Audit Log

Immutable change log. Every probability update, intake apply, validation adjudication, and bulk operation writes a row here with structured before/after JSON. Use these records to reconstruct any historical state. ← Ops

Total entries

712

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712

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Distinct actions

Distinct kinds

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All doc_node_link doc_node_links edges intake_session lbp_run node nodes position_recommendations prediction prediction_conflicts predictions predictors reference_classes research_event_pack scenarios source_reliability

Actor (top 50)

All apply_llm_milestones apply_low_confidence_decisions assign_predictions_to_scenarios backfill_resolution_history backfill_resolved_at build_scenario_paths codex compute_brier_scores compute_display_dates derive_milestones disperse_december_bunching fix_partial_classification intake:515b84c4-6b29-4d57-8dd6-d41dac…intake:568095f6-eb44-4f96-92d3-13455b…intake:7afeeb9a-f217-4dd2-b910-24ff14…intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87…intake:c130222f-ab93-4d94-b596-5f4dc7…lbp_run:0c8a4ea3431e lbp_run:1a683ac9e205 lbp_run:1c6a06976c86 lbp_run:592311ef6bca lbp_run:806b02f82f58 lbp_run:807dd6f649b1 lbp_run:ba893ab6499f lbp_run:cd8605f31f33 lbp_run:e5c18d29fb42 lbp_run:e607fa961f0b lbp_run:ffd25072aee9 link_trajectories_to_dimensions manual_override metadata_milestone_sweep milestone_miss_sweep phase_2A.2_grader phase_2A.3_isolated_linker phase_2A_backfill phase2_part3_smoke_test phase3_p4_smoke_test phase3_p6_smoke_test seed_source_reliability stage_recalibration_candidates system:auto_corroborate system:decay_predictor_kappa system:detect_prediction_conflicts system:import_recommendations system:refresh_recommendations system:refresh_reference_class_base_r…tune_edge_weights

