Timeline Fan

131 of 131 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Forked into 4 mutually-exclusive AGI branches — each lane shows the claims that hinge on that scenario.

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Top predictors
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)
050100S_AGI_FAST_2027 · prior 30% · avg shift ±4.1pp · AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09050100S_AGI_MID_2029 · prior 35% · avg shift ±2.1pp · AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path050100S_AGI_SLOW_2031 · prior 25% · avg shift ±4.2pp · AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path050100S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS · prior 10% · avg shift ±4.9pp · AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winterhistory230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis✓238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now✓240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months✓AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake✓238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)✓CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20✓AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o✓240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027✓FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna✓AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en✓242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission✓244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years✓241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation✓229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne✓IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct✓SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S✓SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil✓SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on✓232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti✓241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom✓AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026✓242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license✓233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra✓CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val✓246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers).✓238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if)✓247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston✓AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using✓IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do✓AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la✓AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c✓CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba✓247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial✓235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).✓245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE✓CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o✓246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.✓FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-✓ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin✓ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU✓INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva✓INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula✓SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f✓SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.✓INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n✓229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.✓248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.✓248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.✓ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence-✓CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to✓235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.✓SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc✓SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f✓237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca✓238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days✓232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.✓241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long✓245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed✓SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme✓248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.✓SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200✓229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.✓CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re✓CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi✓CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr✓SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate✓INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup✓INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor✓SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.✓SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying✓SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu✓SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual✓231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.✗231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.✗235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.✗244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years◐239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world◐INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol◐232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani◐236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours◐SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad◐AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey◐238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi◐231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.◐CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.◐AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree◐246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).◐247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently◐245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus◐INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn◐INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat◐246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.◐INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob◐SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se◐ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar◐INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await◐SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr◐INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive◐SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na◐SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u◐SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast◐SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10◐SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci◐CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go◐INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 —◐INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight◐INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive◐SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a◐Jan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2027FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2028FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2029FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2030FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2031FebMarAprMayJuntodaypre #6 · pending · 2026-10-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Mistral ARR crosses $1B annual run-ratepre #4 · pending · 2027-04-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-11 — Mistral launches consumer/enterprise vertically-integrated stack (model + cloud + apps)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: Mistral valued >=€30B in next funding round, Europe's first AI decacorn at OpenAI scalepre #6 · pending · 2026-11-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Crosby and ≥3 'agentic AI law firms' in Lupl 'AI Law Firms to Watch' establish recurring contract-review revenuepre #4 · pending · 2027-05-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Major