Timeline Fan

117 of 117 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

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Top predictors
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)
0255075100history230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis✓238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now✓240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months✓AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake✓238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)✓CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20✓AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o✓240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027✓FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna✓AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en✓242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission✓244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years✓241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation✓229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne✓IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct✓SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S✓SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil✓SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on✓232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti✓241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom✓AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026✓242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license✓233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra✓CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val✓246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers).✓238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if)✓247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston✓AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using✓IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do✓AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la✓AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c✓CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba✓247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial✓235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).✓245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE✓CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o✓246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.✓FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-✓ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin✓ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU✓INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva✓INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula✓SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f✓SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.✓INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n✓229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.✓248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.✓248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.✓ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence-✓CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to✓235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.✓SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc✓SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f✓237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca✓238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days✓232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.✓241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long✓245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed✓SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme✓248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.✓SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200✓229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.✓CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re✓CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi✓CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr✓SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate✓INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup✓INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor✓SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.✓SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying✓SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu✓SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual✓231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.✗231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.✗235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.✗244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years◐239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world◐INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol◐232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani◐236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours◐SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad◐AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey◐238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi◐231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.◐CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.◐AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree◐246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).◐247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently◐245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus◐INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn◐INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat◐246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.◐INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob◐SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se◐ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar◐INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await◐SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr◐INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive◐SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na◐SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u◐SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast◐SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10◐SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci◐CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go◐INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 —◐INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive◐SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a◐Jan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2027FebMarAprMayJuntodaypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-23 — AlphaEvolve-style autonomous algorithm discovery system deployed inside frontier labpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Anthropic / OpenAI / Google publish 'recursive self-improvement' framing in official communicationscascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic reports >50% software-development speed gain from coding agentscascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI ships intern-level AI research agent (writing code, generating training data)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier labs grow effective AI 'workforce' to tens of thousands of agentic instancescascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — GPT-5.5 ships with 86% hallucination rate (most-capable model worst-calibrated)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Industry-leader hallucination rate drops below 2% on standard factual benchmarkscascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Self-correcting RLHF or constitutional method reduces error rate by 50% vs basecascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Frontier model release cadence remains <=4 months between major