0 50 100 S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 · prior 25% · avg shift ±3.0pp · First $1T+ IPO in 2026 0 50 100 S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 · prior 40% · avg shift ±2.4pp · First $1T+ IPO in 2027 0 50 100 S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 · prior 25% · avg shift ±2.4pp · First $1T+ IPO in 2028 0 50 100 S_IPO_TRILLION_NONE_5Y · prior 10% · No $1T+ IPO through 2031 history 230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis ✓ 238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now ✓ 240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months ✓ AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake ✓ 238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) ✓ CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20 ✓ AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o ✓ 240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 ✓ FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna ✓ AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en ✓ 242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission ✓ 244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years ✓ 241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation ✓ 229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne ✓ IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct ✓ SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S ✓ SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil ✓ SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on ✓ 232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti ✓ 241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom ✓ AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓ 234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 ✓ 242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license ✓ 233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra ✓ CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val ✓ 246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers). ✓ 238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) ✓ 247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston ✓ AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using ✓ IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do ✓ AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓ CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la ✓ AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c ✓ CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba ✓ 247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial ✓ 235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). ✓ 245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE ✓ CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o ✓ 246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. ✓ FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain- ✓ ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin ✓ ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU ✓ INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva ✓ INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula ✓ SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f ✓ SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. ✓ INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n ✓ 229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. ✓ 248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. ✓ 248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. ✓ ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence- ✓ CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to ✓ 235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. ✓ SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc ✓ SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f ✓ 237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca ✓ 238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days ✓ 232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. ✓ 241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long ✓ 245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed ✓ SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme ✓ 248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. ✓ SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200 ✓ 229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. ✓ CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re ✓ CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi ✓ CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr ✓ SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate ✓ INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup ✓ INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor ✓ SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. ✓ SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying ✓ SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓ SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu ✓ SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual ✓ 231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. ✗ 231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. ✗ 235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. ✗ 244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years ◐ 239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world ◐ INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol ◐ 232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani ◐ 236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours ◐ SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad ◐ AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey ◐ 238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi ◐ 231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. ◐ CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐ 246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. ◐ AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree ◐ 246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). ◐ 247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently ◐ 245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus ◐ INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn ◐ INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat ◐ 246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. ◐ INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob ◐ SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se ◐ ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar ◐ INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await ◐ SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr ◐ INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive ◐ SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐ SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na ◐ SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u ◐ SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast ◐ SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10 ◐ SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci ◐ CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go ◐ INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — ◐ INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight ◐ INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive ◐ SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a ◐ Jan 2026 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2027 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2028 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2029 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2030 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2031 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2032 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2033 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2034 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2035 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2036 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2037 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2038 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2039 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2040 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2041 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2042 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2043 