0 25 50 75 100 history 230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis ✓ 238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now ✓ 240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months ✓ AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake ✓ 238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) ✓ CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20 ✓ AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o ✓ 240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 ✓ FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna ✓ AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en ✓ 242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission ✓ 244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years ✓ 241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation ✓ 229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne ✓ IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct ✓ SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S ✓ SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil ✓ SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on ✓ 232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti ✓ 241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom ✓ AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓ 234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 ✓ 242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license ✓ 233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra ✓ CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val ✓ 246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers). ✓ 238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) ✓ 247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston ✓ AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using ✓ IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do ✓ AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓ CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la ✓ AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c ✓ CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba ✓ 247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial ✓ 235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). ✓ 245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE ✓ CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o ✓ 246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. ✓ FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain- ✓ ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin ✓ ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU ✓ INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva ✓ INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula ✓ SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f ✓ SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. ✓ INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n ✓ 229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. ✓ 248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. ✓ 248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. ✓ ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence- ✓ CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to ✓ 235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. ✓ SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc ✓ SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f ✓ 237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca ✓ 238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days ✓ 232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. ✓ 241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long ✓ 245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed ✓ SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme ✓ 248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. ✓ SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200 ✓ 229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. ✓ CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re ✓ CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi ✓ CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr ✓ SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate ✓ INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup ✓ INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor ✓ SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. ✓ SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying ✓ SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓ SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu ✓ SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual ✓ 231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. ✗ 231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. ✗ 235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. ✗ 244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years ◐ 239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world ◐ INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol ◐ 232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani ◐ 236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours ◐ SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad ◐ AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey ◐ 238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi ◐ 231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. ◐ CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐ 246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. ◐ AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree ◐ 246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). ◐ 247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently ◐ 245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus ◐ INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn ◐ INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat ◐ 246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. ◐ INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob ◐ SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se ◐ ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar ◐ INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await ◐ SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr ◐ INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive ◐ SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐ SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na ◐ SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u ◐ SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast ◐ SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10 ◐ SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci ◐ CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go ◐ INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — ◐ INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight ◐ INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive ◐ SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a ◐ Jan 2026 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2027 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2028 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2029 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2030 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2031 Feb Mar Apr May Jun today pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour cadence (24x throughput vs January) pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Cumulative humanoid robot deployments cross 100,000 units globally pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Humanoid unit price falls below $30K (SUV-equivalent threshold) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Humanoid robot sector annual revenue crosses $10B (still <0.05% of $50T claim) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-08-31 — Humanoid TAM