0 50 100 S_ASI_FAST_2031 · prior 10% · avg shift ±6.6pp · ASI fast: RSI within 5y of AGI 0 50 100 S_ASI_MID_2034 · prior 30% · avg shift ±3.5pp · ASI mid: Schmidt 'ASI in 6 years' 0 50 100 S_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS · prior 60% · avg shift ±3.0pp · ASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoff history 230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis ✓ 238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now ✓ 240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months ✓ AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake ✓ 238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) ✓ CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20 ✓ AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o ✓ 240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 ✓ FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna ✓ AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en ✓ 242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission ✓ 244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years ✓ 241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation ✓ 229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne ✓ IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct ✓ SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S ✓ SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil ✓ SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on ✓ 232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti ✓ 241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom ✓ AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓ 234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 ✓ 242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license ✓ 233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra ✓ CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val ✓ 246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers). ✓ 238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) ✓ 247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston ✓ AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using ✓ IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do ✓ AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓ CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la ✓ AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c ✓ CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba ✓ 247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial ✓ 235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). ✓ 245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE ✓ CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o ✓ 246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. ✓ FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain- ✓ ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin ✓ ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU ✓ INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva ✓ INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula ✓ SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f ✓ SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. ✓ INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n ✓ 229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. ✓ 248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. ✓ 248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. ✓ ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence- ✓ CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to ✓ 235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. ✓ SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc ✓ SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f ✓ 237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca ✓ 238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days ✓ 232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. ✓ 241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long ✓ 245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed ✓ SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme ✓ 248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. ✓ SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200 ✓ 229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. ✓ CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re ✓ CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi ✓ CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr ✓ SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate ✓ INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup ✓ INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor ✓ SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. ✓ SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying ✓ SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓ SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu ✓ SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual ✓ 231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. ✗ 231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. ✗ 235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. ✗ 244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years ◐ 239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world ◐ INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol ◐ 232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani ◐ 236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours ◐ SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad ◐ AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey ◐ 238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi ◐ 231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. ◐ CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐ 246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. ◐ AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree ◐ 246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). ◐ 247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently ◐ 245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus ◐ INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn ◐ INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat ◐ 246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. ◐ INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob ◐ SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se ◐ ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar ◐ INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await ◐ SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr ◐ INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive ◐ SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐ SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na ◐ SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u ◐ SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast ◐ SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10 ◐ SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci ◐ CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go ◐ INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — ◐ INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight ◐ INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive ◐ SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a ◐ Jan 2026 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2027 