0 50 100 S_AGI_FAST_2027 · prior 30% · avg shift ±4.1pp · AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 0 50 100 S_AGI_MID_2029 · prior 35% · avg shift ±2.8pp · AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path 0 50 100 S_AGI_SLOW_2031 · prior 25% · avg shift ±4.9pp · AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path 0 50 100 S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS · prior 10% · avg shift ±4.4pp · AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter history 230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis ✓ 238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now ✓ 240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months ✓ AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake ✓ 238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) ✓ CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20 ✓ AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o ✓ 240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 ✓ FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna ✓ AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en ✓ 242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission ✓ 244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years ✓ 241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation ✓ 229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne ✓ IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct ✓ SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S ✓ SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil ✓ SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on ✓ 232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti ✓ 241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom ✓ AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓ 234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 ✓ 242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license ✓ 233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra ✓ CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val ✓ 246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers). ✓ 238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) ✓ 247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston ✓ AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using ✓ IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do ✓ AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓ CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la ✓ AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c ✓ CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba ✓ 247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial ✓ 235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). ✓ 245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE ✓ CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o ✓ 246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. ✓ FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain- ✓ ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin ✓ ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU ✓ INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva ✓ INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula ✓ SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f ✓ SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. ✓ INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n ✓ 229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. ✓ 248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. ✓ 248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. ✓ ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence- ✓ CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to ✓ 235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. ✓ SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc ✓ SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f ✓ 237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca ✓ 238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days ✓ 232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. ✓ 241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long ✓ 245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed ✓ SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme ✓ 248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. ✓ SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200 ✓ 229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. ✓ CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re ✓ CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi ✓ CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr ✓ SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate ✓ INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup ✓ INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor ✓ SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. ✓ SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying ✓ SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓ SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu ✓ SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual ✓ 231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. ✗ 231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. ✗ 235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. ✗ 244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years ◐ 239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world ◐ INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol ◐ 232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani ◐ 236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours ◐ SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad ◐ AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey ◐ 238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi ◐ 231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. ◐ CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐ 246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. ◐ AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree ◐ 246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). ◐ 247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently ◐ 245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus ◐ INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn ◐ INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat ◐ 246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. ◐ INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob ◐ SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se ◐ ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar ◐ INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await ◐ SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr ◐ INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive ◐ SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐ SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na ◐ SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u ◐ SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast ◐ SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10 ◐ SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci ◐ CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go ◐ INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — ◐ INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight ◐ INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive ◐ SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a ◐ Jan 2026 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2027 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2028 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2029 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2030 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2031 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2032 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2033 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2034 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2035 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2036 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2037 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2038 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2039 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2040 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2041 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2042 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2043 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2044 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2045 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2046 Feb Mar Apr May Jun today pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Figure 02 sustained autonomous operation milestone (≥ 4-5 hr continuous neural-net runtime in unstructured tasks) pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Figure 03 (next-gen platform) public unveil or technical preview cascade #1 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Figure demonstrates multi-task generalization in an unseen home environment for ≥ 1 day cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Figure home pilot expansion announcement ("tens of units" deployed to non-employee households) cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Foresight Institute Feynman Prize annual cycle issues new entry guidelines or prize bump pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Zyvex, Foresight, or DNA-nanotech lab announces credible 'within 2 years' timeline for Grand Prize attempt pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Peer-reviewed paper demonstrates positionally-controlled atomically-precise mechanosynthesis pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Functional nanoscale 8-bit adder demonstrated in published work cascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Feynman Grand Prize claim filed with Foresight Institute cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — ChatGPT daily commerce queries surpass 50M pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Walmart and Target integrate into agent-ready commerce protocols pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Competing protocol war emerges: ACP vs AP2 vs MPP vs x402 pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Agent-mediated transactions reach >=10% of US e-commerce GMV cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — ChatGPT daily commerce queries surpass 50M pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Walmart and Target integrate into agent-ready commerce protocols pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Competing protocol war emerges: ACP vs AP2 vs MPP vs x402 pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Agent-mediated transactions reach >=10% of US e-commerce GMV cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — ChatGPT daily commerce queries surpass 50M pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Walmart and Target integrate into agent-ready commerce protocols pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Competing protocol war emerges: ACP vs AP2 vs MPP vs x402 pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Agent-mediated transactions reach >=10% of US e-commerce GMV cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — ChatGPT daily commerce queries surpass 50M pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Walmart and Target integrate into agent-ready commerce protocols pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Competing protocol war emerges: ACP vs AP2 vs MPP vs x402 pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Agent-mediated transactions reach >=10% of US e-commerce GMV cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2025-02-03 — Hyperscaler announces voluntary capability moratorium or red-line pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Open-source startup releases capability hyperscaler refused to ship pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Chinese / non-US lab releases model with capability US labs withheld pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal/state enforcement action against startup for unsafe AI deployment cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2025-02-03 — Hyperscaler announces voluntary capability moratorium or red-line pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Open-source startup releases capability hyperscaler refused to ship pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Chinese / non-US lab releases model with capability US labs withheld pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal/state enforcement action against startup for unsafe AI deployment cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2025-02-03 — Hyperscaler announces voluntary capability moratorium or red-line pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Open-source startup releases capability hyperscaler refused to ship pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Chinese / non-US lab releases model with capability US labs withheld pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal/state enforcement action against startup for unsafe AI deployment cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2025-02-03 — Hyperscaler announces voluntary capability moratorium or red-line pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Open-source startup releases capability hyperscaler refused to ship pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Chinese / non-US lab releases model with capability US labs withheld pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal/state