Audit Log

Immutable change log. Every probability update, intake apply, validation adjudication, and bulk operation writes a row here with structured before/after JSON. Use these records to reconstruct any historical state. ← Ops

Total entries
732
Filtered
732
page 2 / 15
Distinct actions
33
Distinct kinds
16

Filters

Page size
WhenActorActionTargetBefore → After
2026-06-04 22:12:05metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:229_030
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.37679
}
{
  "delta": -0.20570868440856693,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.348 blend=0.171 LLR=-0.125 κ=0.77 w_in=0.39 humanoid_commercial_volume",
  "current_prob": 0.17108131559143308,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-06-04 22:12:05metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:240_007
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.45421
}
{
  "delta": -0.07668631865673808,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.378 blend=0.378 LLR=-0.316 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3775236813432619,
  "n_milestones": 2
}
2026-06-04 22:12:05metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:241_041
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.46435
}
{
  "delta": -0.07486817374416399,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.389 blend=0.389 LLR=-0.307 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.389481826255836,
  "n_milestones": 2
}
2026-06-04 22:12:05metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:242_008
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.48073
}
{
  "delta": -0.08105726440424843,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.400 blend=0.400 LLR=-0.330 κ=0.82 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.39967273559575156,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-06-04 22:12:05metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:242_020
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.37708
}
{
  "delta": -0.06291254804215696,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.314 blend=0.314 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.31416745195784307,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-06-04 22:12:05metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:248_014
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.3949
}
{
  "delta": -0.0707356105750343,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.324 blend=0.324 LLR=-0.308 κ=0.84 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.32416438942496567,
  "n_milestones": 2
}
2026-06-04 22:12:05metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:248_020
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.47407
}
{
  "delta": -0.07829878249176248,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.396 blend=0.396 LLR=-0.319 κ=0.88 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3957712175082375,
  "n_milestones": 2
}
2026-06-04 22:12:05metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:248_029
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.34195
}
{
  "delta": 0.006994326750678348,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.290 blend=0.349 LLR=-0.239 κ=0.84 w_in=0.39 fda_breakthrough_label",
  "current_prob": 0.3489443267506783,
  "n_milestones": 2
}
2026-06-03 22:11:48system:refresh_recommendationsrecommendations.refresh.run
view
{
  "recs_examined": 504,
  "positions_examined": 34
}
{
  "alerts_queued": 0
}
2026-06-03 22:11:48system:detect_prediction_conflictsprediction_conflicts.run
view
{
  "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start"
}
{
  "detected": 0
}
2026-06-03 22:11:47system:refresh_reference_class_base_ratesreference_class_base_rate_refresh
view
{
  "summary": "R3 refresh start",
  "examined": 19
}
{
  "rows": [],
  "below": [
    {
      "n": 10,
      "id": "mega_market_cap_5y"
    },
    {
      "n": 15,
      "id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 8,
      "id": "memory_supercycle_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 8,
      "id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 10,
      "id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y"
    },
    {
      "n": 20,
      "id": "single_stock_target_1y"
    },
    {
      "n": 20,
      "id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y"
    },
    {
      "n": 8,
      "id": "av_deployment_scale_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 20,
      "id": "political_crisis_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 5,
      "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
    },
    {
      "n": 12,
      "id": "fab_construction_3y"
    },
    {
      "n": 3,
      "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
    },
    {
      "n": 4,
      "id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
    },
    {
      "n": 4,
      "id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
    },
    {
      "n": 6,
      "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
    },
    {
      "n": 18,
      "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
    },
    {
      "n": 0,
      "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
    }
  ],
  "updated": 0,
  "examined": 19,
  "below_threshold": 17,
  "min_n_threshold": 30
}
2026-06-03 22:11:46system:decay_predictor_kappakappa_decay_run
view
{
  "summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
  "examined": 104
}
{
  "rows": [
    {
      "name": "Ben Lamm",
      "delta": -0.000018,
      "kappa_new": 0.687482,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Nvidia",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Morgan Stanley",
      "delta": -0.000013,