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2028 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2029 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2030 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2031 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2032 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2033 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2034 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2035 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2036 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2037 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2038 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2039 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2040 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2041 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2042 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2043 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2044 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2045 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2046 Feb Mar Apr May Jun today pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Median enterprise reports planning-cycle compression from quarterly to monthly pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First Fortune-500 firm publicly adopts continuous-strategy operating model pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Agentic AI shifts decision cycles from days to minutes at flagship deployment cascade #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Course-correction in minutes becomes industry-standard at AI-native firms cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Physics-based AI simulations operational at military-grade fidelity (WarMatrix) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-15 — AI co-author on peer-reviewed physics paper resolving prior open problem pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-02 — World-model AI demonstrates novel physical-system prediction at SOTA cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-28 — Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control. pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-18 — By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS or McKinsey reports US manufacturing labor share continues secular decline through 2026 pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-13 — By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First production deployment of robot-built-robot manufacturing line by Figure or Tesla pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Public AI lab discloses first frontier model trained primarily by AI-generated data and AI-driven curriculum cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-28 — Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control. pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-18 — By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS or McKinsey reports US manufacturing labor share continues secular decline through 2026 pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-13 — By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First production deployment of robot-built-robot manufacturing line by Figure or Tesla pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Public AI lab discloses first frontier model trained primarily by AI-generated data and AI-driven curriculum cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Frontier model achieves >=50% on a credible multi-domain 'do everything' agent benchmark (METR HCAST, GAIA hard, OSWorld pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI agent autonomously completes a multi-week real-world commercial project end-to-end without human intervention beyond pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Enterprise AI agent production deployment crosses 50% of large enterprises (Fortune 1000) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Anthropic, OpenAI, or DeepMind publicly declares 'AGI achieved' or equivalent capability milestone pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Anthropic revenue run-rate exceeds $50B annualized (consistent with $1T-by-2030 trajectory) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — BLS or Treasury attributes a measurable fraction (>0.5pp) of unemployment to AI displacement in official report cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Hassabis on Lex Fridman Podcast: 50% probability of AGI by 2030 with 1-2 missing breakthroughs pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First public demonstration of continual-learning AI agent solving novel cross-domain tasks (Hassabis gap #1) pre #4 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Scenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path pre #3 · pending · 2031-03-10 — AGI declared by major frontier lab (DeepMind, OpenAI, or Anthropic) per Hassabis high-bar definition pre #2 · pending · 2031-11-30 — Scenario fires: AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path pre #1 · pending · 2032-07-01 — First sustained 5%+ annual US productivity growth (industrial-revolution-scale macro signal) cascade #1 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #2 · pending · 2038-12-31 — Decade post-AGI: Cumulative GDP impact of 10x prior industrial revolution baseline reached pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Hassabis on Lex Fridman Podcast: 50% probability of AGI by 2030 with 1-2 missing breakthroughs pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First public demonstration of continual-learning AI agent solving novel cross-domain tasks (Hassabis gap #1) pre #4 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Scenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path pre #3 · pending · 2031-03-10 — AGI declared by major frontier lab (DeepMind, OpenAI, or Anthropic) per Hassabis high-bar definition pre #2 · pending · 2031-11-30 — Scenario fires: AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path pre #1 · pending · 2032-07-01 — First sustained 5%+ annual US productivity growth (industrial-revolution-scale macro signal) cascade #1 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #2 · pending · 2038-12-31 — Decade post-AGI: Cumulative GDP impact of 10x prior industrial revolution baseline reached pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Major enterprise software vendors (Salesforce Agentforce, Microsoft Copilot, ServiceNow AI Agents, Google Gemini Enterpr pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Gartner/IDC enterprise AI agent adoption surveys show 60%+ of large firms running agentic workflows in production with h pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — G2 / industry data shows median 40%+ cost-per-unit reduction and 80%+ containment rate sustained across multiple vertica pre #2 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Labor market data shows decline in 'process operator' / clerical / coordinator roles >=15% YoY in agentic-AI-heavy verti pre #1 · pending · 2031-07-02 — Regulatory frameworks (EU AI Act Article 14 oversight requirements, US state laws) shift from 'human-in-the-loop