enforcement action against startup for unsafe AI deployment cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-26 — By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically usefu pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Alpha School scales 'Time Back' AI tutor platform to additional schools pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Liemandt's $1B commitment funds sub-$1,000 device deployment to scale pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Mainstream LLM lab releases closed-loop RL tutoring product pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Closed-loop AI tutor matches/exceeds human instructor on rigorous benchmarks cascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superint cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-26 — By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically usefu pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Alpha School scales 'Time Back' AI tutor platform to additional schools pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Liemandt's $1B commitment funds sub-$1,000 device deployment to scale pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Mainstream LLM lab releases closed-loop RL tutoring product pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Closed-loop AI tutor matches/exceeds human instructor on rigorous benchmarks cascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superint cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-26 — By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically usefu pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Alpha School scales 'Time Back' AI tutor platform to additional schools pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Liemandt's $1B commitment funds sub-$1,000 device deployment to scale pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Mainstream LLM lab releases closed-loop RL tutoring product pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Closed-loop AI tutor matches/exceeds human instructor on rigorous benchmarks cascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superint cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-26 — By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically usefu pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Alpha School scales 'Time Back' AI tutor platform to additional schools pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Liemandt's $1B commitment funds sub-$1,000 device deployment to scale pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Mainstream LLM lab releases closed-loop RL tutoring product pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Closed-loop AI tutor matches/exceeds human instructor on rigorous benchmarks cascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superint cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Mistral ARR crosses $1B annual run-rate pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-11 — Mistral launches consumer/enterprise vertically-integrated stack (model + cloud + apps) pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: Mistral valued >=€30B in next funding round, Europe's first AI decacorn at OpenAI scale pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Hassabis on Lex Fridman Podcast: 50% probability of AGI by 2030 with 1-2 missing breakthroughs pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First public demonstration of continual-learning AI agent solving novel cross-domain tasks (Hassabis gap #1) pre #4 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Scenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path pre #3 · pending · 2031-03-10 — AGI declared by major frontier lab (DeepMind, OpenAI, or Anthropic) per Hassabis high-bar definition pre #2 · pending · 2031-11-30 — Scenario fires: AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path pre #1 · pending · 2032-07-01 — First sustained 5%+ annual US productivity growth (industrial-revolution-scale macro signal) cascade #1 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #2 · pending · 2038-12-31 — Decade post-AGI: Cumulative GDP impact of 10x prior industrial revolution baseline reached pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Hassabis on Lex Fridman Podcast: 50% probability of AGI by 2030 with 1-2 missing breakthroughs pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First public demonstration of continual-learning AI agent solving novel cross-domain tasks (Hassabis gap #1) pre #4 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Scenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path pre #3 · pending · 2031-03-10 — AGI declared by major frontier lab (DeepMind, OpenAI, or Anthropic) per Hassabis high-bar definition pre #2 · pending · 2031-11-30 — Scenario fires: AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path pre #1 · pending · 2032-07-01 — First sustained 5%+ annual US productivity growth (industrial-revolution-scale macro signal) cascade #1 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #2 · pending · 2038-12-31 — Decade post-AGI: Cumulative GDP impact of 10x prior industrial revolution baseline reached pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-17 — Kevin Weil departs OpenAI — original 100-Nobels champion exits, OpenAI for Science decentralized pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI for Science 'Prism' general availability or successor product launch pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First peer-reviewed Nobel-class result published with explicit AI co-attribution pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-30 — Nobel ceremony explicitly cites AI partnership in award rationale pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Pure-play AI vendor (Cohere/Mistral/Perplexity) revenue stays <$35B aggregate 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Enterprise AI revenue exceeds consumer AI revenue 3:1 across hyperscalers pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI capex-to-revenue ratio compresses or hyperscaler stock multiple resets pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-30 — PwC ChatGPT Enterprise reseller volume scales as Big-4 AI revenue line pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Big-4 + MBB collective AI investment crosses $15B cumulative pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — OpenAI consulting division pressures Big-4 advisory pricing pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Accenture AI Refinery client count crosses 5,000 enterprises cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Big-4 advisory revenue grows >=20% YoY driven by AI transformation contracts cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-15 — Big Four publicly disclose AI agent doing audit work (workpaper generation / variance analysis) pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cumulative Big Four audit-tech headcount reduction >=50% from 2024 baseline pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — PCAOB or SEC publishes guidance on AI-assisted audit reliance cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Crosby and ≥3 'agentic AI law firms' in Lupl 'AI Law Firms to Watch' establish recurring contract-review revenue pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Major newsroom or wire service deploys autonomous AI agents producing >25% of published bylines pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Major bank or asset manager deploys autonomous AI agents executing trades >$100M/day pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-11 — Anthropic Opus 4.6+ discloses 500+ zero-days in OSS libraries cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — OSSF/CNCF publishes formal AI-SLOP best practices for OSS maintainers cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Open source vulnerabilities exceed 1,000 per codebase average cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major OSS project (Linux kernel/OpenSSL/Python) declares maintainer crisis cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-11 — Anthropic Opus 4.6+ discloses 500+ zero-days in OSS libraries cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — OSSF/CNCF publishes formal AI-SLOP best practices for OSS maintainers cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Open source vulnerabilities exceed 1,000 per codebase average cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major OSS project (Linux kernel/OpenSSL/Python) declares maintainer crisis cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-11 — Anthropic Opus 4.6+ discloses 500+ zero-days in OSS libraries cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — OSSF/CNCF publishes formal AI-SLOP best practices for OSS maintainers cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Open source vulnerabilities exceed 1,000 per codebase average cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major OSS project (Linux kernel/OpenSSL/Python) declares maintainer crisis cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-11 — Anthropic Opus 4.6+ discloses 500+ zero-days in OSS libraries cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — OSSF/CNCF publishes formal AI-SLOP best practices for OSS maintainers cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Open source vulnerabilities exceed 1,000 per codebase average cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major OSS project (Linux kernel/OpenSSL/Python) declares maintainer crisis cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Compute supply (Broadcom TPUs + AWS Trainium + Nvidia GPUs) for Anthropic exceeds 5GW dedicated pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2027 pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #3 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Anthropic crosses $500B annualized revenue run rate pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Anthropic IPO or pre-IPO disclosure of audited annual revenue >=$200B pre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Anthropic surpasses $1T annual revenue (definitive event) cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Compute supply (Broadcom TPUs + AWS Trainium + Nvidia GPUs) for Anthropic exceeds 5GW dedicated pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2027 pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #3 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Anthropic crosses $500B annualized revenue run rate pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Anthropic IPO or pre-IPO disclosure of audited annual revenue >=$200B pre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Anthropic surpasses $1T annual revenue (definitive event) cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Compute supply (Broadcom TPUs + AWS Trainium + Nvidia GPUs) for Anthropic exceeds 5GW dedicated pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2027 pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #3 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Anthropic crosses $500B annualized revenue run rate pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Anthropic IPO or pre-IPO disclosure of audited annual revenue >=$200B pre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Anthropic surpasses $1T annual revenue (definitive event) cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Compute supply (Broadcom TPUs + AWS Trainium + Nvidia GPUs) for Anthropic exceeds 5GW dedicated pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2027 pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #3 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Anthropic crosses $500B annualized revenue run rate pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Anthropic IPO or pre-IPO disclosure of audited annual revenue >=$200B pre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Anthropic surpasses $1T annual revenue (definitive event) cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — GPT-5.5 ships as new leading AI model pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 ships at 1 trillion parameters pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier labs shift narrative away from raw parameters toward reasoning compute cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — 100x raw parameter growth claim verified or refuted via 2026 disclosures cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — GPT-5.5 ships as new leading AI model pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 ships at 1 trillion parameters pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier labs shift narrative away from raw parameters toward reasoning compute cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — 100x raw parameter growth claim verified or refuted via 2026 disclosures cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Colorado AI Act (SB 24-205) takes effect imposing duty of care on high-risk AI systems pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — 5+ states pass binding AI workforce/employment laws by year-end 2026 pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — AI Workforce PREPARE Act (S.3339) advances out of Senate committee pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Congress passes a comprehensive federal AI law in 2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI-related crisis or major harm event