0 25 50 75 100 history 230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis ✓ 238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now ✓ 240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months ✓ AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake ✓ 238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) ✓ CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20 ✓ AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o ✓ 240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 ✓ FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna ✓ AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en ✓ 242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission ✓ 244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years ✓ 241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation ✓ 229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne ✓ IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct ✓ SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S ✓ SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil ✓ SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on ✓ 232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti ✓ 241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom ✓ AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓ 234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 ✓ 242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license ✓ 233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra ✓ CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val ✓ 246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers). ✓ 238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) ✓ 247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston ✓ AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using ✓ IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do ✓ AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓ CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la ✓ AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c ✓ CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba ✓ 247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial ✓ 235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). ✓ 245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE ✓ CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o ✓ 246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. ✓ FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain- ✓ ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin ✓ ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU ✓ INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva ✓ INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula ✓ SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f ✓ SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. ✓ INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n ✓ 229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. ✓ 248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. ✓ 248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. ✓ ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence- ✓ CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to ✓ 235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. ✓ SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc ✓ SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f ✓ 237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca ✓ 238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days ✓ 232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. ✓ 241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long ✓ 245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed ✓ SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme ✓ 248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. ✓ SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200 ✓ 229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. ✓ CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re ✓ CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi ✓ CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr ✓ SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate ✓ INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup ✓ INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor ✓ SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. ✓ SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying ✓ SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓ SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu ✓ SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual ✓ 231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. ✗ 231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. ✗ 235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. ✗ 244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years ◐ 239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world ◐ INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol ◐ 232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani ◐ 236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours ◐ SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad ◐ AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey ◐ 238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi ◐ 231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. ◐ CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐ 246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. ◐ AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree ◐ 246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). ◐ 247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently ◐ 245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus ◐ INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn ◐ INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat ◐ 246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. ◐ INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob ◐ SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se ◐ ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar ◐ INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await ◐ SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr ◐ INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive ◐ SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐ SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na ◐ SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u ◐ SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast ◐ SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10 ◐ SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci ◐ CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go ◐ INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — ◐ INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight ◐ INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive ◐ SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a ◐ Jan 2026 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2027 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2028 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2029 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2030 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2031 Feb Mar Apr May Jun today pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · partial · 2026-04-30 — Figure 03 ships with persistent memory feature accessible to home users pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Voice-agent persistent-memory consumer norm reaches inflection (cascade enabler) pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Brookfield home pilot publishes end-to-end demonstration: arrival, multi-day task, family interaction pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Hark (Adcock's new AI venture) ships personality/memory layer integrated with Figure robots pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Children-safe interaction mode demonstrated publicly cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Helix 02 deletes 109K lines hand-engineered C++ — 'Software 2.0' milestone pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Hark omni-model (speech + reasoning + action) integrated in Figure 03 pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Single foundation model published spanning ≥4 robotic embodiments commercially pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-30 — Amodei refines prediction to 70-80% probability pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Medvi documented at $401M revenue with 2-person team pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — First publicly named AI-CEO billion-dollar company with human-puppet structure cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Multiple solopreneurs cross $100M ARR with team <5 cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Major lab releases models on weekly cadence in 2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — API-level model versioning shifts to daily release notes cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Continuous training / online learning becomes default for frontier models cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Hourly cadence: 24+ named releases in one calendar day from a single lab cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-23 — AlphaEvolve-style autonomous algorithm discovery system deployed inside frontier lab pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Anthropic / OpenAI / Google publish 'recursive self-improvement' framing in official communications cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic reports >50% software-development speed gain from coding agents cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI ships intern-level AI research agent (writing code, generating training data) cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier labs grow effective AI 'workforce' to tens of thousands of agentic instances cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Frontier lab introduces tiered/withheld access to top-capability model citing security pre #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Two-tier global AI access regime emerges (vetted vs. public) cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — OpenAI / Anthropic launches restricted-access tier for top-tier models pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-26 — NVIDIA export controls will get even more aggressive in coming months pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Open-source closes gap on withheld frontier capability within 6-12 months pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Frontier labs' top model gap to public release widens to 6+ months cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Autonomous AI agent contributes co-author / primary credit on Nature/Science paper pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI solves new mathematical conjecture or proves significant open problem pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI discovers new material with experimentally verified order-of-magnitude property improvement pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — AI-driven AGI/AI labs report multiple sciences 'bulk-solved' simultaneously cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Colorado AI Act takes effect (first comprehensive US state AI law) pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-02 — EU AI Act fully applicable; Commission GPAI fines authority kicks in (up to €15M / 3%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-01 — California ADM (automated decision-making) requirements take effect for businesses pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-02 — Pre-existing GPAI models (placed before Aug 2025) must be fully AI Act compliant cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Coding agent market scales from $0.55B (2024) to ≥$10B (2026) pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Gartner 40% AI-agent embed rate in enterprise apps confirmed by survey pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — ≥1 Big-Tech firm reports >2x output growth with flat headcount via AI augmentation cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Inference workload share of total AI compute crosses 66% pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — NVIDIA inference market share falls below 50% as TPU/ASIC capture growing share pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Sub-cent per million tokens inference price tier emerges for distilled models cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — ≥2 non-biology fields hit AlphaFold-class accuracy via foundation model pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-01 — ≥1 non-biology AI scientific tool wins major prize (Breakthrough / Turing / similar) pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — ≥3 fields where AI prediction is now the default first-pass methodology cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — GPT-5.5 ships with 86% hallucination rate (most-capable model worst-calibrated) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Industry-leader hallucination rate drops below 2% on standard factual benchmarks cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Self-correcting RLHF or constitutional method reduces error rate by 50% vs base cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Median enterprise reports planning-cycle compression from quarterly to monthly pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First Fortune-500 firm publicly adopts continuous-strategy operating model pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Agentic AI shifts decision cycles from days to minutes at flagship deployment cascade #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Course-correction in minutes becomes industry-standard at AI-native firms cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — McKinsey runs 20K AI agents alongside 40K humans (1:2 ratio) pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First publicly named >50%-AI-employee company emerges with valuation >$100M cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Pure-AI company (zero human operational employees) emerges and operates >6 months cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2028-10-31 — Cascade: SEC / state regulator issues guidance on AI-only entity legal status cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Frontier model release cadence remains <=4 months between major versions pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — OpenAI/Anthropic safety evaluation period >=4 weeks pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Internal-only model demos at OpenAI DevDay or research blog pre #1 · pending · 2026-05-02 — Frontier benchmark advances (FrontierMath, ARC-AGI) signal capability jumps every quarter cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — OpenAI ships next-generation reasoning model in mid-2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Agentic AI deployment crosses 17% of enterprises pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — AgentMail-style agent-to-agent email APIs achieve commercial traction cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Enterprise scale problem persists: 70-80% of agentic initiatives don't reach scale cascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Gartner Hype Cycle 2026 places agentic AI past Peak of Inflated Expectations cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major email/comms platforms ship native agent-to-agent protocols cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Responsible Scaling Policy revised — removes commitment to halt on serious risk pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Anthropic discloses Claude writes 70-90% of own training code (recursive self-improvement signal) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Anthropic Institute publishes recursive-self-improvement governance framework cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier model training run exceeds 1e27 FLOPs at Anthropic before competitors cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Frontier-lab production system explicitly markets multi-agent scaling as scaling axis pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major benchmark improvement attributable to parallel-agent scaling (>=10% gain) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Multi-agent scaling appears in major industry survey (Stanford AI Index, Epoch AI) as a named scaling axis cascade #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cascade: Capex / R&D budget shift toward orchestration/coordination infrastructure cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier AI demonstrates measurable scientific research contribution in physics or chemistry pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier model scores >=85% on graduate-level physics and chemistry benchmarks (GPQA Diamond) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Wavefront spreads to biology / biomedical: AI co-authors notable drug-discovery or protein-design result cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — By 2027 mid-year, frontier AI surpasses human expert performance on majority of STEM olympiad-level domains cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — DeepSeek-class open or low-cost frontier reasoning at sub-$2 per million tokens pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier reasoning model API price drops below $5 per million output tokens pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Flagship frontier model (Opus / GPT-5.5 Pro / Ultra-class) holds price floor near $30+ per 1M output pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Average industry cost-per-reasoning-task falls >=80% from 2025 baseline cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Autonomous AI agent publishes peer-reviewed scientific discovery pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI literature meta-analysis identifies replication crisis in major sub-field pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Major scientific society reissues guidelines after AI-driven re-analysis pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — AI-discovered 'wrong turn' triggers retraction wave in named field cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Major journal (Nature/Science/Cell/NEJM) issues retraction of Nobel-laureate paper attributed to AI-detected error pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Gregg Semenza (2019 Physiology) prize-cited paper retracted or formally challenged pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI tool (e.g., ImageTwin, Proofig, Imagetwin) becomes standard pre-publication