      "kappa_new": 0.633287,
      "kappa_old": 0.6333,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Codex Research Pack",
      "delta": -0.000034,
      "kappa_new": 0.849866,
      "kappa_old": 0.8499,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Micron",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Peter Diamandis",
      "delta": -0.000037,
      "kappa_new": 0.874963,
      "kappa_old": 0.875,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Demis Hassabis",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Superforecaster Community",
      "delta": -0.000014,
      "kappa_new": 0.642886,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
      "delta": -0.000034,
      "kappa_new": 0.843766,
      "kappa_old": 0.8438,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Dario Amodei",
      "delta": -0.000018,
      "kappa_new": 0.687482,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Anthropic",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Salim Ismail",
      "delta": -0.000014,
      "kappa_new": 0.642886,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Andrej Karpathy",
      "delta": -0.000018,
      "kappa_new": 0.687482,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Emad Mostaque",
      "delta": -0.000022,
      "kappa_new": 0.722178,
      "kappa_old": 0.7222,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Elon Musk",
      "delta": -0.000018,
      "kappa_new": 0.687482,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Joseph Moore",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Jack Dorsey",
      "delta": -0.000022,
      "kappa_new": 0.722178,
      "kappa_old": 0.7222,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Joe Liemandt",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Andrew Yang",
      "delta": -0.000018,
      "kappa_new": 0.687482,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Kevin Weil",
      "delta": -0.000018,
      "kappa_new": 0.687482,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Jimmy Ba",
      "delta": -0.000014,
      "kappa_new": 0.642886,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Brett Adcock",
      "delta": -0.000027,
      "kappa_new": 0.772673,
      "kappa_old": 0.7727,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "SpaceX",
      "delta": -0.000018,
      "kappa_new": 0.687482,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
      "delta": -0.000018,
      "kappa_new": 0.687482,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Jensen Huang",
      "delta": -0.00003,
      "kappa_new": 0.80767,
      "kappa_old": 0.8077,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Alex Finn",
      "delta": -0.000014,
      "kappa_new": 0.642886,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "David Holz",
      "delta": -0.000014,
      "kappa_new": 0.642886,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
      "delta": -0.000018,
      "kappa_new": 0.687482,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Dave Blundin",
      "delta": -0.000032,
      "kappa_new": 0.821368,
      "kappa_old": 0.8214,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Michael Saylor",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "New Market Pitch",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Sam Altman",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 11.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Eric Schmidt",
      "delta": -0.000018,
      "kappa_new": 0.687482,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 11.97
    }
  ],
  "alpha": 0.003,
  "updated": 38,
  "examined": 104,
  "kappa_prior": 0.5,
  "max_daily_decay": 0.01,
  "decay_horizon_days": 365
}
2026-06-03 22:11:45metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:247_012
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.39014
}
{
  "delta": -0.06659516934363419,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.324 blend=0.324 LLR=-0.291 κ=0.84 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3235448306563658,
  "n_milestones": 2
}
2026-06-03 22:11:45metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:248_034
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.42865
}
{
  "delta": -0.08911252089781985,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.340 blend=0.340 LLR=-0.378 κ=0.64 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.33953747910218013,
  "n_milestones": 3
}
2026-06-03 22:11:45metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:241_035
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.42275
}
{
  "delta": -0.06936784725425937,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.353 blend=0.353 LLR=-0.293 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.35338215274574064,
  "n_milestones": 2
}
2026-06-03 22:11:45metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:241_051
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.43332
}
{
  "delta": -0.05044583913720907,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.383 blend=0.383 LLR=-0.209 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3828741608627909,
  "n_milestones": 2
}
2026-06-03 22:11:45metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:246_035
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.54055
}
{
  "delta": -0.027416691368334356,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.400 blend=0.513 LLR=-0.195 κ=0.88 w_in=0.37 fab_construction_3y",
  "current_prob": 0.5131333086316656,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-06-02 22:14:45system:refresh_recommendationsrecommendations.refresh.run
view
{
  "recs_examined": 480,
  "positions_examined": 34
}
{
  "alerts_queued": 0
}
2026-06-02 22:14:44system:detect_prediction_conflictsprediction_conflicts.run