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2044 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2045 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2046 Feb Mar Apr May Jun today pre #6 · hit · 2025-01-21 — OpenAI announces $500B Stargate Project (5x stated $100B spend) pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-15 — OpenAI raises $122B Series funding round at ~$852B valuation pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — OpenAI confidential S-1 filing with SEC cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI annualized revenue crosses $30B run-rate cascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-07 — OpenAI IPO pricing/listing at >=$1T valuation cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-23 — SpaceX public S-1 / prospectus filing on SEC EDGAR pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-11 — SpaceX IPO roadshow begins with retail investor event pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Cascade: SpaceX completes IPO and lists on NYSE/NASDAQ cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — OpenAI IPO target window slips beyond Nov 2026 per CFO statement cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Anthropic files confidential or public S-1 with SEC cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-23 — SpaceX public S-1 / prospectus filing on SEC EDGAR pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-11 — SpaceX IPO roadshow begins with retail investor event pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Cascade: SpaceX completes IPO and lists on NYSE/NASDAQ cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — OpenAI IPO target window slips beyond Nov 2026 per CFO statement cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Anthropic files confidential or public S-1 with SEC cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-23 — SpaceX public S-1 / prospectus filing on SEC EDGAR pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-11 — SpaceX IPO roadshow begins with retail investor event pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Cascade: SpaceX completes IPO and lists on NYSE/NASDAQ cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — OpenAI IPO target window slips beyond Nov 2026 per CFO statement cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Anthropic files confidential or public S-1 with SEC cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Compute supply (Broadcom TPUs + AWS Trainium + Nvidia GPUs) for Anthropic exceeds 5GW dedicated pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2027 pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #3 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Anthropic crosses $500B annualized revenue run rate pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Anthropic IPO or pre-IPO disclosure of audited annual revenue >=$200B pre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Anthropic surpasses $1T annual revenue (definitive event) cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI files confidential S-1 with SEC for IPO listing cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Last private secondary or tender at >=$700B post-money valuation cascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — OpenAI announces lead underwriters for IPO cascade #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenAI annualized revenue crosses $30B run-rate cascade #5 · pending · 2026-12-30 — OpenAI prices IPO at >=$1T fully diluted valuation cascade #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: OpenAI listing triggers wave of AI lab IPO filings (Anthropic, xAI, Mistral) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI files confidential S-1 with SEC for IPO listing cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Last private secondary or tender at >=$700B post-money valuation cascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — OpenAI announces lead underwriters for IPO cascade #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenAI annualized revenue crosses $30B run-rate cascade #5 · pending · 2026-12-30 — OpenAI prices IPO at >=$1T fully diluted valuation cascade #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: OpenAI listing triggers wave of AI lab IPO filings (Anthropic, xAI, Mistral) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — OpenAI lists at >=$60B raise / ~$1T valuation pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-15 — First-day pop documented pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — S-1 lock-up period scheduled (typical 180 days) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-28 — First post-IPO earnings release cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-01 — 6-month post-IPO close vs. offer price (pop measurement window closes) cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — OpenAI lists at >=$60B raise / ~$1T valuation pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-15 — First-day pop documented pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — S-1 lock-up period scheduled (typical 180 days) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-28 — First post-IPO earnings release cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-01 — 6-month post-IPO close vs. offer price (pop measurement window closes) cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — OpenAI lists at >=$60B raise / ~$1T valuation pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-15 — First-day pop documented pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — S-1 lock-up period scheduled (typical 180 days) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-28 — First post-IPO earnings release cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-01 — 6-month post-IPO close vs. offer price (pop measurement window closes) cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Musk publicly affirms $100T SpaceX possibility pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — First trillionaire — Musk net worth crosses $1T pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Multi-trillionaire (>=2 individuals at $1T) — cascade cascade #2 · pending · 2035-07-02 — First $100T market cap company — full prediction realization pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Musk publicly affirms $100T SpaceX possibility pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — First trillionaire — Musk net worth crosses $1T pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Multi-trillionaire (>=2 individuals at $1T) — cascade cascade #2 · pending · 2035-07-02 — First $100T market cap company — full prediction realization pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI, xAI, Google ship production-scale agentic-research products comparable to Claude Code pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Frontier-model market-share converges: no single lab >40% of enterprise AI spend cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: Lab leadership rotates again — Anthropic regains undisputed lead, or fourth lab emerges pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Anthropic releases additional vertical-workflow plugin (healthcare / accounting / consulting) pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Sector-specific software stock drawdown >10% intraday on plugin-launch day cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic ARR or revenue disclosure shows plugin-driven enterprise acceleration cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-22 — Legal-tech incumbent announces M&A or AI-pivot to defend market share cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Antitrust or congressional inquiry opens into bundled-LLM market disruption cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. pre #1 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superint cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic crosses $50B annualized revenue run rate pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Amazon AWS reaches $200B annualized revenue run rate pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — NVIDIA full-year revenue exceeds $300B with growth slowing pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Anthropic crosses $100B ARR or surpasses OpenAI on revenue cascade #1 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Amazon publishes guidance crossing $1T annual revenue run rate cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: AI-services revenue concentration triggers antitrust review cascade #3 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Nvidia Rubin Ultra (2nm) tape-out and ramp confirmed at TSMC pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — TSMC N2 (2nm) wafer-capacity ramp constrains Nvidia supply cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Nvidia data-center revenue doubles from FY2026 baseline cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Post-Rubin-Ultra Feynman roadmap node confirmed (1.6nm or backside power) cascade #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Nvidia stock multiple compresses post-Rubin Ultra ramp despite growth cascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic crosses $1T valuation in primary or active secondary market pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI completes funding or IPO at >=$1T valuation pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — xAI / SpaceX combined entity valued >=$1T via SpaceX IPO pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Google DeepMind / Alphabet AI segment crosses $1T attributable value cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Fifth lab (Meta SuperIntelligence Labs OR Microsoft AI division) reaches $1T attributable value cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026 pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-16 — SpaceX IPO completes at >$1.5T valuation pre #4 · pending · 2028-04-16 — Musk becomes first publicly disclosed trillionaire pre #3 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Combined SpaceX-xAI-Tesla market value crosses $5T pre #2 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Optimus generates >$10B annual revenue pre #1 · pending · 2033-07-02 — First company in history reaches $10T market cap cascade #1 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #2 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026 pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-16 — SpaceX IPO completes at >$1.5T valuation pre #4 · pending · 2028-04-16 — Musk becomes first publicly disclosed trillionaire pre #3 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Combined SpaceX-xAI-Tesla market value crosses $5T pre #2 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Optimus generates >$10B annual revenue pre #1 · pending · 2033-07-02 — First company in history reaches $10T market cap cascade #1 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #2 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-20 — Anthropic and Amazon disclose new strategic agreement (>$5B incremental investment) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-23 — Anthropic board approves $50B-class private fundraising round at near-trillion valuation cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Cascade: Microsoft-OpenAI relationship publicly strained / repriced post-Anthropic-Amazon deal cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Anthropic confidentially or publicly files S-1 with SEC cascade #3 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Anthropic prices IPO and begins public trading cascade #4 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Cascade: Anthropic IPO valuation at first-day close exceeds $1T cascade #5 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-20 — Anthropic and Amazon disclose new strategic agreement (>$5B incremental investment) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-23 — Anthropic board approves $50B-class private fundraising round at near-trillion valuation cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Cascade: Microsoft-OpenAI relationship publicly strained / repriced post-Anthropic-Amazon deal cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Anthropic confidentially or publicly files S-1 with SEC cascade #3 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Anthropic prices IPO and begins public trading cascade #4 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Cascade: Anthropic IPO valuation at first-day close exceeds $1T cascade #5 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · partial · 2026-04-30 — First single company to cross $5T market cap pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla / xAI / SpaceX combined enterprise value crosses $5T pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — SpaceX completes IPO and provides public market-cap anchor cascade #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Optimus / robotaxi commercial revenue ramp validates AI/robotics premium cascade #2 · pending · 2027-04-16 — First single company crosses $10T market cap pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First major sell-side report explicitly modeling AI-driven valuation compression for S&P 500 pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI labor-displacement evidence: BLS reports white-collar employment falls YoY pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Chamath / Sacks publishes follow-up confirming or revising 2-7x compression call pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Mass-incumbent earnings pre-announcement: 3+ S&P 500 companies cut multi-year guidance citing AI competition pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — S&P 500 forward P/E falls below 18x for >6 months cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Cascade: 2x compression actually realized — S&P 500 forward P/E falls to ~11x cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-28 — Activist letters explicitly cite AI labor reduction as value-creation thesis pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Mega-cap multiple compression accelerates (cascade) pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Russell 2000 P/E multiple compresses below 16x while EPS expands pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Russell 2000 small/mid-cap aggregate FCF growth >50% YoY pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — High-labor-share small caps (consulting, staffing, BPO) show triple-digit FCF growth cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · partial · 2026-03-31 — Activist hedge fund publicly uses LLM-generated open letter to public company pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — AI-native activist fund or platform launches pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — SEC clarifies AI-generated 13D / 14a-8 letter authorship requirements cascade #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Hedge-fund cost-structure inverts as AI replaces analyst teams cascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Boards routinely receive AI-drafted shareholder communications volume >10x baseline cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-01 — China-US capital markets friction eases (CSRC-SEC PCAOB cooperation continues) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Uber announces material partial monetization of its DiDi stake pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Uber reports DiDi mark-to-market gain >$2B in single quarter pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — DiDi relists on a major exchange (Hong Kong or US re-listing) pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Uber declares special dividend or buyback funded by DiDi proceeds cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Colossal announces first viable mammoth embryo pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Colossal raises follow-on round at >=$15B valuation (50% step-up) pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First Colossal commercial spinout (Form Bio, Breaking) reaches >=$5B cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Colossal IPO filing OR direct-listing announcement at >=$20B cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-17 — Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX files confidential S-1 with