addressable wages reach $1T annual run-rate (revenue capture stage) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Top-5 SaaS vendor publicly confirms seat-compression revenue impact >20% pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Top-10 SaaS sector aggregate revenue contracts YoY pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Major SaaS bankruptcy or take-private under AI-disruption pressure cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — FTC concludes Microsoft-OpenAI antitrust probe with binding action pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Antitrust-driven minority-stake or partnership-cap rule on AI investments pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Big 5 (MSFT/GOOG/META/AMZN/AAPL) combined AI-segment revenue crosses $500B pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-14 — Major divestiture or structural separation imposed on hyperscaler cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2025-01-21 — OpenAI announces $500B Stargate Project (5x stated $100B spend) pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-15 — OpenAI raises $122B Series funding round at ~$852B valuation pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — OpenAI confidential S-1 filing with SEC cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI annualized revenue crosses $30B run-rate cascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-07 — OpenAI IPO pricing/listing at >=$1T valuation cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #5 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Apple OpenELM/DCLM open-weight family expansion past 20 models pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026 pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Apple Private Cloud Compute publicly hosts third-party open-weight models pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Apple market cap returns to top-3 globally and crosses $4T in 2026-2028 window pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2027 cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-17 — Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next. cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-18 — The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity. cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-18 — By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines. cascade #6 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ~$40B run rate as of late April 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Anthropic crosses $100B annualized revenue run rate pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2027 pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Anthropic IPO or public valuation disclosure at $1T+ market cap pre #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Anthropic crosses $300B ARR (intermediate trillion-trajectory check) cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2028-02-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2028-05-01 — First trillion-dollar IPO closes at >$1T fully diluted pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First public company breaches $20T market cap pre #3 · pending · 2028-12-15 — S&P 500 total market cap doubles from 2026 baseline pre #2 · pending · 2029-02-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — First public firm crosses $50T market cap pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-23 — SpaceX public S-1 / prospectus filing on SEC EDGAR pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-11 — SpaceX IPO roadshow begins with retail investor event pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Cascade: SpaceX completes IPO and lists on NYSE/NASDAQ cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — OpenAI IPO target window slips beyond Nov 2026 per CFO statement cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Anthropic files confidential or public S-1 with SEC cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-30 — First company crosses $10T market cap pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2027 pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Top company net income annualized run rate crosses $300B pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-31 — First non-US sovereign or private firm mentioned in $10T speculation pre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — $100T market cap threshold first appears in consensus analyst note cascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — First company crosses $20T market cap pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Digital twin sector funding sees 600%+ YoY surge pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — PE firms raise dedicated AI/digital-transformation funds cascade #2 · hit · 2026-02-25 — Tech M&A boom rolls through 2026 with PE-led AI deals cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — First specific PE-AI digital twin acquisition of mid-cap target cascade #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Portfolio company demonstrates 3-5x cost collapse through AI cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Meta cuts 8,000 employees at $35B+ AI capex (2026 large-cap pivot attempt) pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — ≥3 of top-10 incumbent retailers/banks/automakers go through CEO ouster citing AI strategy failure cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Foundation model release cadence: ≥3 frontier model releases per quarter (cycle <90 days) pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Single-week tech-sector market cap swings ≥$500B become routine (≥4 occurrences in calendar year) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Average startup time-to-$1M-ARR drops below 6 months (vs 30+ months historical) cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI files confidential S-1 with SEC for IPO listing cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Last private secondary or tender at >=$700B post-money valuation cascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — OpenAI announces lead underwriters for IPO cascade #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenAI annualized revenue crosses $30B run-rate cascade #5 · pending · 2026-12-30 — OpenAI prices IPO at >=$1T fully diluted valuation cascade #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: OpenAI listing triggers wave of AI lab IPO filings (Anthropic, xAI, Mistral) pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Hyperscaler custom-silicon deployment crosses majority of new capacity pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Nvidia gross margin guides below 70% for any quarter pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Sustained sell-through despite margin compression (chips-still-sell signal) pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AMD MI400-class or Intel Gaudi-4 wins major hyperscaler order pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Sell-side downgrade specifically citing margin sustainability cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic preempted $50B raise at $850-900B valuation (April 2026) pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Anthropic IPO or first public valuation milestone ($1T+) pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-30 — Quadrillion-dollar valuation framing receives mainstream financial-press coverage pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Frontier-AI sector P/E reaches narrative-extreme multiple (10,000x+ on a major name) cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — OpenAI lists at >=$60B raise / ~$1T