view
{
  "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start"
}
{
  "detected": 0
}
2026-06-02 22:14:44system:refresh_reference_class_base_ratesreference_class_base_rate_refresh
view
{
  "summary": "R3 refresh start",
  "examined": 19
}
{
  "rows": [],
  "below": [
    {
      "n": 10,
      "id": "mega_market_cap_5y"
    },
    {
      "n": 15,
      "id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 8,
      "id": "memory_supercycle_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 8,
      "id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 10,
      "id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y"
    },
    {
      "n": 20,
      "id": "single_stock_target_1y"
    },
    {
      "n": 20,
      "id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y"
    },
    {
      "n": 8,
      "id": "av_deployment_scale_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 20,
      "id": "political_crisis_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 5,
      "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
    },
    {
      "n": 12,
      "id": "fab_construction_3y"
    },
    {
      "n": 3,
      "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
    },
    {
      "n": 4,
      "id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
    },
    {
      "n": 4,
      "id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
    },
    {
      "n": 6,
      "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
    },
    {
      "n": 18,
      "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
    },
    {
      "n": 0,
      "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
    }
  ],
  "updated": 0,
  "examined": 19,
  "below_threshold": 17,
  "min_n_threshold": 30
}
2026-06-02 22:14:43system:decay_predictor_kappakappa_decay_run
view
{
  "summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
  "examined": 104
}
{
  "rows": [
    {
      "name": "Ben Lamm",
      "delta": -0.000017,
      "kappa_new": 0.687483,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Nvidia",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Morgan Stanley",
      "delta": -0.000012,
      "kappa_new": 0.633288,
      "kappa_old": 0.6333,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Codex Research Pack",
      "delta": -0.000032,
      "kappa_new": 0.849868,
      "kappa_old": 0.8499,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Micron",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Peter Diamandis",
      "delta": -0.000034,
      "kappa_new": 0.874966,
      "kappa_old": 0.875,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Demis Hassabis",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Superforecaster Community",
      "delta": -0.000013,
      "kappa_new": 0.642887,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Dario Amodei",
      "delta": -0.000017,
      "kappa_new": 0.687483,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
      "delta": -0.000031,
      "kappa_new": 0.843769,
      "kappa_old": 0.8438,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Andrej Karpathy",
      "delta": -0.000017,
      "kappa_new": 0.687483,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Anthropic",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Salim Ismail",
      "delta": -0.000013,
      "kappa_new": 0.642887,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Elon Musk",
      "delta": -0.000017,
      "kappa_new": 0.687483,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Joseph Moore",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Jack Dorsey",
      "delta": -0.00002,
      "kappa_new": 0.72218,
      "kappa_old": 0.7222,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Emad Mostaque",
      "delta": -0.00002,
      "kappa_new": 0.72218,
      "kappa_old": 0.7222,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Joe Liemandt",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Andrew Yang",
      "delta": -0.000017,
      "kappa_new": 0.687483,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Kevin Weil",
      "delta": -0.000017,
      "kappa_new": 0.687483,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Jimmy Ba",
      "delta": -0.000013,
      "kappa_new": 0.642887,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Brett Adcock",
      "delta": -0.000025,
      "kappa_new": 0.772675,
      "kappa_old": 0.7727,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "SpaceX",
      "delta": -0.000017,
      "kappa_new": 0.687483,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
      "delta": -0.000017,
      "kappa_new": 0.687483,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Jensen Huang",
      "delta": -0.000028,
      "kappa_new": 0.807672,
      "kappa_old": 0.8077,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Alex Finn",
      "delta": -0.000013,
      "kappa_new": 0.642887,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "David Holz",
      "delta": -0.000013,
      "kappa_new": 0.642887,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
      "delta": -0.000017,
      "kappa_new": 0.687483,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Dave Blundin",
      "delta": -0.000029,
      "kappa_new": 0.821371,
      "kappa_old": 0.8214,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Michael Saylor",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "New Market Pitch",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Sam Altman",
      "delta": -0.000008,
      "kappa_new": 0.583292,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 10.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Eric Schmidt",
      "delta": -0.000017,
