Audit Log
Immutable change log. Every probability update, intake apply, validation adjudication, and bulk operation writes a row here with structured before/after JSON. Use these records to reconstruct any historical state. ← Ops
Total entries
705
Filtered
23
page 1 / 1
Distinct actions
33
Distinct kinds
16
Filters
Action
Allauto_corroborate.rundoc_node_link.bulk_confirmdoc_node_link.confirmedges.isolated_high_conv_linkedges.phase2a_strength_gradingedges.scenario_correlate_backfilledges.weight_tune_v1intake.appliedkappa_decay_runlbp.completednode.bulk_resolution_fixnode.bulk_updatenode.metadata_milestone_missnode.milestone_missnodes.metadata.display_datenodes.metadata.milestonesnodes.metadata.milestones.phase2nodes.metadata.resolved_atprediction_conflicts.runprediction.recalibration_candidate.stagepredictions.december_dispersalpredictions.scenario_assignmentpredictions.tier3_reviewpredictors.brier_recomputerecommendations.bulk_importrecommendations.refresh.runreference_class_base_rate_refreshreference_class.overrideresearch_event_pack.applyresolution_history.backfillscenario.bulk_createsource_reliability.seedtrajectories.create_correlate_edges
Target kind
Actor (top 50)
Allapply_llm_milestonesapply_low_confidence_decisionsassign_predictions_to_scenariosbackfill_resolution_historybackfill_resolved_atbuild_scenario_pathscodexcompute_brier_scorescompute_display_datesderive_milestonesdisperse_december_bunchingfix_partial_classificationintake:515b84c4-6b29-4d57-8dd6-d41dac…intake:568095f6-eb44-4f96-92d3-13455b…intake:7afeeb9a-f217-4dd2-b910-24ff14…intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87…intake:c130222f-ab93-4d94-b596-5f4dc7…lbp_run:0c8a4ea3431elbp_run:1a683ac9e205lbp_run:1c6a06976c86lbp_run:592311ef6bcalbp_run:806b02f82f58lbp_run:807dd6f649b1lbp_run:ba893ab6499flbp_run:cd8605f31f33lbp_run:e5c18d29fb42lbp_run:e607fa961f0blbp_run:ffd25072aee9link_trajectories_to_dimensionsmanual_overridemetadata_milestone_sweepmilestone_miss_sweepphase_2A.2_graderphase_2A.3_isolated_linkerphase_2A_backfillphase2_part3_smoke_testphase3_p4_smoke_testphase3_p6_smoke_testseed_source_reliabilitystage_recalibration_candidatessystem:auto_corroboratesystem:decay_predictor_kappasystem:detect_prediction_conflictssystem:import_recommendationssystem:refresh_recommendationssystem:refresh_reference_class_base_r…tune_edge_weights
| When | Actor | Action | Target | Before → After |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 22:10:12 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.633284,
"kappa_old": 0.6333,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.000043,
"kappa_new": 0.849857,
"kappa_old": 0.8499,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000046,
"kappa_new": 0.874954,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.642882,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.642882,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000042,
"kappa_new": 0.843758,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000027,
"kappa_new": 0.722173,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000027,
"kappa_new": 0.722173,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.642882,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000034,
"kappa_new": 0.772666,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.000038,
"kappa_new": 0.807662,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.642882,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.642882,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.00004,
"kappa_new": 0.82136,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-06-05 22:16:04 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.633285,
"kappa_old": 0.6333,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000043,
"kappa_new": 0.874957,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.00004,
"kappa_new": 0.84986,
"kappa_old": 0.8499,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.642884,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.642884,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000039,
"kappa_new": 0.843761,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000026,
"kappa_new": 0.722174,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000026,
"kappa_new": 0.722174,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.642884,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000031,
"kappa_new": 0.772669,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.000035,
"kappa_new": 0.807665,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.642884,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.642884,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.000037,
"kappa_new": 0.821363,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-06-04 22:12:07 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.68748,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.633286,
"kappa_old": 0.6333,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.00004,
"kappa_new": 0.87496,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.000037,
"kappa_new": 0.849863,
"kappa_old": 0.8499,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.642885,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000037,
"kappa_new": 0.843763,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.68748,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.642885,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.68748,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000024,
"kappa_new": 0.722176,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.68748,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000024,
"kappa_new": 0.722176,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.68748,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.68748,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.642885,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.68748,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000029,
"kappa_new": 0.772671,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.642885,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.68748,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.000033,
"kappa_new": 0.807667,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.642885,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.68748,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.000034,
"kappa_new": 0.821366,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.68748,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 12.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-06-03 22:11:46 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.687482,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000013,
"kappa_new": 0.633287,
"kappa_old": 0.6333,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.000034,
"kappa_new": 0.849866,
"kappa_old": 0.8499,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000037,
"kappa_new": 0.874963,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.642886,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000034,
"kappa_new": 0.843766,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.687482,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.642886,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.687482,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.722178,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.687482,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.722178,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.687482,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.687482,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.642886,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000027,
"kappa_new": 0.772673,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.687482,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.687482,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.00003,
"kappa_new": 0.80767,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.642886,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.642886,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.687482,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.000032,
"kappa_new": 0.821368,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.687482,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 11.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-06-02 22:14:43 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000017,
"kappa_new": 0.687483,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.633288,
"kappa_old": 0.6333,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.000032,
"kappa_new": 0.849868,
"kappa_old": 0.8499,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000034,
"kappa_new": 0.874966,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000013,
"kappa_new": 0.642887,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000017,
"kappa_new": 0.687483,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000031,
"kappa_new": 0.843769,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000017,
"kappa_new": 0.687483,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000013,
"kappa_new": 0.642887,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000017,
"kappa_new": 0.687483,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.72218,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.72218,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000017,
"kappa_new": 0.687483,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000017,
"kappa_new": 0.687483,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000013,
"kappa_new": 0.642887,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000025,
"kappa_new": 0.772675,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000017,
"kappa_new": 0.687483,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000017,
"kappa_new": 0.687483,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.000028,
"kappa_new": 0.807672,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000013,
"kappa_new": 0.642887,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000013,
"kappa_new": 0.642887,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000017,
"kappa_new": 0.687483,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.000029,
"kappa_new": 0.821371,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000017,
"kappa_new": 0.687483,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 10.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-06-01 22:11:02 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.687485,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.633289,
"kappa_old": 0.6333,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000028,
"kappa_new": 0.843772,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.000029,
"kappa_new": 0.849871,
"kappa_old": 0.8499,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000031,
"kappa_new": 0.874969,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.687485,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.642888,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.687485,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.687485,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.722182,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.722182,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.687485,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.687485,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.642888,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.687485,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.772678,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.000025,