valuation pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-15 — First-day pop documented pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — S-1 lock-up period scheduled (typical 180 days) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-28 — First post-IPO earnings release cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-01 — 6-month post-IPO close vs. offer price (pop measurement window closes) cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Nvidia reaches $4.3T market cap, largest in S&P 500 (~7.0% weight) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Hyperscaler AI capex hits $725B annual run rate in 2026 pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — AI sector market cap reaches 50%+ share of US public market cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Musk publicly affirms $100T SpaceX possibility pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — First trillionaire — Musk net worth crosses $1T pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Multi-trillionaire (>=2 individuals at $1T) — cascade cascade #2 · pending · 2035-07-02 — First $100T market cap company — full prediction realization pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — M5 Mac mini launch (consumer local-AI hardware refresh) pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Apple Intelligence developer-API expansion enables third-party local-LLM apps pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Local frontier-class LLM (>=30B params) running interactively on Mac mini-class device cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: Apple regains AI narrative momentum (analyst sentiment / sell-side upgrades) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Cascade: Mac mini becomes mainstream local-AI inference reference platform cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-31 — AI coding tools cut development time by ~50% (industry baseline) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Solo founder Allo (vertical SaaS) targeting $10M ARR in 2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenClaw / Claude Skills / Skills marketplace hits 1K+ active vertical templates cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Documented case: vertical SaaS reaches $5M ARR with <=$200/mo subscription stack cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Solo-founder unicorn ($1B valuation) emerges using AI-only build stack cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Per-seat-priced SaaS revenue contracts at >=2 large public companies pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — SaaS sector net revenue retention drops below 100% in aggregate cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — ≥1 high-profile $1B+ AI-startup failure in 2026 pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — AI-cited job cuts cross 100K cumulative threshold pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-26 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — ≥1 S&P 500 incumbent files Chapter 11 with AI disruption cited pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Anthropic releases additional vertical-workflow plugin (healthcare / accounting / consulting) pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Sector-specific software stock drawdown >10% intraday on plugin-launch day cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic ARR or revenue disclosure shows plugin-driven enterprise acceleration cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-22 — Legal-tech incumbent announces M&A or AI-pivot to defend market share cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Antitrust or congressional inquiry opens into bundled-LLM market disruption cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Major AI lab valuation exceeds Meta's market cap pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Sustained Meta YoY user-growth decline in core Family-of-Apps DAU for >2 quarters pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Major activist investor publicly proposes Meta sale or AI-pivot pre #1 · pending · 2028-04-29 — AI-native company surpasses Meta in advertising-equivalent revenue run-rate cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Anthropic 2026 fiscal-year ARR exit-rate disclosed — checkpoint on '10x in 2026' premise pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Anthropic IPO or pre-IPO valuation crosses $1T pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Anthropic 2027 ARR run-rate vs the 10x trajectory — major variance check cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-16 — Tesla shareholder approval of $1T Musk pay package activates trillion-dollar Optimus tranches pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-26 — By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically usefu pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First $5T market-cap company (Nvidia, Apple, MSFT, or Saudi Aramco) confirmed pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-14 — First $10T market-cap company achieved cascade #1 · pending · 2030-09-15 — First $100T company achieved (event resolves the prediction) cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-31 — First $25-30T company (Musk's Tesla endgame valuation) cascade #3 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Global GDP exceeds $200T nominal (denominator necessary for $100T company plausibility) cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic crosses $50B annualized revenue run rate pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Amazon AWS reaches $200B annualized revenue run rate pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — NVIDIA full-year revenue exceeds $300B with growth slowing pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Anthropic crosses $100B ARR or surpasses OpenAI on revenue cascade #1 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Amazon publishes guidance crossing $1T annual revenue run rate cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: AI-services revenue concentration triggers antitrust review cascade #3 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Nvidia Rubin Ultra (2nm) tape-out and ramp confirmed at TSMC pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — TSMC N2 (2nm) wafer-capacity ramp constrains Nvidia supply cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Nvidia data-center revenue doubles from FY2026 baseline cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Post-Rubin-Ultra Feynman roadmap node confirmed (1.6nm or backside power) cascade #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Nvidia stock multiple compresses post-Rubin Ultra ramp despite growth cascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic crosses $1T valuation in primary or active secondary market pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI completes funding or IPO at >=$1T valuation pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — xAI / SpaceX combined entity valued >=$1T via SpaceX IPO pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Google DeepMind / Alphabet AI segment crosses $1T attributable value cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Fifth lab (Meta SuperIntelligence Labs OR Microsoft AI division) reaches $1T attributable value cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-20 — Anthropic and Amazon disclose new strategic agreement (>$5B incremental investment) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-23 — Anthropic board approves $50B-class private fundraising round at near-trillion valuation cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Cascade: Microsoft-OpenAI relationship publicly strained / repriced post-Anthropic-Amazon deal cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Anthropic confidentially or publicly files S-1 with SEC cascade #3 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Anthropic prices IPO and begins public trading cascade #4 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Cascade: Anthropic IPO valuation at first-day close exceeds $1T cascade #5 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Hyperscaler CapEx exceeds $1T cumulative for 2025-2027 window pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Stargate $400B already-committed crosses $500B fully deployed pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2030-05-17 — 100 GW dedicated AI/data-center load on US grid (cumulative interconnection) cascade #2 · pending · 2030-11-15 — Cascade: $5T cumulative US AI/data-center capital deployed (event horizon) pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · partial · 2026-04-30 — First single company to cross $5T market cap pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla / xAI / SpaceX combined enterprise value crosses $5T pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — SpaceX completes IPO and provides public market-cap anchor cascade #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Optimus / robotaxi commercial revenue ramp validates AI/robotics premium cascade #2 · pending · 2027-04-16 — First single company crosses $10T market cap pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Two S&P 500 companies disclose >20% AI-driven workforce reduction or restructure pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-24 — AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-30 — AI-native unicorn replaces incumbent as category leader by market cap in any S&P sector pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-14 — First Fortune 500 incumbent files Chapter 11 with AI-disruption explicitly cited pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — S&P 500 turnover rate hits >35 entrants/exits annually (vs ~25 historical) cascade #1 · pending · 2031-08-01 — Cascade: McKinsey or BCG publishes 'half of large companies disrupted' framework retrospectively cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-17 — Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity. cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First major sell-side report explicitly modeling AI-driven valuation compression for S&P 500 pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI labor-displacement evidence: BLS reports white-collar employment falls YoY pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Chamath / Sacks publishes follow-up confirming or revising 2-7x compression call pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Mass-incumbent earnings pre-announcement: 3+ S&P 500 companies cut multi-year guidance citing AI competition pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — S&P 500 forward P/E falls below 18x for >6 months cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Cascade: 2x compression actually realized — S&P 500 forward P/E falls to ~11x cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-28 — Activist letters explicitly cite AI labor reduction as value-creation thesis pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Mega-cap multiple compression accelerates (cascade) pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Russell 2000 P/E multiple compresses below 16x while EPS expands pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Russell 2000 small/mid-cap aggregate FCF growth >50% YoY pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — High-labor-share small caps (consulting, staffing, BPO) show triple-digit FCF growth cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · partial · 2026-03-31 — Activist hedge fund publicly uses LLM-generated open letter to public company pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — AI-native activist fund or platform launches pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — SEC clarifies AI-generated 13D / 14a-8 letter authorship requirements cascade #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Hedge-fund cost-structure inverts as AI replaces analyst teams cascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Boards routinely receive AI-drafted shareholder communications volume >10x baseline cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-07 — Q1 2026 Gross Bookings growth ≥17% YoY pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — MAPC growth sustains ≥18% YoY through 2026 pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-15 — Annual gross bookings growth ≥20% for full year 2026 pre #1 · pending · 2028-11-29 — Growth deceleration below 15% on either trips or audience cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-01 — China-US capital markets friction eases (CSRC-SEC PCAOB cooperation continues) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Uber announces material partial monetization of its DiDi stake pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Uber reports DiDi mark-to-market gain >$2B in single quarter pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — DiDi relists on a major exchange (Hong Kong or US re-listing) pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Uber declares special dividend or buyback funded by DiDi proceeds cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Uber AI budget exhausted on adjacent-field bets in 2025 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Uber announces or scales robotaxi partnership in 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-15 — Uber R&D spend grows >20% YoY cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Uber publicly discontinues at least one adjacent-field initiative cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Colossal announces first viable mammoth embryo pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Colossal raises follow-on round at >=$15B valuation (50% step-up) pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First Colossal commercial spinout (Form Bio, Breaking) reaches >=$5B cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Colossal IPO filing OR direct-listing announcement at >=$20B cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-17 — Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX files confidential S-1 with SEC at $2T target valuation pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-26 — SpaceX 2025 revenue confirms $15.6B baseline pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-18 — SpaceX S-1 prospectus made public pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-11 — SpaceX IPO roadshow begins week of June 8, 2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-24 — SpaceX prices IPO and begins trading cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. cascade #3 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #6 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Anthropic files S-1 with SEC cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — OpenAI files S-1 with SEC cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic IPO completes listing cascade #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — OpenAI IPO completes listing cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-01 — AI-IPO retail-demand absorption affecting subsequent listings cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Either OpenAI or Anthropic crosses $1T public-market valuation pre #6 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Anthropic