      "kappa_new": 0.687483,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 10.97
    }
  ],
  "alpha": 0.003,
  "updated": 38,
  "examined": 104,
  "kappa_prior": 0.5,
  "max_daily_decay": 0.01,
  "decay_horizon_days": 365
}
2026-06-02 22:14:42metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:CMQ_057
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.60639
}
{
  "delta": -0.04928651500510772,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.557 blend=0.557 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.5571034849948923,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-06-01 22:11:03system:refresh_recommendationsrecommendations.refresh.run
view
{
  "recs_examined": 456,
  "positions_examined": 34
}
{
  "alerts_queued": 0
}
2026-06-01 22:11:03system:detect_prediction_conflictsprediction_conflicts.run
view
{
  "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start"
}
{
  "detected": 0
}
2026-06-01 22:11:03system:refresh_reference_class_base_ratesreference_class_base_rate_refresh
view
{
  "summary": "R3 refresh start",
  "examined": 19
}
{
  "rows": [],
  "below": [
    {
      "n": 10,
      "id": "mega_market_cap_5y"
    },
    {
      "n": 15,
      "id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 8,
      "id": "memory_supercycle_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 8,
      "id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 10,
      "id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y"
    },
    {
      "n": 20,
      "id": "single_stock_target_1y"
    },
    {
      "n": 20,
      "id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y"
    },
    {
      "n": 8,
      "id": "av_deployment_scale_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 20,
      "id": "political_crisis_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 5,
      "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
    },
    {
      "n": 12,
      "id": "fab_construction_3y"
    },
    {
      "n": 3,
      "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
    },
    {
      "n": 4,
      "id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
    },
    {
      "n": 4,
      "id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
    },
    {
      "n": 6,
      "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
    },
    {
      "n": 18,
      "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
    },
    {
      "n": 0,
      "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
    }
  ],
  "updated": 0,
  "examined": 19,
  "below_threshold": 17,
  "min_n_threshold": 30
}
2026-06-01 22:11:02system:decay_predictor_kappakappa_decay_run
view
{
  "summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
  "examined": 104
}
{
  "rows": [
    {
      "name": "Ben Lamm",
      "delta": -0.000015,
      "kappa_new": 0.687485,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Nvidia",
      "delta": -0.000007,
      "kappa_new": 0.583293,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Morgan Stanley",
      "delta": -0.000011,
      "kappa_new": 0.633289,
      "kappa_old": 0.6333,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
      "delta": -0.000007,
      "kappa_new": 0.583293,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
      "delta": -0.000028,
      "kappa_new": 0.843772,
      "kappa_old": 0.8438,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Codex Research Pack",
      "delta": -0.000029,
      "kappa_new": 0.849871,
      "kappa_old": 0.8499,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Micron",
      "delta": -0.000007,
      "kappa_new": 0.583293,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Peter Diamandis",
      "delta": -0.000031,
      "kappa_new": 0.874969,
      "kappa_old": 0.875,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Andrej Karpathy",
      "delta": -0.000015,
      "kappa_new": 0.687485,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Demis Hassabis",
      "delta": -0.000007,
      "kappa_new": 0.583293,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Superforecaster Community",
      "delta": -0.000012,
      "kappa_new": 0.642888,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Anthropic",
      "delta": -0.000007,
      "kappa_new": 0.583293,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Dario Amodei",
      "delta": -0.000015,
      "kappa_new": 0.687485,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Elon Musk",
      "delta": -0.000015,
      "kappa_new": 0.687485,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Joseph Moore",
      "delta": -0.000007,
      "kappa_new": 0.583293,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Jack Dorsey",
      "delta": -0.000018,
      "kappa_new": 0.722182,
      "kappa_old": 0.7222,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Emad Mostaque",
      "delta": -0.000018,
      "kappa_new": 0.722182,
      "kappa_old": 0.7222,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Joe Liemandt",
      "delta": -0.000007,
      "kappa_new": 0.583293,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Kevin Weil",
      "delta": -0.000015,
      "kappa_new": 0.687485,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Andrew Yang",
      "delta": -0.000015,
      "kappa_new": 0.687485,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Jimmy Ba",
      "delta": -0.000012,
      "kappa_new": 0.642888,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "SpaceX",
      "delta": -0.000015,
      "kappa_new": 0.687485,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
      "delta": -0.000007,
      "kappa_new": 0.583293,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Brett Adcock",