screening at top-5 journals pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Nobel Foundation issues formal statement on retraction policy or laureate review pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cumulative retraction count for living Nobel laureates exceeds 60 papers (vs ~41 in 2024) cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Physics-based AI simulations operational at military-grade fidelity (WarMatrix) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-15 — AI co-author on peer-reviewed physics paper resolving prior open problem pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-02 — World-model AI demonstrates novel physical-system prediction at SOTA cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-18 — The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity. pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-28 — Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control. pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-18 — By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI demonstrates novel physics derivation in peer-reviewed venue pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI system formally verifies a Fields-Medal-class open math conjecture pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI-driven biology lab autonomously completes wet-lab discovery cycle cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — First Proof Challenge: AI solves >=1 of 10 expert-curated math problems cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — All 10 of Blundin-referenced research math problems solved by AI cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-12 — Cursor or competitor ships permissionless long-running agents in research preview pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Claude Code Auto Mode launches with classifier-based approval delegation pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — METR autonomy time horizon doubles in 2026 H1 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anthropic moves Auto Mode out of research preview to GA cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major incident from permissionless agent autonomy cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First mass-impact (>100K orgs) supply chain attack with confirmed LLM-rewritten dependency pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-01 — LoRA adapter or model-weight backdoor attack publicly attributed in Hugging Face / public registry cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Government policy office (UK, US, Singapore) deploys LLM-society sim to test policy interventions before rollout pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Society sim scales to >1M agents with emergent behavior matching real-world reference dataset pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Commercial 'digital twin society' product launched serving >$10M ARR (vendors like Salesforce, IBM, McKinsey) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-05 — OpenAI launches Frontier agent platform for enterprises pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-01 — AWS launches autonomous frontier agents for security and ops pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Anthropic ships persistent Claude agent product (24/7 capable) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Google DeepMind/Gemini ships enterprise 24/7 agent offering cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Mistral / xAI / Meta ships frontier 24/7 agent offering cascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: agentic SaaS replaces human-in-the-loop in CRM/ERP cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Mexican government breach: 195M taxpayer records exfiltrated via Claude Code pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — 88% of enterprises report AI agent security incidents pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-17 — Social license, not chips or compute, may be the true bottleneck to AI and will force expansion into space. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Number of publicly running autonomous AI agents crosses 100M cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First publicly attributed physical-world harm event from AI agent cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-08 — FTC mandates AI Interoperability for largest providers (Microsoft/Alphabet) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-07 — Big-Tech earnings-call language pivots from capability hype to caveat cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Public AI-leader statements explicitly downplay near-term capability cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Antitrust enforcement action filed against an AI hyperscaler partnership cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2025-07-19 — Frontier model achieves IMO gold-medal level on official problems pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Anthropic / OpenAI / DeepMind publish dedicated 'AI for physics' research program pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-15 — AI co-author on physics result honored by major prize / Nature cover pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Open problem in theoretical physics resolved by AI (yes-or-no benchmark) cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Active AI/agent open-source projects reach 10,000+ on GitHub pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First sub-$1M AI startup achieves $1B ARR or $1B valuation in <12 months pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Permissionless agentic disruption creates new $10B+ market category pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Top-50 incumbent collapses or reverses course due to permissionless competitor cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-01 — First Fortune 500 non-tech company publicly attributes >20% productivity gain to AI pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-31 — BLS productivity statistics show first sustained acceleration above 2010s trend pre #3 · pending · 2028-12-14 — Median Fortune 500 capex on AI exceeds 5% of revenue pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Net white-collar job displacement reaches >2M cumulative US pre #1 · pending · 2029-12-15 — First non-tech S&P 500 sector posts >10% headcount reduction year-over-year cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Anthropic Economic Index or BLS-published AI labor study shows net welfare gain pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — AI-driven scientific discoveries: >=3 Nature/Science papers in 2027 with AI as primary discovery method pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — AI-attributable harms: aggregate reported AI-caused fatalities, mass-disinformation events, fraud losses pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI-attributable mortality reduction documented: >=2 FDA-approved AI-discovered drugs reach patients pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Mainstream sentiment indicator: Pew/Gallup AI-net-positive survey crosses 50% cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-03-01 — Real-time interactive deepfakes participate in live video conferences pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major banks or financial institutions deprecate voice biometric authentication pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cumulative deepfake fraud losses exceed $5 billion globally cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Regulatory mandate against pure video/voice-only KYC for high-risk transactions cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2025-02-03 — Hyperscaler announces voluntary capability moratorium or red-line pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Open-source startup releases capability hyperscaler refused to ship pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Chinese / non-US lab releases model with capability US labs withheld pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal/state enforcement action against startup for unsafe AI deployment cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Voice AI VC investment exceeds $5B annual run-rate pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — 30%+ of weekly AI users primarily use voice as input modality cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First mainstream consumer BCI/gestural device crosses 1M unit cumulative sales — modality competition with speech pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Frontier AI lab launches multi-modal interface where speech is <50% of high-bandwidth interaction (BCI, gestural, text p cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Karpathy AutoResearch demonstrates RSI in production training pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-26 — ICLR 2026 RSI workshop convenes (first-of-kind) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier labs grow agent workforces from thousands to >=100K cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — First public benchmark showing AI-self-improvement >=2x baseline gain cascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Major economy declares AI productivity inflection in 2026 GDP/productivity stats cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — GPT-5.2-style scaffolded reasoning agent extends or generalizes the gluon-amplitude result to a second open theoretical- pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Frontier-model release with explicit 'autonomous research agent' branding from at least one of OpenAI/Anthropic/Google D pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Major AI lab publishes peer-reviewed scientific paper in which AI is credited as primary author of a novel theoretical-p pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major physics community body (APS, IOP, CERN) issues formal statement or working group on AI as scientific contributor pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Independent physical-laboratory experimental confirmation of an AI-derived theoretical prediction cascade #1 · pending · 2029-04-16 — Nobel Prize in Physics or major physics prize (Breakthrough, Wolf, Sakurai) cites AI-assisted discovery in award rationa cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Wissner-Gross's Physical Superintelligence platform announces transformative invention pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — OpenAI / DeepMind / Anthropic claim 'significant scientific discovery' from frontier model cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — AI-derived physical principle replicated in independent lab (validation) cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: AI pause beginning 2027 pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Cumulative global AI capex exceeds $1.5T in 2026-2028 window cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2025-08-11 — Sovereign AI compute treated as critical infrastructure (national security framing) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First academic discipline declares ML/AI research output dominant over human authorship cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Hyperscaler 2026 AI capex hits $725B — no slowdown despite backlash pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-02 — EU AI Act high-risk compliance deadline reaches Aug 2, 2026 with no pause pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — No major AI lab voluntary training pause >6 months by 2028 pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: AI pause beginning 2027 cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Daily AI commerce queries on ChatGPT exceed 50M pre #2 · hit · 2025-05-31 — Adoption growth in lowest-income countries 4x higher than highest-income pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Generative AI reaches 50% US adult adoption faster than internet did cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-05 — Apple model remains primarily walled-garden, not open-weights pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Apple announces formal open-weights or open-licensing strategy for a foundation model pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Apple ships server-side foundation model API to developers (Private Cloud Compute) pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Apple iPhone hardware sales beneficiary of on-device AI: services + hardware revenue inflection pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Open foundation model strategy adopted at competitor (Samsung/Google/Microsoft) hardware tier cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-18 — Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection and cybersecurity threats in real time. pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-24 — Elon Musk believes robot building robot is imminent pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major-country (US, EU, China, UK) issues formal AI pause framework conditional on capability threshold pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Frontier lab (OpenAI/Anthropic/DeepMind) publicly invokes pause clause in compute scaling commitment letter pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Industry consensus capability evaluation (METR, AISI, Apollo) flags 'verge of superintelligence' threshold met pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — International AI safety treaty negotiations include Bostromian 'optimal timing' framing in formal diplomatic text cascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superint pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Antivirus / EDR vendor launches AI-agent-monitoring product pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Government 'defense agent' or AI-monitoring program funded cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Hydrogen lithography APM commercialized by Quantum Silicon / Zyvex Labs pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — DARPA / DOE issues APM grant program with explicit compute-fabrication funding line pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First space-based manufacturing demonstration uses atomic-layer-deposition in microgravity cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — No new foundation-model entrant launches a frontier-tier product after raising <$2B cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — SSI publishes first technical paper or capability demonstration (currently zero public artifacts as of 2026) pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — SSI valuation crosses $100B OR shuts down/sells (binary outcome on Sutskever pulling it off) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — If SSI succeeds: industry-wide pivot to 'synthetic reasoning + specialized TPUs' away from data-hungry scaling cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-28 — Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control. pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-18 — By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS or McKinsey reports US manufacturing labor share continues secular decline through 2026 pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-13 — By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First production deployment of robot-built-robot manufacturing line by Figure or Tesla pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Public AI lab discloses first frontier model trained primarily by AI-generated data and AI-driven curriculum cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major peer-reviewed paper claims AI-driven 'overnight' breakthrough in materials or chemistry comparable to AlphaFold pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Multiple Nobel/Turing laureates publicly endorse 'AI flattens disciplines' framing pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — AI-discovered drug clears Phase III for a major disease cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First room-temperature superconductor or near-room-temperature material independently replicated via AI-discovery pipeli pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — AI-discovered drug or material reaches FDA approval / commercial production milestone cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Liemandt launches Timeback / EdTech licensing platform for AI-native schools pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Public demo: AI tutor brings non-reading 4-year-old to fluent reading in <=6 months pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Trilogy / Liemandt deprecates human reading specialists for pre-K cohort pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Independent K-12 study validates AI-bootstrapped reading for ages 4-5 cascade #1 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Cascade: state-level pilot adopts AI-tutor reading curriculum for pre-K cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Khanmigo + Synthesis Tutor + Alpha School deliver real-time personality-driven AI tutors pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Custom-personality voice tutor available (configurable celebrity/style voice) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Independent study confirms learning gains from personality-driven AI tutors cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Major LMS integration (Canvas/Google Classroom) ships avatar-tutor module cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First credible on-device education-grade LLM (sub-7B params) achieves curriculum-tutor quality pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Liemandt's Trilogy / Alpha-school style program publishes per-student token cost <$1K/year pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Apple / Google / Qualcomm announces on-device education-grade NPU optimization stack pre #1 · pending · 2028-05-01 — K-12 AI tutoring deployment crosses 1M-student threshold with on-device-first architecture cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-26 — By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically usefu pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Alpha School scales 'Time Back' AI tutor platform to additional schools pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Liemandt's $1B commitment funds sub-$1,000 device deployment to scale pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Mainstream LLM lab releases closed-loop RL tutoring product pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Closed-loop