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When	Actor	Action	Target	Before → After
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_029	view { "current_prob": 0.78837 } { "delta": -0.047356197040561265, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.877 blend=0.741 LLR=-0.639 κ=0.81 w_in=0.44 fab_construction_3y", "current_prob": 0.7410138029594387, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_030	view { "current_prob": 0.41352 } { "delta": -0.07657225508386051, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.337 blend=0.337 LLR=-0.327 κ=0.81 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3369477449161395, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_035	view { "current_prob": 0.69241 } { "delta": -0.01736839323677375, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.776 blend=0.675 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 w_in=0.44 fab_construction_3y", "current_prob": 0.6750416067632262, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_042	view { "current_prob": 0.40958 } { "delta": -0.06036307170066252, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.349 blend=0.349 LLR=-0.257 κ=0.63 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3492169282993375, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_047	view { "current_prob": 0.58003 } { "delta": -0.06899657256347791, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.511 blend=0.511 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5110334274365221, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_052	view { "current_prob": 0.41184 } { "delta": -0.19043960591073533, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.339 blend=0.221 LLR=-0.313 κ=0.77 w_in=0.62 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.22140039408926465, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_056	view { "current_prob": 0.34056 } { "delta": -0.15168049158132269, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.281 blend=0.189 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 w_in=0.59 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.1888795084186773, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_058	view { "current_prob": 0.65016 } { "delta": -0.061343633502711103, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.589 blend=0.589 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5888163664972889, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_059	view { "current_prob": 0.70778 } { "delta": -0.08375639299458659, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.624 blend=0.624 LLR=-0.378 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6240236070054134, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:COD_BIO_001	view { "current_prob": 0.50481 } { "delta": -0.03871135755254196, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.466 blend=0.466 LLR=-0.155 κ=0.85 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.466098642447458, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:IND_017	view { "current_prob": 0.18082 } { "delta": -0.06676572789300368, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.134 blend=0.114 LLR=-0.355 κ=0.88 w_in=0.44 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.11405427210699633, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:IND_023	view { "current_prob": 0.39825 } { "delta": -0.17812742468738718, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.320 blend=0.220 LLR=-0.342 κ=0.84 w_in=0.65 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.2201225753126128, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:IND_025	view { "current_prob": 0.32007 } { "delta": -0.09232132076862576, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.266 blend=0.228 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 w_in=0.44 agi_breakthrough_5y", "current_prob": 0.22774867923137426, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:ROB_009	view { "current_prob": 0.27981 } { "delta": -0.09488363786096118, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.227 blend=0.185 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 w_in=0.73 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.18492636213903882, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:ROB_023	view { "current_prob": 0.62549 } { "delta": -0.04855974748415115, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.577 blend=0.577 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5769302525158488, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_018	view { "current_prob": 0.52026 } { "delta": -0.05063788896905952, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.470 blend=0.470 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4696221110309404, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_019	view { "current_prob": 0.583 } { "delta": -0.037360943740724406, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.546 blend=0.546 LLR=-0.152 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5456390562592756, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_023	view { "current_prob": 0.66946 } { "delta": -0.04311780322539871, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.626 blend=0.626 LLR=-0.189 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6263421967746013, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_046	view { "current_prob": 0.58445 } { "delta": -0.04949484106747115, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.535 blend=0.535 LLR=-0.201 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5349551589325289, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SPC_020	view { "current_prob": 0.32452 } { "delta": -0.0645946705124344, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.260 blend=0.260 LLR=-0.313 κ=0.77 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.2599253294875656, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SPC_021	view { "current_prob": 0.50227 } { "delta": -0.04864525205336495, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.454 blend=0.454 LLR=-0.195 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.45362474794663504, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SPC_022	view { "current_prob": 0.48301 } { "delta": -0.06883282595206125, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.414 blend=0.414 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.41417717404793875, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-24 02:00:02	`lbp_run:806b02f82f58`	`lbp.completed`	lbp_run:806b02f82f58	view { "edge_count": 11986, "node_count": 1635 } { "residual": 0.009997, "converged": true, "top_moves": [ { "delta": 0.15258, "node_id": "INF_037" }, { "delta": 0.13599, "node_id": "INF_004" }, { "delta": -0.12962, "node_id": "CMQ_017" }, { "delta": -0.12274, "node_id": "INF_016" }, { "delta": 0.11898, "node_id": "CYB_005" }, { "delta": -0.11355, "node_id": "SEM_036" }, { "delta": -0.10816, "node_id": "CMQ_040" }, { "delta": -0.09916, "node_id": "CMQ_028" }, { "delta": -0.09511, "node_id": "SEM_023" }, { "delta": -0.08721, "node_id": "AUT_008" } ], "iterations": 4, "applied_beliefs": true, "n_significant_moves": 165 }
2026-05-22 23:00:01	`compute_brier_scores`	`predictors.brier_recompute`	predictors:continual_20260522	view { "max_delta": 0.05, "smoothing": true } { "kappa_shifts": [ { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "new_kappa": 0.8499, "old_kappa": 0.8999, "raw_delta": -0.3999 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "new_kappa": 0.6875, "old_kappa": 0.6429, "raw_delta": 0.0446 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "new_kappa": 0.6875, "old_kappa": 0.6429, "raw_delta": 0.0446 }, { "name": "Micron", "new_kappa": 0.5833, "old_kappa": 0.55, "raw_delta": 0.0333 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "new_kappa": 0.6333, "old_kappa": 0.5833, "raw_delta": 0.0596 } ], "n_resolved_total": 113, "n_predictors_updated": 104 }
2026-05-21 23:15:16	`intake:7afeeb9a-f217-4dd2-b910-24ff14bdfc39`	`intake.applied`	intake_session:7afeeb9a-f217-4dd2-b910-24ff14bdfc39	view (null) { "bayesian_v2": true, "event_updates": 46, "kappa_summary": { "n": 46, "max": 0.875, "min": 0.5, "mean": 0.6824326086956524, "distinct_predictors": 17 }, "blends_applied": 16, "indicator_updates": 3, "new_events_skipped": 4, "skipped_updates_count": 0, "anomaly_flags_captured": 4, "blends_skipped_no_class": 30, "regime_signals_captured": 4, "ticker_attribution_captured": 11 }
