Event Tree

Forward-walk from a root through prereq, correlate, and killer edges, plotted on the same time × probability axes as the full DAG. Useful for tracing a single thesis chain forward without the noise of the rest of the network.

Pick a root

Scenarios + thesis killers + high-conviction predictions with ≥4 dependents
SS_AGI_MID_2029 · 118↓SS_AGI_FAST_2027 · 84↓SS_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS · 66↓SS_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 · 59↓SS_AGI_SLOW_2031 · 56↓SS_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS · 51↓SS_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 · 51↓SS_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 · 48↓SS_GRID_50GW_2027 · 45↓SS_COMPUTE_100GW_2030 · 40↓SS_HUMANOID_MASS_2033 · 39↓SS_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026 · 38↓SS_IPO_TRILLION_2026 · 37↓SS_MARS_2028 · 33↓SS_IPO_TRILLION_2027 · 30↓SS_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 · 28↓
Depth123456

Root: S_MARS_2028 · Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) · depth=5 · 44 of 44 nodes plotted · 90 edges

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 2026Jan 2027Jul 2027Jan 2028Jul 2028Jan 2029Jul 2029Jan 2030Jul 2030Jan 2031Jul 2031Jan 2032Jul 2032Jan 2033Jul 2033Jan 2034Jul 2034Jan 2035Jul 2035Jan 2036Jul 2036Jan 2037Jul 2037Jan 2038Jul 2038Jan 2039Jul 2039Jan 2040Jul 2040Jan 2041Jul 2041Jan 2042Jul 2042Jan 2043Jul 2043Jan 2044Jul 2044Jan 2045Jul 2045Jan 2046Jul 2046todaytarget window endcurrent probability
42 plotted · 80 edges · 2 outside x-range · click any node for detail

Legend

Same axes + encoding as /graph/dag
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