require cascade #1 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #2 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-15 — Recursive Superintelligence startup funding signal pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Cascade: AI capability gains compress to <60-day cycles cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-02 — EU AI Act audit-trail compliance deadline (Aug 2026) drives mandatory continuous-monitoring deployments pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First Big Four firm offers AI-driven continuous-audit / real-time assurance product for public companies pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Stablecoin / tokenized-asset proof-of-reserves becomes regulated standard in major jurisdiction pre #2 · pending · 2030-07-02 — PCAOB or IAASB issues formal standard for AI-assisted continuous auditing of public-company financials pre #1 · pending · 2033-07-02 — First S&P 500 company replaces annual audit with PCAOB-recognized continuous-audit attestation cascade #1 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #2 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Federal tax-exempt status reform debate forces universities to consider for-profit conversion pre #3 · pending · 2028-12-14 — First public benefit corporation conversion of a top-25 US research university (precondition) pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — First academic spinout structured as PBC reaches >$10B valuation (validates IPO-ready model) pre #1 · pending · 2031-01-29 — S-1 filing or pre-IPO restructuring for Harvard, MIT, or peer institution announced cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · pending · 2028-07-01 — EU Commission lowers compute threshold for systemic-risk GPAI from 10^25 toward 10^24 pre #5 · pending · 2028-08-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — First major nation imposes compute or capability cap on frontier AI training pre #3 · pending · 2030-12-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2033-04-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2035-07-02 — International compute-cap treaty (analogous to nuclear non-proliferation) signed by >=3 of US/EU/UK/China pre #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Academic research output on SLMs surpasses LLM-scaling output pre #5 · pending · 2028-09-15 — On-device SLMs reach 100% smartphone shipment penetration pre #4 · pending · 2028-11-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2029-03-31 — SLM enterprise adoption crosses LLM API spend (industry inflection) pre #2 · pending · 2031-05-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2033-12-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Stargate Abilene flagship reaches ~1 GW operational capacity by mid-2026 pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Hyperscaler announces single-site data center campus exceeding 5 GW pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-31 — First federal AI-grid coordination policy or grid-emergency order issued pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — US AI data center power demand reaches ~30 GW incremental by end of 2027 pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump ad cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-26 — Aggregate US data center load passes 100 GW by 2029 cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First state-level UBI program scaled to ≥1M recipients (intermediate step before federal) pre #4 · pending · 2029-01-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Federal UBI enacted (precondition for UHI per Yang's framework) pre #2 · pending · 2030-05-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2030-11-08 — UHI legislation supersedes UBI as AI-driven job displacement crosses 30M US workers pre #6 · pending · 2030-12-31 — MaaS (Mobility-as-a-Service) market hits USD 40B by 2030 trajectory, with ride-hail + AV-as-a-service exceeding personal pre #5 · pending · 2031-05-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2031-07-02 — Robotaxi / AV ride-hail (Waymo, Tesla, Zoox, Baidu, Pony) achieves cost-per-mile <=USD 0.50 unlocking subscription econo pre #3 · pending · 2032-07-01 — OEMs (Volvo Care, Porsche Drive, Audi Select, BMW Access, Hyundai/Genesis, Toyota Kinto) report subscription revenue exc pre #2 · pending · 2033-12-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2034-07-02 — US new-vehicle ownership penetration drops materially (registrations per capita, household vehicle count); Gen Z/millenn pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — OpenAI PBC restructuring fully completes, sets template pre #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — First major US research university announces formal exploration of PBC conversion pre #2 · pending · 2031-07-02 — Federal legislation introduced to permit nonprofit-to-PBC for educational institutions pre #1 · pending · 2032-01-01 — First small or mid-tier US university successfully converts to PBC cascade #1 · pending · 2036-05-16 — First Harvard/MIT/Stanford-tier school formally votes on PBC conversion cascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #3 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major US university announces equity-sharing incubator program with faculty co-ownership pre #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — StartX Stanford Research Park 'The Link' anchor opens (2027) pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Top-10 US university launches dedicated venture fund >=$500M to invest directly in faculty/student startups pre #2 · pending · 2032-12-31 — University-affiliated incubators surpass YC by aggregate annual cohort size pre #1 · pending · 2035-07-02 — Faculty equity from incubated startups exceeds tenured salary as primary compensation channel at top-5 US universities cascade #1 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #2 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #3 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First Tier-1 US university launches in-house venture studio with equity stakes pre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Foreign-student enrollment drops force >=2 R1 universities into formal restructuring pre #3 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Documented closure or merger of >=20 four-year US colleges in single year pre #2 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Accreditor explicitly approves venture-studio degree program as primary credential pre #1 · pending · 2031-07-02 — First university derives >25% of revenue from venture-portfolio returns cascade #1 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #2 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #3 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — April 2026 sets record month for frontier AI model releases pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Software-engineering task length AI can complete doubles every 5 months pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Claude 5 ('Fennec') ground-up architecture release pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Scenario