      "delta": -0.000022,
      "kappa_new": 0.772678,
      "kappa_old": 0.7727,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
      "delta": -0.000007,
      "kappa_new": 0.583293,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Jensen Huang",
      "delta": -0.000025,
      "kappa_new": 0.807675,
      "kappa_old": 0.8077,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Alex Finn",
      "delta": -0.000012,
      "kappa_new": 0.642888,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
      "delta": -0.000015,
      "kappa_new": 0.687485,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "David Holz",
      "delta": -0.000012,
      "kappa_new": 0.642888,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
      "delta": -0.000015,
      "kappa_new": 0.687485,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Dave Blundin",
      "delta": -0.000026,
      "kappa_new": 0.821374,
      "kappa_old": 0.8214,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
      "delta": -0.000007,
      "kappa_new": 0.583293,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Michael Saylor",
      "delta": -0.000007,
      "kappa_new": 0.583293,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
      "delta": -0.000007,
      "kappa_new": 0.583293,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "New Market Pitch",
      "delta": -0.000007,
      "kappa_new": 0.583293,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Salim Ismail",
      "delta": -0.000012,
      "kappa_new": 0.642888,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Sam Altman",
      "delta": -0.000007,
      "kappa_new": 0.583293,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 9.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Eric Schmidt",
      "delta": -0.000015,
      "kappa_new": 0.687485,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 9.97
    }
  ],
  "alpha": 0.003,
  "updated": 38,
  "examined": 104,
  "kappa_prior": 0.5,
  "max_daily_decay": 0.01,
  "decay_horizon_days": 365
}
2026-06-01 22:11:01metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:CMQ_045
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.49282
}
{
  "delta": -0.06371265921497637,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.429 blend=0.429 LLR=-0.257 κ=0.63 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.4291073407850236,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-05-31 22:09:43system:refresh_recommendationsrecommendations.refresh.run
view
{
  "recs_examined": 435,
  "positions_examined": 34
}
{
  "alerts_queued": 0
}
2026-05-31 22:09:43system:detect_prediction_conflictsprediction_conflicts.run
view
{
  "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start"
}
{
  "detected": 0
}
2026-05-31 22:09:42system:refresh_reference_class_base_ratesreference_class_base_rate_refresh
view
{
  "summary": "R3 refresh start",
  "examined": 19
}
{
  "rows": [],
  "below": [
    {
      "n": 10,
      "id": "mega_market_cap_5y"
    },
    {
      "n": 15,
      "id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 8,
      "id": "memory_supercycle_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 8,
      "id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 10,
      "id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y"
    },
    {
      "n": 20,
      "id": "single_stock_target_1y"
    },
    {
      "n": 20,
      "id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y"
    },
    {
      "n": 8,
      "id": "av_deployment_scale_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 20,
      "id": "political_crisis_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 5,
      "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
    },
    {
      "n": 12,
      "id": "fab_construction_3y"
    },
    {
      "n": 3,
      "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
    },
    {
      "n": 4,
      "id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
    },
    {
      "n": 4,
      "id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
    },
    {
      "n": 6,
      "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
    },
    {
      "n": 18,
      "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
    },
    {
      "n": 0,
      "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
    }
  ],
  "updated": 0,
  "examined": 19,
  "below_threshold": 17,
  "min_n_threshold": 30
}
2026-05-31 22:09:42system:decay_predictor_kappakappa_decay_run
view
{
  "summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
  "examined": 104
}
{
  "rows": [
    {
      "name": "Ben Lamm",
      "delta": -0.000014,
      "kappa_new": 0.687486,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Nvidia",
      "delta": -0.000006,
      "kappa_new": 0.583294,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Morgan Stanley",
      "delta": -0.00001,
      "kappa_new": 0.63329,
      "kappa_old": 0.6333,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
      "delta": -0.000006,
      "kappa_new": 0.583294,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Peter Diamandis",
      "delta": -0.000028,
      "kappa_new": 0.874972,
      "kappa_old": 0.875,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
      "delta": -0.000025,
      "kappa_new": 0.843775,
      "kappa_old": 0.8438,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Codex Research Pack",
      "delta": -0.000026,
      "kappa_new": 0.849874,
      "kappa_old": 0.8499,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Micron",
      "delta": -0.000006,
      "kappa_new": 0.583294,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Andrej Karpathy",
      "delta": -0.000014,