2026-05-19 22:16:09	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 190, "positions_examined": 34 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-19 22:16:08	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-19 22:16:08	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-19 22:16:07	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.687475, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.549993, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000053, "kappa_new": 0.899947, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.687475, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000019, "kappa_new": 0.642881, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000019, "kappa_new": 0.642881, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000029, "kappa_new": 0.722171, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000019, "kappa_new": 0.642881, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000019, "kappa_new": 0.642881, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000029, "kappa_new": 0.722171, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.687475, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.687475, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000045, "kappa_new": 0.843755, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000019, "kappa_new": 0.642881, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.687475, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000036, "kappa_new": 0.772664, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.687475, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000019, "kappa_new": 0.642881, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.00004, "kappa_new": 0.80766, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000042, "kappa_new": 0.821358, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000019, "kappa_new": 0.642881, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.687475, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000049, "kappa_new": 0.874951, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.687475, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 15.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-19 22:16:06	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_034	view { "current_prob": 0.78644 } { "delta": -0.011045029643714233, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.920 blend=0.775 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 w_in=0.43 fab_construction_3y", "current_prob": 0.7753949703562858, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-19 22:16:06	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_039	view { "current_prob": 0.68239 } { "delta": -0.023648778048576125, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.714 blend=0.659 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 w_in=0.57 fab_construction_3y", "current_prob": 0.6587412219514239, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-19 22:16:06	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_041	view { "current_prob": 0.69381 } { "delta": -0.017346379800103895, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.782 blend=0.676 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 w_in=0.43 fab_construction_3y", "current_prob": 0.6764636201998961, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-18 22:13:13	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 179, "positions_examined": 34 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-18 22:13:12	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-18 22:13:12	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-18 22:13:11	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000049, "kappa_new": 0.899951, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.549994, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.642882, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000027, "kappa_new": 0.722173, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.642882, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.642882, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.642882, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000027, "kappa_new": 0.722173, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000042, "kappa_new": 0.843758, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.642882, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000034, "kappa_new": 0.772666, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.642882, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000038, "kappa_new": 0.807662, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.00004, "kappa_new": 0.82136, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.642882, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000046, "kappa_new": 0.874954, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-17 22:12:28	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 168, "positions_examined": 34 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-17 22:12:28	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-17 22:12:27	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-17 22:12:27	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000037, "kappa_new": 0.821363, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.549994, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000046, "kappa_new": 0.899954, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.642884, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.642884, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000026, "kappa_new": 0.722174, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.642884, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.642884, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000026, "kappa_new": 0.722174, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000039, "kappa_new": 0.843761, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.642884, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000031, "kappa_new": 0.772669, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.642884, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.642884, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000035, "kappa_new": 0.807665, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000043, "kappa_new": 0.874957, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-17 22:12:26	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CYB_005	view { "current_prob": 0.33896 } { "delta": -0.1566793610845642, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.295 blend=0.182 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 w_in=0.70 regulatory_freeze_window", "current_prob": 0.18228063891543578, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-17 02:00:01	`lbp_run:e607fa961f0b`	`lbp.completed`	lbp_run:e607fa961f0b	view { "edge_count": 11986, "node_count": 1621 } { "residual": 0.006892, "converged": true, "top_moves": [ { "delta": -0.1248, "node_id": "COD_SPC_004" }, { "delta": 0.10881, "node_id": "CYB_005" }, { "delta": -0.10068, "node_id": "CMQ_053" }, { "delta": 0.09561, "node_id": "229_045" }, { "delta": 0.08918, "node_id": "INF_037" }, { "delta": 0.07831, "node_id": "230_046" }, { "delta": -0.07606, "node_id": "COD_SPC_005" }, { "delta": -0.06916, "node_id": "CMQ_038" }, { "delta": 0.06401, "node_id": "248_041" }, { "delta": -0.05767, "node_id": "246_016" } ], "iterations": 5, "applied_beliefs": true, "n_significant_moves": 449 }
2026-05-16 22:11:19	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 157, "positions_examined": 34 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-16 22:11:18	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-16 22:11:18	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-16 22:11:17	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000034, "kappa_new": 0.821366, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.549995, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000043, "kappa_new": 0.899957, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.642885, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.642885, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000024, "kappa_new": 0.722176, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.642885, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.642885, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000024, "kappa_new": 0.722176, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000029, "kappa_new": 0.772671, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.642885, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000037, "kappa_new": 0.843763, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.642885, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000033, "kappa_new": 0.807667, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.642885, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.00004, "kappa_new": 0.87496, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-16 22:11:16	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:246_007	view { "current_prob": 0.53009 } { "delta": -0.0752299723608098, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.455 blend=0.455 LLR=-0.302 κ=0.88 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.45486002763919015, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-16 22:11:16	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AI_019	view { "current_prob": 0.39951 } { "delta": -0.026430889839689387, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.373 blend=0.373 LLR=-0.112 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3730791101603106, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-16 22:11:16	`milestone_miss_sweep`	`node.milestone_miss`	node:229_045	view { "current_prob": 0.27035 } { "delta": -0.1499035278077958, "reason": "milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.178 blend=0.120 LLR=-0.536 κ=0.77 w_in=0.31 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.12044647219220415, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-15 22:14:54	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 142, "positions_examined": 34 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-15 22:14:53	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-15 22:14:53	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-15 22:14:52	