fires: Major-country AI pause beginning 2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Top AI researcher compensation packages exceed $50M annual at >=2 frontier labs pre #5 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Algorithmic-efficiency benchmark (training FLOPs per capability unit) improves >=10x year-over-year at a frontier lab pre #4 · pending · 2028-08-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Pure-scale lab (large-train, no major algorithm innovation) loses frontier-model leaderboard position pre #2 · pending · 2030-12-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2033-04-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Manus-Meta agent capability launches on Telegram (initial deployment after WhatsApp delays) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Meta deploys Manus-powered agent layer in WhatsApp Business for autonomous transaction handling cascade #1 · pending · 2031-07-29 — WhatsApp agent layer operates autonomously on behalf of advertisers (full event realization) cascade #2 · pending · 2031-09-16 — First $1B+ advertiser-side annual spend handled autonomously by AI agents in messaging app cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Reciprocal agent reputation/trust system standardized industry-wide pre #5 · pending · 2028-10-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2029-09-15 — No single AI provider exceeds 50% of agent-traffic share pre #3 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Antitrust action targets agent-coordination practices (positive evidence non-singleton) pre #2 · pending · 2031-04-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2033-10-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Sam Altman / OpenAI publicly proposes Universal Basic Compute (UBC) policy framework pre #4 · pending · 2028-12-31 — First national or sub-national AI compute / dividend pilot enacted pre #3 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Tax-and-distribute proposal targeting AI/compute economic rents reaches active legislative debate pre #2 · pending · 2032-12-31 — First G7 country implements national AI dividend or UBC at scale pre #1 · pending · 2036-01-01 — OECD-wide AI-displacement-driven income support reaches 100M+ recipients cascade #1 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #3 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-27 — ICLR 2026 Workshop on AI with Recursive Self-Improvement convened in Rio (community legitimization) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-15 — AlphaEvolve-class system autonomously discovers novel SOTA algorithm in published paper pre #2 · pending · 2026-10-16 — OpenAI ships intern-level AI research agent (publicly demonstrated or deployed) pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier lab "effective workforce" disclosure shows >10x ratio of AI agents to human researchers cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Anthropic / OpenAI public claim of "fully automated AI research" pipeline cascade #3 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superint cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Musk publicly affirms hard takeoff thesis at Abundance Summit 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Frontier-lab leader publicly endorses recursive self-improvement timeline by mid-2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Per-week breakthrough cadence visible in independent metrics cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First publicly disclosed AI system that materially designs its successor model architecture cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Hard-takeoff thesis enters mainstream macro discourse cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence. cascade #5 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. cascade #6 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Washington State Evergreen Basic Income Pilot final report (Dec 2026) recommends ongoing program pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal Guaranteed Income Pilot Program Act of 2025 (H.R.5830) reaches committee markup or floor vote pre #4 · pending · 2028-12-31 — AI-driven unemployment crosses 6% national rate, formally cited by BLS or Treasury as driver pre #3 · pending · 2029-12-31 — At least one US state enacts a permanent (non-pilot) guaranteed-income / UBI statute funded statewide pre #2 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Florida/Illinois-style UBI prohibition spread reverses; pre-emption laws repealed in any state pre #1 · pending · 2031-12-31 — Federal stimulus / direct-payment program triggered specifically by AI-displacement framing (not pandemic, not recession cascade #1 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #2 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier model demonstrates sustained pro-social behavior in red-team evaluations pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Wisdom benchmark (e.g., wise-action selection at moral dilemmas) introduced and adopted pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-05 — Multi-lab alignment compact: top 5 labs publish joint statement on values-aligned AGI pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: First clinical study showing AI mental-health agent improves wellbeing vs human therapists cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Cascade: Major religious or philosophical institution publicly endorses 'AI as moral peer' pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026 pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-16 — SpaceX IPO completes at >$1.5T valuation pre #4 · pending · 2028-04-16 — Musk becomes first publicly disclosed trillionaire pre #3 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Combined SpaceX-xAI-Tesla market value crosses $5T pre #2 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Optimus generates >$10B annual revenue pre #1 · pending · 2033-07-02 — First company in history reaches $10T market cap cascade #1 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #2 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Terafab Austin chip facility breaks ground / construction underway pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — AI5 begins production at TSMC Arizona / Samsung Texas pre #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Terafab first wafer-out milestone pre #2 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Tesla fully decouples chip supply from Taiwan-based fabrication pre #1 · pending · 2034-07-02 — US semiconductor self-sufficiency ratio for advanced nodes (<=3nm) >=50% cascade #1 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #3 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Major automation cuts in private-sector white-collar roles announced (legal, finance, consulting, support) precede any e pre #3 · pending · 2029-07-02 — Public-sector union activity (AFGE, NEA, AFT, state employee unions) successfully blocks or substantially limits AI disp pre #2 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Federal/state government workforce shows persistent agentic AI adoption gap vs private