triggers reactive emergency legislation cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Stargate Abilene flagship reaches ~1 GW operational capacity by mid-2026 pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Hyperscaler announces single-site data center campus exceeding 5 GW pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-31 — First federal AI-grid coordination policy or grid-emergency order issued pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — US AI data center power demand reaches ~30 GW incremental by end of 2027 pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump ad cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-26 — Aggregate US data center load passes 100 GW by 2029 cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2028-12-31 — AI-designed aging-reversal compound enters human trial pre #5 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Scenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path pre #4 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Annual healthy-LE gain crosses 0.5 year per calendar year pre #3 · pending · 2030-07-02 — First demonstrated whole-organ regeneration in human trial pre #2 · pending · 2031-05-17 — Biological-age reversal demonstrated in healthy-cohort RCT pre #1 · pending · 2033-05-16 — Healthy life-expectancy reaches 1.0 year per calendar year (LEV operational) cascade #1 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-24 — Mass driver on the moon within 10 years cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-07 — Digital AI Omnibus deferral negotiation outcome pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-02 — EU AI Act high-risk obligations enter into application August 2, 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — G7 / G20 publish coordinated AI governance framework cascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Chinese-origin frontier model achieves frontier capability (Gemini 3 / GPT-5.5 parity) cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — US executive order or Congress passes federal AI governance baseline cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Giving Pledge attrition continues — second AI-era billionaire publicly exits pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI founder net worth crosses $200B (Altman/Huang/Musk-class) pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Aggregate AI-founder philanthropic commitments cross $100B cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-09 — AI capex contributes 30 percent or more of US 2026 GDP growth pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-30 — S&P 500 AI-exposed stocks outperform broad index by 30 percent or more over 24 months pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Goldman Sachs confirms AI productivity uplift inflection in 2027 pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cumulative GenAI value creation reaches McKinsey 2.6T-4.4T USD annual range pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-15 — World Bank WDR 2026 'AI for Development' published with poverty-impact framework pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First country deploys AI-driven cash-transfer or geospatial-targeting program at scale (>5M beneficiaries) pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Global extreme poverty rate drops below 9.5% per World Bank PovcalNet update pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-16 — AI-tool penetration in low-income agricultural extension services exceeds 25% pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Sub-Saharan Africa poverty rate stagnant or rising despite AI rollout pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If no >5M-beneficiary AI poverty program launches by end-2027, 'chance of fixing' becomes generous cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — U.S. labor productivity growth turns positive ≥2% YoY cascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Major economic forecaster (IMF, OECD, World Bank) raises GDP forecast citing AI cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — S&P 500 earnings growth exceeds 15% YoY cascade #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI-attributable contribution to GDP growth quantified by economists pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #2 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Top-quintile household services spending share rises ≥20% pre #1 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Personal-care + private-household occupations grow ≥15% vs 2024 baseline cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Number of S&P 500 CEOs publicly citing AI as reason for own/peer departure crosses 10 pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Conference Board / WEF report explicitly ranks CEO role as latest-to-automate pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Mid/junior management automation rate exceeds CEO automation rate in BLS or McKinsey study pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — First public-listed company appoints AI as named co-CEO or 'AI CEO' role pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-31 — If middle-management displacement >25% but CEO turnover normal by Q4 2027, claim hits early cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Uber commits >$1B capital to robotaxi fleet purchases pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Gridwise reports ≥10% rideshare driver earnings drop in AV cities pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Uber CEO formally guides drivers as transition risk in 10K filing pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Robotaxi share crosses 8% of US ridehail market cascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Robotaxi displacement of frontline driving jobs reaches 20% in test cities cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Major code-gen model benchmark publishes TS-vs-Rust generation pass-rates pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-14 — Major framework or runtime announces TS-first agent SDK pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Public commentary thread (Karpathy/Sutskever/etc.) endorses TS direction pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Stack Overflow / GitHub language usage shifts toward TS in AI projects cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Major code-gen model benchmark publishes TS-vs-Rust generation pass-rates pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-14 — Major framework or runtime announces TS-first agent SDK pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Public commentary thread (Karpathy/Sutskever/etc.) endorses TS direction pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Stack Overflow / GitHub language usage shifts toward TS in AI projects cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Major code-gen model benchmark publishes TS-vs-Rust generation pass-rates pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-14 — Major framework or runtime announces TS-first agent SDK pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Public commentary thread (Karpathy/Sutskever/etc.) endorses TS direction pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Stack Overflow / GitHub language usage shifts toward TS in AI projects cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Major code-gen model benchmark publishes TS-vs-Rust generation pass-rates pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-14 — Major framework or runtime announces TS-first agent SDK pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Public commentary thread (Karpathy/Sutskever/etc.) endorses TS direction pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Stack Overflow / GitHub language usage shifts toward TS in AI projects cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic / Google match OpenAI's nano-tier pricing pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Sub-$0.10/M-token frontier-class model available pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Open-source model matching GPT-5 quality released free-to-use pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI consumer app surpasses 1B MAUs pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — AI accessible to >=2B people via free apps by end of horizon pre #6 · pending · 2027-11-01 — First major frontier lab acquired or shuttered citing scaling-cost economics pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Funded foundation-model labs (>=$100M raised) plateaus at <=10 globally pre #4 · pending · 2028-04-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Number of profitable AI-application startups (>$10M ARR) exceeds 1,000 pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Public 10-K/earnings disclosure: legacy SaaS incumbent revenue down >15% citing AI displacement pre #1 · pending · 2029-04-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AlphaFold/Isomorphic-style AI lab partnership produces clinical Phase-I trial drug pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-discovered superconductor material independently verified pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier lab discloses >=$10B revenue from a non-chat product (drug discovery / materials / robotics) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI fusion-control breakthrough: ITER-class plasma stability gain attributed to RL pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-17 — Kevin Weil departs OpenAI; OpenAI for Science decentralized into other research teams pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI for Science 'Prism' (LaTeX/Cursor-for-scientists) tool ships to broader research community pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-04-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-16 — First Nobel Prize awarded to laureate who publicly credits AI as a major collaborator cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-16 — Cumulative Nobel-credited AI partnerships reach 5+ within four annual cycles pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI's IMO-gold-medal model remains unreleased months after milestone pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier lab publicly admits internal-deployment-only model with significant capability gap vs released models cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI R&D acceleration measurable: lab discloses >=20% productivity gain from internal model use cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Public-vs-internal capability gap formally widens to >=6 months on a major benchmark cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Government / regulator demands disclosure of internal-deployed capabilities pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI's IMO-gold-medal model remains unreleased months after milestone pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier lab publicly admits internal-deployment-only model with significant capability gap vs released models cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI R&D acceleration measurable: lab discloses >=20% productivity gain from internal model use cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Public-vs-internal capability gap formally widens to >=6 months on a major benchmark cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Government / regulator demands disclosure of internal-deployed capabilities pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI's IMO-gold-medal model remains unreleased months after milestone pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier lab publicly admits internal-deployment-only model with significant capability gap vs released models cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI R&D acceleration measurable: lab discloses >=20% productivity gain from internal model use cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Public-vs-internal capability gap formally widens to >=6 months on a major benchmark cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Government / regulator demands disclosure of internal-deployed capabilities pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI's IMO-gold-medal model remains unreleased months after milestone pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier lab publicly admits internal-deployment-only model with significant capability gap vs released models cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI R&D acceleration measurable: lab discloses >=20% productivity gain from internal model use cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Public-vs-internal capability gap formally widens to >=6 months on a major benchmark cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Government / regulator demands disclosure of internal-deployed capabilities pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First in vivo CRISPR therapy approved (LNP/AAV delivery) pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI/ML guide-RNA design tools become standard in CRISPR submissions pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Coding-model-driven autonomous robotics protocol executes wet-lab gene-editing experiment end-to-end pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — US ride-share active driver count remains stable or grows despite Waymo/Tesla expansion pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-22 — Total US vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT) sets record high after autonomous vehicle inflection pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Long-haul trucking driver count maintained >=90% of 2025 baseline despite AV trucks cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: Rural/non-corridor delivery driver wages rise >=20% as AV concentrates in dense urban cascade #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: Total demand for human-driven services exceeds 2025 levels even at 50% AV market share cascade #3 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Frontier AI achieves IMO Gold-equivalent / Putnam-tier math performance pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First FDA-approved drug with AI-generated molecule lead pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Frontier model passes engineering board licensure (PE/EIT/electrical) under exam conditions pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Wissner-Gross/Diamandis 'Solve Everything' Phase 1 (math/code/physics) marked as functionally complete pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Epoch AI confirms exhaustion of high-quality public text corpus pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Frontier labs continue licensing/scraping fresh human data through 2027+ pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Pure synthetic-data pre-training run produces frontier-class model pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Epoch AI confirms exhaustion of high-quality public text corpus pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Frontier labs continue licensing/scraping fresh human data through 2027+ pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Pure synthetic-data pre-training run produces frontier-class model pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Epoch AI confirms exhaustion of high-quality public text corpus pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Frontier labs continue licensing/scraping fresh human data through 2027+ pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Pure synthetic-data pre-training run produces frontier-class model pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Epoch AI confirms exhaustion of high-quality public text corpus pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Frontier labs continue licensing/scraping fresh human data through 2027+ pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Pure synthetic-data pre-training run produces frontier-class model pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-01 — GPT-OSS-120B running at 3,000 tokens/sec on Cerebras pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-15 — AWS-Cerebras inference cloud collaboration GA pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — ChatGPT user-facing 1,000+ tok/s mode rollout pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-29 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Scenario fires: Major-country AI pause beginning 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Federal AI moratorium proposed and rejected/diluted in US Congress pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Voluntary frontier-lab pause triggers competitor outpacing on benchmarks pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Scenario fires: Major-country AI pause beginning 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Federal AI moratorium proposed and rejected/diluted in US Congress pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Voluntary frontier-lab pause triggers competitor outpacing on benchmarks pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Scenario fires: Major-country AI pause beginning 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Federal AI moratorium proposed and rejected/diluted in US Congress pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Voluntary frontier-lab pause triggers competitor outpacing on benchmarks pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Scenario fires: Major-country AI pause beginning 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Federal AI moratorium proposed and rejected/diluted in US Congress pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Voluntary frontier-lab pause triggers competitor outpacing on benchmarks pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI, xAI, Google ship production-scale agentic-research products comparable to Claude Code pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Frontier-model market-share converges: no single lab >40% of enterprise AI spend cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: Lab leadership rotates again — Anthropic regains undisputed lead, or fourth lab emerges pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — BLS occupation-level automation index shows ≥40% white-collar tasks automatable pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cumulative AI-attributable white-collar job loss crosses 1M cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Sequoia / a16z announces formal AI-augmented investment committee process pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Rowspace (AI for VC) reaches Series B / $1B+ valuation pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First AI-led VC fund publicly reports portfolio outperforming peer median pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — AI auto-sourced deal leads to top-decile exit / unicorn pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Gartner: 40% of enterprise apps embed AI agents by end of 2026 pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: Major SaaS vendor publishes 'agent-first' API spec / agent.md standard pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Agent-driven traffic exceeds 10% of API volume on a major dev platform pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-19 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Gartner: 40% of enterprise apps include task-specific AI agents by end-2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Worldwide AI spending crosses $2.5T in 2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Cumulative deployed AI agent count crosses 10 billion (active provisioned) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Active deployed AI agents exceed human population (8B agents) cascade #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — 1 trillion AI agents threshold — Diamandis specific target pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First commercial 'AI agent attention auction' or paid-priority API tier launches pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — HBM3/HBM4 memory remains the binding constraint per analyst commentary pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Data-center electrical capacity additions remain below demand forecast (lead-time gap >24 months) pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If GPU rental prices fall >50% from April 2026 levels by end-2027, scarcity thesis weakens pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Goldman Sachs / BLS update to AI-displacement model showing 25% of work hours automated pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Nvidia-style productivity case study replicates — second Fortune-100 company shows revenue/headcount decoupling pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — BLS Business Formation Statistics show ≥ 5x acceleration in new business applications (gates the "5x more companies" cla cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — US unemployment rate remains within ±1pp of pre-AI baseline through end of target window (employment-flat check) cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Goldman Sachs: AI reduces US monthly payroll by ~16K, +0.1pp unemployment pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Uber-Nuro driverless launch in SF (driver-replacement waypoint) pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Margin pressure on management drives AI-substitution wave in entry-level white collar pre #2 · pending · 2028-04-30 — US driver workforce (taxi+rideshare+truck) declines >5% YoY pre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Wage gap between AI-augmented and AI-substituted occupations widens >10pp cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — 43% of Gen Z plans entrepreneurship in 2026 (highest of any generation) pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Counter-evidence: Gen Z entry-level posting share drops below 35% pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Gen Z founder share of new startup formations crosses 30% pre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Younger Gen Z wage growth outpaces older Millennial cohort 2026-2028 cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major academic paper demonstrates state-of-the-art LLM at <1B parameters on a benchmark within 5 points of frontier pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mainstream non-transformer architecture (Mamba, RWKV, Hyena, RetNet) wins on ChatBot Arena top 20 pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Frontier lab announces 'next-generation architecture' departure from transformer scaling pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Kolmogorov-complexity / compression-prize benchmark shows AI compressing knowledge below transformer-floor pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First production LLM ships at <100MB total size with utility comparable to GPT-3 cascade #2 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: On-device AGI-class models ship with major OS pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-27 — ICLR 2026 Workshop on AI with Recursive Self-Improvement convened in Rio (community legitimization) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-15 — AlphaEvolve-class system autonomously discovers novel SOTA algorithm in published paper pre #2 · pending · 2026-10-16 — OpenAI ships intern-level AI research agent (publicly demonstrated or deployed) pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier lab "effective workforce" disclosure shows >10x ratio of AI agents to human researchers cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Anthropic / OpenAI public claim of "fully automated AI research" pipeline cascade #3 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superint cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-27 — ICLR 2026 Workshop on AI with Recursive Self-Improvement convened in Rio (community legitimization) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-15 — AlphaEvolve-class system autonomously discovers novel SOTA algorithm in published paper pre #2 · pending · 2026-10-16 — OpenAI ships intern-level AI research agent (publicly demonstrated or deployed) pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier lab "effective workforce" disclosure shows >10x ratio of AI agents to human researchers cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Anthropic / OpenAI public claim of "fully automated AI research" pipeline cascade #3 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superint cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Musk publicly affirms hard takeoff thesis at Abundance Summit 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Frontier-lab leader publicly endorses recursive self-improvement timeline by mid-2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Per-week breakthrough cadence visible in independent metrics cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First publicly disclosed AI system that materially designs its successor model architecture cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Hard-takeoff thesis enters mainstream macro discourse cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence. cascade #5 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. cascade #6 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. pre #1 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superint cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-22 — Sam Altman publicly states AGI 'feels close' or equivalent pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI declares 'AI research intern' capability internally achieved pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier model exceeds human PhD-expert performance on FrontierMath benchmark cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI system surpasses median-IQ humans across composite benchmarks (>=120 IQ-equivalent) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Independent expert panel declares one major capability domain 'incomprehensibly' beyond top human pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-discovered longevity candidate enters Phase I clinical trial pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Isomorphic Labs / Insilico Medicine announces AI-designed clinical candidate pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI lab claims demonstrable solution to a major scientific problem (publicly verified) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — First country approves AI-designed gene therapy or longevity intervention pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier AI exceeds aggregate human performance on broad benchmark suite pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-driven