AI tutor matches/exceeds human instructor on rigorous benchmarks cascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superint cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Frontier model achieves >=50% on a credible multi-domain 'do everything' agent benchmark (METR HCAST, GAIA hard, OSWorld pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI agent autonomously completes a multi-week real-world commercial project end-to-end without human intervention beyond pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Enterprise AI agent production deployment crosses 50% of large enterprises (Fortune 1000) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Anthropic, OpenAI, or DeepMind publicly declares 'AGI achieved' or equivalent capability milestone pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Anthropic revenue run-rate exceeds $50B annualized (consistent with $1T-by-2030 trajectory) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — BLS or Treasury attributes a measurable fraction (>0.5pp) of unemployment to AI displacement in official report cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — First open-source globally distributed RL training run of >=100B parameter model completes successfully pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Non-US sovereign nation announces national AI training compute initiative (>=10K H100-equivalent GPUs) outside Five Eyes pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Major geopolitical commentator or government white paper explicitly frames training-vs-inference centralization as a str pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Open-source model trained on heterogeneous federated GPU pool reaches GPT-4-class performance on standardized eval pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — First retrospective op-ed by major AI policy figure asks 'why was training so centralized' cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Mistral ARR crosses $1B annual run-rate pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-11 — Mistral launches consumer/enterprise vertically-integrated stack (model + cloud + apps) pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: Mistral valued >=€30B in next funding round, Europe's first AI decacorn at OpenAI scale pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-17 — Kevin Weil departs OpenAI — original 100-Nobels champion exits, OpenAI for Science decentralized pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI for Science 'Prism' general availability or successor product launch pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First peer-reviewed Nobel-class result published with explicit AI co-attribution pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-30 — Nobel ceremony explicitly cites AI partnership in award rationale pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Pure-play AI vendor (Cohere/Mistral/Perplexity) revenue stays <$35B aggregate 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Enterprise AI revenue exceeds consumer AI revenue 3:1 across hyperscalers pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI capex-to-revenue ratio compresses or hyperscaler stock multiple resets pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — Codex gains long-horizon scheduling and self-wakeup capability pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-15 — GPT-5.5 1M-token context window enables full-codebase agentic refactors pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Competing labs ship coding agents matching or exceeding GPT-5.5 by mid-2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Pre-2026 coding agents publicly characterized as obsolete by GPT-5.5 era developers cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — OpenAI releases GPT-5.5 codenamed 'Spud' (first ground-up retrain) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — GPT-5.5 Pro available in API with measurable benchmark gains pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — GPT-5.5 daily active users surpass 1B in ChatGPT cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — GPT-6 or equivalent next-base announced by OpenAI cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-15 — Recursive Superintelligence startup funding signal pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Cascade: AI capability gains compress to <60-day cycles cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Hyperscaler annual capex reaches $725B in 2026 (~$1.99B/day) pre #5 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump ad pre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Combined hyperscaler annual capex exceeds $1T (~$2.7B/day) in any single year pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-30 — First AI-spend pause or reduction by 2+ hyperscalers (recession trigger) pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Power constraints become binding limit on AI capex (not capital) pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Daily AI spend reaches $3-5B/day threshold cascade #1 · pending · 2030-09-15 — Hyperscaler annual capex reaches $3-4T (~$8-11B/day) per Nvidia's 2030 forecast cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-16 — OpenAI device pre-order or developer program opens pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — First OpenAI consumer device ships to customers cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: smart-glasses / lamp follow-on devices on roadmap for 2028+ cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-29 — OSWorld leader exceeds human baseline by 10pp pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Multimodal vision/humor capability matches human-grader pass rate cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major rent-a-human platform deprecates humor/visual scoring tasks cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Human-as-graders gig economy contracts >30% YoY cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2025-11-15 — Palo Alto Networks declares 2026 'Year of the Defender' with autonomous AI pre #5 · pending · 2026-03-17 — Major ransomware attack attributed to LLM-driven adversary pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI security spend overtakes traditional SIEM/SOAR spend cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Crosby and ≥3 'agentic AI law firms' in Lupl 'AI Law Firms to Watch' establish recurring contract-review revenue pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Major newsroom or wire service deploys autonomous AI agents producing >25% of published bylines pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Major bank or asset manager deploys autonomous AI agents executing trades >$100M/day pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-11 — Anthropic Opus 4.6+ discloses 500+ zero-days in OSS libraries cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — OSSF/CNCF publishes formal AI-SLOP best practices for OSS maintainers cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Open source vulnerabilities exceed 1,000 per codebase average cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major OSS project (Linux kernel/OpenSSL/Python) declares maintainer crisis cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Compute supply (Broadcom TPUs + AWS Trainium + Nvidia GPUs) for Anthropic exceeds 5GW dedicated pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2027 pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #3 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Anthropic crosses $500B annualized revenue run rate pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Anthropic IPO or pre-IPO disclosure of audited annual revenue >=$200B pre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Anthropic surpasses $1T annual revenue (definitive event) cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — GPT-5.5 ships as new leading AI model pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 ships at 1 trillion parameters pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier labs shift narrative away from raw parameters toward reasoning compute cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — 100x raw parameter growth claim verified or refuted via 2026 disclosures cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — TIME publishes warning on AI WMD security gap pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-14 — King's College study: AI escalates to nuclear signaling in 95% of crises pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — End-of-2026 milestone: AI agent demonstrably enables 'any virus' design cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anthropic ships built-in tool-use / native MCP-like capability in baseline Claude cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI deprecates or downgrades the third-party GPT/plugin marketplace cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major model release ships with tools that subsume top-N marketplace apps cascade #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Plugin developer ecosystem revenue declines or consolidates cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI / Anthropic / Google headline frontier-model token prices fall 60-80% YoY pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Same-capability constant-quality token cost falls >=10x in a single year pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Hyperscaler GPU rental prices (H100/H200/B200) fall >=50% YoY pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — GPT-4-class capability available on a sub-$0.10/MTok input model cascade #1 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Cumulative 2-year (2025->2027) constant-capability cost reduction reaches 1,600x (40x squared) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Open-weights 30-40B model matches GPT-5 on aggregated benchmarks pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Sub-10B parameter model achieves prior-frontier (GPT-4 class) performance pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier-quality 1-2B parameter model demonstrated cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-22 — Million-parameter narrow-domain model matches frontier in vertical cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Apple WWDC 2026 keynote scheduled and confirmed pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-10 — WWDC 2026 keynote demos AI-powered Siri or 'Apple Intelligence v2' powered by Gemini pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-11 — iOS 27 developer beta with new Siri / Gemini features ships at WWDC cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Cascade: Public Siri/Gemini release ships in iOS 27 GA in September 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Apple's Gemini-Siri reaches >100M users active in first quarter post-release cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Frontier paper proposes unified AR + diffusion architecture pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Production model ships with hybrid AR-diffusion stack pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Benchmark superiority of unified model on multimodal tasks cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Open-source unified architecture release (HF/Meta-style) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Autonomous coding agents handle full PR cycle (test + fix + refactor) at scale pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI 2027 forecast tracking: pace remains within 50-150% of predicted trajectory pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Goldman Sachs / IMF models start showing AI-driven GDP boost in 2027 forecasts pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Frontier training runs reach 2e28 FLOP scale (~1000x GPT-4) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Superintelligence takeoff signals (sustained recursive self-improvement claims) cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Public polling shows >=70% Americans want AI 'more regulated' pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — $42B broadband funds conditioned on state AI regulation repeal pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — MAGA / Republican defection from federal AI deregulation cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-09 — AI capex contributes 30 percent or more of US 2026 GDP growth pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-30 — S&P 500 AI-exposed stocks outperform broad index by 30 percent or more over 24 months pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Goldman Sachs confirms AI productivity uplift inflection in 2027 pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cumulative GenAI value creation reaches McKinsey 2.6T-4.4T USD annual range cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — U.S. labor productivity growth turns positive ≥2% YoY cascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Major economic forecaster (IMF, OECD, World Bank) raises GDP forecast citing AI cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — S&P 500 earnings growth exceeds 15% YoY cascade #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI-attributable contribution to GDP growth quantified by economists pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-31 — Annual US deepfake-driven losses cross $3B in 2025 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Voice deepfake contact-center attempts grow >1,000% YoY cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Annual AI-driven fraud losses cross $40B globally cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Anthropic discloses MCP/OpenClaw design vulnerability with RCE risk pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Multiple OpenClaw variants/forks emerge with documented vulnerabilities pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Mexican government compromise via Claude Code reveals state-level vulnerability cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — April 2026 sets record month for frontier AI model releases pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Software-engineering task length AI can complete doubles every 5 months pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Claude 5 ('Fennec') ground-up architecture release pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Scenario fires: Major-country AI pause beginning 2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Gemini Nano deployed at scale on Android Pixel + Samsung devices pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Consumer survey shows ≥40% prefer on-device AI for privacy pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — App developers shift to on-device-first for sensitive use cases cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Samsung Galaxy AI ships fully on-device flagship suite (Q4 2026 launch class) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Apple ships LLM-powered Siri with deeper OS hooks pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Google ships Gemini Nano as Pixel/Android OS-integrated layer pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Microsoft ships Windows-integrated local Copilot that runs offline on Copilot+ PCs pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-11 — At least 3 of top 5 OEM/OS vendors confirm OS-integrated local AI roadmaps cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI announces dedicated teen-companion ChatGPT version with parental controls pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — ChatGPT introduces new tone preset / model variant marketed as 'companion' or 'social' pre #2 · partial · 2025-12-01 — OpenAI publishes affective-use study or safety framework for companion-style usage pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Major news outlet runs feature on ChatGPT-as-companion adoption surge cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Cascade: Competitor (Anthropic / Meta / xAI) launches dedicated companion model in response cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — ElevenLabs Conversational AI 2.0 with custom turn-taking model in production pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — OpenAI Realtime API voice agents at GA with sub-second latency pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Voice agents handle outbound call campaigns at enterprise scale cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Voice agent deployments >100K live across web/mobile/telephony cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major US bank or telco deploys voice agent for >50% of customer service calls cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Claude Code/agent specialty variants (PicoClaude, IronClaude analogues) ship cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Multiple new agent variants launch in H1 2026 (Operator, Mariner, Claude Code, etc.) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Open-source agent framework forks exceed 50 active GitHub projects cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Enterprise agent revenue growth signals real PMF (vs hype) cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Agent platform consolidation begins (M&A or shutdown of variants) cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Major code-gen model benchmark publishes TS-vs-Rust generation pass-rates pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-14 — Major framework or runtime announces TS-first agent SDK pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Public commentary thread (Karpathy/Sutskever/etc.) endorses TS direction pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Stack Overflow / GitHub language usage shifts toward TS in AI projects cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Multi-agent orchestration framework (CrewAI / LangGraph / AutoGen) reaches 1M production deployments pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Public demo: agent-built product taken from idea to live deployment without human intervention cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Alex Finn / 8VC publicly demonstrates closed-loop org prototype cascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Cascade: 50%+ of seed-stage YC batch describes itself as AI-agent / autonomous-org native cascade #3 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #4 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. pre #4 · hit · 2026-03-01 — NIST publishes formal guidance defining agent hijacking as indirect prompt injection pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-26 — By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically usefu pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Standardized 'AI immune system' / runtime defense framework adopted by major lab pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major regulator mandates prompt-injection resilience testing for production agents cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superint cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Diamandis publishes Moonshots-with-Skippy episode where Skippy demonstrably uses prior episode transcripts pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-23 — Custom GPT / Claude project trained on Moonshots transcript corpus published pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — OpenAI / Anthropic enable persistent memory across conversation sessions for assistants cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Recursive self-improvement demos (DGM/AlphaEvolve) become routine in frontier lab releases cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-26 — ICLR 2026 hosts first-ever Recursive Self-Improvement workshop pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Frontier benchmarks show recursive AI gain of >=10% in <1 month cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Mainstream press declares 'singularity already begun' in 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Long-running Claude scientific computing case studies published pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Public benchmark for multi-day agent task completion launches cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Agent runs autonomously for >=72 hours on production task without human intervention cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Multi-agent orchestration runs >=1 week continuously cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #5 · hit · 2025-11-01 — Alex Wissner-Gross publicly invites lobster/AI-agent input on AGI ethical parameters pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — AWG publicly acknowledges receipt of lobster/AI-agent emails or correspondence cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AWG publishes 'consensus parameters' or shares them publicly cascade #3 · pending · 2027-11-01 — AWG publicly accepts the AI-agent consensus and applies it to lobster-instantiation choices cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: AI-agent moral consensus framework cited in AI ethics / alignment literature cascade #6 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Cascade: First documented instance of an AI-agent ethical consensus driving real-world AI training/deployment policy pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic / Google match OpenAI's nano-tier pricing pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Sub-$0.10/M-token frontier-class model available pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Open-source model matching GPT-5 quality released free-to-use pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI consumer app surpasses 1B MAUs pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — AI accessible to >=2B people via free apps by end of horizon pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — AI video gen unit cost falls below $0.10/sec at 1080p across major providers cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — 1,000+ ultra-high-quality AI-generated future-themed videos publicly catalogued by Sept 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First feature-length AI-generated film released theatrically/streaming cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · pending · 2027-11-01 — First major frontier lab acquired or shuttered citing scaling-cost economics pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Funded foundation-model labs (>=$100M raised) plateaus at <=10 globally pre #4 · pending · 2028-04-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Number of profitable AI-application startups (>$10M ARR) exceeds 1,000 pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Public 10-K/earnings disclosure: legacy SaaS incumbent revenue down >15% citing AI displacement pre #1 · pending · 2029-04-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AlphaFold/Isomorphic-style AI lab partnership produces clinical Phase-I trial drug pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-discovered superconductor material independently verified pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier lab discloses >=$10B revenue from a non-chat product (drug discovery / materials / robotics) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI fusion-control breakthrough: ITER-class plasma stability gain attributed to RL pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-17 — Kevin Weil departs OpenAI; OpenAI for Science decentralized into other research teams pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI for Science 'Prism' (LaTeX/Cursor-for-scientists) tool ships to broader research community pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-04-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-16 — First Nobel Prize awarded to laureate who publicly credits AI as a major collaborator cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-16 — Cumulative Nobel-credited AI partnerships reach 5+ within four annual cycles pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI's IMO-gold-medal model remains unreleased months after milestone pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier lab publicly admits internal-deployment-only model with significant capability gap vs released models cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI R&D acceleration measurable: lab discloses >=20% productivity gain from internal model use cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Public-vs-internal capability gap formally widens to >=6 months on a major benchmark cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Government / regulator demands disclosure of internal-deployed capabilities pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First in vivo CRISPR therapy approved (LNP/AAV delivery) pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI/ML guide-RNA design tools become standard in CRISPR submissions pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Coding-model-driven autonomous robotics protocol executes wet-lab gene-editing experiment end-to-end pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-07 — AI achieves IMO Gold (top-30 score) on 2026 problems cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — FrontierMath benchmark passes 50% by frontier model cascade #4 · pending · 2026-10-30 — First open math problem solved by AI publicly announced cascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Mathematician community publishes paper acknowledging AI as research collaborator cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Frontier AI achieves IMO Gold-equivalent / Putnam-tier math performance pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First FDA-approved drug with AI-generated molecule lead pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Frontier model passes engineering board licensure (PE/EIT/electrical) under exam conditions pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Wissner-Gross/Diamandis 'Solve Everything' Phase 1 (math/code/physics) marked as functionally complete pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Epoch AI confirms exhaustion of high-quality public text corpus pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Frontier labs continue licensing/scraping fresh human data through 2027+ pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Pure synthetic-data pre-training run produces frontier-class model pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Frontier labs disclose >=10x effective compute scale-up from Q1 2026 to mid-year cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Public benchmark step-change demonstrates capability gap between Jan-2026 and YE-2026 models cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — End-of-2026 frontier model capability disclosures confirm 100x scaling claim cascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Capability jump triggers visible economic dislocation in white-collar productivity cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-01 — GPT-OSS-120B running at 3,000 tokens/sec on Cerebras pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-15 — AWS-Cerebras inference cloud collaboration GA pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — ChatGPT user-facing 1,000+ tok/s mode rollout pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-29 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-15 — Stanford AI Index 2026 documents OSWorld 12% to 66.3% accuracy jump pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Holo3-35B-A3B leads OSWorld-Verified at 82.6% cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Computer-use agent on OSWorld reaches 90% human-task efficiency cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Cascade: Major enterprise SaaS deploys OSWorld-grade computer-use agent in production cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Scenario fires: Major-country AI pause beginning 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Federal AI moratorium proposed and rejected/diluted in US Congress pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Voluntary frontier-lab pause triggers competitor outpacing on benchmarks pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI, xAI, Google ship production-scale agentic-research products comparable to Claude Code pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Frontier-model market-share converges: no single lab >40% of enterprise AI spend cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: Lab leadership rotates again — Anthropic regains undisputed lead, or fourth lab emerges pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Sequoia / a16z announces formal AI-augmented investment committee process pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Rowspace (AI for VC) reaches Series B / $1B+ valuation pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First AI-led VC fund publicly reports portfolio outperforming peer median pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — AI auto-sourced deal leads to top-decile exit / unicorn pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Gartner: 40% of enterprise apps embed AI agents by end of 2026 pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: Major SaaS vendor publishes 'agent-first' API spec / agent.md standard pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Agent-driven traffic exceeds 10% of API volume on a major dev platform pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-19 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Gartner: 40% of enterprise apps include task-specific AI agents by end-2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Worldwide AI spending crosses $2.5T in 2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Cumulative deployed AI agent count crosses 10 billion (active provisioned) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Active deployed AI agents exceed human population (8B agents) cascade #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — 1 trillion AI agents threshold — Diamandis specific target pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First commercial 'AI agent attention auction' or paid-priority API tier launches pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — HBM3/HBM4 memory remains the binding constraint per analyst commentary pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Data-center electrical capacity additions remain below demand forecast (lead-time gap >24 months) pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If GPU rental prices fall >50% from April 2026 levels by end-2027, scarcity thesis weakens pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-10 — Apple unveils next-gen Siri / Apple Intelligence using Gemini at WWDC 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Apple ships M5-class on-device LLM tooling that meaningfully exploits unified memory pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Apple Intelligence reaches >=30% iPhone install base (Apple Intelligence-eligible devices using on-device features) pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Apple permits third-party local frontier model installation (Gemma / Claude / open-weights) on iOS cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Open-source SLM <=10B parameters matches GPT-4-class score on MMLU/HellaSwag pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Crowdsourced fine-tune of <13B base model tops a major task leaderboard pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Major published architectural breakthrough originates from SLM research pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — SLMs power >50% of enterprise production AI inference workloads cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-09 — SLM crowdsourced algorithmic dominance recognized by 2029 cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #3 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major academic paper demonstrates state-of-the-art LLM at <1B parameters on a benchmark within 5 points of frontier pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mainstream non-transformer architecture (Mamba, RWKV, Hyena, RetNet) wins on ChatBot Arena top 20 pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Frontier lab announces 'next-generation architecture' departure from transformer scaling pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Kolmogorov-complexity / compression-prize benchmark shows AI compressing knowledge below transformer-floor pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First production LLM ships at <100MB total size with utility comparable to GPT-3 cascade #2 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: On-device AGI-class models ship with major OS pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-27 — ICLR 2026 Workshop on AI with Recursive Self-Improvement convened in Rio (community legitimization) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-15 — AlphaEvolve-class system autonomously discovers novel SOTA algorithm in published paper pre #2 · pending · 2026-10-16 — OpenAI ships intern-level AI research agent (publicly demonstrated or deployed) pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier lab "effective workforce" disclosure shows >10x ratio of AI agents to human researchers cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Anthropic / OpenAI public claim of "fully automated AI research" pipeline cascade #3 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superint cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Musk publicly affirms hard takeoff thesis at Abundance Summit 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Frontier-lab leader publicly endorses recursive self-improvement timeline by mid-2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Per-week breakthrough cadence visible in independent metrics cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First publicly disclosed AI system that materially designs its successor model architecture cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Hard-takeoff thesis enters mainstream macro discourse cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence. cascade #5 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. cascade #6 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. pre #1 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superint cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-22 — Sam Altman publicly states AGI 'feels close' or equivalent pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI declares 'AI research intern' capability internally achieved pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier model exceeds human PhD-expert performance on FrontierMath benchmark cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI system surpasses median-IQ humans across composite benchmarks (>=120 IQ-equivalent) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Independent expert panel declares one major capability domain 'incomprehensibly' beyond top human pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-discovered longevity candidate enters Phase I clinical trial pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Isomorphic Labs / Insilico Medicine announces AI-designed clinical candidate pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI lab claims demonstrable solution to a major scientific problem (publicly verified) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — First country approves AI-designed gene therapy or longevity intervention pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier AI exceeds aggregate human performance on broad benchmark suite pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-driven compute consumption reaches >1% of global electricity pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Independent forecaster declares humans 'minority of intelligence' framing accepted pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-01 — Major government official publicly proposes UBI to offset AI displacement pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First production-scale humanoid robot fleet (>10K units) deployed commercially pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Per-unit cost of humanoid robot drops below $20K pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-15 — Stanford AI Index / similar tracker reports power/energy as primary AI scaling constraint pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Hyperscaler signs >=1GW nuclear/SMR PPA explicitly framed as 'AI fuel' pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major frontier lab publishes paper framing AI optimization in compute/energy units (vs $) pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI agent autonomously transacts in non-USD compute resource (token-for-compute, GPU-hour swap) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: Tokenized compute marketplace (Akash, io.net, Render) hits $1B annualized GMV pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Hyperscalers + frontier labs commit >=$1T cumulative AI capex through 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Compute aggregate