newsroom or wire service deploys autonomous AI agents producing >25% of published bylinespre #2 · pending · 2027-12-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Major bank or asset manager deploys autonomous AI agents executing trades >$100M/daypre #6 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Compute supply (Broadcom TPUs + AWS Trainium + Nvidia GPUs) for Anthropic exceeds 5GW dedicatedpre #5 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2027pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09pre #3 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Anthropic crosses $500B annualized revenue run ratepre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Anthropic IPO or pre-IPO disclosure of audited annual revenue >=$200Bpre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Anthropic surpasses $1T annual revenue (definitive event)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Compute supply (Broadcom TPUs + AWS Trainium + Nvidia GPUs) for Anthropic exceeds 5GW dedicatedpre #5 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2027pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09pre #3 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Anthropic crosses $500B annualized revenue run ratepre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Anthropic IPO or pre-IPO disclosure of audited annual revenue >=$200Bpre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Anthropic surpasses $1T annual revenue (definitive event)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Compute supply (Broadcom TPUs + AWS Trainium + Nvidia GPUs) for Anthropic exceeds 5GW dedicatedpre #5 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2027pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09pre #3 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Anthropic crosses $500B annualized revenue run ratepre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Anthropic IPO or pre-IPO disclosure of audited annual revenue >=$200Bpre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Anthropic surpasses $1T annual revenue (definitive event)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Compute supply (Broadcom TPUs + AWS Trainium + Nvidia GPUs) for Anthropic exceeds 5GW dedicatedpre #5 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2027pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09pre #3 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Anthropic crosses $500B annualized revenue run ratepre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Anthropic IPO or pre-IPO disclosure of audited annual revenue >=$200Bpre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Anthropic surpasses $1T annual revenue (definitive event)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — GPT-5.5 ships as new leading AI modelpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 ships at 1 trillion parameterspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier labs shift narrative away from raw parameters toward reasoning computecascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — 100x raw parameter growth claim verified or refuted via 2026 disclosurescascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — GPT-5.5 ships as new leading AI modelpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 ships at 1 trillion parameterspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier labs shift narrative away from raw parameters toward reasoning computecascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — 100x raw parameter growth claim verified or refuted via 2026 disclosurescascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Major code-gen model benchmark publishes TS-vs-Rust generation pass-ratespre #3 · pending · 2026-09-14 — Major framework or runtime announces TS-first agent SDKpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Public commentary thread (Karpathy/Sutskever/etc.) endorses TS directionpre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Stack Overflow / GitHub language usage shifts toward TS in AI projectscascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Major code-gen model benchmark publishes TS-vs-Rust generation pass-ratespre #3 · pending · 2026-09-14 — Major framework or runtime announces TS-first agent SDKpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Public commentary thread (Karpathy/Sutskever/etc.) endorses TS directionpre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Stack Overflow / GitHub language usage shifts toward TS in AI projectscascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Major code-gen model benchmark publishes TS-vs-Rust generation pass-ratespre #3 · pending · 2026-09-14 — Major framework or runtime announces TS-first agent SDKpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Public commentary thread (Karpathy/Sutskever/etc.) endorses TS directionpre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Stack Overflow / GitHub language usage shifts toward TS in AI projectscascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Major code-gen model benchmark publishes TS-vs-Rust generation pass-ratespre #3 · pending · 2026-09-14 — Major framework or runtime announces TS-first agent SDKpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Public commentary thread (Karpathy/Sutskever/etc.) endorses TS directionpre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Stack Overflow / GitHub language usage shifts toward TS in AI projectscascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic / Google match OpenAI's nano-tier pricingpre #5 · pending · 2027-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Sub-$0.10/M-token frontier-class model availablepre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Open-source model matching GPT-5 quality released free-to-usepre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI consumer app surpasses 1B MAUspre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — AI accessible to >=2B people via free apps by end of horizonpre #6 · pending · 2027-11-01 — First major frontier lab acquired or shuttered citing scaling-cost economicspre #5 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Funded foundation-model labs (>=$100M raised) plateaus at <=10 globallypre #4 · pending · 2028-04-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Number of profitable AI-application startups (>$10M ARR) exceeds 1,000pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Public 10-K/earnings disclosure: legacy SaaS incumbent revenue down >15% citing AI displacementpre #1 · pending · 2029-04-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-17 — Kevin Weil departs OpenAI; OpenAI for Science decentralized into other research teamspre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI for Science 'Prism' (LaTeX/Cursor-for-scientists) tool ships to broader research communitypre #3 · pending · 2026-10-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-04-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-16 — First Nobel Prize awarded to laureate who publicly credits AI as a major collaboratorcascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-16 — Cumulative Nobel-credited AI partnerships reach 5+ within four annual cyclespre #6 · pending · 2026-11-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First in vivo CRISPR therapy approved (LNP/AAV delivery)pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI/ML guide-RNA design tools become standard in CRISPR submissionspre #2 · pending · 2027-12-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Coding-model-driven autonomous robotics protocol executes wet-lab gene-editing experiment end-to-endpre #6 · pending · 2026-10-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI, xAI, Google ship production-scale agentic-research products comparable to Claude Codepre #3 · pending · 2027-03-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Frontier-model market-share converges: no single lab >40% of enterprise AI spendcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: Lab