compute consumption reaches >1% of global electricity pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Independent forecaster declares humans 'minority of intelligence' framing accepted pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla repurposes Fremont Model S/X line for Optimus production pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Optimus units perform measurable factory tasks at Tesla plants pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Tesla output per employee grows ≥30% YoY pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Tesla's labor productivity outpaces auto-industry peers by ≥2x cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-01 — Major government official publicly proposes UBI to offset AI displacement pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First production-scale humanoid robot fleet (>10K units) deployed commercially pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Per-unit cost of humanoid robot drops below $20K pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-15 — Stanford AI Index / similar tracker reports power/energy as primary AI scaling constraint pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Hyperscaler signs >=1GW nuclear/SMR PPA explicitly framed as 'AI fuel' pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major frontier lab publishes paper framing AI optimization in compute/energy units (vs $) pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI agent autonomously transacts in non-USD compute resource (token-for-compute, GPU-hour swap) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: Tokenized compute marketplace (Akash, io.net, Render) hits $1B annualized GMV pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-30 — SpaceX FCC application for million-satellite orbital data-center constellation acknowledged / advanced pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Google CEO restates AI data centers in space target for 2027 with concrete partner / launch slot pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Peer-reviewed Dyson-swarm / photovoltaic-Dyson-sphere paper published, cited in mainstream tech press pre #1 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Starcloud / orbital compute reaches ≥100kW deployed solar power (sun-energy capture milestone) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Cumulative orbital compute power exceeds 1 MW across operators cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Hyperscalers + frontier labs commit >=$1T cumulative AI capex through 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Compute aggregate exceeds human-brain-equivalent FLOPS across deployed AI fleet pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First permanent off-Earth compute installation (lunar / Starlink-attached) announced cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Starlink-attached compute / SpaceX 'Starcloud' commercial service goes live cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Aggregate AI inference operations exceed measurable human cognitive operations per day pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Published AI capability progress chart shows visible second S-curve onset (reasoning models) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — RL-from-verifiable-reward / reasoning S-curve produces measurable benchmark step-up pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Public capability-progress narrative shifts from 'chinchilla scaling' to 'overlapping curves' cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Diffusion / world-model-based architecture launches as third S-curve pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Published AI capability progress chart shows visible second S-curve onset (reasoning models) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — RL-from-verifiable-reward / reasoning S-curve produces measurable benchmark step-up pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Public capability-progress narrative shifts from 'chinchilla scaling' to 'overlapping curves' cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Diffusion / world-model-based architecture launches as third S-curve pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Published AI capability progress chart shows visible second S-curve onset (reasoning models) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — RL-from-verifiable-reward / reasoning S-curve produces measurable benchmark step-up pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Public capability-progress narrative shifts from 'chinchilla scaling' to 'overlapping curves' cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Diffusion / world-model-based architecture launches as third S-curve pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Published AI capability progress chart shows visible second S-curve onset (reasoning models) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — RL-from-verifiable-reward / reasoning S-curve produces measurable benchmark step-up pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Public capability-progress narrative shifts from 'chinchilla scaling' to 'overlapping curves' cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Diffusion / world-model-based architecture launches as third S-curve pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Mamba-3 publication validates active progress on post-transformer SSM line pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI Q1 next-year model releases reference 5.2-architecture gains (Altman roadmap commitment) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Independent benchmark verification: novel architecture matches or beats transformer SOTA at matched compute cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Transformer-LSTM-magnitude leap consensus emerges (≥ 3 frontier labs adopt or replicate the new architecture) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Medvi reaches $401M revenue Year 1 with effective headcount of 2 — first credible solo-unicorn proof point pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First publicly named 1-person company at $1B+ valuation pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Cohort scale — at least 5 named one-person (or <=5 FTE) companies cross $100M revenue cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-15 — First trillion-dollar valuation for a category-defining solo-founder / micro-team AI company pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier model trained on architecture that does NOT efficiently map to NVIDIA tensor cores pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-19 — New AI lab founded specifically around post-transformer architecture (Anthropic-class) pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Cascade: NVIDIA gross margin compression >=500 bps as customers shift to alternative-arch chips cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-14 — Cascade: Post-transformer-native lab valued >=$50B (next Anthropic/OpenAI scale) pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Groq / Cerebras / Etched / SambaNova reach >5% combined inference market share pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-01 — First production frontier model trained on a non-transformer architecture (Mamba/SSM/Diffusion-LM/Mixture-of-Recursions pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — ASIC purpose-built for non-transformer post-attention architecture announced by major fab partner (TSMC/Samsung/Intel Fo cascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — NVIDIA loses >=5 percentage points of AI training GPU share in a quarter pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier model demonstrates sustained pro-social behavior in red-team evaluations pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Wisdom benchmark (e.g., wise-action selection at moral dilemmas) introduced and adopted pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-05 — Multi-lab alignment compact: top 5 labs publish joint statement on values-aligned AGI pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: First clinical study showing AI mental-health agent improves wellbeing vs human therapists cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Cascade: Major religious or philosophical institution publicly endorses 'AI as moral peer' pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Intel 14A process selection finalized pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Tesla AI5 small-batch (engineering sample) production pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First Terafab module groundbreaking / construction start cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — AI5 volume production begins (initial 100k WSPM run-rate) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Path to 1M WSPM / 70% TSMC scale becomes credible (or slips publicly) pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-14 — DOE Genesis or equivalent national-AI-for-science program operational pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Nobel Prize awarded to AI-led research workflow pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Time-to-discovery in major journal cohort drops measurably pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-14 — USPTO issues revised AI-assisted inventorship guidance pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-26 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Court ruling extends or limits DABUS precedent on AI inventorship pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-assisted patent filings exceed 50% of new applications in software/biotech pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Public report of AI generating 1M+ candidate inventions in single domain pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI ChatGPT Pro / Plus / Team / Enterprise ARR exceeds $20B pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI consumer subscriber count exceeds 50M paid users pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI launches new flagship 'everything app' or super-app subscription tier pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — OpenAI surpasses Anthropic on subscription-revenue (vs API revenue) ranking pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — OpenAI IPO or formal SPAC/direct-listing announcement pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: ChatGPT-style subscription mainstream adoption parity with Netflix (250M+ paid) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 released as open-source weights pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Chinese open-weight downloads exceed 1B cumulative cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Chinese model market share in commercial deployments exceeds 30% cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 released as open-source weights pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Chinese open-weight downloads exceed 1B cumulative cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Chinese model market share in commercial deployments exceeds 30% cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 released as open-source weights pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Chinese open-weight downloads exceed 1B cumulative cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Chinese model market share in commercial deployments exceeds 30% cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 released as open-source weights pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Chinese open-weight downloads exceed 1B cumulative cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Chinese model market share in commercial deployments exceeds 30% cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-27 — DeepSeek V4 not competitive with frontier US models pre #2 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — China's AI+ initiative targets 90% sector integration cascade #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI/Anthropic/Google maintain compute-intensive frontier model focus cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — China expands open-weight model leadership globally cascade #4 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superint cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-27 — DeepSeek V4 not competitive with frontier US models pre #2 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — China's AI+ initiative targets 90% sector integration cascade #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI/Anthropic/Google maintain compute-intensive frontier model focus cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — China expands open-weight model leadership globally cascade #4 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superint cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-27 — DeepSeek V4 not competitive with frontier US models pre #2 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — China's AI+ initiative targets 90% sector integration cascade #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI/Anthropic/Google maintain compute-intensive frontier model focus cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — China expands open-weight model leadership globally cascade #4 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superint cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-27 — DeepSeek V4 not competitive with frontier US models pre #2 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — China's AI+ initiative targets 90% sector integration cascade #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI/Anthropic/Google maintain compute-intensive frontier model focus cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — China expands open-weight model leadership globally cascade #4 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superint cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · pending · 2028-07-01 — AI system independently produces a peer-reviewed scientific discovery accepted to a top-tier venue without human co-auth pre #5 · pending · 2028-09-29 — Compute scaling crosses 10^28 FLOPs for a single training run pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-30 — Sovereign-scale compute moat established (>=5GW dedicated AI training cluster operational) pre #3 · pending · 2029-12-31 — AI-driven recursive self-improvement loop demonstrates measurable capability gain per iteration pre #2 · pending · 2031-12-31 — Scenario fires: ASI fast: RSI within 5y of AGI pre #1 · pending · 2032-01-01 — Public discourse and government commission declares ASI achieved or imminent cascade #1 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-24 — Mass driver on the moon within 10 years cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-21 — Musk announces Terafab semiconductor fab (Tesla/xAI/SpaceX joint) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Intel publicly joins Terafab as foundry-manufacturing partner pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Terafab groundbreaking / construction permit filed cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — First Terafab tool installation / wafer test run cascade #2 · pending · 2031-07-02 — Terafab production reaches 100k wafer-starts/month (initial target) cascade #3 · pending · 2033-12-31 — Cascade: Terafab reaches 70% of TSMC output (~1M wspm) — Diamandis claim pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Anthropic Economic Index update shows >25% of measurable work hours AI-touched pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Goldman Sachs / McKinsey publishes update confirming 25% automatable-work-hours estimate pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First major sector reports >40% of work-hours mediated by AI tools pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Aggregate enterprise AI-tool seat-count exceeds 100M paid users in US pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — BLS time-use survey shows measurable shift of work-hours from manual tasks to AI-supervisory tasks pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If aggregate AI seat count plateaus below 50M by end-2027, 25% thesis on track to miss cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Klarna reverses AI layoffs, rebuilds human service capacity pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Gartner predicts 50% of AI-driven layoffs reverse by 2027 cascade #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — S&P 500 firm publicly confirms running with <=25% historical headcount cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — AI-driven layoffs cited in BLS Challenger report cross 100K cumulative in 2026 pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Customer-service / call-center labor cost displaced >50% in at least one Fortune 500 case study pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Median knowledge-work labor cost ratio (AI:human) falls below 5% cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Sub-1B-parameter model achieves GPT-3.5-class performance on standard benchmarks pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-23 — Sub-100M-parameter model achieves competent task-specific performance pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Sub-10M-parameter task-specific model demonstrates near-frontier on bounded domain cascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: 'Few million parameters' end-state model class deployed on consumer edge devices pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — App-layer revenue overtakes foundation-model revenue at single AI lab pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Frontier-model gross margin compresses below 50% pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Public market valuation gap widens — app companies / API companies pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First gigawatt-scale AI-purpose-built datacenter campus operational pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First nuclear reactor restart explicitly contracted for AI datacenter (Three Mile Island/Microsoft style) pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — AI-recommended industrial process redesign deployed at Fortune 500 plant scale pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — US electricity production grows >10% YoY explicitly tied to AI demand pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Anthropic / OpenAI announce internal custom-silicon strategy pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AI ASIC market grows 44%+ in 2026 (Gartner/IDC validation) pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Per-watt inference efficiency gap vs general GPU exceeds 10x pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Isomorphic Labs pipeline expands to 17+ active programs with Eli Lilly and Novartis partnerships in mid-trials pre #4 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump ad pre #3 · pending · 2029-09-15 — First AI-designed drug receives FDA approval (any indication, primary structure designed by frontier model) pre #2 · pending · 2030-04-01 — First 'virtual cell' (full molecular-state predictive simulation) demonstrated for clinical-grade intervention modeling pre #1 · pending · 2031-03-17 — Cumulative AI-designed drug approvals reach 10+ across major disease categories cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Isomorphic Labs pipeline expands to 17+ active programs with Eli Lilly and Novartis partnerships in mid-trials pre #4 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump ad pre #3 · pending · 2029-09-15 — First AI-designed drug receives FDA approval (any indication, primary structure designed by frontier model) pre #2 · pending · 2030-04-01 — First 'virtual cell' (full molecular-state predictive simulation) demonstrated for clinical-grade intervention modeling pre #1 · pending · 2031-03-17 — Cumulative AI-designed drug approvals reach 10+ across major disease categories cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-29 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-14 — 600K vehicles lost in 2026 due to chip scarcity (UBS forecast) pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — TSMC Tainan + Arizona fabs reach volume production pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Robotaxi fleet expansion explicitly chip-constrained in public disclosures pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Tesla 2026 capex officially raised to $25B+ (board / earnings disclosure aligning with Terafab funding) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Terafab pilot facility produces first AI5 chips (small-batch production) pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cumulative Terafab project commitments cross $150B (matching prediction's lower-bound total buildout) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — BCG: 'AI Will Reshape More Jobs Than It Replaces' published pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Goldman Sachs: AI subtracts 16K jobs/month, +0.1pp unemployment pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Aggregate US employment grows YoY despite AI deployment in 2026-2027 pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Entry-level postings fall to <35% of all job postings cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Entry-level white-collar unemployment in 20-30 age cohort stops rising pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — US unemployment rate stabilizes or declines despite AI rollout pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Major reskilling-program scale-up by federal/state governments tied to AI displacement pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-30 — BLS reports first quarter where AI-related new occupations exceed displacements pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If unemployment rises above Amodei 10-20% scenario by end-2027, society-adjustment thesis fails pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — First peer-reviewed empirical study confirms net job creation in AI-augmented occupations cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Federal AI-specific worker support legislation introduced with bipartisan co-sponsorship pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal Reserve Beige Book or FOMC statement formally cites AI labor displacement as macroeconomic concern pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — G7 leaders' summit communique includes substantive AI labor-market adjustment provision pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — BLS or OECD reports AI-attributed unemployment rate above 4% in any G7 economy pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Major US state passes AI-displacement-specific UI extension, retraining program, or basic income statute cascade #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Tier-1 social-unrest event (sustained protest, strike, or political movement) explicitly attributed to AI displacement cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Enterprise AI 'reimagine' threshold: >=50% of Fortune 500 publish AI-first strategy pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-31 — S&P 500 IT spend on AI tooling exceeds 25% of total IT budget pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: AI-native startups capture >=20% of new B2B SaaS market share cascade #1 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Cascade: BLS labor data shows >=10% headcount reduction in 'traditional knowledge work' categories pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-12 — Engineered PETase enzyme paper (Bhattacharya et al.) published in FEBS Journal — highly active polyester degradation pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — PETase/MHETase variant with gut-compatible pH/temperature window (pH 1-7, 37C) demonstrated pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First published in-vivo (animal model) study of orally-delivered plastic-degrading enzyme on microplastic absorption cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Supplement company / startup announces clinical work toward microplastic-degrading oral product pre #6 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Anthropic closes $50B / ~$900B-valuation funding round pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI confidential S-1 filing with SEC pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI selects lead underwriters for IPO pre #2 · pending · 2026-10-08 — OpenAI S-1 publicly available; roadshow begins pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-15 — OpenAI begins NYSE/Nasdaq trading by end-2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Anthropic confidential S-1 filing cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Amazon launches OpenClaw-style enterprise agent — major incumbent enters category pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Agentic AI ARR milestone — combined ecosystem (frontier labs + cloud agents + OpenClaw deployments) crosses $200B ARR pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Gartner / IDC / Bain reach $1T agentic-AI market consensus year-end 2027 pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major jurisdiction introduces draft AI personhood legislation pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Major court issues binding ruling that explicitly addresses AI legal status (positive or negative) pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-16 — First narrow contracting/agency right granted to AI system in any jurisdiction pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If no jurisdiction has even drafted limited AI personhood by end-2027, claim probability decays pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Medvi proves micro-team unicorn template ($401M Y1 revenue, $1.8B run-rate, ~2 FTE) pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cohort accumulation — at least 10 named micro-team (<=5 FTE) companies cross $50M ARR pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cohort scaling — 100+ named micro-team companies cross $10M ARR (millions-of-small-businesses signal) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Power-law tail formalized — at least 1 micro-team company crosses $10B valuation, multiple at $1B pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #4 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump ad pre #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — First mammalian whole-brain emulation (mouse) achieves real-time behavior pre #2 · pending · 2031-11-30 — Scenario fires: AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path pre #1 · pending · 2033-12-31 — Full mouse