      "kappa_new": 0.687486,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Anthropic",
      "delta": -0.000006,
      "kappa_new": 0.583294,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Demis Hassabis",
      "delta": -0.000006,
      "kappa_new": 0.583294,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Dario Amodei",
      "delta": -0.000014,
      "kappa_new": 0.687486,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Elon Musk",
      "delta": -0.000014,
      "kappa_new": 0.687486,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Joseph Moore",
      "delta": -0.000006,
      "kappa_new": 0.583294,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Jack Dorsey",
      "delta": -0.000016,
      "kappa_new": 0.722184,
      "kappa_old": 0.7222,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Emad Mostaque",
      "delta": -0.000016,
      "kappa_new": 0.722184,
      "kappa_old": 0.7222,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Joe Liemandt",
      "delta": -0.000006,
      "kappa_new": 0.583294,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Kevin Weil",
      "delta": -0.000014,
      "kappa_new": 0.687486,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Andrew Yang",
      "delta": -0.000014,
      "kappa_new": 0.687486,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Superforecaster Community",
      "delta": -0.000011,
      "kappa_new": 0.642889,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Jimmy Ba",
      "delta": -0.000011,
      "kappa_new": 0.642889,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
      "delta": -0.000006,
      "kappa_new": 0.583294,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "SpaceX",
      "delta": -0.000014,
      "kappa_new": 0.687486,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
      "delta": -0.000006,
      "kappa_new": 0.583294,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Brett Adcock",
      "delta": -0.00002,
      "kappa_new": 0.77268,
      "kappa_old": 0.7727,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Alex Finn",
      "delta": -0.000011,
      "kappa_new": 0.642889,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
      "delta": -0.000014,
      "kappa_new": 0.687486,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Jensen Huang",
      "delta": -0.000023,
      "kappa_new": 0.807677,
      "kappa_old": 0.8077,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "David Holz",
      "delta": -0.000011,
      "kappa_new": 0.642889,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
      "delta": -0.000014,
      "kappa_new": 0.687486,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Dave Blundin",
      "delta": -0.000024,
      "kappa_new": 0.821376,
      "kappa_old": 0.8214,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
      "delta": -0.000006,
      "kappa_new": 0.583294,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Michael Saylor",
      "delta": -0.000006,
      "kappa_new": 0.583294,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
      "delta": -0.000006,
      "kappa_new": 0.583294,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "New Market Pitch",
      "delta": -0.000006,
      "kappa_new": 0.583294,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Salim Ismail",
      "delta": -0.000011,
      "kappa_new": 0.642889,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Sam Altman",
      "delta": -0.000006,
      "kappa_new": 0.583294,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 8.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Eric Schmidt",
      "delta": -0.000014,
      "kappa_new": 0.687486,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 8.97
    }
  ],
  "alpha": 0.003,
  "updated": 38,
  "examined": 104,
  "kappa_prior": 0.5,
  "max_daily_decay": 0.01,
  "decay_horizon_days": 365
}
2026-05-31 22:09:40metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:234_015
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.49391
}
{
  "delta": -0.0413256874576311,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.424 blend=0.453 LLR=-0.284 κ=0.88 w_in=0.62 ipo_trillion_plus",
  "current_prob": 0.4525843125423689,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-05-31 22:09:40metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:240_055
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.45075
}
{
  "delta": 0.01698722114495599,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.394 blend=0.468 LLR=-0.233 κ=0.82 w_in=0.30 ipo_trillion_plus",
  "current_prob": 0.467737221144956,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-05-31 22:09:40metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:241_051
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.46435
}
{
  "delta": -0.031025175120269588,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.433 blend=0.433 LLR=-0.125 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.4333248248797304,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-05-31 22:09:40metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:AI_002
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.33753
}
{
  "delta": -0.17447450491660846,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.278 blend=0.163 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 w_in=0.45 humanoid_commercial_volume",
  "current_prob": 0.16305549508339154,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-05-31 22:09:40milestone_miss_sweepnode.milestone_missnode:235_016
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.45463
}
{
  "delta": -0.14213595220759961,
  "reason": "milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.312 blend=0.312 LLR=-0.607 κ=0.88 w_in=1.00 ipo_trillion_plus",
