Timeline Fan

4 of 4 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Forked into 3 mutually-exclusive ASI branches — each lane shows the claims that hinge on that scenario.

Filters

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Off (single timeline)$1T+ IPO AGI AI pause ASI Mars uncrewed Recession Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)

Tradeable only

Yes (≥1 ticker, default)No (all predictions)

Window

next 12 mo next 24 mo next 5 yr (default)5y + tail

Resolved

Hide (default — live forecasts only)Include Resolved only

Top predictors

All Alex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)

0 plotted across 3 branches · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to MUMSF.

MUMSF-impacting (3)

INF_015

APLD · COHR · CORZ · CRWV

Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) and Water Usage Effectiveness (WUE) will transition from secondary facility metrics to the top operational KPIs for DC operators — mandating liquid-to-chip and two-phase immersion cooling as default hardware.

90% → 77% · resolves 2028-10

-13pp

INF_035

APLD · COHR · CORZ · CRWV

Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo...

75% → 65% · resolves 2028-12

-10pp

SPC_018

AMZN · APLD · ASTS · BA

Five North America-linked miners — MP Materials, Almonty Industries, Freeport-McMoRan, Alcoa, Teck Resources — are critical dependencies for the emerging space hardware supply chain: copper (regenerative cooling channels, Raptor/BE-4 pressure scaling),...

75% → 65% · resolves 2030-05

-10pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)

AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum

Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.