versionspre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — OpenAI/Anthropic safety evaluation period >=4 weekspre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Internal-only model demos at OpenAI DevDay or research blogpre #1 · pending · 2026-05-02 — Frontier benchmark advances (FrontierMath, ARC-AGI) signal capability jumps every quartercascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — OpenAI ships next-generation reasoning model in mid-2026cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Agentic AI deployment crosses 17% of enterprisespre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — AgentMail-style agent-to-agent email APIs achieve commercial tractioncascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Enterprise scale problem persists: 70-80% of agentic initiatives don't reach scalecascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Gartner Hype Cycle 2026 places agentic AI past Peak of Inflated Expectationscascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major email/comms platforms ship native agent-to-agent protocolscascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Responsible Scaling Policy revised — removes commitment to halt on serious riskpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Anthropic discloses Claude writes 70-90% of own training code (recursive self-improvement signal)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Anthropic Institute publishes recursive-self-improvement governance frameworkcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier model training run exceeds 1e27 FLOPs at Anthropic before competitorscascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — First Proof Challenge: AI solves >=1 of 10 expert-curated math problemscascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — All 10 of Blundin-referenced research math problems solved by AIcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-02-12 — Cursor or competitor ships permissionless long-running agents in research previewpre #5 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Claude Code Auto Mode launches with classifier-based approval delegationpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — METR autonomy time horizon doubles in 2026 H1cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anthropic moves Auto Mode out of research preview to GAcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major incident from permissionless agent autonomycascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-02-05 — OpenAI launches Frontier agent platform for enterprisespre #5 · hit · 2026-04-01 — AWS launches autonomous frontier agents for security and opspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Anthropic ships persistent Claude agent product (24/7 capable)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Google DeepMind/Gemini ships enterprise 24/7 agent offeringcascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Mistral / xAI / Meta ships frontier 24/7 agent offeringcascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: agentic SaaS replaces human-in-the-loop in CRM/ERPcascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Mexican government breach: 195M taxpayer records exfiltrated via Claude Codepre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — 88% of enterprises report AI agent security incidentspre #1 · pending · 2026-06-17 — Social license, not chips or compute, may be the true bottleneck to AI and will force expansion into space.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Number of publicly running autonomous AI agents crosses 100Mcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First publicly attributed physical-world harm event from AI agentcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-08 — FTC mandates AI Interoperability for largest providers (Microsoft/Alphabet)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-07 — Big-Tech earnings-call language pivots from capability hype to caveatcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Public AI-leader statements explicitly downplay near-term capabilitycascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Antitrust enforcement action filed against an AI hyperscaler partnershipcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Khanmigo + Synthesis Tutor + Alpha School deliver real-time personality-driven AI tutorspre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Custom-personality voice tutor available (configurable celebrity/style voice)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Independent study confirms learning gains from personality-driven AI tutorscascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Major LMS integration (Canvas/Google Classroom) ships avatar-tutor modulecascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — Codex gains long-horizon scheduling and self-wakeup capabilitypre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-15 — GPT-5.5 1M-token context window enables full-codebase agentic refactorspre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Competing labs ship coding agents matching or exceeding GPT-5.5 by mid-2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Pre-2026 coding agents publicly characterized as obsolete by GPT-5.5 era developerscascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — OpenAI releases GPT-5.5 codenamed 'Spud' (first ground-up retrain)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — GPT-5.5 Pro available in API with measurable benchmark gainspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — GPT-5.5 daily active users surpass 1B in ChatGPTcascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — GPT-6 or equivalent next-base announced by OpenAIcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-15 — Recursive Superintelligence startup funding signalpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Cascade: AI capability gains compress to <60-day cyclescascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2025-11-15 — Palo Alto Networks declares 2026 'Year of the Defender' with autonomous AIpre #5 · pending · 2026-03-17 — Major ransomware attack attributed to LLM-driven adversarypre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI security spend overtakes traditional SIEM/SOAR spendcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — GPT-5.5 ships as new leading AI modelpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 ships at 1 trillion parameterspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier labs shift narrative away from raw parameters toward reasoning computecascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — 100x raw parameter growth claim verified or refuted via 2026 disclosurescascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — TIME publishes warning on AI WMD security gappre #5 · hit · 2026-02-14 — King's College study: AI escalates to nuclear signaling in 95% of crisespre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — End-of-2026 milestone: AI agent demonstrably enables 'any virus' designcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anthropic ships built-in tool-use / native MCP-like capability in baseline Claudecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI deprecates or downgrades the third-party GPT/plugin marketplacecascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major model release ships with tools that subsume top-N marketplace appscascade #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Plugin developer ecosystem revenue declines or consolidatescascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Gemini Nano deployed at scale on Android Pixel + Samsung devicespre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Consumer