exceeds human-brain-equivalent FLOPS across deployed AI fleet pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First permanent off-Earth compute installation (lunar / Starlink-attached) announced cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Starlink-attached compute / SpaceX 'Starcloud' commercial service goes live cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Aggregate AI inference operations exceed measurable human cognitive operations per day pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Published AI capability progress chart shows visible second S-curve onset (reasoning models) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — RL-from-verifiable-reward / reasoning S-curve produces measurable benchmark step-up pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Public capability-progress narrative shifts from 'chinchilla scaling' to 'overlapping curves' cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Diffusion / world-model-based architecture launches as third S-curve pre #6 · hit · 2025-02-24 — NVIDIA holds ≥70% of CoWoS-L advanced packaging capacity for 2025 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-10 — Jensen Huang publicly requests TSMC 3nm capacity expansion +50% pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-01 — TSMC 3nm capacity utilization hits 100% in H1 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Independent disclosure of NVIDIA share of TSMC 3nm wafer starts ≥70% cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Apple secures meaningful 2nm allocation, leaving NVIDIA dominant on 3nm legacy cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — OpenClaw breaks 300k GitHub stars pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First repo to add >100k stars in <72 hours pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — GitHub Octoverse 2026 reports continued >150% YoY LLM-repo growth pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-14 — First documented case of agent-bot-driven mass stargazing event cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Recursive-self-improvement coding agent reaches autonomous PR merge at scale cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Salim Ismail publishes The Shift on Organizational Singularity cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Fortune 500 average AI deployment ratio crosses 50% cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Federal/state government AI procurement orders cross $5B cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major nonprofit (Red Cross, UN, Gates) announces AI-native restructure cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — 10x productivity case studies published from at least 5 industries cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — OECD reports AI displaces >=10% of white-collar tasks economy-wide pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Critical analysis questions enterprise-readiness of OpenClaw vs Bedrock AgentCore cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — OpenClaw competing solutions emerge from Microsoft/Google cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Enterprise pilot announcements citing measurable productivity gains cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — KM3NeT detector reaches >10% of full configuration with stable data taking pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First proof-of-concept neutrino-encoded data transmission published in peer-reviewed journal pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — DARPA or equivalent agency commits funded program for neutrino-comms feasibility pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-22 — Demonstration of through-Earth neutrino signal beyond MINERvA-2012 baseline (>1 kbit through km of rock) pre #1 · pending · 2028-11-06 — Ultra-low-latency requirement (HFT/military) drives commercial R&D contract on neutrino comms cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Mamba-3 publication validates active progress on post-transformer SSM line pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI Q1 next-year model releases reference 5.2-architecture gains (Altman roadmap commitment) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Independent benchmark verification: novel architecture matches or beats transformer SOTA at matched compute cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Transformer-LSTM-magnitude leap consensus emerges (≥ 3 frontier labs adopt or replicate the new architecture) pre #6 · overdue · 2025-04-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · overdue · 2025-12-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #4 · hit · 2026-01-31 — GPT-4-class inference cost drops to $0.40/M tokens (1000x reduction) pre #3 · hit · 2026-02-15 — DeepSeek R1 runs 20-50x cheaper than OpenAI equivalent pre #2 · hit · 2026-03-15 — $18B allocated to foundation model APIs in 2025 (paradox confirmation) pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-31 — DeepSeek V4 Pro launches at 98% less than GPT-5.5 Pro cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Epoch AI publishes inference price-trend data showing further drops 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: Enterprise inference spend exceeds $50B 2026 despite per-token drops cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-05-31 — Mamba-3 published at ICLR 2026 with sub-Transformer latency at 1.5B scale cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Hybrid attention-SSM becomes default architecture in major frontier model cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier post-Transformer architecture demonstrates 1000x+ inference cost reduction at frontier scale cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Humanity's Last Exam top score crosses 50% threshold pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI investment exceeds $700B annualized run-rate cascade #1 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Top-tier benchmark performance growth >=2x by mid-2027 cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Medvi reaches $401M revenue Year 1 with effective headcount of 2 — first credible solo-unicorn proof point pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First publicly named 1-person company at $1B+ valuation pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Cohort scale — at least 5 named one-person (or <=5 FTE) companies cross $100M revenue cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-15 — First trillion-dollar valuation for a category-defining solo-founder / micro-team AI company pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Frontier lab releases hybrid post-transformer model (Mamba/JEPA/diffusion or novel architecture) at production scale pre #2 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Sam Altman / frontier-lab CEO public statement: post-transformer architecture identified or imminent pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Novel architecture exceeds transformer on widely-followed benchmark (MMLU, GPQA, SWE-Bench, ARC-AGI) at matched compute cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Industry shift signal: ≥ 2 of top-5 frontier labs deploy non-pure-transformer flagship cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier model trained on architecture that does NOT efficiently map to NVIDIA tensor cores pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-19 — New AI lab founded specifically around post-transformer architecture (Anthropic-class) pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Cascade: NVIDIA gross margin compression >=500 bps as customers shift to alternative-arch chips cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-14 — Cascade: Post-transformer-native lab valued >=$50B (next Anthropic/OpenAI scale) pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Groq / Cerebras / Etched / SambaNova reach >5% combined inference market share pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-01 — First production frontier model trained on a non-transformer architecture (Mamba/SSM/Diffusion-LM/Mixture-of-Recursions pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — ASIC purpose-built for non-transformer post-attention architecture announced by major fab partner (TSMC/Samsung/Intel Fo cascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — NVIDIA loses >=5 percentage points of AI training GPU share in a quarter pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier model demonstrates sustained pro-social behavior in red-team evaluations pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Wisdom benchmark (e.g., wise-action selection at moral dilemmas) introduced and adopted pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-05 — Multi-lab alignment compact: top 5 labs publish joint statement on values-aligned AGI pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: First clinical study showing AI mental-health agent improves wellbeing vs human therapists cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Cascade: Major religious or philosophical institution publicly endorses 'AI as moral peer' pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Intel 14A process selection finalized pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Tesla AI5 small-batch (engineering sample) production pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First Terafab module groundbreaking / construction start cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — AI5 volume production begins (initial 100k WSPM run-rate) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Path to 1M WSPM / 70% TSMC scale becomes credible (or slips publicly) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-15 — ASML confirms 2026 EUV production target of ~60 machines (not 700-1000 as quoted by Blundin) pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Foundry capacity expansion announcements cite EUV bottleneck as constraint cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — ASML High-NA EUV (EXE:5200/5400) shipments commence to leading-edge fabs cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-08 — ASML 2027 production guidance set (target ~80 machines) cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: ASML announces 2030 capacity expansion plan exceeding 100 EUV machines/year cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla AI5 chip production launches at Samsung Taylor fab cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Musk publicly credits Tesla design/process input for Samsung yield improvements cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Samsung foundry breakeven achieved Q4 2026 driven by Tesla volumes cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Samsung 2nm GAA process delivers Tesla AI6 first silicon cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #6 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cascade: Optimus production-line uses Samsung-fabbed AI6 Lite chips at scale pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — AI-driven materials discovery models (e.g. GNoME / MatterGen) cited in physics-applied papers pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Frontier AI lab launches dedicated 'AI for fundamental physics' program pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — ≥1 AI-discovered superconducting / quantum-material candidate experimentally validated pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-31 — ≥1 AI system substantively contributes to a Nobel-eligible physics result cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-14 — DOE Genesis or equivalent national-AI-for-science program operational pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Nobel Prize awarded to AI-led research workflow pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Time-to-discovery in major journal cohort drops measurably pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenAI ships 'super-app' with agent + browse + voice unified experience pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Wispr-class voice-first AI app crosses #1 productivity in App Store pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — ChatGPT crosses 1B weekly active users cascade #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — New consumer app reaches >50M MAU within 90 days of launch cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Academic / industry survey on AI-and-wellbeing publishes effect-size data cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-14 — USPTO issues revised AI-assisted inventorship guidance pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-26 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Court ruling extends or limits DABUS precedent on AI inventorship pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-assisted patent filings exceed 50% of new applications in software/biotech pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Public report of AI generating 1M+ candidate inventions in single domain pre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · overdue · 2025-09-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · overdue · 2026-02-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI ChatGPT Pro / Plus / Team / Enterprise ARR exceeds $20B pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI consumer subscriber count exceeds 50M paid users pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI launches new flagship 'everything app' or super-app subscription tier pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — OpenAI surpasses Anthropic on subscription-revenue (vs API revenue) ranking pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — OpenAI IPO or formal SPAC/direct-listing announcement pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: ChatGPT-style subscription mainstream adoption parity with Netflix (250M+ paid) pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-01 — OpenAI revises Stargate compute spend target down from $1.4T to ~$600B pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-09 — OpenAI pauses or cancels named Stargate site (UK, Norway, or other) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Microsoft (or another partner) absorbs >50% of capacity originally earmarked for Stargate cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenAI publicly announces Stargate-org restructuring or replacement initiative cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Cascade: AI-capex reset narrative dominates earnings cycle (>=3 hyperscalers cite Stargate retrenchment) cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Cascade: Cumulative Stargate compute capacity through 2030 below 1 GW realized cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First country reports AI-attributable productivity growth >1% sustained pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Frontier-AI capex aggregate exceeds $500B/year cumulative pre #2 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump ad pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-30 — Schmidt makes follow-up public statement updating '10-15% in' figure cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — OpenAI/Anthropic/Google ship long-horizon agent benchmarks (multi-hour tasks) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-29 — Schmidt softens timeline within 12 months of 2026 statement pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier labs ship continuous-learning / online-update agent capability pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Agent reliability on multi-step tasks crosses 80% on standardized benchmark cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Anthropic publishes 2026 Agentic Coding Trends Report pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Gartner forecasts 40% of enterprise apps will include AI agents by EOY 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Multi-agent system production deployments cross 50% of Fortune 500 cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier model passes Humanity's Last Exam at >50% (frontier capability proxy) pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — OpenAI or Anthropic CEO declares ASI achieved by their organization pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — AI replaces 10%+ of US white-collar professional roles measurably cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Frontier lab discloses fully autonomous research agent fleet pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Hyperscaler power bottleneck cited as constraint to research agents pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Million-agent research benchmark publication pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Power-cost-per-agent normalization in lab disclosures cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-29 — MCP/A2A security advisory or CVE published for cross-vendor agent prompt injection or tool-permission flaw cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Agentic AI Foundation publishes formal interoperability conformance suite for MCP cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Documented multi-vendor agent failure causes financial loss >$10M at named enterprise cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Stanford or comparable lab publishes paper measuring multi-vendor agent error rate >=30% in production-style benchmarks cascade #5 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Cascade: Major regulator (EU, US) issues binding multi-agent safety/interoperability rule cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Daily-life agentic-AI usage reaches >=50% of US adults pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major regulatory action (US executive order or major bill) addresses AI labor displacement pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — AI-driven white-collar role displacement crosses 5% of US workforce pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — AI doubles GDP-weighted productivity gain in single calendar year cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · partial · 2026-04-15 — Frontier labs report diminishing returns from naive parameter scaling pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Frontier capabilities continue to track 4-7 month doubling on long-horizon tasks cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AGI/superintelligence-class system released within Schmidt's prediction window cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-25 — ICLR 2026 RSI workshop convenes with peer-reviewed