Audit Log
Immutable change log. Every probability update, intake apply, validation adjudication, and bulk operation writes a row here with structured before/after JSON. Use these records to reconstruct any historical state. ← Ops
Total entries
705
Filtered
23
page 1 / 1
Distinct actions
33
Distinct kinds
16
Filters
Action
Allauto_corroborate.rundoc_node_link.bulk_confirmdoc_node_link.confirmedges.isolated_high_conv_linkedges.phase2a_strength_gradingedges.scenario_correlate_backfilledges.weight_tune_v1intake.appliedkappa_decay_runlbp.completednode.bulk_resolution_fixnode.bulk_updatenode.metadata_milestone_missnode.milestone_missnodes.metadata.display_datenodes.metadata.milestonesnodes.metadata.milestones.phase2nodes.metadata.resolved_atprediction_conflicts.runprediction.recalibration_candidate.stagepredictions.december_dispersalpredictions.scenario_assignmentpredictions.tier3_reviewpredictors.brier_recomputerecommendations.bulk_importrecommendations.refresh.runreference_class_base_rate_refreshreference_class.overrideresearch_event_pack.applyresolution_history.backfillscenario.bulk_createsource_reliability.seedtrajectories.create_correlate_edges
Target kind
Actor (top 50)
Allapply_llm_milestonesapply_low_confidence_decisionsassign_predictions_to_scenariosbackfill_resolution_historybackfill_resolved_atbuild_scenario_pathscodexcompute_brier_scorescompute_display_datesderive_milestonesdisperse_december_bunchingfix_partial_classificationintake:515b84c4-6b29-4d57-8dd6-d41dac…intake:568095f6-eb44-4f96-92d3-13455b…intake:7afeeb9a-f217-4dd2-b910-24ff14…intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87…intake:c130222f-ab93-4d94-b596-5f4dc7…lbp_run:0c8a4ea3431elbp_run:1a683ac9e205lbp_run:1c6a06976c86lbp_run:592311ef6bcalbp_run:806b02f82f58lbp_run:807dd6f649b1lbp_run:ba893ab6499flbp_run:cd8605f31f33lbp_run:e5c18d29fb42lbp_run:e607fa961f0blbp_run:ffd25072aee9link_trajectories_to_dimensionsmanual_overridemetadata_milestone_sweepmilestone_miss_sweepphase_2A.2_graderphase_2A.3_isolated_linkerphase_2A_backfillphase2_part3_smoke_testphase3_p4_smoke_testphase3_p6_smoke_testseed_source_reliabilitystage_recalibration_candidatessystem:auto_corroboratesystem:decay_predictor_kappasystem:detect_prediction_conflictssystem:import_recommendationssystem:refresh_recommendationssystem:refresh_reference_class_base_r…tune_edge_weights
| When | Actor | Action | Target | Before → After |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 22:10:13 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
"summary": "R3 refresh start",
"examined": 19
}{
"rows": [],
"below": [
{
"n": 10,
"id": "mega_market_cap_5y"
},
{
"n": 15,
"id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "memory_supercycle_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y"
},
{
"n": 10,
"id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "single_stock_target_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "av_deployment_scale_2y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "political_crisis_2y"
},
{
"n": 5,
"id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
},
{
"n": 12,
"id": "fab_construction_3y"
},
{
"n": 3,
"id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
},
{
"n": 6,
"id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
},
{
"n": 18,
"id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
},
{
"n": 0,
"id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
}
],
"updated": 0,
"examined": 19,
"below_threshold": 17,
"min_n_threshold": 30
} |
| 2026-06-05 22:16:04 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
"summary": "R3 refresh start",
"examined": 19
}{
"rows": [],
"below": [
{
"n": 10,
"id": "mega_market_cap_5y"
},
{
"n": 15,
"id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "memory_supercycle_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y"
},
{
"n": 10,
"id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "single_stock_target_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "av_deployment_scale_2y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "political_crisis_2y"
},
{
"n": 5,
"id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
},
{
"n": 12,
"id": "fab_construction_3y"
},
{
"n": 3,
"id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
},
{
"n": 6,
"id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
},
{
"n": 18,
"id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
},
{
"n": 0,
"id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
}
],
"updated": 0,
"examined": 19,
"below_threshold": 17,
"min_n_threshold": 30
} |
| 2026-06-04 22:12:07 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
"summary": "R3 refresh start",
"examined": 19
}{
"rows": [],
"below": [
{
"n": 10,
"id": "mega_market_cap_5y"
},
{
"n": 15,
"id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "memory_supercycle_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y"
},
{
"n": 10,
"id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "single_stock_target_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "av_deployment_scale_2y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "political_crisis_2y"
},
{
"n": 5,
"id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
},
{
"n": 12,
"id": "fab_construction_3y"
},
{
"n": 3,
"id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
},
{
"n": 6,
"id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
},
{
"n": 18,
"id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