sector (>=24 months lag in any be pre #1 · pending · 2031-12-31 — University faculty headcount remains stable or grows even as enterprise white-collar roles in equivalent skill bands con cascade #1 · pending · 2037-12-31 — Aggregate timeline: by terminal date, government and university employment shows the smallest cumulative AI-driven decli cascade #2 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2029-01-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2029-07-01 — ARC-AGI-2 / Frontier Math Tier 4 / Humanity's Last Exam achieves >=80% benchmark passage by frontier model pre #4 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Supreme Court accepts certiorari on a successor case to Thaler v. Perlmutter (overturning the March 2026 denial) pre #3 · pending · 2031-07-02 — First international IP treaty renegotiation explicitly addresses AI-generated works (WIPO or successor) pre #2 · pending · 2031-09-29 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2034-06-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · partial · 2026-04-15 — Frontier labs report diminishing returns from naive parameter scaling pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Frontier capabilities continue to track 4-7 month doubling on long-horizon tasks cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AGI/superintelligence-class system released within Schmidt's prediction window cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-25 — ICLR 2026 RSI workshop convenes with peer-reviewed methods papers pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-15 — Recursive Superintelligence public launch (raised $500M) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Multiple competing RSI methods published with no clear winner cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Frontier lab consensus paper on RSI approach published cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · pending · 2028-07-01 — AI system independently produces a peer-reviewed scientific discovery accepted to a top-tier venue without human co-auth pre #5 · pending · 2028-09-29 — Compute scaling crosses 10^28 FLOPs for a single training run pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-30 — Sovereign-scale compute moat established (>=5GW dedicated AI training cluster operational) pre #3 · pending · 2029-12-31 — AI-driven recursive self-improvement loop demonstrates measurable capability gain per iteration pre #2 · pending · 2031-12-31 — Scenario fires: ASI fast: RSI within 5y of AGI pre #1 · pending · 2032-01-01 — Public discourse and government commission declares ASI achieved or imminent cascade #1 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-24 — Mass driver on the moon within 10 years cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. pre #6 · pending · 2028-07-01 — AI system independently produces a peer-reviewed scientific discovery accepted to a top-tier venue without human co-auth pre #5 · pending · 2028-09-29 — Compute scaling crosses 10^28 FLOPs for a single training run pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-30 — Sovereign-scale compute moat established (>=5GW dedicated AI training cluster operational) pre #3 · pending · 2029-12-31 — AI-driven recursive self-improvement loop demonstrates measurable capability gain per iteration pre #2 · pending · 2031-12-31 — Scenario fires: ASI fast: RSI within 5y of AGI pre #1 · pending · 2032-01-01 — Public discourse and government commission declares ASI achieved or imminent cascade #1 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-24 — Mass driver on the moon within 10 years cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — SpaceX 'orbital data center' constellation FCC application reaches public comment milestone cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Starcloud or Sophia Space deploys >=10 H100/H200-class GPUs in commercial orbital cluster cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cumulative VC funding to space-based AI infrastructure startups crosses $2B cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #5 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First space-based AI inference SLA offered to enterprise customers cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. pre #6 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Global robotaxi fleet exceeds 100,000 vehicles pre #5 · pending · 2029-09-30 — Commercial robotaxi cost per mile drops below private-car ownership cost pre #4 · pending · 2029-12-31 — First top-10 auto OEM cuts new-model production volume by >=10% citing AV substitution pre #3 · pending · 2031-05-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2032-07-01 — US new car sales fall below 12M units (from ~16M baseline) in single year pre #1 · pending · 2033-11-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Formula 1 and NASCAR sustain or grow combined annual viewership and revenue (proves human-driver motorsport remains comm pre #5 · pending · 2031-06-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Motorsports market grows from USD 6.93B (2026) toward analyst-projected USD 9-10B+ by 2030s pre #3 · pending · 2033-07-01 — Cultural persistence indicators: at least one new high-profile human-driver racing series (e.g., new IndyCar/Le Mans/For pre #2 · pending · 2033-12-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2034-07-02 — Autonomous racing series (Roborace successor, A2RL Abu Dhabi, Indy Autonomous Challenge) remain niche/exhibition with no pre #6 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Second African nation re-permits gene-drive Anopheles trial pre #5 · pending · 2028-09-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2029-07-01 — First gene-drive eradication targeting an invasive species achieves measurable population suppression pre #3 · pending · 2030-07-02 — WHO/CBD adopts standardized gene-drive containment protocol distinguishing native vs invasive pre #2 · pending · 2031-01-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2033-06-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Pet cloning order volumes grow or hold steady (validating 'profitable, ongoing' claim); waitlist remains 5-7 months or l pre #4 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Colossal Biosciences (post Viagen acquisition Nov 2025) maintains pet cloning as continuing operational subsidiary with pre #3 · pending · 2031-07-02 — Competitor entry into commercial pet cloning (e.g., Sinogene Biotechnology US/EU expansion, new entrants) signals market pre #2 · pending · 2033-08-30 — Celebrity / high-profile cloning cases (post-Streisand, post-Tom Brady) continue periodically through window, sustaining pre #1 · pending · 2034-07-02 — Cloning unit cost falls (success rate gains, scaled SCNT) bringing entry-level pricing under USD 25K, expanding addressa cascade #1 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #2 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #3 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First viable northern-white-rhino embryo transfer pregnancy maintained past 90 days in southern white rhino surrogate pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-19 