S_IPO_TRILLION_NONE_5Yscenarioipo_trillion_plus

No $1T+ IPO through 2031

Prior probability

10.0%

Current probability

10.0%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

—

Signal quality

—

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-04-30 – 2031-12-31

Edges in / out

0 / 1

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

All trillion-dollar candidates remain private through horizon.

Predictor calibration

Not assigned

This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

0 prob_history rows

No probability history yet.

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 10%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.

Prerequisites (0)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No prerequisites

Dependents (1)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
correlate	246_005	OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.	Markets/Stocks	—

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "fork_key": "ipo",
  "dimension": "ipo_trillion_plus",
  "family_type": "mutually_exclusive",
  "family_label": "$1T+ IPO",
  "family_order": 4,
  "exclusive_within_dimension": true
}