leadership rotates again — Anthropic regains undisputed lead, or fourth lab emergespre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Sequoia / a16z announces formal AI-augmented investment committee processpre #5 · pending · 2027-04-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Rowspace (AI for VC) reaches Series B / $1B+ valuationpre #3 · pending · 2027-10-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First AI-led VC fund publicly reports portfolio outperforming peer medianpre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — AI auto-sourced deal leads to top-decile exit / unicornpre #6 · pending · 2026-07-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Gartner: 40% of enterprise apps embed AI agents by end of 2026pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: Major SaaS vendor publishes 'agent-first' API spec / agent.md standardpre #2 · pending · 2027-01-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Agent-driven traffic exceeds 10% of API volume on a major dev platformpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-19 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Gartner: 40% of enterprise apps include task-specific AI agents by end-2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Worldwide AI spending crosses $2.5T in 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Cumulative deployed AI agent count crosses 10 billion (active provisioned)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Active deployed AI agents exceed human population (8B agents)cascade #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — 1 trillion AI agents threshold — Diamandis specific targetpre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First commercial 'AI agent attention auction' or paid-priority API tier launchespre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — HBM3/HBM4 memory remains the binding constraint per analyst commentarypre #4 · pending · 2027-03-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Data-center electrical capacity additions remain below demand forecast (lead-time gap >24 months)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If GPU rental prices fall >50% from April 2026 levels by end-2027, scarcity thesis weakenspre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major academic paper demonstrates state-of-the-art LLM at <1B parameters on a benchmark within 5 points of frontierpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mainstream non-transformer architecture (Mamba, RWKV, Hyena, RetNet) wins on ChatBot Arena top 20pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Frontier lab announces 'next-generation architecture' departure from transformer scalingpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Kolmogorov-complexity / compression-prize benchmark shows AI compressing knowledge below transformer-floorpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First production LLM ships at <100MB total size with utility comparable to GPT-3cascade #2 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: On-device AGI-class models ship with major OSpre #6 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier model trained on architecture that does NOT efficiently map to NVIDIA tensor corespre #4 · pending · 2027-05-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-19 — New AI lab founded specifically around post-transformer architecture (Anthropic-class)pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Cascade: NVIDIA gross margin compression >=500 bps as customers shift to alternative-arch chipscascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-14 — Cascade: Post-transformer-native lab valued >=$50B (next Anthropic/OpenAI scale)pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI ChatGPT Pro / Plus / Team / Enterprise ARR exceeds $20Bpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI consumer subscriber count exceeds 50M paid userspre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI launches new flagship 'everything app' or super-app subscription tierpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — OpenAI surpasses Anthropic on subscription-revenue (vs API revenue) rankingpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — OpenAI IPO or formal SPAC/direct-listing announcementpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: ChatGPT-style subscription mainstream adoption parity with Netflix (250M+ paid)pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Sub-1B-parameter model achieves GPT-3.5-class performance on standard benchmarkspre #4 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-23 — Sub-100M-parameter model achieves competent task-specific performancepre #2 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Sub-10M-parameter task-specific model demonstrates near-frontier on bounded domaincascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: 'Few million parameters' end-state model class deployed on consumer edge devicespre #6 · pending · 2026-10-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — App-layer revenue overtakes foundation-model revenue at single AI labpre #3 · pending · 2027-10-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Frontier-model gross margin compresses below 50%pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Public market valuation gap widens — app companies / API companiespre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Anthropic / OpenAI announce internal custom-silicon strategypre #5 · pending · 2026-10-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AI ASIC market grows 44%+ in 2026 (Gartner/IDC validation)pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Per-watt inference efficiency gap vs general GPU exceeds 10xpre #6 · pending · 2026-10-29 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-14 — 600K vehicles lost in 2026 due to chip scarcity (UBS forecast)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — TSMC Tainan + Arizona fabs reach volume productionpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Robotaxi fleet expansion explicitly chip-constrained in public disclosurespre #1 · pending · 2027-10-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Amazon launches OpenClaw-style enterprise agent — major incumbent enters categorypre #5 · pending · 2026-10-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Agentic AI ARR milestone — combined ecosystem (frontier labs + cloud agents + OpenClaw deployments) crosses $200B ARRpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Gartner / IDC / Bain reach $1T agentic-AI market consensus year-end 2027pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major jurisdiction introduces draft AI personhood legislationpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Major court issues binding ruling that explicitly addresses AI legal status (positive or negative)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-16 — First narrow contracting/agency right granted to AI system in any jurisdictionpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If no jurisdiction has even drafted limited AI personhood by end-2027, claim probability decayspre #6 · pending · 2026-10-19 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier-lab evaluation milestone — labs publicly report unsafe-eval-bypass incidents of pre-deployment modelspre #4 · pending · 2027-04-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First credibly attributed AI-uplifted bio/cyber catastrophic-threshold incident (or absence thereof)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — International binding-treaty-level AI safety mechanism (Politburo / G7 / UN level) ratified or near-ratifiedpre #6 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Recursive self-improving AI demonstrated in production at frontier labpre #3 · pending · 2027-08-22 — Global AI agent population (deployed instances) exceeds 100B agent-hours/yearpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First megawatt-class space-based compute platform reaches LEOpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: First commercial Dyson swarm prototype contract signed (>=10 satellites)cascade #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: Trillion-agent AI workload measured on a single platformpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic weighs $50B round at >=$900B valuationpre #1 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Anthropic board approves the >=$900B roundcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Anthropic revenue crosses OpenAI revenue (annualized run-rate)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic IPO filing or S-1 disclosedcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic weighs $50B round at >=$900B valuationpre #1 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Anthropic board approves the >=$900B roundcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Anthropic revenue crosses OpenAI revenue (annualized run-rate)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic IPO filing or S-1 disclosedcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic weighs $50B round at >=$900B valuationpre #1 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Anthropic board approves the >=$900B roundcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Anthropic revenue crosses OpenAI revenue (annualized run-rate)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic IPO filing or S-1 disclosedcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic weighs $50B round at >=$900B valuationpre #1 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Anthropic board approves the >=$900B roundcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Anthropic revenue crosses OpenAI revenue (annualized run-rate)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic IPO filing or S-1 disclosedcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Frontier-model parameter count remains in 1T-10T band (no 100T model released)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Industry shift to MoE / smaller dense models confirmedpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — 100T+ parameter dense frontier model released (would falsify)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Summer 2026 benchmark composite shows >=10x advance over Jan 2026 baselinepre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Falsification: Summer 2026 benchmarks show <3x improvement (would be NEAR-MISS)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — 100x year claim publicly validated by >=1 independent analystcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Summer 2026 benchmark composite shows >=10x advance over Jan 2026 baselinepre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Falsification: Summer 2026 benchmarks show <3x improvement (would be NEAR-MISS)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — 100x year claim publicly validated by >=1 independent analystcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Six major AI companies decline to submit voluntary transparency reportspre #5 · hit · 2025-12-31 — OpenAI / Anthropic / Google publish zero environmental-impact datapre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — FMTI 2026 transparency average remains <=45/100 (no reversal)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Six major AI companies decline to submit voluntary transparency reportspre #5 · hit · 2025-12-31 — OpenAI / Anthropic / Google publish zero environmental-impact datapre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — FMTI 2026 transparency average remains <=45/100 (no reversal)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Six major AI companies decline to submit voluntary transparency reportspre #5 · hit · 2025-12-31 — OpenAI / Anthropic / Google publish zero environmental-impact datapre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — FMTI 2026 transparency average remains <=45/100 (no reversal)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Six major AI companies decline to submit voluntary transparency reportspre #5 · hit · 2025-12-31 — OpenAI / Anthropic / Google publish zero environmental-impact datapre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — FMTI 2026 transparency average remains <=45/100 (no reversal)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-05-01 — OpenAI restricts GPT-5.5-Cyber to vetted critical-defender partners onlypre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Anthropic gates Claude Mythos behind security-vetted access tierpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — 3 or more frontier labs gate top-tier models behind enterprise / vetted-only accesspre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Public benchmark / paper claims ASI-equivalent capability on a defined task suitecascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-05-01 — OpenAI restricts GPT-5.5-Cyber to vetted critical-defender partners onlypre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Anthropic gates Claude Mythos behind security-vetted access tierpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — 3 or more frontier labs gate top-tier models behind enterprise / vetted-only accesspre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Public benchmark / paper claims ASI-equivalent capability on a defined task suitecascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-05-01 — OpenAI restricts GPT-5.5-Cyber to vetted critical-defender partners onlypre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Anthropic gates Claude Mythos behind security-vetted access tierpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — 3 or more frontier labs gate top-tier models behind enterprise / vetted-only accesspre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Public benchmark / paper claims ASI-equivalent capability on a defined task suitecascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — xAI Colossus crosses 555K GPUspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-08 — Microsoft contracts 30K Rubin GPUs at Norway data centerpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US government action: data-center grid build-out Defense Production Act invocationpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Hundreds-of-millions GPUs deployed across leading clusters by end-2027cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — TSMC Arizona phase 2 begins 3nm mass productionpre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — First Vera Rubin systems deployed at Stargate sitespre #5 · pending · 2027-02-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — OpenAI Stargate international expansion (Argentina 100 MW phase)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — OpenAI share of global AI training compute exceeds 25%pre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-05-17 — GPT-5 / Claude Opus 5 release with claimed PhD-level reasoningcascade #2 · pending · 2026-05-17 — MMLU saturated (≥95%) by all frontier modelscascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — GPQA-Diamond benchmark crosses 90% by frontier modelcascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Aschenbrenner (or peer) publishes 'Situational Awareness II' or similar treatise marking AGI thresholdcascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-05-17 — GPT-5 / Claude Opus 5 release with claimed PhD-level reasoningcascade #2 · pending · 2026-05-17 — MMLU saturated (≥95%) by all frontier modelscascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — GPQA-Diamond benchmark crosses 90% by frontier modelcascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Aschenbrenner (or peer) publishes 'Situational Awareness II' or similar treatise marking AGI thresholdcascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearstarget window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift
50 plotted across 4 branches · 4 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to IREN.

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)
AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.