survey shows ≥40% prefer on-device AI for privacypre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — App developers shift to on-device-first for sensitive use casescascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI announces dedicated teen-companion ChatGPT version with parental controlspre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — ChatGPT introduces new tone preset / model variant marketed as 'companion' or 'social'pre #2 · partial · 2025-12-01 — OpenAI publishes affective-use study or safety framework for companion-style usagepre #1 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Major news outlet runs feature on ChatGPT-as-companion adoption surgecascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Cascade: Competitor (Anthropic / Meta / xAI) launches dedicated companion model in responsecascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — ElevenLabs Conversational AI 2.0 with custom turn-taking model in productionpre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — OpenAI Realtime API voice agents at GA with sub-second latencypre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Voice agents handle outbound call campaigns at enterprise scalecascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Voice agent deployments >100K live across web/mobile/telephonycascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major US bank or telco deploys voice agent for >50% of customer service callscascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Long-running Claude scientific computing case studies publishedpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Public benchmark for multi-day agent task completion launchescascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Agent runs autonomously for >=72 hours on production task without human interventioncascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Multi-agent orchestration runs >=1 week continuouslycascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #5 · hit · 2025-11-01 — Alex Wissner-Gross publicly invites lobster/AI-agent input on AGI ethical parameterspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — AWG publicly acknowledges receipt of lobster/AI-agent emails or correspondencecascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AWG publishes 'consensus parameters' or shares them publiclycascade #3 · pending · 2027-11-01 — AWG publicly accepts the AI-agent consensus and applies it to lobster-instantiation choicescascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: AI-agent moral consensus framework cited in AI ethics / alignment literaturecascade #6 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Cascade: First documented instance of an AI-agent ethical consensus driving real-world AI training/deployment policypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Frontier labs disclose >=10x effective compute scale-up from Q1 2026 to mid-yearcascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Public benchmark step-change demonstrates capability gap between Jan-2026 and YE-2026 modelscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — End-of-2026 frontier model capability disclosures confirm 100x scaling claimcascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Capability jump triggers visible economic dislocation in white-collar productivitycascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Gartner: 40% of enterprise apps embed AI agents by end of 2026pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: Major SaaS vendor publishes 'agent-first' API spec / agent.md standardpre #2 · pending · 2027-01-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Agent-driven traffic exceeds 10% of API volume on a major dev platformpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-19 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Gartner: 40% of enterprise apps include task-specific AI agents by end-2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Worldwide AI spending crosses $2.5T in 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Cumulative deployed AI agent count crosses 10 billion (active provisioned)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Active deployed AI agents exceed human population (8B agents)cascade #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — 1 trillion AI agents threshold — Diamandis specific targetpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2025-02-24 — NVIDIA holds ≥70% of CoWoS-L advanced packaging capacity for 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-10 — Jensen Huang publicly requests TSMC 3nm capacity expansion +50%pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-01 — TSMC 3nm capacity utilization hits 100% in H1 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Independent disclosure of NVIDIA share of TSMC 3nm wafer starts ≥70%cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Apple secures meaningful 2nm allocation, leaving NVIDIA dominant on 3nm legacycascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Humanity's Last Exam top score crosses 50% thresholdpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI investment exceeds $700B annualized run-ratecascade #1 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Top-tier benchmark performance growth >=2x by mid-2027cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Frontier lab releases hybrid post-transformer model (Mamba/JEPA/diffusion or novel architecture) at production scalepre #2 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Sam Altman / frontier-lab CEO public statement: post-transformer architecture identified or imminentpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Novel architecture exceeds transformer on widely-followed benchmark (MMLU, GPQA, SWE-Bench, ARC-AGI) at matched computecascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Industry shift signal: ≥ 2 of top-5 frontier labs deploy non-pure-transformer flagshipcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-15 — ASML confirms 2026 EUV production target of ~60 machines (not 700-1000 as quoted by Blundin)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Foundry capacity expansion announcements cite EUV bottleneck as constraintcascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — ASML High-NA EUV (EXE:5200/5400) shipments commence to leading-edge fabscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-08 — ASML 2027 production guidance set (target ~80 machines)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: ASML announces 2030 capacity expansion plan exceeding 100 EUV machines/yearcascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenAI ships 'super-app' with agent + browse + voice unified experiencepre #2 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Wispr-class voice-first AI app crosses #1 productivity in App Storepre #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — ChatGPT crosses 1B weekly active userscascade #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — New consumer app reaches >50M MAU within 90 days of launchcascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Academic / industry survey on AI-and-wellbeing publishes effect-size datacascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-01 — OpenAI revises Stargate compute spend target down from $1.4T to ~$600Bpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-09 — OpenAI pauses or cancels named Stargate site (UK, Norway, or other)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Microsoft (or another partner) absorbs >50% of capacity originally earmarked for Stargatecascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenAI publicly announces