"kappa_new": 0.807675,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.642888,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.687485,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.642888,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.687485,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.000026,
"kappa_new": 0.821374,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.642888,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.687485,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 9.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-05-31 22:09:42 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.687486,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.63329,
"kappa_old": 0.6333,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000028,
"kappa_new": 0.874972,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000025,
"kappa_new": 0.843775,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.000026,
"kappa_new": 0.849874,
"kappa_old": 0.8499,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.687486,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.687486,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.687486,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.722184,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.722184,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.687486,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.687486,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.642889,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.642889,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.687486,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.77268,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.642889,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.687486,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.807677,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.642889,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.687486,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.000024,
"kappa_new": 0.821376,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.642889,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.687486,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 8.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-05-30 22:15:03 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.687488,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.843777,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.849877,
"kappa_old": 0.8499,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.687488,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.687488,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.687488,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.722185,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.722185,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.687488,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.687488,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.642891,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.642891,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.687488,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.772682,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.642891,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.687488,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.80768,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.642891,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.687488,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.000021,
"kappa_new": 0.821379,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.633291,
"kappa_old": 0.6333,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000025,
"kappa_new": 0.874975,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.642891,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.687488,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 7.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-05-19 22:16:07 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000025,
"kappa_new": 0.687475,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.549993,
"kappa_old": 0.55,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.000053,
"kappa_new": 0.899947,
"kappa_old": 0.9,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000025,
"kappa_new": 0.687475,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.583289,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000019,
"kappa_new": 0.642881,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.583289,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.583289,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000019,
"kappa_new": 0.642881,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000029,
"kappa_new": 0.722171,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.583289,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000019,
"kappa_new": 0.642881,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000019,
"kappa_new": 0.642881,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.583289,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000029,
"kappa_new": 0.722171,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.583289,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000025,
"kappa_new": 0.687475,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000025,
"kappa_new": 0.687475,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000045,
"kappa_new": 0.843755,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000019,
"kappa_new": 0.642881,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000025,
"kappa_new": 0.687475,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000036,
"kappa_new": 0.772664,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.583289,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.583289,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000025,
"kappa_new": 0.687475,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000019,
"kappa_new": 0.642881,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.00004,
"kappa_new": 0.80766,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.000042,
"kappa_new": 0.821358,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000019,
"kappa_new": 0.642881,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000025,
"kappa_new": 0.687475,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.583289,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.583289,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.583289,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000049,
"kappa_new": 0.874951,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.583289,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.583289,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.583289,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 15.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000025,
"kappa_new": 0.687475,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 15.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-05-18 22:13:11 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.000049,
"kappa_new": 0.899951,
"kappa_old": 0.9,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.549994,
"kappa_old": 0.55,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.642882,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000027,
"kappa_new": 0.722173,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.642882,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.642882,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.642882,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000027,
"kappa_new": 0.722173,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000042,
"kappa_new": 0.843758,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.642882,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000034,
"kappa_new": 0.772666,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.642882,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.000038,
"kappa_new": 0.807662,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.00004,
"kappa_new": 0.82136,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.642882,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000046,
"kappa_new": 0.874954,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-05-17 22:12:27 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.000037,
"kappa_new": 0.821363,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.549994,
"kappa_old": 0.55,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.000046,
"kappa_new": 0.899954,
"kappa_old": 0.9,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.642884,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.642884,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000026,
"kappa_new": 0.722174,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.642884,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.642884,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000026,
"kappa_new": 0.722174,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000039,
"kappa_new": 0.843761,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.642884,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000031,
"kappa_new": 0.772669,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.642884,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.642884,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.000035,
"kappa_new": 0.807665,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000043,
"kappa_new": 0.874957,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-05-16 22:11:17 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.000034,
"kappa_new": 0.821366,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.549995,
"kappa_old": 0.55,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.000043,
"kappa_new": 0.899957,
"kappa_old": 0.9,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.68748,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.642885,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.642885,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000024,
"kappa_new": 0.722176,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.642885,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.642885,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000024,
"kappa_new": 0.722176,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000029,
"kappa_new": 0.772671,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.68748,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.68748,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.68748,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.642885,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000037,
"kappa_new": 0.843763,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.642885,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.000033,
"kappa_new": 0.807667,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.68748,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.68748,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.68748,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.642885,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.00004,