},
{
"n": 0,
"id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
}
],
"updated": 0,
"examined": 19,
"below_threshold": 17,
"min_n_threshold": 30
} |
| 2026-06-03 22:11:47 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
"summary": "R3 refresh start",
"examined": 19
}{
"rows": [],
"below": [
{
"n": 10,
"id": "mega_market_cap_5y"
},
{
"n": 15,
"id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "memory_supercycle_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y"
},
{
"n": 10,
"id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "single_stock_target_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "av_deployment_scale_2y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "political_crisis_2y"
},
{
"n": 5,
"id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
},
{
"n": 12,
"id": "fab_construction_3y"
},
{
"n": 3,
"id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
},
{
"n": 6,
"id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
},
{
"n": 18,
"id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
},
{
"n": 0,
"id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
}
],
"updated": 0,
"examined": 19,
"below_threshold": 17,
"min_n_threshold": 30
} |
| 2026-06-02 22:14:44 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
"summary": "R3 refresh start",
"examined": 19
}{
"rows": [],
"below": [
{
"n": 10,
"id": "mega_market_cap_5y"
},
{
"n": 15,
"id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "memory_supercycle_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y"
},
{
"n": 10,
"id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "single_stock_target_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "av_deployment_scale_2y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "political_crisis_2y"
},
{
"n": 5,
"id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
},
{
"n": 12,
"id": "fab_construction_3y"
},
{
"n": 3,
"id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
},
{
"n": 6,
"id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
},
{
"n": 18,
"id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
},
{
"n": 0,
"id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
}
],
"updated": 0,
"examined": 19,
"below_threshold": 17,
"min_n_threshold": 30
} |
| 2026-06-01 22:11:03 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
"summary": "R3 refresh start",
"examined": 19
}{
"rows": [],
"below": [
{
"n": 10,
"id": "mega_market_cap_5y"
},
{
"n": 15,
"id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "memory_supercycle_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y"
},
{
"n": 10,
"id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "single_stock_target_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "av_deployment_scale_2y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "political_crisis_2y"
},
{
"n": 5,
"id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
},
{
"n": 12,
"id": "fab_construction_3y"
},
{
"n": 3,
"id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
},
{
"n": 6,
"id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
},
{
"n": 18,
"id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
},
{
"n": 0,
"id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
}
],
"updated": 0,
"examined": 19,
"below_threshold": 17,
"min_n_threshold": 30
} |
| 2026-05-31 22:09:42 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
"summary": "R3 refresh start",
"examined": 19
}{
"rows": [],
"below": [
{
"n": 10,
"id": "mega_market_cap_5y"
},
{
"n": 15,
"id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "memory_supercycle_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y"
},
{
"n": 10,
"id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "single_stock_target_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "av_deployment_scale_2y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "political_crisis_2y"
},
{
"n": 5,
"id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
},
{
"n": 12,
"id": "fab_construction_3y"
},
{
"n": 3,
"id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
},
{
"n": 6,
"id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
},
{
"n": 18,
"id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
},
{
"n": 0,
"id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
}
],
"updated": 0,
"examined": 19,
"below_threshold": 17,
"min_n_threshold": 30
} |
| 2026-05-30 22:15:03 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
"summary": "R3 refresh start",
"examined": 19
}{
"rows": [],
"below": [
{
"n": 10,
"id": "mega_market_cap_5y"
},
{
"n": 15,
"id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "memory_supercycle_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y"
},
{
"n": 10,
"id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "single_stock_target_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "av_deployment_scale_2y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "political_crisis_2y"
},
{
"n": 5,
"id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
},
{
"n": 12,
"id": "fab_construction_3y"
},
{
"n": 3,
"id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
},
{
"n": 6,
"id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
},
{
"n": 18,
"id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
},
{
"n": 0,
"id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
}
],
"updated": 0,
"examined": 19,
"below_threshold": 17,
"min_n_threshold": 30
} |
