Audit Log

{
  "current_prob": 0.39184
}

{
  "delta": -0.12370297028181698,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.268 blend=0.268 LLR=-0.565 κ=0.84 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.26813702971818304,
  "n_milestones": 2
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.39241
}

{
  "delta": -0.0547380892798488,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.338 blend=0.338 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3376719107201512,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.62806
}

{
  "delta": -0.2876977487558071,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.576 blend=0.340 LLR=-0.219 κ=0.77 w_in=0.61 humanoid_commercial_volume",
  "current_prob": 0.34036225124419284,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.62806
}

{
  "delta": -0.29414363350758166,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.564 blend=0.334 LLR=-0.266 κ=0.77 w_in=0.61 humanoid_commercial_volume",
  "current_prob": 0.3339163664924183,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.34205
}

{
  "delta": -0.15470317130852737,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.280 blend=0.187 LLR=-0.288 κ=0.77 w_in=0.58 humanoid_commercial_volume",
  "current_prob": 0.18734682869147265,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.44712
}

{
  "delta": -0.0500289891850943,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.397 blend=0.397 LLR=-0.205 κ=0.84 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3970910108149057,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.57919
}

{
  "delta": -0.07009893760356956,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.509 blend=0.509 LLR=-0.283 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.5090910623964304,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.58229
}

{
  "delta": -0.1725371397927008,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.410 blend=0.410 LLR=-0.697 κ=0.87 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.4097528602072992,
  "n_milestones": 2
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.46029
}

{
  "delta": -0.08225425805567088,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.378 blend=0.378 LLR=-0.339 κ=0.84 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3780357419443291,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.55636
}

{
  "delta": -0.17359424818464775,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.383 blend=0.383 LLR=-0.704 κ=0.87 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3827657518153522,
  "n_milestones": 2
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.44712
}

{
  "delta": -0.07031546022623858,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.377 blend=0.377 LLR=-0.291 κ=0.84 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.37680453977376144,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.58059
}

{
  "delta": -0.07410954741283338,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.506 blend=0.506 LLR=-0.299 κ=0.87 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.5064804525871667,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.44712
}

{
  "delta": -0.07031546022623858,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.377 blend=0.377 LLR=-0.291 κ=0.84 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.37680453977376144,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.44203
}

{
  "delta": -0.004137667493527231,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.303 blend=0.438 LLR=-0.599 κ=0.82 w_in=0.30 mars_uncrewed_landing_window",
  "current_prob": 0.43789233250647275,
  "n_milestones": 2
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.57392
}

{
  "delta": -0.0379509143311304,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.536 blend=0.536 LLR=-0.154 κ=0.58 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.5359690856688696,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.40399
}

{
  "delta": -0.028119895184772536,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.376 blend=0.376 LLR=-0.118 κ=0.58 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3758701048152275,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.40381
}

{
  "delta": -0.036401103931623435,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.367 blend=0.367 LLR=-0.154 κ=0.58 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.36740889606837657,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.37757
}

{
  "delta": -0.22633001711372394,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=5 inside=0.120 blend=0.151 LLR=-1.495 κ=0.84 w_in=0.56 agi_breakthrough_5y",
  "current_prob": 0.15123998288627608,
  "n_milestones": 5
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.5294
}

{
  "delta": -0.0623609941445985,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.467 blend=0.467 LLR=-0.250 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.4670390058554015,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.49149
}

{
  "delta": -0.03285122671513352,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.459 blend=0.459 LLR=-0.132 κ=0.50 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.45863877328486646,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.58459
}

{
  "delta": -0.17425403640270032,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.410 blend=0.410 LLR=-0.704 κ=0.87 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.41033596359729974,
  "n_milestones": 2
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.21751
}

{
  "delta": -0.06873152334737084,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.149 blend=0.149 LLR=-0.464 κ=0.64 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.14877847665262917,
  "n_milestones": 2
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.58059
}

{
  "delta": -0.08467227078827999,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.496 blend=0.496 LLR=-0.342 κ=0.87 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.49591772921172006,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.53975
}

{
  "delta": -0.1312855991542729,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.408 blend=0.408 LLR=-0.530 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.40846440084572705,
  "n_milestones": 2
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.48237
}