SEC at $2T target valuation pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-26 — SpaceX 2025 revenue confirms $15.6B baseline pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-18 — SpaceX S-1 prospectus made public pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-11 — SpaceX IPO roadshow begins week of June 8, 2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-24 — SpaceX prices IPO and begins trading cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. cascade #3 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #6 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX files confidential S-1 with SEC at $2T target valuation pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-26 — SpaceX 2025 revenue confirms $15.6B baseline pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-18 — SpaceX S-1 prospectus made public pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-11 — SpaceX IPO roadshow begins week of June 8, 2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-24 — SpaceX prices IPO and begins trading cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. cascade #3 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #6 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Anthropic files S-1 with SEC cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — OpenAI files S-1 with SEC cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic IPO completes listing cascade #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — OpenAI IPO completes listing cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-01 — AI-IPO retail-demand absorption affecting subsequent listings cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Either OpenAI or Anthropic crosses $1T public-market valuation pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Anthropic files S-1 with SEC cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — OpenAI files S-1 with SEC cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic IPO completes listing cascade #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — OpenAI IPO completes listing cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-01 — AI-IPO retail-demand absorption affecting subsequent listings cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Either OpenAI or Anthropic crosses $1T public-market valuation pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Anthropic files S-1 with SEC cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — OpenAI files S-1 with SEC cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic IPO completes listing cascade #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — OpenAI IPO completes listing cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-01 — AI-IPO retail-demand absorption affecting subsequent listings cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Either OpenAI or Anthropic crosses $1T public-market valuation pre #6 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Anthropic closes $50B / ~$900B-valuation funding round pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI confidential S-1 filing with SEC pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI selects lead underwriters for IPO pre #2 · pending · 2026-10-08 — OpenAI S-1 publicly available; roadshow begins pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-15 — OpenAI begins NYSE/Nasdaq trading by end-2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Anthropic confidential S-1 filing cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Anthropic closes $50B / ~$900B-valuation funding round pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI confidential S-1 filing with SEC pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI selects lead underwriters for IPO pre #2 · pending · 2026-10-08 — OpenAI S-1 publicly available; roadshow begins pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-15 — OpenAI begins NYSE/Nasdaq trading by end-2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Anthropic confidential S-1 filing cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX confidentially files S-1 for IPO including xAI pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-05-16 — Combined entity loss of $5B reported, raising IPO execution risk pre #2 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — SpaceX-xAI combined IPO targets $1.75T-$2T valuation in summer 2026 listing pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX confidentially files S-1 for IPO including xAI pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-05-16 — Combined entity loss of $5B reported, raising IPO execution risk pre #2 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — SpaceX-xAI combined IPO targets $1.75T-$2T valuation in summer 2026 listing pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-27 — Musk v. Altman / OpenAI trial begins in federal court pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Trial verdict, settlement, or dismissal announced cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Settlement terms or judgment include Musk-related equity provision in OpenAI Group PBC cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — OpenAI files S-1 with SEC for trillion-dollar IPO cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Cascade: OpenAI completes IPO with Musk listed as cap-table party cascade #5 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Cascade: AI sector M&A or governance precedent established re: nonprofit-to-PBC conversions cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Trump-era endowment-tax pressure on Harvard escalates to credible existential threat pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-31 — Endowment performance benchmark: Harvard endowment underperforms S&P 500 by >5% for two consecutive years pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Activist investor or alumni group publicly demands corporate restructuring of major US university pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major US private university opens formal feasibility study on for-profit / PBC restructuring pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Investment bank or law firm publishes formal valuation analysis of Harvard or peer university as a PBC cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: University-as-PBC framework gains state-level legal recognition cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Claude Code annualized revenue exceeds $2.5B pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Anthropic ARR crosses $30B and surpasses OpenAI pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic ARR reaches $100B (interim milestone toward $1T) pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Anthropic ARR reaches $1T by EOY 2027 (target) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: Anthropic IPO or tender offer at $1T+ valuation pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic weighs $50B round at >=$900B valuation pre #1 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Anthropic board approves the >=$900B round cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Anthropic revenue crosses OpenAI revenue (annualized run-rate) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic IPO filing or S-1 disclosed cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic weighs $50B round at >=$900B valuation pre #1 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Anthropic board approves the >=$900B round cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Anthropic revenue crosses OpenAI revenue (annualized run-rate) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic IPO filing or S-1 disclosed cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026 pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Starlink 2026 revenue exceeds $20B pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Starship V3 / orbital refueling demonstrated (2/3 valuation pillar) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2027 target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift 43 plotted across 4 branches · 2 outside x-range · click any dot for detail
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.