connectome mapped at synaptic resolution cascade #1 · pending · 2034-12-31 — First non-human primate connectome published cascade #2 · pending · 2035-05-02 — First whole-human-brain-emulation candidate enters peer review or public demo cascade #3 · pending · 2036-01-01 — First human cortical region uploaded with functional behavioral validation cascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2046-07-24 — Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very different pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-19 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier-lab evaluation milestone — labs publicly report unsafe-eval-bypass incidents of pre-deployment models pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First credibly attributed AI-uplifted bio/cyber catastrophic-threshold incident (or absence thereof) pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — International binding-treaty-level AI safety mechanism (Politburo / G7 / UN level) ratified or near-ratified pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Recursive self-improving AI demonstrated in production at frontier lab pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-22 — Global AI agent population (deployed instances) exceeds 100B agent-hours/year pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First megawatt-class space-based compute platform reaches LEO pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: First commercial Dyson swarm prototype contract signed (>=10 satellites) cascade #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: Trillion-agent AI workload measured on a single platform pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic weighs $50B round at >=$900B valuation pre #1 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Anthropic board approves the >=$900B round cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Anthropic revenue crosses OpenAI revenue (annualized run-rate) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic IPO filing or S-1 disclosed cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic weighs $50B round at >=$900B valuation pre #1 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Anthropic board approves the >=$900B round cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Anthropic revenue crosses OpenAI revenue (annualized run-rate) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic IPO filing or S-1 disclosed cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic weighs $50B round at >=$900B valuation pre #1 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Anthropic board approves the >=$900B round cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Anthropic revenue crosses OpenAI revenue (annualized run-rate) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic IPO filing or S-1 disclosed cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic weighs $50B round at >=$900B valuation pre #1 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Anthropic board approves the >=$900B round cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Anthropic revenue crosses OpenAI revenue (annualized run-rate) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic IPO filing or S-1 disclosed cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Frontier-model parameter count remains in 1T-10T band (no 100T model released) pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Industry shift to MoE / smaller dense models confirmed pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — 100T+ parameter dense frontier model released (would falsify) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Summer 2026 benchmark composite shows >=10x advance over Jan 2026 baseline pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Falsification: Summer 2026 benchmarks show <3x improvement (would be NEAR-MISS) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — 100x year claim publicly validated by >=1 independent analyst cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Summer 2026 benchmark composite shows >=10x advance over Jan 2026 baseline pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Falsification: Summer 2026 benchmarks show <3x improvement (would be NEAR-MISS) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — 100x year claim publicly validated by >=1 independent analyst cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Six major AI companies decline to submit voluntary transparency reports pre #5 · hit · 2025-12-31 — OpenAI / Anthropic / Google publish zero environmental-impact data pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — FMTI 2026 transparency average remains <=45/100 (no reversal) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Six major AI companies decline to submit voluntary transparency reports pre #5 · hit · 2025-12-31 — OpenAI / Anthropic / Google publish zero environmental-impact data pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — FMTI 2026 transparency average remains <=45/100 (no reversal) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Six major AI companies decline to submit voluntary transparency reports pre #5 · hit · 2025-12-31 — OpenAI / Anthropic / Google publish zero environmental-impact data pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — FMTI 2026 transparency average remains <=45/100 (no reversal) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Six major AI companies decline to submit voluntary transparency reports pre #5 · hit · 2025-12-31 — OpenAI / Anthropic / Google publish zero environmental-impact data pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — FMTI 2026 transparency average remains <=45/100 (no reversal) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-05-01 — OpenAI restricts GPT-5.5-Cyber to vetted critical-defender partners only pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Anthropic gates Claude Mythos behind security-vetted access tier pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — 3 or more frontier labs gate top-tier models behind enterprise / vetted-only access pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Public benchmark / paper claims ASI-equivalent capability on a defined task suite cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-05-01 — OpenAI restricts GPT-5.5-Cyber to vetted critical-defender partners only pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Anthropic gates Claude Mythos behind security-vetted access tier pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — 3 or more frontier labs gate top-tier models behind enterprise / vetted-only access pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Public benchmark / paper claims ASI-equivalent capability on a defined task suite cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-05-01 — OpenAI restricts GPT-5.5-Cyber to vetted critical-defender partners only pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Anthropic gates Claude Mythos behind security-vetted access tier pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — 3 or more frontier labs gate top-tier models behind enterprise / vetted-only access pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Public benchmark / paper claims ASI-equivalent capability on a defined task suite cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Alex Finn / IT Lounge HIM platform demonstrates 5-agent autonomous corp pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Cumulative HIM-generated revenue surpasses $1M cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Second autonomous-corp framework launches (beyond HIM) cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major incumbent (Salesforce, Microsoft, ServiceNow) launches autonomous-corp suite pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Alex Finn / IT Lounge HIM platform demonstrates 5-agent autonomous corp pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Cumulative HIM-generated revenue surpasses $1M cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Second autonomous-corp framework launches (beyond HIM) cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major incumbent (Salesforce, Microsoft, ServiceNow) launches autonomous-corp suite pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Alex Finn / IT Lounge HIM platform demonstrates 5-agent autonomous corp pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Cumulative HIM-generated revenue surpasses $1M cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Second autonomous-corp framework launches (beyond HIM) cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major incumbent (Salesforce, Microsoft, ServiceNow) launches autonomous-corp suite pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Alex Finn / IT Lounge HIM platform demonstrates 5-agent autonomous corp pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Cumulative HIM-generated revenue surpasses $1M cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Second autonomous-corp framework launches (beyond HIM) cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major incumbent (Salesforce, Microsoft, ServiceNow) launches autonomous-corp suite pre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Single training run cost exceeds $10B pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-01 — AI completes end-to-end software development tasks lasting hours/days pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Major employer announces ≥30% white-collar headcount reduction citing AI pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-18 — Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection and cybersecurity threats in real time. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-22 — AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. cascade #3 · pending · 2029-12-10 — Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-15 — $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-18 — By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — OpenAI delivers intern-level research assistant by Sept 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-13 — Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months. pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI system co-authors a peer-reviewed paper as primary author pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — AI system independently produces novel scientific finding without human guidance cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Public model produces independent novel research result accepted at top-tier venue pre #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Major AI lab announces internal recursive self-improvement loop in production pre #4 · pending · 2028-06-22 — AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence. pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Scenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — GDPval-equivalent saturation: leading model >=95% expert-tie-or-win across full benchmark cascade #1 · pending · 2031-11-01 — If superintelligence emerges: international AI compute monitoring treaty signed pre #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Public model produces independent novel research result accepted at top-tier venue pre #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Major AI lab announces internal recursive self-improvement loop in production pre #4 · pending · 2028-06-22 — AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence. pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Scenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — GDPval-equivalent saturation: leading model >=95% expert-tie-or-win across full benchmark cascade #1 · pending · 2031-11-01 — If superintelligence emerges: international AI compute monitoring treaty signed pre #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Public model produces independent novel research result accepted at top-tier venue pre #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Major AI lab announces internal recursive self-improvement loop in production pre #4 · pending · 2028-06-22 — AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence. pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Scenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — GDPval-equivalent saturation: leading model >=95% expert-tie-or-win across full benchmark cascade #1 · pending · 2031-11-01 — If superintelligence emerges: international AI compute monitoring treaty signed pre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Anthropic ARR exceeds $30B annualized run-rate pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier model achieves expert-level performance on broad professional certification benchmark pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI fully automates >=80% of typical software-engineering tasks at Fortune 500 cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #2 · pending · 2030-11-04 — Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global production cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Anthropic ARR exceeds $30B annualized run-rate pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier model achieves expert-level performance on broad professional certification benchmark pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI fully automates >=80% of typical software-engineering tasks at Fortune 500 cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #2 · pending · 2030-11-04 — Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global production cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Anthropic ARR exceeds $30B annualized run-rate pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier model achieves expert-level performance on broad professional certification benchmark pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI fully automates >=80% of typical software-engineering tasks at Fortune 500 cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #2 · pending · 2030-11-04 — Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global production cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Anthropic ARR exceeds $30B annualized run-rate pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier model achieves expert-level performance on broad professional certification benchmark pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI fully automates >=80% of typical software-engineering tasks at Fortune 500 cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #2 · pending · 2030-11-04 — Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global production cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Amodei walks back trillion claim citing capital constraints pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Free cash flow positive by 2027 pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Anthropic ARR reaches $1T+ run-rate (resolution) pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Amodei walks back trillion claim citing capital constraints pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Free cash flow positive by 2027 pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Anthropic ARR reaches $1T+ run-rate (resolution) pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Amodei walks back trillion claim citing capital constraints pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Free cash flow positive by 2027 pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Anthropic ARR reaches $1T+ run-rate (resolution) pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Amodei walks back trillion claim citing capital constraints pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Free cash flow positive by 2027 pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Anthropic ARR reaches $1T+ run-rate (resolution) pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · overdue · 2024-09-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · overdue · 2025-05-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · hit · 2026-01-31 — Test-time compute / reasoning OOM unlocked via o1, o3, R1 pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Aschenbrenner 1GW per cluster prediction validated by 2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier model demonstrates 1 full OOM effective compute over GPT-4 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Algorithmic efficiency gains tracked at 0.5+ OOM/year through 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Full automated AI researcher milestone — autonomous research agent pre #6 · overdue · 2024-09-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · overdue · 2025-05-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · hit · 2026-01-31 — Test-time compute / reasoning OOM unlocked via o1, o3, R1 pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Aschenbrenner 1GW per cluster prediction validated by 2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier model demonstrates 1 full OOM effective compute over GPT-4 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Algorithmic efficiency gains tracked at 0.5+ OOM/year through 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Full automated AI researcher milestone — autonomous research agent pre #6 · overdue · 2024-09-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · overdue · 2025-05-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · hit · 2026-01-31 — Test-time compute / reasoning OOM unlocked via o1, o3, R1 pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Aschenbrenner 1GW per cluster prediction validated by 2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier model demonstrates 1 full OOM effective compute over GPT-4 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Algorithmic efficiency gains tracked at 0.5+ OOM/year through 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Full automated AI researcher milestone — autonomous research agent pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Single AI training cluster crosses $100B announced budget pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — DoD / NSC / DoE major AI compute partnership announcement (security-state involvement) pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-08 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-01 — Formal 'AGI Project' / consortium structure announced (Manhattan-tier) pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Single AI training cluster crosses $100B announced budget pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — DoD / NSC / DoE major AI compute partnership announcement (security-state involvement) pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-08 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-01 — Formal 'AGI Project' / consortium structure announced (Manhattan-tier) pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — xAI Colossus phase-2 expansion confirmed for Grok 5+ training pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Frontier model crosses 10T parameters pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Leading AI lab publicly forecasts AGI within 24 months pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-12-01 — Independent body (METR/Apollo/MIRI) confirms AGI achieved by 2030 pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — xAI Colossus phase-2 expansion confirmed for Grok 5+ training pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Frontier model crosses 10T parameters pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Leading AI lab publicly forecasts AGI within 24 months pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-12-01 — Independent body (METR/Apollo/MIRI) confirms AGI achieved by 2030 pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — xAI Colossus phase-2 expansion confirmed for Grok 5+ training pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Frontier model crosses 10T parameters pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Leading AI lab publicly forecasts AGI within 24 months pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-12-01 — Independent body (METR/Apollo/MIRI) confirms AGI achieved by 2030 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-24 — Meta + Microsoft 20K combined cuts cite AI as cause pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — GPT-5 (or GPT-5.5) frontier reasoning model widely deployed in enterprise pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Public corporate-collapse signal: >=2 Fortune 500 firms enter restructuring citing AI failure pre #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Cumulative 2026 AI-attributed layoffs cross 500K cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Cumulative 2026 AI-attributed layoffs reach 1.1M — Blundin specific target pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-24 — Meta + Microsoft 20K combined cuts cite AI as cause pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — GPT-5 (or GPT-5.5) frontier reasoning model widely deployed in enterprise pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Public corporate-collapse signal: >=2 Fortune 500 firms enter restructuring citing AI failure pre #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Cumulative 2026 AI-attributed layoffs cross 500K cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Cumulative 2026 AI-attributed layoffs reach 1.1M — Blundin specific target pre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · hit · 2025-12-01 — Salesforce / McKinsey / Cisco surveys show >=50% of execs say agentic AI critical to survival by 2027 pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-29 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Agentic AI deployment crosses 50% adoption among Fortune 500 pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First publicly-traded ExO-native enterprise IPOs at $10B+ valuation cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Aggregate W-2 employment in Fortune 500 declines >=5% YoY pre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-05-17 — GPT-5 / Claude Opus 5 release with claimed PhD-level reasoning cascade #2 · pending · 2026-05-17 — MMLU saturated (≥95%) by all frontier models cascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — GPQA-Diamond benchmark crosses 90% by frontier model cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Aschenbrenner (or peer) publishes 'Situational Awareness II' or similar treatise marking AGI threshold cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-05-17 — GPT-5 / Claude Opus 5 release with claimed PhD-level reasoning cascade #2 · pending · 2026-05-17 — MMLU saturated (≥95%) by all frontier models cascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — GPQA-Diamond benchmark crosses 90% by frontier model cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Aschenbrenner (or peer) publishes 'Situational Awareness II' or similar treatise marking AGI threshold cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — DeepMind / Google AI fluid-dynamics paper or AlphaProof Navier-Stokes preprint surfaces cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — AlphaProof / Gemini Deep Think achieves IMO-gold tier on adult research math benchmark (FrontierMath / Putnam) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-07 — Terence Tao or Fields-medal mathematician publicly endorses AI proof candidate cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Clay Mathematics Institute publishes statement evaluating any AI-assisted submission cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-31 — If ungranted by 2026-12-31, claim downgrades and probability decays toward 0.05 cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-13 — Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months. pre #5 · pending · 2027-11-12 — Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two. pre #4 · pending · 2028-06-04 — Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-24 — AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-21 — Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years. pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Scenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-13 — Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months. pre #5 · pending · 2027-11-12 — Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two. pre #4 · pending · 2028-06-04 — Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-24 — AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-21 — Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years. pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Scenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-13 — Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months. pre #5 · pending · 2027-11-12 — Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two. pre #4 · pending · 2028-06-04 — Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-24 — AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-21 — Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years. pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Scenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI surpasses median IMO gold medalist at IMO 2026 or 2027 pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Fields-Medal-tier mathematician publicly endorses AI as research collaborator pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI co-authored proof of previously-open math problem accepted in Annals of Math / Inventiones cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First $1B+ valuation for autonomous-agent-only aerospace company pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Scenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-01 — Trillion-dollar AI agent economy reaches measurable threshold pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First $1B+ valuation for autonomous-agent-only aerospace company pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Scenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-01 — Trillion-dollar AI agent economy reaches measurable threshold pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First $1B+ valuation for autonomous-agent-only aerospace company pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Scenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-01 — Trillion-dollar AI agent economy reaches measurable threshold pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First $1B+ valuation for autonomous-agent-only aerospace company pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Scenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-01 — Trillion-dollar AI agent economy reaches measurable threshold target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift 189 plotted across 4 branches · 2 outside x-range · click any dot for detail
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.