  "current_prob": 0.31249404779240036,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-05-31 22:09:40milestone_miss_sweepnode.milestone_missnode:INF_012
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.50941
}
{
  "delta": -0.04938724342555584,
  "reason": "milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.401 blend=0.460 LLR=-0.439 κ=0.63 w_in=0.40 energy_grid_rebuild_5y",
  "current_prob": 0.4600227565744442,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-05-31 02:00:02lbp_run:807dd6f649b1lbp.completedlbp_run:807dd6f649b1
view
{
  "edge_count": 11986,
  "node_count": 1635
}
{
  "residual": 0.006741,
  "converged": true,
  "top_moves": [
    {
      "delta": 0.08637,
      "node_id": "CMQ_052"
    },
    {
      "delta": 0.0862,
      "node_id": "CMQ_004"
    },
    {
      "delta": 0.08593,
      "node_id": "IND_023"
    },
    {
      "delta": 0.08303,
      "node_id": "235_019"
    },
    {
      "delta": 0.08196,
      "node_id": "INF_004"
    },
    {
      "delta": 0.07844,
      "node_id": "CYB_005"
    },
    {
      "delta": 0.07661,
      "node_id": "INF_037"
    },
    {
      "delta": -0.07413,
      "node_id": "SEM_036"
    },
    {
      "delta": -0.07039,
      "node_id": "INF_016"
    },
    {
      "delta": -0.0648,
      "node_id": "CMQ_028"
    }
  ],
  "iterations": 4,
  "applied_beliefs": false,
  "n_significant_moves": 118
}
2026-05-30 22:15:04system:refresh_recommendationsrecommendations.refresh.run
view
{
  "recs_examined": 417,
  "positions_examined": 34
}
{
  "alerts_queued": 0
}
2026-05-30 22:15:04system:detect_prediction_conflictsprediction_conflicts.run
view
{
  "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start"
}
{
  "detected": 0
}
2026-05-30 22:15:03system:refresh_reference_class_base_ratesreference_class_base_rate_refresh
view
{
  "summary": "R3 refresh start",
  "examined": 19
}
{
  "rows": [],
  "below": [
    {
      "n": 10,
      "id": "mega_market_cap_5y"
    },
    {
      "n": 15,
      "id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 8,
      "id": "memory_supercycle_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 8,
      "id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 10,
      "id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y"
    },
    {
      "n": 20,
      "id": "single_stock_target_1y"
    },
    {
      "n": 20,
      "id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y"
    },
    {
      "n": 8,
      "id": "av_deployment_scale_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 20,
      "id": "political_crisis_2y"
    },
    {
      "n": 5,
      "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
    },
    {
      "n": 12,
      "id": "fab_construction_3y"
    },
    {
      "n": 3,
      "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
    },
    {
      "n": 4,
      "id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
    },
    {
      "n": 4,
      "id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
    },
    {
      "n": 6,
      "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
    },
    {
      "n": 18,
      "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
    },
    {
      "n": 0,
      "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
    }
  ],
  "updated": 0,
  "examined": 19,
  "below_threshold": 17,
  "min_n_threshold": 30
}
2026-05-30 22:15:03system:decay_predictor_kappakappa_decay_run
view
{
  "summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
  "examined": 104
}
{
  "rows": [
    {
      "name": "Ben Lamm",
      "delta": -0.000012,
      "kappa_new": 0.687488,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
      "delta": -0.000023,
      "kappa_new": 0.843777,
      "kappa_old": 0.8438,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Codex Research Pack",
      "delta": -0.000023,
      "kappa_new": 0.849877,
      "kappa_old": 0.8499,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Micron",
      "delta": -0.000005,
      "kappa_new": 0.583295,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Andrej Karpathy",
      "delta": -0.000012,
      "kappa_new": 0.687488,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Anthropic",
      "delta": -0.000005,
      "kappa_new": 0.583295,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Demis Hassabis",
      "delta": -0.000005,
      "kappa_new": 0.583295,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Dario Amodei",
      "delta": -0.000012,
      "kappa_new": 0.687488,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Elon Musk",
      "delta": -0.000012,
      "kappa_new": 0.687488,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Joseph Moore",
      "delta": -0.000005,
      "kappa_new": 0.583295,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Jack Dorsey",
      "delta": -0.000015,
      "kappa_new": 0.722185,
      "kappa_old": 0.7222,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Emad Mostaque",
      "delta": -0.000015,
      "kappa_new": 0.722185,
      "kappa_old": 0.7222,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Joe Liemandt",
      "delta": -0.000005,
      "kappa_new": 0.583295,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Kevin Weil",
      "delta": -0.000012,
      "kappa_new": 0.687488,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Andrew Yang",
      "delta": -0.000012,
      "kappa_new": 0.687488,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Superforecaster Community",
      "delta": -0.000009,
      "kappa_new": 0.642891,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Jimmy Ba",
      "delta": -0.000009,
      "kappa_new": 0.642891,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
      "delta": -0.000005,
