Cross-Branch Comparison
cache age 352h 36mFor a single prediction, see its conditional probability across every scenario branch. Predictions whose probability varies widely are "scenario-sensitive" — the position is a leveraged bet on which future fires. Flat rows = robust to scenario uncertainty.
Pick a prediction
High-conviction (≥4) predictions with ≥2 ticker exposures
239_003
We are currently in AI hard takeoff
AI · Elon Musk · conv 5/5 · resolves 2026-09
live posterior: 47% (prior 60%)
Scenario range
5.1pp
46% to 51% across 4 scenarios
cache 37 rows · 2026-05-24 04:31 UTC
cf:e20a3cc6aed2
AI pause
mutually exclusive — exactly one branch fires · range 5.1pp
| Scenario | Scenario prob | P(239_003 | scenario) | Δ live |
|---|---|---|---|
S_AI_PAUSE_2026 Major-country AI pause beginning 2026 | 5% | 49% | +1pp |
S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | 10% | 49% | +1pp |
S_AI_PAUSE_2028 AI pause beginning 2028 | 10% | 51% | +3pp |
S_NO_AI_PAUSE_5Y No major AI pause through 2031 | 75% | 46% | -2pp |
What this tells you
- High sensitivity (≥30pp range): this claim's probability swings wildly depending on which future fires. Sizing should be smaller; pair with a hedge that has the opposite sensitivity profile.
- Flat row (≤10pp range): the claim is robust — same probability in good and bad scenarios. A "no-regret" position; you don't need to time the underlying scenario.
- Spike on one branch: a leveraged thesis on a specific scenario. If that scenario's prior shifts, this position re-rates massively.