Cross-Branch Comparison
cache age 350h 32mFor a single prediction, see its conditional probability across every scenario branch. Predictions whose probability varies widely are "scenario-sensitive" — the position is a leveraged bet on which future fires. Flat rows = robust to scenario uncertainty.
Pick a prediction
High-conviction (≥4) predictions with ≥2 ticker exposures
231_013
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.
AI · Alex Wissner-Gross · conv 5/5 · resolves 2027-06
live posterior: 35% (prior 62%)
Scenario range
0.0pp
25% to 25% across 3 scenarios
cache 37 rows · 2026-05-24 04:31 UTC
cf:e20a3cc6aed2
Mars uncrewed
mutually exclusive — exactly one branch fires · range 0.0pp
| Scenario | Scenario prob | P(231_013 | scenario) | Δ live |
|---|---|---|---|
S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | 25% | 25% | -11pp |
S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | 50% | 25% | -11pp |
S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | 25% | 25% | -11pp |
What this tells you
- High sensitivity (≥30pp range): this claim's probability swings wildly depending on which future fires. Sizing should be smaller; pair with a hedge that has the opposite sensitivity profile.
- Flat row (≤10pp range): the claim is robust — same probability in good and bad scenarios. A "no-regret" position; you don't need to time the underlying scenario.
- Spike on one branch: a leveraged thesis on a specific scenario. If that scenario's prior shifts, this position re-rates massively.