| 2026-05-19 22:16:08 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
"summary": "R3 refresh start",
"examined": 10
}{
"rows": [],
"below": [
{
"n": 5,
"id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
},
{
"n": 12,
"id": "fab_construction_3y"
},
{
"n": 3,
"id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
},
{
"n": 6,
"id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
},
{
"n": 18,
"id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
},
{
"n": 0,
"id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
}
],
"updated": 0,
"examined": 10,
"below_threshold": 8,
"min_n_threshold": 30
} |
| 2026-05-18 22:13:12 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
"summary": "R3 refresh start",
"examined": 10
}{
"rows": [],
"below": [
{
"n": 5,
"id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
},
{
"n": 12,
"id": "fab_construction_3y"
},
{
"n": 3,
"id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
},
{
"n": 6,
"id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
},
{
"n": 18,
"id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
},
{
"n": 0,
"id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
}
],
"updated": 0,
"examined": 10,
"below_threshold": 8,
"min_n_threshold": 30
} |
| 2026-05-17 22:12:27 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
"summary": "R3 refresh start",
"examined": 10
}{
"rows": [],
"below": [
{
"n": 5,
"id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
},
{
"n": 12,
"id": "fab_construction_3y"
},
{
"n": 3,
"id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
},
{
"n": 6,
"id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
},
{
"n": 18,
"id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
},
{
"n": 0,
"id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
}
],
"updated": 0,
"examined": 10,
"below_threshold": 8,
"min_n_threshold": 30
} |
| 2026-05-16 22:11:18 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
"summary": "R3 refresh start",
"examined": 10
}{
"rows": [],
"below": [
{
"n": 5,
"id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
},
{
"n": 12,
"id": "fab_construction_3y"
},
{
"n": 3,
"id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
},
{
"n": 6,
"id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
},
{
"n": 18,
"id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
},
{
"n": 0,
"id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
}
],
"updated": 0,
"examined": 10,
"below_threshold": 8,
"min_n_threshold": 30
} |
| 2026-05-15 22:14:53 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
"summary": "R3 refresh start",
"examined": 10
}{
"rows": [],
"below": [
{
"n": 5,
"id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
},
{
"n": 12,
"id": "fab_construction_3y"
},
{
"n": 3,
"id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
},
{
"n": 6,
"id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
},
{
"n": 18,
"id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
},
{
"n": 0,
"id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
}
],
"updated": 0,
"examined": 10,
"below_threshold": 8,
"min_n_threshold": 30
} |
| 2026-05-14 22:14:34 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
"summary": "R3 refresh start",
"examined": 10
}{
"rows": [],
"below": [
{
"n": 5,
"id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
},
{
"n": 12,
"id": "fab_construction_3y"
},
{
"n": 3,
"id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
},
{
"n": 6,
"id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
},
{
"n": 18,
"id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
},
{
"n": 0,
"id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
}
],
"updated": 0,
"examined": 10,
"below_threshold": 8,
"min_n_threshold": 30
} |
| 2026-05-13 22:12:37 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
"summary": "R3 refresh start",
"examined": 10
}{
"rows": [],
"below": [
{
"n": 5,
"id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
},
{
"n": 12,
"id": "fab_construction_3y"
},
{
"n": 3,
"id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
},
{
"n": 6,
"id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
},
{
"n": 18,
"id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
},
{
"n": 0,
"id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
}
],
"updated": 0,
"examined": 10,
"below_threshold": 8,
"min_n_threshold": 30
} |
| 2026-05-12 22:09:47 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
"summary": "R3 refresh start",
"examined": 10
}{
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| 2026-05-11 22:11:36 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
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| 2026-05-10 22:10:54 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
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| 2026-05-09 22:14:12 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
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| 2026-05-08 22:15:36 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
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| 2026-05-07 22:13:02 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
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| 2026-05-06 22:13:12 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
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| 2026-05-05 22:11:01 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
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