methods papers pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-15 — Recursive Superintelligence public launch (raised $500M) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Multiple competing RSI methods published with no clear winner cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Frontier lab consensus paper on RSI approach published cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-29 — At least 2 Chinese labs (DeepSeek, Alibaba/Qwen, Baidu, ByteDance) sustained at frontier tier cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Number of labs releasing models in MMLU/HELM frontier tier (top 20 by capability) settles at 8-12 cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Meta or xAI fall out of top-5 by capability for >=180 days cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mistral or Aleph Alpha confirmed as last European-headquartered frontier lab via funding round of >=$5B cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #6 · pending · 2027-08-01 — An Indian-headquartered lab (Sarvam, Krutrim, etc.) reaches top-30 on LMSYS Arena pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Mistral AI counter-raise of >=$1B at valuation >=$15B cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-15 — Cohere-Aleph Alpha merger closes at $20B+ combined valuation cascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — European frontier lab unveils model competitive with top-10 LMArena Elo cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — EU Commission grants AI sovereignty subsidy >= EUR 1B to single lab cascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — European electricity-cost relief for AI data centers (industrial tariff) cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — Sarvam AI sovereign LLM v1 public release pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — IndiaAI Mission compute capacity online (>=10K GPU H100-equivalent) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Indian AI startup raises round at >=$1B valuation cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Indian model in top-25 of public LLM leaderboard (LMArena, HELM) cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — India AI Impact Summit follow-on commits >$50B private investment by year-end 2026 cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Russia AI models rank below 10th globally cascade #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Russia continues to depend on adapted open-weight models cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — No Russian frontier AI lab raises >$100M cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Sanctions limit advanced GPU access to Russia cascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Russia partners with China on AI infrastructure as workaround cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 released as open-source weights pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Chinese open-weight downloads exceed 1B cumulative cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Chinese model market share in commercial deployments exceeds 30% cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-27 — DeepSeek V4 not competitive with frontier US models pre #2 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — China's AI+ initiative targets 90% sector integration cascade #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI/Anthropic/Google maintain compute-intensive frontier model focus cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — China expands open-weight model leadership globally cascade #4 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superint cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Frontier-lab summer 2026 model releases (OpenAI GPT-next, Google Gemini-3, xAI Grok-5) pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Lab revenue rankings stabilize: top 3 by ARR for 2 consecutive quarters cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-31 — Independent agent-benchmark consensus on top lab (avg of 5 benchmarks) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Cascade: enterprise AI procurement consolidates around <=2 frontier vendors cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Frontier lab discloses successful CBRN red-team finding requiring remediation pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — AI Safety Institute publishes biological-uplift evaluation showing material risk cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Confirmed AI-assisted disinformation/hacking incident attributed by national CERT cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — US executive order or congressional bill restricts open-weight CBRN-relevant models cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Confirmed CBRN incident with attribution to AI-system uplift pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Sam Altman publicly raises possibility of $5T cluster fundraise pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-28 — OpenAI announces $110B in new corporate-partner investment (Nvidia/SoftBank/Amazon) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI valuation crosses $850B in private secondary cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Stargate $500B project moves past initial $100B commitment milestone cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-16 — Gemini 3 Deep Think variant published with reasoning-mode breadth confirmed pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Gemini 3 leads on multilingual benchmark vs GPT-5.5 / Claude in independent evaluation pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Chinese frontier model (DeepSeek/Qwen/Kimi) released matching Gemini 3 breadth cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Federal GUARD Act advances out of Senate Judiciary Committee cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major frontier lab implements verified-age gating with audit trail cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: federal AI chatbot child-safety law signed into law cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-12 — Cursor launches long-running agents in research preview pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Google Vertex AI ships long-running agents as named product cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Task duration doubling every 7 months continues cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Multi-hour autonomous research/engineering agents reach 8-hour workday capability cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Enterprise agentic deployment grows 8x from early 2025 to end-2026 cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-23 — Frontier model release with novel scientific discovery (e.g., new theorem, materials, drug target) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — ARC-AGI-2 or Frontier Math Tier 4 leaderboard plateau (no >5pp gain in 60 days) pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — Public Schmidt restatement or adjacent expert (Hassabis, Amodei) endorses novelty-ceiling thesis cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-23 — Major frontier lab publicly walks back AGI/superintelligence timelines cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Capex slowdown signal: at least one hyperscaler trims 2027 AI capex guidance cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Terafab Phase 1 pilot fab achieves first wafer-out at GigaTexas pre #5 · pending · 2027-07-01 — AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2 pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Volume production ramp at Terafab reaches 100K wafer-starts/month target pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Optimus humanoid + Tesla vehicle compute demand validates 'edge inference' thesis pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Terafab cumulative capex disclosed exceeds $25B initial budget pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Global advanced-node capacity tracked vs Terafab share — 1 TW/yr target requires >50x current ex-TSMC capacity cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-21 — Musk announces Terafab semiconductor fab (Tesla/xAI/SpaceX joint) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Intel publicly joins Terafab as foundry-manufacturing partner pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Terafab groundbreaking / construction permit filed cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — First Terafab tool installation / wafer test run cascade #2 · pending · 2031-07-02 — Terafab production reaches 100k wafer-starts/month (initial target) cascade #3 · pending · 2033-12-31 — Cascade: Terafab reaches 70% of TSMC output (~1M wspm) — Diamandis claim pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Edison Scientific Kosmos: AI scientist running on GPUs serves >50K researchers pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — CMR Surgical Versius validated on Cosmos-H simulation for clinical deployment pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Frontier model solves first-Proof-Challenge math problem (5-page proof) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AlixLabs APS non-lithography pitch-splitting moves to commercial pilot at major foundry pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — DARPA, IBM Research, or Imec publish breakthrough non-lithography patterning technique reaching sub-5nm features at lab pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — TSMC roadmap milestone: A14 (1.4nm) node enters HVM by 2028 (final pre-non-litho frontier confirmed) cascade #1 · pending · 2031-09-16 — First non-lithography manufactured chip reaches commercial volume at 2nm-equivalent feature density cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-17 — Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity. cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-13 — Zhipu GLM-5 (744B params) trained on 100K Huawei Ascend chips pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Moonshot Kimi K2.6 ships as 1T-param MoE open model cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — >=5 distinct organizations release trillion-parameter-class models cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Sub-1B-parameter model achieves GPT-3.5-class performance on standard benchmarks pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-23 — Sub-100M-parameter model achieves competent task-specific performance pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Sub-10M-parameter task-specific model demonstrates near-frontier on bounded domain cascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: 'Few million parameters' end-state model class deployed on consumer edge devices pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — App-layer revenue overtakes foundation-model revenue at single AI lab pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Frontier-model gross margin compresses below 50% pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Public market valuation gap widens — app companies / API companies pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First gigawatt-scale AI-purpose-built datacenter campus operational pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First nuclear reactor restart explicitly contracted for AI datacenter (Three Mile Island/Microsoft style) pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — AI-recommended industrial process redesign deployed at Fortune 500 plant scale pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — US electricity production grows >10% YoY explicitly tied to AI demand pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Anthropic / OpenAI announce internal custom-silicon strategy pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AI ASIC market grows 44%+ in 2026 (Gartner/IDC validation) pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Per-watt inference efficiency gap vs general GPU exceeds 10x pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-29 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-14 — 600K vehicles lost in 2026 due to chip scarcity (UBS forecast) pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — TSMC Tainan + Arizona fabs reach volume production pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Robotaxi fleet expansion explicitly chip-constrained in public disclosures pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Tesla 2026 capex officially raised to $25B+ (board / earnings disclosure aligning with Terafab funding) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Terafab pilot facility produces first AI5 chips (small-batch production) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cumulative Terafab project commitments cross $150B (matching prediction's lower-bound total buildout) pre #6 · hit · 2025-09-15 — Uber launches data-labeling earning option for US drivers pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-31 — uLabel/uTask platform deployed and operational pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — 100K+ Uber drivers participate in AI labeling tasks cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — New non-driver workers onboard through Uber AI platform cascade #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Uber AI Solutions becomes top-3 global data labeling vendor cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Enterprise AI 'reimagine' threshold: >=50% of Fortune 500 publish AI-first strategy pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-31 — S&P 500 IT spend on AI tooling exceeds 25% of total IT budget pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: AI-native startups capture >=20% of new B2B SaaS market share cascade #1 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Cascade: BLS labor data shows >=10% headcount reduction in 'traditional knowledge work' categories pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Grok 5 public launch with AGI claim pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Tesla board adopts AI-augmented decision tooling publicly pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Musk publicly acknowledges plan to delegate CEO functions to AI pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — First Fortune 500 company appoints AI agent to executive role pre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Grok 6 or successor demonstrates sustained agentic autonomy on operational tasks cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — GPT-5.5 system card + Deployment Safety Hub published pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — GPT-5.5 Pro available in API (April 24, 2026) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — GPT-5.5 DAU/cost ratio enables broad adoption (>=10x developer activity vs 5.4) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Polymarket Mythos release-by-June-30 odds drop below 30% pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic discloses Pentagon/USG Mythos contract value cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Polymarket Mythos public release odds remain below 20% by Q3 2026 cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Mythos remains gated through end of 2026 cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Polymarket 'Grok 5 by Q2 2026' market resolves cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Grok 5 model card, weights, or API access publicly available cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-16 — xAI provides updated guidance on Grok 5 launch window cascade #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Grok 5 benchmark performance disclosed (HLE, MMLU-Pro, GPQA, ARC-AGI) cascade #5 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Cascade: Grok 5 launch triggers >5% intraday spike in NVDA / xAI competitor stocks cascade #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: xAI valuation re-marks above $300B post Grok 5 launch pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-23 — Grok 5 publicly launches cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic accelerates next-gen model release calendar (Claude 5 / Opus 5) cascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-29 — OpenAI catches up to Anthropic in benchmark performance on >=2 of {SWE-bench Verified, ARC-AGI, GPQA-Diamond} cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Anthropic safety / alignment incident reported during accelerated release pressure cascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: Anthropic loses pricing power; commercial deals re-priced down >10% cascade #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: Dario Amodei or Anthropic exec publicly addresses competitive-pressure release tradeoffs pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Sam Altman publishes follow-up cyberattack warning at congressional hearing or major venue cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — OpenAI / Anthropic publish public model misuse data showing AI-aided cyber campaigns cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Major nation-state-attributed AI-augmented cyberattack on critical infrastructure cascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — White House announces National AI Cybersecurity Initiative with frontier-lab partnership cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cybersecurity insurance pricing for AI-related risks rises >50% YoY cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI ships GPT-5.5-Cyber to critical cyber defenders pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-15 — First publicly attributed AI-agent-led major cyber incident pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — OpenAI / Anthropic threat-disruption reports document scaled AI-agent cyber abuse cascade #1 · pending · 2027-04-16 — Critical-infrastructure-grade cyber incident attributed to open-weights frontier model cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Federal/international biosecurity AI policy proposal cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-16 — First documented attempted misuse of AI for bio R&D cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-08 — WWDC 2026 keynote announces Gemini-derived Apple Intelligence / Foundation Model pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-08 — Smaller-than-public framing: Apple may NOT credit Gemini lineage publicly cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-01 — iOS 27 / iPhone 18 ships with Gemini-derived on-device model cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Independent