{
  "delta": -0.05864466177649852,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.424 blend=0.424 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.4237253382235015,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.58675
}

{
  "delta": -0.07394362515720887,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.513 blend=0.513 LLR=-0.299 κ=0.87 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.5128063748427911,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.48518
}

{
  "delta": -0.05045967682827002,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.435 blend=0.435 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.64 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.43472032317173,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.44788
}

{
  "delta": -0.07835348104797457,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.370 blend=0.370 LLR=-0.325 κ=0.84 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.36952651895202543,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.38533
}

{
  "delta": -0.2315443075924337,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.328 blend=0.154 LLR=-0.250 κ=0.82 w_in=0.56 regulatory_freeze_window",
  "current_prob": 0.15378569240756632,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.49497
}

{
  "delta": -0.06684897691107011,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.428 blend=0.428 LLR=-0.269 κ=0.72 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.4281210230889299,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.47266
}

{
  "delta": -0.0500787510532229,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.423 blend=0.423 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.4225812489467771,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.37106
}

{
  "delta": -0.12699424028227674,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.313 blend=0.244 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 w_in=0.43 agi_breakthrough_5y",
  "current_prob": 0.24406575971772326,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.55001
}

{
  "delta": -0.06499534023110137,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.485 blend=0.485 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.4850146597688986,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.2969
}

{
  "delta": -0.15940325641924621,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.162 blend=0.137 LLR=-0.782 κ=0.64 w_in=0.65 humanoid_commercial_volume",
  "current_prob": 0.13749674358075378,
  "n_milestones": 3
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.48478
}

{
  "delta": -0.16716118124219354,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.318 blend=0.318 LLR=-0.704 κ=0.64 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.31761881875780645,
  "n_milestones": 3
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.53975
}

{
  "delta": -0.21919737507031256,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=4 inside=0.321 blend=0.321 LLR=-0.911 κ=0.58 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3205526249296874,
  "n_milestones": 4
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.55311
}

{
  "delta": -0.006294199042107929,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.470 blend=0.547 LLR=-0.335 κ=0.87 w_in=0.30 fab_construction_3y",
  "current_prob": 0.5468158009578921,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.49494
}

{
  "delta": -0.06151593521892962,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.433 blend=0.433 LLR=-0.248 κ=0.64 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.4334240647810704,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.45147
}

{
  "delta": -0.15929734714085714,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.292 blend=0.292 LLR=-0.690 κ=0.87 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.29217265285914285,
  "n_milestones": 2
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.54275
}

{
  "delta": -0.07063643540130926,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.472 blend=0.472 LLR=-0.283 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.4721135645986907,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.58469
}

{
  "delta": -0.2560280179291355,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.329 blend=0.329 LLR=-1.056 κ=0.87 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.32866198207086456,
  "n_milestones": 3
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.53377
}

{
  "delta": -0.05916297021707795,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.475 blend=0.475 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.474607029782922,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.5198
}

{
  "delta": -0.03371594133598366,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.454 blend=0.486 LLR=-0.265 κ=0.69 w_in=0.30 energy_grid_rebuild_5y",
  "current_prob": 0.4860840586640164,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.50324
}

{
  "delta": -0.13610849682519466,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.367 blend=0.367 LLR=-0.558 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.36713150317480536,
  "n_milestones": 2
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.49494
}

{
  "delta": -0.06151593521892962,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.433 blend=0.433 LLR=-0.248 κ=0.64 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.4334240647810704,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.43161
}

{
  "delta": -0.08045975219174806,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.351 blend=0.351 LLR=-0.339 κ=0.84 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.35115024780825194,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.5178
}

{
  "delta": -0.15461550920970535,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.363 blend=0.363 LLR=-0.633 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3631844907902947,
  "n_milestones": 2
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.48237
}

{
  "delta": -0.05523771724975585,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.427 blend=0.427 LLR=-0.223 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.4271322827502442,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.30924
}

{
  "delta": -0.04821016842090897,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.261 blend=0.261 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.26102983157909104,
  "n_milestones": 1
}

{
  "current_prob": 0.54718
}

{
  "delta": -0.05908885230542954,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.488 blend=0.488 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.48809114769457046,
  "n_milestones": 1
}