"kappa_new": 0.87496,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.583291,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 12.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.68748,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 12.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-05-15 22:14:52 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.000032,
"kappa_new": 0.821368,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.549995,
"kappa_old": 0.55,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.000039,
"kappa_new": 0.899961,
"kappa_old": 0.9,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.687482,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.642886,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.642886,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.722178,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.642886,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000027,
"kappa_new": 0.772673,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.687482,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.687482,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.642886,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000034,
"kappa_new": 0.843766,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.642886,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.642886,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.00003,
"kappa_new": 0.80767,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.687482,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.687482,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.722178,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.687482,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.642886,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.687482,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000037,
"kappa_new": 0.874963,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 11.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.687482,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 11.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-05-14 22:14:33 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000013,
"kappa_new": 0.642887,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000025,
"kappa_new": 0.772675,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000017,
"kappa_new": 0.687483,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.000029,
"kappa_new": 0.821371,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000017,
"kappa_new": 0.687483,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000013,
"kappa_new": 0.642887,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.000036,
"kappa_new": 0.899964,
"kappa_old": 0.9,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.549995,
"kappa_old": 0.55,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000017,
"kappa_new": 0.687483,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000031,
"kappa_new": 0.843769,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000013,
"kappa_new": 0.642887,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000013,
"kappa_new": 0.642887,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.000028,
"kappa_new": 0.807672,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000013,
"kappa_new": 0.642887,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.72218,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000017,
"kappa_new": 0.687483,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.72218,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000013,
"kappa_new": 0.642887,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000017,
"kappa_new": 0.687483,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000017,
"kappa_new": 0.687483,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000013,
"kappa_new": 0.642887,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000017,
"kappa_new": 0.687483,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000034,
"kappa_new": 0.874966,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.583292,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 10.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000017,
"kappa_new": 0.687483,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 10.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-05-13 22:12:37 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.000033,
"kappa_new": 0.899967,
"kappa_old": 0.9,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.000004,
"kappa_new": 0.549996,
"kappa_old": 0.55,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.687485,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.642888,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.642888,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.722182,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.722182,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.642888,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.687485,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.687485,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.642888,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.687485,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000031,
"kappa_new": 0.874969,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.642888,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.772678,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.687485,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.000026,
"kappa_new": 0.821374,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.687485,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.642888,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000028,
"kappa_new": 0.843772,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.687485,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.642888,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.583293,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.000025,
"kappa_new": 0.807675,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 9.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.687485,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 9.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-05-12 22:09:46 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.000029,
"kappa_new": 0.899971,
"kappa_old": 0.9,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.000004,
"kappa_new": 0.549996,
"kappa_old": 0.55,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.687486,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.642889,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.722184,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.642889,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.722184,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.642889,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.687486,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.687486,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.642889,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.687486,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000028,
"kappa_new": 0.874972,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.642889,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.77268,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.687486,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.000024,
"kappa_new": 0.821376,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.687486,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.642889,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000025,
"kappa_new": 0.843775,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.687486,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.642889,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.807677,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.687486,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.583294,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 8.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-05-11 22:11:35 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000025,
"kappa_new": 0.874975,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.642891,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.772682,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.687488,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.000026,
"kappa_new": 0.899974,
"kappa_old": 0.9,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.549997,
"kappa_old": 0.55,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.000021,
"kappa_new": 0.821379,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.687488,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.687488,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.642891,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.642891,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.843777,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.687488,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.642891,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.722185,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.642891,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.722185,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.80768,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.642891,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.687488,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.687488,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.642891,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.687488,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.687488,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 7.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-05-10 22:10:53 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.687489,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.687489,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.899977,
"kappa_old": 0.9,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000013,
"kappa_new": 0.722187,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.642892,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000013,
"kappa_new": 0.722187,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.807682,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.642892,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.687489,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.687489,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.642892,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.687489,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000021,
"kappa_new": 0.874979,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.642892,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.772684,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.687489,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.549997,
"kappa_old": 0.55,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.821382,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.642892,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.642892,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.84378,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.687489,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.642892,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.583295,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 6.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.687489,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 6.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-05-09 22:14:11 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.687491,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.687491,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.00002,