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000032, "kappa_new": 0.821368, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.549995, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000039, "kappa_new": 0.899961, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.642886, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.642886, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.722178, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.642886, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000027, "kappa_new": 0.772673, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.642886, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000034, "kappa_new": 0.843766, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.642886, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.642886, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.00003, "kappa_new": 0.80767, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.722178, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.642886, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000037, "kappa_new": 0.874963, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-15 22:14:51	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:243_032	view { "current_prob": 0.50992 } { "delta": -0.05907450754936677, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.451 blend=0.451 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.45084549245063327, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-15 22:14:51	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CYB_008	view { "current_prob": 0.73675 } { "delta": -0.04834977951601427, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.688 blend=0.688 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6884002204839857, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-15 22:14:51	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:INF_014	view { "current_prob": 0.44115 } { "delta": -0.057247258508718535, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.384 blend=0.384 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.38390274149128145, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-15 22:14:51	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_046	view { "current_prob": 0.59022 } { "delta": -0.05816878823536298, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.532 blend=0.532 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.532051211764637, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-14 22:14:35	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 131, "positions_examined": 34 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-14 22:14:34	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-14 22:14:34	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-14 22:14:33	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.642887, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.772675, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000029, "kappa_new": 0.821371, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.642887, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000036, "kappa_new": 0.899964, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.549995, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000031, "kappa_new": 0.843769, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.642887, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.642887, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000028, "kappa_new": 0.807672, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.642887, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.72218, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.72218, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.642887, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.642887, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000034, "kappa_new": 0.874966, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-14 22:14:31	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:245_027	view { "current_prob": 0.41948 } { "delta": -0.0659776407952708, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.354 blend=0.354 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3535023592047292, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-14 22:14:31	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_033	view { "current_prob": 0.70846 } { "delta": -0.05113303747652986, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.657 blend=0.657 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6573269625234701, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-14 22:14:31	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:COD_ROB_003	view { "current_prob": 0.40304 } { "delta": -0.08390248470854239, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.319 blend=0.319 LLR=-0.365 κ=0.90 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3191375152914576, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-13 22:12:38	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 115, "positions_examined": 34 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-13 22:12:38	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-13 22:12:37	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-13 22:12:37	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000033, "kappa_new": 0.899967, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.549996, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.642888, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.642888, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.722182, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.722182, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.642888, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.642888, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000031, "kappa_new": 0.874969, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.642888, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.772678, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000026, "kappa_new": 0.821374, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.642888, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000028, "kappa_new": 0.843772, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.642888, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.807675, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-13 22:12:36	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:INF_017	view { "current_prob": 0.51671 } { "delta": -0.037694273765743413, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.452 blend=0.479 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 w_in=0.43 energy_grid_rebuild_5y", "current_prob": 0.4790157262342566, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-12 22:09:47	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 98, "positions_examined": 24 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-12 22:09:47	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-12 22:09:47	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-12 22:09:46	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000029, "kappa_new": 0.899971, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.549996, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.642889, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.722184, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.642889, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.722184, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.642889, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.642889, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000028, "kappa_new": 0.874972, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.642889, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.77268, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000024, "kappa_new": 0.821376, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.642889, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.843775, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.642889, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.807677, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-12 22:09:45	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:246_030	view { "current_prob": 0.31889 } { "delta": -0.05960716670922844, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.259 blend=0.259 LLR=-0.291 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.25928283329077156, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-12 22:09:45	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_005	view { "current_prob": 0.56732 } { "delta": -0.06475903325558618, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.503 blend=0.503 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5025609667444139, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-11 22:11:37	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 69, "positions_examined": 15 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-11 22:11:36	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-11 22:11:36	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-11 22:11:35	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.874975, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.642891, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.772682, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000026, "kappa_new": 0.899974, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.549997, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000021, "kappa_new": 0.821379, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.642891, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.642891, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.843777, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.642891, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.722185, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.642891, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.722185, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.80768, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.642891, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.642891, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-10 22:10:57	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 54, "positions_examined": 10 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-10 22:10:56	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-10 22:10:54	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-10 22:10:53	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.687489, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.687489, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.899977, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.722187, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.642892, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.722187, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.807682, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.642892, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.687489, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.687489, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.642892, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.687489, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000021, "kappa_new": 0.874979, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.642892, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.772684, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.687489, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.549997, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.821382, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.642892, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.642892, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.84378, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.687489, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.642892, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.687489, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 6.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-10 22:10:52	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:230_046	view { "current_prob": 0.49522 } { "delta": -0.1820079978290759, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.313 blend=0.313 LLR=-0.766 κ=0.82 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3132120021709241, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-10 22:10:52	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:233_009	view { "current_prob": 0.37587 } { "delta": -0.03797083770148335, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.338 blend=0.338 LLR=-0.166 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.33789916229851663, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-10 22:10:52	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:237_018	view { "current_prob": 0.42275 } { "delta": -0.05711810224512681, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.366 blend=0.366 LLR=-0.239 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3656318977548732, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-10 22:10:52	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:237_029	view { "current_prob": 0.49522 } { "delta": -0.0702061657017315, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.425 blend=0.425 LLR=-0.283 κ=0.82 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4250138342982685, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-10 22:10:52	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CYB_005	view { "current_prob": 0.43967 } { "delta": -0.20952438731496842, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.408 blend=0.230 LLR=-0.132 κ=0.50 w_in=0.68 regulatory_freeze_window", "current_prob": 0.2301456126850316, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-10 22:10:52	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:INF_066	view { "current_prob": 0.53619 } { "delta": -0.017715894719911196, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.561 blend=0.518 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.69 w_in=0.30 energy_grid_rebuild_5y", "current_prob": 0.5184741052800889, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-10 22:10:52	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_030	view { "current_prob": 0.43348 } { "delta": -0.0489610611573999, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.385 blend=0.385 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3845189388426001, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-10 02:00:02	`lbp_run:e5c18d29fb42`	`lbp.completed`	lbp_run:e5c18d29fb42	view { "edge_count": 11986, "node_count": 1591 } { "residual": 0.005841, "converged": true, "top_moves": [ { "delta": 0.1853, "node_id": "INF_037" }, { "delta": -0.15231, "node_id": "COD_SPC_004" }, { "delta": -0.14901, "node_id": "CMQ_053" }, { "delta": -0.12227, "node_id": "CMQ_038" }, { "delta": -0.11519, "node_id": "246_016" }, { "delta": -0.11348, "node_id": "COD_SPC_005" }, { "delta": 0.11245, "node_id": "248_041" }, { "delta": -0.11195, "node_id": "246_017" }, { "delta": -0.10597, "node_id": "INF_043" }, { "delta": -0.10552, "node_id": "CMQ_040" } ], "iterations": 6, "applied_beliefs": true, "n_significant_moves": 937 }
2026-05-09 22:14:13	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 43, "positions_examined": 10 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-09 22:14:12	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-09 22:14:12	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-09 22:14:11	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.687491, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.687491, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.89998, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.722189, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.642893, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.722189, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.807685, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.642893, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.687491, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.772687, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.687491, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.549998, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.821384, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.642893, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.642893, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.843783, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.687491, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.687491, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.642893, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.687491, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.874982, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.642893, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.687491, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.642893, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 5.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-09 22:14:10	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:229_033	view { "current_prob": 0.45415 } { "delta": -0.06484314179275802, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.389 blend=0.389 LLR=-0.266 κ=0.77 w_in=1.00 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.389306858207242, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-09 22:14:10	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:232_052	view { "current_prob": 0.50735 } { "delta": -0.06186710442929394, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.445 blend=0.445 LLR=-0.248 κ=0.88 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.44548289557070603, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-09 22:14:10	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:235_015	view { "current_prob": 0.38686 } { "delta": -0.04741998031606903, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.339 blend=0.339 LLR=-0.205 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.33944001968393095, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-09 22:14:10	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:235_037	view { "current_prob": 0.38686 } { "delta": -0.04741998031606903, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.339 blend=0.339 LLR=-0.205 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.33944001968393095, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-09 22:14:10	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:235_043	view { "current_prob": 0.39095 } { "delta": -0.027546666006975362, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.363 blend=0.363 LLR=-0.117 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.36340333399302466, "n_milestones": 1 }