closes $50B / ~$900B-valuation funding round pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI confidential S-1 filing with SEC pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI selects lead underwriters for IPO pre #2 · pending · 2026-10-08 — OpenAI S-1 publicly available; roadshow begins pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-15 — OpenAI begins NYSE/Nasdaq trading by end-2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Anthropic confidential S-1 filing cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-16 — Tesla $2B investment in xAI as Master Plan IV vehicle pre #5 · hit · 2026-01-29 — Bloomberg/Reuters reports Musk weighing SpaceX-Tesla-xAI mega-merger pre #4 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · hit · 2026-02-03 — SpaceX-xAI merger closed at $1.25T combined valuation pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · hit · 2026-05-01 — $573M+ web of related-party transactions disclosed in Tesla 10-K cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Tesla-SpaceX or Tesla-xAI formal merger agreement signed cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Tesla quarterly earnings demonstrate continued financial health (positive FCF, no covenant breaches) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Dan Ives or other major analyst publicly retracts the '80-90% chance SpaceX-Tesla merger by H1 2027' call pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — SpaceX post-IPO operating performance solid (Starlink revenue, Starship cadence) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — End of H1 2027 reached without a Definitive Merger Agreement filed with SEC pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — If merger occurs, accompanying disclosure cites distress or capital need (validating conditional) cascade #1 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · pending · 2029-04-10 — Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship pre #5 · pending · 2029-06-08 — Dyson swarm launchers will not be a SpaceX singleton; many orgs will launch their own. pre #4 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly. pre #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Tesla-SpaceX-xAI combined entity (or aggregate cap-table) reaches $10T pre #2 · pending · 2029-11-08 — Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of pre #1 · pending · 2030-03-12 — Tesla, SpaceX, or xAI individually crosses $5T market cap cascade #1 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-04 — Major analyst coverage characterizes V4 reaction as 'priced in' or 'muted' relative to R1 / V3 pre #1 · pending · 2026-05-30 — Cascade: AI-capex/hyperscaler stocks regain or surpass pre-V4 levels within 30 days post launch cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Cascade: Chinese open-source AI parity narrative becomes consensus, no longer market-moving cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Trump-era endowment-tax pressure on Harvard escalates to credible existential threat pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-31 — Endowment performance benchmark: Harvard endowment underperforms S&P 500 by >5% for two consecutive years pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Activist investor or alumni group publicly demands corporate restructuring of major US university pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major US private university opens formal feasibility study on for-profit / PBC restructuring pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Investment bank or law firm publishes formal valuation analysis of Harvard or peer university as a PBC cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: University-as-PBC framework gains state-level legal recognition cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-06 — Subsequent DeepSeek-style efficiency announcements fail to repeat the January 2025 selloff pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Frequency of algorithmic-efficiency announcements rises (≥5 named events/year) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Single-day market reaction to a 2026 algorithmic-efficiency announcement is <50% of January 2025 magnitude cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — AI-private-company secondary valuations widen vs. revenue multiples pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — AI public-name short interest rises above 5% float on 3+ AI plays pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — AI unicorn down-round or failed raise reported pre #1 · pending · 2026-05-31 — AI sector ETF or basket underperforms SPY by >5% in single month cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-14 — First sustained AI valuation reset (>15% drawdown) on AI-software basket cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Modine (MOD) data-center revenue grows 119% YoY pre #5 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Eaton organic data-center sales 9%+ YoY pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Top 5 'picks-and-shovels' basket gains 3x+ from 2024 baseline cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-23 — SK Hynix Q1 2026 earnings: record operating margin (~72%) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Samsung Q1 2026 memory-driven 8x profit jump cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — SK Hynix / Samsung stock prices set new highs through 2026 Q3 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Samsung HBM4 qualifies into top hyperscaler buyers cascade #3 · hit · 2026-04-23 — Hyperscaler HBM forward-supply commitments extend through 2028 cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-15 — JPMorgan / Citi / UBS publish bullish copper Q2 2026 calls ≥$12,000/t pre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Copper futures cross $5/lb (LME ~$11,000/t) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-08 — BHP/Freeport/Antofagasta Q1 2026 production beats consensus (constrained supply) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Copper futures cross $13,000/t (peak supercycle scenario) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Major mining stock outperforms S&P 500 by ≥30% YTD pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mid-tier foundation model startup goes bankrupt or distressed-sale pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2027 pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2029-01-29 — Major AI consolidation wave: distressed acquisitions accelerate pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026 pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Starlink 2026 revenue exceeds $20B pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Starship V3 / orbital refueling demonstrated (2/3 valuation pillar) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2027 pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-01 — xAI-SpaceX-Tesla three-way combination publicly proposed by Musk or board pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — SpaceX completes traditional IPO without Tesla reverse merger structure (DISCONFIRMING signal) pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Wall Street analyst consensus shifts toward Tesla-SpaceX merger 2027 timeline (Teslarati-cited prediction validated) pre #2 · pending · 2028-05-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2029-01-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%) target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift 63 plotted · 2 outside x-range · click any dot for detail
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.