"kappa_new": 0.89998,
"kappa_old": 0.9,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.000004,
"kappa_new": 0.583296,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.722189,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.000004,
"kappa_new": 0.583296,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.642893,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.000004,
"kappa_new": 0.583296,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.722189,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.807685,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.642893,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.687491,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000013,
"kappa_new": 0.772687,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.687491,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.549998,
"kappa_old": 0.55,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.821384,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.642893,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.642893,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000017,
"kappa_new": 0.843783,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.687491,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.687491,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.642893,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.000004,
"kappa_new": 0.583296,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.000004,
"kappa_new": 0.583296,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.687491,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.000004,
"kappa_new": 0.583296,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.000004,
"kappa_new": 0.583296,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000004,
"kappa_new": 0.583296,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.000004,
"kappa_new": 0.583296,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.000004,
"kappa_new": 0.583296,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.000004,
"kappa_new": 0.583296,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.874982,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.000004,
"kappa_new": 0.583296,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.642893,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.687491,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.000004,
"kappa_new": 0.583296,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000004,
"kappa_new": 0.583296,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 5.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.642893,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 5.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-05-08 22:15:35 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.687492,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.772689,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.687492,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.000013,
"kappa_new": 0.821387,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.642894,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.642894,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000014,
"kappa_new": 0.843786,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.687492,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.687492,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.687492,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.899984,
"kappa_old": 0.9,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.642894,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.687492,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.642894,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.722191,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.722191,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.874985,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.000013,
"kappa_new": 0.807687,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.642894,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.687492,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.642894,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.549998,
"kappa_old": 0.55,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.687492,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 4.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.642894,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 4.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-05-07 22:13:02 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.687494,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.687494,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.000013,
"kappa_new": 0.899987,
"kappa_old": 0.9,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.642895,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.722193,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.722193,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.80769,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.549998,
"kappa_old": 0.55,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.687494,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.642895,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.687494,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.772691,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.687494,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.82139,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.642895,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.642895,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000011,
"kappa_new": 0.843789,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.687494,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.642895,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.687494,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000012,
"kappa_new": 0.874988,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.642895,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.687494,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.642895,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 3.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.583297,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 3.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-05-06 22:13:11 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.687495,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.687495,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.687495,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000007,
"kappa_new": 0.772693,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.89999,
"kappa_old": 0.9,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.687495,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.821392,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.642897,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.642897,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.843792,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.687495,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.642897,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.722195,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.642897,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.722195,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.000008,
"kappa_new": 0.807692,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.000001,
"kappa_new": 0.549999,
"kappa_old": 0.55,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.687495,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.687495,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000009,
"kappa_new": 0.874991,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.642897,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.642897,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.687495,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.642897,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 2.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.583298,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 2.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-05-05 22:11:00 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.687497,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.687497,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.687497,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000004,
"kappa_new": 0.772696,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.899994,
"kappa_old": 0.9,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.687497,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.821395,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.000001,
"kappa_new": 0.583299,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.642898,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.642898,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.843794,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.642898,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.000001,
"kappa_new": 0.583299,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000004,
"kappa_new": 0.722196,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.687497,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000004,
"kappa_new": 0.722196,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.000005,
"kappa_new": 0.807695,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.642898,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.000001,
"kappa_new": 0.583299,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.000001,
"kappa_new": 0.583299,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.687497,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.687497,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.000001,
"kappa_new": 0.583299,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.000001,
"kappa_new": 0.583299,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000001,
"kappa_new": 0.583299,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.000001,
"kappa_new": 0.583299,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.000001,
"kappa_new": 0.583299,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.000001,
"kappa_new": 0.583299,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.000001,
"kappa_new": 0.583299,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000006,
"kappa_new": 0.874994,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000001,
"kappa_new": 0.583299,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.642898,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.000001,
"kappa_new": 0.583299,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.642898,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000003,
"kappa_new": 0.687497,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000002,
"kappa_new": 0.642898,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 1.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.000001,
"kappa_new": 0.583299,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 1.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 37,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |