Cross-Branch Comparison

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For a single prediction, see its conditional probability across every scenario branch. Predictions whose probability varies widely are "scenario-sensitive" — the position is a leveraged bet on which future fires. Flat rows = robust to scenario uncertainty.

Pick a prediction

High-conviction (≥4) predictions with ≥2 ticker exposures

229_001 229_002 229_007 229_011 229_012 230_013 231_013 231_021 231_026 231_041 231_050 232_017 232_018 232_019 232_055 232_060 233_007 233_016 235_012 236_030 236_033 237_025 238_018 238_021 (selected)238_023 238_025 238_032 238_064 239_003 239_005

FamilyAll Compute scale Energy / grid Humanoid deployment Robotaxi AGI ASI $1T+ IPO Mars uncrewed AI pause Recession

238_021

Math, science, engineering, and medicine will all be solved by AI

AI · Alex Wissner-Gross · conv 5/5 · resolves 2029-03

live posterior: 42% (prior 55%)

Scenario range

13.4pp

29% to 42% across 37 scenarios

cache 37 rows · 2026-05-24 04:31 UTC

cf:e20a3cc6aed2

Overall range mixes mutually-exclusive and cumulative families; use family cards for scoped ranges.

Compute scale

cumulative — branches can co-occur · range 0.3pp

Scenario	Scenario prob	P(238_021 \| scenario)	Δ live
S_COMPUTE_1GW_2027 Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027	60%	38%	-4pp
S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028 Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028	40%	37%	-4pp
S_COMPUTE_100GW_2030 Compute: 100GW national-scale by Dec 2030	20%	37%	-4pp
S_COMPUTE_STARGATE_FAILURE Stargate failure: <500MW by 2029	15%	38%	-4pp

Energy / grid

cumulative — branches can co-occur · range 0.0pp

Scenario	Scenario prob	P(238_021 \| scenario)	Δ live
S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	40%	38%	-4pp
S_GRID_50GW_2029 50GW grid expansion by Dec 2029	50%	38%	-4pp
S_GRID_50GW_DELAYED 50GW grid expansion delayed past 2031	10%	38%	-4pp

Humanoid deployment

cumulative — branches can co-occur · range 0.0pp

Scenario	Scenario prob	P(238_021 \| scenario)	Δ live
S_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026 Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026	40%	38%	-4pp
S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028	50%	38%	-4pp
S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	20%	38%	-4pp
S_HUMANOID_MASS_2033 Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033	10%	38%	-4pp

Robotaxi

cumulative — branches can co-occur · range 0.0pp

Scenario	Scenario prob	P(238_021 \| scenario)	Δ live
S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026	40%	38%	-4pp
S_ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_2028 Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028	45%	38%	-4pp
S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	30%	38%	-4pp
S_ROBOTAXI_DELAYED Robotaxi mass deployment delayed past 2031	20%	38%	-4pp

AGI

mutually exclusive — exactly one branch fires · range 13.4pp

Scenario	Scenario prob	P(238_021 \| scenario)	Δ live
S_AGI_FAST_2027 AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09	30%	29%	-13pp
S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	35%	42%	+0pp
S_AGI_SLOW_2031 AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path	25%	29%	-13pp
S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	10%	29%	-13pp

ASI

mutually exclusive — exactly one branch fires · range 0.0pp

Scenario	Scenario prob	P(238_021 \| scenario)	Δ live
S_ASI_FAST_2031 ASI fast: RSI within 5y of AGI	10%	37%	-5pp
S_ASI_MID_2034 ASI mid: Schmidt 'ASI in 6 years'	30%	37%	-5pp
S_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS ASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoff	60%	37%	-5pp

$1T+ IPO

mutually exclusive — exactly one branch fires · range 0.0pp

Scenario	Scenario prob	P(238_021 \| scenario)	Δ live
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	25%	38%	-4pp
S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	40%	38%	-4pp
S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	25%	38%	-4pp
S_IPO_TRILLION_NONE_5Y No $1T+ IPO through 2031	10%	38%	-4pp

Mars uncrewed

mutually exclusive — exactly one branch fires · range 0.0pp

Scenario	Scenario prob	P(238_021 \| scenario)	Δ live
S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	25%	36%	-5pp
S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)	50%	36%	-5pp
S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	25%	36%	-5pp

AI pause

mutually exclusive — exactly one branch fires · range 4.8pp

Scenario	Scenario prob	P(238_021 \| scenario)	Δ live
S_AI_PAUSE_2026 Major-country AI pause beginning 2026	5%	33%	-8pp
S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	10%	33%	-8pp
S_AI_PAUSE_2028 AI pause beginning 2028	10%	33%	-8pp
S_NO_AI_PAUSE_5Y No major AI pause through 2031	75%	38%	-4pp

Recession

mutually exclusive — exactly one branch fires · range 0.0pp

Scenario	Scenario prob	P(238_021 \| scenario)	Δ live
S_RECESSION_2026 NBER recession declared 2026	20%	38%	-4pp
S_RECESSION_2027 NBER recession declared 2027	30%	38%	-4pp
S_RECESSION_2028 NBER recession declared 2028	30%	38%	-4pp
S_NO_RECESSION_5Y No NBER recession through 2031	20%	38%	-4pp

What this tells you

High sensitivity (≥30pp range): this claim's probability swings wildly depending on which future fires. Sizing should be smaller; pair with a hedge that has the opposite sensitivity profile.
Flat row (≤10pp range): the claim is robust — same probability in good and bad scenarios. A "no-regret" position; you don't need to time the underlying scenario.
Spike on one branch: a leveraged thesis on a specific scenario. If that scenario's prior shifts, this position re-rates massively.