      "kappa_new": 0.583295,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "SpaceX",
      "delta": -0.000012,
      "kappa_new": 0.687488,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
      "delta": -0.000005,
      "kappa_new": 0.583295,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Brett Adcock",
      "delta": -0.000018,
      "kappa_new": 0.772682,
      "kappa_old": 0.7727,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Alex Finn",
      "delta": -0.000009,
      "kappa_new": 0.642891,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
      "delta": -0.000012,
      "kappa_new": 0.687488,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Jensen Huang",
      "delta": -0.00002,
      "kappa_new": 0.80768,
      "kappa_old": 0.8077,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "David Holz",
      "delta": -0.000009,
      "kappa_new": 0.642891,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
      "delta": -0.000012,
      "kappa_new": 0.687488,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Dave Blundin",
      "delta": -0.000021,
      "kappa_new": 0.821379,
      "kappa_old": 0.8214,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
      "delta": -0.000005,
      "kappa_new": 0.583295,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Michael Saylor",
      "delta": -0.000005,
      "kappa_new": 0.583295,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
      "delta": -0.000005,
      "kappa_new": 0.583295,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "New Market Pitch",
      "delta": -0.000005,
      "kappa_new": 0.583295,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Nvidia",
      "delta": -0.000005,
      "kappa_new": 0.583295,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Morgan Stanley",
      "delta": -0.000009,
      "kappa_new": 0.633291,
      "kappa_old": 0.6333,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
      "delta": -0.000005,
      "kappa_new": 0.583295,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Peter Diamandis",
      "delta": -0.000025,
      "kappa_new": 0.874975,
      "kappa_old": 0.875,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Salim Ismail",
      "delta": -0.000009,
      "kappa_new": 0.642891,
      "kappa_old": 0.6429,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Sam Altman",
      "delta": -0.000005,
      "kappa_new": 0.583295,
      "kappa_old": 0.5833,
      "days_since": 7.97
    },
    {
      "name": "Eric Schmidt",
      "delta": -0.000012,
      "kappa_new": 0.687488,
      "kappa_old": 0.6875,
      "days_since": 7.97
    }
  ],
  "alpha": 0.003,
  "updated": 38,
  "examined": 104,
  "kappa_prior": 0.5,
  "max_daily_decay": 0.01,
  "decay_horizon_days": 365
}
2026-05-30 22:15:00metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:241_025
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.43481
}
{
  "delta": -0.05708434221775749,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.378 blend=0.378 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.3777256577822425,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-05-30 22:15:00metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:241_031
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.52598
}
{
  "delta": -0.04874537088082043,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.477 blend=0.477 LLR=-0.195 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.4772346291191796,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-05-30 22:15:00metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:232_046
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.36586
}
{
  "delta": -0.040929136652571474,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.325 blend=0.325 LLR=-0.181 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.32493086334742854,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-05-30 22:15:00metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:234_017
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.45421
}
{
  "delta": -0.042281408221289174,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.412 blend=0.412 LLR=-0.172 κ=0.50 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.41192859177871083,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-05-30 22:15:00metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:235_019
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.33836
}
{
  "delta": -0.210631052158486,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.218 blend=0.128 LLR=-0.607 κ=0.88 w_in=0.30 humanoid_commercial_volume",
  "current_prob": 0.127728947841514,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-05-30 22:15:00metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:235_027
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.54014
}
{
  "delta": -0.07524961655595047,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.465 blend=0.465 LLR=-0.302 κ=0.88 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.4648903834440495,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-05-30 22:15:00metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:236_014
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.48875
}
{
  "delta": -0.06354859946807828,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.425 blend=0.425 LLR=-0.256 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.42520140053192174,
  "n_milestones": 1
}
2026-05-30 22:15:00metadata_milestone_sweepnode.metadata_milestone_missnode:236_049
view
{
  "current_prob": 0.50021
}
{
  "delta": -0.06856035187158516,
  "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.432 blend=0.432 LLR=-0.276 κ=0.69 no_blend",
  "current_prob": 0.4316496481284149,
  "n_milestones": 1
}