240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 ✓ FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna ✓ AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en ✓ 242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission ✓ 244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years ✓ 241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation ✓ 229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne ✓ IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct ✓ SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S ✓ SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil ✓ SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on ✓ 232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti ✓ 241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom ✓ AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓ 234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 ✓ 242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license ✓ 233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra ✓ CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val ✓ 246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers). ✓ 238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) ✓ 247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston ✓ AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using ✓ IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do ✓ AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓ CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la ✓ AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c ✓ CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba ✓ 247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial ✓ 235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). ✓ 245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE ✓ CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o ✓ 246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. ✓ FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain- ✓ ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin ✓ ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU ✓ INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva ✓ INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula ✓ SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f ✓ SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. ✓ INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n ✓ 229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. ✓ 248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. ✓ 248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. ✓ ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence- ✓ CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to ✓ 235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. ✓ SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc ✓ SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f ✓ 237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca ✓ 238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days ✓ 232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. ✓ 241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long ✓ 245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed ✓ SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme ✓ 248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. ✓ SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200 ✓ 229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. ✓ CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re ✓ CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi ✓ CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr ✓ SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate ✓ INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup ✓ INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor ✓ SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. ✓ SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying ✓ SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓ SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu ✓ SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual ✓ 231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. ✗ 231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. ✗ 235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. ✗ 244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years ◐ 239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world ◐ INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol ◐ 232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani ◐ 236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours ◐ SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad ◐ AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey ◐ 238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi ◐ 231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. ◐ CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐ 246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. ◐ AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree ◐ 246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). ◐ 247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently ◐ 245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus ◐ INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn ◐ INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat ◐ 246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. ◐ INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob ◐ SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se ◐ ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar ◐ INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await ◐ SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr ◐ INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive ◐ SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐ SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na ◐ SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u ◐ SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast ◐ SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10 ◐ SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci ◐ CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go ◐ INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — ◐ INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight ◐ INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive ◐ SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a ◐ Jan 2026 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2027 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2028 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2029 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2030 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2031 Feb Mar Apr May Jun today pre #6 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Fortune-1000 firm publicly automates >= 50% of executive committee functions with AI pre #5 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First publicly disclosed Fortune-500 CEO (or interim CEO) replaced by AI agent system pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — BLS reports manual-labor occupations growing faster than knowledge-worker occupations in 2027-2028 pre #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Unskilled-labor humanoid-robot deployment in retail/hospitality remains <5% of US workforce pre #2 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Median CEO compensation in S&P 500 declines >= 20% from 2024 baseline pre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — First humanoid robot achieves >= 90% of human dexterity in unstructured manual tasks (independent benchmark) cascade #1 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Prompt Engineer becomes formally tracked job category (135.8% YoY growth) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Context Engineer / RAG Engineer roles emerge as distinct from prompt engineer pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Chief AI Officer (CAIO/CAIRO) becomes standardized C-suite role at S&P 500 companies pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Data-rights brokerage emerges as formal commercial category pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — BLS adds new job classifications for AI-specific roles in O*NET database pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major US city sees youth-led AI/jobs protest >5,000 attendees pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Federal policy response: youth-targeted UBI pilot or jobs guarantee program launched pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Class of 2026 worst job market for new grads since pandemic onset (NACE survey) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Junior tech postings drop ≥50% from 2024 baseline pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Salesforce hiring 1,000 new graduates + Amazon 11,000 SWE interns 2026 — entrepreneurial/builder tier preserved pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Youth unemployment exceeds 10% (US 16-24) — ServiceNow CEO 30% warning materializes partway pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-05-01 — MoonAgents Card and a16z stablecoin-agent thesis publicly launch pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — BLS reports new business formation continues elevated through AI-tooling adoption window pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Stablecoin annual transaction volume exceeds $50 trillion pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BLS unemployment rate stays below 5.5% through entire window despite AI displacement narrative pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First publicly documented case of single-founder >$10M ARR business operated >50% by AI agents pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — BLS unemployment rate spikes >=1% YoY in white-collar BLS occupational categories pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Personal bankruptcy filings rise >=25% YoY (Yang's predicted second-order effect) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Cascade: First major US political party adopts UBI-like policy plank in 2028 cycle pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: Aggregate white-collar headcount in S&P 500 declines >=10% from 2025 peak cascade #1 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — 60% of hiring managers planning AI-driven layoffs in 2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — 30% of companies planning AI-driven layoffs (McKinsey state-of-AI) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: AI-attributed layoffs cross 200K in 2026 single year cascade #3 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-01 — 30-month sustained contraction in white-collar payrolls (continuation of 29-mo trend) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic Economic Index quarterly update shows entry-level white-collar exposure widening pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BLS unemployment rate for college grads age 22-25 crosses 6% pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Big-four consultancy or top law firm announces >25% reduction in entry-level hiring class pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — If thesis right: US headline unemployment crosses 7% during 2028-2030 cascade #1 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-20 — Meta cuts 10% of workforce (~8,000) starting May 20, 2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Big Freeze: 32%+ of companies plan AI-driven headcount reduction cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Total 2026 mass layoffs cross 1.5M with AI cited in >10% cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: white-collar U-3 unemployment crosses 4.5% by mid-2027 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — BLS occupational employment survey shows ≥3% drop in white-collar OES categories pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Unemployment rate rises ≥1.5pp from 4.1% baseline pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Major commercial real-estate vacancy spike (>25% Class-A office) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — 20-50% of 70M office workers displaced (resolution criterion) cascade #2 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — OpenClaw or peer AI agent platform passes 10M paying users / 100M MAU pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI-assisted solo-founder / 'one-person unicorn' formation rate hits new high pre #1 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Small-business net-new hiring exceeds FANG layoffs YoY cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Net job creation > job destruction at AI-displacement-affected industries cascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Mainstream economic narrative shifts to 'AI as net job creator' (cascade) cascade #3 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — AI capex reaches 2% of US GDP (~$650B) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First major frontier-lab government coordination event (no firewall in policy) pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Universal income / wage-replacement pilot program launched in any G20 nation pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — BLS unemployment rate exceeds 6% with explicit AI attribution in commentary pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Tech sector AI-attributed job losses cross 75K in H1 2025 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Klarna-style customer service AI replacement scales to 5+ Fortune 1000 companies cascade #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Junior developer hiring rate drops >25% YoY cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — BLS reports AI-attributed unemployment rate uptick cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal/state UBI or AI displacement tax legislation introduced pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — Customer service / call center employment down >15% YoY pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Tesla Optimus mass production begins in Q3 2026 (>=1,000 units shipped) pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Humanoid robot autonomously completes high-skilled mechanical task (e.g., automotive engine assembly) pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-30 — First skilled-trade union acknowledges automation displacement risk in collective bargaining pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cognitive AI agents demonstrate >50% replacement rate for entry-level white-collar before humanoid does same for trades pre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — BLS or OECD employment statistics show high-skilled mechanical occupations resilient vs cognitive jobs pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-16 — ≥3 Fortune-100 firms cite AI as primary headcount driver in 10-K pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major employer publicly issues 'AI-only' job posting pre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — First U.S. labor-rights litigation over AI-only hiring practices pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — AI-cited layoffs reach 100,000 cumulative through 2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-14 — BLS productivity data shows white-collar sector productivity surge cascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — WEF Future of Jobs report quantifies structural displacement cascade #3 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Solo entrepreneur with >=$10M ARR built primarily on AI tools (single-person AI conglomerate) pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Stripe Atlas / LLC formation data shows surge in single-member firms pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Anthropic Economic Index or McKinsey survey: net job creation among AI-adopting firms pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — BLS net employment change positive over 24-month window 2026-2028 pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Forbes/Fortune profile feature on solo AI-billionaires or near-billionaires pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BLS unemployment rate stays below 5.0% through 2028 pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — New job categories created: BLS adds >=2 new SOC codes for AI-era roles pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Goldman Sachs, McKinsey, or Anthropic publish revised displacement timeline through 2028 pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Job category extinction: BLS occupational data shows >=3 occupations decline >=20% pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Labor force participation rate stays within +/-1pp of 2025 baseline pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Junior software developer (0-3 yr exp) job postings on Indeed/LinkedIn rise YoY for 3 consecutive months cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS JOLTS Information sector job openings rebound above 2024 baseline cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Stack Overflow Developer Survey shows entry-level developer share stabilizing or rising cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Salesforce hires 1,000 new-grad software/AI engineers as Benioff committed cascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal Reserve or BLS publishes follow-on study reaffirming AI-not-driving-junior-dev decline cascade #6 · pending · 2028-10-31 — Cascade: CS undergrad enrollment growth resumes (>=2% YoY) after 2024-25 dip pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Frontier lab announces general-knowledge-worker capability claim cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-30 — BLS shows multiple consecutive quarters of white-collar employment decline cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major consultancy reports AI-driven cost reduction in target functions cascade #4 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Cumulative knowledge-worker layoffs >250K in 18-month window cascade #5 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift 21 plotted · click any dot for detail
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.