Stargate-org restructuring or replacement initiativecascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Cascade: AI-capex reset narrative dominates earnings cycle (>=3 hyperscalers cite Stargate retrenchment)cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Cascade: Cumulative Stargate compute capacity through 2030 below 1 GW realizedcascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Anthropic publishes 2026 Agentic Coding Trends Reportpre #5 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Gartner forecasts 40% of enterprise apps will include AI agents by EOY 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Multi-agent system production deployments cross 50% of Fortune 500cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-29 — MCP/A2A security advisory or CVE published for cross-vendor agent prompt injection or tool-permission flawcascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Agentic AI Foundation publishes formal interoperability conformance suite for MCPcascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Documented multi-vendor agent failure causes financial loss >$10M at named enterprisecascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Stanford or comparable lab publishes paper measuring multi-vendor agent error rate >=30% in production-style benchmarkscascade #5 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Cascade: Major regulator (EU, US) issues binding multi-agent safety/interoperability rulecascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Sam Altman publicly raises possibility of $5T cluster fundraisepre #5 · hit · 2026-02-28 — OpenAI announces $110B in new corporate-partner investment (Nvidia/SoftBank/Amazon)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI valuation crosses $850B in private secondarycascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Stargate $500B project moves past initial $100B commitment milestonecascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Edison Scientific Kosmos: AI scientist running on GPUs serves >50K researcherspre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — CMR Surgical Versius validated on Cosmos-H simulation for clinical deploymentpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Frontier model solves first-Proof-Challenge math problem (5-page proof)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-13 — Zhipu GLM-5 (744B params) trained on 100K Huawei Ascend chipspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Moonshot Kimi K2.6 ships as 1T-param MoE open modelcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — >=5 distinct organizations release trillion-parameter-class modelscascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2025-09-15 — Uber launches data-labeling earning option for US driverspre #5 · hit · 2026-03-31 — uLabel/uTask platform deployed and operationalpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — 100K+ Uber drivers participate in AI labeling taskscascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — New non-driver workers onboard through Uber AI platformcascade #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Uber AI Solutions becomes top-3 global data labeling vendorcascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — GPT-5.5 system card + Deployment Safety Hub publishedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — GPT-5.5 Pro available in API (April 24, 2026)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — GPT-5.5 DAU/cost ratio enables broad adoption (>=10x developer activity vs 5.4)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Polymarket Mythos release-by-June-30 odds drop below 30%pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic discloses Pentagon/USG Mythos contract valuecascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Polymarket Mythos public release odds remain below 20% by Q3 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Mythos remains gated through end of 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-23 — Grok 5 publicly launchescascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic accelerates next-gen model release calendar (Claude 5 / Opus 5)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-29 — OpenAI catches up to Anthropic in benchmark performance on >=2 of {SWE-bench Verified, ARC-AGI, GPQA-Diamond}cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Anthropic safety / alignment incident reported during accelerated release pressurecascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: Anthropic loses pricing power; commercial deals re-priced down >10%cascade #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: Dario Amodei or Anthropic exec publicly addresses competitive-pressure release tradeoffspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-06-08 — WWDC 2026 keynote announces Gemini-derived Apple Intelligence / Foundation Modelpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-08 — Smaller-than-public framing: Apple may NOT credit Gemini lineage publiclycascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-01 — iOS 27 / iPhone 18 ships with Gemini-derived on-device modelcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Independent benchmarking confirms Gemini lineage in Apple Foundation Modelcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Anthropic releases Claude Mythos Preview (anchor model)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Anthropic ships smaller / faster Mythos-class variant (Sonnet/Haiku tier)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — General availability of Mythos beyond Project Glasswing partnerscascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Mythos pricing per token at or below current Opus 4.7 levelscascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Open-source community reverse-engineers / replicates Mythos efficiencycascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · partial · 2026-04-25 — Mixed evaluation: Tom's Guide / blind testing shows Claude Opus 4.7 still wins broader categoriespre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic ships Claude Opus 4.8 / 5.0 reclaiming benchmark leadcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Anthropic confirms Mythos withheld for internal/government usepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic, OpenAI, or Google DeepMind disclose internal compute share for self-improvementcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier model release lags published capability by >=3 monthscascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Compute moat acknowledged by US/EU regulatorcascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-30 — Liability phase verdict (advisory jury) returnedpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Settlement announcement OR Judge Rogers final ruling on liability phasecascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Sam Altman departs as OpenAI CEO (resignation, removal, or transition)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI confirmed to remain for-profit (post-litigation structure)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Cascade: OpenAI files S-1 for IPO post-litigation resolutioncascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-27 — Musk v. Altman / OpenAI trial begins in federal courtpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Trial verdict, settlement, or dismissal announcedcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Settlement terms or judgment include Musk-related equity provision in OpenAI Group PBCcascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — OpenAI files S-1 with SEC for trillion-dollar IPOcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Cascade: OpenAI completes IPO with Musk listed as cap-table partycascade #5 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Cascade: AI sector M&A or governance precedent established re: nonprofit-to-PBC conversionscascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issues ruling in Musk v OpenAIcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Court ruling explicitly addresses whether nonprofit donors retain enforceable rights after for-profit conversioncascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Appeal filed to Ninth Circuit by losing partycascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — First independent legal article or law review note cites the ruling as precedentcascade #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Cascade: State AGs (Delaware, California) update guidance on nonprofit-to-PBC conversions citing casecascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Cascade: Another large AI nonprofit-to-for-profit conversion proceeds (or is blocked) citing casepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Anthropic crosses $30B ARR by April 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Analyst end-of-2026 ARR projections converge to $80-100B rangecascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — $200B ARR target — explicit verification or repudiationcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Anthropic stretch target: cross $100B ARR by year-end 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · partial · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic preemptive offers at $850-900B valuation reported (April 2026 — partial of $2T thesis)pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Anthropic Series H or follow-on round closes at ≥ $900B post-moneypre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic implied valuation reaches ≥ $1.5T (within striking distance of $2T thesis)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-04-16 — Anthropic implied valuation reaches ≥ $2T (thesis hit)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic weighs $50B round at >=$900B valuationpre #1 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Anthropic board approves the >=$900B roundcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Anthropic revenue crosses OpenAI revenue (annualized run-rate)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic IPO filing or S-1 disclosedcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — OpenAI raises $122B funding round to scale capacitypre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — OpenAI launches $8/month entry plan to expand subscriber basecascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — ChatGPT WAU breaches 1B thresholdcascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: OpenAI announces 2B+ users across ChatGPT familycascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Frontier lab claims 'general knowledge worker' capabilitycascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cross-function enterprise benchmark suite shows AI ≥80% on 5+ categoriescascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major consultancy quantifies '50%+ knowledge worker tasks automatable'cascade #4 · pending · 2027-10-01 — BLS labor productivity statistics show AI-attributable inflectioncascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Frontier-model parameter count remains in 1T-10T band (no 100T model released)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Industry shift to MoE / smaller dense models confirmedpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — 100T+ parameter dense frontier model released (would falsify)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Summer 2026 benchmark composite shows >=10x advance over Jan 2026 baselinepre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Falsification: Summer 2026 benchmarks show <3x improvement (would be NEAR-MISS)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — 100x year claim publicly validated by >=1 independent analystcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Independent journalism documents AI chatbot bioweapon synthesis instructionspre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First documented real-world incident of AI-assisted CBRN attempt (attempted, not necessarily successful)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Regulatory response: at least one government imposes mandatory CBRN red-teaming for frontier modelscascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-31 — AI Incident Database adds ≥100 new incidents in three-month windowpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Stanford AI Index 2026 documents 8x growth in malicious-actor AI use vs 2022cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Deepfake-driven incidents continue to outnumber autonomous vehicle / facial recognition incidentscascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Major regulatory reporting requirement (EU AI Act incident reporting / US executive order) goes livecascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Six major AI companies decline to submit voluntary transparency reportspre #5 · hit · 2025-12-31 — OpenAI / Anthropic / Google publish zero environmental-impact datapre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — FMTI 2026 transparency average remains <=45/100 (no reversal)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2025-04-15 — Microsoft releases bitnet-b1.58-2B-4T on Hugging Facepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — First commercial LLM API deploys ternary weights at scalecascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-16 — Frontier model trained natively in ternary precision (>50B params)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Sub-1-bit (post-binary) LLM quantization achieves >70% accuracy parity vs FP16 on >=7B modelcascade #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Major lab (Microsoft, Meta, Google, NVIDIA) ships post-binary precision in production modelcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Hardware accelerator with native sub-binary support announcedcascade #5 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: 'Information per parameter' theoretical paper redefines compute-optimal scaling lawscascade #6 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Sub-binary quantized model deployed at >1B-user scalepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-16 — Anthropic guidance: 'use prompts for everything' published in migration docpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-16 — Opus 4.7 replaces fixed thinking budget with adaptive thinkingpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI / Google follow with reduced sampling-parameter surfacecascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cascade: prompt-engineering market doubles ($) in 12 months post-4.7cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-05-17 — GPT-5 / Claude Opus 5 release with claimed PhD-level reasoningcascade #2 · pending · 2026-05-17 — MMLU saturated (≥95%) by all frontier modelscascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — GPQA-Diamond benchmark crosses 90% by frontier modelcascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Aschenbrenner (or peer) publishes 'Situational Awareness II' or similar treatise marking AGI thresholdcascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearstarget window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift
67 plotted · 50 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to AMT.

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)
AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.