Timeline Fan

269 of 269 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Forked into 4 mutually-exclusive AGI branches — each lane shows the claims that hinge on that scenario.

Filters

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Off (single timeline)$1T+ IPO AGI AI pause ASI Mars uncrewed Recession Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)

Tradeable only

Yes (≥1 ticker, default)No (all predictions)

Window

next 12 mo next 24 mo next 5 yr (default)5y + tail

Resolved

Hide (default — live forecasts only)Include Resolved only

Top predictors

All Alex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)

64 plotted across 4 branches · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to PLAB.

PLAB-impacting (4)

247_023

AAPL · ACN · ALAB · AMT

AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently

72% → 41% · resolves 2027-06

-31pp

242_031

AAPL · ACN · ALAB · AMT

Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years

65% → 36% · resolves 2031-11

-29pp

242_023

AAPL · ACN · ALAB · AMT

World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036

60% → 34% · resolves 2036-12

-26pp

232_057

AAPL · ACN · ALAB · AMT

First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.

60% → 35% · resolves 2031-06

-25pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)

AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum

Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.