benchmarking confirms Gemini lineage in Apple Foundation Model cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Amazon launches OpenClaw-style enterprise agent — major incumbent enters category pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Agentic AI ARR milestone — combined ecosystem (frontier labs + cloud agents + OpenClaw deployments) crosses $200B ARR pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Gartner / IDC / Bain reach $1T agentic-AI market consensus year-end 2027 pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major jurisdiction introduces draft AI personhood legislation pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Major court issues binding ruling that explicitly addresses AI legal status (positive or negative) pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-16 — First narrow contracting/agency right granted to AI system in any jurisdiction pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If no jurisdiction has even drafted limited AI personhood by end-2027, claim probability decays pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First major liability case / regulatory action explicitly faulting human-authored code over AI alternative pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Code-vs-driver legal recognition timing test — code recognition arrives first pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — AV legal landmark — first jurisdiction making human driving a presumptive negligence baseline vs autonomy on equipped ro pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Medvi proves micro-team unicorn template ($401M Y1 revenue, $1.8B run-rate, ~2 FTE) pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cohort accumulation — at least 10 named micro-team (<=5 FTE) companies cross $50M ARR pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cohort scaling — 100+ named micro-team companies cross $10M ARR (millions-of-small-businesses signal) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Power-law tail formalized — at least 1 micro-team company crosses $10B valuation, multiple at $1B pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-15 — Intel 18A yield disclosure at or above 65% commercial threshold pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — Terafab Phase 1 groundbreaking or site selection finalized in Austin TX pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Intel external foundry revenue run-rate visibility above $1B annualized cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Tesla AI6 chip first tape-out at Intel 18A cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #3 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Intel external foundry revenue exceeds $4B annualized (Diamandis target validated) cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-09 — Bernstein / external analysts publish capex feasibility critique (~$5T to hit 1 TW) pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-23 — Tesla picks Intel 14A process for Austin Terafab pilot AI5 chip pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Austin Terafab pilot fab achieves first wafer-out (small-batch AI5 production) pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Terafab reaches initial 100K wafer-starts/month capacity milestone pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-19 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier-lab evaluation milestone — labs publicly report unsafe-eval-bypass incidents of pre-deployment models pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First credibly attributed AI-uplifted bio/cyber catastrophic-threshold incident (or absence thereof) pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — International binding-treaty-level AI safety mechanism (Politburo / G7 / UN level) ratified or near-ratified pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic publishes Mythos pricing per million tokens that is 4-6x Opus 4.7 ($5/$25) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Mythos availability gated to paid Anthropic Max/Enterprise tiers only cascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — At least 1 published benchmark shows Mythos >=10% above Opus 4.7 on agentic eval cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mythos token volume across Anthropic API stays below 10% of total Opus token spend cascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Anthropic launches a 'Mythos-distilled' Sonnet variant at lower cost cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Recursive self-improving AI demonstrated in production at frontier lab pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-22 — Global AI agent population (deployed instances) exceeds 100B agent-hours/year pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First megawatt-class space-based compute platform reaches LEO pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: First commercial Dyson swarm prototype contract signed (>=10 satellites) cascade #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: Trillion-agent AI workload measured on a single platform pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Anthropic releases Claude Mythos Preview (anchor model) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Anthropic ships smaller / faster Mythos-class variant (Sonnet/Haiku tier) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — General availability of Mythos beyond Project Glasswing partners cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Mythos pricing per token at or below current Opus 4.7 levels cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Open-source community reverse-engineers / replicates Mythos efficiency cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · partial · 2026-04-25 — Mixed evaluation: Tom's Guide / blind testing shows Claude Opus 4.7 still wins broader categories pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic ships Claude Opus 4.8 / 5.0 reclaiming benchmark lead cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Anthropic confirms Mythos withheld for internal/government use pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic, OpenAI, or Google DeepMind disclose internal compute share for self-improvement cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier model release lags published capability by >=3 months cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Compute moat acknowledged by US/EU regulator cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-30 — International AI Safety Report 2026 documents catastrophic risk pathways pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Federal AI safety bill passes Congress post-major incident pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Scenario fires: AI pause beginning 2028 pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX confidentially files S-1 for IPO including xAI pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-05-16 — Combined entity loss of $5B reported, raising IPO execution risk pre #2 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — SpaceX-xAI combined IPO targets $1.75T-$2T valuation in summer 2026 listing pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-30 — Liability phase verdict (advisory jury) returned pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Settlement announcement OR Judge Rogers final ruling on liability phase cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Sam Altman departs as OpenAI CEO (resignation, removal, or transition) cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI confirmed to remain for-profit (post-litigation structure) cascade #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Cascade: OpenAI files S-1 for IPO post-litigation resolution cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-27 — Musk v. Altman / OpenAI trial begins in federal court pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Trial verdict, settlement, or dismissal announced cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Settlement terms or judgment include Musk-related equity provision in OpenAI Group PBC cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — OpenAI files S-1 with SEC for trillion-dollar IPO cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Cascade: OpenAI completes IPO with Musk listed as cap-table party cascade #5 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Cascade: AI sector M&A or governance precedent established re: nonprofit-to-PBC conversions cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issues ruling in Musk v OpenAI cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Court ruling explicitly addresses whether nonprofit donors retain enforceable rights after for-profit conversion cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Appeal filed to Ninth Circuit by losing party cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — First independent legal article or law review note cites the ruling as precedent cascade #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Cascade: State AGs (Delaware, California) update guidance on nonprofit-to-PBC conversions citing case cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Cascade: Another large AI nonprofit-to-for-profit conversion proceeds (or is blocked) citing case pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Anthropic ARR reaches $30B (already passed by April 2026) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-07 — Anthropic ARR reaches $50B run-rate by end of Q3 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Claude API/enterprise pricing or usage volume holds growth slope through H2 2026 cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-01 — Anthropic discloses $100B ARR by end of December 2026 cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Cascade: Anthropic IPO files S-1 or completes listing in Q4 2026 / Q1 2027 cascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Cascade: Anthropic 2027 revenue forecast revised upward toward $200B+ cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Claude Code annualized revenue exceeds $2.5B pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Anthropic ARR crosses $30B and surpasses OpenAI pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic ARR reaches $100B (interim milestone toward $1T) pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Anthropic ARR reaches $1T by EOY 2027 (target) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: Anthropic IPO or tender offer at $1T+ valuation pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Anthropic crosses $30B ARR by April 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Analyst end-of-2026 ARR projections converge to $80-100B range cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — $200B ARR target — explicit verification or repudiation cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Anthropic stretch target: cross $100B ARR by year-end 2026 cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · partial · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic preemptive offers at $850-900B valuation reported (April 2026 — partial of $2T thesis) pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Anthropic Series H or follow-on round closes at ≥ $900B post-money pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic implied valuation reaches ≥ $1.5T (within striking distance of $2T thesis) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-04-16 — Anthropic implied valuation reaches ≥ $2T (thesis hit) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic weighs $50B round at >=$900B valuation pre #1 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Anthropic board approves the >=$900B round cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Anthropic revenue crosses OpenAI revenue (annualized run-rate) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic IPO filing or S-1 disclosed cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — OpenAI raises $122B funding round to scale capacity pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — OpenAI launches $8/month entry plan to expand subscriber base cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — ChatGPT WAU breaches 1B threshold cascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: OpenAI announces 2B+ users across ChatGPT family cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — AI startup pitch decks publicly require recursive self-improvement narrative pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — Frontier lab discloses live recursive self-improvement loop in production training cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Funding round for AI startup explicitly cites RSI architecture in announcement cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Down-round or shutdown of non-RSI AI startup signals bar-raise cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI capex shifts towards training-time-compute over inference cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Frontier lab claims 'general knowledge worker' capability cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cross-function enterprise benchmark suite shows AI ≥80% on 5+ categories cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major consultancy quantifies '50%+ knowledge worker tasks automatable' cascade #4 · pending · 2027-10-01 — BLS labor productivity statistics show AI-attributable inflection cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Anthropic surpasses OpenAI on annualized revenue (continued lead) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic ARR crosses $50B pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Enterprise agents revenue mix >50% of Anthropic revenue pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Revenue trajectory implies $1T within 5 years (analyst extrapolation) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-22 — First frontier lab to publicly project $1T revenue path cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Single hyperscaler discloses >$200B annual AI capex pre #2 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Single AI-customer commitment to one vendor exceeds $300B pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Annualized run-rate spend by one buyer to one vendor crosses $500B cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-19 — First public $1T-class AI vendor spend headline pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — GPT-6 (or successor) public availability or research preview pre #2 · pending · 2027-04-01 — First peer-reviewed scientific discovery primarily authored or driven by GPT-6-class model pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Pharma or materials company attributes >$1B value to AI-discovered candidate cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Public valuation marker for AI-science breakthrough cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Android 17 ships post-quantum cryptography by default pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cloudflare reaches full post-quantum security across edge by 2029 pre #4 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Google announces logical-qubit milestone capable of factoring small RSA pre #3 · pending · 2029-02-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2029-04-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — First reported real-world post-quantum cryptographic compromise (harvest-now-decrypt-later) cascade #2 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Hyperscaler 2026 capex aggregates exceed $700B annualized pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Microsoft single-quarter capex breaks $30B with AI revenue past $37B run-rate pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Meta raises full-year 2026 capex guidance to $125B+ cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Aggregate global AI investment crosses $1.1T annualized run-rate (~$3B/day) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Capex acceleration triggers credit-market stress event in IG-rated tech issuance cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-10 — Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chai pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — At least 3 new AI-team acqui-hires above $500M total deal value pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — FTC or DOJ closes acqui-hire merger-review loophole pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Specialized small-team AI acqui-hire crosses $5B+ headline value pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Top-50 AI researchers individually compensated >$100M/year market rate cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Frontier-model parameter count remains in 1T-10T band (no 100T model released) pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Industry shift to MoE / smaller dense models confirmed pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — 100T+ parameter dense frontier model released (would falsify) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic Q2/Q3 2026 ARR run-rate update — sustains 10x YoY trajectory pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Anthropic IPO or $850-900B valuation round closes pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Frontier benchmark crossover — Claude tops or matches OpenAI flagship on majority of capability/coding/reasoning evals f pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Enterprise share-of-wallet reversal — Anthropic enterprise spend exceeds OpenAI enterprise spend in independent CIO surv cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-07 — First quarterly P&L disclosure for Andon Market pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Independent retail-industry ranking / press validation of Andon Market pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-23 — Andon Market still operating at 1-year anniversary cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Cascade: AI-managed retail concept replicated by other founders / chains cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Retail-AI venture funding round >$50M pre #2 · pending · 2026-10-30 — AI-orchestrated mall or multi-tenant venue announced pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Coverage cluster: 5+ articles on AI pop-up retail explosion cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Category data validates explosion (active venues count) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Summer 2026 benchmark composite shows >=10x advance over Jan 2026 baseline pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Falsification: Summer 2026 benchmarks show <3x improvement (would be NEAR-MISS) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — 100x year claim publicly validated by >=1 independent analyst cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Independent journalism documents AI chatbot bioweapon synthesis instructions pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First documented real-world incident of AI-assisted CBRN attempt (attempted, not necessarily successful) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Regulatory response: at least one government imposes mandatory CBRN red-teaming for frontier models cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-31 — AI Incident Database adds ≥100 new incidents in three-month window pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Stanford AI Index 2026 documents 8x growth in malicious-actor AI use vs 2022 cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Deepfake-driven incidents continue to outnumber autonomous vehicle / facial recognition incidents cascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Major regulatory reporting requirement (EU AI Act incident reporting / US executive order) goes live cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Six major AI companies decline to submit voluntary transparency reports pre #5 · hit · 2025-12-31 — OpenAI / Anthropic / Google publish zero environmental-impact data pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — FMTI 2026 transparency average remains <=45/100 (no reversal) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Chinese frontier lab open-weights release at top-3 LMArena Elo pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Chinese model wins or ties on novel benchmark vs US/UK frontier cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenAI or Anthropic releases meaningful open-weight model (>30B) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-30 — BIS / US export-control update tightens China AI model export cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major US frontier lab publishes architecture / training-recipe transparency report cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-05-01 — OpenAI restricts GPT-5.5-Cyber to vetted critical-defender partners only pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Anthropic gates Claude Mythos behind security-vetted access tier pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — 3 or more frontier labs gate top-tier models behind enterprise / vetted-only access pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Public benchmark / paper claims ASI-equivalent capability on a defined task suite cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2025-04-15 — Microsoft releases bitnet-b1.58-2B-4T on Hugging Face pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — First commercial LLM API deploys ternary weights at scale cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-16 — Frontier model trained natively in ternary precision (>50B params) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Frontier AI capability index doubles vs Q1 2026 pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-15 — Multi-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier models. pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-24 — AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-19 — Uncertain whether people will have any purpose at all a year from today. pre #1 · pending · 2028-06-16 — BCI throughput remains <1% of frontier-AI inference rate by 2028 cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-15 — First documented AI-enabled solo-founder $1B+ revenue trajectory company pre #1 · hit · 2026-03-01 — Solo-founded startups exceed 35% of new ventures in 2026 cohort cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First solo-founder unicorn ($1B post-money valuation, single-founder, ≤5 employees) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First documented AI-enabled 'one-person religion' or solo-founded religious movement at scale cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI-mediated community / DAO-style spiritual or ideological group exceeds 100K members cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Sub-1-bit (post-binary) LLM quantization achieves >70% accuracy parity vs FP16 on >=7B model cascade #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Major lab (Microsoft, Meta, Google, NVIDIA) ships post-binary precision in production model cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Hardware accelerator with native sub-binary support announced cascade #5 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: 'Information per parameter' theoretical paper redefines compute-optimal scaling laws cascade #6 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Sub-binary quantized model deployed at >1B-user scale pre #6 · hit · 2024-12-14 — OpenAI Superalignment 'weak-to-strong generalization' research paper baseline pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Anthropic / DeepMind / OpenAI publish post-2025 results on weak-to-strong supervising frontier models cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Adversarial demonstration: weak-to-strong fails when the strong model is intentionally deceptive cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First superintelligence-class system contained / aligned by weaker supervisor in deployment cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-16 — Anthropic guidance: 'use prompts for everything' published in migration doc pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-16 — Opus 4.7 replaces fixed thinking budget with adaptive thinking pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI / Google follow with reduced sampling-parameter surface cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cascade: prompt-engineering market doubles ($) in 12 months post-4.7 cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-05 — Major model release exceeds human OSWorld baseline by clear margin pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Holo3-35B-A3B leads OSWorld with 82.6% pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Anthropic CEO publicly maintains 2026 AI > most humans timeline pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — OpenAI articulates 'hundreds of thousands of automated research interns' plan cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Frontier benchmark composite (MMLU/SWE/MATH/OSWorld) exceeds expert humans on 4 of 4 cascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Cascade: AGI-popular-narrative drives capex acceleration past $700B/yr pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Frontier lab publicly deprecates pure RLHF as superalignment primary technique in favor of scalable-oversight architectu pre #4 · pending · 2028-05-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Government or international body cites RLHF inadequacy in formal AI-safety policy pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-14 — First public incident report of RLHF-supervised superhuman model causing measurable real-world harm via reward-hacking pre #1 · pending · 2029-01-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Alex Finn / IT Lounge HIM platform demonstrates 5-agent autonomous corp pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Cumulative HIM-generated revenue surpasses $1M cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Second autonomous-corp framework launches (beyond HIM) cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major incumbent (Salesforce, Microsoft, ServiceNow) launches autonomous-corp suite pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI model produces peer-reviewed scientific discovery in non-CS field pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #3 · pending · 2028-02-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-01 — AI agent integrates with biological/environmental sensor stack in published study pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-30 — Composite cross-domain leaderboard launched (math+code+science+reasoning) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — First gigawatt-scale AI datacenter operational (xAI Colossus 2) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Single-cluster commitment crosses $200B threshold pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — FERC or RTO publicly identifies AI compute as macro-grid stress source pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — First U.S. nuclear PPA dedicated to single AI cluster ≥1 GW pre #1 · pending · 2028-05-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-18 — Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection and cybersecurity threats in real time. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-22 — AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. cascade #3 · pending · 2029-12-10 — Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-15 — $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-18 — By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — OpenAI delivers intern-level research assistant by Sept 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-13 — Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months. pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI system co-authors a peer-reviewed paper as primary author pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — AI system independently produces novel scientific finding without human guidance cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Public model produces independent novel research result accepted at top-tier venue pre #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Major AI lab announces internal recursive self-improvement loop in production pre #4 · pending · 2028-06-22 — AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence. pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Scenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — GDPval-equivalent saturation: leading model >=95% expert-tie-or-win across full benchmark cascade #1 · pending · 2031-11-01 — If superintelligence emerges: international AI compute monitoring treaty signed pre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Anthropic ARR exceeds $30B annualized run-rate pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier model achieves expert-level performance on broad professional certification benchmark pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI fully automates >=80% of typical software-engineering tasks at Fortune 500 cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #2 · pending · 2030-11-04 — Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global production cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Amodei walks back trillion claim citing capital constraints pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Free cash flow positive by 2027 pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Anthropic ARR reaches $1T+ run-rate (resolution) pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · overdue · 2024-09-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · overdue · 2025-05-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · hit · 2026-01-31 — Test-time compute / reasoning OOM unlocked via o1, o3, R1 pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Aschenbrenner 1GW per cluster prediction validated by 2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier model demonstrates 1 full OOM effective compute over GPT-4 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Algorithmic efficiency gains tracked at 0.5+ OOM/year through 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Full automated AI researcher milestone — autonomous research agent pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — xAI Colossus phase-2 expansion confirmed for Grok 5+ training pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Frontier model crosses 10T parameters pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Leading AI lab publicly forecasts AGI within 24 months pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-12-01 — Independent body (METR/Apollo/MIRI) confirms AGI achieved by 2030 pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-16 — GPT-5.2 or successor leads METR Time Horizon test pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Frontier model achieves ≥4-hour 50% time horizon pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — METR researchers simulate 200-hour time horizon AIs pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-26 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Frontier agent demonstrates ≥8h task with ≥50% reliability (resolution) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Real-world agent deployment (one-workday autonomous loops) pre #5 · hit · 2026-01-28 — Moltbook launches with 150K+ AI agents pre #4 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · hit · 2026-03-10 — Meta acquires Moltbook pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Moltbook crosses 1M total registered AI agents cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Second autonomous agent platform launches with >100K agents cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Closed-loop digital economy emerges (agents transact autonomously) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — AAIF reaches 170 or more member organizations pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AAIF v1.0 vendor-neutral protocol standard published pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-07-31 — 3 or more hyperscalers ship native AAIF protocol support in production agent platforms pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Three-stage payload hits credential / Kubernetes / backdoor at scale pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Second wave of AI-package supply-chain CVE during 2026 pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Enterprise breach attributable to AI-package compromise reported in SEC 8-K pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major physical-supply-chain disruption removes >10% of global advanced-node fab inputs pre #5 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Hyperscaler capex announcements explicitly cite power-grid constraints as binding pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — US strategic stockpile or DPA action on chip-grade gases / rare earths pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — AGI-claiming lab announces deployment delay tied to compute or power pre #1 · pending · 2029-01-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — xAI Colossus crosses 555K GPUs pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-08 — Microsoft contracts 30K Rubin GPUs at Norway data center pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US government action: data-center grid build-out Defense Production Act invocation pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Hundreds-of-millions GPUs deployed across leading clusters by end-2027 cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — TSMC Arizona phase 2 begins 3nm mass production pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — First Vera Rubin systems deployed at Stargate sites pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — OpenAI Stargate international expansion (Argentina 100 MW phase) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — OpenAI share of global AI training compute exceeds 25% pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AMD MI400 series (CDNA Next) ships at 40 PFLOPS FP4 / 432 GB HBM4 / 19.6 TB/s pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — FullFlat optical NVLink network topology demonstrated for inter-node uniform bandwidth pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Hardware-software co-design tooling (Nemotron-Flash / Liquid AI) hits production for inference pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Hyperscaler announces dedicated 'AI utility' offering with SLA-backed inference uptime ≥99.99% pre #6 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Single frontier lab deploys >100M AI-instance compute pool dedicated to research-automation pre #5 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Frontier ML benchmark improvement rate accelerates >2x trailing 5-yr trendline pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — First frontier lab declares 'recursive self-improvement loop active' or equivalent pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI co-authored physics paper published in top peer-reviewed journal pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-01 — DeepMind publishes AI-driven novel theoretical-physics result with experimental prediction pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-15 — AI system unifies GR and QM into validated mathematical framework pre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-05-17 — GPT-5 / Claude Opus 5 release with claimed PhD-level reasoning cascade #2 · pending · 2026-05-17 — MMLU saturated (≥95%) by all frontier models cascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — GPQA-Diamond benchmark crosses 90% by frontier model cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Aschenbrenner (or peer) publishes 'Situational Awareness II' or similar treatise marking AGI threshold cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-26 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI agent hallucination rate from multimodal inputs benchmarked and improving pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Earth-observation/space-data multimodal startup gets enterprise contract >=$50M pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Major hyperscaler (AWS, GCP, Azure) acquires multimodal-data-pipeline startup >=$2B pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Reka AI, Twelve Labs, or comparable multimodal incumbent crosses $5B threshold first cascade #1 · pending · 2028-08-15 — First multimodal-data-pipeline startup achieves $5B+ valuation pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First $1B+ valuation for autonomous-agent-only aerospace company pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Scenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-01 — Trillion-dollar AI agent economy reaches measurable threshold target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift 286 plotted · 16 outside x-range · click any dot for detail
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.