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Functional oocytes from northern-white-rhino induced pluripotent stem cells produced (synthetic genetic diversity proof) pre #3 · pending · 2028-12-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2029-06-15 — First northern white rhino calf born from BioRescue embryo + southern white rhino surrogate pre #1 · pending · 2030-03-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2031-07-18 — Synthetic-genetic-diversity engineering applied to NWR — first calf born with iPSC-derived gametes pre #6 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Anthropic closes $50B / ~$900B-valuation funding round pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI confidential S-1 filing with SEC pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI selects lead underwriters for IPO pre #2 · pending · 2026-10-08 — OpenAI S-1 publicly available; roadshow begins pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-15 — OpenAI begins NYSE/Nasdaq trading by end-2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Anthropic confidential S-1 filing cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Documented AI-enabled cyber attack on critical infrastructure (power grid, water, transportation, finance) with autonomo pre #5 · pending · 2028-11-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Cascade: insurance market repricing (cyber insurance premiums, exclusions for AI-enabled attacks) signals industry valid pre #3 · pending · 2030-12-31 — Frontier AI model demonstrates partial cryptanalysis capability (preimage / collision attacks against weakened or reduce pre #2 · pending · 2031-06-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2033-12-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2028-03-31 — OpenAI 'true automated AI researcher' target (March 2028) pre #5 · pending · 2028-08-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2030-11-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2031-12-31 — Scenario fires: ASI fast: RSI within 5y of AGI pre #2 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Major lab declares an internal model has achieved superintelligence threshold pre #1 · pending · 2033-03-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2028-03-31 — OpenAI 'true automated AI researcher' target (March 2028) pre #5 · pending · 2028-08-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2030-11-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2031-12-31 — Scenario fires: ASI fast: RSI within 5y of AGI pre #2 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Major lab declares an internal model has achieved superintelligence threshold pre #1 · pending · 2033-03-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2028-03-31 — OpenAI 'true automated AI researcher' target (March 2028) pre #5 · pending · 2028-08-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2030-11-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2031-12-31 — Scenario fires: ASI fast: RSI within 5y of AGI pre #2 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Major lab declares an internal model has achieved superintelligence threshold pre #1 · pending · 2033-03-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-05-01 — OpenAI restricts GPT-5.5-Cyber to vetted critical-defender partners only pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Anthropic gates Claude Mythos behind security-vetted access tier pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — 3 or more frontier labs gate top-tier models behind enterprise / vetted-only access pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Public benchmark / paper claims ASI-equivalent capability on a defined task suite cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Frontier AI capability index doubles vs Q1 2026 pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-15 — Multi-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier models. pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-24 — AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-19 — Uncertain whether people will have any purpose at all a year from today. pre #1 · pending · 2028-06-16 — BCI throughput remains <1% of frontier-AI inference rate by 2028 cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Public model produces independent novel research result accepted at top-tier venue pre #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Major AI lab announces internal recursive self-improvement loop in production pre #4 · pending · 2028-06-22 — AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence. pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Scenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — GDPval-equivalent saturation: leading model >=95% expert-tie-or-win across full benchmark cascade #1 · pending · 2031-11-01 — If superintelligence emerges: international AI compute monitoring treaty signed pre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Anthropic ARR exceeds $30B annualized run-rate pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier model achieves expert-level performance on broad professional certification benchmark pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI fully automates >=80% of typical software-engineering tasks at Fortune 500 cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #2 · pending · 2030-11-04 — Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global production cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Anthropic ARR exceeds $30B annualized run-rate pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier model achieves expert-level performance on broad professional certification benchmark pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI fully automates >=80% of typical software-engineering tasks at Fortune 500 cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #2 · pending · 2030-11-04 — Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global production cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Anthropic ARR exceeds $30B annualized run-rate pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier model achieves expert-level performance on broad professional certification benchmark pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI fully automates >=80% of typical software-engineering tasks at Fortune 500 cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #2 · pending · 2030-11-04 — Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global production cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-13 — Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months. pre #5 · pending · 2027-11-12 — Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two. pre #4 · pending · 2028-06-04 — Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-24 — AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-21 — Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years. pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Scenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift 54 plotted across 3 branches · 2 outside x-range · click any dot for detail
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.